Last night Alex Anthopoulos said this about what he’s trying to do behind the scenes on the trade market:

From our standpoint it’s a very focussed group, and a very focussed list, and some– I’d say actually a lot of them– are not out there in the media and not on the internet, and they’re harder to acquire, and the likelihood you acquire them is probably not high, but that’s what we’re trying to do.

Well… um… Prince Fielder is a name that wasn’t out there– mostly because, after a season in which he didn’t hit quite as well as Colby Rasmus (even by league- and park-adjusted wRC+), the $24-million per year he’s owed for the next seven seasons, totalling $168-million, made him look pretty unmovable. But move he just did!

Jon Heyman had it first at CBS Sports, telling us that the big first baseman has been moved to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Ian Kinsler. Details are still filtering in, but… it’s a bloickbuster!

In short: Kinsler’s defence has been going south and his last two years at the plate have produced just a 100 and 105 wRC+. However, he’s owed just $62-million for four years plus a buyout. Fielder didn’t have a great year (or playoffs), but might still kill it in Arlington, and is an improvement for Texas that neatly solves their middle infield jam. He’s owed $168-million over seven years, though. The Rangers will get money in the deal ($30-million tweets Jeff Passan), but Detroit should still save enough to extend Max Scherzer and eventually Miguel Cabrera, too. The Tigers can also now move Miguel Cabrera to first, opening a spot for their own top prospect, third baseman Nick Castellanos.

But… OK. What does this mean for the Jays?

Apart from the fact that these are certainly some very large dominoes that have just fallen, I’m not sure a whole lot just yet.

Do we really believe that either of these names– or, more specifically, either of these massive financial commitments– were in play for the Blue Jays? Probably not.

I do, however, think it’s possible that if there was a chance for Rogers to consider taking on more payroll than the $150-million we believe they’d like to, it would be, like last year, in a scenario like this– on a sellable, “name” player who could move the needle in this city more than guys like Ervin Santana or Brian McCann. Even on the open market those free agents may be better value plays, but they certainly would help the club on the field more than off it.

I’m entirely just guessing on that, of course, but frankly, at this point, any opportunity to think– even for a fleeting, pipe-dreaming second– that Rogers may be willing to invest more heavily in the 2014 Jays than we’ve set ourselves up to believe, I’m so going to take.

Thinking about it a bit more realistically I think, as I say, the deal has the possibility to kickstart the market. Any front office looking to land either of these two players, or the reportedly-available Max Scherzer, or one of the Rangers’ remaining middle infielders, can officially start looking elsewhere. The move also would appear to close off a couple of big money landing spots that guys like Mike Napoli or Omar Infante could have been waiting on word from before signing free agent deals.

I’m not sure that it’s necessarily going to immediately cause a torrent of other moves around the league, but it’s a damn fine start. Now let’s do this!

Comments (189)

  1. holy shit… when i saw that this trade was being discussed on mlb trade rumors i thought it was just a heap of bullshit!

  2. You can trade any contract now. So the Jays can sign Cano, right?

    • yeah, that’s actually a great point

    • I know I’m crazy and I know it won’t happen…

      But I keep asking “how many contracts at any one time are truly unmovable?”

      My guess is that the odds you can move a “big” contract are the same odds that you can move any contract. Yeah Arod is unmovable. So is Romero. But Arod could have gotten you a World Series. Romero not so much.

      I know Stoeten… “dumb”.

  3. Huge trade. Texas could be one scary team next year.

    • Yeah but….The reason the Tigers are trading Fielder is because he disappears in the playoffs…every year.

      • That would be an incredibly dumb reason.

        It’s not, though.

        • well it surely didn’t help him that he disappeared in the last 2 playoffs for Detroit. If he had hit like Big Papi would they still be trading him? maybe, to keep Scherzer, but with the way he’s performed, no one will complain about this trade in Detroit, and the main reason is beacuse he didn’t hit in the playoffs

          • The sample size is tiny, so it’s ridiculous that anyone would care.

            • The sample sizes off playoff performances are obviously small, the playoffs themselves are small sample sizes. I guess the playoff MVP award is worth nothing then, cause you know, small sample sizes and such.

              • Exactly. Pat Borders, after all.

                Or, it’s not worth nothing. It says a guy had a great World Series/LCS. There’s nothing wrong with that. There’s nothing predictive about it either though– not for future regular season success, not for future playoff success.

        • Okay. . . I read your articles everyday, or at least every post for years and years.. You Andrew, know as much about the jays as anyone. Now that said, please the next time you use WAR references, think a little. War means nothing to me when you say Rasmus has more value than Fielder. It’s not true, no matter how you look at it, no matter how numbers are crunched and altered. I’d take Fielder (contract aside) over Rasmus in a line up any day. You would too. Rasmus isn’t as good as his war numbers suggest, if the nummbers suggest he’s better than Fielder. Please don’t mess with the heads of your fellow readers. It’s misleading. other than that, thank you for giving me something interesting to read. And no, I’m not shitting on Rasmus, just that comment.

          • Except he was better the fielder in every way. Better overall statline, superior defence, only knock is he didnt stay healthy. But WAR you so despise put that into consideration and hence the higher WAR, though not astronimcally high as it could ahve been if he was healthy.

            Rasmus had a fantastic year. Fielder’s was good, just not good enough. Especially not by his standards.

            • you guys are crazy. Fielder doesn’t get hurt!! He plays every game. Way more value then a great center fielder that only plays 110 games a year.
              That only knock on Rasmus IS A VERY BIG KNOCK. The more he gets hurt the more we get to see the jays depth. . Which personally I don’t care to see.
              30 homers, 100 rbis at the least from Fielder, plus hits for a decent average, and gets on base. Better then any Jays since Delgado. You’d take everything you said back if he was in a jays uniform.

              • I wouldn’t change my mind if he was in a Jay’s uniform cause he would be worse then EE.

                What Rasmus lost in time, he made up for it in defense. And he still had a superior bat.

                What we’re arguing is not that Fielder is a bad player, or that we wouldnt want him period over the next few years over Rasmus. What we’re arguing is that Rasmus was better then Fielder in 2013. Which by almsot all metrics, he was.

                • Ok, Rasmus, even without using dumb war stats because you really don’t need them, had a better season than Fielder .. .If. .. .Fielder played in 118 games. But he didn’t, he played an entire season and made the playoffs.
                  With Fielder in the line-up every day, it doesn’t matter what kind of slump he is in, he scares pitchers. With him protecting others in the lineup they see better pitches to hit. He makes others in the line-up better do to that fact. Protection.
                  Rasmus is a great center fielder but the injuries with him out of the lineup doesnt effect just him, but those who bat around him. Who cares if Anthony Gose is on deck, easy out, christ I’d probably be able to get the out With Rasmus healthy 162 games, I take Rasmus, last season. unless he decided to shit the bed the in the 44 games he’s missed. And the way the Jays season went last year, he’s probably lucky he missed those games.

                  • WAR accounts for defence, so it’s relevant, and yes, Rasmus was better DESPITE playing so many fewer games.

                    Protection isn’t a thing. Scaring pitchers isn’t a thing.

                    • I usually agree with you, but this is one of the biggest fallacies that the majority of people that use advanced statistics believe. If protection wasn’t a thing and scaring pitchers wasn’t a thing, intentional walks wouldn’t be a thing. Protection will stop being a thing when human pitchers get replaced by robots. Until then, yes, the guy standing in the on-deck circle does factor into a pitcher’s mind. If Greinke can suffer from anxiety and Hamilton can be an alcoholic and Votto can suffer from depression, then every single pitcher that stands on a mound, can have a psychological reaction to who is standing in front of him. Not every pitcher can look at the batter’s box and think it’s just another mathematical problem that they have to solve.

                      Until you find an algorithm for athletes’ psychology, you can never say something like “protection isn’t a thing” with any certainty whatsoever.

                  • Can I find stats on how the Jays did with Rasmus in the line-up, and without him in the line-up. I’m not talking about wins and loses, I’m talking about how other batters stats that batted around him hit, compared to others that batted around him in the same spot. Probably near impossible to figure that out but I’d say everyone is way shittier with him out of the line-up. Less runs to drive in.. . But on the positive way less strikeouts. . He would have been top teen last year in a full season.

          • Ummmm try again. All else equal, you’re nuts if you would take 2013 Fielder over 2013 Rasmus

            • i must be nuts then. Don’t like watching back ups.
              also, jays could replace rasmus defense. Good luck replacing a real deal power hitter.

      • Hes a big reason why they make it to the playoffs, kinsler is so overated he will suck in motown!


    • I heard it through the grapevine that you’re off to Motown bean.
      You’ll be standing in the shadows of love, with nowhere to run.
      Ain’t nothin’ like the real thing.

      • Between this + Joe Mauer being relegated to 1st base – it’s all too much. Typical Scorpio female – I do not handle change well…

        Can I really cheer for Detroit? I did a pretty good job of it this past October. But I have been a Texas fan for a really long time.

        Thank you for talking me down, Spuds…

  5. This is making me picture Omar Infante in a Jays uniform and I don’t even know what to think about that.

  6. Infante?

  7. Crap–now we have no shot at Profar or Andrus,(not that either was very likely, but a man can dream). . Fielder certainly looked like an immoveable object, in every sense.

  8. Well that really escalated in a hurry.

  9. Didn’t see that one coming but makes sense that Detroit would try and clear some salary to resign sherzer and Texas offsets fielders massive contract with profar taking over on the infield.

    • I was thinking earlier today if Detroit could move Fielder (or Verlander) then they could re-sign Scherzer. (Mostly ’cause I was thinking about Scherzer). Especially with Prince’s post-season play (if he hit better they might have won the WS. I didn’t think it was likely, but good for them.

  10. Both guys underperformed last year(esp fielder). Fielder is definitely the superior hitter historically but when you factor in kinslers defense and $ saved, its pretty close. Im not sure it impacts the jays all that much, but i hope it does.

    • And it’s at least the second year in a row Fielder has underperformed….what a waste. Glad AA didnt even think about it.

      • Holy shit look at his stats before you say that. .300 batting average and 50 homers are what people expect. He still hit extremely good minus the playoffs. Would have loved to see him in T.O. You would too if you used your mind instead of agreeing with everyone like a sheep.

    • I don’t know if they underperformed so much as performed the way you’d kinda think they’re going to perform at this point. Could be wrong, but not a big fan of either.

    • I think it’s a win-win situation…

  11. You’re not suggesting the jays were looking at Prince are you? or Kinsler?


  13. With Miggy off of 3 I boldly predict that Brett Russell Lawrie ends up with the highest WAR at the hot corner in ’14.

    Apologies to Longo, but on the Chinese Calendar this is the year of the Red Bull.

  14. This just goes to show that you can sign players to terrible contracts and dump them at any time with impunity. There’s always a team willing to take them off your hands, and you get the best year(s). Fielder, Wells, Reyes, Buerhle, Texeira on and on

    • @torontojef


      The new economics of MLB make these deals possible.

      Buerhle could be tradeable. Jose Reyes as well. The Jays need them for 2014 but if they don’t make the playoffs by 2015, jays could rebuild without them.

      • In theory yes, any contract is completely tradeable. But it takes an incredible (and fortunate) circumstance to trade a good but grossly overpaid player (such as Vernon Wells) and not have to fork over most of the bill.

        So in other words, let’s not go give Ubaldo Jiminez 140 million bucks and think we can easily just dump the contract in two years if he doesn’t produce.

    • I keep saying the same thing. Or at least that they are as likely to be unmovable as any normal contract.

      We do have to admit that the 30M Detroit is eating is a fair bit more than the Jays have available for all their shopping this winter. So Detroit did still pay a lot of money for Fielder.

    • There were ‘best years’ of Vernon Wells monster contract?

  15. Ah, the first big move is one player that people didn’t think would move based on salary.

    This affects the Jays only in the fact that a lot of those people (Jays “fans” and otherwise) who pull trade rumors out of their ass and pass them off as potentially legit, now have this validation.

    First, they’re much more likely to post some obnoxious, mind boggling trades. When they suggest something dimwitted and asinine, and called out on the such, the final defense will be “…that may seem outrageous for a return but look what piece of crap player and contract Texas took in in Fielder, so anything’s possible…” etc

  16. What?!?! It means something for the Jays?

    • uh, yeah… Detroit obviously needs a 1B now, and will obviously trade us Verlander and Scherz for A. Lindy… Obvious!

  17. Very nice move for the Tigers.

  18. Poor Mitch Moreland.

  19. Along that same vein, might I suggest a post on “not out there on the Internet guys” that could be possible rotation targets? Might take some outside the box thinking but a Jordan Zimmerman type. He’s a guy you might not think could be had, but he is two years from free agency, they’ve got Strasburg and eventually Harper to sign. Who knows? Might be fun to dream on some names like that.

  20. Your move AA.

  21. Holy shit! Its funny when you shoot milk out of your nose in school, but when its rum it just feels like a….waste?

  22. the best part about this move is never having to see Miggy fucking play third base again.

  23. So is this the most salary that has ever swapped teams in a two-player deal?

  24. Sign Cano … More proof that even the worst contracts are moveable …

    • I don’t think Fielder’s contract was as unmovable as people are making it sound.

      He didn’t play up to his contract, sure. But he earned 7.0 fWAR over the two years he was in Detroit. Using the typical 1 WAR = $5 million calculation, Fielder provided…. $35 million of value in 2 years. Fielder was paid… $46 million. An overpay, but not by some massive amount.

      Now someone’s going to tell me “Fielder’s going to suck more as he gets older; it’s not the front end of a massive contract that sucks.” Fine, but let’s not forget Fielder is 29 years old–it’s not like he was about to fall off a cliff. His contract only pays him through his age 36 season. There’s a reasonable chance Fielder is still modestly productive at 36–maybe less so because of his weight, but still, not unreasonable.

      Now, given the massive influx of money, I think it’s safe to say the WAR = $$$ calculations just changed a bit. It wouldn’t shock me to see 1 WAR = $7 million by the end of the offseason, if not higher. If that becomes true, Prince just out-performed his contract. Obviously, you can’t retrospectively apply new prices to past performance; but that’s a consideration, no? And then consider Detroit kicked in $30 million in cash–is that even necessary given this?

      Impressive, sure, depending on your viewpoint of Prince Fielder’s future value, but it’s not like Dombrowski just moved Vernon Wells.

      • Okay… why did this comment appear up here?

      • Let’s not use that calculation.

        • The Fangraphs article on the trade that I just read suggested $8 million / WAR could be in play after this offseason, so…

          • It’s time that $/WAR becomes non-linear

            • They were talking about this on today’s BP podcast. It’s almost like there are different figures for different teams. Rangers and Yankees can be OK with $10M a win, Reds and Rays are playing more at $4M– and that changes from year to year, too. Hard to make it make sense across the board because each team’s situation is unique. The Jays of three years ago would be valuing a win on the low end, and the Jays now are a bit higher.

              • war is a waste of time, too many variables. Very misleading. Anyone that uses it on a regular basis needs to watch the games and watch how individuals play and not be lazy and go by that dumb stat. OLD SCHOOL baseball stats are the only stats that matter.

                • Right and that’s why the A’s get to the playoffs each year? That’s why the Ray’s have been competitve since 2008? Old School stats? get real.

                  • The A’s have chemistry. The Jays don’t. . . yet.

                    • CHEMISTRY?! Of all reason to choose why the A’s make the playoffs and we don’t, you choose chemistry. You seem like a smart guy and I don’t want to crap on you but that should NOT be the reason.

                      We didnt make it because multple players underperformed and our pitching was absolutely terrible.

                      The A’s make it because of their smart usage of platoons, extremely flexible roster, and decent pitching. Essentially a team with no weaknesses, very much like the beloved Red Sox this year. Except with much a smaller payroll.

                      Chemistry should be an afterthought, if any.

                    • A’s stayed pretty healthy as well. Which creates chemistry. hard to gel when you have to shuffle line-ups every two games.

                    • a healthy Jays team would have made the playoffs. Just like all that was predicted. Shit went downhill as soon as Lawrie got hurt, then Reyes. Takes the steam out of a team as we saw last season. It won’t happen again, I’m sure we can’t get fucked over two years in a row with this team.
                      arencibia sucks by the way . For the love of me yelling at my TV, do not bring him back.

  25. WOW. And my wife wonders why I check DJF and DJF so often !
    Right atta nowhere

  26. This is a great deal for Texas.

  27. Ken Rosenthal says the Tigers will pay $30 million to Texas to take Prince Fielder

    • Yep doesn’t make it quite the salary dump everyone is making it out to be… Fielder is $138M for 7 = 19.7 per – traded for $97M for 4 (assuming 5M buyout is exercised) = 24.25 per

      • The $30 million will be amortized over 7-years, so you can’t simply compare yearly salary.

        • still, looks like Texas got better value out of this with the $30 mill… at $138M over 7 years, Fielder will provide better return looking at cost/WAR ratio, while Kinsler will have a much harder time outperforming $97M/4years… (a rational way of looking at it)…. Det. sucked it up & ate the $30M so they could re-sign Scherzer & hopefully Miggy… If I were DD I would’ve pushed for ~$15M, that seems more fair.

          • Right, Texas came out better but Detroit gets another position covered while not really creating a hole. It’s win-win but definitely more beneficial for Texas.

            • Pretty much no one is saying that– most think Detroit wins– but… obviously who knows how it will all eventually work out. Could be excellent for Texas, too.

  28. Your move, Mr. Anthopolous.

  29. Clearly Cabrera’s body needs to play first. As bad as Fielder was comparable to his contract this is selling low from Detroit’s perspective.

  30. So apparently the Rangers didn’t want Adam Lind

  31. A trade for Bautista might make sense for Detroit now. Better production, wack load of money saved, could even have him play 3rd, if they think Castellanos needs more seasoning.

    • But how does it make sense for the Jays? Because they’re certainly not getting Scherzer.

      • No, not as a one for one trade, but could include others. OR, apparently they have other pitchers, as well- Fister?

        • Why are they breaking up that rotation?

          Also, they need a left-handed bat more, I’d think.

          • Up until a few hours ago, everybody assumed Scherzer was on the market.

            Don’t get me wrong, I much much prefer signing Jimenez and keeping Bautista.

          • You’re right about the left handed bat. This trade makes them very right sided. It also leaves Miggy as the only 25+ HR threat in the lineup. The rest of the guys are more 12-18 HR guys than true power hitters. Maybe they have other irons in the fire? McCann behind the plate? Beltran for LF???

  32. Fielder may just hit 50 HRs in a season again.

  33. I agree with you about Rogers, Stoeten.Thought that way for awhile now.
    Should get interesting, in a lot of ways and on a lot of fronts.
    Wonder how many GM’s will,not neccesarily panic, but feel a need to push the envelope a bit,before they get left behind in the marketplace.?
    Fun times.

  34. It’s a bloickbuster?

  35. I have been wrong about everything in baseball for approximately 20 years and yet I am still a fan. Fuck you all. Nothing makes any sense to me so I am going to TSN for 10 minutes. BYB

  36. I’m pretty confident with all this found money in the game that after this offseason the Jays 10th best payroll will regress back to the middle of the pack. In fact, I’m starting to wonder if that was the plan all along. They’ll have to continue to spend to convince me otherwise.

    • Funny thing about the ‘New found Money’…..dollar for dollar, it ain’t really that differen’t ‘cept for shitty players get paid for longer and then some fucking manager has to suck up a bad signing. The worm will eventually turn.

      Buy some god damn Cubans AA!

  37. Outbid the Cards on Tulo, play Reyes at 2nd. AA said he wants a “shortstop” there.

  38. That’s some crazy shit, didn’t see that coming.
    Hopefully, it gets the trade/ free agent market rolling.

  39. Wow. Great trade for both teams. Not often you see that.
    Opens up space for Profar and Andrus in Texas and fills the power hole.
    Opens up space for Castellanos in Detroit and plugs the 2B hole.

    It’s almost like these organizations know what they’re doing.

  40. Jesus christ. Stop getting our fucking hopes up with these god damn pie in the sky trade scenarios. The Jays aren’t outbidding anybody for fucking Tulowitzki. The Rockies aren’t just going to give him away. We don’t have much prospect depth other than Sanchez and Stroman, and we certainly can’t trade away a major piece because it would just open another hole.

    Plus, as good as he is when he’s actually in the fucking lineup, he’s not actually been in the lineup a whole fucking lot since he got to the bigs. Do you really want to sell the rest of the farm on that shit?

    Face it, unless there’s a major fuck up by another GM where somehow they take our shit with a prospect or something, the Jays aren’t going to be making a blockbuster. They don’t need to. Sign a starter to through 180-200 innings and decent catcher to catch 120 games, and maybe a second baseman. Shore up the bench. Hope to fuck for health.

    • + lots and lots. We don’t need another blockbuster.

      Anyone else think Ford’s recent behaviour could be a result of him juicing? I’ll bet his dodgy trainer pal hooked him up. He surely is acting like he’s roiding. Lack of impulse control, erratic, physically restless, irritable, short attention span, given to aggressive behaviour…

      • He is an addict, thats all.

        His traits are all that of an addict.

        As much as I love his crazy, ridiculous press conferences, there is a part of me that thinks it is sad he is going through such a tough time, so publicly. He is in major denial about his addiction, thats the main thing.

        • As much as I am not a fan of Ford the politician, I can’t help but be worried about him personally…especially how his addiction is affecting his wife and kids.

  41. OK so Tulo hasn’t been THAT injury prone, but you get my drift. Also: We’re not getting him.

  42. It kind of pisses me off that Alex is talking like “we’re trying to get guys who aren’t rumoured to be available, it’s harder to acquire these guys, blah ble fucking blah,” when there are guys on the free agent market that there are right fucking there. Don’t get me wrong, I love a good blockbuster, and AA sure knows how to pull them off, I’m just not so sure that the trade route is the better bet at this point.

    • It isn’t exactly a fucktacular FA off season unless you want to break the bank so what the hell is he supposed to do? Trade the fucking world for a number one and hope some other midland shit works out is what I would be doing. Thank your shit I am not running this show or I would have sold Bautistas childeren for a man named Price by now.

    • OCD troll is back

  43. This is a pretty even trade IMO.

    Both are overpaid. but Fielder has the best probability of being the most serviceable for the near future, you figure. that by the time Kinsler’s deal is done will it coincide with when fielder will be a 24 million buck anvil.

    So Texas wins in the short term for sure, Tigers win in the long run IF they spend the money saved wisely.

  44. Can we atleast stop the Bautista and EE to Texas rumors now?

    Also Choo or Ellsbury would look great at the top of Detroits lineup. Does 85 year old Illitch have anything better to spend his money on? Probably not.

  45. Well done Tigers in my opinion.

  46. GAAAAAAAAAH! It’s only Nov 21st. Everyone needs to stop freaking out about the fact that AA hasn’t made any big moves yet!

    • Hockey fan mentality imo

      • If spring training starts and the don’t have at least 1 new GOOD starting pitcher and a new starting catcher, then I’ll be upset (also I’m hoping for more than that).

        Until then just enjoy the ride folks.

  47. One thing i find a little strange….last year the Jays/AA were involved with EVERYTHING posted on MLBTR…even the ones that made no sense for the Jays. This year, it’s almost completely silent.

    I’m not saying that thinking they are up to something big or anything, or that it’s a good or bad thing…its just a little weird to me.

    Unnerving even.

    • i think it’s been easy in the past to say the Jays were involved because AA would never confirm or deny.
      Now that schtick has gotten stale so the writers have moved on.

    • Not as many information leaks, so people don’t get so hyped like they were last year. If the Jays had a good, or even a decent season last year, all you’d hear is rumors. But since they shit the bed, you won’t hear anything because they cannot afford to hype everyone up only to have a disgusting season like they did last year. A.A’s last year as GM if they don’t win next year.

  48. My gut tells me Dustin Ackley will be the starting 2nd baseman in 2014. My gut is usually wrong, but that’s what it tells me.

    • I could see that. AA loves to buy low. His #s scare the shit out of me though.

      • That was the last few years, to build depth. They have some depth, now after years of scouring the shit pile. Where’s scutaro I want him back.

  49. Great deal for both teams.

    Texas only has 80 million in payroll commitments in 2014 and 2015, then 60 in 2016. They can absorb Fielder’s contract easily and also sign a guy like McCann or someone else.

    Detroit was looking a lot worse for wear, basically paying 200 million in salaries in the next 2 years but w/ Fielder gone they can re-up Scherzer and add some free agent talent without going much higher than the 130 million they’ve hovered around for the last 5 years,

  50. Lot’s of people are talking like Prince will put up bigger digits in Texas. Right centre and Right field between the two parks is pretty much the same (377, 325 Tex to 370, 325 Det) . The big difference is dead centre and Left field (400 Tex, 440 Det CF).

    I guess Prince is going to have to take the ball back up the middle or opposite field to pump his numbers (which I think he’s probably capable of doing). Where can I find HR spray charts?

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