Aug 21 v Yankees

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.97 -0.053
DeRosa – 2B 1.35 -0.107
Davis – RF/CF 1.22 -0.025
Encarnacion – DH 0.90 -0.089
Lind – 1B 1.10 -0.021
Lawrie – 3B 1.37 -0.031
Thole – C 1.56 0.040
Pillar – LF 1.33 -0.010
Gose – CF 1.19 -0.060
Sierra – PH/RF 2.74 0.013 Pitcher pLI WPA
Kawasaki – 2B/SS 1.85 -0.056 Dickey – SP 1.16 -0.101
Total 1.32 -0.399 Total 1.16 -0.101

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!


GBOOT: Josh Thole, 4.0%
Griffin: Mark DeRosa, -10.7%
Impact At-Bat: Jose Thole Solo Home Run, Top 4, 12.3%
Impact Pitch: Alfonso Soriano 2-Run Home Run, Bot 8, -37.7%
Highest Leverage AB: Munenori Kawasaki Flyout, Top 8, 3.52
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Austin Romine Sac Fly, Bot 2, 2.02
Lineup Contribution: -39.9%
Pitching Contribution: -10.1%
Average Leverage Index: 1.42

Chart explanation

- R.A Dickey’s line: 8ip, 6h, 4er, 2bb, 1hr, 9k, 122 pitches, 13 swinging strikes, 61 game score, 3.53 FIP.

- Adam Warren’s line: 3.0ip, 4h, 2er, 2bb, 4k, 61 pitches, 5 swinging strikes, 45 game score, 7.70 FIP.

- The Dickster battled through a complete game effort, putting runners in scoring position in each of the first three innings. He escaped trouble in the first and gave up single runs in the 2nd and 3rd innings, putting the Jays behind. He eased into the middle 3 innings, getting back into trouble in the tied 8th inning before giving up the game-winning 2-run shot to Alfonso Soriano.

- The Jays took the lead in the 2nd on the strength of a Munenori Kawasaki single that brought in Anthony Gose.

- Josh Thole (1) hit a solo shot to lead off the 4th, tying the game at 2.

- Adam Warren worked just over 3 innings, surrendering a few nicks and cuts before David Huff through 5 innings of 1 hit baseball, scattering 4 walks. Mariano close the game out for his 37th save. Rivera recorded a -0.97 FIP in the game.

- In the 1st inning Ichiro! hit a single to left, his 4,000th professional hit when you combine his time in Japan and MLB. There was a nice cap doffing and some applause for the genuinely likeable Ichiro.

- The Jays drew 6 walks and had 6 hits, leaving 10 men on base and hitting 1-f0r-6 w/ RISP.

- Jose Reyes was ejected in the top of the 2nd for arguing balls and strikes and throwing his helmet in the direction of home plate umpire Ted Barrett

- Just… look at the names in that Jays lineup.

- Moises Sierra pinch-hit for Gose in the 8th and was intentionally walked. He ended with the second highest WPA of the game for the Jays.

- DeRosa and Reyes were the only two Jays to not get on base, splitting the honor at the top of the lineup.

- 35 games left.

- The (57-70) Jays look to avoid the sweep at the New Yankee Stadium at 1:05pm EST.

- The 2012 Miami Marlins were also 57-70 through 127 games.

- The projected match-up is J.A. Happ (4.09FIP, 0.7fWAR) vs Andy Pettitte (3.79FIP, 2.1fWAR). God, I hate Andy Pettitte.

Comments (44)

  1. 2014 or bust for AA or am I wrong?

    • Wrong. Dude. You cant win just because you want to. Then there would be 30 World Series winners every year. He assembled a team that 98% of people drooled over.

      Now if we are struggling like this next year I do agree it will be time to sell off pieces and do some level of rebuild.

      • Which is essentially what 2014 or bust means….no?

      • Yeah I think that’s what he means. How often does a GM get to do two rebuilds in the same organization?

        • What I mean? No… I mean what has AA done to tell me he is no good? Despite all that has gone wrong, is there even one really bad contract on this team? Lind and Romero are probably 2 of the worst contracts and they are far from hurting the team. On the other side he has pulled off a number of solid trades, including getting Rasmus and Escobar and Reyes and Lawrie. And as Stoeten covered well this week: it simply is too soon to judge his drafting results.

          So… fine it hasn’t worked out but what (without serious hindsight) is wrong with his methods? What is anybody else going to do so differently?

          Actually one of the biggest knocks on this team (even though it is kind of not true) is that we are bad for pitcher’s health in some way. But we fixed up Cecil with the weighted ball program and then AA went ahead and signed up the guy who developed the program. Not that it means that much – but it indicates AA is taking the health issue seriously. Maybe even doing other things that we won’t hear about until long after the fact.

          • *Sigh*

            I, like almost everyone else, loved AAs moves. I also still think we have a chance to make some changes and contend next year.

            But if we falter again, you absolutely have to blame AA. Of course it’s ‘hindsight’ to say that the players haven’t worked out. That’s the ONLY way you can know for sure. But a GM has to decide who to go get. So he is responsible for projecting the future.

            That’s (one of) the reasons it’s a hard goddamn job.

            If we fail again next year, I won’t have any hard feelings against AA. At least he went big and didn’t settle for middle of the pack. But if this team is a bust again next year, how could you possibly let him rebuild?

            I don’t care if you like his “methods.” Eventually you have to get results. That’s life.

          • “…But we fixed up Cecil with the weighted ball program and then AA went ahead and signed up the guy who developed the program. Not that it means that much – but it indicates AA is taking the health issue seriously….”

            I think it’s going to mean a lot in spite of what people may think. The programme builds up the muscles around the ones normally associated with pitching and it will save injuries. It should be mandatory like the Rays programme.

            But back to the original thought. “2014 or bust for AA”
            It’s not right, but yeah, if there’re no results (like playoffs) next year for AA , that’ll be it for him.

        • Bryan Colangelo got to do 2 rebuilds AND a reload, haha. But yeah, 2014 or bust.

          • There are 2 big fallacies with saying “they must win or AA is a bust and needs to go”.

            1) He doesn’t play and even if he did, you CAN’T win just because you want to. It is a head to head game. The other sides also want to win. You guys keep acting like he is a roofer hired to fix a leak and therefore if it leaks again it is his fault. He is hired to roll dice. And the way he shakes them in his hand so far seems adequate. If the results were even remotely guaranteed no one would ever bother watching.

            2) You assume that all the owners of a team care about is winning. Winning is obviously good for business but there is lots more to it than that. And we have no real insight either way as to how happy the owners are with AA.

            • I like AA and i wouldn’t want to see him go, but I disagree on both your point.

              1. Every GM wants to win, if you keep GM’s for how bad they want to win then no GM would ever get fired. It not about how bad they want to win, its about if the strategy they employ to win works or not. To use you roofer analogy, if the roofer you hired used some type tatic that looks like it will work better and be cheaper, faster, and you agree and everyone else in the industry agrees that it should work, but in the end you still have a leaky roof, you would want your money back,. no?

              2. Winning is a huge thing for every team, winning means more revenue, period.

    • You may be correct. However, I don’t think it’s thr correct decision. I’m not going to drink the sweat from AA’s nuts but I think his process was far, far better than the results. He did a good job rebuilding the farm system while locking up the talent they had to reasonable deals (for the most part). Of course there were missteps along the way but, overall, I don’t think the acclaim he was getting was misplaced.

      If the Jays fail hard in 2014 too, I think it may be the correct time to strip down the team and rebuild. There are a lot of assets on the team that could be convereted into young talent and prospects and there is still plenty of talent in the low levels of the farm with ETA of 2015-2016ish.

      It may be naive to think the industry works that way but, if he fails, I’d like it if he could get another shot. I guess Gillick started with less but it took him 8 years to get a division title. Maybe AA can be afforded a similar length of rope.

      • JPR got 7 so AA will at least get 7 probably????

        • It should work that way:especially considering it was JPR they gave it to, but it won’t. Most fans may get the concept of building the farm system, but they dont get how much actual time it takes.

    • If 2014 is a bust, or going backwards, or whatever, then yes AA starts to feel heat. I’m not sure he’d be fired right away though. I think he has 3 years to make the playoffs, just like Beeston said. Besides, Beeston hand-picked this guy to be his next Pat Gillick, I don’t think he’s trying to fire him. AA gets a ton of rope from Beeston on that alone, unless this ship really springs a leak.

      And to the guy who asked how many rebuilding jobs does a guy get…just remember, this is the team that gave Ricciardi 9 years and two rebuilding jobs. We can argue all day about whether he deserved that second rebuilding chance (no) but they gave it to him, and Beeston held on to JP when he first took over from Godfrey. To me that means AA gets time.

  2. It’s going to be hilarious when the Jays win the exact same amount of games as the 2012 Marlins. Although asking them to win 12 more games this season is probably asking a lot

  3. How can anybody honestly think that the “core” of this team is ready to compete in 2014?
    So many holes and it looks more and more like the players on this team aren’t mentally up to it.

    • @MK

      I was about to reply to you that the core of this team is ready to compete, until I realized that after the 2012 season we had questions at LF, 2nd, 3rd (of whether Lawrie would perform), C, and the starting rotation. As we approach the end of 2013 and look ahead to 2014 we have question marks remaining at virtually all of those places! F@ck!

    • It’s way closer than you think. Compare this team to the 92-93 teams. We are better at many positions. We are missing consistency from the rotation. And obviously we need a 2B and could benefit from a better catcher. None of these are hard to handle if AA gets a little more money and works some of his dealings.

    • Just like the 2012 Red Sox?

      • I would say Boston’s core was significantly better than the Blue Jays is this year. Not to mention they even got rid of their best player in Adrian Gonzalez. Seriously though – Pedroia, Ellsbury, Ortiz, even throw Nava and Salty in there, and it’s not like Buchholz and Doubront were scrubs last year either.

    • I don’t know if I give much weight to the idea that the team isn’t mentally ready (although I do think the org. has problems developing baseball players, not athletes), but yeah, the “core” is a bit shaky. Optimistically, we have playoff caliber players at 1B (EE), SS, 3B, RF, and CF (I don’t think Rasmus will ever be the star we hoped for, but I’m ok with a .250 hitter with power who plays a great CF), although SS, 3B, and RF have been a bit fragile to date and we have no depth what-so-ever. We are at or below replacement at C, 2B, and LF, and DH is either a middling, but acceptable platoon or we open a hole at 1B by putting EE there. The biggest issue with the position players is the aforementioned lack of depth. Rajai, if resigned, is a good 4th outfielder but really shouldn’t be starting everyday. There are no good backup infielders on the roster (or in the system) and it’s difficult to believe Reyes or Lawrie can stay healthy a whole season.

      Pitching is a whole other story. In Dickey and Buerhle, we have 2 legit No. 3 starters (I don’t think Dickey’s had a bad season, if we accept him for what he is, a back-end-rotation innings eater who might surprise you once and awhile). Everybody else is a crap-shoot. I have no faith that Morrow will ever be healthy, Romero will ever learn to pitch again, or the other bodies are capable of being anything more then back-end guys (and I don’t think guys like Nolin/Stroman, etc. should be rushed. I’d rather not break them) Filling 3 rotation sports with free agents or trades is almost impossible. The bullpen is OK, but the lack of guys who are capable of throwing more then an inning or two really limits its usefulness.

      Barring something shocking, I’m hard pressed to see this team play better then .500 ball in 2014. I’ve lost faith in AA’s abilities and really don’t see why he should stay, although if some of the so-called prospects actually develop, I might change my mind. So far, all he’s really shown is a habit of signing/drafting the guys who look good in a uniform, but can’t actually play baseball.

  4. So many armchair GMs on this site.

    • This is a forum where we are talking about a baseball team…. Of course there are going to be armchair GMs…

      • It’s a bit tiresome. The term is meant to be a put down, but there are an equal amount of people on here who use it in a derogatory sense and then proceed to espouse their own opinion as if it were cast in stone and the only logical alternative. Moreover there are only 30 GMs in MLB and I’m sure all of them at some time or other do work in the comfort of their armchairs.

  5. Dur dur hindsight

  6. Tank nation! We are coming for you Beede!

  7. Remember that episode of The Simpsons where they go to New York and everything goes wrong for Homer?

  8. End of the season, Buehrle for Kendrick (maybe minor leaguers thrown in each way). Who says no?

    I could see the good and bad of this deal for both teams. Maybe Dickey instead of Buehrle makes more sense on the Angels end. What say all of you?

    • I prefer Dickey because of the HR issue at Skydome. He should be better in Anaheim and his contract is very attractive for them. And straight up. Dickey for Kendrick.

      • Also: What’re the regulations on pit bulls in Anaheim and/or California?

      • Interesting point on Dickey’s contract.

        I always thought it was smart to get him locked up at a cheap rate because it was good for payroll.

        I never thought about it being good for the purpose of an attractive trade chip.

      • Yeah…ok, great trade.
        But how does that help with our pitching woes…which are arguably bigger than a void at second base?

  9. At some point doesn’t the training staff need to be accountable?

    Yes lots of the injuries seem flukey, but pitchers haven’t stayed healthy for a few years now. If nothing else you have to try to fix problems rather than just blaming bad luck.

  10. There are pieces of this team that are working. 1B, 3B, SS, CF and RF are working. The bullpen is working. Dickey, Buhrle, Happ, Rogers, and Redmond have been okay lately.

    2B never worked. It was never going to. Putting Boni, Izturis, and DeRosa in there never gave any of them a chance to get used to the turf and never got them comfortable in the organization.

    JPA behind the plate really never worked. Defensively, he’s about the worst in MLB and who knows how his relationships with the pitchers have worked out for him. And his attack on the press and his withdrawal from Twitter is amateur.

    LF was a gamble on Cabrera, and the trial is still there, because he was never healthy. He will be back next year and Rajai or Gose will be the 4th OF.

    So that leaves the starting pitching in Josh Johnson who likely will not get picked up and Brandon Morrow and his mystery injury. Esmil stepped up for a while, stepped back, and then stepped back up. Redmond did the same, but the team desparately need there #2 and #3 starters back. There is depth returning in the minors with Drabek and Hutchinson and even perhaps Romero.

    But let’s face it, the Jays have officially checked out for the season, with the mystery injuries. Bautista and Rasmus would still be playing if there was a playofff race. Reyes’ frustration came through last night.

    So that leads to 2014. The lesson to the fandom is that nothing is guaranteed.

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