santosRC0413

Per an official release from the Jays, Sergio Santos has been activated from the 60-day DL and added to the big league roster, with Brandon Morrow moving to the 60-day in order to clear a spot on the 40 man roster, and [sad trombone] Dustin McGowan hitting the Disabled List with an oblique strain.

McGowan looked just fine during Monday’s first game of the Oakland series, when he pitched two-and-a-third innings, allowing one hit and walking one, so… not sure what’s happened in the interim, and one might even get suspicious about the roster maneuverings if, y’know, it weren’t a McGowan injury, which is obviously pretty believable.

Then again, maybe that’s the point.

Regardless, it’s yet another illustration of the fragility of this pitcher, who the Jays simply can’t rely on to be a starter next season, no matter how much he wants to, and what a great story it would be. But on the up side, at least it’s an oblique and not anything to do with his elbow or shoulder.

Meanwhile, the Jays’ hand seems to have been forced by Santos’ rehab stint expiring, because it’s hard to believe he’s completely ready, based on the results he’s shown in the minors.

For example: Since moving up to Buffalo he’s struck out just five batters in six innings, three of which came in his first outing with the club, and he’s alternated between good performances and bad, with the better ones coming when he’s been able to get at least two days rest between appearances.

He struck out three, giving up one hit in his one inning of work during his Buffalo debut July 18th. Two days later he got lit up for four runs (two earned), on three hits and a walk, with no K’s. Three days after that it was a clean inning (one strikeout), but pitching again the next day– July 24th– he wasn’t as good, giving up a run on two hits (one strikeout).

His final two appearances there followed the same patter– a clean inning, with no K’s, on July 27th, then in his final apperance on the 29th it was two runs (both earned) on two hits and a walk.

Not that any of this matters very much, of course– it’s not like it’s worrying to think of him fucking up in key moments in a season that’s already too far gone– but man, it sure would be nice to see this guy put it together, because when he’s healthy and on, he’s fucking great. Scoff all you want, pissfaces, then go watch some highlights of his final year in Chicago.

Comments (146)

  1. I’m not usually a conspiracy theorist…but has anyone ever seen Santos and McGowan in the same place at the same time? Maybe they’re the same guy? #pokaroo

  2. colby rasmus is about to get fucking expensive, and worth it

    • Depends if he keeps up a .360 BABIP. I have my doubts.

      • when everything you hit is a fucking lazer your babip will be higher

        • i had this exact same argument with a buddy today. people love to attribute BABIP to luck. that’s not the way baseball works. when you’re hitting everything on the goddamn screws, you’re gonna get more hits.

          • do you remember in the world series between the tigers and cardinals like 8 years ago?
            pujols was up and leyland signals to the infield for the corners to play in and I believe it was inge playing third and he just looks at leyland like he’s retarded and just shakes his head no and stays where he is

          • Classic example of people running wild with a ittle bit of statistical understanding. Pitchers BABIP and hitters BABIP don’t normalize the same way. Hitters do more to control their BABIP than pitchers do to control their BABIP against (you only need to think about this for a second to see why it makes sense but most people including a lot of lazy fantasy writers don’t take the reflection that far).

            • I understand the stat completely.

            • For example a guy like Rasmus has like 2% of his hits being infield singles as where a guy like Trout will have 14 or 15%

              They have similar BABIP right now (Trout is better). Guess who is more likely to stay there?

              • IFH% is not how many of his hits are infield hits.
                It is what percentage of his groundballs which are infield hits.

          • Right but to ignore his career mark of around .290 coming into this year is a little short sighted.

            It’s up to about .297 now and that is probably a good baseline.

            Of course hitters can control their BABIP but this is not Cabrera we are talking about and we are not talking about a speedster who will up it with infield singles.

            We are talking about a guy who strikes out all the time and in prone to slumps.

            • Unless you think that his last two season were serious outliers from his true talent given physical and mental injuries.

              • It’s his strike outs and lack of speed to 1b.

                Anyone who thinks he will out BABIP Cabrera’s career mark…………….I got bridges for a fantastic price just ask…….

                • lack of speed to first?
                  have you watched him run?

                  • he’s an elegant gazelle on the basepaths

                  • his IF hit % as previously stated is 2%. It doesn’t matter what you think you see.

                    • In fairness his career mark is 4.4% but that is a rather low number and not about to fuel a BABIP.

                    • I could be wrong, but isn’t a low IF hit % a sign of a more sustainable BABIP? Since fewer hits are of the flukey variety and more are due to solid contact?

                    • JT, you would be completely wrong about that.

                    • The thing is that a guy who strikes at a pace for close to 200 over a season isn’t likely to keep making such great contact over a long period of time.

                      The other thing is that IF hits increase the number of GBs turned into hits.

                      Obviously line drives are the best way to get hits, then GBs and then fly balls. Rasmus hits a lot a line drives but he also hits a lot of fly balls. Everything always looks like it will continue while it’s happening but to ignore the fact that Rasmus has been having a statistically charmed season is wearing homer goggles.

                      Bunt singles can also increase a BABIP.

                      The difference between a productive players and a not so productive player is such a razor thin line that all these things matter. Very few guys can stay near the top of the league in BABIP year after year. Rasmus does not have the pedigree to be one of them.

                    • Thanks for that, I wasn’t trying to argue that Rasmus is going to maintain his pace, obviously he’s playing significantly above his career norms. I was looking for a general explanation about the connection between IF hits and BABIP.

                • What do k’s have to do with his babip?

                  • Quite a bit when you’re looking for consistent contact. Think about it.

                    • You haven’t researched this enough, if at all. I think you’re basing this on what you assume would be true – high K% = expecting poor contact. This has no basis in reality.

                      Rasmus is at 29.7 K% (and dropping) with a .366 BABIP
                      Napoli: 33.8%, .376
                      Cargo: 27.1%, .370
                      Chris Davis: 29.7%, .359
                      Byrd: 27.9%, .353

                      I’m not saying this is who Rasmus will be next year – he could maintain the high K rate while the BABIP comes down, or he could improve the K rate and the BABIP could stay the same or come down. I’m just calling bullshit on the notion that guys with high strike out rates would be expected to make poor contact when they make contact.

                  • See it’s not a perfect science but there is some science involved.

                    A guy like Pujols in his prime can be expected to have a high BABIP year after year because he is doing exactly want he wants at the plate. He’s patient, getting his pitch and smoking it.

                    Rasmus is swinging from the heels and missing lots of pitches and sometimes hitting one on the screws.

                    Rasmus is not the type of hitter to control his BABIP to this degree.

                    • But what do your eyes tell you?

                      I see someone that is continuing to refine his approach at the plate and make better contact. Pitch selection is getting better. The fact that he strikes out a bunch doesn’t really matter – he’s making solid contact when he puts it in play right now.

                      Assuming that someone will regress to career norms when they’re 26 years old is risky business. 2010 with the Cardinals he put up .354 BABIP and sustained it over 530 PAs. So what’s the outlier?? That’s a great 2010, a shitty 2011 and 2012, and a great 2013.

                    • All of the numbers tell me that he is a .290 to .310 BABIP guy like most of the league and not the only guy to go above or below in any given season.

                      .360 is too good for guys with near perfected approaches at the plate and I don’t think Tony Rasmus could argue that Colby has perfected his approach.

                      Either that or it’s fueled by infield hits and bunt singles but that is not an option for Rasmus.

                      Sorry to be objective but I would say the same thing if he played for the Yankees. The name on the front of the jersey does not have an effect on my analysis.

                    • I think that analysis is an example of the issues associated with analyzing a batters BABIP. No matter what numbers a player is putting up, the “objective” argument seems to be that he will regress back down to, or up to the .300 number. Which is why you can never put too much weight into a single statistic.

                    • EZchoice is being the voice of reason in this conversation hands down. The other side of this conversation is far too reminiscent of Leaf fans, thinking the Leafs can keep shooting at an 11%+ rate because “they take good shots”.

                      *runs away before hockey reference gets me tarred and feathered*

                    • I don’t think the leafs comparison is entirely fair. In that case you’re looking at a team-wide number that is artificially high and likely to return to league-wide norms.

                      For Rasmus, we’re looking at the career numbers of a chronic underachiever and suggesting it might be possible that recent changes in approach may prevent him from regressing all the way back to his underachieving career numbers.

                    • wow. Who said anything about regressing to his numbers from the past two seasons. The context of this conversation was his worthiness of a blockbuster contract.

                      The all or nothing approach doesn’t have to be used here. It’s fair to say that Rasmus might not be this good and it’s also fair to say he wasn’t as bad as last year. Not that much has really changed. He is still hitting lots of line drives and flyballs.

                      Arguing against him returning to his 2012 (or all the way back to his underachieving numbers) numbers is a true strawman argument as nobody has suggested such a regression.

                    • Ezchoice, Nobody said anything about regressing to the numbers from the last two years. I mentioned regression to CAREER NUMBERS (including his last two and previous good years). And I agree, this is a conversation about his worthiness of a large contract, which includes a discussion about who the real Colby is.

                      All I was suggesting is that he’s probably much better than he has been with Toronto, definitely not as good as he currently is playing, and in my opinion, likely about as good as his first few years in St. Louis.

                      I’m not trying to shit on your numbers or assessments, they’re perfectly valid, just offering my opinion as well.

                    • My apologies, I misread what you wrote…………………..I think I still have a job that I’m doing in between this thread ;)

      • Not only has he been hitting the ball hard, but their seems to be a few things happening right now that bode well for the future. First off, he seems to be very comfortable in Toronto and with his surroundings, which isn’t always a big deal, but for guys like Rasmus, and even Bautista, it makes a huge difference. His new approach, limiting his time in the cage, and possible not over thinking everything by overworking himself, seems to have given him less to think about and generally looks comfortable and confident at the plate. The biggest thing that is going for him right now, and hopefully the near future, in a Blue Jay uniform I hope, is he is entering his prime years. I only hope AA does what he has done with JB and EE, and lock him up before he has a chance to hit the open market.

  3. At least it’s not an arm injury for McGowan. That’s too bad though, I was really impressed with how he’s been pitching so far.

  4. Is Santos velo still down?

  5. 5 batters in 6 innings doesn’t seem terrible, and it’s a pretty small sample size. Hopefully things are fine. (On the bright side, Stroman struck out 13 in 6 1/3 last night)

  6. They’re probably just monitoring McGowan’s innings. All in all, it’s very o’bleak.

    • I was thinking the same thing. Maybe they are just shutting him down for a while in fear of overworking the arm/shoulder. Not like this season has any meaning left anyway…

  7. you know what i was just thinking, you know how stupid McGowan’s extension seemed when he signed it? I bet you after next season, if you compare his numbers to say, papelbon, they wont be that much different, minus the 90% difference in pay

  8. Can he play second base

  9. John Lott kind of hinted at this in an exchange on Twitter last night, and I don’t want this to sound as bad is it might… but… has anyone else started to think that AA might lie a fair amount of the time?

    For example, and I think this is what Lott was referring too, AA said yesterday that every report in the media was “completely false”. So does that mean that, while he admitted to looking for ‘middle infield’ help, he didn’t inquire on Gordon Beckham and Howie Kendrick? Whether talks got anywhere or not – no one ever said the Jays were in serious discussions for these guys, and if AA actually didn’t inquire on them… then is he doing his job very well?

    Of course, most GMs probably lie to the media, and there’s another side of the argument that is kind of fair: since they didn’t get anything done, there’s no need for, say, Maicer Izturis, to think the Jays were actively going after a replacement for him. And obviously, if they did try to shop Bonifacio or Cabrera as reported, you don’t want those guys thinking they were shopped either.

    It’s really not a big deal, I’m just starting to wonder if “AA never lies!” is more of a myth, like the “you can never see AA deals coming!” myth.

    • Except he didn’t say that “every” report in the media was false, just the majority. So that leaves it open to some reports being on the mark.

      I can’t prove it one way or the other, but I get the sense that AA doesn’t lie in his statements. he either tells the truth or withholds information.

  10. Lazy question – can a rehab stint not be extended? From what you describe, it sounds like he needs more conditioning.

    • Not without him going back on the DL, I don’t think. The 30-day limit is to ensure teams don’t just stash guys in the minors (and off the 40-man) indefinitely under the guise of “rehab assignment.”

      He’ll pitch a couple of shitty outings and then go back on the DL. They can keep the assembly line moving and shift McGowan from the 15-day to the 60-day to accommodate. Then when the next guy needs to be brought up they shift Santos to the 60, and on and on.

      • He’ll pitch a couple of shitty outings and then go back on the DL. They can keep the assembly line moving – Yuck and Yeesh!

        Anyway, that’s kind of too bad because it does sound, from Stoeten’s write up, like the guy could use more conditioning. Kind of counter-productive, if not ridiculous, in this case to force the team into activating Santos as he’s more likely to get re-injured than if he were closer to 100%.

    • I think they’d need an injury to extend it beyond 30 days. I wonder if he has options.

  11. Ok, so wait a sec… I’m not totally sure my own thinking on this.
    But if we scoff at people who suggest Morrow is too fragile to be a starter and should be pushed to the pen, why do we also insist that McGowan is definitely too soft and shouldn’t be allowed to try to make it as a starter again?

    I mean, I get that McGowan’s injury history is far far worse than Morrows (or anyone else’s for that matter), but shouldn’t the theory be the same? i.e. that Starters are WAY more valuable than relievers and if there’s a change McGowan can go back to being an above average starter (or even an average one) rather than an above average reliever, shouldn’t he get that chance?

    • I think the idea is that you can’t count on McGowan. Hell, maybe being a starter would actually be better for his health, but we can’t know that, and even if we did, it would be foolish to count on him.

      • Can we count on Morrow?

        • I think Morrow has thrown his last pitch as a Blue Jay. The prognosis on whatever they’ve diagnosed him with most recently is not very good. Most likely rest doesn’t work and he ends up having some kind of surgery in the offseason which forces him to miss most/all of 2014.

          At that point his contract is up. The Jays have a $10 million option for 2015 but it’s hard to imagine them exercising it unless he pitches a full season with better results than he had in his limited innings this year, which doesn’t seem likely at all.

          Some team, likely not the Jays, will give him a 1-year contract for 1-2 million for 2015 and he’ll have a chance to fight his way back, but even best case it really becomes like a McGowan situation at that point, where he might pitch a few innings here and there but is done as a starter or even as a really useful bullpen piece.

          I don’t think Morrow factors into the Jays’ plans at all anymore. Probably one of the reasons they held on to Buehrle even though it would have been better to dump him.

          • “The prognosis on whatever they’ve diagnosed him with most recently is not very good. Most likely rest doesn’t work and he ends up having some kind of surgery in the offseason which forces him to miss most/all of 2014. ”

            Where do you get this from?

            • If you look up “entrapped radial nerve” and exclude the Morrow articles, you get two other cases: Vicente Padilla and Eric Gagne. Both ended up having surgery to cut away muscle that was impinging on a nerve. How are they doing today?

          • +1 with sadness. I like morrow but I am worried about all his injuries.

            I guess we can hope for a Romero comeback in mid August?

    • Baseball has always been a game of numbers, inches, etc. Metrics are great, help give baseball people evidence about how a player is doing in a variety of ways. Good organizations use metrics. But they also value their instincts and I hope that never changes. With Dustin, he’s got awesome stuff but a body that is broken, a spirit that just woudn’t give up. With Morrow, he’s a pen guy based on numerous attempts to change that reality by two organizations. When I watch Dustin pitch, he pitches, has more of an arsenal and feel for pitching than Morrow by a country mile in my opinion. He just cannot stay healthy. Morrow will be a lights out BP guy. The fact that starters are way more valuable than BP guys is true ACCEPT when the fucking pitcher cannot stay healthy due to a starters workload. AA and company will fix this during the offseason. After Rogers ponied up the cash and maybe more this offseason, AA is not going into spring training with that rotation and risk his job. He’s also going to have a veteran catcher and a bonifided, major league second baseman too, plus a LFer. Perhaps that’s Melky IF his legs are showing improvement with offseason rest. If not, he’ll fix that too. Perhaps some of the call up help out somewhere in there but likely more for depth than anything next year. He’ll see what he really has an act accordingly in the offseason. People forget that Rogers have committed to this team being competitive long term. This first, initial splash fell short, I bet it’s a different story next year.

  12. I may be a lemming, but I’m just going to be happy that Santos is back in the bigs and hope that he can return to past form in the next 8 weeks. As far as I know, he’ll be on the team next year.

    As for McGowan, I’m just going to be happy that it’s not the arm or some other key limb that is hurt, and be happy that he did return this years with some decent results to build on.

    The theory of roster manipulation is fine by me to give McGowan a little rest so that he can return when rosters expand.

    That said, I may get a decent sized boner if McGowan is starting games in the minors during his “rehab”.

  13. Fuck it.

    I’m calling fake DL stint so that he can stretch out in minors to start when September comes.

    • There is no one available to go down and clear waivers, because AA didn’t execute a trade for Relievers, so the only thing he can do is bring is fake a DL to McGowan.

      In 15 days however, what is going to happen?

    • Pretty sure that putting players on the DL for made up injuries would be a big no-no. The players union would certainly not be impressed. It must be a breach of something in the CBA.

      • “Dustin, does it hurt when I punch you in the side like this?”

        “Dude quit it, that hurts.”

        “Oh uh, we better get you on the DL while that pain subsides.”

        “OK, but just stop hitting me.”

      • given what this organization has done for dustin mcgowan, do you really see him complaining?

        Most organizations would have let him go a long long time ago, he wouldn;t have been collecting cheques and having his recovery paid for.

        Not to mention the fact that he got an extension in the midst of all this.

  14. How can everyone be so sure oblique injuries aren’t at least in part due to an arm or elbow issue forcing a pitcher to compensate , even if ever so slightly , by exerting more torque with the abdominal muscles ?

    Not saying this is true or false but I think it bears consideration before we just assume the two cannot be related

    The body generally doesn’t work or breakdown in such isolated manners

  15. “when he’s healthy and on, he’s fucking great. Scoff all you want, pissfaces, then go watch some highlights of his final year in Chicago.”

    It’s true, his final year in Chicago was awesome…all 63 innings of it. His year before that, not so much, and his two years as a Jay have been awful. So basically he’s been really good for 50% of his MLB career and average or injured for the other half. He’s now 30 years old, and really still learning the position after being converted from shortstop. Personally, I think it’s time to start holding out too much hope for this guy. But whatever, he basically cost us nothing prospect-wise.

    • sorry *stop holding*

    • I think the analysis on this blog generally gives a fair shake to most players. However every now and then certain players for whatever reason seem to be granted undying love or unrelenting ire. If the player is liked, his bad results are the anomally and should be glossed over, all that matters were the good times. If the player is disliked, his good results are the anomally and should be discarded to focus on the bad.

  16. If we extend Rasmus do we then try to trade Gose for a bag of balls or pray he ends up being a defensive replacement/ pinch runner/org guy? I don’t think he has any real trade value anymore other than maybe a swap of one failed prospect for another.

    • Personally I wouldn’t look to deal him at a low point. I’d give him another year in the minors to try and figure it out.

    • Why give up on Gose? He costs nothing, his current worth is at an all time low, and he’s young enough to easily believe that there are better days ahead for him.

    • He should be able to fill the Rajai Davis role next year. Actually, he’s much better suited for it than Davis since he plays credible defense at all three outfield spots and is much cheaper — although the caught stealings are a concern.

  17. Maybe Santos should be our fifth starter

  18. Scoff all you want, pissfaces, then go watch some highlights of Josh Towers 2005 season.

  19. Scoff all you want, pissfaces, then go watch some highlights of Gustavo Chacin’s 2005 season.

  20. Obviously Rasmus isn’t going to maintain a .366 BAVG on balls in play. Sheesh. No one can maintain that. Geez, (I guess Ty Cobb could, but he’s been dead for 50 years.) But even Ichiro Suzuki’s only topped .366 4 times in 13 seasons, and his career BABiP..is way, way better than Colby’s.

    But even if – make that when – Rasmus reverts to something much more like his career norms he’s still a useful player. He gives you good defense at an important position, and he’ll’ chip in with some offense from the bottom half of the order.

  21. “I think Morrow has thrown his last pitch as a Blue Jay.”

    Wow. That’s a statement. And yet, it seems plausible. I think it deserves its own DJF treatment.

  22. He k’s a lot which is why is babip is high.

    Please. Arencibia Ks just as often, and his BABiP is .264 this year and .262 for his career. Obviously Rasmus should be better than that – he’s LH and he runs better. But 35 points better, not 100.

    • JPA is hitting .218. I guess you don’t understand how math works do you?

      colby in april hit .238 BA and .381 BABIP getting lucky right?

      in may hit .263 BA and .317 BABIP

      so if he was so lucky how did his BA go up and his BABIP go down?

  23. how did his BA go up and his BABIP go down?

    Because he didn’t strike out every other at bat.

    I’m sorry this is so hard for you.

  24. Off topic. Drew wrote this: “Both teams [Jays and Angels] struggle situationally, boasting dreadful records in one-run games.”

    I don’t dispute the starting pitching has been the biggest problem with the Jays this year; all I ask is that we acknowledge that that’s not the whole story.

    • It’s all just dumb luck. Even though it happens every year, it’s just your perception. It’s called confirmation bias.

      • Could be. But still I’m convinced the awful record in one-run games for a team with a lights out bullpen is part of the story.

  25. i’m proud I hi-jacked a post about santos and mcgowan and turned it into a full blown argument about rasmus

  26. Just what I said he k’s a lot.

    Where did you get this weird idea that because a player he strikes out a lot, he will have a especially good BAVG on his balls in play? Because that seems to be what you’re saying and it’s a pretty weird idea.

    Here is the career BABiP of the 10 guys who lead the AL in strikeouts

    Chris Carter .285
    Mike Napoli .309
    Chris Davis .340
    Adam Dunn .286
    Mark Reynolds .303
    Colby Rasmus .298
    Mark Trumbo .290
    Evan Longoria .305
    J.P. Arencibia .262
    Jarrod Saltalamcchia .320

    Some of them are getting lucky on their balls in play this year, and some of them aren’t. That is all.

    • This weird idea is called MATH. BABIP is a math formula, nothing else. It doesn’t measure anything. I didn’t say high k’s = high babip.

      since you don’t seem to understand how the formula works I’ll help you out.

      You see BA and BABIP are basically the same formula. The only diff is k’s and hr’s

      So when the spread is high, ie colby, it’s due to high k’s, NOT HITS

      when the spread is low or neg then it’s due to high hr’s.

      there’s no such thing as a babip, it’s made up term.

    • There is no correlation between k-rates and BABIP. They are completely indipendant. I ahve not seen a single correlation showing any interdependence.

      Further, if they were interdependant, you could reason that pitchers could control their BABIP somewhat by changing their k-rate. We know that’s not true.

  27. Let’s try this. By the happiest of coincidences, Rasmus and Encarnacion are both hitting .277 this season. (Edwin’s had 36 more ABs and 10 more hits.) Encarnacion has put 318 balls in play, Rasmus 227 – but on those balls in play, Rasmus has 83 hits and Encarnacion has 81. One guy has been a little unlucky (EE’s career BABiP is actually .276), and one guy has been very, very, very lucky indeed.

    • Wrong. I hate having to explain this to everyone. There’s BOTH hitting .277 so they’re both getting same number of hits! Hits are a function of chances or ab’s not putting the ball in play. If you strike out, that is STILL a chance to get a hit. More of rasmus’s outs are going to k’s which babip doesn’t count causing it to be higher.

  28. But you can’t get a hit if you don’t put the ball in play. Encarnacion has put far, far more balls in play than Rasmus – that’s just counting – but Rasmus actually has more hits on the balls he’s put in play than Encarnacion has on his balls in play. Why is that? Because Encarnacion is hitting just .250 on the balls he puts in play while Rasmus is hitting .366 on the balls he puts in play, That is an absolute fluke – Rasmus has been really lucky – and that’s why they have the same BAVG. Don’t expect to see it next year.

    • “But you can’t get a hit if you don’t put the ball in play. ”

      wrong, what’s a home run then? is that not a hit?

      putting the ball in play is the RESULT not the CHANCE

      you just pointed out that a high babip doesn’t get you more hits, so how can you be lucky if you aren’t getting more hits?

      edwin just doesn’t k as much so you count his out, but colby k’s a lot so you don’t count his.

  29. so we win 42 games out of 55
    it can happen now that we have a good BP

    lol

    i hate myself

  30. I’ll give an analogy. 2 players both shoot free throws. both go 5/10. their avg is .500 right

    but 1 shoots 2 airballs so I decide not to count them since they are not in play so his in play avg is not 5/8 or .625 so he’s getting lucky right?

    wrong. airball is the same as a strikeout. a failed chance. not counting some of the chances causes the avg to go up when he’s not getting any more hits.

    • Over a larger sample the guy who is not shooting as many air balls will hit more buckets in the given scenario.

  31. And the strikeouts count in the overall BAVG, which is why Rasmus is hitting just .277 despite his insane good luck on the balls he puts in play.

  32. ask yourself a simple question, is an AB a chance to get a hit or not?

    if your answer is yes, then k’s count as chances, you can’t just exclude them.

    if your answer is no, then what are home runs a function of since they aren’t in play?

  33. No one is excluding Ks or home runs. They’re both part of the player’s overall performance. But neither represents a ball put in play and the whole point is that Rasmus has collected far more hits on those balls he has put into play than there’s any earthly reason to expect. And that’s a fluke. Come on – .366?

    Here’s the whole team, this year and career. Spot the guy having the unusual season.

    Rasmus .366 (career .298)
    Lind .336 (career .298)
    Reyes .336 (career .313)
    Davis .336 (career .320)
    Cabrera .314 (career .310)
    Bonifacio .267 (career .328)
    Arencibia .264 (career .262)
    Izturis .257 (career .293)
    Bautista .253 (career .268)
    Encarnacion .250 (career .276)
    Lawrie .227 (career .294)

    • what is a fluke? He’s not getting far more hits. He’s hitting .277 so he’s NOT getting lots of hits.

      His babip will drop if his BA drops or his k’s drop.

      You don’t seem to understand the last part.

  34. In your edwin/colby example the big diff is that when colby gets to 2 strikes he’s much worse in BA and k’s a lot more.

    colby’s babip with 2 k’s is .375 while edwins is .268

    so is colby lucky with 2k’s? he’s hitting .184 or is he just k’ing a lot?

    • You two need to stop arguing. It seems neither one of you understands the concepts and is just arguing for the sake of arguing.

      BABIP is partial luck and partial skill (hard hit balls, line drive rate, putting the ball where the fielders are not likely to get it). Having a high BABIP is nice, but I don’t think anyone is claiming that Colby is awesome because of his high BABIP.

      Strikeouts are excluded from BAPIP (as are homeruns) as BABIP is trying to identify players that are likely to regress to a normal BABIP due to fluky SSS performance (either good or bad). BABIP can fluctuate year to year, as there is an element of luck, but at the same time certain hitters tend to have differnent types of BABIPs. Ichiro had a high BABIP early on cause he hit everything softly, bunted, ran fast and had a really good hit-tool.

      You two need to move along.

  35. His BABip will drop because it’s a fluke, and his BAVG will drop right along with it unless he stops striking out so often. Rasmus is getting tons of hits. Tons. Once again – the man has put just 227 balls in play -getting 83 hits out of those many balls in play is insanely lucky. That’s lots and lots of hits on that many balls in play. Once again, Encarnacion has put 318 balls in play – almost 100 more than Rasmus – and has just 81 hits from them. He’s the guy who’s not getting a lot of hits.

    I can’t stick around, but I’ll probably be back. Bringing light to the masses… someone’s gotta do it. Especially when they call you “stupid” and an “idiot.” The work is never done.

    • You also smell funny.

    • It’s funny how you keep arguing with me yet keep agreeing:

      “unless he stops striking out so often”

      so what you are saying is his babip is high because he strikes out a lot?

      Isnt’ that what I’ve been saying the whole time?

    • Just curious colby’s babip in april was .381. why wasnt’ he lucky then? Why did his BA go up after that?

  36. if colby would move the fuck back in the box to get a better look at breaking stuff he might actually make more contact

  37. the problem with war for low contact guys is that it doesnt factor in high leverage situations where the other team brings in their version of delabar and jpa and colby’s k/popup rates skyrocket

  38. let 2014 rosterbation begin.

    i say let colby have season then tender a qualifying offer and hope gose/pillar can get it done between them. also i see no downside in stretching out mcgowan and cecil as starters next spring. if one of them succeeds its a huge win for the team, and you can always go back to the bullpen if it doesnt work. wagner has proven himself worthy of joining delabar and loup in high leverage situations with janssen closing. dickey, buerhle, happ, rogers, cecil/mcgowan with hutchison as #6 or 7 is a relatively cheap and controllable rotation enabling them to spend money on a 2b upgrade with boni playing the rajai role.

  39. “so what you are saying is his babip is high because he strikes out a lot?”

    No, that’s not what I’m saying. No, no, no a thousand times no. There is no connection. None. The at bats where doesn’t put the ball in play have nothing to do with the at bats where he does put the ball in play. Nothing! Nothing at all! This is about the the rest of his at bats – the at bats where he does put the ball in play. The other at bats. When he doesn’t strike out.

    And yes, Rasmus was extremely lucky on those at bats in April – .381 on your balls in play is the sort of thing Ty Cobb used to do. (And Rasmus ain’t exactly Ty Cobb.) His overall April numbers sucked because he struck out a gazillion times, but he was still very lucky on the balls he did put in play. There is no contradiction there. His problem in April, was there weren’t very many balls in play. He was lousy and lucky at the same time, which is a neat trick.

    • You don’t seem to understand that strikeouts DO affect balls in play.

      AB’s = k’s + HR + balls in play

      AB’s are fixed right? therefore more k’s = fewer balls in play

      The point you don’t get is that all hits are a funciton of AB’s including k’s not putting the ball in play.

      If colby takes 3 swings and strikes out, that is still a chance to get a hit. Has nothing to do with putting the ball in play

    • “His problem in April, was there weren’t very many balls in play.”

      once again you don’t seem to understand the correlation between k’s and balls in play..

      WHY weren’t there many balls in play??????????????

      WHAT POSSIBLE REASON COULD THERE BE?????????

      because he struck out the other times!!!!!!

  40. if colby goes 2/10 with 6 ko’s he’s hitting .200 but his babip is .500

    he’s not getting more hits, he’s not getting lucky, he’s just striking out a lot.

    you seem to be stuck on balls in play as if they are magical.

    balls in play ARE NOT CHANCES, they are results.

    how many balls in play does a player have? you don’t know because they are the results of AB’s.

  41. Of course we know how many balls in play a player has. Lord almighty. And knowing what happens on them tells us if a player is hitting in good luck, bad luck, or his regular luck. Enough.already. I fell like I’m beating my head against some very dense wall. “Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens”

    • Don’t act righteous, you’re actually not right about how BABIP works and its a little obvious by your statements about luck.

  42. I have this weird thing when I cough. It sounds like this:
    “sirotka!” My doc says it’s probably nothing, but I say it’s the same condition I had in 2001, which turned out to be a really bad case of gordashemia. Actually my doc did mention that it could be anthopoulitis, so now I’m really worried. I’ve googled lots and the only thing I can come up with that people say is a remedy is to take the herb baseballisdeadtome until the end of October. You guys know anything about this? I’m kinda freaking out. Thanks.

  43. always this defence of guys with ‘potential’ and ‘talent’ who did good things somewhere else, at some other time, or were hoped to be excellent. when are you guys going to get real?? the only thing that matters after a point is whether the guy has been able to display promise/production/reliability on the field FOR the Jays.

    this bullshit of cutting Johnson and Santos and Snider and so forth slack is getting ridiculous. At this point it becomes questionable why the jays are even playing Johnson. We are seriously running a guy with a 6.60 ERA out on the field because he was great some time ago? I don’t doubt the potential…but this is a Romero level bed shitting at this point and the guy needs to figure it out. He’s not figuring squat out on the field.

    And what’s truly infuriating is that because of your blindspot…you’ll actually suggest things like trading Janssen or Cecil or Delabar or Perez…guys that have shown that they continue to provide value over the years…with ups and downs not nearly as nuts as the Johnson’s or Santos (who has yet to display a single fucking game worth of awesomeness).

  44. 339920 596270A really really intriguing post! I

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