Rowdy-Tellez

Me a bad athlete? ME?? A bad athlete??? I just… I’ll have him eaten for that! By me. After brunch.

Once again this week, after the release of his mid-season top prospects list, which we discussed in the previous post, it seems a worthy venture to once again lay down some Law, as there were a few Jays-related tidbits in today’s Keith Law chat with readers at ESPN.com.

As always, I have not read any of Griffin’s answers.

Erich (CT)
How do you project AJ Jimenez’s future in the majors? Average regular? Star? I ask because I cant take Arencibia behind the plate anymore.
Klaw
Backup.

This seems, generally, to be the take on Jimenez. Kiley McDaniel tweeted the same sentiment yesterday, as well. However, at Baseball Prospectus, Jason Parks had a different take– albeit, with a caveat:

I thought his batting practice was outstanding, as he showed off more power than I expected, sending rockets to the pull side and making the “sound” off the ball that I originally confused for another player. I like the bat a lot. The glove was good, but the arm action on the throws was long and the throws lacked zip. Limited sample.

Works for me, so… I’m just going to go ahead and believe the guy who’s telling me what I want to hear.

Speaking of what I want to hear, this isn’t it:

Jamal (Florida)
What do you think about Cord Sandberg? Seems like a high-potential, raw guy.
Klaw
Exactly. Good pick by the Phils. Liked their draft a lot.

Wait for it…

Henry (Windsor)
How is Sandburg different than Tellez? Both big power guys with less than ideal hit tools.
Klaw
You just compared one of the draft’s best athletes to one of its worst. How do I have to clarify this?

Ted (Wilmington)
Over/under on the number of years before Rowdy Tellez is playing in a slow pitch softball game on ESPN?
Klaw
That’s mean. Five and a half.

JC (Winnipeg)
That high on Tellez, huh?
Klaw
I didn’t get that signing at all. Then again I wasn’t wild about Bickford, so the Jays and I don’t really line up on amateurs.

Hey so that’s awesome– for whatever it’s worth, of course. That’s Tellez in the picture at the top of the post, by the way.

Jon (NYC)
I recognize that the injuries d’Arnaud has suffered have affected his status as a prospect but, considering that the latest one was a freakish type of injury and that you thought enough of him to have him 14th on your preseason list, dropping him off the mid-season list entirely seems a bit harsh. Are you now convinced that he just won’t ever be healthy enough to cash in on his talent?
Klaw
Harsh? This will be the fourth time in six full years that he’s failed to play 100 games in a season. I love the tools, but if you can’t stay healthy enough to catch full-time, you’re not a top 50 prospect.

Lenny (Philadelphia)
Say we lived in an alternate universe in which Travis d’Arnaud had been healthy all year, and produced up to expectations. Where would he have ranked int he mid-season top 50?
Klaw
Teens.

This all sounds oddly familiar.

Andy (Madison, WI)
As a front office exec towards the end of the “loosey-goosey era” did you know of any PED users or was it just suspected or likely guys? Obviously, not looking for names, just knowledge of front offices at the time with regards to the issue.
Klaw
Knew of one big leaguer and I think three minor leaguers. If we had others, I wasn’t aware of it.

To Baseball Reference! And remember, KLaw worked for the Jays from January of 2001 to May of 2006. Y’know… if for some reason you give enough of a shit to try and Sherlock Holmes this.

Kevin (Toronto)
Keith, have you seen Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez? Does he have top 50 prospect kind of talent?
Klaw
I have not. What I’ve heard is plus fastball with sink, plus slider, fringy CH. I think he’ll get paid big-time the way Soler and Puig did last summer, because he’s not subject to the int’l signing budget caps.

I’d hit it.

Joe (Chicago)
Keith, is this a fair top six for next years draft as of now (in no order): Turner, Rodon, Beede, A. Jackson, Gatewood, and Kolek?
Klaw
Looks like you’re skimming from reports … Freeman over Beede is one obvious disagreement I’d have.

In case it’s not clear, Law isn’t as high on Beede as some. I’m pretty sure he’s tweeted something to this effect as well– though don’t quote me (read: him) on that.

Bonus Prospecting!

Here are a couple extra tidbits via the Twitter, where Zach Mortimer was talking Jays a little bit this afternoon, as was Chris King, who is hopeful the weather holds off for tonight’s matchup in Dunedin, where Aaron Sanchez will hopefully get a chance to face Byron Buxton (also: J.A. Happ will be making a rehab appearance).

Regarding Marcus Stroman, FYI:

Comments (83)

  1. Fielder isnt a good athlete but the guy can still rake. You dont need a 1b/dh to be a good athlete necessarily. If the dude can get on base and has pop thats good enough for me.

    • Fielder’s probably a better athlete than you give him credit for, I think. Bad body, yes.

      I would reckon the lack of athleticism is mentioned specifically because it’s believed it CAN impact performance, so it’s not a non-issue, even with a 1B/DH type.

      • just out of sheer interest, is there any way to view stats about a blog such as djf? (daily traffic etc.) I noticed on the Tao of Stieb that there is a handy little button that allows you to view everything . . . just a wonderin’ . . .

        • Nah. Not that we’d make available, at least.

          • I read somewhere that Prince ran a 6.8 60 in his senior year of his school…with his frame I’d say that’s very athletic…Tellez seems like a fun wild card signing though so why not right?

            • Exactly. It’s not my money.
              Plus they signed him after they managed to play around with the numbers for other guys and make it work. So they didn’t really LOSE anything in the deal
              … unless you think they lost the ability to sign Bickford I guess.

        • Aaron, what’s your deal with site traffic. You asked about it a couple of days ago too.
          Planning on paying more than coors light so you can get your company on the top of the page? Lol

    • Not that he hits too many, but that triple Prince hit in the ASG was a fair display of athleticism. He may be chunky, but since he became a starter in 2006, he’s never been on the DL and only missed 15 games (total) over that period. I don’t think body type has a whole lot to do with durability. Sabathia and David Wells are other examples of fat tubs of lard who could stay healthy.

  2. Gotta agree about Bickford but really because unless you are getting a stud pitcher, take a position player with your first round pick.

  3. That is not what I pictured when I heard the awesome name Rowdy Tellez

    • I just can’t see him panning out in the big time, my honest first impression.

      Reminiscent of another first baseman with pop and a tantalizing name: Art Charles

      • Since that laughable impression is based on absolutely fucking nothing, I think that’s OK.

        • that caption makes me laugh every time.

          • You have decided that he’s not good at baseball, based on his picture? I looked at picture of Greg maddux as a kid. He was weak looking and seemed like a bit of a nerd. He obviously was shit, amiright?

            • you’re right, if you don’t have something nice to say in a public forum…….

              but then again, maybe some people might be interested in what someone has to say,

              maybe this is a chat forum where people share and discuss ideas… have any?

              care to discuss first impressions?

              • It’s not about not being nice, it’s about being completely ridiculous.

                • Ok instead of waiting for PG to respond, I wish to continue on this thread…

                  Looking at Greg Maddux as a kid, one might think, this guy doesn’t have the raw natural tools that you look for in an athlete. If he has any chance of success, he’s got to have incredible control(command), and utilize his intelligence to pitch very smartly and outwit his opponents…

                  Looking at Rowdy Tellez (and it was another photo I saw), my first impression was this guy is not that intelligent, if he’s made it this far it’s based most likely on his ability to mash (soft?) pitching. Pitcher’s who are not of a high calibre (i.e. major leaguers), who can & will adjust & exploit your weaknesses as a hitter, not to mention have incredible repetoires, etc… It’s a thinking person’s game (plus the physical ability), but to think Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, David Ortiz, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, (and on and on), are not highly intelligent people is to discredit one of their greatest assets… That’s all I’m saying. What’s between the ears counts a lot, and beyond being able to hit straight & easy stuff, I wonder how Tellez will be able to make the jump to more complex patterns & approaches to hitting, beyond see ball hit ball, although guys like that (Vlady G. comes to mind), are known to exist, I happen to think Vlady G. is also a very intelligent person/player…. hence why I immediately thought, this guy doesn’t look like a big leaguer to me. People said that about Kevin Youkilis too (unorthodox) but obviously he’s put it together in a way that works for him. I guess we’ll have to wait & see in this case, but yes I trust my powers of perception. I don’t expect anyone to blindly accept my perceptions, but then again, I’m not asking you to.

                  • Let me stop you at the first sentence, because that’s where I stopped. You can see Greg Maddux’s tools through a photo? And you go on talking as though such a statement isn’t utter horseshit?

                    HOLY SHIT. I tried your second sentence and you discerned Tellez’s intelligence from another photo???

                    I don’t honestly have to hand-hold you through how that’s dumb and completely assholish, do I? You do not have magical powers to see these things through photographs. Stop talking like you do.

                    And maybe stop acting like the fucking wizard who realized that a 17-year-old was going to be facing soft competition, too, while you’re at it. Jesus christ…

                    • Yeah, that is a hell of a terribly stupid thing to say – “he didn’t look that intelligent in the photo.” What makes it even funnier is that in the very next sentence, the guy pluralized the word “pitcher” by adding an apostrophe! I think you lose a great deal of credibility on your opinion of intelligence if you do something like that.
                      But yeah, the picture comments. Haha.

                    • Then again, I think my comment was too harsh. I am sorry.

                    • Stoeten, most people tend to perceive body size as an indicator of strength and/or speed. Why’s that so hard to believe if you see a picture of a guy and one of your first thoughts is, “He’s scrawny, he probably doesn’t throw that hard.” ?

  4. “As always, I have not read any of Griffin’s answers.”

    Really?

  5. Over the past six months Ryan “Rowdy” Tellez (1B/OF), out of Elk Grove High School (Elk Grove, CA), has routinely put on some of the more impressive batting practice displays you will see on the summer/fall circuit, but he has also showed a high degree of volatility in his in-game production. The mountainous lefty bat could profile as an impact power threat, but needs to clean-up his approach (and even then may always have a fair amount of swing and miss to his game).
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19192

  6. There’s a great writeup in Monday’s BP minor league roundup about Franklin Barreto. Bad news is that he has footwork issues and may not stick at shortstop.
    The good news is that he has an impressive hit tool and advanced pitch recognition. He is 17 and in complex league.Very interesting

    • The Jays Plus podcast talked to Ben Badler about him (and other international signings). Sounded very positive– not superstar qualities, mind you, but definitely an above average guy. I think Shane Victorino was the comp, though that may have been on someone else.

  7. i thought that was Bartolo

  8. Bold prediction:

    This time next summer Smoral is a regular on top 50 lists.

  9. Wow. So many opinions on prospects and so many blogs with differing thoughts. Maybe we should just cut the Internet shorter?

  10. Is it wrong to hope TDA never plays a game in the majors?

    • Yes.

    • Well that would depend…

      A: Do you know TDA personally and have a legitimate beef with him (Of the “he slept with my GF level of beef)?

      B: Do you have any inside information that TDA is a reprehensible human being?

      If the the answer to A or B is “no” then yes it is wrong to hope TDA never plays a game in the majors. That’s just wishing ill on someone for absolutely no reason.

    • Really? Could you not have answered your own question by posing the same question in reverse – “Is it wrong for TDA to hope my band breaks up?”

  11. sup?

  12. Esmil vs Price tomorrow. I’d love if we could make a statement right out of the second half gate.

    Anyone know if we’ll have Melky available?

  13. Law’s comment about the Tellez signing is pretty irrelevant though. He’s a 30th round pick, if he doesn’t pan out then who gives a shit. They were under their total bonus allotment, so it didn’t really matter in that respect. The ONLY argument that has any merit, is if you think the money they spend on him could have been re-allocated to Bickford. And in that case, there is still no guarantee Phil would have signed.

    I still think it was the Jays entire strategy to not sign their 1st round, and instead pocket the pick for next years, much deeper draft.

    • I think you hit on a good point suggesting that, if Tellez is nothing, maybe they should have used that money to up their offer to Bickford. Obviously, though, they don’t agree with Law on Tellez– nor do the sites like BA that had him in the top 100 (top 60 even, IIRC).

      Also, gotta say, there’s really no way punting the pick was their strategy.

      • Not even if they know how much stronger next year’s class is supposed to be?

        • Yeah Stoets, I dunno. I mean I have obviously no proof that it was. But I don’t see why it couldn’t be. If its a deeper draft, and they had a bumper crop last year…why not? It kinda does , in my mind at least, seem like something AA would consider doing.

          By my calculations, even after they gave the 700,000 to Brentz, and the 850,000 to Tellez, they had 3.66 mil to offer to Bickford. Would 4.51mil have done the trick? Would the Jays even offer that much? Once the unspoken medical records were read by the Jays, maybe they didn’t even offer anymore than 40% of slot.

          Bickford was 20, Tellez was 59 in BA’s rankings, so you’re right the Jays aren’t the only ones high on Tellez.

          • It’s beyond unlikely to be a thing. They would not give a giant, pointless fuck you to the agent– er… “advisor”– and the kid, or concoct some medical bullshit, and offer them 40% of slot. You don’t think somebody would make a stink about such bad faith actions? Or at the very least leak it? And even if they somehow didn’t, it’s still bad business. Apart from the loss of bonus pool money and the extra year wait to make the pick (which the Jays apparently were OK with, believing that getting Brentz and Tellez and 2014 being a stronger draft offset it), Bickford’s advisor (per: http://www.sportsagentblog.com/2013/06/10/2013-mlb-draft-round-1-advisorsplayers-list/) is Greg Genske, who is the head of a really big agency (Legacy Group), which represents Jose Reyes and Maicer Izturis, among others. It is pretty unfeasible that the Jays would have come in offering 40% of slot no matter what, in order to very obviously punt on the pick. It is entirely feasible that they made a good faith offer of slot money and were essentially indifferent to whether they got Bickford into the system now or the 11th pick in a stronger draft down the road. Why is that so hard to believe? Staying firm on slot meant getting Bickford at a discount, plus the other two picks. Blowing the pick on purpose just doesn’t make sense– especially since it’s not like the 2014 draft is being written up as some kind of LeBron-Carmello-Wade-Bosh draft, it’s just a bit deeper. How much more talent would they really be expecting to get? It’s just silly.

            • I believe you missed Darko in that draft class.
              But yeah, I agree, no punt of the pick.
              They made their offer and the guy took some bad advice.

            • Maybe Bickford’s medical tests showed that he doesn’t have a UCL. So they slashed their offer.

              • Most of what’s out there has been pretty clear that the issue was not medical, from my reading of it. Nobody has suggested it was medical, and if it was, 40% of slot value is a lot of money, if there’s a chance the kid had a serious arm issue– might be more incentive to take a deal.

                • Ok, ok. However, medical records can’t be seen by team until after the pick, so who knows what was found. Maybe not as low as 40% of slot, but maybe less than slot – we really don’t know on this one.

                  And “intentionally punting the pick” might have been a little strong word usage on my part; indifference, with a desire for the offer to not be accepted is probably better terminology.

                  Even after Brentz/Tellez, they had 3.66mil left before incurring penalties, and slot was 2.92mil. Therefore, I gotta think if you offer less than 3.66mil – you’re signalling you are indifferent to him signing.

                  As to ‘bad advice’ given to Bicks – that is something I think we can all agree on.

  14. can we just stop with all the posts about D’Arnaud and Syndergaard? We don’t need constant reminders about how shitty that trade is looking right now. It’s time for Jays fans to move on, I don’t see what the point is in closely following the careers of D’Arnaud and Syndergaard anymore

  15. Logically speaking, if you don’t have someone you think is a ‘sure thing’ wouldn’t the best way to draft be to take JPR type cheap college senior guys in the first two rounds and then blow all that extra money on signability guys later in the draft?

    I know the Jays did that with their second rounder (injury, not age, but same principle) but I feel like you’d get more overall value if you extended the idea to cover the first round pick (again, unless someone falls to you) as well.

  16. @faketeams: whoa.@TimCowlishaw reports that it is very likely that the Rangers will deal Jurickson Profar this offseason, if not sooner.

    • Gimme gimme gimme
      I need some more
      Gimme gimme gimme
      Don’t ask what for

    • We’ve obviously go to take outlandish statements like that with a grain of salt but looking at Dave Cameron’s trade value rankings (not that he has any authority on the matter but, still, just for fun)….

      Profar clocks in at #26. Fuck, it’d be cool to see who they could get for him. Don’t know if Marlins would be interested but Stanton is an obvious target. Who else is out there? Price? Kershaw?

      Maybe just a prospect for prospect swap?

      • Him for price is obviously good

      • Profar hasn’t impressed me with the bat yet so far in the few games I’ve seen him play… kids still young tho’ (20). #’s in the minors look pretty good, so maybe he’ll be a .270 hitter with like 10 homers in a couple of years… a career like Edgar Renteria?

        • Smart for Jon Daniel’s to trade him while his stock is as high as it is, in my opinion..

        • STOP. Seriously. You do not have the ability to look at a kid and project his future. For fuck sakes.

          • Little do you know that many of the top MLB scouts troll your forums.

            • it’s not like I haven’t watched the game for over 20 years & played it as well for the same amount of time… and still do. Not like that says anything in itself, but when it’s been studied passionately for large amounts of time, as well as practiced, albeit not at a pro level, but I’m not playing T-ball either… I’m confident in what I say (obviously) and can debate anyone about the game… It doesn’t take geniuses, I’ve read many, many insightful & intelligent comments all over the Internet from casual observers to paid professionals…

              • You can offer all kinds of valuable insight with that background, absolutely. Just not scouting intelligence and tools through a damn photo.

                • was I quick to judge Tellez, sure. But honestly, I was surprised upon seeing the photo that he was awarded $850K for hitting homers off of17 year-olds as a veritable man-child.

                  Not saying he won’t be a great player, but I sure as heck would be surprised.

                  Someone’s question to Klaw (i think) on “How long before this guys hitting homers in a slo-pitch league, over/under 5.5 yrs?” (paraphrasing), was just as insightful as my own.

                  His response I think was, that’s mean, but under 5.5.

                  I don’t think I’m the only one…

                  • Yes, but Law didn’t simply look at a photo. And BA had Tellez high and the Jays obviously thought he was worth a bonus in the high six figures. I see what you’re saying, but… yeah, no.

                    • I think we’re nitpicking over what can/cannot be seen through a photograph. And also, who’s to say who can/cannot perceive something through a photograph/someone’s energetic field, even through … typing.

                      Stoeten: Have you read your caption?

                      I make one off-the-cuff remark, followed up by a comparison to Art Charles (for humour), and then critique critique critique. Can’t I just say what I feel? What’s wrong with that?

                    • P.s. I’ve been guilty of overly criticizing people, as well as the other side of that. We’re all just here for fun aren’t we?

                    • and of course, baseball & blue jays related info;

                      which is often unique & valuable from visiting this site… other people say thanks for this service, as I am thankful, but we also employ you through our attention & traffic…

                • Don’t be so quick to judge – for example if the man was completely lacking arms and legs, you can probably guess he might struggle without some decent prosthetic limbs. Or if you could make out quite clearly that he was dead. Short of being Jesus then, he is probably not getting past AA-ball.

          • who does? we’re talking probabilities here

  17. Rowdy Tellez = Randy Ruiz with upside?

  18. Since we’re on the very imprecise art/science of scouting, were you guys aware of this:

    http://scouts.baseballhall.org/

    You can access the scans of original scouting reports for thousands of big leaguers. A great way to blow a few hours.

  19. “a nickel just ain’t worth a dime, anymore”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *