Baltimore Orioles v Toronto Blue Jays

For whatever rumours this time of year are worth, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweets some news– or, perhaps some non-news, which… if you read the title of this post you’ll already know about– regarding the Jays plans for Josh Johnson:

There are a number of things we can take from this.

First, let’s get the usual caveats out of the way. For one, as Alex Anthopoulos would be quick to point out, plans can change. So the notion of there being “no plans” at the moment doesn’t mean a whole lot. Nor does any rumour surrounding the Jays, of course– and, as John Lott deliciously scoffs, this is week-old news to the reporters here in Toronto.

On the other hand, Alex Anthopoulos may simply be trying to ratchet up his leverage with an eye towards Johnson being a prize acquisition for the losers of the bidding on Matt Garza.

The more you think about it, however, the more it really doesn’t make a lot of sense that the plans would change.

Johnson, assuming you believe he can pitch a whole lot better than he’s shown so far, is a devalued asset at the moment, so the thoughts of Anthopoulos ninjutsu-ing some kind of magical return for him are pretty fanciful, and not likely to be changed by two or three strong starts coming out of the break.

If he were Garza– or even, y’know, half the guy we hoped we might get– the consideration might be different. But even then, with the club still nominally in the race, you might worry a little bit about selling off such a key piece and upsetting the remaining guys in the room, who still surely believe they can get back into this thing. I mean, I wouldn’t be terribly worried about that– Mike Cormack noted on Tuesday’s Baseball Central on the Fan 590 that players were upset last year when the front office didn’t do more to help them, and though things maybe went a little bit nutty in the final two playing-out-the-string months of 2012, it’s hard to find a negative impact of any of that here in 2013– but you might.

Of course, you’re possibly damned if you do and damned if you don’t if you care about that stuff– yet another reason not to care so much– because Johnson may wind up unhappy if he’s not traded. That’s because if he stays the full year with the Jays and is tendered a qualifying offer in the $15-million neighbourhood this winter, there will be a first round draft pick attached to him, should he choose to decline and enter the free agent market. If he’s dealt, the compensation pick goes away, and the market for him next winter expands greatly. With the pick around his neck, however, it may be tough sledding on the open market– ask Kyle Lohse (who… actually ended up doing pretty OK for himself)– and he and agent Matt Sosnick may well decide that accepting the qualifying offer and trying to build value in 2014 is the best option.

And as sour as Jays fans may be on Johnson at this point, I think the club would view that as a pretty terrific outcome (not that they wouldn’t like the draft pick and the $15-million all the same). After all, there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal, and these are the same Jays who had money approved from ownership early in the winter to go after the similarly flaky Jake Peavy, who had a $22-million option for this year (with a $4-million buyout you’d assume the White Sox would have remained on the hook for).

On the other hand, with commitments for 2014 already totaling $110-million (according to Cot’s, before arbitration raises and options potentially picked up on Lind and Janssen), adding Johnson at $15-million would take the payroll well above the $120-million level it sits at this year. You have to wonder if that’s even tenable, yet maybe the concerns are mitigated if the club sells a little hope and keeps attendance and TV revenues high in the back half of the season.

Much less cynical is this view:

It would be tough to swallow for a lot of fans, I think, but with Johnson still here, plus Dickey, Buehrle, Esmil Rogers, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, J.A. Happ, and all kinds of minor league depth potential (Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison, Sean Nolin, Marcus Stroman, and eventually even Aaron Sanchez), the status quo truly isn’t that objectionable. There really is no reason that group can’t, in some form, be a very good staff. No, really!

Shit, beyond just that, maybe now is the time to try to extend Johnson, even. Offer him that $15-million you’re planning to anyway, plus a similarly priced option or two with enough buyout money to entice him into accepting and avoiding year-to-year Type-A purgatory. Maybe I’m crazy or missing something, but at this point, with a $15-million qualifying offer on the horizon, what if you offer him something like $15-million plus a $15-million club option for 2015 with a $3-million buyout? He’s guaranteed either $18-million and free agency next winter anyway, or $30-million and free agency the year after (albeit at age 32).

Unless he’s hellbent on declining the offer and hitting the market this winter regardless (and he may well be– and may well be smart to do so), doesn’t he have to think about it? And wouldn’t gambling the buyout money on getting a 2015 option for essentially the same deal they’re going to offer in November regardless be a sensible thing for the Jays?

Uh… maybe? I don’t know! I’m sure not a lot of Jays fans are thinking, yeah, get this guy locked up for two more years! But if something like that would work for the player– and his value in the industry being so tough to gauge right now, I have no idea if it does– I think it might be pretty alright. I think. Maybe.

Comments (115)

  1. Kind of weird that Jeff Passan had a story on this like 10 minutes later.

  2. I’m sure Stoeten will get to this (posting before the update), but we all know the Jays get a comp pick for Johnson if they qualify him and he doesn’t sign.

    Thus, the starting point in a trade would have to be an equivalent-level talent, would it not? If you can’t trade for a first rounder, why would you give one up (in the value of the pick) to get lesser (potential) talent back?

    The “downside” is the Johnson accepts the QO, and they have him for another year… and that’s not exactly a bad thing, either.

    • Who replaces JJ in the rotation? I don’t think they want to officially punt the rest of the season.

    • +1. At this point let’s keep him & see what can do for the rest of the season.

      I don’t think he will stay here next season. He seems to do better in the NL.

    • No, because that would be ignoring context. In a vacuum you might prefer a first round talent to I dunno, let’s say a 2.5-3ish win big league second baseman, but for the ’14 Jays that immediate production is worth more than the potential of a guy who’s so far away. Obviously the goal is to establish both ala the Cards and Rangers, but with the guys they’ve got under contract right now the priority has to be on the big league team. It’s tough to quantify and you can’t go overboard in either direction, but there does have to be an emphasis on immediate production right now in situations like this.

  3. My conspiracy theorist sense is tingling. Passan and Crasnick tweet this at the same time. The same birdies have possibly tipped them off at the same time. The Cubs would benefit greatly from having Garza suitors think that their plan B of Josh Johnson is off the market. The Cubs may be angry at AA for calling the Garza-Jays link a complete fabrication. Am I crazy for connecting the dots like this?

    • Yes. Yes you are.

      The Jays do not have interest in Garza. Why would they?

      • That’s… not quite what I was getting at. I’ll spell it out for you. The Cubs planted this to drive up the Garza market (and give AA the finger at the same time).

        • Sorry, I misunderstood what you meant.

          I get what you are saying, quite possible.

          • Something tells me the Cubs can’t tell folks in the media that Johnson is off the market, and even if they did and it were untrue, how long would it take an official Jays source to fix it? I don’t think the Cubs had anything to do with this. It’s not that uncommon to say that you aren’t in on a player — this would not lead to that kind of credibility killing behaviour.

            I couldn’t believe that teams manage other teams’ information leaks.

        • This would make sense if GMs got their info through the media, but a GM would just phone AA and ask him about Johnson, not just read fucking Yahoo to confirm the availabilty of pitchers.

  4. Does anyone know how this works:

    If the Jays offer Johnson a qualifying offer and he accepts… can they trade him? Or does he have the same type of “can’t be traded until June without agreeing” stipulation that free agents get?

  5. He accepts one year flyer, and if he performs like 2013 again he’s gone after 14 he doesn’t we get a comp pick

  6. This isnt surprising news. He has been awful and a huge disappointment. Im sure the jays will give him a QO. The questions is whether he accepts. Its probably 50/50 now and depends on how the rest of the season goes. Id say players like lind and jannsen are much more likely (sell high) candidates to be moved. Despite what jerry howarth and gregg zaun say.

  7. His problem is his 1.36 HR/9 rate, which is more than double his career norm. Obviously some of that has to be caused by being in the AL East where 4 of the 5 ballparks are sandboxes, but some of that has to be caused by shit luck too.

    He has a SIERA, so it’s not likely he’s all of a sudden a junkballer.

    • Well no shit he has a SIERA. It should read:

      “he has a SIERA of 3.68″

      • Agreed. He’s always been someone to underperform his peripherals but there’s such a large gap now that I can’t possibly believe that he’s as bad as he is showing through his baseball card stats.

        He also hasn’t *looked* good which doesn’t help but I’m not pro baseball player so I’ve got to rely on the stats so, well, I’ve got some faith.

        • It’s also worth noting that his velocity is pretty similar to last year so that’s not the culprit either.

        • His strand rate is 64%. His BABIP is .327.

          It’s obvious that he’s been getting unlucky – that start vs. Colorado, his last start in Cleveland where he was unhittable in all but that 1 inning. If I were a fan of Baltimore I’d be thrilled about him as a buy-low candidate. However now I’m worried that he’ll be a sell-low candidate.

    • bandbox is the expression you meant, not sandbox

      http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bandbox

  8. He an ubaldo have had similar roads

  9. The troll on stoeten might just be using different computers every day which is sad

  10. They have no plans to trade him because he has so painfully driven down his value that there is no point to do it

  11. Johnson has gone on the record salivating at the prospect of playing in Boston with some of his friends who have said it is a great ace to play.

    If the Jays qualify him, I could see Boston picking him up on a short multi year pillow contract to rebuild his market value a la Adrian Beltre. If Boston ends up giving up a number one pick it would be at the back end of the first round so not the worst thing in the world from their standpoint.

    • No…….

      ….. Boston would not consider this at all, hence why last year they signed a whole bunch of players not tied to draft pick compensation.

      Losing your first round/first overall pick means that you have lost the largest percentage of money for the draft pool moneys. It places the largest handicap you could possibly place on yourself/team heading into the draft. This screws up a draft strategy so hard I don’t even know where to begin, and pretty much ruins the notion of having a “good draft” relative to the league.

      Under the current system (as it mostly was under the last CBA, with a minor change), the goal should be to accumulate as many draft allotment dollars in the same year as possible (rather than as many picks as possible in any random years under the last system), as the Jays are seemingly doing by not overpaying for this year’s first rounder (the first unprotected pick for next year’s draft, while still potentially having another draft pick coming through Johnson).

      Last MLB offseason there were 9 free agents offered salary arbitration such that these 9 players actually became “draft pick compensation eligible” free agents if they were to decline arbitration in order to sign with another MLB organization. in the prior CBA these were kind of known as “type a” free agents, but the mechanism was different, though the title is the same still (I believe). All 9 of these players last offseason declined arbitration, and here are the results:

      3 of the 9 players ended up resigning with the same team (Ortiz, Kuroda, Laroche).

      2 of the 9 players ended up signing with a team that had a protected first round pick (picks one through ten), and thus did not have to give up their first round pick in order to sign a “Type A” free agent (Swisher, Bourne).

      1 of the 9 players was B.J Upton, and he had about a 0% chance of resigning with Tampa Bay, while Atlanta was clearly working on some sort of “brotherly love” scheme with the Upton brothers. Atlanta also knew they would be receiving some sort of compensation when another team signed Bourne, and saw it more of a “trading down” situation in the worst case scenario.

      1 of the 9 players was Rafael Soriano, and Scott Boras had to negotiate some extreme “delayed payment” scheme in order for the Nationals to sign him and give up their pick (while leaving Boras’ AAV hopefully untouched if Soriano can sign another big contract).

      1 of the 9 players was Kyle Lohse, and he ended up signing (last minute before season) with the Brewers at a price significantly lower than what he would have earned if draft pick compensation was not tied to his signing, hence why Scott Boras complained about “market distortions” due to draft pick comp. While Boras’ complaints are correct (albeit incredibly obvious), if the Cardinals were actually willing to offer Lohse a multi-year contract (as the Jays might be willing to offer Johnson), the Cardinals likely could have resigned Lohse at a higher AAV than any other MLB team as a result of the presence of the draft pick compensation. Thus, I imagine that the current MLB CBA will allow the Jays to offer Johnson more AAV money than anyone (not being stupid – damnit Angels/Dodgers!!!), without the deal being a “stupid” one for the Jays.

      1 of the 9 players was Josh Hamilton, and I am not sure either two Los Angeles teams have any idea how to properly manage their money at this point in time.

      In case anyone is still paying attention, “Type A” free agency in the current MLB CBA has been structured to match the incentive effects created by the NBA and the NFL “franchise” player contracts/clauses. As such, the Jays are positioned best to resign Johnson no matter what happens next offseason, and I highly doubt Boston will be giving their draft dollars/picks to the Blue Jays.

      Basically, you are wrong, and you will find that most teams would rather keep their first round draft pick allotment money in order to not screw up their entire draft strategy. The only team this seemingly worked for last year was the Brewers, and they likely got Lohse at a pretty extreme discount (arguably saved 20M+ total) thus they were probably justified in forfeiting their 17th overall pick.

      Still don’t think that first round draft pick allotment money isn’t “that” important?

  12. While AA has, for the most part, been pretty much a straight shooter – I tend never to believe anything out of a GM’s mouth around the trade deadline.

  13. This doesnt mean plans can’t change by the end of July, or even the end of August. JJ needs to get hot to make this worthwhile.

    • What are you going to get a for 7 weeks max of a bad pitcher this year

      • 6+ years of two players that will never help the team?

        While this might be useful to a non AL East team, you are right, it is not what the Jays will be doing.

  14. Qualifying offer for next year is about $14m. For him to turn that down, it presumes some other team would offer him at least about $40m/3years, plus they’d sacrifice their first-rounder. Is there someone out there willing to do that? Gotta be.

    • Dodgers are flush with cash they would

    • Dan Haren is probably the closest comparable.

      A guy with a great history, but also a lot of injury worries, who struggled in his contract year despite good peripherals. He got $13M for 1-year from the Nationals.

      Granted, not exactly equal situations of course, but I think it’d be hard to imagine Johnson getting more than that on with draft-pick compensation attached. On ERA, Johnson will need a good second half to even match Haren’s 4.34 from 2012.

    • Most teams would. At his worst he’s Edwin Jackson. At his best he’s Zach Greinke. Lots of NL teams would offer him a multi year deal worth triple the qualifying offer.

  15. I’m interested to see how AA might attack the 2014 draft if he actually has three first round picks (11 for Bickford, Jays own pick and Johnson comp) . That’s a lot of pool money for him to manipulate throughout what is currently thought of as a good draft class.

    Unless JJ completely implodes (or his shoulder falls off) down the stretch I can’t see him accepting the Jays QO.

    • I’m with you, great draft class and 3 picks if Johnson turns down the offer.

      If he accepts then he, like most of the new 2013 Jays who have vastly underperformed compared to their career numbers have an opportunity to make things right.

  16. Seeing how the Jays play better at home, I was excited to see they start with a 10 game home stand post – ASB.

    But then I saw they immediately follow that up with the dreaded 10-game-West-Coast-road-trip-of-doom. So whatever good they do with the home stand will instantaneously be undone. Over/under of the Jays winning 3 of those games?

    • Let’s just see how they do during the 10-game homestand first before worrying about how they might do on the road. You may recall that the Jays won four games in Texas (always a tough place to play) during their 11-game winning streak, so when the team is ‘on’, it doesn’t matter who or where they play.

  17. Is gaming the system like the sly devil he is? Read this on MLBTR:

    “Because the Jays were unable to sign 2013 first-rounder Phil Bickford, Johnson declining and signing elsewhere would give them three picks in the first round of the 2014 draft — the same scenario their division rivals, the Yankees, enjoyed in 2013.”

    I mean, even if JJ didn’t have a horrendous year, up to this point, could this be AA’s way of loading up on draft picks in strong 2014 draft? Since the talk was that Johnson would be the cream of the pitching crop going into free agency, it seems like AA went into that Florida trade with several gameplans:

    1) Johnson retains ace status, Jays make playoffs and he convinces Beeston to lock him up longterm extension now that the team has had 1 year of “proof” of a championship calibre season

    2) JJ performs like an ace or close enough, Jays dangle him as the premiere pitching talent at the deadline and get back a sizeable haul, whether they are in contention or not

    3) JJ performs sub-par, Jays give him qualifying offer, knowing that if he accepts, the odds of a second crap year are slim and they get a one yr rental on ace for under market value, which still gives them option to extend or flip for pieces OR JJ denies offer but Jays now get to grab a pile of picks in a strong 2014 draft

    Makes me think AA had planned on not signing Bickford all along. Unless I am missing something here. Either way, all 3 options still present pretty good returns for the Jays no matter how Johnson fared this year

    • I really don’t think the club planned on not signing Bickford. I’m more inclined to believe that, much like the Johnson scenario with the qualifying offer, they viewed either outcome as pretty much equally preferable, so they took a guy who maybe slipped due to signability (and was therefore the best talent on their board), held firm at their number and let the chips fall where they may.

  18. Hey Stoeten, regarding your troll issue….I know two things about computers Jack and Shit, so I’m wondering, does everytime someone hits refresh count as a page view for you guys?

    Because if that’s the case then cutting some of the “commenters” out who use Blackberry could be huge.

    I don’t own a blackberry myself but when I am following/commenting in a game threat or an intersting post of yours that brings good conversation I probably refresh 100 or more times.

    Just curious, I’m half luddite on my mothers side so don’t embarrass me if I’m way off base.

  19. They are not shopping him but if he gets hot and a great offer hits the table well… At first blush, I thought it was other execs playing his price down ( though it is very low right now). At deadline time, everyone needs starting pitching and there will be reasonable offers if he turns it around in the next 3 weeks. This guy has a pedigree that many teams like.

  20. I think the only struggling player AA dealt and regretted may have been Hill. Speaking of struggling 2b, I still think the Jays should kick the tires on Ackley and Espinosa. Move Lawrie back to 3b and use Maicer as an all-round utility infielder.

    • Except Ackley and Espinosa have both been far worse than Izturis so far.

      Izturis: .287 wOBA
      Espinosa: .205 wOBA
      Ackley: .237 wOBA

      And that’s with Izturis having had a brutal start to the season.

  21. I am dreaming on JJ accepting a qualifying offer and getting on the heavy ball program. A high 90′s throwing JJ would go a long way towards a playoff run next year.

  22. God I will be happy when baseball starts up again. Just got back from a week at the Winnipeg Folk Festival and post drug and alcohol fueled madness is starting to depress me in a way only baseball can cure.

    Go Jays – second half

  23. Stoeten, I agree with you. He’s GOT to be better than he has been this year, and he’ll never take a cheaper deal. Lock him up!

  24. This guy is Kelly Johnson v.2. A guy who will accept arbitration then shit out his next season to be sure that there is no qualifying offer next year.

    • Yeah, that’s exactly what Johnson did. He would have hated to get that $14-million offer instead of the $2.5-million he got from Tampa. Savvy businessman that KJ.

  25. This is one of the most ridiculous posts I have read. Offer JJ the qo? The guy who’s pitched 66ip and a 5 era? He’d take that in 2 seconds. JJ is not even worth 2 mil on the market.

    And yes there is such a thing as a bad 1 year deal. Wasting money for no reason is not a good reason. Why not give that money to garza?

    Hey why don’t we extend bonfishio while we’re at it? This team is in last place and stoeten is actually talking about extending the worst pitcher on the team!

    • Banned for stupidity. Next!

      • Hahahaha.

      • So many ejections…

        Reminds me of “Country” Joe West.

      • This banning thing is getting a bit much no? I mean it’s one thing to ban people for offensive language and inappropriate behavior but kicking someone off because he offers an alternative point of view.

        I remember a time when this Ice Cream Jonsey guy was advocating screwing someone’s mother and wishing death upon their family and as far as I can tell he still posts here.

        • Don’t think he does, but point taken. On the other hand, alternative point of view? Yeah, that’s what he was doing.

          • I’m lovin’ the iron fist

          • Not that I THINK this will have any effect on you , due to your obvious limits with dealing with those who don’t parrot your sentiments. You should rethink this modus operandi. It is very strange that someone in your position would ban people who disagree with you. And when I say strange, I could substitute other words are more accurate.

            • There is plenty of disagreement on here. If you choose not to see it, that’s not my problem. If you honestly think that’s why people are getting turfed, look again. Of course, you don’t, you just say that to be a shit, which is why you’re banned in the first place. Have fun not commenting!

            • Nick Lowe said it best in “All Men Are Liars:”

              Do you remember Rick Astley?
              He had a big fat hit that was ghastly.
              He said I’m never gonna give you up or let you down.
              Well I’m here to tell ya that Dick’s a clown.

            • I disagreed with Stoeten on the Juan Perez / Kawasaki Option/DFA article.

              I was not banned.

              Because I was not stupid in how I disagreed.

        • Good ol ICJ. He brought some flavour to this board. Still see him around, but hes far more tame.

    • Hey, Buddy…. This isn’t JaysTalk.

  26. Janssen and Oliver for prospects. Prospects for Headley or Aramis Ramirez. Book it.

    • Ram Ass is a butcher defensively. He’s pretty damn consistent offensively, but I wouldn’t put him in at 3b. This team has lots of offense, their problem is starting pitching and defense. So unless Lind get’s moved and Ram Ass becomes the new DH, I don’t see the point in picking him up.

      Headley will cost a ton – most coveted 3b and I’m thinking SD locks him up longterm

    • You might have to take Oliver out of that equation because he may not be playing after this year and a lot of clubs know this. As good as Janssen has been, you’re not going to get top tier prospects for him.

  27. I could see JJ getting at least a $33/3 offer from an NL team. Same money that Kyle Lohse got. I think the QO is safe and there shouldn’t be a worry about him accepting it.

    Maybe the Jays view that a comp. draft pick is pretty much better than any return they can get in a trade for JJ. In addition to the tiny chance of the Jays going on another win streak, JJ pitching well and getting themselves back into the race.

    • A comp pick, with the way they operate DOES mean adding bonus money to their pool (the amount you can go over is tied to your total pool, so even if you hold firm and sign guys at slot, just having those picks increases it… I believe), so I think they definitely value it highly.

  28. Can someone suggest what kind of money/term would Garza command in the off season and can anyone give me couple of good reasons why Jays should not take a good run at him then ?Thanks

    • Only one reason needed.

      Payroll limitations

    • The Jays probably should, even though pretty much every big ticket free agent acquisition is an overpay. Thing is, I don’t think they’d get him at a price that’s worth getting him at.

      He’s probably going to exceed Edwin Jackson and be more in the Anibal Sanchez neighbourhood, I’d guess. His numbers and his health haven’t been as good as Sanchez, and he’s three months older but hitting the market a year later. However, the market looks like it will be a little more bare this year, so… I can see a team doing five years (so until the end of his age 34 season), and I can see a team doing an average annual value in the $15-million neighbourhood. That would put him in just below Sanchez (five years, $17M AAV), but shit, that might just be the starting point. I doubt you get him for less.

  29. Question here regarding next year’s draft…
    Let’s say JJ doesn’t accept the Jay’s qualifying offer – that apparently leaves AA a draft pick, to go along with his 2013 Bickford non-signing pick, and his own 2014 pick. To my aging mind, that’s 3 first rounders.
    How does the money work for that scenario? I know there’s new rules now for the distribution of money for the draft. We have X dollars, right? Could 3 first rounders conceivably pretty much clean out AA’s money in the first round, and leave pretty much nothing for the later rounds?
    Just wondering.

    • Shouldnt matter cause they get money added for every pick. If they have 1 forst rounder they’ll have less money, but only need to sign one pick.

      If they have three picks, they’ll need to spend more money, but they’ll have a lot more money available to do so.

    • ..further to that, with 3 first round picks, I could totally see him punting one of them with maybe a 5 rd talent or less, sign way underslot, and then take two primo talents and have the slot money for 3 first rounders to sign both guys overslot.

    • Bonus pools are dynamic, and they are tied to the slot recommendation for each pick. So if the Jays have extra picks, they’ll get extra pool money to reflect that.

      The interesting thing is, though, that you can exceed the pool limits by a certain percentage, and having three first rounders really will help increase the amount they can spend– if they can sign them. I say “if” because if a club doesn’t come to terms with a pick, as the Jays just did with Bickford, they lose the amount of money assigned to that pick from their pool, so the percentage over that they can go comes down. If they get three high picks to sign at slot or thereabouts, though, it will give them a lot of wiggle room to get more talent in the later rounds– especially if they pull the same trick next year with offering bonuses way below slot to college seniors. It’s got to be very enticing.

      • I’m pretty sure the limit above the total pool is set at 5% after which the penalty of a loss of the following years 1st round pick kicks in. I don’t think the percentage changes.

        • I thiiiiiink the percentage doesn’t change, but what it’s a percentage of changes if you don’t sign a player. Bickford’s money doesn’t count towards the pool, so the Jays could go over by whatever per cent (five sounds right) of their total less the amount the 10th pick was slotted for.

          I could be wrong on that, to be honest.

          • No, you got it right.
            Rounding off the numbers for clarification only.
            6 million total draft alloment X 5% =300k
            Minus 3 mil for 10th ( bickford) 3 x5%= 150 k Total allowable with out penalty.
            Jays last year were less than $1000 of going over.

  30. what’s the point of banning though in the meta-sense? if there are opinions on here that people dislike, or even abhor, if they aren’t personally (or politically) offensive, then who does it hurt by having things on here?

    it seems to me that the essence of free speech is that people can say virtually everything, as long as it doesn’t specifically hurt anyone. I suppose that the counter-argument is that blogs like this aren’t “real life” so you don’t have to hold to the standard of the law, or even the internet at large.

    I am obviously disliked here because I like to vent about the Jays 1994-2013 and beating some of those long-term points into the ground. But nonetheless, I also try to add to level-headed thinking in between some of my tirades. I don’t like some of the comments here, but I would never advocate for them being banned.

    Anyway, I just wanted to have my two cents on censorship in today’s world . . . I like the blog and would like to post how I really feel instead of feeling like someone is watching over me at all times.

    • Free speech? Tried that. Eventually OCD boy would post the same text over and over and over for literally hours on end, just because of whatever fucked-in-the-head satisfaction he got out of rendering the place useless. I’m sure I insulted him once and he got all butthurt and just doesn’t have his neural pathways firing properly enough to act like a human about it. That opened it up to me getting rid of all manner of shitstains. Sometimes I’m a little too quick to just turf someone, I’m sure, but then I think to myself, do I give a fuck? Fuck this moron trying to ruin it for everyone else and waste everyone else’s time. I’m just trying to get rid of the trolls. Sometimes people who come genuinely by a horrifically dumb opinion get swept up in that net, but I do try to differentiate. [Note: Using decent-enough grammar and displaying reading comprehension and an ability to reason helps me in this regard.]

      Also, sometimes I completely don’t check the comments for weeks. Meh…

  31. As risky as the extension move would be unless there’s an A and a B prospect coming back seems like trying get 3 yrs at 12-15 mill with options is the best move…the kinda money FA starters are getting is starting to get crazy and I think JJ should be able to be a solid 3 starter in the AL east once he gets a little luck and a few more starts on his side. Please don’t ban me…

  32. Anyone who has posted numbers concerning JJ, including Andrew is severly underestmating what he will get as a FA. I agree with Mark, somewhere between Edwin Jackson and Greinke. If you split the difference between those 2 contracts, that would be a 5 year $95 M deal. Annibal Sanchez got 5/88 and JJ has had much more success than him with better K rate and similiar mileage. JJ is 1 year older than all of them with a high ceiling. This year his K and BB rates are good, just gettng unlucky and not executing. So, at a bare minimum, even if teams get him at a discount, that looks like 5/75. Talking about accepting qualifying offers or club options for 1 year of $15M is not a realistic conversation.

    • You’re absolutely nuts. Those are durable pitchers you’re talking about.

      Yes, there were lots of reasons to think that kind of money was possible back at the start of the season, and if a team strongly believes in DIPS over everything else maybe it still is, but the health and the lack of performance have really hurt him. If he stays healthy and rebounds in the second half, maybe those terms are in the conversation again, but look at what the Angels turned down on Dan Haren, and what he ended up getting. Different kind of injury, sure, but a much better, healthier track record leading into his poor walk year, and only about a half run worse in his walk year (by ERA, FIP and xFIP each) as Johnson has so far. I don’t think that half run makes the difference between him looking at a Haren scenario and a Jackson/Sanchez/Greinke one. Not even close.

      Even the bare minimum of your equation, Jackson, who needed a pillow contract first before getting a long-term one, is only making $11M per– albeit over five years. That’s largely because of his durability, though. You’re just… you’re way off. Greinke shouldn’t be within ten miles of this conversation right now.

      • Haren’s velocity was down and had serious medical concerns. He was also 2 years older and never had the peak or ceiling of JJ. I guess it comes down to how much stock do you put into poor results over 12 starts while the peripherals are decent. Put it this way, would you want the Jays to sign him for 5/60 right now if they could? Of course you would? So, wouldn’t it be probable that a few other teams might be in that ballpark and some even a little higher?

      • Sanchez > Johnson
        Not even close. Some dumb ass team will pay Johnson bc of his past and potential but I don’t believe he would get more than 2 years and high twenties money. I could be wrong…

        P.s. I would kill for anibal sanchez on my team. What a steal of a contract too.

        • sure now it looks that way, but that’s largely due to what Sanchez has done this year. it’s an interesting thing, what is JJ worth? I guess I’m higher than most but if he’s healthy i think he gets more than 2.

  33. Things are looking good for next year!

  34. I thought Johnson would dominate this year.

    Not too late…..he will the second half

  35. The most valuable thing Johnson can bring back is either a compensation pick or 1 year of his services by accepting a qualifying offer.

    His value is presumably pretty low right now. I’d rather the Jays buy low by keeping him instead of selling low.

    • Well, they’re not buying THAT low. Still $15-million. But I agree– no such thing as a bad one-year deal.

      • Unless its for jpa or Boner facio you mean, right stoets mcgoats?

      • Sure and there’s opportunity cost and all that. And we don’t know what the Jays budget is for 2014.

        Heck, if some combination of Johnson, Janssen & Oliver can bring back Castellanos by adding a 3rd or 4th team, I’m all for it.

        Though I’m still crossing my fingers that JPA & Oliver can be traded for Carlos Ruiz and a prospect. Actually, fuck the prospect…

        Realistically, though, there might not be a team that would even be willing to eat all of Johnson’s salary for the rest of the year.

        Considering the Jays’ goal for 2014 and the potential for a comp pick/JJ accepting his qualifying offer, I suspect Johnson is more valuable to Toronto than anyone else.

    • it’s a sandwich pick, not a first rounder. just as i think team’s will pay JJ more than others believe in free agency, i also think they will give up a prospect worth more than the value of a sandwich pick. That+ saving $4.5M this year + not willing to go at least 4 on him for market value all means he will be moved.

  36. Methinks JJ is not on the market because AA is insulted by the offers he’s received so far.

  37. Regarding JJ , and the fact I think they end up keeping him for the year as well and then give him a QO, I ‘m wondering, truthfully, if he would even sign here for 3 years even if we offered it to him.
    The man is aloof as far as sort of “saying the right things”. You know he has never said directly or indirectly how much he would like it here bla bla that pending FAs generally do, even if they know there is a good chance they will FO.
    I never really see him get interviewed or hang around much with some of the key playeres and he usually either sits by himself or with Buerhle. Comments from Howarth that he is aloof as well. Not necessarily bad, but I just don’t seem to get a lot of vibes from this guy. It’s as though his heart is in SF or someplace.Anyway, I was wondering if anyone else feels this way or do you think I am just passing smoke thru my ass, which i have been known to do from time to time.
    Forward Soviet! Da

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *