July 4 vs Tigers

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.63 -0.035
Bonifacio – 2B 0.01 -0.001
Bautista – RF 0.39 -0.039
Encarnacion – DH 0.32 0.009
Thole – PH 0.00 0.000
Lind – 1B 0.52 -0.063 Pitcher pLI WPA
Rasmus – CF 0.40 -0.042 Rogers – SP 0.73 -0.239
Izturis – 3B 0.26 0.009 Wagner – RP 0.08 -0.017
Davis – LF 0.46 0.015 Oliver – RP 0.01 0.001
Arencibia – C 0.80 -0.051 Janssen – RP 0.00 0.000
Kawasaki – 2B / SS 0.59 -0.049 Loup – RP 0.00 0.000
Total 0.45 -0.245 Total 0.44 -0.255

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOOT: Rajai Davis, 1.5% (LOL)
Griffin: Esmil Rogers, -23.9%
Impact At-Bat: Munenori Kawasaki Flyout, Bot 5, -4.0%
Impact Pitch: Andy Dirks RBI Double, Top 1, 11.3%
Highest Leverage AB: J.P. Arencibia Flyout, Bot 5, 1.86
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Dirks RBI Double, Top 1, 1.42
Lineup Contribution: -24.5%
Pitching Contribution: -25.5%
Average Leverage Index: 1.39
Chart explanation

- Esmil Rogers’ line: 5.0ip, 11h, 4k, 2bb, 7er, 94 pitches, 8 swinging strikes, 19 game score, 2.66FIP.

- Justin Verlander’s line: 7.0ip, 3h, 5k, 2bb, 102 pitches, 10 swinging strikes, 74 game score, 2.49FIP.

- During CM Wang’s last start, I stumbled across coining the term “Oh Yeah” Starts. The kind of start that starts off with you saying “You know, CM Wang actually has a reasonable ERA.” and ends with you saying “Oh yeah.” as in: “Oh yeah, that’s why this guy wasn’t in the league to start the season”. Well, Esmil Rogers had an “Oh Yeah” start on Thursday night. I don’t want to be labelled as negative but I had my doubts that Esmil Rogers is a 3.00 ERA starter, and he Oh Yeah’d his ERA .70 runs higher in 5+ innings of work. The Tigers jumped on him early, scoring twice in the 1st inning after opening the game with back-to-back hits. Detroit added two more in the 3rd thanks to Torii Hunter and Jhonny Peralta, and they finished off Rogers in the 6th on Austin Jackson’s RBI single.

- The Tigers continued to pour it on poor Neil Wagner, who surrendered a pair of runs in the 6th and a 2-run shot in the 8th to Jackson, who was on fire all night, finishing 4-for-5 with 3 RBI.

- Casey Janssen was tasked with protecting a 9-run deficit in the 9th and did not do well in the no pressure situation. He gave up a hit, 2 walks, and 2 of the lowest leverage runs in baseball history. Aaron Loup got a pair of outs, including an inherited runner scoring sac fly. When the dust settled it was 11-0 Tigers.

- In the bottom of the 9th, with the Jays down 11 and 2 out, Maicer Izturis drove in Josh Thole with a single. The Rogers Centre faithful that remained in the stands rewarded them with a standing ovation Bronx cheer.

- At absolutely no point did the Jays appear to be close to winning this game. Spotting Justin Verlander a 2-0 lead is a bad way to start things off and the Jays hitters never seemed up to the task of solving one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. By the time the Jays had their first runner on base the Tigers already had a 4-0 lead. Justin Verlander is damn good. Justin Verlander with run support is damn near impossible. He had 7 k’s, including 3 on Adam Lind alone.

- The Jays managed 6 hits and two walks. Darin Downs had the worst line for the Tigers, a totally meaningless 2 hits and 1 run against.

- The J.P. Arencibia vs Gregg Zaun and Dirk Hayhurst story was the talk of the town, and JP responded by going 1-for-3 and seeing four pitches total in his 3 at-bats. The whole situation disappoints me because I’d rather ignore everyone involved.

- Colby Rasmus was not beaned or thrown at by the Tigers, despite there being an excellent opportunity to in the 9th inning of a double-digit game.

- At some point during the broadcast Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler were joined by some Blue Jay wives, including Mrs. Colby Rasmus. They were asked questions like “What is Colby like at home” which is something I can’t say I want to know the actual answer to. The players being a caricature of their on-field presence is how I like to pretend they are off the field, and I’m content with that. Well… okay… maybe one question about who’s calling the shots on Colby’s hair

- Toronto drops 3-straight and (as you may have heard) have now won just 3 of 11 since ending the game winning streak.

- The (41-43) Jays now host Minnesota for a 3-game set against the (36-46) Twins. The series begins at the Rog Mahal at 7:07pm EST

- The projected series opening matchup is Mark Buehrle (4.43FIP, 0.9fWAR) vs Kevin Correia (4.56FIP, 0.6fWAR)

Comments (55)

  1. It’s tough. Very tough to see this fall once again.
    I’m not trying to be a Debbie downer, but after 84 games, it’s fair to say we might just be a .500 ball club, and nothing more.

    • especially when you look at what our starting rotation is made up of. A non-existent Johnson, and injured Morrow and an average Dickey has really hurt. We needed those three and none has showed up to perform even close to expectations.

      We will not be better than .500 with the staff we currently carry.

  2. It’s just hard to believe how bad the pitching has been.

    I almost feel where it’s at the point in the season where the Jays ought to give Stroman and Nolin shots in the rotation. Yeah, there’s a good chance they’re going to get beat up. But at least there’s upside, unlike trying their luck with Todd Redmond and Thad Weber and hoping they can hold the other team to 4 runs.

    • Yeah, I’d give it to about the 100 game mark. If at that point we’re still floundering as we are, bring up a couple young guys and give them some experience, cause this is going to look like a different pitching staff come next season.

  3. Those two should’ve taken their tops off and made out. Would have been much more entertaining than the game.

  4. Of all the games this week to build a graph for …

  5. Yah it is tough to watch. Seems like the last several years, jays get within striking distance the fall apart, they are such a teaz

  6. Pill***

  7. I gotta give the guys in the boat credit for not heading to shore this past week….it’s been painful – and last night was like pulling needles out of your eyes.

  8. That was my first ever game at the dome. Nearly lost my voice cheering Thole’s run in the 9th. Was lucky not to have had to cheer otherwise. Good clean fun.

  9. I never leave games early. Ever.
    But last night?
    Ugh. I could only sit through eight innings.
    That was rough.

  10. I understand being down about this. On the other hand… the BAL, TB, BOS, DET stretch was arguably the toughest 14 game stretch that the Jays have all season, and they went 6-8. Not the end of the world. (Although for this to be true they have to start taking it to the AL Central and West teams).

    • when we begin thinking a 6-8 stretch against some of the best in the league is acceptable on any level, it is the end of the world and time to pack it in.

      The best don’t come away 6-8 against the “other best”. How sad the idea of mediocrity has become acceptable.

      • I think you’re over reacting a bit. Every team goes through stretches like this. If 6 and 8 against the best of the best is your bad stretch, you’re fine.

        Of course, this is all dependent on starting a new winning streak. (Not necessarily consecutive games, but 10 or 13 or something)

        • They will have that strong stretch, but it will happen in September after they’ve effectively been eliminated from the race. Same as the 88-74 season in the Clemens era that most assuredly did not feel like an 88-74 season.

        • Yes, every team goes through bad stretches. Other than the 11-game winning streak though, the Jays entire season has been a bad stretch.

    • Sadly 3 of those 6 were against 1 team – Baltimore.

      3-8 against BOS, TB and DET is not going to cut it.

      But, 3-8 with Wang and Rogers in your starting rotation instead of Morrow and Happ? OK, still not going to cut it.

      Ricky gave up three earned in 6 and made 95 pitches. At least he’s getting stretched out and making it beyond 2 innings. Plus his walk rate seems to be getting more under control.

  11. i was wondering if we were smart to make that trade with the Marlins they played bad last year and this players are hurt, injured and playing the same as last year. time to look to next year again just happy I did not buy those flex packs. Still wondering why so many injuries, someone is doing something wrong

  12. I’m really glad I went to the game when they won their 11th straight.
    Clearly the highest point in this godawful mess of a season.

  13. #blessthismess

  14. That 11 game streak has essentially been neutralized and at this point it seems like that two week stretch could be this seasons highlight. Oh well, could be a Dodgers fan.

  15. Fuck everything

  16. I know things have been on the down swing since the win streak but let’s not lose TOTAL hope JUST yet.

    Let’s look at our schedule for the next little while and compare it to the teams we just played in the Tigers, Rays, and Red Sox.

    Before the all-star break:

    3 games v. Twins (very winnable)
    3 games v. Indians (very winnable)
    3 games v. Orioles (maybe we’ll take 1)

    So we’re not in TERRIBLE shape before the all-star break, though it’s not ideal. I can see us realistically going 6-3 over the next 9 putting us at 47-47 heading into the break.

    Post Break:

    Vs. Rays, Dodgers and Astros ALL in Toronto. If we can take 2 of 3 from the Rays (which will be tough, but the lineup should be healthy by then) and Dodgers and sweep the Astros. We’d be 54-49 heading into a series with the Athletics in Oakland to close out the month.

    Now I know this is wishful thinking, but our schedule is actually looking MUCH better post-all star break save for our last 5 series of the year which are all against AL East rivals. If we can beat up on the Angels, Twins, Mariners, Astros, D-Backs and Dodgers (which we most def. can) and build some steam, I believe we could be in contention mid-september for the second wildcard spot which we’d be fighting an AL-East rival for.

    The schedule looks good and lends itself to us having a hot second half.

    • If the jays suck after this nine game set coming up its done for the year

      • I agree. Big 9 games coming up pre-break. Worst-case scenario that still holds some hope is us being a game under .500 at the break. If we’re any worse than that it’s GG.

        • Angels and dodgers are no pushovers. They have quite a bit of talent on those teams (arguably more talent on offense) than the jays. They need to beat the shit out sea, min, and hou. Like go 9-0 in those games. But they really fucked themselves by playing so poorly within the division.

    • This is true. I think I read that, statistically, the Jays have had the toughest sched in baseball this year so far. Things lighten up somewhat. There’s this series against the Twins, then against the overachieving Indians.

      After the ASB there’s still all the games against Houston, more against Minnesota, home games against Kansas City, games against the Mariners (albeit in Seattle), and a game against Chicago to make up if they do that.

      They have to dominate those teams.

      • Throw the Angels in there too.

      • if the SP doesnt get sorting out you aren’t going to dominate those teams.

        they still have major league hitters on the roster.

        we won 11 games largely because our SP was letting in half the runs it normally was. We still played some good teams during that stretch.

  17. Let’s not overlook the fact that while this team stinks right now, it’s July 5 and we STILL haven’t seen the full 2013 Toronto Blue Jays yet. Reyes and Lawrie still haven’t played a game together. I think that’s an important point to consider when judging all of this. Not that it excuses the team, but it certainly makes me wonder how different things could be right now.

    • No team stays fully healthy throughout a season. Yankees have had a lot of injuries and have a ton of scrubs in their lineup, yet look at where they are in the standings.

      • Obviously, even if Jose doesn’t go down Lawrie only would have shown up at the beginning of May, Melky’s legs would still be falling off, and pitching injuries happen to everybody. Buchholz got hurt and Boston’s still rolling along (god I hate saying that).

        The Yankees, man, I don’t even think they know how they are still hanging around. Forget the Wells-Overbay stuff, Sabathia is having his worst season in years and they still won’t go away. Girardi’s got my vote for Manager of the Year even if they fall short.

  18. I remember when I thought the jays were going to have one of the best starting rotations in baseball.

    What Sherzer and JV are back to back I thought Dickey and JJ were going to be.

    I still like the way the team lines up offensively, I just don’t see how AA can fix his rotation without completely going for broke with prospects.

    • a catcher that doesn’t throw JJ off his game might help … JJ has all the talent he needs, he just needs to throw strikes and be more fearless about challenging hitters. He does NOT need 3 visits an inning from someone who is in his own head about what is happening.

      • As much as I’d like to pin it on JPA, I don’t think you can in this case. What JJ needs to do is stop fucking nibbling and challenge hitters. He throws way too many pitches. As the guys said on the podcast, he has pitched only 53 innings in 10 starts. That’s horrible. And here I was when the trade was made thinking that JJ was quickly going to establish himself as the clear #1 in the rotation. Apparently not.

        • you may well be right … I looked up Pace times

          http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4567&position=P

          and JJ was already slowing down last year, but here’s the thing. He is now almost 3s longer than when he was dominant, at which point he was only 3s longer than Buehrle who is the quickest in baseball by over a whole second. So he used to be a relatively quick worker. Now he is only 3s shorter than the slowest bunch. I don’t like to see him nervously moving about and then JPA makes about 3 trips out an inning when he is pitching compared to 1 for Rogers … this has got to break his concentration … they don’t seem to be on the same page together … this is extremely subtle stuff and I would hope that someone in the org can see it and try to work with it. I’d like to see what happens if Thole catches JJ for a couple of games.

          • oh, yeah … the batters are stepping out on him quite a bit because he is taking too long and giving them a chance … I don’t sense that he gets into a good rhythm and that has to take its toll.

  19. How in the name of Jim Acker does Rogers end up with almost the same FIP as Verlander for that game? That fact alone makes me seriously question the measure’s value. Rogers’ fucking WHIP was almost three and Verlander completely dominated. I don’t get it.

  20. P.S. I’m becoming more and more convinced that the Jays should not have a #5 starter. They should just let the bullpen be responsible for the #5 slot with 3 innings max chunks. With four starters and nine relievers, it would be eminently doable. There’s a bunch of guys out there who have recently been starters anyway.

    • That might work in a pinch, but it is unsustainable and dangerous.

      • Why? I admit that it possibly wouldn’t be workable, but I don’t think you can say that without trying it. Having the first pitcher go three innings in not much different than what they’d get from a #5 starter anyway.

        • It’s only workable if the other 4 starters are consistently giving quality starts.

          • Even if they are not giving quality starts, what’s the real difference between a reliever going the first three and a #5 possibly going six innings? Is the extra three innings going to really push the pen over the edge? Especially since you would get to add an extra reliever with no #5 starter.

            It’s gotta be better than throwing out whatever recently released pitcher the Jays have picked up to pitch in the #5 slot for any particular game.

  21. P.P.S. Stoeten is going to have a FIELD DAY with at least the first couple questions in Griffin’s mail bag. FREE DAVE BUSH.

  22. Does anyone know who is the higher echelon of the Blue Jays. Above AA? Obviously no one seems to care how badly this ball club is playing. No one seems to care how badly AA has put together the current team.

    They have AAA calibre players at 2b, 3b, C. The starting pitching as a whole is not major league calibre. AA keeps on calling up or waiver claiming all these re-treads from who-knows-where.

    The best players on this team were not even acquired by AA.
    Their sub-par catcher is currently shooting his mouth off at (well deserved) criticism. Why is he repeatedly put into the starting lineup? Who runs this club? I swear that puppet Gibby must have a miniature headset so he can listen to AA call the shots from his throne up above.

    Whats even more frustrating is say they win the next series, it’ll get our hopes up again only to totally blown away by the next bad stretch.

    Trading for a much needed starter or 2 (or 3)? Who can we offer? Trade our future for what seems like a hopeless season?

    • Beeston.
      And they care,if for no other reason than ROI.
      To trade for upgrades you need a willing trading partner with the assets you desire.
      The players have underperformed and/or are injured.

      Nice rant though.

    • You are a fucking idiot.

    • Yeah it’ll be really “frustrating” to see them win the next series. Brilliant.

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