“Cat Party”? Pfft. Welcome to five months ago!

Tomorrow marks the one year anniversary of the Jays’ signing of Maicer Izturis, which kicked off their big off-season, and was greeted a little too favourably in these corners. A reminder that things might be quiet right now– and they sure are– but could heat up any moment.

Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated looks at the off-season plans for each of the AL East teams, and naturally suggests that there’s less reason to be optimistic about the 2014 Jays than we ended up becoming last year, but that’s probably OK. He wonders if the club doesn’t already have one of its needed pitching upgrades in Marcus Stroman.

Baseball Prospectus does a similar thing, looking at the one key move each of the AL East clubs needs to make, and Ben Carsley is somewhat optimistic about the club’s ability to give themselves an easy upgrade by buying a third-tier free agent catcher, like Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzynski, Kurt Suzuki or Dionner Navarro. That works.

I’ve sort of been cold to the idea of the Jays giving up a draft pick for Ubaldo Jimenez, given the appearance of “Bad Ubaldo” during the 2012 season and the first half of this one. But… I don’t know, actually. Yeah, at his worst it’s bad, but he’s only had that one year of less-than-3.2 fWAR over the last six seasons, and the last year in which he didn’t make thirty starts? That would be 2006, when he was playing on a shortened Triple-A schedule, and made 26. The last season in which he made fewer than 25 starts? In 2002 an 18-year-old in the short-season Pioneer League. So, is… uh… is he a way less risky, far more durable Josh Johnson with the same five- or six-win probably-never-coming-back upside? Should the Jays be all over this? Did I hear someone say on the radio the other day that Anthopoulos was trying to get him when he was originally traded from Colorado to Cleveland in 2011? The answer to both those questions might actually be yes, right? At any rate, Grant Brisbee looks at his free agent case at Baseball Nation, and sees him returning to Cleveland by taking the qualifying offer. Alex can do him one better than that, eh? Protected pick and all. Do it!

At Bluebird Banter, writer jessief gives us some food for thought by looking back at last year’s Marlins trade in a dollars-per-WAR vacuum, which ignores way more than enough context to make the supposedly damning conclusion pretty worthless, but it’s worth understanding that side of the equation all the same.

Gideon Turk of Blue Jays Plus sees Detroit’s out-of-favour catcher Alex Avila as a possible upgrade for the Jays, especially with the Tigers needing bullpen help, and the Jays having depth in that area.

At Getting Blanked, Drew pushes back a bit at our concerns earlier this week about the new draft pick compensation system favouring teams like the Yankees and the Red Sox.

FanGraphs takes a look at the free agent players you don’t want your club to sign this winter (Jarrod Saltalamacchia, come on down!), and the best bargains of the crop (Omar Inflated? Sure, fuck it, why not?).

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet passes along word from earlier in the week that the Vancouver Canadians have been named the minor leagues’ top affiliate.

In other awards news, Don Ketchum writes for BlueJays.com about Drew Hutchison, who was the AFL’s Pitcher of the Week for week four.

Hutchison did hit a bump in the road yesterday in AFL action, giving up seven hits and six earned in just two innings, as Jeff Moore of Baseball Prospectus tells us.

Tip of the Tower, FanSided’s Toronto sports blog, says they’re looking for Jays writers– hit ‘em up!

In a piece at Splice Today, Booker Smith wonders if there would be any takers for Ryan Braun, which could help the Brewers replenish a poor farm system, and throws the name Alex Anthopoulos out there as someone who would at least consider it.

In a piece about the lack of power hitters for Yahoo! Sports, Jeff Passan quotes a rival executive on the prospect of a Brandon Phillips trade: “He’s gone.” Hmmm…

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports is hearing that the price tag on Phillips, though, is going to be rather steep. He doesn’t specify what that might mean, but… I don’t know, if you’re giving them so much salary relief, the Reds can’t expect it to beĀ that much, can they?

Back to SB Nation, where Jim Baker brings us old ads! Specifically, ones depicting ballplayers trying to get people to ingest (mostly) awful things! (I say mostly awful because it will be a cold day in hell when you find me shitting on popsicles.)

Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports that ex-Jays scout Tom Hinkle has passed away after a long battle with cancer. RIP.

Podcastery: Drew has a new edition of the Getting Blanked Podcast, in which he speaks to Benny Fresh– aka Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. And it’s double duty for him this week, as he also finds himself on the Blue Jays Plus Podcast. Meanwhile, it’s a new episode of the Quazcast with Jeff Pearlman, who this week talks to the Jays’ own Sal Fasano.

Lastly, MLB.com takes a look at the two key Jays prospects in the Arizona Fall League, Marcus Stroman– who gets some especially high praise from Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis– and Aaron Sanchez, in this video clip:

Comments (134)

  1. What are people’s expectations for the 2014 Jays? I don’t know what to think anymore, after last year, but looking at the current roster I’d say 86 wins is a best case scenario and 77 wins a middle of the road projection. Either way, they won’t be sniffing the postseason.

    I am looking forward to seeing Stroman, and seeing what Hutchison can do in a full season.

    • well since most of the team will be back, the supposed team chemistry should be strong. Using Derosa’s discussion of the turf, him and Reyes will have an extra year experience playing on the turf which should give more range. They have the ability to either trade bautista, keep him in rf, or move him to 3b and lawrie to 2b and gose to rf. allowing for greater defense and range to cover melky. there are several cheap pitching options on the market this year if they want to go question marks with the 5th, chris carpenter, roy halladay. Or they could go with the more likely durable options see ubaldo. but I think for the 4th pitcher you want someone durable to go with dickey and buerhle. while having morrow and a 5th question mark pitcher possible with another year of development of stoman, and hutch and drabek back. I think 2014 they have more range to plug the 6-10 pitchers than last year.

    • Boston got to the playoffs by getting an average (for him) year from Pedroia and a disappointing season from Middlebrooks. Every other hitter including all of the bench guys met or exceeded expectations and projections.

      They had enough depth in the bullpen to sustain injuries to 2 closers. Lester and Bucholz went from awful to terrific while Lackey was very good. Until the trade for Peavy, the 4 and 5 spots were not much.

      Blue Jays could do the same thing if they got full and productive seasons from their starting nine…as long as the C was not JPA , the 2nd baseman could field the ball and either Morrow or the new guy could pitch effectively at the top of the rotation while Hutch or Stroman held his own in the five hole.

      Its a lot to ask, but we just saw it happen in Boston.

    • What a ridiculous pile of horseshit, Mulliniks. Why would you assume that they’re not going to make any moves to fix the current roster?


      • With the roster right know is what I think he means but it’s dumb to think no upgrades will
        Be made

      • Ahh, the ever cordial Stoeten. Of course they will make some moves, but its not like they have enough minor league depth to trade for any impact players, and the FA market is barren.

        • They still have a top 12 farm system so your first comment is bullshit.

          They also have some major league depth so they could trade some bullpen pieces or an everyday player to fill a void.

          Free agent market isn’t rich but has some pieces that could really help this team. People are rightfully down on the jays. But if they can add 2 starters who can give them 200 quality innings, they will be pretty competitive.

          • they do NOT have a top12 farm system… I think you are going by BA’s league top tens… but the jays strength was skewed to the low minors. a top 5 prospect in short season ball, for example, does not have the same value as a top 5 prospect in AA.

            the jays have some young talent and if things break right the next couple years they could have a very, very good system… but as of now they i’d guess most analysts have them in the bottom third.

        • @Rants
          Stoeten’s not exactly known for his tact, but he’s right.To try to predict, at this juncture, is an exercize in futility.
          Rogers,Beeston and the Jays organization as a whole, found out what happens when the country gets excited about the Jays.
          Changes will be made and players will perform differently than last year.
          It’s fun to speculate on individuals but hard to guess on the team as a whole when you don’t know what it’s gonna look like.

        • Doubling down on your dumb comment and then pretending to take the high road when you’re clearly trolling is not going to get you anywhere, Mulliniks. I don’t respond cordially to people being willfully ignorant for the purpose of getting a rise out of people, should I really have to apologize for that?

          • What was I thinking? Its only been 20 years since the Jays made the playoffs, and they were only 11 games out of 4th place in the division….of course they’re going to make the playoffs in 2014. Silly me.

      • I wouldn’t call that a pile of horseshit… sure it leans more on the pessimistic side but it’s not completely out there.

        The Rays got in with 92 wins let’s set that as the benchmark… so where are the Jays going to find the 18 wins they need? Let’s assume we can get two out of a mostly healthy Jose Reyes, ather two is you replace the traveling shitshow that was 2B with a replacement level player, and another win with a replacement level Catcher. On to pitching a Happ that doesn’t take a freak baseball to the head get’s us another win… so that’s six wins improvement after compensating for below replacement level players and what I would label freak injuries.

        So now the question is… are there 12 realistic wins to be found out there with what limitations the Jays have? By realistic I mean 12 wins to be found without having to assume that everyone is healthy for the whole season and has a year that matches or exceeds their career highs?

        • Lawrie, Melky, Morrow, Dickey, all had career worst years. They’ll get some wins just If those guys hit their mean.

          • Agreed Smasher.
            I don’t think the Jays will be starting a LF with a tumor on his spine. Rasmus will be entering his FA year. Reyes should be healthy.Dickey and Buehrle went deeper into games in the 2nd half so the bullpen shouldn’t be as taxed. And so on.
            It ain’t rosy right now but it ain’t dire straits either.

            • O Rants, you terrible fool! How dare you prognosticate about the jays so early! How dare you have a pessimistic view! Hopefully the stern tongue lashing of this blogger has taught you there is only one opinion to be had! Please don’t make the mistake of thinking for yourself again!

          • That’s fair, if we’re prudently assuming no career years then it’s within reason to assume no worst years either… although while down years this wasn’t Dickey’s worst year if you include his pre-mets career nor Melky (his 2010 was worse).

            How many wins could we realistically expect…

            Dickey: Split the difference between Cy Young Dickey and last years Dickey although Cy Young Dickey looks more like the outlier but let’s average Mets + last year Dickey and say he get’s the Jays another win (real win not Pitcher Win)

            Lawrie: Let’s say he provides about as much value as 2012 Lawrie… That’s another win

            Melky: Using the same 4 year average we alloted to Dickey he’ll provide an additional 2.5 Wins (We’ll make no mention of that which will not be said with him).

            Morrow: Hard to make a prediction for Morrow but let’s use the same four year average and say an additional two wins.

            So that’s 6.5 Wins bringing our total to 5.5 out however if we’re going to assume bouncebacks for some we should probably factor in a mild regression for others call it 1.5 accross the board (just a guess… I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that Colby might not be a 4.8W player next season but a 4.3 instead for example) so now we’re 7 wins out without adding anyone above replacement level. Where do we get the 7 Wins?

            • I dont think “wins” work like that, no wonder traditionalists think people that use WAR and win expectancies are retarded. you dont just add up WAR wins from a players totals last year and think thats how it works. Im all for sabrmetrics but this discussion has me shaking my head.

            • WAR is a ranking system,for comparison purposes.It’s not to translate directly into wins for a ballclub.
              Let’s see what team breaks at ST

              • WAR IS supposed to translate into wins for a ballclub… but to do so you have to assume that a team full of replacement level talent is expected to win around 40 odd games.

                so a team with, say, 95 wins would be expected to have a WAR around 50. (hitting and pitching combined)

            • I’m no mathematician but it seems to me, with this logic you could add up the WAR of each individual player that contributed to a team in one season and it would equal the number of wins that team had in that particular season. Doesn’t work that way.

              • that is because replacement level team of zero total WAR would win 40 odd games…. it isn’t exact… there is luck involved and WAR doesn’t capture everything perfectly… but there is a very strong correlation with real wins.

                • Its just that WAR isnt a predictive stat and the people that report WAR as a stat state that in their glossary, its also not meant to be used to add up all the WAR from a team and predict a teams record. Its not what its meant to do. WAR is to compare what one play DID to what another player DID and give you perspective on their contribution to a team at the given time.

                  You dont guesstimate this player will be worth such and such a WAR and add them up for a team record. As is said no wonder people bitch about how WARtards throw around stats they dont know know how to use. Im pro-advanced stats. Im not suggesting we go by RBI and pitchers wins but holy fuck know something about the stats you are arguing.

                  • macho man, I don’t think you are getting it… WAR really is supposed to be representative of real wins (above replacement)… and team WAR is no different.

                    as in, if I replace this 6 WAR player with a zero WAR player for half a season I would expect it to cost me 3 real wins (in a vaxcuum, of course)

              • No it doesn’t because it’s not “wins” it’s “wins above replacement”… it doesn’t assume that a team composed of replacement players will have a record of 0-162. And no it’s obviously not a crystal ball into the future nor an exact science and if you can think of a better way to try and figure out a way to prognosticate how a team (hypothetical or real) is roughly going to do I’d love to hear it… until then I’d rather go by it then by fan gut feelings, or projected hopes/fears.

    • 95 wins, World Series Champs!

    • I don’t think Hutch will be working much in 2014. He had late set backs which forced Jays to start him AFL. He should be in AA/AAA next year and project a return late 2014 (maybe with Sanchez?).

      • He’ll back back in the Majors if there’s room for him. The one year anniversary of his TJ was early August. He’s pretty much pitched since then, and the AFL stint is just to keep building back his innings. I don’t know where you’re getting this from.

  2. Those might be your expectations, but the expectations for the front office and most fans is playoffs. If the Jays don’t make the playoffs next year, heads will roll.

  3. If Rajai Davis is gone, they could do worse than sign Chris Davis to the 2 yr, $ 14m contract that Fangraphs projects.

    He kills lefties and would be a great platoon partner for Lind. He’s got a bit of pop (12 HR in 335 AB last year) a bit of speed (10 steals) and plays well above average defense.

    He’d be good insurance against any physical issues Melky might have and could fill in at all three outfield positions. He’d be a nice pickup.

    • Chris Young?

    • I like chris young at the right price… probably only happens if one of rasmus or gose isn’t on the team next year.

      • Gose has an option. He could start in Buffalo.

        But having Young would certainly open the door for a Rasmus trade.

        Worst case scenario would be a platoon of Young and Gose in CF
        and a platoon of Sierra and Lind at DH.

        Not sure, but I think Gose and Sierra both have options for 2014
        but both are out of options in 2015. Decisions on both guys are looming.

  4. I’ve been on the Ubaldo bandwagon for quite a while, and I do think he makes sense. He’s risky, no doubt, but there isn’t anyone available in free agency or trade – maybe besides Robinson Cano – who doesn’t come with warts. Another Dominican might help some of the good ole clubhouse chemistry, amirite Emilio Bonifacio?

    Just an aside, since he was mentioned in this post: he’s not very good, unless we give him a lot of credit for his catcher defense, but Wilner was on the radio the other day and said that he could see the Jays targeting Kurt Suzuki because he was Ricky Romero’s college catcher.

    • That would literally be the dumbest reason to ever sign a catcher for this team, wouldn’t it? Like, is the suggestion that he’d help Romero? The guy who’s going to be the fourth option at Buffalo or something?

      On his own merit, maybe, but I don’t see why that would have anything to do with it.

      • Don’t shoot the messenger!

      • But yeah, Ricky’s future with this team seems unlikely to be anything more than an accounting item, so I would not be making plans around him.

      • the bar is set so low you could make a case for a lot of these fringy catchers… that said, i’d be pretty surprised if romero is in the organization come spring.

      • Do you even follow Romero on Twitter Stoeten? If not let me fill you in:

        “Dreams do come true with hard work, dedication, and heart. Can’t look back just move forward!!!” #OneDayAtATime

        NUFF SAID!!!


    • Regarding Ubaldo, I thought Grant was a little down on him by the end of his article where he mentioned Ubaldo basically shaved a half run off his ERA by taking on the September line-ups of Royals, Astros, Twins, and CWSx2.

      • That is one of the concerns with Ubaldo.
        It is one thing to be dominant against the White Sox and the Twins;
        quite another to be effective against the Red Sox,
        the about to be revamped Yankees and the O’s.

        But as Bret says, everybody available has some warts.

        Santana has home run issues and that should only be made worse
        by playing the the AL East, where the home park
        and three of the four others are homer friendly ballparks.

        Either of these guys might work out,
        but I won’t be doing any high fives if either is signed.
        Problem is, barring a totally unforeseen trade,
        there is no one out there you can point to
        and say “He’s the guy; get him.”

    • For godsakes Bret. Shut the fuck up.

  5. When do the contracts have to be tendered?

    • Not for a while – it’s usually just before the Winter Meetings, so early December, I think.

      Never understood why that happens ~ a month into the offseason – puts the players that get non-tendered at a decent disadvantage.

    • According to today’s MLBTR post, its Dec. 2

  6. I would like to call bullshit on the si article. Mainly, because outside of the redsox ws there is little to expect of a repeat. Players who were expected to regress (ex Victorino) are now a year older. Also, Jackie Bradley Jr. is not a blue chip prospect. If Ellsbury leaves who is covering CF? For the jays, Blanco a jays free agent? and if Gose is the jays 4th outfielder there is not much that Rajai brings that Gose doesn’t. People who continually eager to shit on Gose need to remember he is only 23. and Davis career in the MLB did not really begin till he was 26.

    • KLAW says J Bradley Jr is a 70 CF’r! he gets on base a tonne and could be a superstar based on that alone .. hows he not a blue chipper?

      • How about go look at some minor . for a 23 year old, 2 months older than Gose, he was not head and shoulders better. Or for that matter, lets look at his MLB stats. In 37 games Jr was a -.03 dwar to Goses 52 games .1 dwar. not head shoulders in that sense. Bradley Jr was a -.6 war to Goses .1. I am not saying JR sucks ,but him being supposedly a much better cf’er when his sb in the minors is 31 in 218 games and 18 cs to goses 250 in 617 games. with 93 cs tells me that gose is better on the base paths. JR had . 280 obp in the 37 sss this year (at 23), to goses .283 in 52. Total bases 32 Gose 60.

        Not saying Bradley sucks, but how is Gose a 4th outfielder at best (as some imply) but J Bradley Jr is a can’t miss prospect?

  7. Ok .. my updated wish list ..

    C – Ruiz
    2B – Infante or Peralta (you think he could play 2nd?) – they say he is a better SS then you would think – he’s a solid hitter and can’t be worse defensively then Boni
    P – Ubaldo
    P – 1 of – Kazmir, Ervin Santana, Kuroda, Nolasco

    Stoets – that would make you happy right?

    Guys I DO NOT WANT (names floated in trades)

    Beckham, Danks, Avila,

    • I like the idea of either Infante or Peralta at 2nd.

      Stay away from Ubaldo. Too risky that he turns back into the bag of shit he was before. I’d rather take a risk on JJ cuz we wouldn’t have to give up a comp pick.

      If there is any chance of getting Kuroda i’d throw all the money at him. We can find replacement level guys at C and 2nd base who are on small salaries through trades. Kuroda would be a perfect addition for the jays (DO IT!)

    • I’m nearly with you

      C Ruiz
      2B Ellis
      P Ubaldo
      P Johnson

  8. MLBTR mentioned yesterday the Rangers would be open to talking about a Kinsler trade. He’s owed like $62 million and change over the next 5 years but if we could include Romero in a deal with other players Texas will benefit from, that might not hurt so much, Something hopefully the front office will look into.

    • Doesn’t Adam Lind hit well in Arlington?

      • Funny, I was thinking the same thing

      • I read something somewhere and also heard on one of the Rangers telecasts that in the last off season they reconfigured the park and eliminated or reduced the jet stream to right field.

        I can’t remember the details but it had something to do with wind tunnel testing
        and moving some portable walls behind the backstop.

        After the changes, left handed power may not play quite so well in Arlington.

    • Why the fuck would they want Romero?

      • I think that was jsut a way to unload some salary, in exchange for the Jays taking on a whole lot MORE salary in Kinslers contract….
        I doubt it was meant that Romero would actually be the piece that inticed the Rangers into taking the deal.

        • If we give them Romero be prepared to offer real prospects. Salary dumps only work if one team is dumping the salary, not trading it for another bloated contract.

        • No way that happens. Romero passed was outrighted twice, and no one wanted him, so unless we give up significant prospects in exchange for the eaten salary, aint gonna happen. It’ll be the same with taking on Kinsler’s contract.

  9. Anyone else think that Sal gets the 1st base gig? based on nothing more than a guess. But maybe they had him up in the majors so long to end the season to see how he was in the ML clubhouse and how interacted with Gibbons. Maybe there was more to his sept call up than just working with JPA.

    • Tim Rains please?

    • I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on the staff eventually– perhaps as a manager in waiting? Just guessing entirely.

      • Based on his interview on the Quazcast the jays will need to keep him with the major league club in the next couple years or he may move on. It was interesting hearing him say he enjoyed his time as the roving catching instructor but would like to contribute more to the club. Seems like a smart guy and would not surprise me to see him managing a club in the bigs sometime soon

  10. Moves will be made to make this team better and it will be silly to think they will stay pat with what they have. I just want these guys ready to play for April.

  11. I finally caved and bought Out of the Park for the first time last night.. Holy shit if I thought I was a fucking baseball nerd before – now I get to second guess every personnel decision that the Jays have made in history. I’d always heard here and there about the game – but if you haven’t tried it and you don’t feel like a loser spending hours upon hours tinkering with your 40 man and 25 man rosters…. give it a whirl.

    I traded for Samardzija and Wellington Castro last night and already I’m pleased with myself for righting the 2013 ship going 17-10 in April. Johnson is already pecking at me to extend for somewhere in the neighborhood of $17-$20M for 7 years. My dickhead owners won’t pony up though.. (this game is spooky).

  12. In my last year of university, I moved into a house next to five girls. One weekend, one of the girls had her boyfriend down and he brought a friend. This friend looked IDENTICAL to Sal Fasano, so naturally, that’s what I called him. Late at night, after most had gone to bed, we heard a loud crash downstairs. When we got downstairs, we had found Sal had fallen down the stairs, put a hole in the wall at the bottom, and peed his pants. One girl proceeded to berate him for his over indulgence and exuberant behaviour that night. I just shook my head, looked him in the eye and said, “oh Sal…”

    That’s my Sal Fasano story and it had painted the image in my mind of the real Sal Fasano as this was around the time Sal was up and down with the Blue Jays and I knew very little about him. After I listened to that podcast with him, my image was righted and I have a new found love for the former scrappy catcher with the handlebar moustache named Sal.

  13. That trade analysis (of the Marlins trade) is too long-winded for me.

    To me, each guy (except one) that we got in that trade was contracted for exactly what they were worth as free agents. Even the lowly Jays could have landed Buehrle at that price, and Reyes. And Buck. And Emilio.

    The exception of course was Johnson. Who maybe at the time was worth Yunel and Alverez.

    So yeah I don’t get trades. Especially with the new CBA. You can’t trade away prospects and then make it up by allocating more money to draft picks. So why not pay the extra year on a Buehrle or a Reyes as free agents and keep your prospects?

    • Well, first of all, Buehrle and Reyes weren’t available last year as free agents, so saying the Jays should have signed them a year earlier is kind of moot when you are trying to upgrade your team in real time.

      Secondly, you don’t get to decide on signing free agents, free agents decide to sign with you. There’s no guarantee that Buehrle and Reyes would have signed as free agents anyway, and discussing it as a certainty is foolhardy.

      Finally, even if you do win a bidding war on a free agent, they get to decide the timetable on when they sign. There is a huge opportunity cost in waiting to see if a free agent will sign with you while other options come off the table as other free agent sign and trades occur, with the risk that you will be left with nothing.

      The trade as it was constructed had many advantages including known ongoing costs and immediate roster certainty without any need for player input or factors, with other drawbacks including prospect costs and loss of future payroll flexibility

      • I’m just saying that we certainly CAN and HAVE signed plenty of big name free agents over the history of this team. Money talks.

        Getting Reyes and Buehrle for 40M a year and acting like that is a steal because it only cost 2 or 3 of our top prospects is silly. For 20M a year we can probably get 98% of MLB players.

  14. I can’t foresee an Anthopolous 2014 winter that doesn’t include one of – Price, Samsardjia, or Joe Kelly.

    I just expect blockbusters now.

    Entertain me….


    • Hopefully

    • Price would be nice ( hey ,I’m a poet and didn’t know it) ( wow, I did it again) but I can’t see Tampa trading Price to a division rival without a ridiculous premium.

    • Oh man, David Price in a Jays uniform would be incredible.

      It’s fun to dream, at least!

    • Price and Cano please.

    • Preach it, Smash

    • There’s no way Price is happening, and there’s no way Joe Kelly should happen (not as good as his numbers), so… kinda limited in your vision there.

      • Any chance to take a jab eh Stotes? u funny little bastard.
        I’m merely trying to make the point that I now expect the unexpected with AA as it’s been 2 straight winters of amazing deals. (dropping Wells contract 11, and pillaging the Marlins in 12)

        And even if Kellys secondary numbers aren’t great he still averages 95 mph and had a pretty nice year overall for a second year guy. He’d have probably been our best pitcher in 13.

        • Any chance to take a jab? No, just pointing out stuff that is misguided. Should I not?

          Lots of guys throw hard. Kelly’s strand rate and HR/FB are not sustainable, and his K% isn’t great for someone who throws that hard. That could change– he gets some swinging strikes on his secondary stuff– but he’s not as impressive as he looks on the surface, or as he was made out to be during the playoffs.

    • No way price is happening. Even if we weren’t in teh same division, we just don’t have the prospects to deal for 2 years of price.

      I don’t like Kelly, his periperals do not match his results. looks like a disaster waiting to happen.

  15. What do you figure is more likely, a trade with texas involving kinsler or a trade with detroit involving Avila? Both would be huge upgrades to what the jays had last year.

    • I don’t get the hard-on people here have for Kinsler. Don’t the Jays have enough declining, wrong side of 30, no longer so great defensively, really expensive guys?

      He’s alright and everything, but there’s this weird obsession that keeps coming up– I guess because people presume Profar and Andrus make him expendable? I don’t know about that. And certainly not for cheap. So… yeah, I don’t get it.

      • I was just going off the jays having obvious holes that need filling and a gm that prefers to trade as opposed to hope he gets the free agent he wants. Those two targets seem attainable and at a position we need.

        • Nah

          People just remember that he was good, so maybe he will be that good again

          it’s like hoping Bautista hits another 54 in a season

      • Totally agree. Jays have to spread costs around – LF, 2B, C, SP. No way Jays invrease payroll ro pay for expensive UFA, no way they can trade for same level of quality because farm is depleted. Prudent for AA to fill all holes and reduce risk with multiple modest positional upgrades.

  16. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/non-tender-candidates.html

    I’d throw some minor league bucks at Gamel, Kottaras and Venters.

    Though Venters will be recovering from injury for a lot of 14, you have to gamble on an arm like that for the years after.

    • Interesting list.

      You know… assuming they get a decent hitter at catcher, I could be talked into a cheap flyer on Darwin Barney. The offense would be awful, though some BABIP bounceback and he’s probably worth > a WAR.

      He’s a very different player than Rajai Davis, but I’d be interested in Jesus Guzman as a lefty-masher off the bench. (Also ignoring an awful 2013, he had destroyed lefties before that.)

  17. That Avila link was fun. Avila’s a significantly better defensive catcher than JP…because he says so. Avila calls a great game…because he catches the best rotation in baseball. No doubt Avila’s a stronger bat than JP, but he’s also one of the few who can give him a run for his money as far as trainwrecks behind the plate.

    Also, yeah, sign me up for taking Braun off their hands.

    • Even with the PEDs and everything, I have to think it would still take a lot to get Braun.

      • Might take one top prospect, or a bunch of high upside low A prospects but shouldnt be much more if you absorb most of the contract.

        I might do it, heck it would open up the opportunity to trade bautista for other holes.

  18. What about another trade with LAA, for Kenrick?

  19. Up early, or didn’t go to bed?

  20. Ink him, minor league or some such…..

    no, no, no, no………. ahhhhh yes.


  21. Sad day for DJF

    No more Knobler goes-a-Knoblin’ for the time being……..


  22. Um, did anyone else notice that McCann was a projected sign at 4 years 59 mil in the FanGraphs piece?

    If this guys projection of the contract is even close……..

    -Consider the protected first pick
    -The reasonable term of the contract
    -Decent price (relative to to production of the position)

    This is not Undreamableā„¢.

  23. I hope St. Louis fans realize what a God they have….


    But our guy is pretty good at twitter

  24. Why doesn’t Dioner Navarro get no love?

  25. I know he’s nothing incredible – but I’m wondering why there hasn’t been more of a buzz around here about Ricky Nolasco as a target this offseason? Again – not implying he should be the #1 target – but he’s a guy who has been incredibly consistent in making starts since he broke into the league and considering some of the other risky options out there he might be a guy who could at least provide a little more stability..

    • I think we’re all still a little aprehensive about any pitcher who has never had success outside the NL. I would predict that the combination of Stroman, Hutcheson & Drabek will give you the same numbers as Nolasco running out their every 5th day.
      So why spend the jingle?

  26. Important question: is the difference between Ubaldo and Johnson worth a draft pick?

    Because if that answer is no, just resign Johnson.

  27. I’m not so sure

  28. avila for a reliever: done deal

  29. Being a pragmatist a healthy well experienced catcher can be acquired without great cost while greatly improving the Jays. AA you’d be well served as a self presentative measure.
    Improving rotation is more difficult. Less if you rule out Morrow and Hutchison for 2014.

    • I don’t think that’s necessarily true at all, and there is zero reason to be ruling those two guys out.

  30. Any thoughts on signing multiple mid-tier SP with high grndball % and 170-190 innings? Feldman, Maholm, ? Jays saved $14M not QO Johnson so 2x $7 would cover more risk of rotation injuries.

    • I don’t know if we need multiple ones, but I do kinda like Feldman. Are those guys going to be better enough than Stroman/Hutchison et al to justify it? I mean, I know some of those guys (ideally more on the Happ/Rogers/Redmond/Drabek side than the Stroman/Hutchison side) will be gone, but surely not all of them.

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