Sept 2nd v Diamondbacks

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.56 -0.058
Goins – 2B 0.54 -0.036
Encarnacion – 1B 0.44 0.037
Lawrie – 3B 0.51 -0.055
Sierra – RF 0.52 0.005 Pitcher pLI WPA
Thole – C 0.58 -0.059 Rogers – SP 1.04 0.345
Pillar – LF 0.69 0.071 Santos – RP 2.86 0.113
Gose – CF 0.67 0.075 Delabar – RP 1.79 0.095
Rogers – P 0.81 -0.044 Loup – RP 0.82 -0.074
Santos – P 0.41 -0.010 Janssen – RP 2.76 0.094
Total 0.57 -0.073 Total 1.36 0.573

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOOT: Esmil Rogers, 34.5%
Griffin: Aaron Loup, -7.4%
Impact At-Bat: Anthony Gose RBI Triple, Top 2, 10.8%
Impact Pitch: Eric Chavez GIDP, Bot 7, 16.0%
Highest Leverage AB: Kevin Pillar RBI Single, Top 2, 1.36
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Chavez GIDP, Bot 7, 3.58
Lineup Contribution: -7.3%
Pitching Contribution: 57.3%
Average Leverage Index: 0.96

Chart explanation

- Esmil Rogers’ line: 6.1ip, 1h, 0er, 1bb, 5k, 83 pitches, 5 swinging strikes, 75 game score, 1.93 FIP.

- Brandon McCarthy’s line: 9.0ip, 5h, 4er, 1hr, 2k, 93 pitches, 4 swinging strikes, 63 game score, 4.37 FIP.

- A one hit effort from Esmil Rogers! Despite the number he wasn’t exactly blowing people away, evidenced by Gibby pulling him after he’d thrown just 83 pitches. Nice to see for a guy that has been up and down and in and out of the rotation for the better part of the summer. If you were wondering what a replacement level pitcher looks like, it looks like Esmil Rogers. (0.1fWAR).

- Brandon McCarthy took a hard-luck loss for the DB’s, throwing a complete game while only getting one run of support. Normally who cares what happens to the other pitcher but it’s hard not to feel for a guy who pitches well when he also happens to be a really decent follow on twitter.

- Sergio Santos came on to pitch the end of the 7th inning for Rogers and stayed in the game to groundout at the plate in the 8th. One of those things that seem silly until you realize the Jays drafted him as a shortstop 11 years ago.

- Steve Delabar worked a  scoreless 8th, Aaron Loup allowed a double, threw a wild pitch, and gave up an RBI single in the 9th. Casey Janssen closed things out by getting America’s First Baseman to ground into a game-ending double play.

- In the 9th, Edwin Encarnacion (35) became the 4th player in Blue Jays history to hit 35HR & 100 RBI in back to back seasons.

- I’m sure I’m late to the party on this, but I’m totally in on Ryan Goins. Yes, he’s “just a guy” and yes “September doesn’t matter” and yes “It’s pretty pathetic to be this desperate to be impressed” but the fact is that while he’s probably nothing crazy special at the plate, he’s capable of taking away an out or two every so often with his glove. After a full season of guys at 2nd that didn’t really hit or field well I’ll take a guy that can at least do one of those things passably. Plus, you know, puns and wordplay.

- Lawrie, Reyes, and the hitters slot all failed to record singles.

- Kevin Pillar opened the scoring in the 2nd with a RBI single to score Moises Sierra. Anthony Gose cashed in Pillar with a triple. Blue Jays.

- Gose’s triple was his 2nd of the season. Thole, DeRosa, Bonifacio, Rasmus, Encarnacion, and Lind all recorded triples this season. Davis and Melky Cabrera have 2. Lawrie has 3. Munenori Kawasaki has 5. Jose Reyes has 0.

- The Jays D turned 4 double plays, including the two biggest impact plays of the entire game to get Chavez in the 7th and Goldschmidt in the 9th.

- 24 Games Left. You’ll miss it.

- The (57-70) Jays look to avoid the sweep at the New Yankee Stadium at 1:05pm EST.

- The projected match-up is Todd Redmond (4.09FIP, 0.7fWAR) vs Andy Pettitte (3.79FIP, 2.1fWAR). God, I hate Andy Pettitte.

Comments (51)

  1. Cut and paste fun!


    kinda hard to make this argument when none of those prospects have even reached the majors or made any impact and Happ’s not even had a full season as a starter

    • People keep making a similar argument to diminish the impact of various deals. Here’s the problem with that logic:

      It doesn’t matter that the prospects didn’t turn out.

      They had value when they were traded. It was their potential that you were trading. So if you trade that away and get nothing in return, sure it’s easy to think “well, at least they didn’t pan out anyways.”

      Instead of thinking of it as a wash, think of the possibility that those same prospects could have been traded for someone of value.

      Basically, they guessed wrong on our prospects. We guessed wrong on Happ.

      But the fact that they guessed wrong doesn’t excuse our bad call. Teams always have interest in prospects. If you’re going to move them, your goal is to get value in return for their potential.

      • I think you’re right, to an extent. AA likely did give up a bit more potential talent than Happ is truly worth. However, it’s important to remember that average to slightly above average prospects with major league potential have significantly less value than average players with proven major league track records.

        Obviously I’m not a scout, and there were several former first rounders given up, but in the end the Jays chose quantity over quality, giving up a number of averageish prospects instead of anything of significant value.

        Griff might be right though, AA hasn’t made many bad deals (possibly this one and maybe the Dickey deal), so the Happ deal may go down as his worst. But I don’t think either team guessed wrong on the talent moving in the Happ deal. It was just an average deal full of relatively average players and prospects.

        • Like JT said, it was an unspectacular trade overall. If Happ turns out to be a 1-2 WAR player, it’s a fine deal.

    • It was a bad trade. Regardless of the circumstances, there really isn’t a way around that reality.

    • Maybe AA is bad at spelling. I mean, think about it…since July 2011 he’s traded Rzepczynski, Wojciechowski and Syndergaard.

    • While it’s still entirely possible that one of the prospects we gave up (Asher W.) may end up being a better MLB pitcher than JA Happ, I have two main problems with Griffin’s argument.

      The first is that a lot of trades, including the Miami deal last offseason, involve teams essentially trading away future value for NPV (net present value). So judging the deal based on future value (way into the future, as none of those prospects have played a single MLB game yet) is incomplete; AA’s objective was upgrading the bullpen (which he did), while getting some starting pitching depth in JA Happ. Recalling that at the time, the Jays starters were falling like flies and that the bullpen was succumbing due to overwork, I think the Jays made an acceptable move, even if 5 prospects was a bit steep a price to play, and even considering that Happ was the Astros’ de facto ace at the time (yes, they were that bad).

      The second problem is that Griffin judged the trade just based on the prospects for Happ, not including Lyon and the players we got rid of. Aside from the fact that we shed some salary with Cordero, Lyon was another arm in the ‘pen, and certainly better than Cordero, who had huge negative value. Also, the Jays had the opportunity to evaluate Lyon and had the option of negotiating a contract with him if they liked what they saw. The value of having that option was probably worth at least one lower-A prospect to Alex, so it can’t be overlooked.

  3. Griff is an idiot.

    • Yea, you know what, he really is. I unfollowed him on Twitter after reading one too many ridiculous hashtags about the whole situation around A-Rod getting hit by Dempster. The guy is just a buffoon, not much better than the Damien Coxes of the world. And his readership, as evidenced by the garbage that comes into his mailbags, is not much better.

    • You may be right, but I think Griffin is right about this one: It was a bad deal.

      You can see what Happ is and it looks like 2 of the young arms sent to Houston will be at least as good. Again, the deal would have been as defensible as the Dickey deal if it was made because they believed they were post-season contenders and needed a starter to stay in the hunt. But if they believed this, you’d think they would have inserted Happ into the rotation.

      • Which two arms? Wojakowski was decent, but the others weren’t well regards at the time.

        • All were well-regarded. Wojo was actually kind of the least-upside given it was already pretty clear what he was going to be – a possible bottom of the rotation starter, likely reliever…exactly what Happ is. Rollins was well-regarded and I think it was Musgrove who had been injured but was still well-regarded.

      • Griff’s point was this was the worst deal based on only a year’s worth of time. That’s a bad argument to make.

        In hindsight, yes, a bad deal. The worst? Can’t say.

        AA made the deal at a point when Rogers likely hadn’t said go all in. He traded mostly unheralded prospects in a prospect rich farm system for a formerly decent reliever and potential middle of the order pitcher who at worst could have been a decent #5 pitcher.

        Most of what Griff says is true but the way he frames is pretty bad, as if AA makes deals all on the same timeline/trajectory

  4. Umm
    I don’t think the Jays are playin the Yanks.
    Game time tonight is 9:40 EST.
    Do I get a prize for noticing the error?

  5. I am not sold on Casey Janssen. Should have sold high on that guy. Is there any discussion, or is he a lock as closer next year?

    • I totally <3 your band. Why do you hate me so much, bro? I even took part in that "sex act" in New Brunswick with you and the boys. Was that all for nothing???

    • He’s recovering from an injury / minor surgery, no? At this point, they should be shutting him down.

    • Longest serving Jay now.

      3rd year in a row with an ERA below 3.

      Trade him and do what? Look for another veteran reliever with a sub 3 ERA to close out games? Or rely on Santos, who I like but who has a poor track record for health?

      • I think that’s what Beane would do.

        • We’re in a 2-3 year window here. If we suck again next year, yes anything can be dealt at the deadline.

          Until then I wouldn’t expect many moves. Especially something like this where you might get a return, but you aren’t getting anything super special.

          I think we’ll sign one studly pitcher (to replace what Johnson should have been) and maybe upgrade one of Catcher or 2B. That’s it. That’s my guess anyway.

  6. You’re right Zubes.. it must be Stockholm syndrome – but I will miss it.

  7. wtf??

    The (57-70) Jays look to avoid the sweep at the New Yankee Stadium at 1:05pm EST.
    - The projected match-up is Todd Redmond (4.09FIP, 0.7fWAR) vs Andy Pettitte (3.79FIP, 2.1fWAR). God, I hate Andy Pettitte.

  8. Kinda confused by the Jays call-ups

    Drabek makes sense

    Romero? Hasn’t pitched great in AAA, wouldnt it be better to get him max play time possible, meaning send him to another minor league level to start a full game? Rather than piggybacking off a bad start in MLB?

    Nickeas? No idea why he is up regardless of Jiminez’s injury unless Thole is hurt and they need a guy who can catch the knuckle for one game

    Perez and Jeffress up for relief of the pen, only Perez should be up longterm, Jeffress is nothing special

    Stroman pretty pissed he wasnt called up. Not sure why Nolin didnt get a 2nd cup of joe

    • “That feeling of being overlooked bothers me like nothing else,” Stroman tweeted Monday night. “I’m hungry! If you’re not starving, I can’t relate.”

      • 40 man

        • Speaking of which, there isn’t much room currently on the 40.

          With 4 spots needed for those already called up a tough choice or two needs to be made.

          After Thad Weber and Mickey Storey are booted off 2 spots still need to be found.

          I guess that two of Jenkins, Nolin, Lincoln, and Wagner gotta go. It would be tough to give up on these guys, wouldn’t it?

          Unless a rare September deal is in the works, early retirement, or out right releases are coming, this could be interesting.

          • PS Happy to see Luis Perez back.

            I really enjoyed his work in 2012.

          • i can’t wait until next September when we’re talking about potential playoff matchups instead of who’s on our 40 man

          • yup didnt make sense to me because of that

            a couple guys on the 40 man can be ditched like Ortiz, JJ, maybe Juan Perez if he needs TJ surgery

            but otherwise they’d need a trade for some of this to make sense

            • How about whichever of Rasmus, Bautista, Cabrera, Izturis isn’t already going on the 60-day DL?

              What’s interesting is what happens after the season’s over. Don’t they have to make room for the 60-day DL guys within the 40-man?

    • Nolin doesn’t make sense to me either. Why put him on the 40 man earlier this season?

      • They were desperate for pitching at the time.

        • Nolin is staying

        • I get that, but if the 40-man is so precious, why didn’t they use someone else? Or, having used put him on, why not give him more than one start? Or, now that he’s on the 40-man and coming off a great season, why not promote again?

          • yea exactly

            i can understand not putting Stroman on the 40 man but Nolin is on it now, no taking that back, why not let him and Drabek piggyback 4.5 innings each as the 5th starter?

          • @ Gman

            The theory is that the Jays probably will need flexibilty in the off season when they make trades and as players come off the DL.By putting Stroman on the 40, he has to stay there and eats up a spot when the shuffling begins.
            Off season flexibilty.

            • Hey Radar I’m totally on board with keeping Stroman off the 40 man. What I don’t get is why not let Nolin come back up.

    • RE “Jeffress is nothing special”

      He’s been really good in Buffalo, especially in his last 10 appearances.

      He’s got a big, big fastball, might as well get a good look at him now, either for this team, as an asset to sell to another team.

      • yea based on performance he deserves to be up, but like you said, 40 man is full, outright a Wagner? Thad Weber? Both of those guys have shown more at MLB level than Jeffress did this year

        i realize Jeffress has an interesting toolset but i dont know why he would get called up right now instead of maybe a week or 2 from now when some other relievers are either hurt of spent

        • I’d put in Jeffress over Weber. They’ll have better depth pieces than Weber next year in Hutch, Drabek, Nolin, Stroman, Redmond.

  9. Why not give Ricky another start. Hell maybe he pitches a CG 1H and he gets his groove back on the winter. Or he could clean up some garbage innings. Probably just a “save face” gesture, Jesus the guy was an all-star and #1 man not long ago…

  10. Jays didn’t draft Santos. In a stranger twist, the DBacks did.

  11. That was a screw-up by Gibby to let Santos bat, for sure. Double-switch! The SportsNet guys were all over it.

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