St. Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs

The All-Star break is finally upon us, and when the Jays resume play against the Rays at Rogers Centre on Friday– with Esmil Rogers, mind-bendingly their best starter, on the hill– they’ll be looking to improve on a 45-49 record that currently has them all but out of the playoff conversation. Remaining in the season are just 68 games, over which the Jays would need to go 46-22 to wind up with 91 wins– two shy of the 93 that it took to earn both American League Wild Card berths last season, but a nearly comfortable-ish amount more than the 89-90 wins the league’s fifth-best club picked up in the few years previous.

To do so would require the club playing .676 baseball for the next two-and-a-half months– which is exactly the level they played at through their best, can’t get any better than this six weeks of the first half, going 25-12 starting on May 10th and culminating in the eleventh win of their streak back on June 23rd.

The Rays, who were behind the Jays in the standings when the streak was in full effect, now sit at 55-41– a living reminder that things can change fast. On the other hand, though, Tampa could play .500 ball over their remaining 66 games and still get to 88 wins– just a win behind the pace Baltimore is currently on, and still ahead of the Yankees and Cleveland at their paces. The Jays, to reach 88, would need to go 43-25. In other words, they’d have to play .632 from here out– a better clip than anyone in baseball has so far– and they’d still almost certainly wind up falling just short.

Any reason to think they’re capable of doing that, as constituted, or even with help via the trade market, is pretty far fetched.

Sure, having Jose Reyes and Brett Lawrie back gives the club a boost, and we certainly– sorry, pisspantses– haven’t seen the best of R.A. Dickey and Josh Johnson just yet, but help from Brandon Morrow and J.A. Happ appears to be a few weeks away, Melky Cabrera– though the injury offers some excuse (he started 143 games in centre two seasons ago… think about that!)– hasn’t been what we’d hoped, and the bullpen, through no fault of their own, is sure to regress from the early season’s otherworldly heights, even as it gets Sergio Santos back.

Call me nuts, but I still have varying degrees of belief in all of those players, it’s just, they’d all– collectively, instantly– have to morph into something they haven’t been for the first three months of this season, if not longer, if anybody was going to have any kind of confidence that a sustained run of 102-win pace baseball wasn’t a total pipe dream.

Turnarounds can happen fast, sure, and the break will probably help the ailing veterans, but there’s absolutely no sense in not being realistic here. The Jays have all kinds of talent in place that can win, I believe– but especially with a fresh start and a rethought supporting cast. And they can position themselves very well for 2014 if they entertain ideas like trading Josh Johnson, trading some high-end bullpen pieces, extending Colby Rasmus and trading Anthony Gose, or even trading Adam Lind (peak value and allows Melky to move to the DH spot), or any sort of deal for close-to-the-majors talent in areas of need. Fans wouldn’t find it nearly as unpalatable as the front office perhaps fears– the bloom is long off last winter’s rose– and, frankly, I’m not sure how much of a downgrade it would even be.

An August-September rotation of Rogers, Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle and Happ doesn’t really look so bad, and doesn’t seem all that less likely to wind up finding the kind of magic the Jays need than what they currently have. There are other options, too: Kyle Drabek is pitching again, Marcus Stroman has thrown well (though the flyball rate is alarming), as has Ricky Romero. Jeff Blair lobbied for Romero to be held down until next spring on his show on the Fan 590 this morning, but the other side of that coin is that he’ll have face the prospect of coming up and giving it another go in the Majors at some point anyway, and in the back end of a season with little left to lose, maybe the Jays would be well served to get an extended look at him before trying to figure how he factors into their future plans.

Elsewhere, a bullpen without Casey Janssen or Darren Oliver, for example, would still have Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil, Dustin McGowan, Juan Perez, Aaron Loup, Neil Wagner, and would soon be joined by Sergio Santos (and, if we’re being realistic about the flyball rate stuff, too, Stroman).

On the field, Kevin Pillar has done about everything he can to warrant a look in left field, which he could get with Melky move into the DH spot for the departing Adam Lind. And, perhaps, in some of the wheeling and dealing I’m half-proposing– which, of course, is a fuck-tonne easier said than done– they could wind up with an actually capable second- or third-baseman, as well. And another rotation option, too.

Surely a team that ended up on August 1st looking like that could, at the bare minimum, do as well as this team has in the first half. And rather than stripping away valuable potential future assets, like Stroman, A.J. Jimenez, Sean Nolin, Aaron Sanchez, and others, the Jays would– at least theoretically– be adding to their pool of young talent, while not necessarily raising the white flag on 2014 any more than their performance thus far already has.

Kinda makes sense, I think.

Yet the rumour mill keeps churning out stuff about the club’s interest in free-agent-to-be Matt Garza, who appears certain to leave the north side of Chicago while netting the season’s biggest rental prize.

According to a piece today from David Kaplan of CSN Chicago, a “significant industry source believes that while Texas, Toronto and Cleveland are all involved, the dark horse to watch is the St. Louis Cardinals.”  He later tweets that “an AL scout just told me that he thinks Garza is throwing so well that the Cubs are in a phenomenal spot to land a tremendous deal.”

On Saturday, Bruce Levine of ESPN Chicago went as far as saying “the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays remain the front-runners for a trade with Chicago,” and noted that “the two clubs have had numerous evaluators watching Garza over his past three starts.”

There are a number of places these rumours can take us:

For one, there’s all the usual stuff about Anthopoulos and due diligence, and the possibility of his getting involved as some kind of third party to a deal, or that they just happen to be scouting him with a view to next winter.

For two, in Kaplan’s piece he speaks to an AL scout who tells him about the Cubs’ plans, explaining, “I still think that they will move Castro at some point, which will bring back another good haul of young talent.” That would be shortstop Starlin Castro, who is on a slightly backloaded$49-million deal that runs from 2014 until 2019 (plus an option year), and has been below replacement level this year both at the plate and in the field, where he is not well liked by either URZ or DRS. Would he fare better at second base? He’s got a career .326 on-base (and was in the .340s in 2010 and 2011), a .321 wOBA, and when his deal moves up from $7- to $9-million in 2017, the only contract the Jays are currently set to have on the books belongs to Jose Reyes.

I’m not sure Kaplan’s scout means that he expects Castro to be moved this season, but a devalued asset with a reasonable– if a littttttle lengthy– contract ($8-million AAV) who plays up the middle at a position of glaring need for the club both now and going forward? That sounds a little more Anthopoulosian to me than load-blowing all over Theo and Jed Hoyer’s faces for Garza, doesn’t it?

For three, Anthopoulos may simply be engaging with the Cubs– assuming the rumours are true, of course– in an attempt to inflate the market and perhaps help himself out when the clubs who don’t wind up landing Garza start sniffing around Josh Johnson, having already resigned themselves to losing a bunch of quality talent for a rental starter.

For four, I guess it’s possible that Anthopoulos could be thinking of dealing for Garza, getting three starts out of him between the break and the July 31st trade deadline, then reassessing where his club is at that point and potentially trading him elsewhere. Of course, it’s hard to envision the Jays not taking a loss on such a transaction, but maybe he feels he’d be able to recoup enough talent to make the gamble reasonable. (There is also the pipe dream some fans have of dealing for Garza and immediately signing him to an extension. Maybe. But how often do those deals really happen? How often in-season? Good luck with that.)

For five, maybe he really does believe his club has a shot– or cynically, like his predecessor, would rather serve his corporate masters and sell false hope while doing a disservice to future editions of his club.

I’ll certainly be ready to call him out in full force if it’s the latter. The former, though, maybe isn’t even that crazy. The .632 ball his club will need to make it to 88 wins (and, most likely, fall just short of the second Wild Card spot), was played by four teams over the final 68 games last season: the A’s, Orioles, Reds and Nationals. The year before five did: the Rangers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Tigers and Brewers. In 2010 it was just the Phillies and Twins, and in 2009 just the Yankees. None of these teams were as bad at this same point as the Blue Jays have been so far in 2013, but still!

It’s not impossible, and if Anthopoulos truly, truly believes in the talent on this team, maybe that’s really a thing he’s actually fucking thinking. Which is pretty much nuts. I mean, maybe it’s not as fun as emptying your farm system for Garza, but there are guys to be acquired who can help both this year and next. I expect to see the Jays make some moves prior to the deadline, but anything that doesn’t help the team for at least 2014 as well makes very, very little sense. I can’t imagine Anthopoulos actually, seriously contemplating it, yet we don’t know all that much about how he intends to operate in this new, all-in mode he shifted into back in November, or just how committed to 2013 being the year, no matter how futile that increasingly seems.

Paul Beeston, in his comments from last week, seemed pretty nonchalant about the possibility of this not being the year (bah! we’ll just win next year, then!), so I tend to assume that would carry over to Alex as well.

There’s also this, from Jon Heyman, yesterday afternoon at CBS Sports:

St. Louis wouldn’t seem to have a major need in the rotation, but Garza would upgrade any team, even better ones. Toronto has been speculated as a possible suitor, but there is little to no evidence they are actively involved, at least not at the moment.

Let’s hope he’s right.

Comments (122)

  1. Rather have bud Norris than garza

  2. Trade Johnson, Lind, Oliver, and Casey. Try to get close to MLB ready prospects.

  3. It doesn’t explain why the Jays are watching Garza closely, but maybe they’ll split him off along with a reliever to some third team for a youngish player we haven’t thought of ala Edwin Jackson for Rasmus. The Jays were watching Jackson before he hit free agency (and before the Marlins and Dickey trades) last fall. I can’t recall if they were reported to be watching him before the Rasmus deal, though.

  4. #4 would be boss.

    See if anything can happen in 3 weeks, then give it a flip.

    The Jays could mitigate any loss by taking on Garza money to the team they flip to (I believe that they saved about 2 mil in their baseball ops budget from the draft).

    If Theo and Jed are looking for more quantity vs. quality the Jays could be a match, then AA could go after quality at the deadline ( give several B prospects to Cubs and then trade for an A- prospect).

    It’s the Ninja thing to do after all.

  5. Could be watching Garza because they are interested in signing him as a free agent.

    • Probably not if AA and Beest are to be believed. They would rather trade than sign big ticket FAs

    • ^this makes sense and maybe they have talked to the agent about a trade and extension scenario?

    • Just please rid of us of ErrorinSievia. Thats all i ask. id rather they put a single A catcher in there. Seriously.

      • Been enjoying Josh Thole, eh?

      • Cant see it happening but then we ARE talking about AA.The trade and flip scenario would essentially be a 3 way and hopefully garner some pieces more suited to what the Jays need. Like a minor league catcher at the AAA level or a 3B/2B.

  6. It’s often more fun to follow a team if you trick yourself into believing they still have a chance. No matter how absurd it is.
    For those looking for a glimmer, the graph in this article is fun:

    Yeah, and fuck trading for Garza.

  7. #freekevin

  8. You are an argos fan your stupid ideas are invalid, idiot retard jays fans stop acting like you know what your doing by blowing up the team.

    • So many bans today!

    • My name has nothing to do with the football team. I’ve watched maybe two CFL games in my life. So go fuck off.

      And how is this blowing up the team?

      Johnson is probably gone at the end of the year anyways, so is Oliver. Casey’s value will never be higher, and we have plenty of replacements. JP is shit. Buehrle grossly overpaid. Lind had one hot streak in the last three years, and we are best to trade him and get something for him while his line looks good and he goes back to the shitter (which has already started to happen).

  9. “the bloom is long off last winter’s rose”

    Nice. That’s some poetic shit right there.

  10. 4 players that have ruined 2013 for the jays.
    JJ- Just a huge disappointment. Maybe 2 or 3 starts that were what was expected all year. Hurt for a while too.
    Morrow- Fragile fucker that has spent significant time on the DL (again). Inconsistent when he was starting. Mostly poor.
    Boni- Awful defense, awful hitting. That one is shared with gibby for continually playing this piece of shit.
    JPA- Does nothing but hit home runs occasionally. Strikes out a ton, doesnt walk, has no plate discipline, poor blocking and recieving. Fuck this guy. Also, gibby deserves some blame for not benching him sooner.
    For jpa and boni, its just crazy that they kept going with these guys and expected different results. What have they done in their career to show otherwise?
    So basically, this team is a starting 2b and C plus two GOOD starters away from contending. They cant fill these holes all at once. AA will have to address it in the offseason. The garza thing is dumb unless theyre signing him to an extension like dickey. Also, dickey should improve and buerhle is what he is.

    • Also, im assuming lawrie will get better at hitting because right now he is pretty fucking awful as well.

    • Gibby deserves blame for continuing to play Bonifacio and JPA? I agree that they’ve both been brutal, but who would you have played instead O Wise One? If you play Izturis at second who do you play at third? DeRosa? Even against righties? Barf. Do you let Blanco, or now Thole start every day? Thole maybe because I believe he’s better than his numbers so far, but Blanco was never an option.

      He’s doing the best he can with the scraps leftover from all the injuries. He deserves zero blame for the players he has to run out there.

      • Gibby does deserve some blame as he is the one making the lineups. You are right though, he is working with what he has so AA deserves some blame also. Would negrych really be worse than boni? Is thole worse than jpa? We never knew the answer. My point is its ridiculous that a team that wished to contend kept on playing these fuckers and expecting different results. In pro sports, if you dont get the job done, somebody else should get the chance. Im sure its not that hard finding players better than those 2 bozos in the minors or on another teams roster.

      • When all you have for ingredients is chicken shit….don’t expect chicken cordon-bleu.
        He had to play Bonie and JPA…who the hell else was available?

        • Agreed. Plus there are different reasons for playing both. No one dreamt Boni would be this bad after 3 fairly decent seasons with the Marlins. And JPA has the talent. ..problem is bringing it out. Finally we dont have any idea who dictates who plays. I would highly doubt AA would force Gibby to play or sit guys, but he may if he’s working on a trade or something of that sort.

    • Why would you blame Gibby for not benching JPA sooner? It’s been relatively recent that they even had somebody that could feasibly, physically play everyday other than the Strikeout King.

      • Thole has been up like 6 weeks already. He has barely played. JPA is still playing the vast majority of games. Not saying thole is great, but he deserves more of a shot because of how awful jpa has been.

    • what a stupid list.

      If you are going on expectations vs reality, JPA is no where close to one of the biggest disappointments this year or the reason why they are in last place. Since he’s come up he’s been below average defensively while striking out a lot and hitting home runs, this year he’s done exactly what people thought/criticized him for.

      Johnson, Buerhle, Morrow, Dickey, Romero. The starting pitching is the biggest culprit so far this season, the team lacks depth in the position, and those guaranteed spots have largely been massive disappointments.

      Last year Cecil, Romero, Alvarez, Drabek, Hutchinson, Morrow, Laffey, Chavez, and Villanueva started 90% of the teams 162 games last year and some fucking way and rotation built around Buerhle, Morrow, Dickey and Johnson has been worse… and not by a little bit either.

  11. I pretty much agree with everything in here.

    I had thought about the possibility of Castro a few days back.

    I’m going to look and see if I can find links to this, but I remember, in Anthopoulos’ pursuit of a shortstop after he first became Jays’ GM, that he said there was a particular young shortstop he’d offered Halladay for straight up, and that he’d also tried offering 5-or-6-or some big number of Jays for that one player. It was obviously never stated outright, but most who saw that figured it was Castro.

    Point being, I thin he’s always been a guy AA has loved.

  12. I kinda hope that Castro is not in AA’s sites. His OBP and OPS have declined 3 years in a row, he’s had off field legal issues, and many on field mental blunders. (He once had his back to the infield when a pitcher threw a pitch, forgot how many outs there were,.. etc…)

    He just seems to me like a young Yunel Escobar. We had that nightmare, I’d rather not relive it.

    I’m all for trading the dregs for some young talent but there must be better options.

    • Escobar was and is pretty good.

      • I’d reply but then we’d just disagree again on distractions/chemistry/moral.

        You’d tell me they don’t exist and I’d marvel that you actually believe that.

        So instead I’ll just say I still have faith and optimism in these Jays and AA.

        • don’t the 2013 blue jays make you consider his opinion more closely though?

          Guys like Buerhle, Dickey and Derosa, all great guys off the field. Guys like Kawasaki and Reyes bringing the team together and loving their fun personalities.

          None of that has gotten them anywhere. Chemistry in sports is a thing, but baseball is so largely individual that it really doesn’t translate to anything thats going to show up in a box score or standings page.

          • Now you are solely equating the Jays success or failure based on chemistry/moral.
            I’m only stating that it is in my personal experience “a thing”. Can you create a world series team with good guys alone? Obviously not. Talent will always be the most important factor. The Jays have been unsuccessful for a variety of reasons that many reporters have opined (injuries, pitching, shitty hitting)

            I’m simply saying playing with assholes makes your team worse. Escobar was an asshole, his body language, moping, slurs, and dispassionate play were evident to fans. you play with guys like that and it’s a distraction and energy suck.

            Milton Bradley had world class skill but I’d never want him on my team.
            Escobar had skill but he was a whiney bigot.
            Castro has appeared uninterested, has had disagreements with coaches, and run-ins with the law. Why take that headache on? He may be talented but who wants to cheer for a piece of shit?

            • To add to this, the problem many fans have with JPA isn’t just that he doesn’t walk, it’s that he doesn’t seem to think it’s a problem, and therefore, is not likely to improve.

              That may be wrong, but it seems like JPA could be better if he didn’t have that chip on his shoulder.

            • You marvel at what I think, yet you’re calling someone who was cleared in a sexual assault case and maybe lacks a little focus on the field a piece of shit? You’re calling Escobar a bigot as though the issue is completely so black and white? And dispassionate on the field? As if you have a fucking clue. It’s laughable.

              Oh, and you’re talking completely out your ass about playing baseball at the Major League level with people who you have labelled from the stands and through your TV to be somehow repellant? Yeah, Escobar’s presence is really hurting the Rays right now. Bradley really ruined the pair of playoff teams he was on in his career.

              I’m sorry that you want so badly to believe these ghosts you think you’ve seen, but at this level there are more than enough incentives to offset whatever horseshit fragility you think ballplayers have in the presence of dickheads, and baseball is such a collection of individual events within a team sport that it just doesn’t fucking matter, and it makes zero sense that it would. I’m not saying that’s the same of your beer league team– or even higher quality teams at lesser levels– and I’m not saying that whatever favourite writer or coach drilled this stuff into your head is a bad person, or that you are for being among the millions who still do, it’s just… think about it for a second. It’s ridiculous. For one, ir relies on the idealized view of the 24 gallant ballplayers working together and being disrupted by one bad apple, as though these collections of millionaire genetic lottery winners who’ve been coddled since high school don’t have umpteen weirdos and idiots and shitheads among them at all times.

              To assess the compatibility of certain guys with their teammates from through the TV screen in the few hours they’re on camera per week is literally insane. You know nothing about these guys. You especially know nothing about the guys who don’t have any sort of reputation. That you attempt to insist your team put any kind of stock in this is, again, laughable. How much stock should they put into this thing that is immesurable and hasn’t ever been shown to have mattered? How much extra value should you consider a guy to add or lose in terms of on-field performance because of it? If it’s more than zero, you’re completely pulling it out your ass. And shit, that doesn’t even mean there couldn’t be a little something to it, but if you can’t quantify it, you sure as shit shouldn’t be paying extra for your invented quality, or using it as a reason to not pay for something that can actually help you on the field. If someone has issues with work ethic, or a really good work ethic or an aptitude for learning, sure, that’s something that’s actually got a chance to be reflected on the field. But believing this complete fucking horseshit about nebulously (and falsely, and glibly) defined “bad” people being a “drain” isn’t something to hold up and pat yourself on the back for believing in. Like, how many playoff teams do A-Rod, Bradley, Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent, and all the other supposedly horrible players in the game have to very clearly not drag down before you give up the ghost? Like… seriously???

              • Try as I might, I haven’t been able to pull anything out of my ass. It would be a trick that could probably parlay into a Carrot Top-esque contract in Vegas.

                We disagree on this issue as we have before. Though you always seem to get heated about it.

                You’ve used a few examples of historic shitheads, you happened to cherry pick a couple of future hall of famers I noticed.

                Anyway, I believe that moral and chemistry are important aspects of a team. I also can live with you thinking I’m an idiot for believing it.

  13. At this point, you need to make moves for 2014. . I’m not saying punt the season.

    but don’t pick up any rental players and trade your players so they can be rentals.

    I’d move Janssen, Oliver, Johnson.. Outside of Janssen, they don’t figure in to the future, so extract whatever you can from them.

    Janssen I wouldnt mind keeping, but he’s probably going to command a pretty hefty contract, and the bullpen has shaped up to a point where you really don’t need to have a big contract in there.

  14. The problem with the jays is inconsistency, period.

    Picking up Garza won’t do anything if you still have Johnson, Dickey, and Buehrle pitching blowouts every third game. You gotta get rid of one of the three for the team to be successful. The team can’t win 2 of 3 with the inconsistency of the starting pitching.

    With the staring lineup, the only glaring failure has been Bonifacio. But Lind, Rasmus, Izturis, JPA, Bautista have all been streaky this season, and this team can’t win 2 of 3 with the inconsistency of the lineup.

    So, trade away some talent and build. Lind and Rasmus are at maximum value. Get rid of them, and bring up Anthony Gose and let Cabrera DH. Get a good/great 2B or 3B (Lawrie the opposite).

    And trade away two relievers, including one of Cecil / Delabar / Loup / Janssen. Neil Wagner and Perez might be another two candidates to trade. With Santos coming back and Brad Lincoln sitting in Buffalo, the Jays are overstacked in relievers.

    And dump Josh Johnson and let Romero and Thad Weber pitch for the rest of the season. Esmil will hit his innings limit in early August but Morrow should be ready by then.

    • Inconsistency isn’t really a thing.

      • I’m not saying i agree with the statement “The problem with the jays is inconsistency, period.”…

        … but how is inconsistency not really a thing?

      • You sir have just typed your most idiotic statement on this blog

        • The lengths he will go to in order to be contrarian.

          • Used here, “inconsistency” is a means of describing past events that lack a pattern and giving them a name.

            “not really a thing” — as in, it only exists in retrospect, and is not something you address by going out and getting some consistency to offset it.

          • Ottawa_Jays can’t comprehend something, so it must be me who’s being the asshole. Riiiiiiight.

            Maybe try to have a fucking clue when you attempt to shit on people, thanks.

            • Lol, easy there shooter.

              It just seems like a bit of a stretch to deny that some hitters are more consistent than others.

              That’s not to say that I’m not flattered to have finally been the object of one of your trademark pithy replies!

      • You know, even if you don’t believe that ‘intangibles’ have anything to do with the game of baseball, and I don’t care to debate that one way or another, inconsistency can still have a HUGE impact on team performance. To elaborate:

        Every player has a certain volatility of performance; not every player performs at a perfect bell curve from his average annual performance. Some players’ will have std deviations of performance that are much wider than the normal player. This means their averages will be made up of more amazing & terrible performances than will the average player’s.

        If a team is made up of more such volatile players than another team, it will be more likely to have an increased number of bad performances one night and an increased number of good performances another.

        • who are these players? Identify them.

          • For one, Rasmus has been pretty inconsistent so far as a Jay. He’ll tear it up for a couple months and then shit the bed. his OPS by month last season: 708, 747, 878, 657, 508, 575. Even his really good year(2010), OPS by month: 1,171, 677, 984, 665, 689, 917.

            For a comparison, since the beginning of last season, Edwin Encarnacion has had an OPS of at least 843 in every month except one, in which he OPS’d 807. One could even go back to the all-star break the previous year, but I’m disregarding that because he supposedly re-tooled his swing before the 2012 season.

            Point being, it’s not at all hard to identify certain players as being more consistent than others.

            • You don’t think Rasmus has been retooling his swing?

              • Every month for the last 3 years?

                I like Rasmus as much as anybody on here, I really do. But if there is one word I would use to describe him, it’s inconsistent. I’m not quite sure what you’re trying to gain by denying that it’s a thing, when it so obviously is. Some hitters post more-or-less the same numbers most of the time, and some hitters’ performance seems to fluctuate a lot more.

                That’s all I’m saying, and I certainly don’t think it can be dismissed out of hand.

            • Just retrospective descriptions. Encarnacion is far more inconsistent if you extend (or in other cases shorten) the periods in which you look for inconsistency and then label it as such. You can’t go out and get consistency.

              And you said these inconsistent players have a huge impact because they help you win more sometimes and lose more other times. This doesn’t even make sense. How would this have a huge impact?
              Encarnacion is better — he helps you win more ( at least offensively) than Rasmus full stop because he hits better and is having a better year. Still has a lot of 0-for-4 games surprisingly.

              To get “inconsistent” the way you are attempting to describe it, give two players with comparable value and show how one is actually having a different impact than the other. Otherwise, you’re just telling me that better players are better.

              • “And you said these inconsistent players have a huge impact because they help you win more sometimes and lose more other times. This doesn’t even make sense. How would this have a huge impact?”

                Someone else said that, not me. My only concern here is that some players perform at a consistent level, while others fluctuate.

                • Yeah, I was replying to the other guy.

                  No matter. My point was that “consistency” is not a cause of an outcome. It is a description of an outcome. Virtually every player is “inconsistent” if you are comfortable with arbitrary time frames and end points. Funny how Tim Lincecum, Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, Chris Davis, Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, etc are all inconsistent — except when they aren’t. Just pick a day and time.

                  Therefore, it isn’t actually a thing. A lot of people disagree though … it is what it is.

    • What you’re describing is basically punting on the rest of the season and probably then some, because if you’re bringing up Gose, Romero and Weber it means you traded all the guys you listed for prospects that can’t contribute this year. You’re basically describing a quasi-rebuild scenario which isn’t what they’re going for. If they trade anyone it’ll be for players that can contribute this year in hopes of making something happen, as well as in the future.

      • Yep, punt, and improve for next year.

        Lind, Rasmus, and the entire bullpen are at max value right now. Josh Johnson is gone at the end of the season anyway. Gose was supposed to be the CF for 2014 and beyond. Adding starters when three of the current rotation pitch a blowout one game of four won’t help the Jays win the season — it will just muck up the return of Morrow and Happ, and perhaps Romero too. It looks like Cabrera may not be able to handle turf and you might see him go too if he doesn’t get mixed up with next set of 100 game suspensions. DHing him for the rest of the season means that you put out Bonifacio and Davis for the rest of the year and perhaps stick Edwin at 3B with Lind playing 1st unless one of the three go.

        • Ya punting on this year isn’t crazy, but you’re talking about half the team that you still have to replace somehow. And not with prospects no matter how much potential they have. You need real MLBers to compete next year. Like Rasmus for example. He’s been one of the best CFs in the league this year. The only way you get that value back is in prospects that won’t likely help next year, and if they do they’re likely a lateral move from Rasmus in the absolute best case scenario. Just doesn’t make much sense to me. 2 or 3 of those guys going maybe, but you’re getting a bit unrealistic to think they can replace all those guys with equivalent or better major leaguers for 2014.

  15. Trying to be (way overly) optimistic here. I remember the 84 Tigers had a 35-5 stretch (I think). My faith wavers with each loss but that 11 game win steak shows it can be done.

    • I really dislike all these previous team comparisons.. as well as the many many references to the 1989 team. I understand its just blind optimism, but lets look at all the teams who have sucked (like the ’13 Jays) at the all-star break and see how many of them did anything to turn things around. Are we looking at 10%? Less? More?

      While I’m ranting… I was also one of those guys so incredibly frustrated and disappointed in April and I had to listen to so many people blowing gold smoke up the Jays’ behinds that I should settle down, its too early, too much talent not to improve, etc etc.. it goes on and on. I know what I saw – they were sucking in so many ways and i was right. Of course, I don’t want to be right, I want them to win every damned game but those who say, April is early, the games on April 1st count just as much as the ones on September 30th.

      • The vast majority of those teams weren’t as talented as this, though.

        By the way, you were not right. Not even remotely fucking close. The fact that it’s turning out the way that it is doesn’t mean you had any special insight back then.

  16. I think one of the things Anthopoulos and his scouts need to focus on is deciding how much of this year’s struggles have been bad luck and simple unperformance, or signs of things that can’t be corrected.

    As an example, has Dickey just had a rough year because of bad luck on home runs and some difficulty around his back injury? Or is his stuff noticeably worse and is he too prone to fly balls to succeed at Rogers Centre?

    Has Mark Buehrle taken another step back – his velocity, for example, has dropped a bit – and will he be able to succeed against teams and ballparks in the AL East? Or is it, too, just some bad luck and evolving pitcher?

    What exactly is up with Melky Cabrera? Has it just been some bad luck of his own and the injuries harming him? Or are there noticeable differences in things like bat speed?

    If you’re optimistic about the players, the Jays job is somewhat simpler – add and augment, but you mostly figure that Dickey can still be the ace they hoped for, that Buehrle’s ERA can fall by half a run or more, that Melky can once again be a top or middle of the lineup force.

    If some of the struggles are caused by real skill drop-offs, it’s going to take more than that, of course, and a lot of creativity – which luckily has never been a concern for Anthopoulos.

  17. AA has come out and said he’s not looking for a rental player.

  18. Send them ALL to Buffalo and bring up the Bisons!!!

  19. 2014 da year

    • More than one time this season I’ve thought about something Beeston once said about ’91 being his favourite season because it set the table for ’92.

  20. Trade some of the pen arms for prospects and hope one hits . Every year there is some over Zealous gm that overpays for pen arms

  21. I bet 2nd half 2013 is more fun than 2nd half 2012.

    If not we’re gonna have one hell of a draft.

    Silver linings

  22. I think a team desperate for bullpen help will be AA’s primary dance partner. Detroit for sure. Something like Casey + Pillar + another pen arm for Castellanos + ?

    • Fuck.

      That Tigers bullpen is absolute shit.

      Here’s a different thought. What if we traded Delabar? I know he’s a better asset with lots of control and a better price tag…. But isn’t that only going to help the return?

      If you could seriously turn Eric fucking Thames into Delabar. And turn Delabar into Castellano or Kolton Wong…. Don’t you do it?

      • I like it but for the same reasons i like the Janssen idea. He has value and could bring back a decent return. Castellanos would be what they need.

  23. You pretty much nailed it with this one Stoeten.

    I can’t think of any better way for AA to go about this deadline. Every year someone overpays for bullpen arms and the Jays have a bunch of them. Lind and Davis might make a few contenders happy too.

    Is #4 really a possibility though? Picking a guy up for 3 weeks and flipping him again? I would think the MLPBA wouldn’t like that much and we already have a hard enough time getting FAs.

    Jays are 5 games over .500 since June 1. With a strong second half maybe AA can squeeze a little more cash out of Rogers for 2014.

    Good team. Bad start. Chances of it happening again are slim.

    • Getting Garza for a three week flip like a fukin house restoration would be dumb.
      Not only is the chance he would do anything great remote( even if he won his 3 starts , whose to say fukin Redmond or someone wouldn’t have won at least 2/3). Then you have the whoe issue of what if he gets hurt on your watch?? Fucks his arm up like he did last year? Then what? No the risks are far too high on Garza-forgt it.
      Maybe the Jays are there to look at SArmandijaza .
      Also I agree with smasher. Castro has a terrible OPS and is a bit of an airhead and strikes out a lot. just what we need.Pass on him thank you very much. Go after Wong of St Louis

      • Doubt Castros going anywhere.

        They literally just extended him and he’s lost a tonne of value this year. Epstein and Hoyer are pretty smart cookies.

        • They are, but if they don’t think his value is going to rebound…

          • Would they have signed him to that extension though if they don’t think he’s capable of better?

            I doubt they give up on him so quickly…. But things can change fast at times.

  24. so in a 3 way scenario,
    a team could hypothetically land JJ and Garza,
    does any contender need that much pitching? Baltimore?

  25. Garza’s been a little up and down with the injury, but on the whole he’s fine. They Jays, however, are not. Maybe in some kind of weird extension/major league players going the other way/three-way-deal it’s intriguing, but prospects for a handful of starts makes no sense.

  26. Or you know, everybody could not shit on the whole pitching staff save for a few names, and realize that our position players have not hit the ball well, all year so far

    • I’d say there are 4-5 position players who have hit as well as expected or better.
      I’d also say there are 4-5 pitchers who have pitched the ball as well as expected or better (sadly most of those are RPs).

      Blame lies all over the place.

      • The difference is that it was only the pie-in-the-sky optimists who were expecting anything out of the bottom half of the lineup. The pitching was SUPPOSED to be a strength.

  27. Am I the only one wondering what the big deal is with Garza?

    • Probably. He’s very good.

      • He has only had one season with an ERA below 3.50. Innings eater? When he’s healthy, yeah. I still don’t see why everyone is giddy over the guy. Whatever.

      • I don’t get the man crushes on Garza either, nor did I get it when Edwin Jackson was a hot commodity. They are both #3/4 starters on a good team when at their best. Garza has pitched 200 IP (barely) just twice, and his best ERA+ in a qualified season was 119. He’s no more likely to succeed with the Jays than Buerhle was, and is certainly more injury prone.

  28. Bautista was asked not to participate in the derby by Jays management and he was pretty pissed about it

    • You are correct about the first part. What are you basing the second part on? Says he agreed with the decision.

      • On tv whilst being interviewed he said he was extremely disappointed. Very pissed might be an exaggeration but they certainly painted it as “controversial” so either they put a hell of a spin on it or he has said different things to different media outlets

        it was the first time I’d heard of him being upset, i hadn’t read anything prior

  29. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez cleared to sign with MLB.

    Are we in on him like we were in on Hechavarria? Or like we were in on Darvish?

    Wasn’t AA in Tijuana watching him?

  30. I am not a advanced metrics guy but Lind looks like he started to swing at a lot pitches now, he is no longer patience at the plate. He is not getting on base as much as he did before. Plus his base running is just pathetic. Trade him! On the other hand i am excited for Cubs future. Sure prospects like brett jackson are yet to work out they have too much talent: Soler, Baez, Almora, byrant.

    • Check Linds last 10 games. He’s been abysmal.

      • Lind’s last 10 games:

        41AB, 4R, 9H, 0HR, 4RBI, 1BB, 9K, .220BA

        I’m a bit curious at the walk total. He was getting lots before this and subsequently getting pitches to hit.

    • 15 strikeouts and 0 walks against lefties.

      286/286/393 against lefties overall.

      Fortunately, he’s done so well against righties that he probably has some trade value now.

  31. Stoeten: “Load-blowing” is good verbing.

  32. A couple of position players that would fit the blue jays well (I think) are Castro (Astros) to replace JPA. A package starting with Jiminez or Nessy and Nolin(osuna?) or Gose. Matt Davidson (D’Backs) plays 3b and would allow Lawrie to stay at 2b if thats the Jays long term plan. a package of Buehrle, cash, janssen/Oliver and DeRosa (playoff experience!!) the jays might be able to prey Skaggs away from the D’dacks including Davidson.

  33. I like the plan where we maximize our tradeable assets to get better for the rest of 2013 and eyes on 2014-15.

    Trade JJ, trade Janssen, see if you can move Lind and/or Davis and get Melky into a full time DH role. Free Pillar for LF.

    Man would Castellano from Detroit ever be nice. Its too obvious or something for the Jays to make this work. I mean, Detroit needs a closer, our bullpen is nails. We need a 3B/2B and they have this young stud. Fuck, pull the trigger. Throw in whoever the fuck they want without messing up the current roster or depleting the good talent you spoke of.

    I just hope AA doesn’t move a Sanchez, Stroman, Osuna, Jimenez type of prospect now. I hate hearing the praise for Nose Snygen.

  34. [...] Stoeten at Drunk Jays Fans crunched some numbers and let's just say the Jays are going to have to whip off a few more 11-game [...]

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