dailyduce1

Daily? Maybe, actually?

“I will go out on a limb and say they are not taking a serious run at Tanaka judging by talks I have had,” says Richard Griffin in the latest of his always entertaining chats over at the Toronto Star. Bonus points for the question from the reader skewering the “new age approach” of one of the scout-heaviest front offices in the game. Real winner there.

Short season Jays affiliate, the Vancouver Canadians, three-peated last night as Northwest League champions, and Charlie Caskey of the Vancouver Sun was there, and tells you all you need to know about it. And if you’re looking for more, Bluebird Banter‘s got it.

Dave Kaufman tweets that the Jays will play on the Montreal Impact’s turf when they travel to the Big O for their two exhibition games next March.

At Sportsnet, Ben Nicholson-Smith gives an excellent roundup of the essential details on Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka– including an impressive video! Tanaka, while not quite Yu Darvish, seems on course to be the subject of some kind of mania this winter when, if as expected, he is posted by his club, the Rakuten Golden Eagles.

Ben looks into another key off-season concern in a piece from yesterday, as he examines the arbitration process, and the case Colby Rasmus will be making, should he get all the way to arbitration this winter before coming to terms with the Jays on one last contract before reaching free agency.

In the National Post, John Lott raves about Ryan Goins’ defence– and rightly so, especially given some of the (SSS alert) UZR/150 numbers he’s posted so far. Not that we need UZR to tell us Goins has been great. Still can’t hit though. And you definitely can’t carry both him and J.P. Arencibia in 2014. Frankly, you probably can’t carry either– he sure shows us what a good defensive second baseman could mean to this club, though. Now Alex just has to go find one who’ll hit more than none.

Over in the Toronto Sun, Bob Elliott has a piece on Goins up as well, full of all kinds of quotes of praise from teammates, coaches, and the GM.

In the Toronto Star, Brendan Kennedy asks, how good is Edwin Encarnacion?

Gregor Chisholm of BlueJays.com has a lengthy piece on Jeremy Jeffress, who thinks he may have finally turned a corner in his career, thanks to being diagnosed with epilepsy earlier in the year.

Tom Tango has rolled out the balloting for this years edition of his Fans Scouting Report project. Hit it up– but read the main page first!

At Getting Blanked, Drew talks AL MVP, and throws his weight behind legend-in-his-own-time Miguel Cabrera. But- but- but- but how can he be a leader when Twins beat writer La Velle E. Neal III tweets that he’s “heard he complains about balls and strikes more than any player in the league.” NUH LEEDARSHIPZ!!!!

Elsewhere at Getting Blanked, Jack Moore looks at Kendrys Morales and his return from oblivion. If the Jays wanted to drop some cash on a DH, here’s where I’d do it. (In other words, please stop fucking asking about Justin Morneau– he’s the same player as Adam Lind, and probably costs more when you factor in the $2-million buyout you’re paying Lind either way. Just… stop.)

Lastly, elsewhere still at Getting Blanked, Drew continues his thoroughly must-read series with My Approach: Robinson Cano.

Comments (31)

  1. Can you SSS on defense? Does that warning have as much or any weight on defensive metrics as it does on offensive ones?

    • Yes, SSS is a concern and applies to absolutely all statistics. It applies to offense, defense, coin flips, orphan tested gruel, dentist recommended toothbrushes, etc.

      • But what is a true representative sample size? H says 3 years, but how many “samples” are incorporated into that tiem frame?

        We know that a batter will have, on average, just over 3 plate appearances per game. How many “samples” are an honest representation for a 2nd baseman? Don’t you require more samples to get an honest picture of the abilities of a 2nd baseman than a 3rd baseman?

        Just a thought.

        • Yup

        • This is a very good question. It makes me think of a problem with many advanced stats – when used, they are essentially always an “appeal to authority” (albeit an authority using advanced quantitative methods). Because the vast majority of people don’t know how they’re calculated, the argument is always “this player is good because so and so told me”. Not that I am saying much can be done, as advanced stats are just that, “advanced”. But they don’t really effect great discussion in some ways.

    • Even more so with UZR – it can have wide swings even year to year. A lot of people like to take 3 year UZR ratings to get a true picture of someone….

      • I’ve noticed lately that a lot of people like to dump all over any advanced defensive statistics because of their inconsistency, as if a player’s defensive ability is a constant that can’t fluctuate from year to year.

        With Goins, I think the ridiculous defensive numbers probably ARE indicative of what he’s done so far… there’s just no way he’s going to continue doing it.

        • Well, relative consistent is a measure of how good a measure is. Like if Miggy bounced from being a .240 hitter one year to a .340 year the next and back and forth. It’s weird. I am not saying it can’t happen, but you wouldn’t expect such drastic swings. (Not that I actually know how big the swings are.)

          • A statistical measure doesn’t have to be consistent, though. It just has to describe what happened.

            If a player’s OBP over a three year stretch goes .390, .320, .390, people say he had an off year in the middle.

            If a player’s UZR over a three year stretch goes 15, -2, 15, people say UZR must be inaccurate.

            A lot of people seem to have the impression that defensive ability is a constant and isn’t subject to the same massive fluctuations that offensive stats are. I’m probably just basing this on a handful of comments I’ve seen from people who don’t understand it, but I’ve read it enough lately that I’ve noticed it. Oh well.

            • Right. I think we’re just talking about degrees and frequency here. If there are obscene differences from one year to the next, you lose confidence. If everyone bounces around a lot, you lose confidence. I have no idea if this is what is happening or not though.

          • You mean, like Adam Lind?

    • I think Stoeten got it right: SSS alert on his UZR but not on his defense.

      Regarding an upgrade, what’s realistic? Kendrick for Happ and Romero is probably not. Johnson’s basically the only FA option and I’d wager Goins makes up the offensive difference with his glove. If Goins can provide elite defense but only hit .240 he’ll still have positive value. Look up Darwin Barney.

      • But can Goins provide elite defense on a continual basis? That’s far from a sure thing and even if he can provide that D he hit .257 in AAA this year… I like to think that the difference between AAA and a MLB is greater then .017 (difference between the .240 and 257).

        He has a fairly big platoon split so if you can live with Mark Derosa playing second (and also not picking up Adam Lind’s option since Derosa can’t sub for both of them at the same time) then he might be an option for next year. Frankly, if that’s the approach they want to take I’d rather have Kawasaki play that role.

  2. So happy to read that stuff about Jeffress. I’m an epileptic, I know all too well what kinds of shit it can do to a person. No matter what anyone may say, seizures shouldn’t get in the way of living your life as you want it, and it’s great to see Jeffress as yet another example of this. I don’t have seizures often, so I hope he can help motivate people whose epilepsy has a greater effect on them every day (i.e. far worse than me) to not let those fucking seizures stop them.

  3. I really wish that JPA would read that Brendan Kennedy article about Edwin.

  4. how much does Goins have to hit before he sheds the moniker? it’s not like the SSS is his fault. He can drop 70 points and still be valuable at 2nd. Especially if it means striking 2B off the shopping list and allocating our (presumably) limited additional resources to the rotation

    • Exactly this. The Jays need serious help in the rotation, and a catcher. You are looking at 3 to 4 pieces there, with little available to give up in trades without sacrificing the future (or even the Buffalo backups that will be needed).

      Would it be nice to get a better player for 2B? Yes, but unless AA can pull off multiple miracles the options are likely not there.

    • He has not hit very well at any professional level. The SSS argument is therefore especially relevant in this case, as it is extremely unlikely that he came to the majors and just suddenly figured it out.

      I don’t think it would be wise going into next year with a hope and a prayer that Goins is a legit solution at 2B when the odds are +99% that he is not.

      • You have to look into his minor league numbers before saying he’s never hit as a professional. He’s hit at a rate that’s completely acceptable for a middle infielder. It’s OK to wish he had more power or speed to provide a dimension at the plate beyond a hollow average, but that doesn’t mean he’s no good.

      • I wouldn’t say there’s a 99% chance Goins can’t do it next year. His defence alone makes him worth a look. With that defence, I’d be OK if he manages to hit something like .250/.310. If he hits like JPA that’s another story.

        • JP hitting would be acceptable or close to it if he was a good defender. But he and Goins profile totally different. If Goins can develop further, he could be an OK average/contact with like no pop. As we all know too well, JPA is the opposite as a hitter, and not a good defender to compensate.

    • Nor would SSS be the fault of Trout if he came up and sucked at first. Or Lawrie.

      All that ever matters is the future expectancy. Do you expect Goins to long-term perform better than his minor league stats?

  5. Now that Bonifacio has rediscovered his game, I’m curious if that impacts whether the Jays receive a player versus cash coming back the other way?

    Was it dependent on his performance?

    I’m just looking for any sort of glimmer these days.

    • Probably nothing, but this is from a Kennedy article on the day of the trade:

      “Whether the Jays receive a player or cash from the Royals will be announced by mid-September, GM Alex Anthopoulos said.”

    • I don’t think that’s how it works. I think that the Jays already possess a list of players and a dollar amount. They decide at the given date which they want. I’m not 100% sure though, but I think that’s it.

  6. Edwin is fucking amazing. The guy has put together two amazing seasons and had done it all with quiet and admirable professionalism. Reminds me of Delgado in that respect.

    The season was an utter soul crushing disaster but at least there are still glimmering instances of hope. EE being one of them.

    Warm and fuzzy thoughts (five tall boys in) thanks to him.

  7. I do love the Daily Duces. My favourite posts.

  8. So,any objections to offering Rasmus the BJ Upton 5 years @75 mil contract extension if he agrees to play for 6 mil in 2014?

    • Seems like a lot for a player who can’t finish a season healthy/performing well.

      Personally, I’d only extend him this offseason if he took a relative bargain like 5/50.

      Otherwise wait it out.

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