dailyduce2

No Getting Blanked Podcast today, but you can find others at Getting Blanked on iTunes, get it via the RSS feed we have setup, or like Getting Blanked on Facebook in order to get each day’s podcast straight into your news feed (if we bother to post it). While you’re at it, go ahead and like DJF on Facebook, too.

Awesomeness from Drew at Getting Blanked, as he dissects the at-bat that led to Edwin Encarnacion’s home run off Chris Archer yesterday.

Great stuff from Matt Klaassen at FanGraphs, too, as he looks at the season put in by Colby Rasmus, who has turned back the clock to his breakout 2010… sort of.

A number of Jays-related tidbits in Nick Cafardo’s latest at the Boston Globe, as he notes that Mark Buehrle is on the weighted ball program (did we know that already?), adds a small item about Kevin Pillar, and writes about Josh Johnson, who he says has “been shut down for good with a forearm strain, and will now enter free agency. The Jays can’t even make him a qualifying offer.” No, there isn’t some rule, he just means that it seems an untenable proposition at this point. He’s probably right. Also, the local media reports aren’t saying that he’s been shut down for good, so far as I can tell, though there’s no timetable for him to start throwing as yet, and not a tonne of season remaining.

Roster stuff: per a team release the Jays have reinstated Munenori Kawasaki from the paternity list, and have optioned Thad Weber back down to Buffalo (though he’ll be recalled as the club’s 26th man for yesterday’s doubleheader).

In his latest Bullpen post, Richard Griffin talks to Brian Butterfield, and weighs in on the A-Rod mess– though seeming less openly in favour of dickhead Ryan Dempster than he was on Twitter last night.

Elsewhere in the Toronto Star, Brendan Kennedy speaks to Brett Lawrie about his recent turnaround at the plate– or he, at least, tries to, though Lawrie isn’t very quick to talk about what’s going right. While Griffin looks at the wreckage that’s become of the Jays’ rotation this season.

At Sportsnet, Ben Nicholson-Smith recaps a Fan 590 interview featuring agent Scott Boras, who at one point, regarding the Jays’ failure to sign top draft pick Phil Bickford, “suggested that factors other than money ‘may have been a part of the issue’ that kept the sides from reaching a deal.”

Elsewhere at Sportsnet, a trio of items from Shi Davidi, who speaks to the frustrated Anthony Gose, gives us an interesting tidbit on Darren Oliver’s investment in the Steve Jobs biopic Jobs, and looks at the impressive pickup the Jays made when acquiring Todd Redmond.

In a notebook post at BlueJays.com, Adam Berry writes about Anthony Gose, who is looking to turn around a bad season, and Steve Delabar, who still has no timetable for a return, among other things. Another notebook post, this one from Jim Hawkins, includes stuff on Kevin Pillar, whose slow start isn’t dampening his enthusiasm, as well as the wonky leg of Jose Reyes. Yet another notebook post looks at Adam Lind’s recent hot-swinging ways, among other things.

A Canadian Press piece, via the National Post, looks at Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek, and their long road back to the Majors together following both of their having Tommy John surgery a year ago.

Elsewhere in the Post, John Lott profiles Mark DeRosa, who looks like he’s played well enough this year to earn having his option for 2014 picked up.

The Blue Jay Hunter shares a video in which the Jays talk about their various batting superstitions.

Lastly, great stuff from Jared Macdonald at Jays Prospects, who gives us a lengthy look at the path traveled by Kevin Pillar from Bluefield to the Big Leagues.

Comments (50)

  1. Holy crap, that Griffin piece on the rotation is awful. Dickey’s problem isn’t that he “isn’t acting like an ace”, it’s that he’s not pitching like one.

  2. “(though he’ll be recalled as the club’s 26th man for yesterday’s doubleheader).”

    I’m assuming its supposed to be “for tomorrow’s doubleheader” ?

  3. Sorry for posting this here but I don’t seem to be able to post in Getting Blanked. Why no Gettting Blanked podcasts thesedays?

  4. why is a qualifying offer to JJ suddenly untenable? wasn’t the idea always to give it a flyer because it’s only one year and because we want the draft pick?

    • A fairly lengthy string of god-awful starts, followed by one okay start, and that being followed with yet another injury kinda made it nearly impossible. He’s giving up home runs at an insane rate, and his line drive rates are too insane. He also hasn’t regained any of his velocity.

      If he was close to pitching himself out of a job in Toronto where the rest of the rotation is just as shitty, then why he wouldn’t return a draft pick shouldn’t even be asked.

    • 14 million dollars. That is all you need to know.

    • Not sure, but I think Jays would only get the draft pick if another organization signed him before opening day. They would not do that. They’d just wait him out until the deadline passed and then sign him to a one year ($5m?) deal. That’s about the best he will get.

    • I agree though, where did the sentiment of no bad one year deals go? As for regaining his velocity, he’s still throwing mid 90′s, he is just not locating. But the potential is still there, fact is there is no chance of finding someone on the free agent market or trade market that we would be able to afford that has the potential that JJ does, even with his fastball topping out around 94.

  5. i guess you’re saying he signs a minor league deal somewhere and comes up through someone’s org in case of injuries.

    that seems like a plausible outcome.

  6. As crazy as it sounds, i think you have to offer jj a QO. They gave up a lot of prospect capital to get him and one injury plagued poor season isnt enough data to write this guy off as a good ML starter. If he accepts and comes back its a gamble but i think its worthwhile.

    • If the Jays want him badly enough (and they shouldn’t — they have more than enough #5/#6 starters) they can offer him somewhere around 1/$5M in the offseason. That will be enough. There is certainly no need to go 1/$14M. Most teams won’t go beyond a minor-league deal — a few might offer $2-3M. $5M should get it done.

      • At this point I can’t see AA justify 14 million to josh johnson. AA needs cash to upgrade 2B & C plus pay for Colby’s extension & raises to the Buerhle,Reyes & Dickey.

        AA’s two must haves in the Marlins deal, Bonifacio & Johnson are busts, so I doubt he keeps josh johnson.

        Perhaps if Josh accept 1 year at 5 million , it would be OK.

        In 2014, the Jays have Romero,Hutch,Drabek & Redmond waiting.

        • Agreed, why would you spend $14M there? A third of that, maybe. I have no reason to believe as he reaches his 30s he’s worth nearly 8 figures anymore. If he was sturdier during his prime years then maybe, but not now. Put that cash into the holes in the field.

          This does put a dent in the rotation for next year. Buehrle, Dickey and Happ, but who else? Will Morrow pitch more than 100-120 innings? Sounds like your left with RR, Hutch, Drabek and Redmond. Maybe Stroman?

          Are there any halfway decent FA options at SP this offseason? Seems foolish to waste more prospects on a trade.

        • Um, Redmond? For serious? I get that he has been ok, but there is no way I would go into a playoff hopeful year with him as a regular member of the rotation…even a 6 or 7.

        • None of those people can be counted on for next year, at best 2 of them spend some time in the majors, realistically 1 or none of them stick for the year.

    • I was thinking of some angle on the QO to JJ like a team option to reduce the AAV but that idea is cooked and done. NO ONE would offer that much for that pitcher. I’m in the 5-6 mill camp with a team option for a 2nd year AND a stipulation that he go on the weighted ball programme..

      • I don’t think you can put an angle (options, term etc.) on the QO. Otherwise every team would offer 14 years at $1 million/year and then take the draft pick when the player refused, as they all would. I think it needs to be a straight 1 year, $14 million deal without any conditions.

        JJ might already be on the weighted ball program, he was seen several weeks ago with one in his hand. Although it’s had good results for a few pitchers, I don’t think it’s going to be the magic bullet for everybody. Whether he’s on it or will be on it shouldn’t change anybody’s strategy in terms of what contract to offer.

        The best thing for JJ would probably be a change of scenery. I think it’ll take substantially more than other teams are offering for the Jays to re-sign him and I don’t see how AA can justify offering a premium over the market price. He’d be better off signing with a team like Cleveland for $3 million and being out of the spotlight playing for a fan base that doesn’t already hate him.

      • Ya, even with one bad year, one horrible year, I would be shocked if 5 mil did it for Johnson. Some GM is gonna remember Johnson at his peak and take a flier at say 10.

  7. How much worse would Ricky Ro have been than JJ this year?

    Got to see him at Pawtucket on Saturday night. He looked like old Ricky. Tons of first pitch strikes, got out of a bases loaded jam with only one run in (a sac fly) and pitched 7 full innings. He only walked 1 and that sac fly was the only run he let up.

    • +1. Good to see Ricky Ro back. Griffin thinks tht Ricky is mad at the jays for making him switch mechanics. Ricky & Lind could be trade bait.

  8. I can’t imagine a scenario where the Jays give Johnson the qualifying offer and he declines.

    So the draft pick part of this pretty much has to be ignored, I think.

    Is JJ at around $14 million for 2014 worth it?

    It all depends on the 2014 payroll I suppose.

    • Would you have given Romero $14 million on a 1 year deal after last season? His 2012 was roughly on par with Johnson’s 2013, and his previous two years were not that much worse than Johnson’s previous two, especially when you consider that Romero was pitching in a much tougher division.

      I would hope that it wouldn’t take the benefit of hindsight to realize that doing that deal would have been ludicrous.

      If I had to place a bet on how Johnson’s 2014 will shape up, I’d look to Ricky’s 2013 as a likely scenario. The thing is, JJ doesn’t have options, so he’ll be doing his damage in the majors. But the other thing is, whoever signs him will likely be doing so on a flyer 1 year/$2-3M deal, so if he truly sucks (and the team that signs him is in contention and/or has better options) he’ll be released. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him pitching for the Long Island Ducks in 2015, alongside Brandon Morrow.

      • I don’t think the Romero and JJ comparisons are all that, you know, comparable.

        That said, barring a major payroll spike I agree that bringing back JJ at $14 million isn’t a good bet to make.

    • Don’t forget the market value. Whoever made the point that there’s at least 1 GM out there who would sign him for 3 mill is right. I also think that the Rays or O’s would LOVE the chance to turn him around. Thats why I think that AA should extend him before his free agency. But first do a good review of what the market is for an ok but injury prone pitcher after a terrible year.

      • I don’t know if there’s a way to structure an extension that appropriately balances risk and reward in a way that both the player and the team would find acceptable.

        First off, I don’t think any team out there is going to commit to 2 guaranteed years for a guy who is 1) made of glass and 2) hasn’t even looked like an MLB-calibre pitcher for most of the season. The guaranteed amount has to be small enough that a team can write it off and release him if he’s utter shit after the first 6-8 starts (if even that many). I think there are definitely a few teams who’d jump in at the $3 million level, but above that it gets to be too much of an investment for someone who isn’t that likely to pan out.

        Then you look at options. Sure, theoretically you could put a deal together that’s something like 1 year/$3 million with 2 options for 2015 and 2016 at maybe say $8M and $10M respectively. That seems reasonable. But if the guaranteed amount is still only the 1 year/$3M why would JJ accept any team options? He’s better off just taking a 1-year deal and then if he’s healthy and has a Cy Young-calibre season he can get a lot more.

        Accepting a deal with options really only makes sense if the player is worried about mitigating risk — either injury risk or suckage. Right now JJ both sucks and is injured. He’s hit rock bottom so he really has nothing to gain by taking a deal before hitting free agency, unless a team is willing to commit to more than one guaranteed year and I just can’t see how that could possibly happen.

  9. Random off-topic thought.

    What’s the difference between JPA and d’Arnaud?

    Answer: it took JP 3 months into the season before he walked 5 times. It took d’Arnaud 3 games.

  10. Ricky Romero for Edwin Jackson.

    Who says no?

  11. You guys are nuts to think JJ is going to sign for 1 year at 5M.

    I think AA will try and get him at 2/20. And I’d be ok with that. He is nowhere near as fucked up as Romero.

    • I don’t think a last place team with gaping holes at C, 2B, LF and the rotation can afford to flush away $20 million on an oft-injured, currently below-replacement-level starter just because he was good three years ago.

      Between RR, Morrow and all the guys coming off TJ, we have enough “projects” to work on without having to try to figure out what’s wrong with JJ. And most of these guys project to be 4s or 5s, exactly what a “fixed” JJ probably is when you consider he’s both a few more years removed from his glory days with some extra mileage and injuries on his arm.

      If there’s a club out there that’ll give Johnson $20 million that would be completely awesome. I love to see teams waste money. But it shouldn’t be the Jays–they’ve got a bunch of other places where that money would be much better spent.

  12. From the recap of last night’s Bisons game:

    “Drabek (1-1) pitched well again, going four innings on 61 pitches, 34 strikes, but earned the loss. He allowed two runs on three hits and a walk and registered a strikeout .”

  13. Matsuzaka just got released by the indians…. Worth picking up? His k/9 and bb/9 are still pretty decent in triple A… Lots of talent in the past. May be worth a try.

  14. Gotta love the people commenting at the end of the Scott Boras article on sportsnet……”all he cares about is money”…..sure, many people don’t like him but he is a businessman!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *