shark2

It’s Saturday, and I don’t particularly want to do this right now, but there seems to be more than enough chatter out there at the moment to justify at least a quick post on… well… this:

There is a lot to like about the Shark, but a lot to be concerned about here, too.

In terms of the player, on one hand, Samardzija has only thrown 200 innings once, has put up less than three wins over the last two years per Baseball Reference, and only has two years left before free agency. On the other hand, those innings have been limited by the fact that he had pitched largely as a reliever from 2008 to 2011. He is well liked by FanGraphs’ FIP-based version of WAR, having been worth nearly six wins over the last two seasons by that metric. He’s a hard thrower with a K% consistently above 20%, and has basically held his average velocity over the past three seasons, despite working exclusively out of the ‘pen in the first of those years, and he’s relatively cheap, with MLBTR projecting him at $4.9-million in arbitration this year.

In terms of cost? It’s slightly terrifying. I wrote last month about some spitballin’ that Cubs fans and writers were doing in this regard, which had them come up with Kyle Drabek and Daniel Norris as the keys guys to build a package around– in which case, giddy up!– but obviously you’d have to think that Chicago would be pressing hard for someone like Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman.

Maybe not. Maybe “package” implies quantity over quality, to an extent. And, I mean, exactly how much bigger would a package have to be than six years of one of those guys for two of the Shark??

I’d like to think that a deal without them can actually be done.

The Cubs no longer have two of the three primary outfielders they used in 2013, having moved Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus. Another outfielder of thiers, Nate Schierholtz, has been drawing trade interest. The remaining Junior Lake, Ryan Sweeney, and Brian Bogusevic can seem to handle centre (though nobody knew that about Lake until he got to the big leagues last year, where he played the position for the first time), but maybe there’s interest in something like several years of Anthony Gose.

However, looking at the Cubs top 10 just released by Baseball America, you’d have to think they’d be very interested in adding pitching to the top end of their list, to go along with C.J. Edwards, who was acquired in the Matt Garza trade.

Would it have to be Sanchez or Stroman, though? One of the ways that the Cubs and Jays might line up is in the fact that Chicago is truly building for the long-term and has a tonne of talent in the low minors. In the BA piece we’re also given a list of the organizations best players at age 25 or younger, and seven of the first eleven names on the list have yet to hit Double-A yet. Some of the Jays’ wealth of talent at those levels would fit very nicely with what the Cubs are doing, and would certainly be easier to part with if you’re the Jays.

But that doesn’t mean that Alex Anthopoulos isn’t in an unenviable spot– or, at the very least, a spot that should make us scared about what he might do. He’s seemingly faced with the need to carefully watch his budget, yet also needing to strengthen his big league roster demonstrably in the here and now. Given the rising likelihood that he may not be here for the long-term if things don’t work out well in 2014, the GM is probably not as worried as us fans about the long-term implications moves he’ll need to pull just to keep his head above water.

I’d like to think he’s more mindful of organizational well-being than the most ominous implications of his situation might suggest, but the more any of that creeps into his cost-benefit analysis, the more likely we are to see a deal we’re not very pleased with. I mean, I like Samardzija quite a lot, frankly, and I think he would certainly be more helpful to the 2014 Blue Jays than either Sanchez or Stroman, but… y’know… we are going to be here to watch the 2016, ’17, and ’18 versions of this club and beyond, even if Alex may not.

Shit, I could take a wait-and-see approach for 2014 with much of the current roster and not even be too upset about it, frankly. I can’t say I expect that will be the course the GM takes, though. Hard decisions are headed our way. Get ready. Maybe even try to get excited for what they mean for next year, even if your gut is screaming at you that they portend doom.

Comments (284)

  1. Yankees sign McCann, Red Sox won World Series and we are going after Samardzija. Gonna be another long year. Faack

    • Ridiculous.

      • What’s ridiculous is giving up young talent for a scrub.

        • Samardzija is no scrub. And you really have no idea of the value of those prospects. It is great to have them but there is such a huge failure rate that they’re invariably over-valued by people like you who just read the praise but don’t look at the odds of them actually succeeding. In other words, dumb comment.

      • Jon’s comment may be more about optics than making a tangible point…but I don’t think it’s at all ridiculous of him to highlight the depressingness of said optics.

    • Since when has anybody said the jays were in the running for McCann?

      There was no way we were giving him 6 / 85.

      • McCann has 85m and one reasons for going to New York.
        The first 85m are dollars.
        The one is the short porch in right field.
        Toronto was never on his radar nor he on theirs.

  2. Interesting thought about the “wait-and-see”. If the Jays are still in it, in July, they can still make a deal then based on what is needed. Pulling a double-down now carries a lot of risk.

  3. I would do a deal anchored by Stroman or Sanchez. The time is now and there are two early picks in the 2014 draft. Sanchez won’t make an impact till 2015 anyway, and he’s not without his warts. I would rather an Osuna, Nolin, or Drabek and a Gose, but Sanchez or Stroman wouldn’t be a dealbreaker for me. Obviously maximize and try to get more back, but it excites me more than it keeps me up at night.

    • Not sanchez. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

      • I wouldn’t care so much to see Stroman in a deal for a proven starter. He’s probably going to end up in the pen. Sanchez should stay unless there’s more to the deal than just Samardzija coming our way.

    • That would just be silly because both Sanchez and Stroman could be at least 2 WAR pitchers next season if pressed into action. I don’t see why Samardzija’s name keeps coming up; He’s not that much of an improvement

      • Hell so could Drabek and Hutchinson. Be 2 WAR pitchers that is.

        I like Samardzjia and think he’s still got some upside. Plus his K rate helps in the homer dome that is the Rogers Centre. But sending Stroman or Sanchez the other way wouldn’t make much sense.

      • I don’t think you guys quite appreciate how difficult it is to accumulate that kind of value.

        Dickey was worth 2 WAR this year, and it took him 34 starts and 224 innings of 4.21 ERA to do it.

        There were less than 75 two-win starters in baseball last year. Dan Straily, Matt Moore, Jon Niese, Kyle Lohse… all less than 2 WAR.

        I mean, I’m hopeful for the Jays prospects too, but let’s be realistic here.

  4. Scarey thought that AA might finish gutting the farm system but if there’s no cash and they need to improve where’s the choice besides like stoets said take a wait and see approach and that’s not likely to happen. Hopefully the want some guys that are farther away from the bigs and we can keep stroman and Sanchez

  5. I would think that Stroman would be involved. You usually dont get a legit youngish not too expensive rotation guy without including something of major value. quantity aint going to do i

  6. ??? What’s ridiculous? The fact that we need a catcher and we have plenty of dough but are somehow considered a small market. Spend, maybe overspend, but at least try to bring a winner back to this city. The fans did their part. It’s only been 20 years. I am just frustrated and want a winner.

    • @Jon

      +1.
      Rogers not giving AA the tools to finish the job would be absurd. Fans showed up last year, ratings were good.

      If AA is forced to go into a rebuild in mid 2014, that will be very depressing.

      Does Rogers expect the casuals to return in 2014 & 2015 if they gut the team by trading Bautista, EE etc???

    • @Jon,

      you have to forgive Andrew on his baseball views. He likes spending his summers writing about mediocre baseball while the rest of the league gets better.

    • You are aware that free agency isn’t a slave auction, right?

      • Very aware. Why does everyone think Rogers is poor?

      • This consensus that players pick their teams based on the market is completely absurd and needs to stop. You know why the Rockies didn’t get McCann? Not becasue he “always dreamed of pinstripes” or because he always wanted to live in the fucking big apple. IT WAS BECAUSE THE ROCKIES WOULD NOT GO TO 6 YEARS 100 MILLION!

        Nothing more. Nothing less. People who think that baseball players will need more to go to a certain place are right, to an extent because baseball players ALWAYS take the most money. In basketball, the salary max means the best players choose teams based on factors other than money. Baseball has no such cap, therefore money is always the primary incentive.

        • Don’t tell that to Beard Wilson

        • Didnt Carlos Beltran turn down more money to not come to Toronto? Your argument is weak Ray.

        • Except that in reality, New York is a way nicer place to live than middle-of-nowhere Colorado. These are grown adults with families and free will. It’s not grocery shopping.

          • Maybe to you it is, but surely you’re not so arrogant to believe you can speak for McCann’s preferences. There are billions of people for whom the prospect of living in NYC would be terrifying and the idea of living in “buttfuck Colorado” – which, by the way, Denver is not and it is actually an amazing city – would actually be very appealing. Don’t pretend you know the players, you have no clue.

            • Yeah, ok crazy angry guy. Did you even read what I wrote? I certainly didn’t say “buttfuck nowhere” (your words) but thanks for the strawman. What I wrote is that the players choose where to sign, and I didn’t “pretend to know” what he or any of them want. That was the point, that they aren’t products on a grocery shelf who will just be picked up by who has the most money in hand.

            • Oh, and yes Denver is in the middle of nowhere, that’s just factually accurate.

  7. Steamer for The Shark for next year looks good, 3.68 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 2.8 WAR.

    I don’t know if I’d do a deal with Stroman or Sanchez in it. Anyone else? Giddy up!

  8. I was told (by no one in the know just word of mouth) that the jays have offered Nolin in a recent deal. Could this be a destination for him?

  9. @stoeten.

    I would be shocked if AA’s job was hanging by a thread that he could be fired at the end of 2014, even if the Jays don’t make the playoffs.

    I would think that as long as Beeston is around , AA stays.

    This rumored Rogers budget cut to the Jays payroll makes no sense after what they approved last year. Why cut off AA after 1 year? He kept payroll low from 2009-2012.

    Based on what has been reported, Stroman & Sanchez should be kept by the Jays since they will be in the Jays rotation when Buehle & Dickey leave

    • “Why cut off AA after 1 year?”

      Rogers has a new CEO as of Jan 1. New guy comes in with new ideas, trying to distinguish themselves from the last guy. He may not see the sports property as being as integral as the current guy did.

      • Don’t forget that it’s a family controlled business. I imagine the CEO is more of a steward for the business than the swashbuckling type you’d see in other companies. The Jays are a core asset of the media division and last year’s ratings and attendance numbers were an obvious lesson for management. They know if they put a good product out there and generate the buzz associated with it then they’ll profit. They also know what will happen if they don’t. They made the mistake of pulling Riccardi’s budget back the year Burnett left instead of continuing to add. I don’t think they’d make the same mistake again so soon.

        • @sandlot

          +1.

          keeping the jays competitive on paper keeps prospective advertisers, season ticket holders etc happy.

          It would be very rare to have a repeat of 2013 where everything went wrong

      • If the new guy thinks that way then Rogers hired the wrong person. For Rogers, the jays aren’t just a sports property. They’re media content, a massive amount of relatively inexpensive content for all of Rogers magazines, websites, radio stations, and television channels.

        Obviously the media portion of Rogers is much smaller than the wireless and cellular portion, but sports media is a rapidly growing segment. It’s hard to imagine that they’d cut funding to the Jays after dumping massive money into purchasing a portion of MLSE.

        • @JT

          +1.

          If the Jays were in a playoff race, Rogers would probably make more money from extra bandwith and data usage and advertising revenue .

          That would more than offset any extra salary paid to players

        • There was an article in the National Post that talked about their magazine content that may lend some insight into how the Kays are perceived. As we have all talked about here, it’s all about content and integrating it across multiple platforms.

      • @allisauce.

        I assume the new CEO can read a financial statement. The market value of the franchise has grown substantially in the last 2 years.

        The Jays are probably 1 or 2 impact players away from fielding an 85-90 win team.

        It would be crazy to deprive AA of the money he needs .

    • Agreed. Every typical T.O sports fan around here seems to forget that he’s been largely a very good G.M. Not everything that doesn’t work is his fault. Stoeten, stop trying to pretend he’s on the hot seat.

  10. I like the idea of this trade for a few reasons. 1) His contract is team friendly 2) He isnt a proven starter and doesnt have great stats already, meaning that besides having great stuff, hasn’t really warranted the cubs asking for either of our top 2 prospects 3) He is a durable upgrade over what the jays have. Going back to my second point, I really think he is not a top tier pitcher (yet) and though since he has only been a starter for a few years, I could easily see the cubs going for a package including any of Nolin/Gose/Norris/Stilson/etc., but not stroman or sanchez

    • I think they’ll take what they can get for him. He’s not a 1 or 2 and could be a decent 3. I think at most 3 of any of the above (and NOT Sanchez or Stroman) should do it.

      • I agree. I think Theo knows that the league started to figure Samardzija out this year and he’s trying to sell high. If the Cubs honestly thought there was something to this guy they would lock him up on a team friendly deal. Even rebuilding teams would view a starting pitcher with 2 years of control left as an integral part of their future plans. I’m sure the window they are targeting isn’t longer than 5 years.

        • He’s on the block because they don’t think they can get an extension done before he hits free agency. I doubt the cubs think that after two years of consistent, durable performance he’s about to fall off a cliff at age 29

          • They don’t think they can get an extension done because they are clearly not willing to offer him enough money to get it done, i.e. they don’t believe he’s worth as much as he thinks he would be on the open market. This tells you something about how they view him. If they were simply in “we’re not sure yet” mode, they would simply ride out another year and then make a decision. The fact they would trade him means they have made up their minds, and they think he’s at the height of his value.

            Remember, this isn’t the Padres or Rays, it’s the Cubs. They have the money to lock up whoever they want. They are under no pressure to move guys before they get too expensive.

        • You can’t just “lock him up on a team friendly deal” if he’s not willing to take one.

  11. Don’t think AA would include Sanchez or Stroman in this deal.

    …right?

  12. the shark hit a dinger last year who would of thunk it

  13. My uneducated guess in Nolin and Gose

  14. gOES+hutch + Cecil for shark gives good value for a number 3 pitcher

  15. Ugh unlike the Dickey trade where I had no problem with them giving up the prospects to get him I wouldn’t be happy with having to include Stroman or Sanchez especially after seeing the success all the other young arms had for other teams last year. I have been a fan of Samardzjia for a while now but he really tailed off badly in the second half last year. I have to wonder if there’s not issues there and the Cubs knowing him best are only too happy to get rid of him. Let’s face it the Jays haven’t had the best luck with Chicago based pitchers in the past lol

    I think Stroman could probably contribute right off the bat with Sanchez helping out after the all-star break.

  16. I Think ItsgoingTGoinoTake Both stroman & Sanchez For TheShark. TheCubbies AreAfterPitching.

  17. If Stroman or Sanchez are involved in a deal for a pitcher other than a proven ace lets just move on please.

  18. Stroman is more valuable to the Jays in 2014 than Sanchez.

  19. You are over rating the Shark, for Stroman or Sanchez . Norris , Osuna + Goes. But than the deal is two players for Shark.
    This guy is Brandon Morrow level , so a quality reliever, plus a B or B+ prospect and maybe or two B prospects.

    • Osuna had TJ this year, and if he hadn’t, just might be better than Stroman and Sanchez, so no on him for multiple reasons.

      Sanchez and Stroman are a non fucking starter for this guy.

    • You have to consider that there is a market for him too, you understand.

  20. Kenny Powers to the Jays! I likey. But not if it costs Sanchez or Stroman. Then Kenny can stay in Shelby, N.C.

  21. I wonder what it would take in prospects to get someone like Jonathan Lucroy from the Brewers. He’s a guy that’s locked up for the next four years with about the friendliest team contract you’d find this side of Jose and Edwin. He’s also a guy that hasn’t been mentioned in the media at all and if you go by what AA says he’d be a perfect trade candidate for a team like the Brewers that’s in flux. The guy can hit and seems to be pretty decent defensively.

  22. Personally I’d rather not deal Gose. Look at the salary landscape in MLB. Speaking of 2015 and beyond we’re going to need a CFer.

    In one sense the emergence of Stroman into a legit SP prospect plus the 2 first rounders next summer in a pitching-heavy draft might make dealing Sanchez easier to swallow but FUCK THAT if it’s a deal for Samardzija.

    You package Drabek and Nolin with a couple of good lower level specs and tell the Cubs to take it or go fuck themselves.

    • Fuck Gose he’s a total douche

    • @razor.

      Wouldn’t AA prefer to sign Colby Rasmus long term?

      Gose has trouble hitting.

      • @oakville

        Yes I do think AA would likes to lock up Rasmus to a team friendly deal. But if Rasmus can replicate his 2013 season he’s in line for a MASSIVE payday. I’m betting $100 million, maybe more.

        He was a top-5 MLB CFer last year according to WAR.

        I just don’t see the Jays affording him, or necessarily wanting to at that cost.

        • @razor.

          Fair points, but I would rather have Colby patrolling CF than Gose.

          The Jays will have a lot of money coming off the books after 2015, so couldn’t they afford Colby?

    • Can we please never use “specs” again. Thanks.

  23. I like samardzija quite a bit, and including Sanchez or stroman wouldn’t be a deal breaker if the deal could be expanded, but then I’m not sure where the fit would be. The Cubs can’t be very motivated to move say Wellington Castillo. Starlin Castro might be more doable given his awful year and declining numbers over the last couple seasons, but he’s still a valuable commodity. Maybe one of their innings eating starters like Edwin Jackson or Travis Wood.

    • His WHIP is awfully high for an NL pitcher.
      Like the K rate but he walks too many.

      • WHIP?

        • It’s rarely used anymore but remains one of my favorite stats to evaluate pitchers.

          I mean, what’s more telling then how many hits and walks a pitcher averages per inning pitched?

          • I like it too, but it’s flawed in that it counts all hits as equal. K rate is definitely better. Consider: If a pitcher ever had a K rate of 27K/9, it would be almost irrelevant was his WHIP was. Even a WHIP of 3 would result in an amazing ERA.

  24. Excellent post.
    If either two “close to MLB ready pieces” that are not named Stroman or Sanchez
    or three/four pieces that are a bit further away gets it done,
    they should make the deal.
    If the Cubs hold out for Stroman or Sanchez it should be no go.

    One would think Samardzija would be more useful
    in 2014 than Stroman or Sanchez,
    but if Stroman get away and then comes up
    and pulls a Michael Wacha, you’d be positively ill.

  25. Joe Smith off the market, signs 3 yrs w/ Angels, 5 yrs per

    Late inning relief market isn’t too deep and that’s a pretty good deal for the Angels IMO

    AA could do some damage dealing some relievers, will be interesting to see where other teams go now

  26. One of those fun hypotheticals:

    TO TOR: SHARK + JAVIER BAEZ
    TO CHC: SANCHEZ + GOSE + DRABEK

    Who says thanks but no thanks?

  27. I think Samardzija would be a great addition. Obviously, like everyone, I’m hesitant to part with Sanchez and Stroman, but the Jays can still put together a nice package without them. If they want pitching, send them a buffet of Nolin, Drabek, Norris and, what the hell, Romero – some risk, some upside, some certainty.

    But I think Samardzija is probably the best realistic addition the Jays can make – they’re not getting a Price or Scherzer, and while everyone else has a red flag or two, I think Samardzija is a better bet in terms of both reliability and upside than any of the commonly discussed free agent pitchers – Garza, Jimenez, Santana and Nolasco.

  28. I’d be trading draft picks, not nearly mlb ready talent like Stroman, Sanchez or Gose. I wonder what those two first rounders in next year’s draft would fetch.

    • Can’t trade picks though, so that really isn’t an option.

    • Unfortunately you can’t trade draft picks. Even worse, you have to wait a year before trading a guy you drafted. I hope this changes in time.

  29. The first move I would make is to sign Kurt Suzuki. If he can help sort out Ricky Ro, you need one less starter and don’t have to give up more of the farm system.

    • Uhhh, why is there any reason to believe that Suzuki would be able to magically sort out Romero? And like, even if they did sign him with that ridiculous goal in mind (which they definitely would not), do you think the magical fixing would somehow occur over the course of the next month or so and would allow them to swiftly determine that Romero is in fact a part of their plans because Kurt “Harry fucking Potter” Suzuki somehow turned Romero around in a couple of quick sessions before the new year?? And that would then allow them to properly evaluate the rest of the market now that Romero has somehow returned to form?? Like, what world do you live in?

    • Romero is finished, sorry.

      • @Stoeten

        That is depressing. I can’t believe he is finished. He’s not hurt as far as we know.

  30. If he can be had for any player or combination of players that doesn’t include Sanchez, Stroman or Osuna then make the deal. If it includes any of those guys walk away and I’ll be happy to take the wait and see approach as well.
    Realistically, Rogers should fucking extend AA for another 3 years, limited success but there’s only been a couple deals out of the dozens he’s made that I would question. Nothing more dangerous than a GM in “win now” mode.

    • + 1. I would prefer they sign a FA arm and save Stroman and Sanchez for next July if they have shot and the need is there.

      I wouldn’t mind seeing AA get the ball rolling by trying to like get Gomes back from Cleveland. It would be embarrassing for AA but it would solve a problem. Gomes is found money, and I won’t suggest Santana makes him superfluous, but it helps that he’s the backup. What would it take to pry him away? I’m guessing a little more than the Jays would preferably want to give, but less than what it would take to obtain someone like Jason Castro.

  31. While it’s true that much of the jay minor league talent is in lower minors, there best and most marketable players you would think are obviously Stroman and Sanchez both of whom project as AA or up to MLB tho yr .. I can’t imagine a deal that doesn’t include one of them .. Why not take a chance on Stroman/Hutch to start the year and see why happens .. Well they should also sign another p too .. Ubaldo, Nolaspcp, Santana … Kaz?

    I don’t want to deal huge prospects this time around .. Use the $!

  32. All for it if AA can get him w/o Sanchez or Stroman. Dickey Morrow Buerhle Samardzjia FA pitcher would be solid. Morrow please come back healthy and blazing on fire…

  33. Im ok with this as long as the price isnt too steep. Does samardjzia have the upside of a top of the rotation starter? Maaayyyybbbeee. I think the jays could do better or worse.

    • Just wondering though. Why wouldnt a rebuilding big market team like the cubs want to keep samardjizia as a future rotation piece? Something doesnt add up. It shouldnt be a money issue. Could it be they think hes reached his ceiling? Hope AA recognizes this.

      • He has 2 years left on his deal and hasn’t been all that open to re-signing a extension.

        A lot of people had him pegged as a potential breakout candidate last year and to take the next step in becoming a legit front of the rotation guy. He didn’t quite do that, but has the talent. My guess is he’s doubling down with the shot of really establishing himself now, rather than settling for middle rotation money 2 years before free agency.

        He also netted a big bonus when he was drafted to persuade him to pursue baseball instead of football so he’s probably less inclined to play it safe and take less money now.

        I really think I could stomach trading Sanchez for him but I’m probably higher on Samardzija than most (I can spell his name from memory for Christ’s sake).

        The thing with the jays “window” as it is now is that it kind of nicely lines up with where a lot of the jays lower level but highly rated prospects are. When their core is coming off the books around 2016 they’ll hopefully have the next wave of talent coming up, assuming Alex doesn’t trade half the farm every off season.

        What I’m saying is, Flags Fly Forever. Sanchez for Shark: make it happen.

    • “Im ok with this as long as the price isnt too steep”

      lol ok

  34. I feel like a bit of a homer here in saying this, but I don’t want to give up Sanchez, Stroman, or Osuna for this guy. If the deal can get done without one of those three, go for it.

  35. My feeling is that Gose would be part of the deal. Even if the Cubs are looking for pitching, all controllable talent is currency.

  36. Could Samardjzia be a right handed version of J A Happ? If so, then you have your 5th starter, and still need at least one more top of the rotation types. AA will still be on the prowl.

    • He’s much better than that

      • Is he? How do you know? Happ’s body of work is certainly much larger which makes his performance far more predictable, and even he has had some very good runs in small samples. There’s a lot no one knows about Samardzija yet.

  37. Goes+Happ+ Nolin is the proper deal…..Gives them a starting pitcher who will do better in the National League

    • No way that gets it done. Why the hell would they want Happ who has essentially the same contract situation than Samardzija, albeit with a team option for a third year? That makes no sense. They’re looking for quality, young players that have substantial team control.

  38. On A Cubbie Site TheyAre Talking Sanchez, Or Nationals Giolito Or Pirates Taillon. Its GoingToTake Sanchez AndMore.

    • do you know the word aspirational means, google it and there you see a pic of Theo Epstein, ask a great amount and settle for the 2nd level.

  39. Theres no way kevin ahrens isnt involved

    (Ill eat a cookie to that!)

  40. Can we ask him to get a haircut?

  41. He makes Colby look dapper.

  42. Not thrilled to see another NL starter possibly coming over here.
    Also, why would AA’s job be on the line this season? They didn’t get rid of JPR so fast and he had a couple of spend-high seasons that went nowhere.

    • Shark has good GB rates and gets a ton of K’s. I think he’d be a good fit for us.

      Wrigley is no pitcher’s haven either.

    • @Isabella,

      Agreed. I don’t why the media likes to speculate that AA will be fired after this season if hey don’t make the playoffs.

      JPRiccardi lasted 7 years with a high of 87 wins.

      AA has the backing of Beeston. who is tight with Rogers.

    • Fuck off with this NL starter garbage, thanks.

      • Nope. I will continue to be unhappy with NL pitchers until one of them does well at the RC. Believe me, I’ll be delighted to be proved wrong.

        • Mark Buerhle? There, proven wrong. You’re welcome.

          • Really? Mark Buehrle? The Mark Buehrle who pitched in the AL Central from 2000 to 2011 and spent one whole year in the NL with the Marlins? You’d have been better referencing Dickey who pitched with Texas and Minnesota.
            In any case, I would love to be proved wrong so we will see what happens if Mr Shark comes to town.

  43. so would this make samardzija our ace?

  44. “Stand Pat” AA will live up to his name. Nothing gonna happen.

  45. Jays got a top SP prospect, a pretty good corner OF prospect and a high risk/reward Low A C prospect for Halladay.

    Fuckin Roy Halladay.

    What’s our comp in the system to this haul?

    Say Sanchez, DJ Davis and Baretto (because their are no C comps that fit). Or put Gose in for Davis. Whatever. The point is this was for “THE BEST SP IN THE GAME”. And he still only commanded this?

    No way the Shark gets Sanchez+

    • @Dexter,

      Halladay is worth more than Smardjia ( Scrabble 2.0) but everyone knew Halladay wanted to be traded & he would only go to a few cities. It restricted the trade options.

      As far as I know, Smardjia cannot veto a trade to the Jays

  46. Goes+Nolin+ Cecil+ Rogers gives more than enough, Helps Cubs in the Bull pen immediately and an outfielder.

    • Why the hell would they care about their 2014 bullpen?

      • Your correct cubs suck, Goes, Hutch and Stilson, though I think they would settle for Osuna or Norris. Gives them 17 years of prospect control

  47. Bowden was saying that AA had admitted into looking at Smaradzija but hasn’t made an offer to anyone. So that’s pretty much par for the course. I wonder now that’s it out in the open if the Jays just don’t walk away and pursue someone else.

    Here’s a scenario for you. If they were going to have to give up some combination of Stroman/Sanchez would like to see the Jays just go all in again on someone like Price who is by far the superior pitcher and has 2 years remaining on his contract like Smaradzija?

  48. http://soundcloud.com/siriusxmsports/alex-anthopoulos-says-they-are

    Here’s the audio link to AA’s interview with Bowden.

    Just a heads up, you have to sign up for a free account for Soundcloud to listen. It took me 30 seconds.

  49. i heard Gose/Drabek/Hutchinson – flipflop Drabek for Nolin

  50. Why do I get this feeling of dread when I hear prospects on the trading block? SANCHEZ? STROMAN? Even guys like Gose and Hutch, Drabek… They could become stars..

    I say fuck it, try and upgrade C and 2B, don’t sell the farm, I think the “wait and see” approach might just work best.

    A healthy 2014 Jays team is a playoff team.

    • And how often do prospects actually become stars?

      • Trading Sanchez or Stroman in this deal would be ridiculous. How often do top prospects become stars or above average players? More often than you think. How many of these lottery tickets do you want to root against? Let’s face it, that’s what we pretty much all do. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/all-time#2012

        We’ve already traded away two in TDA and Syndergaard, trading our next best one or two really puts us behind the 8 ball as far as developing home grown stars. AA is on record as saying the goal was to be competitive year in and year out. Trading away our top end prospects doesn’t help us accomplish this. Looking at the best teams around the league there is a mix of homegrown players and players acquired via trade and free agency. A mix of young and old. Trading one or two of our best prospects for someone who turns 29 next season and is a free agent at 31 is a step backwards and moves us closer to boom or bust rather than constantly competitive.

    • 100% agree
      Get a FA pitcher as well
      Go Riders

  51. It’s fine and dandy to speculate, but how often are AA’s trades broadcast before they actually go down? Remember when he was the ‘ninja GM’? He’s probably interested in Samardzija, the Serbian prince, but he’s probably interested in half the pitchers in the bigs.

    • It happens all the time. Stop this myth, thanks.

      • There’s lots of times when it’s not rumored also.
        For every move that has come to fruition, there’s a bunch that have no validity.
        This leads to the reputation.
        Think Kevin Gray,Cafardo,and Eskin.
        Throw enough shit at the wall something will stick.

        Still interesting to read about mindless speculation and to use your expression ” bullshit rumors”
        Is AA’s reputation of a ninja GM justified?
        Meh.don’t care enough to argue about it.
        Let the fans have some fun.

        • That’s what I’m saying. I’m shutting down people who just want to cut off every rumour because they want to pretend it could never come to fruition because of the silly myth.

          • Fair enough Stoeten.
            Ya gotta remember also that you’re intune with a lot more sources than the rest of us ( that’s an understatement).
            Many times I hear about it here but you may have heard it earlier from different sources.
            It’s why DJF is a part of my daily reading.
            A few years back I remember a trade that was actually broken by a commenter 4 days before it was rumored.

        • Curious if Eskin took any flac for his BS?

  52. Samardzija should be viewed in the same light as Brandon Morrow in my opinion. If the Jays put Morrow on the block, we’d probably expect a Sanchez/Stroman type return. Samardzija may not be AL East/Rogers Centre tested, but he is more durable and generates more K’s and grounders than Morrow, and both players have 2 years of team control left with Samardzija likely being substantially cheaper. I’d make this deal, even if it means including Sanchez or Stroman.

    Dickey, Buerhle, Morrow, Samardzija, x looks pretty good to me. Good mix of durability/consistency and upside.

  53. Levine follows up on Twitter:

    “Cubs have also had talks with Arizona on Samardzija. Cost will be high (3- 4 top youngsters)”

  54. I love Samardzija but Theo and Jed are’t parting with him unless they get a king’s ransom. That’s their MO. i can’t imagine they wouldn’t be asking for Sanchez and Gose and then some other guys too. That’s why it took so long to get a Garza deal done. I think that a more useful avenue to explore might be the often injured but still quite awesome Brett Anderson.

    • It’s only two years of him, and if they can’t sign him to an extension, they don’t have much choice but to get the best offer they can right now, before his value goes down. It’ll still take a tonne, but let’s not overstate it.

  55. OK…let’s not assume that Samardzija is the Second Coming of the Messiah. He’s a serviceable guy – but at best a # 3 or 4 guy in the rotation (if it’s healthy).
    I’m not entirely nuts about any trade that includes Sanchez and/or Stroman – who, while not destined to be cornerstones of a rotation – represent a couple of guys who could have a higher upside than Samawhatshisname down the line.
    If, however – it’s a matter of “win now”…then I guess it’s a case of go for it. I’m just hate to see what’s left of our prospect shelf cleaned out again. All we’ve got left is a bunch of guys who’ve already had Tommy John problems.

  56. The Cubs timeline has them looking for a Top of the Rotation Pitcher for 2015. TOR =Sanchez + who? Stroman is a reliever, or will be. They probably will want those two, and another with upside. Look what they got for 2 months of Garza. Shark will take more. BlueJays, Diamondbacks, & Nationals may be bidding against each other driving up the price. There may be young talent coming coming back to Jays though as well.

  57. Stoeten, in your opinion, would it be worth doing the deal if the main piece was Sanchez?

    or just stroman.

    or both?

    • I don’t think I’d do either. But I’m not a GM with a job security problem.

      • I understand the clearly imperative performance based incentives regarding AA’s job security and the 2014 season, however at a Sports-Business conference at U of T before the 2013 season, Paul Beeston was asked whether he could see AA could becoming Blue Jays president one day. He said it was possible, depending on the situation.

        That was before 2013, though. I can see how that might not be the case at this present moment.

        • Yeah, I think Beeston loves him. I don’t think it should be so dire for him right now, even– I wouldn’t object to an extension, particularly to give him more of a stake in the future than we fear he may have now– but I think that’s the reality. There will be a lot of pressure to move on if it blows up in 2014. A lot.

          Though, as someone said, Ricciardi hung on for much longer than he should have, so maybe that precedent helps Alex.

          • IMHO
            Seeing that we’re speculating.
            Beeston picked AA to be the GM because he would follow Beeston’s plan on the rebuild.
            Not many experienced GM’s would do the same.
            AA’s been a good soldier while serving his apprenticeship to possibly becoming president.Cito served his purpose and was rewarded.
            AA will feel the pressure if 2014′s a fail, but Beeston has his back cause it’s his plan.

          • The suggestion of extending AA is interesting. It seemed like when Kansas City traded Wil Myers last year it was due to a perceived pressure for Dayton Moore to win now or lose his job.

            Let’s hope that ownership doesn’t force Alex into the position where he has to make unreasonable tradeoffs of future value for immediate gains to save try and save his job. I remain optistic about 2014, but i certainly agree it could be pivotal for our GM’s career in Toronto.

          • @Stoeten

            +1.

            AA isn’t going anywhere. He saved the franchise budget with his early trades, of Wells etc.

            He gamed the prospect system, and used his prospects to get MLB players from the marlins & mets.

            No one thought the team on paper would win 74 games

      • Neither, so far as I know, is AA. Seriously Stoeten, have you heard something we haven’t? Because there is nothing out there that I’ve seen that suggests his job is on the line except stuff in blogs like this one. Which doesn’t mean you’re wrong. But unless you have something concrete doesn’t convince me you’re right either. AA had a disastrous year after making a big splash in the off-season but no one could have seen that disaster coming. I can’t see Beeston et al bouncing him for that. Farrell seems to have been Beeston’s hire–at least AA’s comments when he hired Gibbon seem to suggest it so I doubt he’s wearing that one either. If AA makes trades and fa deals that don’t work out they will get rid of him. But not this fast. They kept Ricciardi around for eight years before they bounced him. And by the end there he was behaving almost as erratically as Rob Ford what with the leaks to US media and the Halladay circus. He basically fired himself.

  58. Stoeten: Thanks for keeping everything in perspective. And kudos for slapping your many followers, who become irrational during the off season, especially when it comes to speculation over trades.

  59. It would help to know if they were serious about going after Tanaka but do we even know what the process is going to be yet?

  60. I think Samardija is too small of a target, don’t ask me who else AA might be looking at but I think he is aiming higher.

    • Again: top 50 SP by fWAR this year, top 35 last year. Not THAT much room to aim higher.

      • Yeah, I’m not saying he’s shit or anything but I think AA would want someone else first and not to mention trading with the Cubs scares the shit out of me.

      • I think we should be hesitant to overvalue him based on his fWAR and peripherals. After a point, ERA (and rWAR) becomes a better predictor of future ERA.

        It’s a nice hope that he’ll catch up to his peripherals but there are players that can sustain a gap between their FIP and ERA (Cain, Morrow, Dickey, etc.).

        For only 2 years of control, I’d be quite upset if he costs significant assets.

  61. If they want Stroman or Sanchez, expand the deal to include Welington Castillo. 4.4 WAR from a catcher in 428 PAs.
    You want em? COME GET EM!

    • I doubt they would trade Castillo as they figure him a core piece for the future, but there has been talk. It would def take both (Stroman & Sanchez) then…plus more.

  62. Holy shitballs! Jhonny got paid!

  63. Can we not use Stroman and Sanchez this year? Isn’t there a chance they do nearly as well as anyone else that costs 15M or costs more of our farm system?

    • They should both be at ST in Dunedin this year. They can figure it out from there. Don’t forget especially with these 2 that the “super 2″ rule will affect them.

  64. [...] while popular Blue Jays blogger, Andrew Stoeten, from Drunk Jays Fans declares for himself that “I could take a wait-and-see approach for 2014 with much of the current [...]

  65. He’s an innings eater, and has good peripherals. If you could get him and had money to snag Ubaldo, it would mean some very good things for this rotation.

    Pie in the sky, maybe.

  66. 213 innings last year, 178 the year before. If we’re going to give guys like Morrow, Hutch, etc. a chance this year, we need guys that stand a good chance of throwing 200 reliable innings. Jeff S (no – I’m not trying to spell his name. I thought I was safe now that Rzcepznicki is gone) checks those boxes. I’d be a bit concerned if one of Sanchez or Strohman went the other way, but otherwise seems to fit the bill.

  67. I’d try to expand the deal to include Starlin Castro (if a deal even exists here at all), which is something AA loves to do anyway. He’s a good buy low, change of scenery candidate who’s still very young. It looks like he’s getting sick of playing in Chi town and the fans and management are getting tired of his mental lapses. The Cubs also have a top ss prospect who’s nearly ready for prime time. Perhaps Castro could slide over to second and give us the two shortstops up the middle AA said we need. Seems reasonable to me anyway and it would make trading away Sanchez etc. much more palatable.

  68. What about Bartolo Colon on a 1yr deal?
    He’s as risky as the next guy, but on a 1yr deal
    he might be a bridge to Stroman and Sanchez.

  69. I was just reading about catching prospect Santiago Nessy and they have him projected as a second division starter.
    Does that mean he’s basically a AAA starter at best? This second division ranking is confusing me.

    • Nah, second division starter is basically saying starter-worthy, but below average. First division would refer to an above average starter.

      Someone like Chris Iannetta is an example of a second division starter. Definitely MLB calibre, and you wouldn’t complain about having him in your lineup, but you couls also certainly do better.

      On a WAR scale, it would probably be a typically 1 to 2 WAR player.

    • First division starter would be a 60 on the 20-80 scale and a second division would be a 50 or an average major leaguer. This is how I understand it.

  70. Can we just overpay for Garza and call it a day?

    • Him or Ubaldo -yeah . AA keeps indicating they have $$$ to pursue some FA talent in particular pitchers so spend some of the fukin money already.
      And..I don’t mean spending it on useless fuksticks like Bronson arroyo and his 83mph fastball or URa Dolt and his wonky arm. C’mon man, we gotta get that momo going for next year that saw blue Jay nation showing up in droves in most away parks we palyed in

  71. Warm summer breezes, suns going down…
    It’s all dark…
    At the ballpark

    But that’s ok…… because it’s a night game.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qag6w_Tp50A

    Go get us some pitchers Alex.

  72. Hmm
    @bnicholsonsmith: Anthopoulos to @JimBowdenESPNxm: Jays discussing smaller trade that may potentially be completed within a few days (https://t.co/8usdDfO4xB)

    • Could really be anything. I would guess that wouldn’t refer to a deal for pitching, where they would need a big upgrade. But perhaps a ‘small’ upgrade at C (Iannetta?) or 2B (I unno, Darwin Barney?) or a bench bat (Stubbs?)

      • Or it is a trade involving one of their relievers or 5th starter/longmen (e.g., Rogers, Redmond).

        • I hope it’s Delabar.

          Even though he’s awesome I’m big on selling relievers at max value. Delabars won’t be any higher than it is now and he probably has more trade value than any other bullpen piece.

          Losing him would suck but someone’s gotta go in that pen. Might as well be the guy that lands you a decent return.

          And we seriously got him for Eric Thames… so whatever we get can only be a win.

  73. I guess after trading for all those Fish last year, they want to try trading for a Shark this time?

  74. Personally I think people worried about losing Sanchez or Stroman have the Syndergaard thing in the back of their mind. That deal is done. We might have buyers remorse but that’s no reason to horde top prospects this offseason. Syndergaard today is more highly ranked than even Sanchez. There’s no reason to believe Sanchez will have an incredible season in the minors in 2014 like Syndergaard last year.

    We’ve come this far and need to finish off the job right even if it takes Stroman/Sanchez. It definitely seems like Samardzija will cost 1 of them. Remember when AA broke down the Marlins deal, he originally only wanted Johnson, but because the Marlins were dead set on one of the Lansing 3 he decided to make it a bigger deal by taking on the Buehrle and Reyes contracts.

  75. Pass on Samardzija. Jays have no leverage, going to overpay.

    • 200 innings from a guy that pitches like Morrow for Stroman, who, in my opinion will be a mid reliever someday. Might be good might shit the bed. Won’t be a superstar take the proven pitcher.

  76. Would the Shields to Kansas trade be a bit Ig a comp for this?

    Trying to think of good but not great starters being traded with 2 years of control.

    Shields is obviously more valuable than the Shark but maybe it’s a starting point?

    • That was one of the worst overpays in years, so I really hope they don’t try to comp to that.

      • I know it was looked at as a steep price at the time of the trade. And Davis went to Kansas too. And Shields > Shark.

        So maybe your right…. Not a great comp.

        Just looking for something comparable to speculate on. Ideas?

  77. Coming to this website is a bit like going to Jet Fuel for coffee.

  78. Jose Molina to stay with the Tampa Bay Rays with a two year deal!

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/rays-to-sign-jose-molina.html

    There goes another option for the Jays. I wonder who AA is targeting if MCcann, Molina are no longer available

    Odds are increasing that JPA returns in 2014. This website would crash if AA brought him back.

  79. I would offer AA’s left nut and the farm for Price though.

    • @Tom.

      I doubt the Rays would trade Price to a division rival.

      I agree that Molina wasn’t a top target , but based on JPA’s numbers, Molina would be an upgrade… Sad but true.

      • Haha no

        • It is a bs thing about the divisional with the WC. I hate that and the NL pitcher thing. The Rays would fucking jump on the farm for Price….that is how they operate. Oh, and they have a genius manager but don’t tell our leader.

      • I dont understand this sentiment. If a team in the division gives you what you believe is the best return on the trade, then it is a mistake to simply take less to get him out of the division.

        If the Rays trade price to someone in the division, they are going to no doubt significantly weaken that team in terms of prospect capital and perhaps young MLB roster players.

        You also aren’t just competing within your division for playoff spots.

    • I would also offer up that particular testicle in any Price deal.

  80. What kind of contract does Garza sign? And why is no one talking about him around these parts? He doesn’t get more than 5 @ 20 per does he?

    • I would endorse a 5 yr, 80 million deal with a couple of large team options on top. I can’t believe it would take too much more, no?

      • Would he be that much? Craziness. I’d probably still pay if I had the cheddar.

        • Well if I could get a guy like Garza signed I might just use Buerhle plus a Gose and go after Phillips and Bailey…pipe dream, but I don’t think too far fetched. Don’t shit on me for dreaming…..

          • That doesn’t make any sense for CIN. They take on big money in Buerhle while possibly giving up an equally good, cheaper SP. Also, they have no need for Gose.

  81. I don’t understand why more people don’t say we sell the farm for Sherzer… Only way to get a true Ace. Wouldn’t it be worth it and then get whoever from FA or our own depth for catcher and second base?

  82. Well Haren is going to the Dodgers for 1 yr and 10 mil.

    Makes me wonder if the Jays should have rolled the dice for one more year of Johnston

  83. For fucks sake….Be realistic. We aren’t selling the farm for Scherzer. Even if we had enough, I can almost guarantee the Tigers wouldn’t trade him after being that fucking close to a championship.

    And what exactly is the problem with trading something like Gose+Norris for Samardizja? He’s been pretty good for the Cubs for three fucking years now. Would you rather have goddamn J.A. Happ and his 85 pitches through four innings act making 25 starts?

  84. Fucking use Happ as a trade chip to upgrade the bench. A replacement for DeRosa, who provides a bit more offence.

  85. Everyone needs to calm down with the “get him….no get him….not get him…” bs.

    The money and / or years given to some of these guys is insane. We are fine in the rotation. Sure I would like to upgrade like anyone else..but not at the prices im seeing.

    • The money is not insane. The money is there because baseball teams, including this one, are making really insane amounts. They are supposed to spend some of it on players.

      What is insane is the choice to forgo free agency and instead trade prospects to acquire players who are already signed to market rate deals. Now THAT is really fucking stupid.

  86. Voros I’m with you, but with all due respect, I’m not fine with Todd Redmond and J.A. Happ as the #4 #5 starters, or with the fucking prospect of relying on rookies to play key roles in the rotation. Didn’t we already go through that in ’12 with Alvarez and Drabek? How’d that end up?

    This team has money. Fucking spend it on Ubaldo or Garza, and get Shark to be the #5. If it blows up, then rely on the young guys or the AAAA depth that they have.

    • They “have” the money? Who is they? Rogers has the money to buy Russia but that doesnt mean they will.

      Its not as if AA is simply eschewing free agents because he wants to. He is under certain stipulations with regards to years and dollars allowed to give to free agents.

      You are also painting a more bleak picture than is true for the rotation.

      as for trading for players signed to market value…..if they were signed to market value a few years ago..then its actually a bargain vs. signing a free agent now.
      \

  87. Oh for crying in the fucking mud.

    I’m painting a bleak picture because they finished in last place in the A.L, in starters ERA and are already relying on Morrow coming back strong after a serious arm injury. Why in christ’s name would you want to risk fucking up the season running out rookies, former relief pitchers and career minor leaguers for 2 starts of every 5.

    Of course Rogers will spend the money. They did last year and attendance/interest skyrocketed. They’ll do it again.

    • definitely agree with your first point, and pray you are correct about your second

      • So that’s how you get your name to be a link. Guess I should warn anyone that that link is NSFW…guess I coulda used a better test link….somehow was the first thing I had open.

        it’s late and ive been writing papers I dont give a fuck about all weekend =/

    • Not all rookies are created alike.

      You’re right, there’s some degree of risk in relying on a rookie arm. But if last season taught us anything, there’s some degree of risk relying on absolutely anyone.

      • If the Jays don’t add 2 good starters to Dickey, Buerhle and Morrow and end up winning 90-95 games and get in the playoffs, or miss by a hair, they will have gotten pretty fortunate in this author’s humble fucking opinion. I’d rather pony up now and bank on Ubaldo’s upside and Sharks durability to make us a playoff team rather than be Kyle Drabek’d and Henderson Alvarezed in the first three goddamn months again. I don’t think the issue is whether Rogers will pony up, it’s whether A.A can pull off one good trade or get one of Santana, Garza or Ubaldo to fucking sign here.

        Christ this is getting stressful.

    • Attendance “skyrocketed” because of anticipation from last Nov/Dec moves. Based on 2013 season the Jays don’t have this luxury. Without strategic moves by AA this winter (and possibly in May/June 2014) the Jays will take it on the chin from their fans.

      I don’t expect much in FA market, but Jays WILL find betters options at 2B (very least Goins) and C (maybe Rule 5 for Kottaras), then possible trade of RP+prospect+Gose for mid-tier SP with solid IP, good era and high grndball %.

  88. It should say “pull off one good trade AND get one of Santana, Garza or Ubaldo to sign here.”

    Guess what it really boils down to is what the narrative already fucking was from July onwards last year…..We hope to fuck AA can pull a rabbit out of a fucking hat here.

  89. Lolz:

    @fantasyrundown
    Would imagine Brett Lawrie and Aaron Sanchez would be a nice start…
    3:47pm – 24 Nov 13

  90. Funny how Drabek dropped out of the conversation so quick. He was the centrepiece of the Halladay trade.

    • Whoops

    • I haven’t given up on him being a viable MLB starter still… though it’s been noted (by klaw among others) how rarely guys with his injury history actually end up having decent careers.

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