Texas Rangers v Toronto Blue Jays

Guys, I actually was asking around this week to scouts, and to front office types, who were telling me that, generally, the relief market is going to be weak this year. A couple names to keep in mind: Jesse Crain of the White Sox has been throwing the ball really well. Casey Janssen, the closer for the Toronto Blue Jays is another guy who is gaining some notice among teams.

Those were the exact words of Buster Olney during the top of the seventh inning of last night’s Sunday Night Baseball telecast of the Braves’ 3-0 win over the Giants, and though they are entirely fucking inoffensive and uncontroversial, why the hell should that stop Jays fans from getting their underthings in a twist about it, as though the club’s management themselves have added Janssen’s name to the Trading Block like they’re some fantasy league owner?

Witness:

Ugh.

Olney, as he explains in the tweet our sad troll friend at the end here was replying to, has said nothing remotely close to “the Blue Jays are looking to trade Casey Janssen.” He simply relays information from “scouts” and “front office types” that Janssen is a guy other teams are going to look at.

I mean… stop the fucking presses, right? How did this become so difficult to grasp?

In print, Olney was able to elaborate a little, but said pretty much the exact same thing last week in a column for ESPN.com (Insider Olney):

If Toronto drifts once and for all, then maybe you could make a deal for Casey Janssen, who could be the focus of a lot of teams looking for bullpen help; he can fill any role, and he is respected for the way he competes, and throws strikes. Janssen has issued just three walks and has 21 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings, and he has a $4 million team option for 2014, which won’t scare anybody away.

Again, nothing crazy whatsoever. Yes, other teams will be looking to acquire talent like Janssen at the deadline, and it makes a whole lot of sense for the Blue Jays– given his friendly contract and the fact that he’s certainly at the peak of his value right now (and had his surgically repaired shoulder cleaned up in the off-season)– to listen. Doesn’t mean they’re shopping him. Doesn’t mean they’re packing it in for 2013 already. Certainly doesn’t mean they’re looking to move him at all costs. It means exactly what it says, and that in a weak relief market they could be in the driver’s seat.

That’s actually, y’know, a good thing. So… uh… maybe simmer the fuck down a little, eh, knife guy?

And frankly, what would have been controversial, and worthy of something close to this much attention, was if– as these fans apparently would have preferred– Olney had reported something along the lines of, other teams are looking at Janssen, but in no way will the Blue Jays ever part with this untouchable core asset.

How incredibly dumb would that be? Yeah, Casey Jannsen has been something of a revelation this season– which is doubly impressive because of the fact that he was a revelation in each of the past two seasons, too– and he’s a reassuring presence at the back of a bullpen for a team that finally looks like it could be turning the corner and may be able to keep this year from being a total fucking washout. If it keeps happening, he’ll be a key part of that turnaround, for sure. But he’s a reliever. And over the last three seasons, in terms of wins above replacement (per FanGraphs), his contribution to the Jays has been less valuable than what Scott Diamond has given the Twins, or the wizardry of Joe Blanton has given his various teams. Janssen has provided less value over than span than Javier Vazquez and Michael Pineda, neither of whom has thrown a big league pitch since 2011.

That’s not at all to say that Janssen is bad– far from it. It’s just the nature of the position doesn’t allow for him to provide the kind of value that people want associate with “lockdown closer” or “core asset.” He’s pitched 141 innings so far in those three seasons– that simply is not enough time on the field for him to provide the kind of value to look at the suggestion of his being traded as something as fucking laughable as the stuff we’ve heard about Jose Bautista from the likes of Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, or Rangers blog The Newberg Report.

I don’t think there’s much of a chance that the Jays move him, but… uh… it’s not like Olney was saying that anyway.

Comments (156)

  1. lol @ fans that tweet sports writers angrily

  2. That @Bluejaysguru is real piece of work. Trolls Drew now Buster. He’s the same punk that has the @RaptorsGuru twitter handle. Most likely a 13 year old that got a new ‘puter’ for his birthday.

    • No, they are the guys who get all their sports info from Sportsnet Magazine, TSN and a few tweeters, The annoying types you talk to at parties when you find out they are Jays, Raptors, whatever fans but they can only name a few players from each team and then mispronounce the names of a few others. To oblivious to realize that there is a plethora of information out there and that is how you form an educated opinion. To oblivious to know that there ARE better informed people out there.

      • YOU try pronouncing Manu Ginobili’s name then

      • If you don’t know what kind of fan they are yet, just ask them a question about the manager. You’ll find out real quick.

        • That’s basically it. Reading through that guys feed is complete nonsense and regurgitation of what others say. Oh, and seems like he enjoys deleting tweets of his when he doesn’t like what’s being written about him.

          But what can you expect from someone who said he was going to get his dad to fire Drew because he worked at Sportsnet. Dumbass didn’t even realized SN didn’t buy the Score web content (just the TV content).

        • Gibbons? Didn’t he get in a fight with that Lilly guy?

  3. Even if the Jays are in the playoff hunt, trading Janssen isn’t exactly insane. Closers tend to be really good for two or three seasons and then they shit the bed with a vengeance. Other than Mariano Rivera and Pig Fucker, off the top of my head, I really can’t name other closers who have been consistent over the past ten years.

  4. I totally agree with this. I obviously think it’s unlikely they move him – and they would only do it for someone that could contribute now, or next year at the latest (like a prospect in AAA, though even that is dicey).

    • … but with how good the bullpen has been, it’s absolutely not crazy to trade from an area of strength, where Janssen is probably the top asset, if they could fill an area of need.

  5. This is why I hate trade season. Ugh.

  6. man, that hypothetical trade for bautista with the rangers looks terrible:

    Alexi Ogando, Justin Grimm, Rougned Odor, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, and Alex Claudio for Jose Bautista, free-agent-to-be Josh Johnson, and Josh Thole.

    just no

  7. I would argue that you may be under stating Janssen’s value. More often than not he is recording his outs in high leverage situations.

    • Especially if you go by Baseball’s Reference standards. Janssen’s been worth 4.7 WAR vs 1.9 for Diamond since the start of 2011 in about half the innings. Even using FanGraphs version of WAR Janssen still ranks 16th among all relievers over that time frame.

      That said, I definitely wouldn’t think twice about trading him if I got the right piece back even if the Jays continue to turn things around. Bullpen depth is the one major strengths of this organization right now and for the foreseeable future. They could certainly use a nice infield prospect or three.

      • Comparing Jannsen to another closer is hard simply because of the opportunties his team gives him to be valueable. The Jays have not exactly been on a winning teear since he took the job, and often when they do win, they are not in save situations.

  8. You’re right – these people should be trolling Buster about his terrible podcast. Bring back Karabell!

    • Amen to that, can’t even listen to Busters version. On Fantasy focus Karabell was talking about a Buster interview on the podcast last week and he called Buster ‘Awesome’ with I swear more than a hint of unintentional bitter sarcasm.

  9. I wonder what kind of return he would warrant? Contending teams get itchy for bullpen help at the deadline.

  10. I think trading Janssen make a hell of a lot of sense, actually.

    The bullpen is an area where we have ridiculous, unforeseen depth. I, for one, am confident that any number of guys could serve as the next closer. And as we get some more pitchers back healthy, we’ve got decisions to make as it is.

    Janssen’s price is as high as it would ever be. And amazing as he’s been — because I really don’t want to take anything away from a Jay who has performed admirably and is also pretty damn likeable — that is a fickle position. Closers are great. And then the suck. Nobodies get thrust in the role and thrive.

    The only problem I would have is that anyone who wants to trade for a closer, probably wouldn’t want to give us back anyone who is MLB ready. And I really wouldn’t want to trade him unless he was getting us a player to help us win in 2014.

  11. “Janssen” is misspelled in the title.

  12. For Olney
    Trolling, trolling, trolling,keep those rumors going.

    So Olney suggests that CJ is the type other teams are looking for?
    And somebody else suggests Buehrle?
    http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/391584-buehrle-on-the-move?eref=sihp
    Wonder if other teams are interested in Bautista,EE or Reyes?
    Sorta overstating the obvious.

  13. Stoete – don’t you think a little bit of deference is owed to THE BlueJaysGuru? He is a guru, after all.

  14. Nothing wrong with him getting noticed, but he’s not going anywhere. The Jays literally have no other options for closer, which is too bad. They could get a pretty penny for him.

    • No other options for closer?
      Delabar is suited for the role.
      So is Cecil.
      Wagner has the stuff.
      Loup .

      • Santos will be back soon. Hell Oliver can be counted on to get three outs in high leverage situations.

        Jansenn has been great, no question. But as others have said, the closer role is such a fickle one. Anybody could come into that role, catch fire and be a revelation just the way Casey assumed the role last year when Santos went down.

        A closer by committee could even work for this Jays team with the way the bullpen has performed so far.

        Not that I want them to trade Casey .. just sayin …

      • Well, you can rule out Loup since he rarely misses bats. Wagner I’m not familiar with, and Delabar has been walking guys far too much. Cecil is your best bet IMO, but I’m skeptical since he hasn’t been lights out for a decent sample size, nor in high-leverage situations.

        • Good closers are always under-appreciated when you have one. Trade Janssen and try and find a palatable replacement. Then you’ll understand why good teams want him.

  15. I actually really like the idea of trading Janssen. Based on stuff, he’s overperformed for the past 2 years (he’s not getting any better) and the Jays have enough decent arms in their pen to make up for losing him. Plus, mid-season, teams tend to overpay for relievers, and a guy like Janssen could probably fetch a decent amount. I’m in.

    • and the Jays have enough decent arms in their pen to make up for losing him

      Except, they don’t.

      • Yeah they do.

        • Have decent arms? Sure. Reliable arms that never walk anyone, and have been doing it for multiple years? Outside of Janssen, no.

          Cecil is probably the best option, if a move was to happen.

          • I think you mean Jansen has been doing this for a year, not years. Also Oliver would like you to know that he was getting outs in the majors before Jansen had finished breast feeding.

            • I’m going by season count, not literal 365 days makes a year. There’s no reason to think Janssen can’t continue to do what he’s been doing.

              • Yes, Janssen is probably the best option in the organization, but I don’t even think I would bet on Janssen being lights out for the next “multiple years”.

                Relievers are too volatile to think “he’s always going to be a great closer” or “no way he would be able to close”, except in a few, specific cases. Santos (when he’s back), Cecil, Delabar, Oliver, Wagner, Loup, Lincoln, Perez….. all of them have the potential to be passable closers.

              • 70 win teams don’t need closers, yo.

                Wait and see how we’re doing in a month before you declare Casey Janssen untouchable..

  16. I had an immediate reaction of “shut up Olney”, probably because I happened to turn that game on at the exact second he was saying it. But when you back away from that knee-jerk reaction, if there’s a really good deal out there, then sure, you have to at least consider it. The two things I wonder are: A) What could you get for him? and B) If you really are going to cash him in, would there be an even better deal available in the off-season?

    • I think it’s tough to hypothesize what the return would be because the Jays likely don’t listen unless it’s an overpay. Trying to peg down how much of an overpay it would take is tricky and can lead to silly suggestions along the way.

  17. Nerds just don’t understand the value of closers. As shitty as things have been (until the last week), just imagine how much shittier they would have been without a stud closer. The Jays are the ONLY team in baseball that is undefeated when leading after 7 innings. That is HUGE. Cecil and Janssen have been 2 of our most valuable players.

  18. And spell his name right.

  19. While is WAR may not be very good his TLFF (True Lad +Fan Favourite) is off the charts! Plus the kid can golf and that goes a long way in the Annual Blue Jays Golf Tourny.

  20. is being excited about a four game sweep too mainstream? or is that post coming next?

    • Haha, agreed.

      And if the twitter masses had supported the idea, there would have been a post shitting on the idea of trading a solid reliever on a team-friendly contract when the rest of the bullpen is (arguably) pitching over their heads.

  21. Brett Cecil could probably handle that spot. He’s getting out Lefties and Righties in key situations, and he also wears glasses.

    But like the post says, that 2014 option is very team-friendly for a guy with that much command. It just doesn’t make sense when AA says he’s not just going for it in 2013, but 2014 as well. Dealing Janssen for what I presume would be young talent that won’t be Bigs-ready by then just doesn’t make sense and does not mesh with that message.

    Now if we’re not contending by trade deadline NEXT year, then it might be more reasonable to have this discussion.

  22. Given how expensive “proven closers” are, and given that the option on Janssen only adds to his value… maybe the Jays *should* be thinking of trading him, even if they’re still in the hunt. I’m not sure who would replace him, but they have until the deadline to figure that out.

  23. This may sound like lunacy, but trade him for a tigers prospect

  24. i concur

  25. WAR isn’t great for measuring the contributions of relievers, eh.

  26. We finally get a closer who is consistent and is doing the job, and you guys are open to the idea of trading him? You can’t say Janssen is overperforming in regards to his stuff, his control and command are so good. And whatever you may say about how any of our good relievers can easily close, that’s just so not true. There is always a mental aspect about closing, and that individual has to be able to take extreme pressure. Especially if we are serious about making a run this year, playoff teams are usually looking to add BP arms for depth, not trade them away. 1 or 2 injuries to our BP and all of a sudden many will lament the lack of arms.
    Now if the season does go to shit by the trade deadline, and we are getting something amazing in return (maybe a top pitching prospect), then you can definitely look at that idea.
    But if we’re serious about making it into the postseason this year, imagine how a blown save or 2 down the stretch may cost us, and the fans’ reaction to it if he’s traded.

    • Amen to that. Closers are always easy to replace, until you don’t have one.

      As far as I’m concerned, there are 4-5 “untouchable” players if the team is serious about contending the next two years: Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, Dickey and Casey. Yes, most closers come out of nowhere and are not signed as “proven closers.” But that doesn’t mean that there are a ton of closers out there and it’s easy to find one who can perform serviceably, right Jon Rauch?

      Fuck guys, we went 3 years with a revolving door of shit at the back end of the rotation. Why would anyone want to go back to that if we think we’re be a playoff team?

      Serious question cause I’m too lazy to look it up; what was the last WS winner with a shaky back end of the rotation?

  27. The save in baseball is the most overhyped stat ever. Just look at how much money the Marlins gave Heath Bell. If some team wants to overpay for Jansen, let them.

  28. I wish Santos wasn’t hurt – he’s the guy with proven closer-mojo that I’d like to see the Jays trade. What would the Tigers have given up for Santos if he hadn’t been hurt this year?

    • There’s no such thing as closer mojo. Bases loaded in the 7th inning with a 1 run lead is just as much pressure (more actually) than 9th inning, 3 run lead, no runners on.

      The save stat is total garbage.

      • Oh, I’m with you on that. But not all teams are, some of them want guys who have closed before, who have the mojo. That’s why I was hoping to see a better showing from Santos.

      • Pretty sure he meant mojo in the ethereal sense in that it probably doesn’t exist. Like in Austin Powers 2.

  29. Janssen is exactly the type of player that you trade. A closer with impressive stats over a 1 year period. Relievers like Janssen who make a living off painting the corners and have injury histories like him make me nervous. His cheap contract and Delabar and Cecil waiting in the wings mean you have to at least gauge his value. Cecil was drafted as a closer, no reason why he couldn’t capably step into Casey’s shoes. Both Delabar and Cecil seem light years better equipped to take over the role than Casey was last year. It’s not like it’d leave a massive hole.

    • Did you just become a Jays fan last year? Since Billy Koch left in 2001, the Jays have had a TON of ‘potential closers’ in the bullpen. Exactly two of them actually closed games competently for us, and Kevin Gregg was a little shaky.

      The biggest fallacy about the analysis of closers is the view that since players rise out of nowhere to become closers, it should be easy to find a closer. Finding a real closer is like winning a roulette bet on Black 25. It’s awesome and feels so easy, so it’s tempting to take that found money, reinvesting it and taking another spin. Then you land on Zero 10 straight times and you’re flat broke again.

  30. As much as I love janssen, if the Tigers want to overpay for him, go ahead

  31. Spot on. If there is anything to be annoyed by it should be Orioles fans speculating that if would basically only take a PTBNL to get Janssen. That’s offensive. Fuck Orioles. The actual bird. The actual act of fucking.

  32. I agree with your article for the most part, but pitcher WAR especially from fangraphs, is fucking dumb as hell.

    • How so? It is totally a matter of preference.

      The best argument you can bring forth is that Fangraphs Pitcher WAR might be subject to more volatility than Baseball Reference Pitcher WAR. Other than that, can you explain what exactly the difference between a formula that uses FIP as its base or a formula that uses xRA as its base? There is not much difference.

      However, your volatility argument typically goes out the door when comparing against long periods of time.

      Furthermore, if there was such a huge philosophical difference between the two metrics, or if the metrics were intended to show two completely different things (instead, it is just two different ways of approaching the same problem), fangraphs and baseball reference would be working together to find common ground and optimization between all their research. Their goal is to have a unified WAR stat….

      • Hate to reply to my own comment, but since there is no edit:

        edit 1) volatility argument typically goes out the door over long periods of time, as Stoeten compared over long periods of time in the article.

        edit 2) instead of “would be”, that should say “wouldn’t be” ….. the way I wrote that made it seem like Fangraphs and BR are not working together, when they are working very closely together on this matter.

        • The main problem is that pitcher WAR is dumb as hell, as I wrote. It doesn’t work and is a really bad stat regardless of whether its from FG or BR.

          • Way to back up your statement there Leigh…

            • I wouldn’t call it garbage but the fact that Fangraphs WAR basically uses one stat (FIP) and then fits that stat into a representation of WAR and throws a couple park adjustments in there does make it pretty flawed IMHO.

            • FIP is a flawed stat at best. Its good for quick and dirty comparisons, but its not realistic and naive to base an entire pitchers value around it.

              WAR is also a counting stat, yet FIP is better as a predicative stat, not as a reflection of things that have happenned. So you get a bunch of writers (like in this article) that use WAR as a comparative tool for past performance without really understanding what that stat is even doing and suddenly Joe Blanton is worth more than Janssen which is insane.

              • This is what happens when you mix alcoholism with a grade 10 math education and a love of baseball.

  33. At this point, with the payroll the team is geared to win now.

    that being said you could trade janssen if a team really wants to overpay..but are you really going to get anything that significant for a 1.25 years of a reliever? Look at what we gave up for delabar and lincoln, you’re looking at a fringy 4th outfielder or a change of scenery prospect. both those things are irrelevant to the team now.

    so if you’re no going go get anything that helps immediately, why bother trading him?

    if anything, trade Oliver as Cecil can absorb those late innings and tough lefties. and tons of competing teams need late innings lefties.

    • Casey Janssen is going to be dealt only in if he can fetch a Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos type of return. It’s laughable to compare him to the AAAA pitchers Delabar and Lincoln were at the time they were dealt.

      • Janssen has more value if all things are equal to delabar and Lincoln but of course it’s not.

        Both those guys have years and control and cheaper salaries than Janssen which of course affects value. But you knew that right or should i proclaim your reply laughable?

        • Thanks. Makes perfect sense. That explains why Dustin Pedroia has similar value to Moines Sierra.

          • Right because pedroia to Sierra is the same distance from Janssen to delabar.

            Why didnt you just tell me you were an idiot originally

            • It’s almost as if it’s asinine to compare a borderline all star to a AAAA player.

              • lincoln and delabar were both no where close to AAAA players when we acquired them.

                but thanks for trying.

                • Steve Delabar
                  07/31/12 – acquired from Mariners
                  07/18/12 – recalled from minors (SEA)
                  07/17/12 – optioned to minors (SEA)
                  06/29/12 – recalled from minors (SEA)
                  06/16/12 – optioned to minors (SEA)
                  06/13/12 – recalled from minors (SEA)
                  05/31/12 – optioned to minors (SEA)

                  Brad Lincoln
                  07/31/12 – acquired from Pirates
                  04/18/12 – recalled from minors (PIT)
                  04/01/12 – optioned to minor (PIT)

                  There are these things that called “facts”. They help to make you not look a fucking buffoon. Just go to www,google.com. You should look into it.

  34. We seem to be flush with BP arms right now, and who knew our stud starting pitcher would be Rogers? If we get high value for him, why not, i would miss him, but its all about the team.

  35. I had mentioned back in April that they have to consider trading him as he is a very valuable asset right now, and like a stock the idea is to sell high not low.
    To do a trade you must trade someone that others covet ( in this case janssen). Waiting til he shits the bed (it’s possible) and has a high ERA is too late. That’s when everyone yells “trade him” but his value is low at that point.
    Everyone said trade lind when he was hitting .200 most of last year and beginning of this year, except people yelling that never answer “to whom”?.
    No one is willing to give you more than a garbage pail when the player sucks, so if a trade is to be made you do it when their value is high and for janssen that is now
    So..IMO, I would certainly be listening especially if it involved getting a permanent, everyday 2B who knew what the fuk he was doing.
    Many “saves” that a reliever gets he starts with a 2 or 3 run lead. Statistically, any control type pitcher would get the save the majority of the time thus the low WAR on most relievers including Janssen

    • Well, the low WAR is because it’s a counting stat, and dependent on the number of innings he can log– which, given the nature of the role he’s in, isn’t many, in relative terms.

  36. Trading Janssen is fine if you’re blowing up the team and rebuilding. Trading Janssen with the expectation that one of our current relievers will ‘step up’ because closers usually start as failed starters or middle relievers makes you a fucking dumbass. That’s all there is to it.

    • Stop saying dumb things and believing the closer myth you’ve been spoon-fed, please.

      • I honestly don’t understand how you could have watched the past four seasons and still believe that it’s easy to just try a bunch of relievers in the ninth inning and assume one of them will just work out.

        But then I saw that you cherry picked Fangraphs WAR to try and make the point that Joe Blanton and one season of Javy Vazquez have provided more value than Janssen. fWAR has Edwin Jackson providing the same value over that period as Craig Kimbrel. But ya, I’m the one who’s divorced from reality.

        • Trying a bunch of shitty relievers in the ninth inning, like the Jays have done in recent years prior to Janssen working out, is not going to work. The Jays have a bunch of good relievers right now. That’s a pretty huge difference.

          Cordero and Rauch and friends sucked and they pitched in the ninth inning. They didn’t magically suck BECAUSE they were pitching in the ninth inning.

        • Ray he isn’t running down Janssen. He’s running down the closer role. It is overvalued.

          An inning = an inning. Which inning simply doesn’t matter. It may feel worse to lose in the ninth. But I’d happily accept 5 blown saves at this point in the season if it came with 12 more leads going into the ninth inning.

          • In a real game, that is just not true. The pressure, the mental aspect, everything is much more hyped in the 9th. Batters are giving it their all, the fans are much more rowdy, and your team is on the edge. 9th inning in a close game is a different scenario.
            I agree there are times before that are high leverage and closers should be used then, but many times the 9th is the hardest.

      • Stop being an auto-contrarian and actually prove your arguments by bring right once in a while. Cito!!!

  37. Ya there is no point in blowing up a team just because of one really bad month.. that’s counter productive. Nope.. I think AA offers on JJ, but manages to move him depending on the money JJ is looking to get, otherwise, I think AA rides it out with the team he has until he wants to quit. Rogers has nothing to complain about, the interest level in the Jays is probably higher than at any other point since ’93, and AA has been very vocal about no squandering money, which is music to any CEO’s ears. Can’t see anything but conservative moves for now..

    • And Jansen.. well, the guy can hit corners like no one else.. how do you justify moving him.. unless someone is willing to overpay in blood….

  38. I get that Casey has only pitched 141 innings and I understand that the market is weak for relief pitching.

    But, what’s the difference between Cafardo’s suggestion to trade Jose or EE (which I personally find fucking ridiculous but all bias aside) and trading Casey?

    I know that Jose has “proven” himself for three consecutive years and EE is currently in his second year of proving himself as one of the best hitters in the AL/League. But, Casey’s in the same boat – he’s in the peak of his career and yes he’s relatively unproven but you can’t really criticize him for coaching decions (*cough* Farrell) which are out of his control..

    • The difference is that 141 innings over two and a third seasons is not enough to be close to as valuable as an everyday player, or a starter capable of logging two-and-a-half times as many innings, regardless of how outstanding said reliever has been.

      He’s not the victim of coaching decisions, he is incapable of logging enough innings to be in the same conversation as Jose and EE. He wouldn’t be nearly as effective as a starter, trying to turn lineups over multiple times, and who knows if he even could handle it with his history of shoulder issues.

      • As Brumfield points out below, I can’t assess how one player performs against the other players across the MLB. Instead, I have to look at his overall value to the team. In hindsight, this seems fairly obvious, especially for “closers”.

        And as I commented below, I never suggested that he should become a starter..I asked why can’t he become a 2 inning guy who pitches in high leverage situations? Basically, just asking why can’t he become a regular relief pitcher and the 9th inning become just another inning? He has the pin-point control, and three pitches (fastball, cutter and curveball) which are enough for two innings I think? If his shoulder history is the reason for why he can only pitch one inning then I understand..and at the least, have a “lights-out” closer with an awesome leg drag.

    • Because it’s not about how good you are at your job relative to other players at your position, it’s about how much value you add to a team. You’re a fucking idiot if you think a 60 inning reliever is as valuable to a team as 2 of the premier middle of the order bats in the league.

      • This. Brumfield.

      • Point taken about “how much value you add to a team”. However, I never said that Casey was more valuable…I simply said that he’s “in the same boat” – meaning that he’s probably at the peak of his career and is not receiving enough innings to receive his maximum value.

        I’m NOT trying to argue that Janssen should be stretched out to a starter but simply posing the question, why can’t he go two innings in high leverage situations (note: not necessarily save situations)?? He’d still face the lineup once. I also realize that his shoulder may not be able to pitch multiple innings and if that’s the case, then I retract the statement.

  39. I would be mad if the Jays traded Janssen, but that’s more because Janssen’s been one of my favourite Jays since that time when Janssen used to be a semi-effective starter–in other words, sentiment rather than rationale.

    But if the Jays do end up trading him, they better get something good.

    • Canard has said everything I was going to. Always been a fan of Casey, would break my heart to trade him.

  40. I know people keep saying the Jays bullpen is filled with quality arms, but there isn’t THAT much depth. We had to go through how many failed relievers before Wagner and Perez stuck?

    Regardless, Buster didn’t say anything direct about anything. It was like saying “other teams would love to have Clayton Kershaw as a starting pitcher”. Well of course they would. Who wouldn’t?

  41. I get that the bullpen has been a surprise this year. But thinking it can handle losing Casey at this point is off especially when santos can’t stay healthy.

    Unless it’s an overpay I don’t trade him. Lets not forget the bullpen was suppose to be our weakness this year. Lets not let 60 games suddenly change that

    • Considering this a team that is supposed to compete next year and still isn’t out of it this year, you can be sure that they will only trade him if someone overpays. Of course, your idea of overpay and AA’s could be vastly different.

  42. Casey the Best.

  43. I would totally be ok with trading Janssen.

    After his option year next year, you assume he’ll be a due a raise if he continues pitching well and I would not want the Jays to re-sign a 33 year old reliever with his injury history to any multi-year deal that pays $5+ million per year.

    He’s been a very good releiver but he’s still only that. A reliever. Spend the money that he’ll be due on the lineup and starting rotation.

  44. my brief for trading Janssen:

    1) he is fairly easily replaceable. I have a hard time seeing Delabar or Cecil not stepping into the role and doing well, based on their pitching this year,

    2) the Jays have significant BP depth to deal with BP chaining. guys like Carreno, Storey, Schwimer, Stilson, or Lincoln could provide capable-enough innings at the back of the BP (and that’s all they’d need to be – capable-enough). Luis Perez, one of our most effective arms from the 1st half of 2012, has started rehab innings in Dunedin. I’d be little leery of Wagner or McGowan stepping up to higher-leverage innings if Delabar, for example, became closer, but still…enough depth is there.

    3) Janssen is at the top of his value. His velo is down, he’s pitching through minor injuries, and he seems likely to need more surgery at some point. If his velo drops much further, or drops permanently, his insane command-and-control is going to have a harder time playing up. At a certain point, he’s a RH junkballer with superb command and deception but not much else.

    conclusion: the asset(s) he will bring back in trade will probably be worth more to the Jays than Janssen this year, and Janssen in the future. There is depth to cover for him, and to cover for relievers moving up to higher-leverage innings in a BP chain.

    • An low level A prospect should he that e deal done

    • *Forgot Santos and Jeffress to that depth. So, without Janssen the BP looks like:

      LHP – Cecil, Oliver, Loup, J.Perez
      RHP – Delabar, Wagner, McGowan

      with Rogers (once starters are healthy), Lincoln, Stilson, Santos, Schwimer, Jeffress, Luis Perez, Storey, Carreno, Thad Weber (why not?) and even Evan Crawford and Chad Beck if you’re desperate (bad years, but cup of coffee MLB experiences). So Juan Perez and Wagner won’t be as good as they have seemed and will have blow ups at some point, and there will be injuries, but that’s…some depth. Especially the LHP depth at the MLB level, and the LHPs not being used as exclusive LOOGYs.

  45. I don’t really get why you’re comparing relievers with starters using WAR when WPA is also right in front of your face. High-quality relievers get put into high-leverage situations where fucking up can cost a game. Replacement-level relievers don’t unless there’s no better option.

    If you’re trying to measure the impact of losing Janssen and moving everyone else “up one spot”, you can. It’s not WAR, though, and it’s typically going to be proportional to WPA rather than WAR.

  46. I tend to fall into the “closers are fickle and saves are overrated” blanket category.

    I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Janssen now, as long as it was good value and addresses an area of need (preferably second base or even catcher).

    I believe our bullpen has enough depth to sustain such a loss.

    To all those saying our bullpen is finally good/stable at closer and we know about the Jon Rauch’s of the world and what they brought. I don’t believe that we have any Jon Rauch’s type of guys in our pen. AA has retooled the pen with guys that have swing and miss stuff and throw hard and I’m convinced we could find a suitable replacement.

    Cecil, Delabar, (Santos, if healthy) would be adequate replacements. Then Loup and Oliver could get it done.

    Lots of capable guys,IMO.

    I am not saying to trade Janssen for the sake of just trading him, but if you can get a nice piece in return, why not?

  47. Just to remind you young ‘uns that Tom Henke was our very successful lights-out closer for about 10 years. Closers that good for that long do exist. I’m not saying Janssen is a Henke, but he is a reliable arm in the 9th and he’s pitched damn’ well for a while now.

    And this is a team that needs pitching.

    So all-in-all I’d like it if he didn’t leave halfway through the season.

    • He has a scary injury history though and will be due a raise+extension after next year when he’ll be 33. Not a guy I’d want to re-sign regardless of how well he pitches next year.

    • This team definitely needs pitching, and reliable pitching. The only way you could make a case for dealing janssen would be if it were going to upgrade your current MLB roster at a position of need. So what would that even be? second base?
      where are you going to find someone who needs a closer and would be willing to give up an above average second basemen to get him?

  48. So, uh, yeah. How about we keep winning baseball games!

  49. Casey Janssen and Josh Johnson to the Reds for Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Aroldis Chapman and Matt Latos……..yeah I’d do it. Heck I’ll even give the Maicer to be nice, but no way in hell I’ll part with EE’s parrott.

  50. Anyone hear Tabby pronounce ‘onions’ yesterday when talking about the Boomstick hotdog? I’d love a soundboard all to itself of that saying.

  51. I wonder if a contending team like the Tigers would overpay because “proven closer!”. Their bullpen doesn’t look too good and if they thought Valverde was a solution, they must believe in the mythical powers of a closer.

    • problem with that is, if you believe this team is gong to make the playoffs, then the tigers are the class of the AL..

      • That’s the thing. I don’t believe that this team will make the playoffs this year. That’s why I’m still ok with shopping Josh Johnson the moment he strings together some good starts.

        No rebuild or anything though. You can deal JJ and Janssen and still be setup for a playoff run next year.

  52. WAR doesn’t account for the intagible of stability that comes with having relievers who can be counted upon on a regular basis to finish off a game when the club holds a close lead.

    I wouldn’t trade Casey Janssen.

  53. Busty Olner !! Or — the logical conclusion, Busty Wilner !!!!!!!!!!

  54. Twade Bwian.

  55. Casey’s been one of my fave dudes in the Jays for a long long time. But if we could get an good haul for an over 30 relief pitcher with a history of shoulder problems…

    How do you say no?

  56. Hahaha…that goofball @bluejaysguru tweeted out this DJF post boasting “one of my tweets was part of a DJF post”. Obviously not realizing he’s being made fun of for his ridiculous reaction to Buster.

  57. Hey Stoeten please do a weekly piece featuring the most irrational tweets from the fan base. Im coming to the site anyways but good god lets hear more of the knife guys. I know you see these tweets daily and tire of them. However, I got a good laugh at that one.

  58. Simple solution…for which I have a cunning plan.
    Score enough runs that you’re 5 or 6 up in the ninth.
    A closer becomes irrelevant.
    Case closed. Next up…the Middle East.

    There – to paraphase Miss Ann Elk of Monty Python fame….”that’s the theory, which is mine and belongs to me.”

  59. Andrew, good sir, why do you feel the need to explain what you or anyone else has written. If someone is too thick headed to deferentiate between an idea/ suggestion and fact, fuckum!

  60. I love Janssen but it’s starting to feel like RP can be a major strength. Doubt it would happen but if someone offers you a talented late-20s 2B, I’ve got no problem with trying Wagner or Delabar as closer.

  61. The subsequent time I discover a weblog, I hope that it doesnt disappoint me as being a lot as this 1. I imply, I understand it was my choice to learn, but I truly thought youd have 1 factor attention-grabbing to say. All I hear is really a bunch of whining about something which you’d repair ought to you werent too busy around the lookout for interest.

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