As has been obvious for months, basically, Melky Cabrera simply can’t play adequately in the outfield right now, and while the play above was the cherry on top of the giant pile of shit, it’s his legs that have been his undoing. The Jays, mercifully, have stopped trying to hump the dream that he’s passable, placing him on the DL following tonight’s disaster in Anaheim, and calling up Neil Wagner to help ease a bullpen that once again needed to clean up a turd of another kind, which came again from the arm of Josh Johnson.

With a $16-million contract and a two-year commitment to play left field, it’s not like John Gibbons has had much choice but to run Melky out there this year, but with his legs– and the season– in the condition they’re currently in, it’s clearly become untenable.

Maybe it always was– the Jays starters’ second-worst-in-the-league ERA can’t have been helped by poor defence too often at a few too many positions, though their second-worst-in-the-league FIP suggests it’s more down to the pitchers– and certainly they’ll have to reconsider what to do with him next season, as he’s looked far more like a DH than an outfielder this year. And maybe not even that!

Cabrera has been woeful at the plate this year, posting just a .321 on-base in the most hollow way imaginable. His .082 ISO is a career low, eleventh worst among 152 qualified big leaguers, and a far cry from last year’s .170 mark. The most hopelessly reductive thinkers among us, of course, will think they know exactly why Cabrera’s power has been sapped post-PED suspension, but I think it’s completely reasonable to believe the leg issues may have had a lot to do with it as well. Whether his legs deteriorated in the absence of PEDs is, perhaps, another story. Regardless, the key takeaway from this year has been that, while some regression was completely expected by even those of us who are reluctant to assume too much about just how much the PEDs inflated his numbers, as it has been with so many things for these 2013 Jays, the Baseball Gods seem to have shit the worst case scenario down our throats.

Let me put it this way: heading into next year I’m not sure the Jays can just ditch Adam Lind and slide Melky into the DH spot. It’s an insane thought given where the two were a year ago, but its been an insane season. And, as regular readers will know, I’m not even particularly enamored with Lind, at this point, good as he’s been this year. It’s just… picking up his $7-million option only costs the club $5-million (because he’s got a $2-million buyout), and I’m not sure he isn’t going to be the better hitter– especially if, as Gibbons was doing before a mid-season hot streak, he’s utilized properly and shielded from all but the weakest left-handers.

Shit, he might even be the better choice in the field, too.

So what do you do? There isn’t a real easy answer beyond the overly simplistic “trade ‘em all,” and ultimately the unsatisfying answer may be to keep them both and hope for the best.

It’s not like this club isn’t going to go into 2014 with a number of giant question marks anyway. Which isn’t different than any other team, frankly. And I think we’ve learned by now that even what seems like a team that’s got all the bases covered can turn into a giant swirling disasterfuck.

Take Josh Johnson, for example. He shit the bed again tonight (you don’t need me to regurgitate the gory details, I’m sure) and continues to be beyond awful– not even half the player he was last season, when he put up WARs slightly above three by both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference in what we hoped was his first, shaky attempt to reinvent himself post-injury.

So much for that, eh?

Through the night I maintained on Twitter– and still do maintain– that one more horrific outing doesn’t make a whole lot of difference when it comes to the consideration of whether to make him a qualifying offer after the season. If he turns it around and shows anything before the end of the year, I think they will, and should, do it. Writing him off right now, as cathartic as it may feel in the face of these garbage results, is as pointless as it is ridiculous– after all, this is a guy who, back in the spring, we were scheming to find ways the Jays might be able to extend him at less than a market rate pegged at more than $100-million.

That said, he’s making it very fucking difficult for such an experiment to continue playing out until the end of September– as I think it absolutely should, for the good of the asset– to not become entirely untenable. They just can’t let him run out there and get shitcanned every five days and blow up the bullpen in the process.

He’s still on the club for now– no mystery injury was concocted in time for tonight’s roster moves– and he’d need to consent to a demotion (which doesn’t seem terribly likely in the he stretch of a contract year) if they tried to bus him down, so… for now he seems in line to make his next start.

I’m OK with that, actually, and I still believe the stuff and the pedigree is there enough for him to get things turned around. I still think there must be something mechanical he can hit on to limit his struggles from the stretch– or that, perhaps, he’s tipping his pitches, which… even though the Jays said last week they’d considered it and found that he wasn’t, if he were, are they really going to go public with the fact?

But for all the optimism I’m trying to maintain in the face of some really, really, really easily picked low-hanging fruit here, the thing is, if the Jays are more of the same mind as their most frustrated, pissiest of fans and decide they can’t take it anymore, could I blame them?

I soooooooo couldn’t.

Yes, it’s that bad. Even if, as far as the arguing over the $14-million qualifying offer goes, we really just need to be patient and hope for the best.

Uh… you’ll probably want to get used to that phrase. Welcome to the next six months!


Image via Gamereax.

Comments (106)

  1. Under ‘related posts’ Johnson’s Agent: New Jays Could Be Flipped.

    Kind of wishing he was right…..

  2. At this point I wonder if they’d be looking to offer him a Happ-type deal and seeing if he goes for the security in light of how bad it’s been.

    I also wonder if this disasterfuck may go down in history as “the Josh Johnson year.”

    • It hasn’t just been Josh Johnson. There has been a lot of disasterfucks for starting pitching this year. There isn’t a starting pitcher that hasn’t completely fallen apart at times. Johnson had a good streak of starts where he didn’t get any support, and has seem to fall apart since. Dickey has been awful at times, as Mark was often early in the season, Romero stank in his brief cameo, Morrow has imploded on different occasions, even Ortiz sucked after tricking us into thinking he turned back the clock. Happ wasn’t that bad, besides the fact he had a hard time getting 5 innings in before throwing 100 pitches. This is the year of brutal starting pitching, part II. And most of us thought we were way better equipped in starting pitching this year. The sad thing is, they could hope to march out the same five starters next year, and get completely opposite results. Not counting on it, but in baseball, much stranger things have happened.

      • Sorry, I know all that. I just mean if Johnson walks, we’re going to remember this as “the summer we traded for the biggest name pitcher out there and turned the whole rotation into a steaming bag of shit.”

  3. Have to wonder if Romero left some water bottle around the room, that he bought off Ebay from Rick Ankiel in 2000, that Johnson found and has been drinking from?

    You’d think that next year, if Gibby survives, that Walker will gone, and new pitching coach will help spark everyone on the starting rotation to have a significant uptick (only because there’s not much a down tick left).

    • While we’re on the topic of people who sucked in 2000, some guy named Roy Halladay had an ERA of 10.64 that year. It may not happen to Ricky Romero or Josh Tiny Johnson, but you never know, right?


  4. what i don’t get is how they can turn up aces in the pen(+ rodgers), yet have pedigree guys as starters and completely whiff. Morrow never had put it together, in that his fip(?) suggested that he still had room to get better and he was always a little inconsistent. But dickey, Johnson, and Romero must be unhappy fellows.

  5. Garo Yepremian?

  6. #FreePillar

  7. Instead of a QO, maybe they just offer him a 1 year $5M deal? I know then they don’t get the pick if he leaves, but $14M seems like way too much to possibly waste.

    • Couldn’t $14 million get us an excellent bat in the free agent market? Or actually could say $19 mill if you wanted to include the $5 mill you would say by not keeping lind and replacing him.
      Or Hell, let’s sign mccann and nelson Cruz to dh and call it a day. And yes, Stoeten, before you respond with, ya, cause its that easy, i will say that I know its not that easy. Just spitballin’.
      I’m just saying $14 million goes a long way and I would rather not take a flyer on a guy to see what he has at that price when there are solid players available that can make your team better with much less risk.

      • Yes 14 million can get you a good hitter but they’ll want 14 million annually over 8 years or something ridiculous which we don’t want to get locked into. Look at the fiascos; A-Rod, Pujols, Hamilton, etc.

      • You want to spend $14M on a bat? You actually think we have a problem scoring runs? We don’t have reliable starting pitching & every last cent needs to be invested in fixing that nightmarish sh**hole conundrum before we do anything else.
        Pitching & defense wins championships – not $14M DH’s.

    • In my opinion, I would be very surprised if another team offers JJ more than $14 million/year and lose a draft pick as well. I think this scenario unrealistic and just because we can offer him the contract doesn’t mean we should. If this is the case, what is he actually worth. I am curious to see what the number turns out to be.

  8. Would putting Lind in LF for a few games as a platoon partner for Rajai work?

    The team was willing to take Brett Lawrie & put him at 2B for “positional ” flexibility.

    I vaguely recall Lind in LF a few years ago. It wasn’t pretty.

    I think AA will exercise Lind’s option & see if he or Melky can be used in a package as a trade chip for 2014

    • I agree that Lind will be back in 2014. 5M – or 7M, depending on how you look at it – is decent value for a 1-2 WAR player.

      I just don’t think Lind or Melky have enough trade value to even be throw-ins at this point.

      I would be surprised if either of them weren’t on the Jays roster next year.

    • Of the two, Lind and Encarnacion, I’d sooner ask Encarnacion to play LF, as I fear Lind too mentally fragile to handle the stress of playing LF as poorly as he would.

    • Maybe Adam Lind would be better at the plate, if he were playing in the outfield

  9. Wow Stoeten, for a guy who has always criticized reporters/fans/commenters who have come to conclusions that are based on assumptions, you are making one fuck of a pile of assumptions on Melky.

    Yeah maybe Melkys hammys were somehow held together with PEDS and chopsticks, but, wouldn’t it just as easily be plausible that the man who injured himself in the spring has been limping through injuries for the bulk of the year? I’m not saying it is the case but it makes as much sense(or probably more sense) that he has been playing on gimpy legs then he has suddenly started to degrade like military grade plutonium. No one has a half-life that cavernous.

    You don’t go from batting champ to .082 ISO Chump just because you aren’t popping a few greenies or rubbing antler extract on your balls. He’s talented. There are other factors in play obviously.

    Melky has had above average bat speed since he was one of the best prospects in baseball during his Yankee days. (rated best hitter, best defensive outfielder, 7th best Prospect in system). And obviously there are his last 2 & 1/2 seasons of all-star ball.

    I’m going to say that his downturn in numbers directly correlate to his inability to drive through the ball because he can’t transfer his weight. His swing (from what I’ve observed) is all arms right now. That will get you singles and you can probably stay around a .280 avg if you are as skilled as a guy like Melky is. He has been using no lower half & very little torso in his swings.

    Those are my opinions, I didn’t take this stuff from ESPN so you can dismiss it if you want. But I know the game. Melky is much better then he has shown, you are being obstinate by judging him solely based on his work in a Jays uniform. Feel free to carve me but I think my hypothesis is much plausible then yours.

    • Much more plausible.

    • If you use PEDs your body heals much faster then without, and you might not notice the differnece as much… I think thats what he was alluding to…

    • I’ve been lobbying for Melky to DL for a whole. The guy is not right. I wouldn’t mind if he was shelved for the rest of the season and put on a rehab program to get him back in shape for next year.

      Re: Lind: exercise the option, resign Rajai, platoon them.

    • I agree with you, smasher, across the board. AS I have mentioned he is a 275 singles hitter. You hvae stated very well the reasons why that is and the lack of weight transfer is a big part of it. Bring him back in the spring and see how it goes is probably their best option now, as his trade value is nil

  10. So what happens if the Jays decide they want to send Johnson down, and he refuses? Does he have to pass through waivers? If so, I would imagine another team would take a flyer on him, but is that a bad thing for the Jays?

    His ERA over his last 4 starts is 14.06. I can’t see why they’d give him more than two more starts of this type before removing him from the rotation, somehow. And I don’t know, but after this disaster of a season so far, I think I’d have to see a stretch of 5-6 starts with an ERA under 3.50 and no bad games before I’d even consider giving him that $14M qualifying offer.

    If he goes into the offseason with an ERA over 6.00, nobody is going to offer him more than an Melky-type contract (2 yrs, ~$15M total), at best. This is Johnson’s 8th full season, and he’s made 30 starts just twice and topped 200 IP once. I’d say that track record exclaims “You can’t count on me”.

    • I think it would work like this:

      –Put him on revocable trade waivers
      –If claimed — Jays can either trade him to that team, give him up for nothing to that team, or pull him back
      – If not claimed, he can be traded to any team

      If a team claims him, I say let him go. But not actually sure anyone would pull the trigger. Whatever’s left on his deal (must be around $4-5 mil) is a steep price for two months even of mediocre Josh Johnson, let alone disasterfuck Josh Johnson.

      If he went unclaimed, they could still try to trade him while eating some or all of the money. If the Jays pay everything maybe they get a C prospect back.

      If they can’t do any of those things they could follow another process:

      –Designate for assignment
      –He goes on irrevocable waivers, meaning he can’t be pulled back if claimed (but presumably he wouldn’t be, since all teams would already have had a shot at him)
      –Assuming not claimed, they have 10 days to trade him, release him, or outright him to the minors

      Unfortunately, I think he may have enough service time to refuse an outright assignment. So at that point all they can do is trade him (but they would already have explored this as above) or release him.

      Teams put a lot of players on revocable waivers in August so I’m sure JJ will be put on there. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jays let him go if claimed, but a claim is probably a longshot. The most realistic outcome would be working out a “trade” where the Jays eat some of the money, but it may not be worth it to AA to do that optics-wise just to save a few million.

    • Sending Johnson to the minor leagues is not an option.

  11. I just noticed that “Drunk Jays Fans” is “Powered by Coors Light”. Wouldn’t that be like having monster truck blog “Powered by Briggs & Stratton”?

    • “Drunk Jays Fans, powered by that overproof stuff your dad made in the bathtub to strip paint off various things”

  12. Hard to believe out of the three pitchers the jays picked up last offseason Buerhle is the best one! Why is it always the worst case scenario that comes true with this team why can’t it be the best case for once ! Hows is it even remotely possible that in a free agent walk year Johnson barfs up this beauty ? He pitches like he’s a midget instead of a 6’7 beast no attitude no threatening presence just meek and wimpy. Should have took Rickey Nolasco instead !

    • Dickey is ok just not the ace people want him to be

      • Seriously? Fuck off…Dickey is very, very far from okay. This isn’t about expectations, he’s been absolutely brutal.

        • He’s been much better than you’re giving him credit for.

          • He has given up 4 runs or more in half his starts and 6 runs or more in a third of his starts. He is exactly as bad as I give him credit for.

    • Bautista and Encarnacion are both pretty good examples of “best case” scenarios.

      Scrubs throw on a Jays jersey and suddenly become world beaters. Unbelievable as it seems It actually does happen!

  13. Remember last year when we saw the simultaneous implosion of every arm in the starting rotation and then in the off-season we were so excited by the fact that there was no way this could happen again? Fuck me.

  14. Dickey, Morrow, Johnson, Buehrle, Romero – could this be one of the best rotations in the AL? <- a legitimate thought that crossed my mind this spring.

    Holy fuck has 2013 been a complete shit show.

  15. Melky’s play was just sad and was just another in a long line of awful players brought in this season.

    The “how could anyone have known” excuse or the notion that “I agreed with all his moves” are really tired when it comes to Alex Anthopolous.

    The thing is that it is his job to evaluate talent and put together a team as such it’s his reputation that is at stake when there are so many failures in one season. He presumably has more access to information than a membership to Baseball Prospectus or knowing how to google Fangraphs. It is his job to make the right call and in this he has failed. It doesn’t matter if you agreed with him and were wrong too.

    - Josh Johnson……..nothing to say that hasn’t been said here
    - R.A. Dickey – Been completely disappointing.
    - Melky Cabrera – I figured his low point came with the Cespedes stand up triple but Melky proved that you can always sink a little lower.
    - Izturis – Pretty awful addition
    - Bonifacio – see Izturis
    - Buehrle – Buehle is going t0 buerl but it’s hardly worth 19 million a season
    - Jose Reyes – injured again but pretty good while playing; returns may diminish with time. Still at this point a reasonable addition.

    These were the players scouted and brought in by AA. It’s hard to see AA as anything but a failure as a GM. He has no system, a bad team and very little room to shake things up.

    When one of your biggest off season issues is, “do I offer Josh Johnson and his six and a half ERA (over 7 run average) 14 million because I simply have no other options?” Things may have hit rock bottom………………….but as Melky proved to me last night: There is always room to sink a bit lower.

    • Hey look at me I’m.a genius who should be hire me fuck off idiot

      • The completion of this sentence doesn’t do much to give credibility to your claim of genius. I’m not saying you shouldn’t apply, I’m just saying that the Jays should go a different direction.

        • Still doesn’t excuse the fact that your original comment was all kinds of useless

          • What part do you disagree with?

            • Only the part where you use hindsight to decide decisions made this past winter/spring are now bad.

              You can bitch all you want about bad performance – its totally justified. But anyone who argues the process AA used misses the point. If you could explain how AA could see into the future that player x would have a career worst year then please do…

              • It’s not my job to GM. A proper assessment can only be made in hindsight when the results are in.

                Opinions without results are worthless. i.e. Thinking something would work that didn’t. That doesn’t mean a job well done.

            • This part.

              ” It’s hard to see AA as anything but a failure as a GM. ”

              Incredibly uninformed comment.Ya gotta think a little before making that statement.

              • What has he won? Has the team’s record gotten better since he’s been the GM? Is there a single bat in the system that realistically can be looked to for anything? Is the system in general anything to write home about?

                Is there any player he has added to this team that has made a significant contribution without an equal or greater amount of disappointment? (Not a bullpen arm)

                Please inform me.

                • Who’s replacing him,
                  Riccardi, or Ash again fuck off

                • And you were praising him over the winter

                  • First of all that wouldn’t make a hypocrite even if true. So if a fan liked Melky in December they can’t hate him in August? His performance has been awful and so has AA’s.

                    It’s also not my job to find a replacement. I don’t have the privilege to the information that people hired to make baseball decisions have. I can only go by the results.

                    If they hire someone and I agree with the hire I am still allowed to criticize when things go to shit.

                    How can any GM be considered good when they are yet to add much of anything to the team that has produced value.

                    For example, he traded Avilies and Gomes for Esmil Rogers. Those two have produced about 2.0 WAR better than Rogers and the Jays could have used both. That is a bad trade now that we can evaluate it. At the time of the trade means nothing because we don’t know how it will work out.

                    It’s AA’s job that more work out than don’t and when the they don’t criticism is fair and no hypocritical. That notion isn’t even what hypocritical means.

                    • You’re kidding yourself if you think Gomes was going to start over Arencibia enough to have put up those same numbers here, and the same goes for Aviles. Sorry, but you can’t just look at things in a WAR vacuum.

                    • If we are going to do that, I can cherry pick trades too. What about Eric Thames for Steve Delabar. How do their WAR’s compare?

                • The major league team sucks so… system derp derp derp….no good bats derp (look at EE, Bautista, and Rasmus’ stats if you want to satisfy your ” any player he has added to this team that has made a significant contribution without an equal or greater amount of disappointment?” argument )

                  So….now that you realized your comment was dumb you change the perimeters of the discussion to include the farm system?

                  I understand its hard to formulate an argument….I get that but come on.

                  Most of the prospects AA traded are ranked high (see Mets system, Marlins system). Follow the logic (I’ll go slow). AA trades good prospects for good players. Players have a bad year. Yes it sucks, I get that, but it doesn’t mean AA ‘hasn’t done anything’. Why would it cost highly ranked prospects (look up Marsinick, Syndergaarwhatchaname, d’arnaud, etc.) to get these players???? – well probably because they were GOOD players…

                  Also: can you explain this: “Opinions without results are worthless” I honestly don’t know what this means….

                • Alrighty then.
                  The main issue with the Jays after 2012 was SP.With durabilty and injury issues,the Jays needed solid SP.
                  So what AA got was,
                  A guy who,over the last 3 years improved every year,led the NL in SO’s,had a low walk rate,Cy Young winner,no recent history of injury,no UCL so no danger of TJ.can go deep into games.
                  An innings eater,pitched over 200 innings for the last ten years.not pretty but he ain’t goin down to injury. Your typical “crafty vetran”
                  A guy one year removed from winning the ERA title.A guy with mid 90′s fireball who just had an off year and going into FA.A guy, in preseason if he was available, teams might have made an offer of over 100 million to get.A stud.
                  Add this to a emerging star who pitched the second best game in the history of baseball.
                  And all that pushes your opening day starter from 2011 to #5.The same starter who had his surgery to correct his woes from 2011.
                  Going into 2013, would you not make the same moves if you were GM?You can’t fault the logic or the decisions.
                  What would you have done differently?
                  Remember that a majority of experts from ESPN to SI to BP to Vegas, all picked the Jays for the playoffs. With may saying the jays were favorites for the WS.

                • This is nails. I’m with you.

            • Also the part where you cherry pick every possible negative from this year and classify them as the “players AA brought in” while failing to mention the successes of a number of players he also brought in, Rasmus, Delabar, Rogers to name a few.

              • The Rogers trade was a disaster.

                • A disaster? A marginal backup catcher and a utility infielder for a hard throwing spot starter/bullpen arm with a bit of upside. Sure Gomes has put up some halfway decent numbers with Cleve to this point, but lets not go carried away with where his potential really lies.

              • Let’s include Rasmus and a few relievers. Still adds up to a team in last place.

                The fact that he traded good prospects for bad and took on unmanageable contracts at the same time isn’t a feather in his cap.

                • for the record here. E5 and Bautista were here when he got here. Also I was talking about a bat in the farm system. It’s barren.

                  • You’re getting stupid EZ.
                    So many holes in you arguments.
                    Add this,ridding the Jays of the Wells contract, gaming the system so bad that MLB had to change the rules immediately so AA wouldn’t keep amassing assests.

                    You asked to be educated,I obliged.
                    Time to start learning.

                  • I assume in 1991 (if u were alive then) u were saying that Pat Gillick should be fired b/c they hadn’t won a world series yet. Not saying that AA is comparable to Gillick; he’s gotta win something first, but your mixing up process and results is thunderously idiotic.

                • Don’t forget Bautista and Encarnacion. Who do you think brought them here?

    • We get it, you don’t like the results and you refuse to wrap your mind around the fact that good process can lead to bad results and want to invent reasons to justify the hopelessly negative feelings that you have– things like the supposed fact he has no farm system, or attempting to call him a failure after one bad season (as though the other ones, when he clearly wasn’t even attempting to be a contender, count like he was trying to win and failed).

      Getting pretty close to done with this revisionist one-note pissy negative nonsense, frankly.

      • But you do have to admit Andrew that we’ve seen this play out with AA’s predecessor JP: He looked good when he was being frugal, and looked really bad when he finally got to spend some money.

        • OMG! Something happened twice!

        • JP was the anti Blue Jay. He fired every one from the mascot to the scouts to instructors and coaches. Started drafting college players and signed crazy contracts(for the time, and a reliever with no long term success for 50 million). Not to mention he had a hand in changing their name from the Blue Jays to the Jays. Don’t forget that he also liked to trash players from opposing teams, which made it real easy to want to go to Toronto. JP used a loosely based theory, his own dumb twist on money ball, and left the cupboards bare and AA inherited one of the most overpaid players in baseball.

          Just the fact that AA got rid of the Wells contract and was able to restock the selves, show way more thought to the process that had been seen around here since the days of Gillick. The thing I hated the most when they hired JP, was that he is from Boston. JP was the worst thing to ever happen to this franchise in my opinion.

  16. All five have been great at one point in their career. The problem now is that all five are not near to what they were.

    Dickey is fine on the road, and i’m guessing that his KN gets smacked hard at Rogers Centre which explains the difference in ERA and BA for his home/away splits. Buck/Tabler tell fans that Dickey needs to keep the ball down. How the hell do you do that with a KN?

    Johnson probably needs a trip to Buffalo or they need to bring up a AAA starter who can pitch 5-6 innings of long relief without an issue. Wagner is not that guy. Romero can make a spot start — he would do better than Johnson.

    But yeah, 2013 starting pitching has been terrible.

  17. I wonder why people are so hesitant to believe that PEDs don’t help a great deal. Okay, I understand being skeptical, but many are mocked (here and elsewhere) and referred to as “hopelessly reductive thinkers” (which, to my mind, sounds like the term one uses for someone applying Occam’s razor when you don’t agree with them) for suggesting they have a large influence.
    I won’t present all the arguments, other than to firstly state that the scientific question isn’t truly answered in the public field, as far as I can tell. But why would very intelligent people, with vast power and wealth and (expensive) doctors at their disposal, with a lot to lose (albeit with a lot to gain, as well), invest so much time and energy into elaborate doping programs (elaborate) over the course of many, many years, with many people subscribing to the program (so plenty of “sample size”) if they could not feel/see any difference? This is when trainers and athletes are scrutinizing the tiniest detail of practice and competition and method. I, for one, would not be surprised to see public scientific knowledge in a few years catch up to specialized “hidden” science and know the vast benefits of (very) scientifically advanced drugs. Well, not the deer antler stuff I guess.

  18. By the way Stoeten, I am not really criticizing you directly here. For me, you present skepticism, but not extreme in either direction.

  19. In a surprise twist, apparently Neil Wagner will be playing LF

    Gibby the…. best?

    • He likely will be better out there than Melky, and you would think his arm is likely able to get a few assists

  20. Josh johnson has cost himself so much money its almost unbelievable….
    what do you think he’s lost in guaranteed money because of this season? 90 million dollars?

  21. I went back and read some comments on DJF blog posts right after the big trade. Oh fickle hand of fate. People are spinning faster than a top with their 180 degree opinion on AA.

  22. at this rate they should be able to resign him for $1 million for next year

  23. Think it’s possible the timing of putting Melky on the 15 day was influenced by the possibilityof a suspension?

    That is, have they kept him on the 25 man for the last week or so. waiting to hear if he was going to be suspended? If Melky was on the DL when/if a suspension came down, they’d have to wait an extra 15 days to start the suspension.

  24. Radars post is bang on for the armchair gm’s out there

  25. No matter how shit this 2013 team has been this year, I still have hope that AA can make a few offseason moves. Almost everyone is pulling a 180 and calling for his head. He’s honestly tried his best to bring talent in, they’re just not producing, you can’t really fault him for that.

  26. I think in a sense it is not revisionist but goes to the Bonaparte saying

    “I know he’s a good general, but is he lucky?”

    The access to information is almost perfect for all market participants. So in reality it comes down to circumstance and chance.

    look at the Pirates very few said they would do this in 2013.

    Therefore AA may have done everything right but he may not be lucky. if he isn’t lucky in 2014 he probably loses his job. Yet he will probably find another as people will recognize he does his home work etc but was just unlucky.

    I know that does ring well with the 100% sabermetric types but I think it captures both arguments here.

    Although Fortune favours the brave kind of kicks him in the nuts

  27. I wouldn’t think AA is going anywhere soon. Rogers knows that they have a hard working, sharp guy. He’s here for a while. They would probably have to get rid of Beeston as well since they come as a package.

  28. If Melky had been on the warning track on that play, and the ball had went backwards and over the wall, what would have the ruling been? ground rule double? HR?

  29. At the end of the day AA isn’t Dave Littlefield and for that we can all be grateful.

    I do think that the Marlins trade was one you had to do,

    The RA Dickey trade is a toss up you can see the pluses and the negatives, the most obvious NL to AL east. Which ever way you jump you could get hit for

    I dont think he should have signed Melky and that is one I would hold him accountable for. I believe PED’s make a huge difference otherwise no one would take them. I dont believe he could accurately evaluate the talent and 16MM could easily have a value of 1MM which in essence it does at this stage assuming 490,000 a year base salary.

    My real concern is why little was done at the trade deadline. When you look at what KRod netted for the Brewers I think the bullpen pieces could have seen some returns.

  30. I’ve reached the point where every time Johnson pitches I write it off as a loss. I have zero faith in Johnson. To me, a worse case scenario would be for the Jays to let Johnson walk and have him sign with the Yanks, Red Sox or Rays and turn in an 18-5 season and credit his turnaround to his new organisation. This would call into question the competency of the Blue Jays entire braintrust.

  31. The process looked good to me, too. But when the results are bad, it’s time to go back and take a good hard look at that process again. I don’t think it’s no good to say “good process, bad results, shit happens.” Maybe the process wasn’t really as good as you thought it was, and maybe there’s something to be learned from how it actually played out., from the difference between what you expected what happen and what actually happened.

    In particular, this team may need to reconsider how they evaluate talent, how they develop talent, how they coach and manage talent… whoa. That’s a lot of reconsidering.

  32. I know that the veteran leadership/team guy narrative is horrible and I’ll get shit on for this but I really think that a defensive minded catcher who can better handle the pitching staff could go miles to improve this team going forward…I think one could speculate that throwing to JP doesn’t bode well for the confidence of the pitchers at this point. Not saying it’s a cure all but that is my Christmas wish for this team and it’s not like we’re getting and offence from JP anyways…

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