July 29 v Athletics

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.47 -0.046
Cabrera – LF 0.30 -0.028
Bautista – RF 0.16 -0.006
Encarnacion – 1b 0.34 -0.002
Lind – DH 0.23 0.013
Rasmus – CF 0.29 -0.002
Izturis – 2B 0.55 -0.039 Pitcher pLI WPA
DeRosa – PH 0.01 0.000 Rogers – SP 0.50 -0.378
Arencibia – C 0.32 -0.015 McGowan – RP 0.10 0.010
Lawrie – 3B 0.23 -0.006 Cecil – RP 0.09 -0.001
Total 0.31 -0.132 Total 0.35 -0.368

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOOT: Adam Lind, 1.3%
Griffin: Esmil Rogers, -37.8%
Impact At-Bat: Lind Solo HR, Top 5, 3.0%
Impact Pitch: Yoenis Cespedes 2-run Triple, Bot 1, -14.5%
Highest Leverage AB: Jose Reyes Strikeout, Top 1, 0.87
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Jed Lowrie RBI Single, Bot 1, 1.72
Lineup Contribution: -13.2%
Pitching Contribution: -36.8%
Average Leverage Index: 0.33
Chart explanation

- Esmil Rogers’ line: 4.1ip, 9h, 8r, 6er, 3bb, 3k, 97 pitches, 6 swinging strikes, 17 game score, 3.73FIP.

- A.J. Griffin’s line: 7.0ip, 4h, 5k, 2bb, 3hr, 99 pitches, 8 swinging strikes, 56 game score, 8.04FIP.

- Esmil Rogers struggled mightily. The Clevelands Oakland A’s opened the game with a lead-off Coco Crisp walk, Edwin Encarnacion error, a Jed Lowrie single and a Yoenis Cespedes 2-run triple, giving them a 3-0 lead before making an out. They added in the inning another on a sac fly and in the 3rd Seth Smith (breaking an 0-for-30 streak) doubled home Brandon Moss. It was more of the same in the 5th, with Josh Reddick driving in two on a double and Stephen Vogt bringing him in two batters later, giving the A’s an 8-1 lead and signaling the end of Esmil’s day. If you stayed up to watch this game live on the East Coast and made it past the 5th inning you’ve got an excellent tolerance.

- Dustin McGowan came on to close out the 5th, and went on to face 9 hitters and recording 7 outs. He allowed a hit and a walk to little fanfare. Brett Cecil mopped things up, allowing a solo home run to Cespedes, his first at home in 25 games.

- Since being named an All-Star, Brett Cecil has posted the following: 6.1IP 11H 8ER 8BB 7K 2HR.

- More fun! This was the league-worst 50th time a Jays starter gave up 4 or more runs. Milwaukee starters have done it 45 times, good for 2nd.

- The Blue Jays highest leverage at-bat was Jose Reyes leading off the Top of the 1st, giving you an idea of how quickly shit got out of hand.

- Adam Lind (13) hit an opposite field solo home run to break A.J. Griffin’s no hitter, his 2nd home run and 7th RBI of July.

- After immediately giving up 3 runs after the Lind homer, the Jays responded in the top of the 6th with Brett Lawrie (8) hitting a solo shot, followed by Edwin Encarnacion (29) hitting a 2-run shot later in the inning to bring the Jays within 4.

- Speaking of Lawrie, he’s currently on what would be a 26-home run pace if he played a full season. He’s still not getting any other kind of extra base hit or on base much but it is undeniable that he is having much better at-bats now than he was even two weeks ago. It’s a positive sign from a guy that has had a couple set-backs this season and even said himself that he was a step behind by not having a real spring training.

- Brett Lawrie also did this:

- Melky Cabrera’s legs, man… He runs like my 60-year old Dad when he’s going down a really steep hill. The Cespedes 1st inning triple was hit into the left field corner and by the time Melky got to it even a Molina brother could have stretched it into a triple.

- 0-fers for Reyes, Cabrera, and Izturis.

- 13,000 people were in attendance to watch the AL West leading team that moved into a tie for the best record in the American League.

- The (48-57) Jays have a shot at redemption tonight at 10:05pm EST.

- The projected matchup is Mark Buehrle (4.19FIP, 1.5fWAR) vs Dan Straily (2.65FIP, 1.5fWAR)

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Comments (78)

  1. GO JAYS!

  2. Lawrie shows exceptional grace and athleticism in that gif. Lind shows us an athlete’s exception from grace.
    So is there a shitter basically in the dugout in Oakland? Is this part of the flooding issue they had recently?

  3. Wow this season got out of hand fast. It feels like literally just yesterday we were two games under .500 right Zubes?

  4. As good as the Dodgers looked, the A’s looked better. That stat that they threw out about them being FIFTY games over .500 since Jul 1, 2012 is amazing. Is there any doubt they’ll be in the World Series?

    I agree with Zaun re Rogers: teams have had a chance to see his stuff and prepare for it. Also, he may be suffering from’dead arm’. He was up to 84 IPs before he started last night and thats his highest IP ever.

    • Oh there’s little doubt they’ll be in the playoffs. But they have to win two series to get to the WS.

      They’ve had teams like this before in the moneyball era and didn’t win the AL pennant

      Playoffs = crapshoot

      • @BJW

        I will grant you this:

        Thats why they have playoffs.

        But 50 games over .500 ! I should say 51 now !!. The next highest team since that time last year is 26 over.
        Usually (not always but usually) a team with a record like that will go to the world series.

    • A’s vs Rays for the AL championship. Crickets as one of them wins.

    • Sounds like Rogers is this year’s Villenueva?

      • I got ran out of town last week for telling people that Esmil would be running against his IP limit in early August. He wasn’t stretched out in the off-season as a starter and I think 100 IP is his limit based on the 30% rule.

        I think that Esmil has one more start and that JA Happ will be in to replace him for the 1st game in the homestand. The Jays need long relief.

  5. Focusing on the positives here… Lawrie’s bat is heating up. If he can keep that going through the 2nd half, I can have a lot confidence for him going into next season and write off the struggles from the past calendar year to be injury related.

    • I think it’s a bit early to tell, but it looks, at this point anyway that Mottola’s attempts to get some of that movement out of his swing are working. Also the power that we all saw earlier seems to be coming back.

    • Injury prone players tend to keep getting injured. Lawrie spent lots of time injured in the minors too so it’s not like it just started when he got to the Jays.

      • I just looked up his injury history from the minors.

        He had 2 instances of missed time due to injury in 2009, one for a fractured nose and one for surgery on his fractured nose.

        He then had a stint on the DL in 2011 when a pitch hit and broke his hand. That is all his injury history from the minors.

        I call BS on your comment.

        • 90% of his posts are full of shit so no surprise there.

        • So your point is that he missed time with injuries in the minors?

          • He missed time with freak injuries, not the pulled hamstrings and other injuries that tend to recur

            • In 2009 and 2010 Lawrie was in the minors where seasons are about 30 games shy of a MLB season. He played 118 and 135 games respectively.

              In 2011 he logged 116 games, played 127 in 2012 and has played in 62 this year.
              Jays have 57 remaining so he could play in a maximum of 119.

              Is he injury prone?
              Don’t know.

              Some guys have trouble staying on the field,
              but in Lawrie’s case, JT is right: the injuries appear unrelated.

              It may be nothing more than a run of bad luck
              or it may be that he needs to dial it back a bit so he can stay on the field.
              We’ll have a better idea in a couple of years.

              If he’s to be a guy the organization counts on, it would help his case
              if he were to be able to stay on the field the rest of the way
              and get his bat going on a consistent basis.

              • The thing about freak injuries is that they seem to happen a lot to the same players Nothing usually changes unless there is something tangible like a position switch like in the case of E5.

                Of course, the guy could just stop getting injured, although I would argue that the dive into the camera bay injury was anything but freak.

                If I were betting………………………..I’d take the over on the injuries for Lawrie. But keep being surprised all you like.

                • I’m not suggesting he hasn’t had injury issues early on, but to suggest that he’s a broken product at this stage of his career is awfully pessimistic. Obviously I can’t see into the future but I think his injury issues are a part of his maturation process.

                  He’s learning to play hard without making bad decisions (like jumping into a camera bay), decisions that I believe are much more common amongst young players.

                  • Sorry that’s meant to be above with Ezchoice

                  • Didn’t call him a broken product. Where did you read that? I said that he is likely to get injured again.

                    Scott Rolen had what I consider a HOF career being injured all the time. Edmonds is more borderline but I would still put him in and he was injured all the time.

                    • Sorry, I was trying to rephrase what you’d said. Let me try again. He’s not broken, he’s just likely to break down in the future.

  6. typical Lind. Always going against the grain. This time with a +’ve WPA

  7. That game was a microcosm of this entire season. Down the shitter from the get-go, with about 8 good minutes near the middle before tanking for good.

  8. “The (48-57) Jays have a shot at redemption tonight at 10:05pm EST.”

    Well really they are pretty far from redemption…

    Good stat on the starting pitching. That’s it right there. 50 starts with 4 or more runs and second place is 5 behind?? Crazy. And we thought we had one of the best rotations in baseball! Everything else we are average or above average.

    Who are the top free agent starting pitchers this year? We need Johnson back (got to try and salvage something out of trading for him) and we need to add another top pitcher. That plus getting back Happ and Morrow and you’d hope we can put up some kind of proper rotation.

  9. “- 13,000 people were in attendance to watch the AL West leading team that moved into a tie for the best record in the American League.”

    That is just sad. Tampa and Oakland are two of the best stories going and still can’t draw flies.

  10. For fuck sake Gibby give Melky a day or two off for Davis. I turned the game off when the guy was virtually walking into the corner on the Cespedes triple.

    • At this point, it may make sense to put him back on the DL and bring Pillar up to see how he fares in LF when the rosters expand.

  11. This season is done. I’m in favour of seeing how this plays out next year but I’m really bored. bLet’s play a fictional game called blow up the Jays.

    Here’s how it goes. You trade away just about every player on the team and put together a “explosion” score where each top 100 prospect gets you points ( # 1 prospect = 100 points, #100 = 1 point). So a player with a score of 75 would net you something like a #50 overall and #75 overall

    My total team score below is 415. Roll this score into top prospects that would get you # 1,2,3,4 + 80 of top prospects. They wouldn’t win shit but what would you rather do, shit the bed today or get to dream about the future!

    Reyes = 50
    Cabrera = 0
    Bautista = 75
    Encarnacion = 100
    Lind = 0
    Rasmus = 50
    Izturis = 0
    Davis=0
    Arencibia=0
    Lawrie=50

    Dickey – 20
    Morrow – 40
    Buerle – 30
    Johnson- 0
    Happ – 0

    • Reyes = 70
      Cabrera = 10
      Bautista = 80
      Encarnacion = 115
      Lind = 20
      Rasmus = 40
      Izturis = 0
      Davis=0
      Arencibia=-27
      Lawrie=65

      Dickey – 20
      Morrow – 25
      Buerle – -20/20 (depends how much salary we eat)
      Johnson- 0
      Happ – 5

  12. “- The Blue Jays highest leverage at-bat was Jose Reyes leading off the Top of the 1st, giving you an idea of how quickly shit got out of hand.”

    Laugh or cry. Those are our options now. sad…..

  13. “The (48-57) Jays have a shot at redemption tonight at 10:05pm EST.”
    It is Red Dead Redemption.
    Watching them makes us see Red.
    And they are certainly Dead.

  14. Trade speculation?

    • Dodgers looking at signing Wilson. Would take another team off the block looking for relief help.

      Been a quiet morning otherwise for trade rumours

    • Surprised that’s not rumors about our bullpen all over MLBTR.

      The most Jays shit we’ve heard on there has to do with Bautista and EE…. Which really isn’t happening.

      Seems like a real sellers market for relievers so I’m sure the Jays are getting calls. And even though AA says they likely won’t do anything…. That’s got to be bullshit if people are calling about their stacked pen

      • yea thats what I’m thinking too

        relievers never more valuable than at the deadline but its possible AA isnt getting the package type deal he’s looking for

        most of these relievers have been dealt for lower tier prospects and PTBNL and AA might be looking for someone with way more upside and someone closer to being MLB ready

        still a day and a half yet but this trade deadline has been a complete buzzkill all around

      • I don’t think MLBTR had any idea that the Colby Rasmus package was imminent. Indeed, there was mention in July 2011 that the White Sox might be interested.

        AA doesn’t play his cards to the media. My bet is given the overage of relievers and the demand, he’s doing everything he can to make a Rasmusesque trade.

  15. Santos hasn’t looked too great in AAA. Could be a partial reason why there hasn’t been much in the way of moving relievers.

    Thad Weber and Wagner looking good still.

    • Irrelevant.

      If you can deal a reliever for a decent prospect you can chuck whatever joe shitbag you want in there for the next couple months. Especially is its Oliver who’s a FA next year.

  16. 13k people? maybe all the jays need to win is no body showing up to games and no expectation to win.

  17. I feel enough is not being said about how Melky is unable to use his legs, we basically have a player that can only jog. That is insane.

    • Completely Agree. Sit him till you can DH him only. I think there would have been two less runs yesterday if Rajai was playing.

  18. AA and Paul, come in here, I want to talk to you. Look, I don’t know sweet fuck all about baseball but I was golfing the other day with a couple of guys that do. I asked them, what the fuck is up with my baseball team? They didn’t want to say anything at first but I told them I wanted the fucking truth. They said okay, here’s the problem as we see it:

    1. You can’t change that much in one offseason and expect harmony in the clubhouse or success on the field. It rarely happens. But, many of the moves were solid moves, just too many at once.

    2. Dickey doesn’t fit at Rogers Centre. He came from a different situation, much bigger ballpark.

    3. Who’s playing second? Strong up the middle of the diamond is the name of the game.

    4. Starting pitching looked good but injuries and poor performance let you down. That needs to be fixed.

    5. Who’s catching? You need a solid, defense first catcher to guide the pitching staff. Forget the offence of JP, it’s nice but his role is defense first.

    6. Not relevant at this very moment but you really need to put fucking grass in here pronto!!

    How do you propose AA, Paul, assuming they agree with the boss, go about fixing this situation(s)?

    • Got to get a catcher and 2nd baseman, never let Melky play left Field again. I think the pitching would get better almost immediately if you did that. Then you can look to do something with the pitchers later if need be.

      Melky should be on the bench until his legs are better. Or forever. I cannot believe they have a cripple playing left field. How many extra bases have they given up because he cant run to the ball but they keep putting him out there every night.

      Any other team would have parked him on the bench. I know he is getting paid a lot but do you want to win or not. He isn’t really helping with the bat.

      Anyone disagree?

    • How do you explain Dickey’s sub 3.00 ERA on the road last year? What about the fact that he was better in domes than anywhere else? The dome was suppose to help RA.

      He also had an inter-league ERA of 1.88 in 24 innings. Including 18 innings and 25 ks against the Rays and O’s in 2 games.

      The only knock on Dickey was his age but some erroneously belief that knuckleballers don’t age. Not sure this is due to age but it is no doubt a concern going forward.

      • they say “the devil is in the details” … they have NOT kept dome shut for RA AND the open dome at RC has swirling winds that do unpredictable things … he needs a consistent situation he can adapt to and anticipate and here he is at home having the except opposite of that. Does not know if dome open or shut, mostly open and if so it is the worst place in baseball for a kber to pitch because of the unpredictable wind currents depending on a thousand uncontrollable factors and it is a park made for hitters .. somebody said it doesn’t work for him. Damn straight it don’t and it’s obvious.

        Why, you ask, is he then less successful elsewhere?

        Too many changes even for a quite adaptable quy.

        extrapolate this set of analysis to a lot of other things about the team and you begin to understand why this year is so shitty … and why fantasy baseball spoils the real game, because it does not have to deal with ANY of these variables.

        • I don’t think Rogers can decide to keep the dome shut on a sunny day just to give their SP an advantage.

          Two failures for SP this year have been Dickey at home (20 home runs now vs 6 on the road) and Josh Johnson from the stretch.

          The question is whether a team with a pitching friendly ball park would be willing to take on RA’s contract. I think an NL west team would.

    • JPA is also the worst hitting starting catcher in the game probably.

    • Have Rogers buy the Argos and relegate them to BMO field. Then put in natural grass at the dome.

  19. Also an August trade dealine btw

    • Not a one of the Jays relievers passes through waivers though.

      Too many teams would love a cheap bullpen upgrade for the playoffs.

      • Then a trade then

        • I see AA trying to do the same thing he did in late July three years ago to pull in a starting pitcher or 2B. If you recall, AA got rid of Frasor, Dotel, and Rzepczynski and transferred Edwin Jackson to bring in Colby.

          There’s excessive talent in the bullpen. Santos will be called up. Rogers will need to return to the bullpen. Brad Lincoln and Wagner are effective MLB relievers in Buffalo. AA can trade two relivers and resolve his roster logjam at the same time.

          I see something big on the horizon.

      • If they get claimed a trade would have to be worked out.

  20. Looks like Bud Norris and Michael Young will be traded today – Norris’ start scratched and Phillies called up an IF’er

    My guess is after losing the division lead to Tampa, Boston might be trigger happy on pulling off a trade

    • Looks like the W-Sox won’t be leaving it to the Peave anymore as he’s been scratched from his start too.

  21. Phils want Bogaerts, Workman and MLB OF’er for Lee and his whole contract or most of it at least.

    What would that be in Jays terms? Bog is Red Sox top prospect, so Sanchez for Jays. Not sure where Workman ranks but he’s 24 and been up to the bigs already, so maybe a Sean Nolin? MLB OF’er could be Boni but more likely someone with more value, so a Rajai.

    Rajai, Sanchez, Nolin for Lee and his 70 mil contract . . . . yea, not sure I could stomach that at the moment

    • Jays simply don’t have a Bogaerts in their system and the Red Sox shouldn’t deal him for Cliff Lee.

      If that is the offer it’s better than Raj, Nolin and Sanchez.

    • You couldn’t stomach that? It’s a steal.

      • A steal for who? The Red Sox?

        I don’t know I think Bogaerts is the second best prospect in all of baseball. (my opinion)

        Cliff Lee has been dealt before (even by the Phillies) and the return was never even close to that high. Perhaps as he ages and his contract gets bigger Cliff has more value but I don’t think that much.

        I do realize that the market dictates value but I doubt the Red Sox are that desperate. Their chances of winning are pretty good with or without Lee.

  22. Young only wants to be dealt to the Rangers.

    Rios to the Pirates if ChiSox can eat enough salary it looks like.

  23. No jays rumours at all…..

  24. Dammit Jays, I trusted you, AAAAAAAGGHH!!!

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