Before it gets too stale, and before a fresh round comes our way– and… y’know… because there isn’t a whole hell of a lot else to do at the moment– let’s catch up on some highlights from Keith Law’s most recent chat with readers over at ESPN.com!
And for good measure, let’s throw in a few items from the week before– even though it was the most recent Thursday chat that really took the direct route in terms of their Jays-related tidbits.
From Thursday, November 15th
James (San Diego)
AFL aside, what does the future hold for Aaron Sanchez?
Ace potential, but I’ve outlined my concerns with his delivery and still think that is a serious obstacle for him and the Jays.
I wrote about Sanchez yesterday, of course, and back on Thursday, and yeah… there are concerns about the short stride coming from more places than just Law. One of the issues, raised in yesterday’s piece, was about how the lack of stride impacted him, specifically, from the stretch. Funny– though certainly not “ha ha” funny– that similar concerns were being discussed yesterday about how Josh Johnson’s season went so badly awry, and that Brandon Morrow has had troubles from the stretch in the past, aaand how in today’s Daily Duce we noted a Gregor Chisholm piece where he suggested the club was re-thinking some of its player development strategy. Issues from the stretch weren’t specifically noted (and obviously Johnson was brand new to the organization this year), but still… interesting. Would be nice to see this, y’know, not be a thing.
Assuming the Jays look to their minor leagues for a 5th starter this year (i’m also assuming they go get a 3/4 guy somehow), where do you place your bet? Stroman? Hutchison? Drabek? other?
Stroman, probably over Hutchison as the latter may have a limited workload as he returns from injury.
This, actually, doesn’t sound as though it’s going to be the case. Last Tuesday, in our GM Meetings After Dark roundup post we noted that Alex Anthopoulos had told reporters that there wouldn’t be restrictions on Hutchison. Shi Davidi, in his post on it, figured that he could push 190 to 200 innings if the club allowed him to exceed his last healthy season’s total by 20 to 25 percent. Stroman, including the AFL, pitched just 123.1 innings this year, which would put him in the 150 range with a similar increase in workload. However, because he was suspended at the start of the year and pitching in extended Sprin Training, maybe the Jays would consider his actual total as being a bit higher.
G to the C (Toronto)
Does an Encarnacion Jannsen for Kinsler Holland trade make sense for both teams?
Not for Toronto.
KLaw notes later in the chat that “these trade ideas *never* work, by the way,” and… uh… yeah. Can we please stop with the fucking Kinsler talk? I know you know his name, but so what? He’s owed $62-million through 2017; he had one superstar year with the bat, and that was back in 2008; his huge WAR 2011 was built on a very good year at the plate, and a crazy amount of defensive value delivered, which he hasn’t come close to delivering since; and his power numbers, his walk rates, and his hitting overall (100 and 105 wRC+ in the last two years respectively) are all headed in the wrong direction. He’s still a good player, of course, but loses so much value if you’re just sticking him in a corner outfield spot, which you may have to– especially if you’re looking for a more shortstop-like second baseman– and is owed a tonne.
Now, I don’t know if I agree with Law here necessarily, because Holland’s deal looks pretty good ($25.3-million guaranteed until the end of 2016, with a couple of options), but… I’d still rather try to keep Edwin and sign a starter. And, more importantly, seriously, enough with the Kinsler hypotheticals.
Max Frutchman (Toronto)
You mentioned in a past chat that the Jays should have taken JP Crawford with their first pick this year. Do you think they can get a comparable talent at 11 in 2014 given the depth of the draft?
I wouldn’t bank on it.
Sorry about that last question, I was in one of my drunken stupors when I wrote it.
As long as you’re getting enough to eat.
From Tuesday, November 5th
Hitters offered less at Josh Johnson’s slider than in the past. Is that a function of his decreased fastball velocity?
I think so, although I also wonder how much of the velocity dip was due to the bone chips in his elbow.
I dunno… Johnson’s velocity this year was pretty much exactly the same as it was in 2012 with the Marlins, and he was pretty effective. Which isn’t to say I don’ think the overall notion is true– I was all for trying to keep Johnson, entirely because I think arm health probably had a lot to do with what went wrong for him this year.
Do you believe Brett Anderson will be a starting pitcher for either OAK or another team next year?
One of these days the Jays are going to pick up an injury risk and actually have him exceed expectations, right? RIGHT???
You seem more confident than a lot of analysts that Ubaldo’s improvement will carry over.
When I can tie it to specific mechanical or health changes, I’m far more confident in forecasting a change in performance to be real. Brandon Belt’s swing change is another good example.
I’m at the stage where I’m going to be disappointed if Ubaldo signs elsewhere. This is probably not good, on a lot of levels. Thing is, Anthopoulos will certainly do something. I mean, I can’t imagine him looking back on the offseason and wishing he’d have just kept Josh Johnson when he had the chance, right? RIGHT???
Ang_rioter (Dominican republic)
Three names that would fit in the Blue Jays uniform.
They’ll all fit. Except maybe Saltalamacchia. They’ll need to reduce the kerning or something.
Navarro certainly fits better, if you ask me. Castro would be even better, though, if you can get him for the right price.
Mayor Rob Ford (Toronto, ON)
Crack smoking is only a 50-game suspension for a first offence, right?
25 for a first offense, I think. But greenies are 50, unless you have a prescription!
I once yelled at Rob Ford as he was walking up the aisle at the Rogers Centre during a game. Of course, that was because of things he believed in completely intentionally, as a matter of choice, rather than whatever flaming nonsense is coming out of his mouth as he tries to deny reality and save his skin in the middle of the escalating train wreck that is his life. Which is to say, I suppose, that I was more into his early stuff, and now he’s gone a little too mainstream for my taste. Next thing you know he’ll be requesting formal attire or costume for council meetings, the pretentious fuck.
How scary is Tanaka with the 160 pitches followed the next day by another 18? Would any damage show up on medicals/physical?
It’s excessive, although not as much as when, say, Rice or TCU or some other college does that to a 19-year-old. Seeing damage probably requires an MRI, and even those aren’t always definitive – plus they often show damage that produces no symptoms.
Plenty of pitchers have gone years with partial tears in their elbows or shoulders without blowing out. Dustin McGowan went something like four years before his torn elbow ligament snapped. I know of guys who have tears in their shoulders and throw in the mid-90s with no pain. We know less than we think, and I’m including myself in there.
I’m getting the sense that there’s not a whole lot of reason for us to be paying too much attention to the whole Tanaka thing at this point anyway, but… there’s that. Hey, and a Dustin McGowan reference!