MLBTR: No Q.O. For J.J.

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According to a report from MLB Trade Rumors, since confirmed by John Lott of the National Post, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, and Gregor Chisholm of BlueJays.com, the Jays will not extend a qualifying offer to free agent pitcher Josh Johnson. He’ll hit the open market and they’ll get nothing in return should he choose not to ultimately sign with them anyway.

So… that’s interesting. And not just because the scoop came from our old friend Tim Dierkes-Dierkes-Dierkes.

If you’ve been reading here regularly, you’ll know that– while occasionally wavering slightly– I’ve been pretty firmly on the side of thinking that the club almost had to make this offer, if push came to shove. Obviously you’d like to believe that he could have been had for less– and he still very well might, though the fact that at midnight tonight he’ll be able to negotiate with other clubs makes that far less of a likelihood– but the upside was just too high, the commitment, in terms of years, perfectly short, and the certainty of actually ensuring the club lands one of the more intriguing free agent arms in this year’s class too valuable to just let him walk away for nothing.

Welp. So much for that, eh?

So what does it mean?

It could mean that the club didn’t like what it saw in his medicals.

It could mean that the Jays, who have commitments that last month I approximated to be north of $130-million for 2014, couldn’t justify paying $14-million on top of that to a question mark, given the speculated budgetary ceiling of about $150-million some observers have suggested they’ll be operating under.

It could mean that performances in the Arizona Fall League from Drew Hutchison and Marcus Stroman have convinced the organization that one of those two is ready to move into the rotation for a whole lot less money– freeing up resources to be used elsewhere.

It could mean that Johnson and his agent held out for as high a price as possible from the Jays specifically, knowing that taking less for one year, but being able to choose a more favourable park to pitch in, could end up serving them best in the long run.

It could mean that they have bigger and better and more expensive players– and, ideally, less risky (in terms of health)– to spend their resources on, and that money wasn’t nearly as big an issue as we’ve maybe thought it to be. Though… I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one.

It could mean that, rather than looking to lavish a tonne of fliff on someone, it’s more just about the risk, and they’d rather go scraping the bottom of the barrel– and keeping their bonus pool money– for the Jason Vargases and Bronson Arroyos of the world. (Arroyo, by the way, won’t be extended a qualifying offer by the Reds, either, according to MLBTR.)

And then also we must ask, what does it mean about our assessment of the deal that brought Johnson to the Blue Jays?

There is no doubt that Johnson’s one year Blue Jays tenure– assuming there isn’t a deal still coming after he explores the open market, which seems unlikely given that it’s massively in his interest to pitch in a friendlier environment– was an absolute worst case scenario. An unmitigated disaster. I mean, we all knew the gigantic red flags in terms of health that he came here with, but with him potentially looking at a nine-figure free agent contract, even if he just performed to his 2012 level, the least we expected was to get a draft pick back as free agent compensation that would help the club recoup some of the talent they gave up over the course of the winter. Or maybe that’s not even the least we expected: he could have been awful, then stuck around on a pillow contract for one more kick at the can.

Now not even that??? It would be more dispiriting if they hadn’t been trading for just the one year of him in the first place, or if– as I’ve suggested a couple of times this year, in order to lessen the hurt of the prospect capital given up– either of the two major prospects that went to the Mets in the Dickey deal had been swapped out for one of the guys in this one. But still, not the best thing I’ve ever heard. However, Reyes and Buehrle, even with their backloaded, hefty contracts, are core pieces of what can be a very, very good club, and what the Jays gave up still doesn’t really hurt too badly to have parted with… unless you’re referring to the payroll flexibility.

In fact, I’d be more confident in the suggestion that they could be a very, very good club, if there wasn’t such a concern that the signal being sent by the club by not keeping Johnson was largely a financial one. There’s no such thing as a bad one year deal… unless, I guess, it prevents you from doing the other things you need to do and is fraught with risk. Rogers should be doing better by the club than to make that such a concern, I think, given the value of certainty (as opposed to the inflated open market) and the big upside, but maybe that’s just reality.

Or maybe it isn’t! We’ll just have to wait and see…

Comments (141)

  1. I’m no Dr., but I would have been inclined to offer it up. His medicals must have been pretty bad if they weren’t willing to take a 1 year 14M gamble.

    • The could of gave him a QO he would except comeback and rebuild his value and they get a draft pick if he signs else where next year but that all hinges on him not stinking it up next year

  2. A.A.: GG

    J.J.: QQ

  3. Who knows? All this might mean is that we have some other deal with him in mind….

  4. Hopefully this means AA has confidence in picking up starters elsewhere or that JJ will sign here for less anyway, which I find unlikely.

    • There has been talk of a trade for Anderson.
      A’s picked up his $12.5m option and there is another option for 2015.

      If there’s anything to that talk, not qualifying JJ makes perfect sense.
      There is too much injury risk to go forward with both of them,
      but having one of them under contract would give them one guy with high upside.

      So maybe they get JJ back at a lesser price (that would be good)
      or maybe they trade for Anderson (a reasonable alternative)
      or maybe they go in a different direction altogether. We’ll see.

      • Considering AA’s talk about wanting to really consider health going forward, I can’t see how they can justify going after Brett Anderson.

  5. Probably the right call and they might resign him anyways but JJ will more then likely sign with a American team

    • Going out on a limb here but I agree, if the Jays don’t go after him I think an American team will.

      • hahah, that’s funny. I imagine it is more likely that what ends up being the decisive factor isn’t what country but what kind of pitching environment (park, defense, quality of team, etc.)

        • Ya you keep thinking that buddy. The tax pros have to pay in T.O. Are extreme and part if the reason for over pays by the jays

          • There is little difference in taxes here as compared to many American markets, but good for you for being a dick about something you don’t know much about.

            Also: you think the tax difference is as big a factor as the difference between what he might earn on his next contract depending on the kind of environment he pitches in? Even if the taxes were an issue, they wouldn’t be as big of one.

            • The tax difference can actually be pretty significant. Upwards of 13% depending on jurisdictions

              • Right, in some markets there’s a difference. In many there is not, or it is quite minimal.

            • I could of swore that high taxes was part of the free agent discussion last off season but I could be wrong. Maybe that was compared to some places like Florida

            • Heck. California Taxes are running around 39.5 federal plus 13.5% California Tax, plus the Affordable Healthcare Surcharge Tax is another 2.5%.
              NYC is not much better with it’s municipal tax covering the lower state tax.
              Really, makes T.O more appealing

    • I’m not counting out a Japanese team picking him up,,,,

    • I’d be inclined to agree. He could pitch for the Vancouver Canadians if he really didn’t want to pitch in America, but that may not be in his best interest.

  6. OK. Movin’ on…

  7. This will be fun…

  8. His max ceiling is probably something like his last season with the marlins, which is worth $14mill, but I guess when you count all the stars that have to line up to make that happen again, the jays figured that they were better off looking elsewhere. Or maybe there was just something they really didn’t like in his medicals.

    • Or they are hoping he will sign with them for a lesser amount.

      We shall see.

      • It could happen, but if I were him I’d take less money to pitch somewhere easier than the AL East.

      • From MLBTR:

        “If Toronto doesn’t make a qualifying offer, we’ll probably be looking for a good pitching atmosphere, a good defense behind him and a team with a good chance to win.” – JJ’s agent

        • Damn that’s almost a jab at the Jays.

          • Whaddaya mean ‘almost’. That IS a jab against the Jays! I’m sure he’s pissed that all that nice spade-work he did way back about how JJ would love to stay in TO etc etc went for naught.

            • Actually, I think all of that blah blah about how he’d love to stay in TO to rebuild his value was smoke. The last thing JJ’s agent would want is to have the draft pick compensation tied to his client.

            • No, it isn’t at all. For fuck sakes.

            • I don’t think it’s a shot, but reading it suggests (to me, anyway) that his return to TO is less likely.

          • That isnt a jab, its a blanket statement so his player doesn’t get limited in his options. And it’s quite clear the statement is what EVERY pitcher wants. Good defense, good environment, and a chance to go into the playoffs.

            • And it’s not saying AT ALL that none of those could necessarily be had here (though it goes without saying that the environment can’t).

          • No, it’s a jab at teams with poor defense, a bad piching environment, and a small chance to win… in other words places that pitchers would want to avoid in general. That it matches the Jays circumstances is purely incidential.

  9. Lowball him and offer longer term? I’d be all for it, but probably doesn’t benefit JJ …

  10. MLB Trade Rumors has Fernando Rodney going to a NL team this year. Not seeing his stupid fucking hat and archer schtick in potentially 19 games would be sweet.

  11. Ha ha remember when stoeten said it was a no brainer that the jays would offer him the QO???

  12. Its a bold move. But I can see the pitfalls for extending and not extending.

  13. Money. Maybe $14mil is worth it. But it’s a gamble nonetheless. I believe AA has a budget and spending $14mil here doesn’t allow him to do too many other things that he wants to do to improve his ball club given that he has a ceiling.

    • I think the budget is a huge factor in the decision IMO. With the payroll inflating so much from a couple of salaries I just don’t think there is room for the Jays to gamble. That said, with the Jays bad karma, Johnson will likely end up a Cy Young contender with his new playoff bound team.

  14. I hope they bring him back another way… I really do.

  15. Damn, if I were AA I would definately of made the QO. Bird in the hand/2 in the bush etc etc.

    Free agent pitchers get insane bad money. I can’t think of any higher upside free agents that could be had for $14MM/1 year or close to that per year.

    • I’d have offered too – to quote a wise man… “no such thing as a bad one-year deal”

      Alos, JJ’s peripherals look right on his career norms, I’m expecting a huge bounce-back year from him

  16. Tough call.
    Either it’s a gamble by AA that they can resign him for less (ha! Yeah, right) – or he’s convinced he can get better value elsewhere for less than 14M.

  17. No QO for Arroyo either

  18. Bad thought. JJ signs with Boston and wins 20 games.

  19. I think this is the right call. While JJ could be worth 14M, there look to be better, more reliable options. Having one questionable starter (Morrow) in the rotation is probably all AA wants to go with. I think putting JJ’s money towards someone else is the way to go.

    • With Hutchinson’s strong performance in the AFL,
      maybe they’ve decided to let Hutch and Happ
      compete for the 5th spot in the rotation,
      with Stroman as a fall back option.

      In that scenario, they only need one guy
      and maybe they want that guy to be a one they have for longer term
      or a guy who figures to be more reliable than JJ.

  20. Meanwhile the “Robinson Cano is in T.O” tweets are cracking me up.

  21. I think I would have made the offer, if last season happens again you eat the money and say fuck it because you’ve started to become a big budget team. But if last season doesn’t happen again you’ve given another team a good pitcher who if he pitches anywhere near his capability will be severely underpaid and the extra prospect or whatever you spent to get him in the Miami trade is basically just given away.

  22. JJ doesn’t need great defense behind him…he needs a park where the ball can stay in the park. Look at how average his numbers were on the road in 2012. He came back from his surgery throwing slower and he can’t get righties out anymore. If he doesn’t change his pitching style and get into a pitcher friendly park he’ll be out of the league in 2 years.

  23. idiot stoeten once again thinks he can ban people. I own this site.

    • Pathetic.

      Banned.

      • What is with commenters here and on MLBTR lately? I feel like over the last 3-4 years there has been a slow change in the demographics of the commenters. It used to feel like people were on average 25-30 and now it feels like they are 13-18. ugh.

        • I reap what I sow around here, sometimes. And there are some real ridiculous ones these days, but I think that’s always been the case. This particular troll has been around for YEARS. This blog has somehow become intertwined with his OCD. It must suck really hard to be him, but sometimes I can’t help but take the bait– which I know doesn’t help the poor fucker– instead of quietly just taking his shit out to the curb.

          • Maybe it has always been this bad, but it seems like it has gotten worse. It might have something to do with increased readership here and at MLBTR. Maybe the percentage of curb-worthy commenters is the same, there is just more of them because there are more readers.

      • Would you try to sign McCann for 3 years 45 million. A good catcher makes a great difference.

  24. I guess this only hurts because we couldn’t trade him..at the deadline we were not in the race at all. That being said, I doubt we would have got much in return.

    Not too bothered with him not coming back though.

  25. Two thoughts. First, this doesn’t bode well for Stoeten’s ongoing suggestion that the team has to spend some dough this offseason to hope to compete. If Johnson’s market value is in the 10-12 million dollar range, you have to figure the Jays would have been willing to spend the extra few million to keep him. Giving him up for a $6MM/1Yr deal is easier to stomach, though. We’ll see what he gets from the market.

    Second thought: letting him go is a mistake. If he hadn’t been under the close scrutiny of the Jays this season, Stoeten would be drooling at the opportunity to bring this guy in, and so would we wall. Every stat suggests he’s bound to return to form, and that 2013 was an anomalous season filled with bad luck. Evidence: his BABIP was 54 points above his career mark (.356 vs .302). His HR/FB rate was more than double his career mark (18.5% vs 8.2%). His strand rate was way lower than his career number (63.3% vs. 74.2%). With the exception of his 2007 season, when he pitched 15.2 innings, all three stats are the worst he’s ever posted. And, all three stats are considered beyond his control, and are proxies for the luck of balls finding holes.

    Yes, his FIP and ERA were terrible, but his xFIP (which is just FIP adjusted to a league-average HR/FB rate) show that this was merely because he gave up an inordinate number of home runs. And yes, he failed the naked eye test for most of the year, but let’s not ignore the fact that when he wasn’t giving up home runs, he was striking guys out at a rate that rivals the top pitchers in the league; among pitchers with 80+ innings, Johnson was 13th for K/9, 49th for K/BB, and 39th for K% (out of 165 who qualified).

    In short there’s a lot to look at here and see an opportunity for him to regress back into a dominant pitcher. This is a guy you want pitching for your team next year.

    • Dominant pitcher? I’m not sure that’s his ceiling anymore, but you do bring up several good reasons to expect a rebound. That said, it’s hardly a lock that he does so and then there’s the murky cloud of injury that constantly surrounds him. If he rebounds performance-wise, but only gives you 125 innings, is that worth $14mill?

      • Fair questions. Let’s consider them.

        If he plays to his career norms, he’s been worth 0.0218 WAR/inning. If he piches 125 innings, as you project, that suggests he’ll produce 2.73 WAR. At $7MM/WAR, that makes him worth 19 million. At 5 MM/WAR, that makes him worth 13.65 million.

        But that assumes two things. First, that he will pitch 125 innings. In the last 8 seasons Johnson has pitched 985.2 innings. That averages out to 123.1 innings. Of those eight seasons, he has failed to pitch more than 125 innings exactly 4 times. So 125 innings seems reasonable.

        Second, that he will produce at his career mark, and this is tough to say. He is going into his age 30 season, and seems to suffer through chronic, nagging injuries, even when he is ‘healthy’. You have to wonder whether how many of those seasons had him pitching through pain, thus bringing his average WAR/inning down. So maybe he can’t be as productive, but how much productivity can he lose there?

        Let’s assume he’s 10% worse than his career mark; that some of his poor performance this year was due to diminishing talent (or some intangible about not feeling confident or something, who cares, he’s 10% worse). This means he’ll produce 0.0197 WAR/inning, translating to 2.46 WAR, which is worth $17.2MM (at $7MM/WAR) or $12.28MM (at $5MM/WAR).

        In other words, even if he’s not worth a qualifying offer, he’s worth something close to it. The fact that the Jays wouldn’t just round it up and not have to go shopping, potentially surrendering a 2nd round pick in the process, is distressing news for Jays’ fans. I hope they can find those wins somewhere, if they don’t sign Johnson to a deal at $10 or something….

        • It’s neither distressing nor exciting news, frankly, as we don’t know what the intention was.

          Also, I don’t think it’s reasonable to look at his career numbers this much– or to average them out like that– as he’s been two rather different and distinct pitchers over that time: the guy who threw 97 and the guy who now throws 94.

        • That’s pretty good reasoning. I definitely agree with valuing him at 10% less than his career norms. I’ve said a couple times already that I think his ceiling is more 2012 than his dominant earlier self, and even that season, which was 3.5 WAR for 190 innings or so, is probably not realistic given the change in parks and leagues, which is going to lead to more HR’s. And obviously as we’ve discussed already 190 innings from johnson is pretty much a pipe dream, even if he can get back to 2012 type performance. I dunno, I wouldn’t have been upset had they brought him back, but I’d feel better about a guy like ubaldo or even arroyo or feldman giving us better value next year. Obviously the price on those guys is higher to varying degrees though, and not giving johnson a QO may mean that money is tight, though I’m not convinced of that.

          • But the point is that he doesn’t need to get to 3.5 WAR (and therefore doesn’t need to get to 190 innings pitched – which, by the way isn’t as impossible as you make it seem) for him to be worth a $14.1MM contract. Some projections for this offseason have the market set at $9 MM/WAR, thanks largely to the new TV deal. This would mean he’d only need to produce 1.566 WAR. Over 125 innings pitched, this means being considerably better than he was last year, but only being 57% of the pitcher he has been over his career. That’s a hefty discount on his career numbers (even if it is quite a bit better than his 2013 numbers), and one that definitely seems achievable.

            If you work off of a lower valuation for a WAR, let’s say $6MM/WAR, he’d have to produce 2.35 WAR, which would require him to be WAY better than he was in 2013, but he’d have to be 86% of his career value by WAR/inning. While this is more of a stretch, to be sure, he could certainly achieve this.

            And Stoeten, while I agree, losing velocity is bound to damage his ability to be the dominant pitcher he was when he was younger, how do you explain strikeout data that is consistent with his career years? His K% is down somewhat, but his K/9 and K/BB are at or above his best seasons.

    • What if they land Tanaka or Garza instead?

      And leave that 5th spot for Happ/Hutch/Stroman/Drabek etc to fight over.

    • And you’re assuming that whatever voodoo was causing his utter inability to be even marginally adequate pitching out of the stretch will be cured by what, exactly? Shit, don’t even worry about a cure, just a reason would be nice.

      • Possible the elbow issue hampered him more from the stretch?

      • Well generally when you talk about those luck numbers telling a story, the implication is that hard-hit balls weren’t smacked right at your shortstop, that an inordinate number of bloops drop into the shallow outfield, and that deep fly balls get just enough carry to go beyond the wall. I’m not saying that’s ALL the explanation for him shitting the bed this year, but I’m saying that these number provide some statistical support to the idea that he was not as bad this season as he looked, nor as bad as some of his first-glance numbers seem to suggest.

        In truth, he may be done as a pitcher. But what I am suggesting is that his strikeout numbers still look good, and if you can put any weight into the idea that maybe he got some lousy luck and some fly balls went a little further than averages would suggest, you can believe that he won’t be nearly as bad next year as he was this year.

        Because of this, getting to a performance that warrants a $14.1 million dollar contract does not seem very far-fetched. Someone will roll the dice on this guy, and there is plenty of justification to believe he’ll be worth it.

  26. So if AA can’t spend this offseason they should look to rebuild right
    I

    • No.

    • I have a feeling there is no dough, reigh, me, and you will end up seeing Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, Burele, and maybe even Lawrie being moved, I have a feeling, that AA has been told by Rogers to cut payroll, and capitalize with some young talent ready for the big leagues in return.

      That’s what I think is going to happen, a lot of people will be surprised, but happy when they see the returns on the mentioned players.

  27. Perhaps AA has changed his tune of avoiding the “upside” risk guys and realizes that sometimes average will be adequate when you have enough above-average guys that can carry the day – (Read: Red Sox, Boston)

    • i think you may be on to something

    • The theory that it’s more important to not have weaknesses than it is to have large discrepancies between your best and worst everyday players isn’t new.

  28. In the end i think it just came down to the price not worth the risk. I would never discount rogers being cheap but i cant blame them in this case.

    • I agree. I don’t things are as dark or depressing as some people seem to be thinking. JJ put up a terrible year and is dealing with some injury issues. The team has seen his medicals. They probably just decided the cost didn’t match their analysis of the risk. Hopefully they have some ideas about how to better use that money.

  29. Bring back Burnett with JJ’s money?

    But seriously, any thoughts on free agents like Nolasco, Capuano, Feldman? As someone who mostly follows the Jays, Ì’m not that familliar with these guys, but their stats seem to say “decent mid-to-back-end of the rotation options” and the price tags seem probably within reach.

    • I don’t hate the idea of Feldman as much as I probably should. Arroyo and Vargas will give you back-end starts galore. Sadly, I’m finding myself getting more and more excited about seeing what Hutchison and Stroman can potentially do at the big league level.

      • Agree. Assuming they can produce more WAR than izturis they’re better off using the $20 mil on a C and 2B

        • …except it’s $14 million, and they’re still stuck with Izturis’ contract.

      • It’s probably because we are one year removed from having any intriguing Major league ready pitching prospects as depth. And while it’s unrealistic to assume Stroman and Hutchison will turn into instant #3 starter, they might serve as good, cheap back end starters. As opposed to spending god know how much on arroyo to be our back end rotation starter.

        • I was excited about seeing those two as depth pieces so we don’t have to see Ramon Ortiz and Chad Jenkins get starts next year.

          • At least one of them will be, plus Drabek, Rogers, Redmond, Happ, Romero, etc.– barring further moves, that is.

            • Got all kinds of time for Redmond. No one expected anything from him and all he did was give them decent innings. Also think Rogers deserves a chance after all the IPs he threw last year.

  30. I don’t think this is a bad move. I think this year is unusual in that there are actually a large number of FAs who are big risks but with big upside who were once aces like JJ:
    Colon, haren, Tim Hudson, ubaldo, Kazmir, johan santana, halladay. There may be others I’m forgetting and they can all likely be bad on 1-2 yr relatively cheap or incentive-laden deals. I’d be as happy with most of these guys as I would with JJ so still many options out there

  31. This just seems stupid.

    I cant honestly believe the Jays would not QO him….WTF!?!?!?!

    • Seriously?

      • Yes, seriously.

        Its only fucking money.

        You gave up all those prospects for a deal supposedly centred around him, barely a year ago. AA coveted him for quite some time.

        We (as in the Toronto Blue Jays) have a seemingly difficult time getting FA’s to come up here.

        So why gut more prospects for a different SP?

        All this cots is money.

        Dumb that they didnt do it. Dumb

        • Read the post. There are several reasons why it may have been done that aren’t dumb. So going ahead and assuming it MUST be dumb is kinda… well… dumb.

  32. Yeah… I think it’ll really piss of Jays fans if he signs elsewhere for anywhere close to $14.1 million. If the Jays think they can get him for $10-12, and it’s that extra $2-4 that’s stopping them, it seems pretty ridiculous to think about given Rogers’ largess.

  33. I wonder if JJ’s camp has any sense of owing a bit to the Jays for shitting the bed in 2013. If the Jays are matching dollars with another team, does the fact that they paid him $14MM and prospects for a horrible season count for anything? Perhaps AA said look, we’ll let you test the market, just give us a chance to match any offers you get, and AA is thinking that he’ll be able to pay him $8-12MM + incentives?

    • I know they said that at one point, but there’s no reason why they should. Maybe they’ll surprise me, but it’s in their interest, now that he’s on the open market, to get him into a situation where he can pitch himself to a huge 2015 contract. That isn’t here. And, frankly, teams will look out for their best financial interests in a second, rather than doing anything out of loyalty or this kind of stuff, and nobody ever has a problem with it, so I don’t think it’s fair to expect players to act against their own interests in that sort of a way.

      • I agree. We need to stop this line of thinking right here: Josh Johnson is gone. There is no incentive for him to now sign with the Blue Jays. He can get better money and environment elsewhere. I think contenders will be all over him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wound up an A, Angel, Indian, Yankee, or Red.

        • While he might become an A, I highly doubt he will beome a Red or yankee. Those two parks are such big hitter parks it’s not even funny.

      • I know he won’t take any discount for the Jays, but if the money is the same, maybe he stays?

        JJ was way worse outside of Rogers center, so it wasn’t just the stadium that hurt him. (although seemed like he had worse luck on the road)

        • I’d be surprised. Not in his interest, if he has offers from a place where he has a better chance for success and, therefore, a bigger payday on his next contract.

          • Minnesota seems like a logical spot. They can afford to pay him a reasonable salary on a one-year deal, their home park is pitcher-friendly, and if he can re-establish his value, there’s a very good chance they would at least try to trade him mid-season, which protects him from potentially being linked to draft pick compensation next off-season.

  34. Well he was real, real bad here. Can’t say this is a surprise.

    You can call me Capt. Obvious, but I think I will promote myself to Admiral instead.

  35. Can’t blame them for not giving $14M up to a guy who can’t be trusted to actually stay on the field in 2014.

  36. Wouldnt extending a QO still give the Jays the opportunity to deal him for something better if it is out there? AA has to believe that $14M is above market for every buyer…or that the medical reports will scare away a competitive bidding process for the guy. I don’t love AA’s judgement, but I do think he understands the game theory here.

  37. A bit late to the party but there were some comments re. TAXATION .. if you want the ultimate explanation from the ultimate expert here are 2 links ..

    Stoets – here’s your man!

    http://www.crowehorwath.net/SOBERMAN/insights/insights-assets/Hitting_dingers,_but_not_getting_dinged__A_look_at_taxation_of_professional_baseball_players_in_Canada.aspx

    if you can’t read ..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Sx80P5cxXI

  38. he’ll go somewhere else and be great. possibly a rival. very frustrating.

  39. I’m assuming that this “scared of the medicals” theory here means everyone thinks it’s possible that something physical changed drastically in his last 100 innings pitched. Because you all realize that the Jays would have been very well versed in his medicals and deemed them perfectly acceptable when they traded for him before the season started right?

    For my part, I have no idea if something that drastic did or didn’t happen this year, but I think the probability is much lower on the list than the other possibilities of why this happened.

  40. Bottom line is that $14 mil needs to be spent well elsewhere and if it can for a better part or parts than JJ (who is still a HUGE risk) than it’s clearly the right move.

    • Except there’s huge risk in assuming you’ll get someone you actually want at the price you want on the open market.

      • Of course; I’m just hoping that with 14 mil in the bank, offering a garza, etc. 15 or 16 over 3 or 4 years will be a better investment than JJ at 14 for 1 year.

        • And of course assuming one of those types accepts…who knows but JJ at 14 is just such a huge risk when the rest of the rotation is full of ???

          • @Forzanapoli.

            I agree. What were percentage chances that Josh Johnson would accept the $14 million for 1 year?

            Wouldn’t he prefer to return to the NL?

  41. He’ll sign with the Red Sox and win a cy young on the Red Sox back to back champs, because fuck you that’s why.

  42. I wonder if the Jays aren’t hoping to buy low on someone who was tendered a qualifying offer. I don’t know much about the upcoming draft except that it’s supposed to be deep (or at least deeper than this year’s), which could mean that teams will be really hesitant to give up their first-round pick to sign someone like Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, while the Jays could be a little bit more aggressive with one of those guys by having their first-round pick protected.

  43. hard to put a positive spin on this one. this is not a good sign for the Jays this year. Rogers is cheaping out again.

    • If only there were more chances for them to throw money and/or trade for players that can make them better in the next six months…

    • It’s a little early in the off season to assume that Rogers is cheaping out. A lot of folks said that for months before the big trade happened.

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