rasmusshirt2

Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times said something that immediately struck me as jaw-dropping yesterday in a piece contrasting Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales, when he revealed to the non-Seattle world that “For much of this season, we’ve heard a debate raging about whether the Mariners should try to sign Morales long-term, to a contract that would range anywhere from $15 million to $20 million per annum.”

Huh???

Later in the afternoon Dave Cameron of FanGraphs tweeted a link that showed how over the past 365 days, Morales and Carlos Beltran have, quite surprisingly, been essentially the same hitter. Of course… Beltran actually plays defence (though not particularly well these days, according to UZR and DRS), and signed a deal for $13-million per year two winters ago– reportedly turning down more money from the Jays– so I’m not sure where $20-million figure is coming from.

Apart from that last aside, how is that relevant to us? Well, it turns out that the numbers for Beltran and Morales over year-long span are strikingly similar to the ones put up by a certain Jays player this year. Have a look:

Carlos Beltran: .273/.324/.488, .347 wOBA, 122 wRC+
Kendrys Morales: .267/.326/.468, .343 wOBA, 121 wRC+
Jays Player X:  .250/.323/.476, .346 wOBA, 118 wRC+

The Jays player, as anyone who read the title of this post will have guessed, is Colby Rasmus. And he is currently headed toward his final year of arbitration before hitting free agency full-on after the 2014 season.

Of course, we can’t quite say that he’s in the company of those two hitters just yet, I don’t think. The numbers for Rasmus above include a not insignificant measure of what appears to be batted ball luck, and only half the number of plate appearances. Plus, if we’d done this exercise at last season’s All-Star break, his stats would have looked almost exactly the same (.259/.328/.494, .349 wOBA, 120 wRC+), though we know now that they were about to go into the absolute shitter.

On the other hand, though, Rasmus brings youth, health, and strong defence at a premium position to the table, leading one to wonder that if Beltran, heading into his age-35 season, was worth $13-million per year, and Morales, who’ll be 31 next year, is being discussed by somebody (not necessarily anybody sane, but somebody) as netting something along the lines of $15- ir $20-million, uh… what the hell is Rasmus worth?

We touched on this a little bit during our most recent podcast, and frankly, it’s scary. At least, it is right at this moment, while he’s playing so well. Naturally the equation will change should he go to shit again, and that’s not entirely out of the question– it wasn’t just last year that he suffered a second half swoon, as in 2011 he hit the break with a .246/.329/.413 line, a .328 wOBA and 108 wRC+, then posted an ungodly wRC+ of 50 in the second half. But if he doesn’t… if he continues this pace…

As of today, assuming the Nationals pick up their $9-million club option on Denard Span, according to MLBTR’s 2015 Free Agents list, entering his age-28 season, Rasmus would be indisputably at the head of a three-man crop of free agent centre fielders. Indisputably, I say, because the other two listed are Tony Gwynn Jr. and Emilio Bonifacio (though, granted, some guys they have listed as corner outfielders might be passable up the middle, but… not really).

So, thanks to the way that talent has become more and more scarce on the market, an in-form Rasmus reaching free agency stands to do pretty well for himself. It also appears that will be true thanks to some recent precedents that are very friendly to Colby and his Mr. 10%.

Like… B.J. Upton is fucking terrible. His best season since 2008 was 2011, in which he posted a .243/.331/.429 line, with a .333 wOBA and 113 wRC+. In other words, not quite as good as Rasmus is going now.

And if you compare the two defensively, while Upton has been better by UZR/150 over his career in centre (3.9 to 1.2), Rasmus has a clear advantage by DRS– +11 over 5090 innings (+2.2 per 1000 innings) to Upton’s -34 over 7688 (-4.4 per 1000 innings).

Since Rasmus debuted in 2009, he’s produced 10.3 WAR, per Baseball Reference, compared to 7.3 for Upton. Using FanGraphs’ metric, Upton has the edge over that span, 12.5 to 11.3, but obviously they’re pretty close. They’ve also both been rather inconsistent at the plate, yet have managed to end up with similar career lines: .249/.331/.414, with a .327 wOBA and a 104 wRC+ for Upton, and .244/.314/.429, with a .323 wOBA and 100 wRC+ for Rasmus.

Colby is, nearly to the day, two years younger than Upton, so that rather paltry career line is all he needs to maintain in order to steam into free agency at the same age, and as essentially the same player as Upton was when he landed there this past winter, before the Atlanta Braves jumped at the chance to hand him a five-year, $75-million contract.

There are others…

Angel Pagan (age 31, 4 years, $40-million)
Career: .280/.332/.420, .327 wOBA, 103 wRC+, -1.2 UZR/150, +0.9 DRS/1000 innings
Walk year: .288/.338/.440, .334 wOBA, 113 wRC+

Michael Bourn (age 30, 4 years, $48-million)
Career: .273/.338/.365, .313 wOBA, 93 wRC+, +11.2 UZR/150, +9.7 DRS/1000 innings
Walk year: .274/.348/.391, .326 wOBA, 104 wRC+

Shane Victorino (age 32, 3 years, $39-million)
Career: .276/.340/.428, .337 wOBA, 104 wRC+, +3.2 UZR/150, +2.4 DRS/1000 innings
Walk year: .255/.321/.383, .310 wOBA, 94 wRC+

Now, we’re not exactly comparing apples to apples here– obviously Bourn provides a tonne of defensive value that Rasmus doesn’t– but there’s a halfway decent chance that, should Colby get to free agency, he’s in this ballpark. And that’s a ballpark with deals that average four years and $50.5-million to similar guys who are, on average, over two years older than Rasmus will be when he reaches free agency.

There’s another, perhaps scarier, precedent we could look at, too. Scarier, at least, in terms of the resources a player might tie up– especially since we’re already looking at deals in the neighbourhood of the $14-million per year Jose Bautista makes.

In the middle of last season a team signed a large extension with a centre fielder who was, like Rasmus is this year, in his next-to-last year of arbitration. He was, like Rasmus, in his age-26 season.

Shall we try a little Player A/Player B with his career numbers and Colby’s, keeping in mind that our mystery man actually had a career year last season and is exactly in line with his career norms this? Let’s!

Player X: .279/.322/.455, .337 wOBA, 106 wRC+, -4.5 UZR/150, -18 DRS, 123 HR (876 G), .175 ISO
Rasmus: .244/.314/.429, .323 wOBA, 100 wRC+, +1.2 UZR/150, +11 DRS, 92 HR (654 G), .186 ISO

For every 150 games in his career Rasmus has produced 2.6 WAR by FanGraphs and 2.4 by Baseball Reference. And the mystery player? 2.4 and 2.9.

Not exactly a cavernous gulf of difference, huh? Especially if you think that Colby can maintain a level above the career norms dragged down by awful second halves in 2011 and 2012. Given that his struggles seem almost the exclusive domain of the second half of seasons, however, Colby has to be considered as being at a high point right now. Then again, so was Adam Jones when the Orioles inked him to a six-year, $85-million extension.

Granted, when the Orioles inked Jones to that deal he was being paid about $1.5-million more than Rasmus makes this year, and was as hot as he’s ever been as a hitter, and was therefore putting himself in line for a bigger payout in the arbitration year they were buying out than Rasmus will be this winter. Perhaps more importantly, in his career he had avoided the Colby-esque peaks and valleys and had actually been consistent at the plate, posting wOBAs of .343, .336, and .338 in the seasons preceding the one he signed in.

So… they’re different. And I’m not saying that I think the Jays are about to offer Rasmus the Adam Jones contract– nor am I saying that they should– but that’s the territory we’re kind of thinking about here, and… holy shit, that’s a lot of money.

With that in mind, as much, lately, as I’ve been been a bit dismissive of Anthony Gose, both on Twitter and on podcasts– which I do think is understandable given the step backwards he seems to have taken at the plate this year, and his over 2,700 plate appearances as a pro without yet figuring this whole hitting thing out– it’s… man. How many years of cheap control does he have left??? What else could the Jays do with difference in resources????? Because… holy hell… Colby’s gonna get paid.

At least, if he can manage to maintain the kind of production we’ve seen from him so far this year– or something thereabouts– he is.

And he’ll create for the Jays a hell of a decision to make in the process– not that that’s necessarily a bad thing.

One wonders, though, if the club will keep on hedging its bets on him and Gose, keeping them both around through this month’s trade deadline, despite the fact that either one might make an interesting chip to help fill one of the club’s many glaring holes. If they think they can eventually get Rasmus under contract for less than some of the other deals we’ve looked at, I’d think probably so. If not, maybe Gose’s time is coming sooner than we think.

That may sound counterintuitive given his performance in Buffalo thus far, but looking at the precedents it’s hard to think anything but that Rasmus may be making himself more expensive than a lot of people realize.

Unfortunately, that’s largely because Colby’s career has been so volatile, in terms of production, if the Jays were amenable to an extension, the longer they wait the more expensive he may make himself. Or– much like their spring conundrum with Josh Johnson– the complete reverse may be true. It may be too risky to extend Rasmus without at least these next three months of additional data, but that itself carries a lot of risk.

Alex Anthopoulos has become fond of saying that the Jays are less worried than they used to be about locking up players to long-term deals early in the process, because they insist they’ll have the resources to keep the players they need to, but– especially with Gose perhaps faltering– Rasmus may be about to put that theory to the test in a very serious way. The next three months for him, and for his place on the club, look to me like they’ll be pretty fucking crucial.

 

Image from another Teespring wizard via @ScottJohnson48 and an upcoming This Week In Jays Merch post.

Comments (96)

  1. I can’t see them getting rid of Colby and replacing him with Gose…what with Gose’s shitball bat these days.
    What I could see is Lawrie moving to second, JBats going to third – and them trying Gose in right for a while.

    • How does that make anything close to sense?

      Kevin Pillar may be ahead of Gose at this point anyway.

      • I’m thinking Gose’s arm might stand him in good stead in right….but in fairness, I’ve not seen Pillar play.
        What’s your basic issue on that statement?

        • The point is Gose is a better defender at a premium defense position (CF) than Rasmus. But sucks at hitting.

          If you’re not going to put him in CF, why would you put him in RF, where defense matters less?

          • Like I said…his arm. One of his strengths is his cannon, which might be better served in right than left.
            I’m not advocating this, per say – I’m just spit-balling ideas.
            Put him in RF, put him in LF….or fuckin’ trade him, I really don’t care. Either you use him – or you trade him at some point.

            • That’s fine, but my point is if he’s going anywhere, its CF not RF or LF.

              • I might be the only one who loves Colby’s defense.Based strictly on the eye test and nothing else.
                Colby’s routes and now that he’s less tenative, make me a believer still.

                • you’re not alone RADAR, I love his defense too.
                  I’ve often wondered how defenders playing in SkyDome can be anything but tentative.

            • He just doesn’t have the bat to play in a corner. You have to play him in CF or it’s a total waste, but then you put Rasmus in a corner, and even THAT’s tricky.

              Plus, AA was name-checking Pillar earlier this month, saying he could contribute right now, and he’s raking in Buffalo– much more so than Gose. Perhaps he’s just building up Pillar’s reputation ahead of trade talks, if you believe that kind of stuff goes on, but I don’t know. Add in the attitude thing from Gose this year (Marty Brown had him sit out a game after some kind of lazy/botched play) and, again, the 2700 pro plate appearances without figuring out how to hit, and I’m thinking Pillar would get the call right now if any OF spot opened except in centre.

              That’s a total guess, though.

            • You don’t put a player who can’t hit for shit in a corner outfield position, because he has a good arm…
              Shifting izturis back to 2nd when lawrie comes back makes infinitely more sense. Plus the defensive value of lawrie at 3rd is much greater than what you would get from shifting everyone to get gose in right

      • ‘sense?’ where do you think you are?

        • Gose definitely has a future with the big club………on the mound. Give it another year and the talks of conversion to pitcher will begin.

          • I’ve taken a screen-shot if and when you are correct, I’ll post it and crown you king of kings!

          • Nope. With his incredible speed, he’s better suited to a 4th outfielder/pinch runner role than as a pitcher.

            • As one of the staunchest Gose apologists of this past offseason, its time to give Colby the respect he deserves. The DRS/UZR ratings are especially skewed for CF in particular so I feel the inclusion of them in the evaluation of the players at equal contribution to more understood plate discipline stats dubious. Colby’s defense is even better than the positive ratings those stats give him, and Gose is the classic example of a “hitters always hit” busted prospect. Between his questionably bad baserunning instincts cancelling out his natural foot speed, his defense being roughly equal and his makeup being significantly worse (lazy plays, when he was up he seemed to ‘run to the score’ and was trying harder for plays in close games, making unnecessary dives etc) and the fact that he is always one pitcher adjustment away from hitting literally nothing while pacing himself to unseat the Strikeout King’s throne, we shouldn’t be worrying about selling low on Gose, lets just worry about selling Gose.

              • Basically what I’m saying is that:

                If its gonna take Bautista-money to keep Colby, maybe that should inform your opinion of what Colby is worth, especially in the looming post-Bautista era where we might end up lacking a corner guy with CF defense who can hit 40 HRs. Who am I kidding, for 15 a year, every team is missing a corner-power center-defense 40HR guy..

                • Colby’s worth Bautista money.

                  Thing is, Bautista’s worth two or three times what he’s getting paid on the open market.

  2. Man, life is full of problems. Just when you think you can rest, a big shit storm starts.

    I, for one, like Rasmus. He’s above-decent at defense and can hit well. But man, he can dissappoint hard. I still think he may be about to put it all together.

    OMG, this is a tough one.

    Oh well, as long as we stick together friends, we’ll be OK

  3. The way Gose is going right now in both hitting and attitude I have to think Pillar has passed him on the depth chart.

    • For Pillar to have “passed” Gose, he is going to have to be projected to hit ALOT more than Gose at the next level. PIllar is not a major league CF, perhaps except in a pinch, so to put him in LF (the position easiest to fill on the field other than DH) he is going to have to be a legit well above average major league hitter. Basically what Im saying is that you cannot compare the two by looking at offensive produduction one for one.

  4. about tree fiddy

  5. Give him the 3/$30M deal. Do it AA.

    • There’s no way he signs that. Did you not read the post? In order for Rasmus to get inked, it’s got to either be in the high AAV realm, or longer term. Either way, he’s going to be a 50MM player, either on a five year deal or on a three-four year deal.

      That is, assuming he doesn’t do exactly what he’s done the past two seasons. By the way, why aren’t we all preparing for exactly that to happen, and soon?

  6. Gose is not ML caliber with the bat. Jays would be crazy to trade rasmus and put gose in cf with the holes that already exist in the lineup. I really gose gets traded before the deadline to fill a hole at 2b, sp, or maybe even C.

    • Izturis is a perfectly adequate second baseman; he’s defensively solid and acceptable with the bat. He can definitely be upgraded, but I wouldn’t say there’s a “hole” at 2B.

      (C, on the other hand, is a definite worry.)

  7. Gose was supposed to arrive on the scene in 2014. So bring him on board. Trade Rasmus and Lind for a number 2 starter and a 2B. Lind is starting to regress. Let Cabrera DH for the rest of the season to rest his hammy and stick Davis out there.

    Let Bonifacio do the pinch running.

    And maybe the Jays will finish a solid fourth in the division.

    • So now we have JPA, Bonie and Gose in the batting order – none of whom could get on first base if you covered it in million-dollar bills.
      A giant, sucking-sound, black hole of offensive production from at least 30 percent of the lineup.

      • Plus the fact that those two together would not net you a number 2 starter from any team? (what rebuilding [therefore selling pitching] team wants near-FA talent?)

        This is some remarkably bad armchair GMing..

  8. Great post. I think Upton may be the better comp than Jones given that Upton seemed to have carried a similar reputation of being a mentally fragile malcontent, whereas Jones was the face of the Orioles franchise when he signed. Given how big of a disaster Upton has turned into, maybe that knocks Colby down a bit. At the same time, all it takes is one team. Colby strikes me as a guy that will value the situation way more than the money, so maybe that helps too.

    How’s Pillar’s cf defense? Is he a viable option there going forward?

    • Everything I’ve read about all of Pillar’s tools seem to indicate the word “adequate” is appropriate.

      Everyone describes him as a 4th OF-type.

      • Calling someone a 4th OF by these “scout” types is nothing more than laziness. Anyone who plays OF and cannot play CF but does not have prodigious power is labeled “4th OF” .

        I can tell you half the starting OF’s in the majors would be called 4th OF if they were coming up right now. Melkey? for sure 4th OF. brett gardner 4th OF. Almost every major league team has one starting..some two.

  9. When it comes to locking up centerfielders, there’s no bigger cautionary tale than Vernon Wells.

    • Woah, slow down and hold up.

      Noone is saying pay Colby V-Dub dollars.

      Yes Vernon wells is a cautionary tale, but not a cautionary tale on locking up CFs. He’s a cautionary tale on locking up good players. 3 years at 10 million for Colby is a lot, but you can live with it if it doesn’t work out.

    • Therefore, sign Rasmus before he “breaks out” to keep the terms modest. This protects against the downside risk that he turns into Vernon Wells. As tough as this situation has become, it could be a lot worse: it could be two years from now and Rasmus performs 20% better.

      • ‘Cause he has low self-esteem thanks to years of Tony Rasmus. You’re right though, his value is surprisingly high when you look at comparable players. Kind of terrifying. Ugh!

        BTW, no way AA would ever make anything close to a V-Dub type deal, both in terms of lenght and $$s.

    • Colby is not Vernon. Let’s not forget that outside of Doc Vernon was the post-Delgado face of the franchise. He had 3 Gold Gloves, 2 All-Star games and a Silver Slugger under his belt when he signed that deal, and if the Jays had let him walk he would have gotten the same 7/126 from somebody else (I’ll save my rant on why giving Vernon that fucking ridiculous deal might have saved the franchise for another day though). Colby has none of that on his resume, and he’s not a franchise face nor does he want to be, so he’s not getting 7/126 unless somebody is smoking crack or the Dodgers literally have money-making machines and don’t give a shit. Yeah, if he goes like this for a few more years maybe he gets Upton’s 5/70 deal, so then why not try and lock him up cheaper for a few years now. Get him on a 3/30 deal today, and it’s his job. If Colby must be traded at some point during that deal, say because Gose finally figures it all out and becomes what he should be, that 3/30 deal is not only easier to trade but it would probably net some good return value. The bottom line though, lock him up cheaper now. He doesn’t have to win Silver Sluggers or Gold Gloves or be an all-star face of the franchise like Vernon. If he ends up being Devon White with slightly less defensive abilities and stolen bases I’ll take that on my contending team any day, especially if you can get that player at something like 3/30 in this kind of marketplace.

    • Vernon Wells pre-contract was WAAAAAAAAAAY better than Colby Rasmus right now.

      We’re talking .303/.357/.542 in his contract year, a 6.2 bWAR, and a Gold Glove.

      That and the Jays were in a PR slump after letting Delgado walk, and the organization was under pressure not to let another homegrown star get away.

  10. I love Rasmus and always have. And I dislike Gose and always have, so Im biased.

    But Im all for extending him with a typical AA contract: buying out last arb year, two guaranteed years, and two club options.

    Rasmus is a hard guy to read, but if hes happy here, and hes comfortable here (no idea if thats the case tho) he does t strike me as the a guy whose going to negotiate hard and squeeze every o
    penny. Not saying he’ll play for peanuts, but I coukd see him signing for around $8 million per. Considering hes making about $4 million in only his 2nd arb year, I think thats low.

    I like his low key attitude, I like how he just goes about his business playing baseball and plays it hard. If he gets a bad call or gets slammed in he media, he doesnt sulk or flip out about it. I just like him.

    • He won’t push hard in negotiations. Unfortunately that means he won’t push hard to keep father Tony out. That’s the man I’m worried about, Lolz

      • I dunno. Tony seems like he has some potential character flaws. Being greedy or money hungry does not seem like one of them to me. Certainly nothing suggests it.

        And for all his percieved flaws (overbearing, vicariously living thru kids, narcisstic) anybody who actually reads his interviews or has read his twitter feed knows he loves his boys. He knew Colby was miserable in STL. And if hes happy here, I cant see him not encouraging him to take a fair offer from Toronto.

    • Why would he take that deal, though?

      • Because people whose opinions you respect were suggesting he’s still a non-tender candidate like a month ago!

        I love Colby more than anybody, but any contract he signs with the Jays will have an AAV less than that of Bautista (14m), and most likely Encarnacion as well. I can’t see AA letting it get to the point where keeping him would be more expensive than that.

      • Posted above, meant for here:

        ‘Cause he has low self-esteem thanks to years of Tony Rasmus. You’re right though, his value is surprisingly high when you look at comparable players. Kind of terrifying. Ugh!

        BTW, no way AA would ever make anything close to a V-Dub type deal, both in terms of lenght and $$s.

      • He still has a track record problem. I believe hes a good player so Im willing to overlook his crap years. But they can be used as leverage by AA.

        • Thanks for your thoughts.

          He does love Colby, but his is a kinda tough-American-dad love. After reading your comment, I could see him “talking Colby into taking the contract.” But, would kind of be sad if he did. He’d be all like “They’re right Colby, you kind aren’t playing that great and should settle for this.”

          But who knows? The man has overstepped his bounds before with the media and commenting on Colby. His Twitter feed is kinda fucked. A while back he was criticizing Colby. Somone Tweeted to him something to the effect of “I would not like my dad to comment on my work performance publically” (I’m paraphrasing as I didn’t want to dig the guys Tweet up) to which Tony responded something to the effect of “Colby doesn’t care, we haven’t spoken in months.”

          So ya, Tony and Colby might not be as close as we thought, but the whole thing is kinda werid.

          I guess all we can do is speculate until the day that 1) AA offers him and extension (we probably won’t know unless it as accepted) or 2) Tony shoots his mouth off.

          The one thing that always bothers me about Colby is he never shows emotion. Whether he HRs or Ks, he always has the same look on his face, almost like a soldier. Like the other day when he took out Ibanez? He looked over and then marched off the field.

    • AA buys arb years not FA years. The club options come on FA years. It won’t be cheap to buy Colby’s FA years outright.

  11. Catfeesh! Thats what some of us call him because he resembles a catfish. He isn’t a terrible player if he can hit. 260-.270 because of the power he can possess at times and his decent defense. That being said, I’m not sure he is worth that kind of money because he’s never been that consistent.

  12. Fuck 2013

  13. I’ve always been a big Colby supporter. I love his defense and his baserunning is also great (in stark contrast to Bautista/Lawrie and the Jays as a whole). He is deceptively fast and plays every damn game on the concrete.

    I wonder what his market value is though. It’s fine to do the player A/player B thing, but most front offices still seem to put a pretty heavy emphasis on perception as well. Colby is one of those guys that never looks like he’s trying (JD Drew-esque). He has long strides so it doesn’t look like he’s hustling and is willing to take a called third strike. I can’t recall Colby ever saying a single word to an umpire. He also talks real slow and looks the part of trailer park Southern USA. So while Colby absolutely deserves Upton/Jones money, I don’t think he’d get there on the open market. It’ll be interesting though.

    • Yeah my thiughts exactly. Just as important as numbers (maybe more so) is the perception of a guy. Jones is percieved as an all star talent. An elite guy. A franchise cornerstone. Rightly or wrongly, Colby is none of these things. That goes a long way towards the contract he got, and why Colby, although similar numbers, has no chance of a similar contract.

      Which is good news for us if we want to resign him.

  14. I just got my EE Parrot shirt.

    How do I go about ordering that Rasmus shirt above?

  15. sickening. If you look at 2011 – 2013 (approximates his time with the Jays and is not just a ridiculously small sample size that is this half year) Colby has a 94 wRC+ and 4.7 WAR. 27th out of 31 qualified CFs in baseball over that time span. Couple in average CF defense and it is hard to get overly excited about that.

  16. fantastic article

  17. Offer him the EE contract

    14:$8M, 15:$9M, 16:$10M, 17:$10M club option ($2M buyout)

    If he takes it, the Jay get his peak years at a decent price.
    Cletus gets a kick at free agency in his early 30′s.

    If he’s only ok, the defence keeps him in the line up and whatever he is producing is likely fine relative to CF production around the league.

    If he’s terrible it not like the Jay are on the hook for Ellsbury money and years.

    I have a feeling that a big talent guy like Cletus can be a monster from his age 27 to 30 years.

    That said, if he’s not , take his age 27 year at the arb price and make a qualifying offer if it makes sense next year, or trade him at the deadline if it’s something middling.

  18. a Pillar/Gose straight platoon will out perform Colby. Let Gose go back to his old swing and only face righties, he’ll be a league average or better hitter with amazing D and a few too many K’s. Pillar will hit lefties at all levels. I just don’t see him ever being anything against good righties. Straight platoon and get what you can for Rasmus.

    • And who plays CF against lefties? Pillar? Not based on what I’ve read about his range…

      • I’ve only got to see him play CF about 10 times and he’s 100% effort out there, the range isn’t great but the reads aren’t horrible. We’re talking about 50 or so starts against lefties with Gose coming in with the lead for defensive purposes. Guys like Ryan Sweeney and Robbie Grossman get by as fill-ins in CF. If Pillar can do as well against lefties as I think he will…his defense for 1/3 of the starts would be slightly below average in my opinion.

  19. While the Jays currently have several problems with the roster that need to be addressed, Rasmus is certainly not one of them. It’s true that he’s a far cry from Willie Mays, but when you really break it down, there’s a lot to like about what he brings to the table.

    - He’s still quite young, so it’s not crazy to think his best is yet to come (8 months younger than JPA, but more MLB experience and MUCH more maturity)
    - He’s a remarkably durable, reliable low-key presence on a team that has already has enough drama and injury-prone prima donnas
    - Besides his obvious attributes like hrs, rbis, solid D, he can also take a walk and is a great baserunner who competes hard, but at the same time keeps his cool and never blows up at umps or teammates or engages in selfish behaviour that detracts from the team

    If all the shit Beeston and AA says is true about money not being an obstacle, it’s a no brainer to buy out Rasmus’ last year of arb and extend him now. Don’t go crazy, but if you have to overpay a little bit, do it. It’s a risk worth taking and simply the cost of doing business. If circumstances end up changing, Rasmus is certainly young and talented enough to maintain some sort of trade value going forward (assuming the Jays don’t give him ARod money) and could also be moved to a corner OF spot down the road if the Jays acquire a different CF. On the other hand, signing him now could end up looking like a bargain in a couple years. At ages 28, 29, 30 it’s not crazy to imagine Rasmus averaging
    .260/.340/.500 with 30 hrs and 90+ RBI’s – not too shabby.

  20. Let some other team sign him to a horrible huge money contract.

    I like this Kevin Pillar kid:

    http://www.bluejaysfromaway.com/has-kevin-pillar-surpassed-anthony-gose/

  21. I am amazed at all the “Colby ha s a great, low key attitude” comments around here. I can’t remember (or care) which commentators, but in general, prior to June of this year, the majority of comments on this blog were decidedly negative on Colby. Specifically his shit attitude, his shit approach, etc.
    Oddly though, it seems Colby has had the exact same low key attitude throughout his stay in Toronto, yet now the comments are decidedly pro-Colby’s attitude….
    Any vet commentators see this, am I just seeing things??? I’m so confused….
    Its almost like attitude has nothing to do with anything, or it doesn’t matter, or we (the fans) no absolutely shit about any of these guys true character.

    Stoeten has been pretty steady on the Colby analysis – he gets shit on when Rasmus slumps, we agree with him when he is good.

    The fuck??

    • This fanbase is worse than a bunch of sorority girls. It’s all personal all the time. Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, JPA, etc. Obsession with whether they are too red bulled, too bad, too argumentative, too lazy, too eager, too cocky…. blah blah blah.

      We don’t know them hardly at all. Rasmus is playing decently and doesn’t get arrested every other week for spousal assault. That’s as much as I care personally. As a player, I hope we extend him. Gose is showing nothing.

    • Two things:

      1. Lawrie, JPA and Joey Bats have put attitude issues a little more front an center. Colby’s robotic demeanor looks much better by comparison.

      2. Stoeten is not necessarily saying Colby is a great player, so much as laying out what the market pays for players of Colby’s similar caliber. I think this argument is much easier to digest than those who suggest he’s really good. If Stoeten was saying he’s a franchise cornerstone I’d be opening my butthole and having diarhea into his mouth.

      • Two Things:
        To your point 1: No, the fans have put their interpretations of those players attitudes front and center
        To your point 2: I didn’t say Stoeten was saying Rasmus is a superstar. I said A. Stoeten’s analysis of who/what Rasmus is as ballplayer has been even-handed (regardless if hot or cold)

        • Three points:

          1. To your “To your point 1.” Yes, fans have put those issue front and center. That’s why people on this blog are more receptive. That’s my point.

          2. To your “To your point 2:” I wasn’t implying that you were saying that. I was offering an explanation of why people are not shitting on him, but appear to be listening.

          3. Fuck you

  22. hello

    • Two Things:

      To your point 1: No, the fans have put their interpretations of those players attitudes front and center

      To your point 2: I didn’t say Stoeten was saying Rasmus is a superstar. I said A. Stoeten’s analysis of who/what Rasmus is as ballplayer has been even-handed (regardless if hot or cold)

  23. Wilner loves Rasmus

  24. Cletus is good. Pay that man.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwEIjbfOHD0

  25. This article is huge…and very frightening. In my mind, I’m not excited about locking up Colby at market value or having to watch Anthony Gose. It seems like such a lose-lose unless Colby suddenly becomes a more consistent player, which let’s be honest, doesn’t happen that often. Some guys are just always streaky, he’s probably one of them. Can you win if you spend that kind of money on a guy that basically has 2 really good months and 4 bad ones every season?

    • And if the average over the entirety of the season equals a player that brings decent-to-significant value does it matter in which months the value is contributed???

  26. Look, I don’t think any serious Jays fan is delusional enough to think that Rasmus is a franchise cornerstone who deserves a ten year max dollars contract, but the dude is young, talented and has proven himself to be a dependable, productive (not spectacular) everyday big leaguer at a premium position. As of right now, Gose has tools but hasn’t proven shit, Pillar looks promising, but it’s far too early to tell what he can do in MLB and the Jays other young position players on the big league roster (Lawrie and JPA) are trending in the wrong direction (JPA is JPA and Lawrie’s been an inury-prone douche who hasn’t hit for shit over his last 700 or so PAs). Add to this the fact that in terms of outfielders, Melky is now a potentially suspendable singles hitter who hobbles around like a cripple, Bautista’s not getting any younger, Bonifacio’s total garbage and Rajai’s best suited to be a bench player (remember, the Jays acquired Rasmus to replace Davis as the Jays everyday centerfielder) It’s shocking to me that so many Jays fans seem eager to run Rasmus out of town considering the fact that the Jay’s have very recently had the likes of Eric Thames. Corey Patterson, Fred Lewis and dogshit Vernon Wells patrolling the outfield. If they Jays feel they can improve the roster by trading Rasmus sometime in the near future, by all means, do it. On the other hand, if the Jays can lock up Rasmus at a reasonable cost (with options) for his age 27-30 or 31 seasons, why the fuck wouldn’t you do it? Both EE and Jose really put it all together in their late 20′s/early 30′s and Rasmus arguably has as much or more talent/tools than either of them. Whether the Jays trade Rasmus or extend him, he’s really not been a major problem as the Jays currently have much, much bigger roster concerns/questions to focus on such as starting pitching, the infield, catching etc.

  27. Just wanted to reiterate/clarify that my opinion on Rasmus is based on the presumption that AA and Beeston are being truthful when they say that money is not an obstacle when it comes to improving the Jays. If the Jays were operating on a budget like the Rays, I’d be less inclined to extend Rasmus. Remember, it’s not our money, it’s Roger’s money.

  28. Pay the man.

  29. Hello Kevin Fucking Pillar!!!!!!

  30. Colby is a talented outfielder and he’s been on a tear as of late. I believe he’s got much more potential at the plate if he focuses less on pulling the ball and more on taking the pitch and driving it. He should be driving the ball to all corners of the field. Hitting for a higher average should be attainable for him too. The guy could easily be a low to mid 300 hitter consistently if he would lay off pulling the ball a bit.

  31. [...] month, Andrew Stoeten of Drunk Jays Fans wrote an excellent post looking at this exact topic and took care of a lot of the work I would have otherwise done, [...]

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