June 30 vs Red Sox

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 1.44 0.005
Bautista – RF 1.41 0.382
Encarnacion – DH 1.52 -0.052
Lind – 1B 0.93 -0.025
Thole – 1B 2.04 -0.119
Davis – LF 1.71 0.009
Rasmus – CF 1.85 0.123 Pitcher pLI WPA
Arencibia – C 1.95 -0.118 Buehrle – SP 0.82 -0.121
Izturis – 3B 2.14 -0.105 McGowan – RP 0.56 0.088
Kawasaki – 2B 1.27 -0.051 Perez – RP 2.42 -0.066
Bonifacio – PH / 2B 3.03 -0.168 Janssen – RP 4.26 -0.281
Total 1.75 -0.119 Total 0.99 -0.381

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOOT: Jose Bautista, 38.2%
Griffin: Casey Janssen, -28.1%
Impact At-Bat: Bautista Solo Home Run, Top 9, 33.6%
Impact Pitch: Shane Victorino GIDP Game-Winning Reached On Error, Bot 9, -28.1%
Highest Leverage AB: Emilio Bonifacio Strikeout, Top 6, 4.00
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Victorino GIDP Walk-Off, Bot 9, 4.26
Lineup Contribution: -11.9%
Pitching Contribution: -38.1%
Average Leverage Index: 1.39
Chart explanation

- Mark Buehrle’s line: 6.0ip, 7h, 4k, 1bb, 4er, 105 pitches, 5 swinging strikes, 45 game score, 2.72FIP.

- Ryan Dumpster’s line: 5.1ip, 7h, 2er, 2k, 3bb, 96 pitches, 7 swinging strikes, 45 game score, 3.99FIP.

- This is is the Mark Buehrle start that defines Mark Buehrle starts. He got hit around a little bit over the course of 6 innings, managing to keep the ball in the ballpark and take on minimal damage. The Red Sox jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the 2nd inning after Ryan Lavarnway hit a RBI ground rule double and Brandon Snyder followed with a 2-run double of his own. Buehrle settled slightly, giving up another RBI double in the 5th to Jonny Gomes.

- Adam Lind left the game in the 3rd inning due to tightness in his mid-back. He was replaced at 1st by Josh Thole, a possibly innocuous fact that I’m bringing up because of a literary device known as FORESHADOWING.

- The Jays offense got off to a bit of a slow start but got things rolling in the 4th with Encarnacion’s lead off single coming around to count thanks to hits from Davis and Rasmus, and Maicer Izturis cashed in Rajai on a fielder’s choice to bring the Jays within 1. In the 7th Jose Reyes (2) hit his first home run since returning from the DL, a solo shot to left.

- In the 9th, with the Jays trailing 4-3, Jose Bautista (19) jumped all over a Koji Uehara breaking ball and hit it out of the building to tie the game.

- Dustin McGowan worked scoreless 7th and 8th innings. Juan Perez took over in the 9th inning, giving up a 1-out single to Snyder and a walk to Jacoby Ellsbury. He gave way in the high leverage situation to Casey Janssen. And… Well…

- Sighhhhhhh. Well… The 2nd pitch Casey Janssen threw turned into a Shane Victorino ground-ball that was hit almost directly at Thole. The ball ate him up and rolled through the infield, scoring Jonathan Diaz without issue, giving the Red Sox a walk-off error. You couldn’t have asked Janssen to do much more, and sometimes you don’t get the bounces but damn. It sucked.

- The Jays managed 11 hits and 4 walks, but failed to come through in a number of big spots, leaving 10 men on base.

- The most egregious inning for the Jays was the 6th, where the Jays loaded the bases with none out only to watch Arencibia and Izturis pop out to short followed by a Bonifacio K.  The Jays came away with nothing to show for a huge opportunity, dropping their Win Expectancy by 30% in 3 at-bats.

- A fairly rough afternoon for the bottom of the order, Rasmus, Izturis, Kawasaki, and Bonifacio combined to go 1-for-10 (Muni had the hit, obviously). Arencibia drew a walk, but the struggle he’s been in (.195/.242/.338 with 5 XBH in June) led to your boy Shi writing an article saying  ”Frustration is starting to build”. There are a number of eye popping numbers in the piece, including that he’s seen just 12% of his at-bats reach a 2-0 count.

- While we all stress with heavy hands that one loss is just one loss and to never get too high or too low, Gibby himself called this the most frustrating loss of the season. That’s becoming a pretty difficult accolade to keep track of.

- The (40-41) Jays managed to not get swept by the BoSox, and now host Detroit 4-game set against the AL Central leading (43-37) Tigers. The series begins at the Rog Mahal at 1:07pm EST

- The projected series opening matchup is R.A. Dickey (4.90FIP, 0.6fWAR) vs Jose Alvarez (5.70FIP, -0.1fWAR)

Happy Canada Day! Bring on the garish red unis.

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Comments (29)

  1. Davidi link not working?

  2. So WPA could probably use some tweaking, huh?

  3. Bonafacio gives me hope that I could still become a MLB player.

  4. Is Lind day-to-day?

    • When I played we had to stop playing that song in the locker room after Lance Parrish chundered his vegemite sandwich all over the air conditioning unit.

  5. The Moming after? Let’s get some kearning, people.

  6. Anyone heard anything about Lind and/or EE?

  7. I thought Rasmus had an rbi single? You state in the post the bottom went 1-10 with Muni getting the lone hit…

  8. How in the name of fuck is DeRosa today’s clean-up hitter?

  9. My god I will choke a baby if I hear people on the jays say ” his defensive skills have improved from last year “. It’s bullshit! They haven’t ! At times he might remember to drop down and block a ball but we only need to go back a couple games to watch him wave at balls that bounce to the backstop costing the team DP opportunities and inevitably runs as has happened lots this year and last and the one before that ! He costs pitchers strikes with his catching he sets a shitty target and to top it off he has no clue what to call except good ole #1. How can a catcher have a game plan for batters but not have a clue what a pitcher is going to do to him? This is JPA at the plate ” maybe this one is a fastball, swing , strike nope. This one will be a fast ball , swing , strike nope in the dirt again. This one will be a fastball ! Strike 3 oh he didn’t throw me a fastball. I would have called for 3 fastballs in a row there I dunno what that guys doing ! ” ignorant narcissistic backup that should be in AA

  10. Nice post on the game but you made Colby looks much worse than he was. He got two hits on the day including an RBI. He was one of the people on base in the 6th when the bases were loaded with none out.

  11. Keep playing like they have the last week and this will soon be a 2013 post mortem, not a morning-after discussion. If they have one more week of this shit, its over. By then we could very well be 9 games out. Sometimes i see urgency from this team, sometimes I don’t.

  12. The jays still need some tweaking. Hopefully AA isn’t afraid to shift to another gear at the trade deadline

  13. Well, let’s play GM – what’s the biggest need on this team?
    If you could get ONE guy – what would it be? (Keep in mind this is NOT Christmas, and the baseball fairy is not dropping the second coming of Roy Hobbs in our lap)

    A starter?
    A bat off the bench? (Read : BETTER bats)
    Catcher? Second base?

    Discuss amongst yourselves.
    Your time starts….NOW.

  14. With Jose and Jose heating up, its much more believable to go on another good offensive run (unbelievable they won so many games with numbers 1-2 slumping in the lineup), hard to imagine saying this after the past 2 years but without Lind the lineup looks much less deep though

    • It just seems sometimes like they’re forced to ram square pegs in round holes. It’s not easy to quantify but the line-up seems full of easy outs or one-trick ponies.

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