August 5th v Mariners

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 1.87 0.164
Davis – LF 1.41 -0.160
Bautista – RF 0.78 0.030
Encarnacion – DH 1.92 0.087
Lind – 1B 1.82 -0.082
DeRosa – PH / 1B 5.91 0.355
Rasmus – CF 1.14 -0.102
Izturis – 2B 1.19 -0.113 Pitcher pLI WPA
Lawrie – 3B 0.85 0.265 Dickey – SP 1.20 0.139
Thole – C 1.46 -0.148 Loup – RP 0.45 0.011
Arencibia – PH / C 0.28 -0.007 Janssen – RP 0.87 0.060
Total 1.48 0.291 Total 1.15 0.209

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOOT: Mark DeRosa, 35.5%
Griffin: Rajai Davis, -16.0%
Impact At-Bat: DeRosa 2-Run Single, Top 8, 35.5%
Impact Pitch: Justin Smoak Home Run, Bot 7, -24.8%
Highest Leverage AB: DeRosa 2-Run Single, Top 8, 5.91
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Kyle Seager Flyout, Bot 5, 2.75
Lineup Contribution: 29.1%
Pitching Contribution: 20.9%
Average Leverage Index: 1.32
Chart explanation

- R.A. Dickey’s line: 7.2ip, 8h, 1er, 2bb, 5k, 1hr, 104 pitches, 14 swinging strikes, 62 game score, 4.21FIP.

- Hisashi Iwakuma’s line: 7.1ip, 4h, 2er, 2k, 3bb, 102 pitches, 8 swinging strikes, 61 game score, 3.72FIP.

- The Dickster pitched into the 8th inning for the first time since June 26th. He scattered 8 hits over the night, only getting really hurt on Justin Smoak’s lead-off home run in the 7th inning. It looked like there might be more of what we’re used to in the 1st inning when a dropped 3rd strike put two on with two out. After a smooth 2nd inning, Humberto Quintero lead off the 3rd with a ground rule double, but Dickey managed to get an inning-ending double play to escape trouble. He got another one in the the 7th to escape having runners on the corners. Dickey has allowed just one earned run in his last two starts, both of which came on the road.

- Aaron Loup recorded the 3rd out of the 8th and Casey Janssen got three straight ground outs to first to pick up his 20th save.

- The Jays struggled to get the offense in gear early, failing to get any real threat going until the 8th. Brett Lawrie lead off the inning with a triple and was driven in by a solid Jose Reyes shot up the middle. Three batters later True Blue Jay Mark DeRosa ripped a bases loaded single into left to score Reyes and Bautista and give the Jays a two run lead.

- Lawrie was zoned in all night, notching three hits including a triple and a double, all 3 to the opposite field. He’s hit .278 since returning from the DL and has hits in 8 straight games, including five extra base hits. He’s raised his average 16 points in the last week.

- Jose Bautista recorded an error in the 7th on a poorly played ball right after the Smoak HR, but a double play erased the bad karma that loomed.

- The gif above is doubly adorable and entertaining when you remember Lawrie tripping over Dickey last week. Hugs and laughter abounded afterwards.

- 7 hits for the Jays, including a pair from Reyes. Edwin Encarnacion drew 3 walks.

- 32,000+ were in attendance at Safeco, and in line with Dave’s post yesterday the majority of them were loud and excited Jays fans that appeared to be having an awesome time.

- The (52-60) Jays win Game 1 of the series, and Game 2 is tonight at 10:10pm EST.

- The projected matchup is Josh Johnson (4.77FIP, 0.4fWAR) vs Felix Hernandez (2.44FIP, 4.9fWAR). Oh.

Comments (57)

  1. Funny how now that Lawries got a 1.000+ OPS the past 14 games, you don’t hear about his piss poor attitude, and bad teammatesmanship.

    Do we still want to dump him for nothing? Or is that done for now?

    • Don’t you get it? NOTHING MATTERS ANYMORE.

    • That’s a pretty small sample size for such a high horse.

      As with most things, the truth is in the middle. Those wanting to ditch Lawrie already are idiots, I agree. But it’s equally idiotic to think that a good 14-game stretch means anything.

      I certainly hope it does, but he’s going to have to produce for a lot more than two weeks.

      • Nah, Lawries good.

        He’ll be a star.

      • Not my point.

        My point is, all the idiocy about his percieved personality shortcomings were all because of his performance, and not his personality at all.

        FOr one, none of us know him.

        But so many clowns were using his “personality deficits” as reasons for why we should basiclly dump this uber talented kid whose playing for peanuts before he’s even 24.

        The narrative changes based on his performance is my point, and it’s idiotic.

        If he does the Lawrie thing and OPS’s .650, he’s a hothead, immature, a bad teammate, and a clubhouse cancer. If he acts the exact same way but OPS’s .850, he’ll be a gamer, a fiercer competitor, a hard nosed player with a strong desire to win and a guy who “plays the game the right way”

        It’s idiotic.

        • Actually, that just seems like common sense to me.

          If a guy acts like a douche and hits .200, you’re not going to have a lot of patience for his antics.

          If he’s raking, fuck, you won’t just tolerate it; you’ll outright celebrate it.

          It might not be right, but I’m pretty sure that’s been happening forever.

          Bottom line is: He’s got to produce. And as good as the last 14 games have been, he’s still sitting on a miserable season.

          This forum seems to be all about taking the extremes. When the Jays lose, everybody should be DFA’ed or fired and those that thought the trades were good are morons.

          When the Jays win, it’s all “where are the haters now!?” Everyone who ever said anything bad about a blue jay is an idiot!

          Truth is, the jury is still out on Lawrie. I think it’s fair to say he’s at least a bit of a douche. We know that much. Now we just have to find out what kind of a baseball player he is.

          (also, I’m hoping that he becomes less douchy with age)

          • For the record, I’ve been calling out those idiots who wanted him dumped for nothing even when he was complete dogshit all season.

            I’m not coming out of the woodwork now, I’ve been preaching this all year. And I’m not even talking about his performance. I’m well aware of small sample sizes.

            I’m talking about how it’s funny the “bad attitude” chirping is gone now that he’s on a hot streak.

        • You could draw a similar line to the trolls calling for AA’s head on a platter.
          Seven months ago, the “fans” were standing in line to fondle the wunderkind’s balls. Now that the team is underachieving, he got stupid all of a sudden. All those moves that were universally heralded as bold ones, are now characterized as short-sighted and reckless.

      • WBC + injuries + rush back + desperate ball club true indicator of talent.

        While 14 gms is a SSS, I think you’ll see more of this Lawrie ad less of that (pre- ASB) Lawrie as the season winds down.

      • Yes, the sample size is small, but coupling it with the change to his stance (upright, quieter) makes it more compelling than if he’d simply had a good couple weeks with nothing visibly different.

    • I’d just like it if he learned how to run the bases and didn’t throw stuff at umps.

    • Do not look for logic where none is to be found.

  2. #DickeyTheBest

    • And I mean his reaction to the infield fly, not his pitching. Though the latter was on point as well.

  3. That’s the thing Rob, when he’s playing well you can tolerate the idiocy, but when he’s not, why bother? He’s certainly been a lot better since the ASB, but its only a handful of games. Hopefully he’s learned from his mistakes and can be more like the player we saw in 2011. If so, its worth putting up with the antics. If he’s going to put up a sub-.700 OPS, its not.

    • Lawries not an idiot, he just “colourful”.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhGq7qmm6dw

      • depends on how he plays. If he sucks, he’s an idiot. If he’s good, he’s colorful.

        Just like now that the Jays are losing, they’re a leadship problem and serious clubhouse issues. If they were in first place, they’d be the loveable quirksters with all their fancy HR celebrations and shit.

    • I never really minded his “antics’ anyway.

      He’s competetive to a fault, no doubt. But I’d prefer that to a Robinson Cano loafing it all over the field (anybody catch that game last night? He made Escobar look like Charlie Hustle). I’ve yet to see Lawrie do anything but run out a ground ball 110% every single time (and there’s been a lot of opportunity to watch him run out ground balls the last two years).

      Sure his tempter has gotten him in trouble, but beyond a few memorable events (pretty much the ump/helmet thing last year) when has he really done anything to hurt the team because of his attitude?

      I mean, Robbie Alomar fucking spit into an umpires face, and we love him. Lawrie didn’t do anything REMOTELY as cunty as that.

  4. Maybe I’m a hopeless optimistic but through all the shit haze of shittiness this year I still see a solid squad. I say bring ‘em pretty much all back next year and make a couple of tweaks and 2014 should bring better results.

    • I think so too.

      And regardless of what we think, that’s what’s going to happen anyways, so we may as well enjoy it.

      AA is not going to start a rebuild, because if he did he would be admitting such failure of his first one, there’s no way Beeston could allow him to do another one.

      So right now he’s playing with house money. If next year sucks, he’s gone. If he starts a rebuild now he’s gone. But if he just holds the line and they win, he’s a genius with a big raise.

    • Agreed. Get excited for the team next year when they win and get excited for, um, something else where they lose.
      http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/reversestandings2014

      The table suggests that both Jays picks get protected if they finish in the bottom 10. That’s actually quite a bit of incentive to get some losses (argh, I feel like the worst kind of fan when I say that). Presumably, the FA market will be looked at in order to plug some holes so protecting the picks would be awesome.

      I’d love to see Choo as a Blue Jay. An OF of Bautista/Rasmus/Choo would be fantastic. Or, hell, trade Bautista for a king’s ransom and replace him with Choo. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that Choo will have as high or higher WAR that Bautista over the next 2-3 years.

      • Or sign Cruz

      • Choo would be fuckin awesome but I think what resources AA is given should be dorected at starting pitching.

        • If we’re playing arm chair GM then, if I sign Choo, I’m looking to move Bautista for pitching. He’s got a tremendous amount of value and could bring in a pretty impressive piece.

          There aren’t many FAs who I’d be willing to commit long term money to (Cano, Choo, Ellsbury, McCann) and none of them are pitchers. To get some solid pitching for next year, I’d be looking at the trade market and the patching up whatever I traded away with FAs.

          The Jays really don’t have that much committed financially past 2015/2016 so making another move this offseason should hopefully be somewhat palatable for Rogers

          • Stop.

            • Why?
              Idle speculation can be fun, as long as it’s taken with the grain of salt. I think I prefaced it sufficiently to show it’s just fun and games.

              Just because you’re tainted from covering the sport as your job, don’t forget that it was fun back in the day to debate what you’d do if you were the GM.

    • Agreed

  5. JJ vs. Felix – think I’ll put on a film tonight.

    Lawrie: FULLY #DIMED once more.

  6. There’s a chance JJ could be released if he shits the bed tonight

  7. It’s been 5 days since Johnson last pitched already!?

    • I”m going to set my over/unders for Johsons line toinght: 2.25 IP, 6.5 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 3 k’s

      • Nah, I think he’ll do well.

        A poor hitting team in a huge ballpark. He still has stuff, I think RC has just given him shellshock and he nibbles. If he feels confident enough to go after hitters (which he should at Safeco) I think he’ll do just fine.

      • I”m going to set my over/unders for Johsons line toinght: 2.25 IP, 6.5 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 3 k’s

        I’ll take the Over, Under, Over, Under, Over

  8. Didn’t watchn all the game last night, jsut saw the highlights now.

    More so then Lawries actual numbers lately (.878 OPS since return from injury, 20 games) it’s how he’s LOOKED doing it that has me cautiously optimistic.

    He’s much more queit at the plate, isn’t waggling as much (which I think sapped his power). Yesterdays triple showed excellent plate coverage and good hitting sense. He went oppo field with the outside pitch, which is what good hitters do.

    He’s hitting line drives to the gaps,. when before he was all ground balls, and his K rate is way down since return from injury.

    All this might be coincidence, but maybe not.

    Not to mention, as bad as he’s been for a lot of this year, it’s a relief that he’s flashed power after last years power outage. He’s got 9 in 57 games compared to 11 in 125 last year. He’s on pace for 25 HR/162.

    EE, Bautista and Reyes are going to be stars next year because that’s what they are. But if Rasmus and Lawrie can be what we thought they were, that goes a long, long, long way towards making this team the most feared offensive team in baseball.

  9. WTF happened to Thole’s bat? He crushed in Buffalo and is a career .252 hitter, had some really solid years with the Mets… Chalk it up to limited sample size?

    • It’s almost like Triple-A is full of shitbag pitchers.

      Also: small sample size.

      Also, maybe harder for some guys when they aren’t getting regular playing time.

      Also, the career numbers look a lot better than recent performance. 2011 was horrific, too.

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