Baltimore Orioles v Toronto Blue Jays

Last night, after the news about the Wednesday return of Jose Reyes broke, I left the post with a “MORE FORTHCOMING!” tag and began writing about some of the possibilities to get sent down when the club makes its reciprocal move. By the time I was done, though, it was far too late to bother updating the post and hoping that anyone would take a second look. So we’ll do it all now in it’s own post, because… y’know… content.

Take it away, me!

. . .

The recall of Reyes will spell the end for one current member of the 25-man roster who’ll either find himself bused down to the minors, or released outright from the club. Of course, as Shi Davidi notes, it’s not just a 25-man spot that will need to be cleared:

Don’t be so fast to think that changes anything, though, especially for someone like Munenori Kawasaki– who is one of the few demotion candidates with options remaining.

Currently the Jays have minor leaguers Thad Weber, Mickey Storey, Michael Schwimer and Todd Redmond on the 40-man, none of whom would be terribly troubling losses– and most of whom, frankly, aren’t likely to last through the summer on the team anyway, with Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, Drew Hutchison, Luis Perez and Sergio Santos all eventually (presumably) needing to reclaim their 40-man spots. (They could also move Ramon Ortiz– or even Brandon Morrow, if they felt it was safe to assume he’s more than 30-odd days from returning– to the 60-day DL).

I suppose it could be tempting for the club to attempt to clear this all up in one move, removing Juan Perez from the 40-man and hoping he manages to get through waivers. Thing is, there are two ways to look at the potential D’ing FA of Perez, which… is actually what you could say about any of the potential candidates for demotion. There are several possibilities, and none– despite the arguments you’ll get from pretty much everyone– that particularly stands out as the most palatable. At least in my opinion. Or, at least, it didn’t when I started writing all this.

Let’s have a look at the demotion candidates, starting with Perez…

Juan Perez

Pro: Perez has pitched effectively all year, and did so again last night. He may be old and out of options, but he may also have discovered something new since moving to the organization. According to the raw, uncorrected Pitch F/X data on his FanGraphs page (because the adjusted data tells a different story), Perez has thrown a tonne more two-seamers than ever before this year (47% to a previous high of 14%) and has thrown his slider less. The adjusted data moves the two-seamers into the four-seamer category, but shows him having thrown 60% fastballs, with his previous usage rates hovering in the high-40s. Is he throwing differently? Thing is, he’s had so few big league innings it’s hard to believe anything in the sample of data we’re looking at. Still, maybe he’s onto something and the Jays think someone will swipe him away if they try to pass him through waivers– not good if he really is some kind of Delabar-esque project they’re starting to see the fruits of.

Con: The track record on Perez suggests he’s not going to be able to keep this up, and he’s slightly redundant as the fourth left-hander in an eight-man bullpen– even one that’s been going as well as the Jays ‘pen has of late. They’ve gotten some nice value out of him, but does anybody really believe he’s more than just a warm body? This is a guy with more walks than innings pitched during his previous two big league cups of coffee, and not exactly a glowing MLB record from his coffee cups before that– which, incidentally, came way back in 2006 and ’07.

Munenori Kawasaki

Pro: Sports a .357 OBP against right-handers; takes excellent, grinding at-bats that help add elevate opponents’ pitch counts; should be a capable option at second (he logged some innings there in Seattle); can spell Reyes if they choose to ease him back into the lineup; if you’re ever going to nudge a few points into a guy’s column for congeniality (and, reportedly, work ethic), this seems about as good a guy to do it with. (Of course, you really shouldn’t do that).

Con: A redundant second baseman with Izturis, Bonifacio and DeRosa on the roster (though, offensively, a Kawasaki/DeRosa platoon may be the best option); provides by far his most value by playing short, which is obviously no longer tenable; unable to play third (as Izturis and DeRosa can) or the outfield (like Bonifacio can); still just a 68 wRC+ over 300 MLB plate appearances, which is still less than career marks for Bonifacio and Izturis and much less than the top seasons from those two. Most importantly, he can be optioned down, so the organization won’t lose him, unlike their other middle infielders.

Emilio Bonifacio

Pro: We haven’t seen the best of Bonifacio, though it’s not like a whole lot of people have. The 109 wRC+ he posted in 2011 seemed like something to dream on after we convinced ourselves his 2012 numbers were too injury-ravaged to take seriously, but it’s looking more and more– especially with it’s .372 BABIP, compared to this year’s .262– like an outlier. Still, he’s better than what we’ve seen; he’s a nice pinch running option for situations when Rajai Davis is already playing or has spelled an ailing Melky Cabrera; he can handle the outfield, second, and short passably– though he’ll be exposed playing at any of those spots too often. He’s a valuable, versatile piece and would be lost via waivers if they attempted to demote him– and would leave the club with just four outfielders, one of whom is struggling with his health, and another who can only hit left-handers.

Con: As noted, a pretty decent argument can be made that Bonifacio’s lone good season was a BABIP-driven outlier. As vaunted a member of The Trade and the club’s Dominican contingent as he was, it’s not terribly difficult to point to a lot of evidence that shows he kinda can’t hit and that the defence he plays, while at myriad positions, is sub-par across the board. He seems to have acquired the distinction of being a “Major Leaguer,” but I’m not entirely sure for what. I doubt the Jays would jettison him– they purport to love his energy and versatility– but would it be crazy?

Dustin McGowan

Pro: McGowan still has that golden arm– or at least a reasonable facsimile– though he has issues with command still, and hasn’t yet entirely found himself again after years in the rehab wilderness, but talent is in there. He’s also been such a project for the Jays over the year, and was so richly rewarded for his perseverance, that to give up on him now– assuming he wouldn’t get through waivers– would seem foolish, and an affront to whatever good reasons they thought they were signing him for in the first place.

Con: Would he get claimed on waivers? With about $2.7-million still owed him and fewer than 25 big league innings since 2008, perhaps not. However, if my understanding of the CBA is correct– which, it’s safe to say, is a big if– that’s not so much the issue. McGowan has over six years of service time, which gives him certain rights. Specifically, if he clears waivers and the Jays attempt to assign him to a minor league affiliate, he can refuse the assignment and become a free agent. And because he has so much service time, “if he is released and signs with a new team,” Purple Row explains, “his previous team must pay the difference in salary between the two contracts if the previous contract called for a greater salary.” So, he could refuse the assignment, still get all the same money, and take a league-minimum deal with a club that might actually have use for him, while leaving the Jays to pay the rest. Not exactly optimal for the club, because… what’s McGowan got to lose in that situation?

… And The Rest

The Jays have a few other options, none of which I think need quite the expounding-on as the ones above.

- Maicer Izturis signed a three-year deal this off-season, can play third base, as well as short and second, and his play has picked up of late on both sides of the ball.

- Mark DeRosa was more the club’s “veteran presence” signing than Henry Blanco ever was, and he’s been a valuable hitter against left-handed pitching– I don’t think he’s going anywhere.

- Neil Wagner is a lightning-armed right-hander who is finally having some success, and though he has options, I think the fact that he’s currently the third-chair right-hander– ahead of McGowan, and as opposed to Perez, who is the fourth lefty– gives him a clear edge.

- Aaron Loup has options left, but… look at the numbers, he’s been a much better pitcher than most of our selective memories would care to believe, I’d bet.

- I suppose the Jays could also place Melky Cabrera and his painful-to-watch hamstrings on the DL for a stint, and hope that a bit of rest gets him back to where he needs to be. If he hasn’t by this point, though, I don’t think that’s going to happen, either.


Reading over what I’ve written about the possibilities here, I think I’m going to have to go ahead and believe that Juan Perez, at 34 years old, given his place on the depth chart and the fact that he’s only had anything resembling his current kind of big league success for 12 innings– plus the fact that in the tiny sample we’ve seen he’s walked batters at a lesser rate than not only his time at Buffalo this year, but than any of his minor league seasons (career low BB/9 was 2.6 at High-A in 2003, currently sits at 2.3 with the Jays)– is the one who should go.

I’m not sure the Jays will see it that way– or if I’m missing something CBA-related in my interpretation of McGowan’s situation– and it’s a bit of a tough pill to swallow, if you only think about the last few weeks of performance, but that seems the most sound move of any. To me, at least.

Of course, the bullpen could get torched tonight and the notion of dropping down to a seven-man ‘pen may seem quite a bit less palatable than it has of late, so… you never know. I guess we’ll see on Wednesday…

Comments (113)

  1. What about Melky to 15 day DL, Davis plays left, Bonifacio backup outfielder, Izturis at 3rd, Kawasaki/Derosa platoon at 2nd.

    At least until Lawrie comes back.

    • Melky is going to get some time off at the All Star break, and he is still a top 3 hitter on this light hitting team. We have lived by the HR and great pitching this month, we would be foolish to think it will continue. We need to start getting on base, and puting Rajai or Boni in there over Melky is just silly.

    • If you put Melky on the dl today, then he would be out until until three days At least before the l star break. A three week rest wouldn’t be the worst thing

    • Everyone seems quick to throw Melky on the DL – is this based on a medical report that two weeks rest will drastically improve his sore hammy? Or is it just based on an assumption that two weeks off is going to help? Granted he looks awful in the field and running the bases, but his bat (even his 2013 bat) is still pretty important to this team. If rest is the magical cure for Melky perhaps throw E5 at 3rd base more often (where he has looked decent this year) and Melky to DH. 34 year old Perez is the obvious odd man out here.

      • Rajai also seems to replace him every game which further suggests to me that he’s hurt and the team recognizes that it should rest him when possible.

        • I’ve never had a hammie problem. But a few of the posters have and I’ve heard elsewhere that it takes a long time to heal. Any rest he could get has to be a good thing:assuming he doesnt lose his timing at the plate..

    • Pfft, Lawrie. HE should head down to Buffalo for a stint, just to get his ego in check.

  2. I would think that Muni is going down….hate to say it, but im going with that. 6 games vs teams that work the SP for every pitch, 4-5-6 pitches an at bat. One bad outing by a SP can spell doom for our BP.

    then think about after we Go 2 more in Tampa – 4 in Boston, we have the heavy hitting Tigers coming for 4 games with no off days.

    In My opinion, its an 8 man BP threw to the All Star break. Sucks, but makes the most sense for the team to have the pitchers to fall back on with 10 games vs good line ups with no off days.

    • And the 8 man pen will be gone by the time Lawrie is back anyways

      • maybe, who knows what will happen, or when that will be. But right now, it has to be Muni, for the good of the team.

        • If muni had no options then it would obviously be harder

          • maybe, we have Goins in AAA too. He would be just as good as Muni as a ball player, maybe not as a fan fav that Muni is, but do we really have room for a Ruddy when we are trying to push for the AL East Crown?

            • The Rudy you speak of has a .352 OBP against right-handers.

              • still a Rudy – were you going to put him? Maybe he can play 2nd? I think it just makes more sense to keep the BP at 8 for now. Option him down, so we lose No One.

                • should Qualify that a little i guess

                  I do like the idea of the Muni DeRosa split at 2nd base, and it looks good on paper and all….but i stick by my point that we need the 8man BP right now in this game 10 game of heavy hitting working the count run we must go threw. We keep Muni in the system, and lose no one. If this was late Aug, i might have a different opinion, but from a clearly “we need more depth” point of view, its the best option ATM

  3. It should be either Perez or mcgowan

  4. The 40 man spot shouldn’t be an issue at all. They can just move Ramon Ortiz to the 60-day DL and thus lose nobody (until the next wave of 60-day guys gets back). He’s currently only on the 15-day.

  5. Great post! Decisions decisions…

  6. I will be shocked if McGowan is DFA’d for the reasons Stoeten lays out. AA is not one to throw away assets and there are many teams that would claim him for $2-3M.

    I agree with Stoeten here. Perez get’s DFA’d.

    • There is this very weird assumption that almost everyone is making..and that is McGowan’s arm is just not going to fall off at any moment.

      go ahead..I dare someone to claim him off waivers. do it. see..i knew you’d blink.

  7. Seems logical Stoeten.
    One last option is some sort of trade.Unlikely but an option.

  8. The 40-man spot is not an issue at all. Lots of options.

    As for the 25, my guess is that it will be Perez, but only delaying the inevitable until the next time the bullpen gets taxed, then Kawasaki will get swapped out for a reliever.

  9. Demoting Perez definitely seems the most prudent. There’s little reason to think based on his career track record that he’s anything more than a fringe MLB reliever with serious control problems.

    The others currently have utility to this team or at least the potential to be of some benefit.

  10. I really don’t understand why (a) people think that Perez won’t clear waivers and (b) why it’s a major loss if somehow he was cleared on waivers. The dude is 34 years old with something like 60 innings to his name. I don’t see why anyone would be willing to go out of their way to punt someone off their 25-man let alone 40-man to make room for a guy like this. Dude was picked up as a 34 year old minor league free agent, this is not the type of player your scream “Asset Management” for.

    • He’s pitched very well, is the only thing. But yes.

      • He looked pretty rough in Texas, but the DeRosa error saved his ERA. Maybe it’s the lack of anything resembling technique, but I can’t take him seriously as a legitimate major leaguer for any sustained period of time going forward.

        • This is the most coherent point ever made on a DJF post. Kudos! (Also, demote Kawasaki. Warm fuzzies are not a reason to keep a light-hitting limited-defense platoon guy!)

          • i hear ya m2

            Human error can sometimes be caused by emotions, and sending or risking sending anyone out of the system before the midway point is not a great option, cause there is still a fuck ton of baseball to be played yet.

        • wow. the error saved his era? how about the error allowed for more hits and runs to be scored off of him and therefore he didnt look so good.

  11. Agree Stoeten, I think it will be Juan Perez too.

    The 8 man pen has to be the thing to go.

    The fact Muni can play a much more respectable 2B defensively than Boni, (assuming based on his strong SS play) has to bode well for him.

    I’d personally like to see Mely hit the DL, take him close to the AS game and have almost 3 weeks off. Rest those hammy’s. We need his doubles back, I am beginning to loathe single’s Melky.
    The bigger question, what happens when Lawrie comes back?

    • Boni is coming around at 2B – and Muni has 5 errors at SS, he is a sub pair fielder, just as Boni.

      Muni has a better OBP vs RH
      but Boni has that PR speed that we need in close games, and can play 5 spots as apposed to 2. They are sim at hitting and fielding, but i think Bonis speed and BS ability make gives him more value. that and the fact that we can keep Muni in the system as there are is still over half the season to go here folks, no one should kid themselves into thniking we have come out of the woods from the injury bug just yet.

  12. The fans will have to get over Muni at some point so why not get it over with now? His contributions to the team are redundant.. Maicer has shown he plays a pretty decent backup SS.

    • Having the 4th best OBP on the team isn’t redundant. It’s kind of pretty important.

      • I want to keep him too, he’s earned a spot. But unless they find a deal for Bonifacio, which I can’t see happening since his versatility is a valuable asset to this team (he is the second bench OF behind Davis) Kawasaki is the victim of a number crunch and option crunch. Baseball’s fucking cruel like that sometimes.

        As much as I love Kawasaki though, and his OBP and ability to stretch those at-bats, let’s not pretend he’s being thrown overboard for the second coming of Eddie Zosky.

        • agree 100%

        • If maintaining the best roster on the field this season is the main goal, you find a way to keep Kawasaki. As long as he’s taking walks like this, he’s the best option they have at 2B vs. RHP. That’s a lot of productive ABs you’re potentially throwing by the wayside just to keep around a shitty baseball player like Bonifacio who has no business starting for this club.

      • I just don’t see how Muni’s decent OBP and ability to stretch out at bats (his only above avg qualigies) is enough to justify his value on the 25 man. You have to believe (or at least take the chance) that Izturis and Boni’s numbers will start gravitating closer to their career averages.

        • you just said that his biggest asset and only really above average one is the ability to get on base.

          then you state that is not enough to keep him.


          getting on base is the single most important factor that makes a player useful. there is no more directly correlated stat to runs created than on base percentage.

          boni’s ballyhood speed and pinch running ability are rather superfluous on a team with davis. I mean how often are you going to require two pinch runners in a game.

  13. It will be Juan Perez. As Stoeten (and others, including myself a few times) pointed out, having 4 lefties in a 7-man pen seems pointless. And really, DFA’ing McGowan over Perez leaves you with just two righties in the bullpen since Casey only throws the 9th.

    I like the Melky option if his legs really do need the rest, but otherwise you DFA Perez, see if you can turn him into a new non-prospect depth guy to help Buffalo (not out of the realm of possibility I guess), and keep Kawasaki around as a back-up to Jose. When Lawrie comes back Muni will be the victim of the roster crunch and Buffalo gets to love him until rosters expand in September.

    • Loup is the only lefty that’s utilized as something clos to a LOOGY. Oliver and Cecil are quite properly trusted (especially Cecil) in any situation. I don’t think the lefty/righty balance thing is that big of a deal.

      • Finally someone said this.

        Just because Juan Perez is 4th on the depth chart out of our 4 LHP relievers doesn’t really mean anything at all. Allow me to elaborate:

        Loup is our only true lefty specialist. Cecil was slated to be one this year as well, before he dominated everyone. Even before this, Cecil was not slated to be much of a lefty specialist out of the pen (or at least it was unknown), just a guy with better platoon splits heading into the season.

        Darren Oliver is not a lefty specialist in any sense of the word. The fact that he throws with his left hand bears almost no relevance as to whether or not he has greater success against RHB or LHB, and bears even less relevance as to whether or not Juan Perez means we have too many left handed relievers (a redundancy, one might call it).

        Yet I fail to see the Zaun / Stoeten line of thinking here in saying that Juan Perez has a chance to clear waivers and we shouldn’t really care even if he doesn’t. I never thought I would put these two names in the same sentence in terms of baseball analysis, especially since the conclusions come from such different lines of thinking.

        If the line of thinking is that we should get rid of Perez because we have too many quality LHP relievers (an undoubtedly relatively rare and valuable commodity), what on earth makes anyone think that some other MLB team wouldn’t take the chance on a quality LHP reliever? Do we not also have too many light hitting, below average fielding middle infielders (an undoubtedly less rare commodity of similar value, a different form of redundancy some might call it?), only one of which – according to the MLB CBA – we can actually get rid of without risking asset loss?

        Keep in mind, this is not just any LHP reliever we are talking about DFA’ing here. Juan Perez is a LHP reliever that throws 93MPH that has given up exactly 0 ER in 12 IP this year, with a 9.00 K/9, a 2.25 BB/9, a ground-ball rate of 62.1%, and a 72.7% LOB. I hate to say it, but, what the Christ? How does Juan Perez not have similar opportunities for sustained success as Kawasaki does? End of year projections don’t even speak to great differences, if we truly want to debate the nuances of under 1 WAR players and the nuances of comparing pitcher/batter WAR stats (especially that of relievers).

        Regardless though, i posit that there is not a single team in Major League Baseball that would not claim a LHP with Juan Perez’s stats, currently making league minimum. If teams are still willing to have the corpses of Randy Choate (a true specialist, I know) on their teams, Juan Perez will be claimed, and we will miss a valuable LHP arm when one of Loup/Cecil/Oliver get injured within the next month. Honestly, what is more likely: Juan Perez getting claimed, or one of our 3 other LHP getting injured within the foreseeable future?

        I’ve never been a fan of the 8 man bullpen, but given our SP quality (or lack thereof) over the last two years I have come around on the notion significantly. Do we really trust our current SP staff to go 6IP-7IP strong for the next two weeks? Not enough faith for me to lose Juan Perez for literally nothing……

        The reason AA et al are aggressive on waivers and in minor league free agency is to build valuable assets for relatively little cost, as has been done with Perez and Kawasaki. The goal of being aggressive in this respect is NOT to build up an asset to hand away to another team without any compensation, as we will be doing if we lose Perez on waivers without trade. To be honest, I would not even accept a cash or PTBNL trade for Perez right now, even if we were to DFA him and make the attempt to outright him.

        None of our players on our current 25 man roster are worth the risk of sending through waivers, Juan Perez included. This 25 man roster choice should be between Loup (or only true LOOGY), Wagner (hi there radar gun), and Kawasaki (obp vs RHP) as these are the only players we do not have to risk losing for nothing. The 40 man roster decision in this light is easy; either move Ramon Ortiz or Brandon Morrow to the 60 Day DL, whoever is farthest from returning.

  14. Perez has been electric and has and 0.00 ERA in 12 innings. Despite his age and track record I don’t see how no team takes a shot on him and claims him on waivers. There are worse relievers than him in the league. He made be old but he doesn’t have a lot of innings on his arm so less wear and tear. Darren Oliver is 42; Perez conceivable can have many more seasons left.

    There is no role for Kawasaki. He’s never going to be used as a pinch hitter, pinch runner or come in as a defensive replacement. When are we going to use him? Once a week to spell Reyes? Bono or Macier can do this once a week. Sooner or later he’s going to need to be optioned to the minors.

    Same with McGowan; there’s no role for him and he’s just taking up a spot. This is a more difficult decision because the organization has invested so much time and energy into him. There’s also the human element and the work he’s put in into coming back. But realistically what are we hoping for? They don’t think he can start anymore/don’t want him to as evidence by running Wang out there. All he is doing is coming in for mop up duty. Is this really an asset?

    What happens when Happ, Morrow and Lawrie come back? We need to make 3 more spots after this decision. If you don’t send Kawasaki down now; are you really going to keep him the rest of the year?

    • 12 innings. 2B vs. RHP.

      • As you will see in my comment above, I am not a fan of comparing WAR stats between pitchers and hitters, especially when we are talking about relievers.

        That being said, Perez’s 12 IP have been almost as valuable as Kawasaki’s 60 games played, in terms of fangraphs WAR. While end of season projections are pretty random on both players, I have every reason to believe that Perez’s K/BB stats offer just as much hope for sustained success as Kawasaki’s potential for mediocrity.

        I will also note that in 3-4 years of reading your blog, this is the first post where I have ever disagreed with you. We should absolutely not risk losing Perez for nothing, cash, or a PTBNL.

        • Hate to respond to my own comment, but since there is no edit:

          Perez, in terms of WAR, is arguably MORE valuable than Kawasaki (despite his 12 IP), if we want to consider WAR as a rate stat rather than a pure counting stat.

          Kawasaki has been on the roster much longer than Perez, and has accumulated more WAR based on his 60 GP, not based on his performance. Perez has simply been lights out since he joined the team, save for a couple minor scuffles which have resulted in a couple hits and an unearned run.

          Again, I recognize the downfalls of using war when doing what I’m doing here.

    • I think McGowan is basically up while Happ and Morrow are out. When Happ comes back Esmil returns to the bullpen, taking back the spot Wagner now holds and forcing Neil to Buffalo (Wagner has options, Esmil does not). To make room for Happ on the 40 man you just shift Ramon Ortiz to the 60, I think it’s safe to say he’s not returning this year. Assuming Wang is still throwing well and keeping Morrow’s spot warm this whole time, Happ returns and your rotation then looks like this (not necessarily in order): Dickey-Wang-Buehrle-Johnson-Happ. When Morrow returns he obviously gets his rotation spot back from Wang, and then your decision comes down to choosing McGowan or Wang as your long man/spot starter at the back of the bullpen, depending on how Wang has thrown. And for Kawasaki, just hold on to him until Lawrie is back.

      At least that’s what I think might happen. My head’s now spinning.

      • I prefer Rogers to Wang in the rotation. Both have been good but I think Rogers is still getting stretched out and becoming more acclimated to the role. Yesterday was his worst start and we still had a chance to win. Morrow get his spot back when comes back hands down.

        Maybe this is a crazy idea but what about moving Happ back as the long man or send him to Buffalo. Happ wasn’t lighting it up before he went on the DL; why should he automatically get his spot back?

        • agree with Happ going to AAA as long as Wang or Rogers is still playing well. Maybe RR and him can be roommates? Happ gets a spot if either of them look like years past… Rogers could have a break out year and Wang is looking like the guy that fucked us up for years in NY, soooo who the fuck knows anymore

          but really…..what an awesome problem to have.

        • Agreed

  15. I’m jumping on board the the following: Melky to the 15 day DL (platoon Boni and Rajai in LF), if Lawrie is starting rehab this week you have maybe 7-10 days until he’s back. At that point, send down Muni and when you activate Melky of the DL you take care of 8th man in the pen hopefuly after some more evaluation time

    Hypothetically – after the A/S break there will be more decisions to be made with potentially Happ and Morrow (he’s still NOT throwing so I’m not holding a lot of hope here) coming back. At that point what do you do? Rogers to pen and Wang out (insert joke here)? and then Wagner down? McGowan?

    Honestly so long as the team is winning these are decisions I’m sure AA is ok to have to deal with…

    And really…JOSE REYES!!

    • Make room for me, I’m coming on board too. I hate watching Melky hobble around like he’s Prince fucking Fielder. Get those legs healed up and come back when you can run!

  16. I agree with the Melky DL proposal 100%.

    Does Wagner have options?

    At some point McGowan has to go down, though, right? When Santos, Morrow, Lawrie come off the DL, how would we keep him up in the first place?

  17. If they keep bonicrapio it would only be for clubhouse reasons which i think is stupid. He has been the worst positon player on the roster(except maybe jpa) and deserves to be cut. His career stats show that he is awful and his performance isnt surprising. Im just tired of this guy being an automatic out and making routine miscues. Send him back to the NL where he belongs.

    • I am so glad you are not in charge of these decisions.

    • Have you even looked at his 2011 numbers?

      • Yeah, his babip driven 2011 outlier year as mentioned above? Look at his career stats. Putrid.

      • everyone has, but this year has sucked, i like him as a PR, thats about it, as Rajai is almost certain to go in for Melky after 7IP right now. Although, Boni is showing some life, so maybe 2011 isn’t that far off, but so far it has been. I would still keep him though.

        • Oh, he is fast and can play multiple positions (not rather well i might add). But the speed is useless if he cant get on base (which he sucks at). I dont see the point in keeping a roster spot solely for a pinch runner.

          • example of the need to PR

            Rajai already in the game for Melky
            4-4 tie
            JPA gets a single, with no outs, PR Boni in, steals 2nd, Izzy bunts him to 3rd, now a fly ball is the go ahead run…..

    • Everyone keeps saying this, yet he’s made less errors than Kawasaki since Reyes got hurt. 3 of his 7 errors were in 1 brutal game in the first week or so of the season, since then, 4 errors, not that bad

      • you dont keep a back up middle infielder who can’t hit for power, or be a base stealing threat, and can only take at bats against right handers, What happens if Melky actually needs some time off? you call up gose? now you have two fan favorites who can only hit right handers and for 0 power, how does that help you win? One of the things the rays do better than anyone is have players on the team that can shift around, Boni makes Gibbons’ life way easier. I’m 100% sure Reyes is going to come up and remind everyone he’s the best player on this team and who our back up second basemen is will be an argument of the past that no one gives a shit about anymore

    • why is jpa hated so bad, hes basically the most productive catcher in the league
      hes on pace for 30+ homers as a catcher, hit him 7th or 8th and take his production

      • what gorilla metric system are you employing to claim he is a productive catcher?

        his ability to hit homeruns is more than counterbalanced by his inability to do anything else.

  18. Demote Kawasaki. He ain’t a thing, man.

  19. Like many of you, I think the best choice is to DFA Perez
    and hope he clears waivers.
    But if its Muni, it will be less than shocking.
    Melky could probably benefit from a 3 wk rest, but as others have said, his OBP at the top of the lineup is hard to replace. Doubt they go that way unless they have to.

    Lawrie is supposedly 2 weeks from a rehab assignment and therefore maybe back around the all star break. He wasn’t hitting before he was injured and if the team is going well, they may be reluctant to mess with that. He has options and they could option him to Buffalo and let him earn his way back.

    More likely that Muni gets sent down at that point,
    but assigning Lawrie to Buffalo would not shock me either.

  20. Two months ago we were devasted when Jose Reyes was injured and he was being replaced by a light hitting average defence shortstop. Now we are upset that we might lose this replacement player but….

    We have Jose Reyes back!

  21. wait, perez is old at 34 but mcgowan is young at 31? and what about oliver? he’s what 42 and gone after the season so why even bother?

    so why not trade mcgowan or oliver and get an A prospect in return.
    can we stop pretending that mcgowan is some stud prospect. the only reason to keep him is to placate AA’s ego. if you don’t trust him in high leverage situations then release him already.

  22. Perez goes, Kawasaki stays until lawrie comes back.

  23. FYI… RA will be holding a chat on ESPN today at 1:30pm EST.

  24. “(Of course, you really shouldn’t do that).”

    You really shouldn’t write about team sports.

  25. Happ’s on the mend.

    Keep up your rosterbating Stoeten, eat carrots to counteract the blindness.

  26. Perez and Mune are the only ones that really make sense to me…
    I’ll miss Munenori and his antics if he goes, but A) I like winning and want them to make their decisions based on that more than attitude and B) He’ll probably be back since it’s unlikely everyone stays healthy for the rest of the year.

  27. it’s a good problem to have

    don’t lose sight of that

  28. Perez was a pleasant surprise but given the upside on McGowan, and the fact that he has just begun the weighted ball program that Delabar, Cecil, and Janssen have done – I think there is little chance of AA risking losing him to a waiver claim – even if that would be a remote possibility.

    There is just too much upside to the other players mentioned.

    • Thanks for that Ernie. Do you think Stubby Clapp still has a chance to make it to the Big Leagues?

      • I think he does as long as he listens to my advice and drops to one knee every time he swings the bat.

        • When I played I never swung the bat. Nobody ever seemed to have a problem with that but I never brought it up much either.

        • Jeez Ernie,that brings back memories.
          That fucking poster of you.
          Trying to teach kids how to hit and had one kid who kept on collapsing his back leg. I said to him ” what in the fuck are you doing that for?” ( well not exactly those words).He told me of the poster of you hittin a dinger and he felt that’s the way you’re supposed to hit.

    • At some point they just need to cut their losses on this guy – to call him injury prone is an understatement. A weighted ball program isn’t going to suddenly turn him into Yu Darvish.

  29. I agree, Perez is kinda redundant with Oliver, Cecil, and Loup in the pen. And really if you want to hid him from your league opponents, then all you would have to do would trade him for cash considerations to a team in the NL.

    • Another site had this to say about the Jays (paraphrased):
      “The bluejays have an x-game win streak, just like the athletics’ streak that inspired the movie moneyball except this time nobody cares”

  30. What about flipping Boni for a +B prospect…middle infielders that can steal bases (even shitty ones) don’t grow on trees…then go to a 7 man pen when Lawrie is back…maicer/Kawasaki/Derosa in a 3 headed “great clubhouse guy” platoon at 2nd and 3rd…

    • you mean like ciriaco who was dfa’d and bosox got nothing for?

      • Boni is shitty but not Ciriaco shitty…

        • Right, but if Ciricao gets traded for cash as he wasn’t going to clear down to the Padres what makes you think Boni will get us a B prospect right now?

  31. Hey Stoten: when you ripped me yesterday for not understanding small sample sizes on Bonifacio’s lack of hitting ability, was this before or after you decided to look up his career stats and realized that his 2011 stats look like the outlier, and the one and only decent season he has had in the majors out of about six seasons? (cough*SSS*cough)

  32. For whatever it’s worth 300 messages into this post, this type of post is what separates DJF from pretty much anything online: thorough analysis, looking at all angles, and more or less concise. Nicely done bro.

    • So true…..

      I got banned from Bluebird Banter for stating how poor their Kawasaki articles were, and for arguing as to how Kawasaki was going to be sent down.

      Of course, because the articles did not include the pertinent information, as Stoeten does with such quality (not a joke), the Bluebird Banter community was unable to comprehend the facts I was stating in my argument and banned me due to disagreeing.

  33. bonifacio is the worst 2b in the entire league that continues to get playing time.

    there are only 5 2b with obp below .300 with min 200pa and boney’s is 60 pts below the 5th worst guy.

    and guess what izturis is the 3rd worst

    • Ya I agree with you and think that if the jays are considering moving a position player, kawasaki is the last guy they should consider moving. I understand that Boni and Izturis are both more versatile, they’re also way shittier or at least have been this season.

      Stoeten points out Kawasaki’s awful wRC+ while Boni and Izturis’ are even worse and both have negative WAR to this point in the season. Izturis has come up from like -1.5 tho to around -1.0.

      Still, looking at Kawasaki’s wRC+ misses the point. He BB% is excellent and it’s also slightly higher than his K%. He gets on base at an above average rate. He’s perfect for the 9 spot in the line-up when the better hitters can come up and try to knock him in for a run.

      Forget these other scumbags, keep Kawasaki

  34. My humble opinion on who should go down:

    I’m an asset whore so I wouldn’t want to lose anyone.
    So even though Wagner has been lights out I’d option him.
    Perez could revert back to his old self but if you can keep them both then why not gamble that he stays hot?

    History shows that someone will hurt their arm at some point and you can always bring Wags back up.

  35. Why cut Perez now though? You might as well evaluate him for another couple of weeks and then you fuck with the bullpen when Lawrie is back in two weeks. Kawasaki’s going down to AAA either tomorrow or in two weeks, but you don’t lose him There’s 0 reason to rush the issue deciding on the bullpen.

  36. I’m less interested in who goes down when Reyes comes back because it could be a reliever and they’re more interchangeable than the guys on the bench IMO. I’m more interested in who gets the every day 2B gig when both Reyes and Lawrie rejoin the team because even if they send down a reliever now, when Lawrie returns it’ll have to be a position player (barring further injuries, trades, etc.).

    I wrote about it over on my own blog, and for my money it should be Izturis who gets the gig and Kawasaki that goes down. To me it makes the most sense from both a production and asset management perspective.

    Although Stoeten, I like your idea of a Kawasaki/DeRosa platoon with Izturis getting 3B until Lawrie comes back.

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