Bob Elliott’s latest for the Toronto Sun cuts straight to the point from the first patented Sun-style sentenceragraph:

Colby Rasmus is on the market and has been offered to two teams by the Blue Jays for starting pitching.

Well, OK then. That’s not entirely surprising, and if another team bites with interest in giving up a huge arm for him, I can understand why the club would be comfortable going with Anthony Gose in centre.

That may seem inconsistent to those who’ve noticed how not comfortable I am with the suggestions of having Ryan Goins play second base, but it’s really based on two things: the fact that Gose brings his elite defence to a position that’s more important than second base, and the fact that he’s two-and-a-half years younger than Goins, and having about the same amount of success. In fact, Gose was in New Hampshire a year before Goins, and at three-and-a-half years younger, he put up a .348 wOBA to Goins’ .336. Neither setup is ideal, of course.

Speaking of Rasmus, though, here’s a thought: as we discussed in the last post, the Reds may be looking to deal a starter. One of the possibilities there for them would be moving Homer Bailey rather than keeping him as he heads into his last season before free agency. Billy Hamilton is pencilled in to play centre for Cincinnati, but if they want him to get more seasoning before handing him the job– his line in his first crack at triple-A was just .256/.308/.343– or if they move Brandon Phillips with the thought of shifting Hamilton to second base, maybe Rasmus for Bailey works. Both are in their final arbitration years– with Rasmus projected to make about $3-million less– and they both occupy a position of strength for their current clubs, and would be moving to a position of weakness the the acquiring team in a deal.

Just crazy enough to work? Hmmm…

So… there’s that.

There’s also another interesting angle in Elliott’s latest, but I’ll save that for the next post!

Comments (143)

  1. Can’t they just ask Rogers for a few more million and sign Matt Garza instead of trading one of their better players away for a starter?

    • +1000000

    • We don’t know.

      Doesn’t necessarily work that way, and to a point it shouldn’t. I have a hard time believing $150-million is that point, but… it’s their business to run, so who knows.

      Though I’ve also heard rumblings that they more interested in the free agent market that they’re letting on, FWIW.

      • I’d rather them just keep what they have than trading Colby away for a starter. It’s that big of a downgrade after him (Gose can’t hit) in a year they absolutely have to win.

        But I suppose there are bigger considerations at play here (like whether they can or even want to extend him).

        • And Gosse cant catch either. Colby is just starting to feel comfortable and have fun. Big mistake to trade him. As usual, he will go somewhere else and be an exceptional player.

        • I don’t understand the confidence in Gose. He is highly over-rated, in my opinion, and would be the preferred piece in a trade. Colby ought to be our centre fielder.

    • Last I saw Free Agents get a say on where they sign.


    I am irrationally afraid!

  3. Earlier today Ben Nicholson-Smith hinted that AA may be willing to do 6 years in the right circumstance. Now I thought “only guy left worth 6 would be Tanaka”…. but what if he added a 6 year deal via trade? Matt Kemp has 6 years left, and if they Jays do use Rasmus to help the rotation, it could open up for Kemp whom the Jays have already been linked to. LA seems willing to eat $$$ if they get enough of a return (which the Jays can accomidate). Does Rasmus land Bailey? Masterson?

    • I honestly don’t know why anybody would touch Kemp without the Dodgers paying almost all the freight, at this point, and I don’t know why the Dodgers would do that, either. It’s like AA’s POV on Romero, really.

      • I’m not a fan of a Kemp pickup either, just trying to connect the dots. While the rotation is in need of an upgrade, it’s not like the lineup doesn’t have it’s question marks either (2B, still C until proven otherwise, LF, 3B?….). Dealing Rasmus, and going to Gose would seem like a major drop off and fill a hole while creating another. One step forward, one step back doesn’t lead 70 win teams to the playoffs. I’d maybe roll the dice on a Happ, Hutchison or even Stroman and see what happens. Maybe they’re Choo’s mystery team. I really don’t know.

        Dealing Rasmus, who would not only provide production in the lineup this year, but a comp pick next year would need to be a big return IMO.

      • Romero for Kemp?

      • Romero is not a fair comparison as he seems to have fallen completely off a cliff. Kemp has been derailed by injuries.

        According to ESPN, LA would be willing to include money in a Kemp deal, who knows how much that is but a healthy M.K. is potentially an 8 win player. Someone is going to take that gamble and when we revisit this conversation in a year I think 28 other teams will be regretting not acquiring him.

      • One fundamental difference between Kemp and Romero, is all you have to do with Kemp is keep him on the field. With Romero, keeping him on the field is the opposite of what you want to be doing.

    • With his vesting option Hamels is also 6 years. I thought that comment might be in reference to him. Just purely a guess of course.

      • I too thought Hamels, but if philly is looking for top return and picking up no money I don’t see how that works for Toronto. Unless it’s Rasmus for Hamels and the Jays move Beurhle. I only starting thinking Kemp once Rasmus was mentioned as a potential move.

  4. Reds GM Walt Jocketty was the Cardinals GM through 2007, so he was in charge when Rasmus was drafted.

  5. Interesting. Wonder if AA might try and swing getting a CF with a pitcher back as well. Not sure if there’s teams out there that would be interested in that, though.

  6. Yeah not a real fan of trading Colby. He makes the current team that much better. Rather burn a prospect even if it’s Sanchez to keep Colby this year and collect another pick this winter. His left handed power is a big plus and balances out EE and Jose nicely.

    IMO if everyone is healthy this year and they can get even a league average 2nd baseman that gets on base this offense is going to just fucking wreck opposing pitching just like it was doing earlier this year before the injuries kicked in. Again I think you might see some regression in the pen or at least some fluctuations there along with uncertainty in the rotation. Why not keep your best weapon intact and use your store of prospects to bulk up the rotation.

    • Huge regression risk, though, too.

      • Yeah but even a regressed Colby is better than Gose or I like to think that’s the case. Then there’s his comp pick next winter. With the Free Agent market so thin it would be doubtful that he would accept one from the Jays.

        • That’s not really the question you should be asking, Rasmus > Gose is obvious. The real question is whether or not the upgrade to the rotation would be larger than the drop off from Rasmus to Gose. When you consider the fact that there’s likely some regression coming (even if it isn’t huge), I’m inclined to think it could be worth it.

          • There’s regression risk with pretty much anybody you add also. I don’t think that is something you can put emphasis on. Make an educated move, do your homework and hope you don’t get baseballed.

          • But you’re not taking into account the other options like free agency and prospects that could get you something equivalent. Colby for a starter isn’t the only option. Again I don’t think you can beat adding to your roster without subtracting from it first.

      • any chance they go after Choo if they deal Rasmus for a SP?

        • Would be a first for the Jays in recent memory if they did. Personally I just don’t see it in the budget but man put him in front of Jose EE and Lind and you’d rack up the rbi’s in a hurry.

        • close to zero chance they go for Choo. he’s asking for 7 years and $140+ million. Jays aren’t doing that. plus Choo’s best position is RF. the Jays happen to have a RF who is pretty decent.

  7. I kinda love Colby. Hope there is a better way.

  8. Pure speculation… but I wonder if they’ve had conversations with Colby about an extension and are very far apart. That could lead to a willingness to trade.

    Aside from that, he’s an asset and he’ll net a draft pick for whatever team has him next fall.

    I like Colby, but I’m OK with this and CF is more of a position of strength than other areas of the team.

  9. I love Cletus as much as anyone and would love to see the roster improved without moving him. Not a big Gose fan either. But you know what makes everything easier? Winning.

  10. Huuugge mistake starting gose in a year they are competing. If your trading rasmus, you need an adequate replacement.

    • I disagree. The defense should save a good deal more runs and help the pitching out some. I love Colby, but he’s above-average and Gose profiles as elite.

      It is a risk, but not a major one, especially since Colby has had a Jekyll-Hyde act of his own.

      I say that as a guy who really likes what Rasmus brings though.

      • Sorry I just don’t see Gose’s defense alone coming out to the nearly 5 WAR to make up for the all round package Colby brings. Also I think Gose if far more valuable to this team in filling the role that Davis did last year as a late inning defensive replacement for Melky and or pinch runner. He’s got the ability to do everything Rajai did with his legs late in games. Power is at a premium these days, that’s a really hard thing to trade away.

  11. I love me some Cletus.
    Have from the start.
    Please say it ain’t so.

    • Indeed. Can’t be trading one of my boys now can we?

      • Is that you, night_manimal?

        • Aye!

        • Hey Spuds: Huge regeression risk with Colby and, I truly believe AA would like to rid the team of two of the top4 SO kings in baseball and get more BABIP oriented (JPA already gone). No, I don’t know this for a fact,just surmising about some commenys he has made about “more productive outs” and better “situational hitting AKA more contact on the ball and less whifing.
          I iknow I will never convince most people on here that are in his corner, but I think his trade value is high now so trade him. Most people are just looking at his formidable 2012 year ( is that an outlier , or the real Colby?) forgetting that he made my fukstik squad by being so poor in 2012 after being so-so in2011.
          I congratulate him for getting out of the fukstik zone, he had a great year and I like the guy and his cornball sayings. However, we have a decent replacement in Gose, maybe someone else and if he nets a good SP, I say go for it, ideally one that has at least 2 years left. I think there is enough risk that Colby regresses to 240 or so next year to justify trading him. Oh.. and his arm is still one of the worst in the league. Gose beats him by a mile there

          • Sometimes I just want to dance with the one that brung ya.
            Stay the course.
            Dare to believe.
            And truth to tell, his so-called fulstik status was your bad bro, not his.
            His trade value is high for a very good reason.

  12. Actually it’s getting kind of amusing watching what AA is doing to Jays fans (me included!!) by saying this and then saying that. I think all our heads (and I bet his too) are collectively spinning with all the different options in place. All I know is it would be one hell of a documentary to watch him over the course of a winter.

  13. looking at Gose’s numbers in AA, even as a comparison to Goins, seems like more than a reach, considering it was 2 years ago, and he’s been a fuckin pumpkin for a year and a half since

  14. This was an interesting tell from AA in that Sun piece: ““We have a chance to be more productive on the trade front (than free agency), we can add a starter, say, for a starter, a reliever and a prospect,” said Anthopoulos, “but we wouldn’t do a deal if we had to give up two of our starters.”

    Maybe gives an indication on one the frameworks the Jays are approaching teams with…

    Happ, Santos + Nolin for Gallardo? for Shark? It’s probably too much for a guy with a year left till FA like Bailey.

    • I don’t see that being enough for Shark. Add one of Tirado/Norris to that package and maybe…. not sure what appeal Happ would have to Chicago though.

      • A relatively cheap innings eater on a team that’s not going to contend. They still need guys to pitch.

        • I’m not suggesting they won’t take him. But he won’t add value to a Shark package even if he’s included in it. They’d take him. Get his money off the Jays books. But he’s not going to make the Cubs say ‘OK deal’.

      • Yeah I agree that the Cubs are probably asking for a lot given what they got for a few months of Garza. Still, that combo – Starter, reliever, prospect – in whatever iteration may be what AA is opening with.

  15. Noooooo

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  16. Dislike.

    Move other pieces.

    I bought a Rasmus jersey!!

    Seriously though, theres better choices to move IMO. But I trust AA all the same.

  17. We should be careful what we give Colby up for. If we don’t resign him, he’s more or less a guaranteed first-round pick in next year’s draft.

    On that note, that might be why a bunch of one-year-left players might be worth more than we think.

  18. Judging by that article, it seems AA is far more ironclad in that 5-year policy than it seemed a couple posts ago.

    Not that I necessarily think that’s a bad thing, but it’s worth mentioning.

    • Obviously he wants a sustainable product and imo the best way to do that is not trade away your prospects for what you can get on the free agent market. I know I am oversimplifying but now that Rodgers is starting to spend I’d hate to see him continue to spend prospects.

  19. Having Gose’s bat last season instead of Colby would have been devastating, do we have any reason to believe that this year it wouldn’t be the same? Honest question.

  20. Bautista? Yes, trade him, diminishing numbers, always hurt, umpire issues, Sierra/Gose/Pillar/Free agent can fill. Hell, sign Choo.

    Colby? He’s finally fucking found himself, took him this long, now he’s ready to cash in his talent, and the Jays need to be the beneficiaries. No AA, don’t do it.

  21. I don’t mind this. I think Colby’s value will never be higher, as much as I don’t want that to be true. He’s a very valuable trade commodity.

  22. Maybe Gose won’t be the replacement.

  23. My biggest concern with trading Colby Rasmus is that it will negatively impact the large Blue Jay demographic of passively-interested female sports fans under 40. I mean, with JP Arencibia gone, Colby was really all they had left. What is the message here from Rogers? That we will no longer employ chiseled center-fielders? That we’re more interested in things like “numbers” and “stats”? If that’s the case, they may well just be saying bye-bye to every wife, daughter and girlfriend in the GTA.

  24. The best play here, if they’re really willing to trade Rasmus, is to go after Dominic Brown, not Kemp and bring up Gose for cf, move Melke to dh/4th outfielder. As I wrote this A.M, (wasting my words of wisdom as the last, unread poster on another thread):

    f I were AA, I’d be going hard after Domonic Brown . He slowed down a bit after getting concussed and hurting his foot last year and is not much defensively but he was the top minor leaguer in the game a couple years ago and his offensive upside is almost unlimited. It doesn’t seem like Philly wants him and we don’t have a position open for him but it looks like he could be had relatively cheaply. I’d give up Sanchez plus for this guy in a heartbeat.

    Andrew Stoeten says:
    12.10.13 @ 8:20 AM EST

    His offensive upside is almost unlimited???

    He’s not a good defensive outfielder, and he stopped being a top prospect after he kept trying his hand at the big leagues and not being good. He’s already 26.

    By fWAR he was worth 1.6 wins last year. In over 1000 career big league plate appearances he has a wRC+ of 107.

    He’s a nice piece and it would be great to get him and have him keep up what he did last year while also not being godawful defensively, but this talk is kinda nuts.

    roy says:
    12.10.13 @ 9:55 AM EST

    What all that means is simply that he hasn’t been great yet. My point was that I think, unlike you and the Phillies, that he’s about to blossom offensively. I’m aware that his stats have not been good in the past but all that really proves is that he has not been good in the past. He’s only 26 and showed the potential for greatness last summer, not for the first time though last year was his first as a regular. Sanchez is a great prospect who hasn’t done a damned thing yet, like all great prospects. Brown has already proven he can perform at a very high level. I’d rather have a guy who can perform rather than a guy who might or, more likely given the nature of prospects, might not perform at the MLB level. What’s kinda crazy is that you seem to think he’s already all washed up even though he hit 27 homers and had an ops over .800 in 139 games last, despite playing through a concussion and a lingering foot injury in his first real shot playing full time. He’s never had more than 200 at bats in a year before this year which really makes all your sabermetric measuring pretty pointless in this instance due to the small sample size. Using that same small sample approach, I could point out that he hit 12 homers last May before he got hurt.
    What I was also trying to get at it my previous post is that trading to fill holes on a team is not always the best strategy. The same is true of draft strategy: do you draft to fill the hole on your team or do you take the best player available, regardless of position? I think there are times that you need to be flexible and its often a good idea to grab a good young player at a discount even if there is no obvious position immediately available for him. That is neither crazy nor stupid.

    I admit it’s just all speculation/spitballing/wishful thinking on my part but I’d love to see the Jays get Brown and I could live with Gose replacing Rasmus easily if we got the reasonably priced, controllable Brown and a good arm. Sorry for being long-winded.

    • Then you’re back to trading more pieces to get Brown. The whole idea is to try and keep all your good pieces at the MLB on your roster and add to them via free agency or by trades for prospects that aren’t likely to help any time soon. Where is Brown going to play? He’s a corner outfielder which is where the Jays are set at not to mention at DH. Getting power and defense from a prime position like CF is something most teams dream about.

      • Sure, and nobody knows what the price is for Brown, but all indications are that it isn’t that high. As I said in the earlier post this a.m (and again above)., I’d happily trade Sanchez for him and a middle reliever or other minor pieces if needed. Heresy apparently, but I have this crazy idea that a major leaguer with 20/30 potential and an .800 + ops is worth more than a great high A pitcher.

        • Actually I think Olney said philly was looking for 2-3 young players in return so he’s not going to be cheap.

    • Have you seen Gosse play? Be is crap outfield. Colby saves runs. Get rid of Gosse and trade JB and see what they can get. I wish it was Price. Oh and throw in Drabek just for fun.

      • Die

      • Your constant, deliberate misspelling of “Gose” makes your trolling insanely obvious. Try to be more subtle in the future, if you really want people to believe in you.

        • Nope. Just have problems spelling Gose. It isnt like it is a name you see everyday. Dont know why I always think it is a double s. Oh well. I hope he is the one traded. And i still think that is not the fielder Colby is and he never will be. Colby reminds me of Devon White. Great fielder with great speed.

  25. Only problem is if and it’s a huge if…. Who plays backup CF(assuming gose is starter) no one really suited for the role as it stands

    • Good point. I could live with Brown in cf once a week since he has some speed. Or trade for a backup cf I suppose. Backups aren’t that hard to find. Go after De Aza since he’s available from the Sox if you like, though he’s a bit pricey for a backup.

  26. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/can-colby-rasmus-survive-a-visit-from-the-babip-regression-monster/

    There’s that article again about Colby. While I agree the BABIP was unusually high even a mild regression still makes him worth holding onto compared to the alternatives (at least in-house ones). Don’t forget at 27 he’s also coming into his prime.

  27. In 2012 people would have traded him for no return. Now we don’t want to trade him for a front line starter.

    I like Colby, but I don’t trust him. He has a tendency to be streaky and has a high k rate. If a team desperately needs a cf and couldn’t afford Ellsbury or another option I absolutely offer Colby. But based on the market value it would be expensive for a team to pull him away from the jays.

    • I share these sentiments. I don’t see holding onto him as a win in the long run. Either he has a good year and prices himself out of the Jays range and they get a pick, or he has a bad year, probably isn’t worth signing and brings back no pick. Either way I don’t see Colby back with the Jays after next year, if a decent starter can be had for him, I’d make the deal. Preferably for someone with more control, but that may mean value would have to be added. Santos and Colby for Iwakuma. What say you?

  28. Noooo! Colby is awesome!! Has there been any talk of extending him? I don’t see much benefit to a trade like this. Maybe for a pitcher like bailey who has more than one year of control

    • The benefit is you save a ton of money after 2014, replace him with a far better defensive cf with a canon arm and get a starter for him. What more do you want?

      • Since you’re asking Santa:

        Someone who can hit the long ball and keep the chicks happy while playing a great CF.
        A free agent starter acquisition.
        A trade for a 2nd baseman who can hit and play d.
        Unrestrained access to the Magical Dead Ted Wallet.

      • A cf that can hit. Gose can’t even hit in AAA. Also if you don’t care him u should get more than a pitcher with more than one year of control. Elite CFs don’t grow on trees u know

  29. Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 1m

    #cubs brass meeting with jeff samardzija’s agents wednesday. offer isnt necessarily expected, extension unlikely anyway.

    So maybe this is the hold up with Samardzija. Might see some movement by tomorrow night.

  30. You don’t get it. The slogan for next year is, “Winning Ugly.” I heard they’re going to hire Ron Karkovice and Otis Nixon to do a lot of PR work.

  31. The problem with Gose is the problem with Goins. Neither can hit. Stoets, you do an admirable but unsuccessful job of trying to wriggle out of this fact, but the fact remains. Trading Rasmus and having Gose in CF (and! Goins at 2d base) seriously reduces our offensive power with (Goins the exception) little defensive up take.
    I could get on board with dumping Rasmus (um, no I’m not sure I can) if we worked to get a power outfielder and an upgrade at 2b but the word is that we’re selling Cletus for a pitcher.
    I for one am not buying that deal.

    • Pitching and defense wins. The 1982 Cardinals had 67 homeruns. As an entire fuckin team!

      I don’t want to see Colby go but saying we couldn’t win with 2 defensive stars who can’t hit is incorrect.

      • OK, you’re right on the stats and defence/pitching call. But why trade Rasmus to get there? We got buckets of relief and young SPs to spare. I want Rasmus here with the SPs we trade for. (Goins .. he’s another story… I like him the way I like Gose: defence is awesome but that’s it.).

    • I’m pretty sure stoeten highlighted the difference between giving Gose the CF job and Goins the 2B job. Comes down to the positional value of either position (obviously higher for CF) and Gose’s greater pedigree as a prospect. I’d also add that Gose brings big value on the basepaths that Goins doesn’t.

      • Yes, but the problem is that Gose can’t get on the basepaths. Because can’t hit. Just like Goins.

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    • Off hand, recently the Cards won with Jon jay in CF, a light hitting, defence first CF.

      The Red Sox certainly didn’t get much power from Ellsbury this past year, as you say power is so critical from our CF. But they did okay.

      The Giants, didn’t they have Angel Pagan in CF.

      Shall I continue?

      While I love Cletus, I can live with Gose. We can win with Gose. His defence is much better than Colby’s, and who is to say Colby doesn’t regress. With that BABIP, he’s due to.

      Sell high.

      • For one thing, the Cards and Red Sox have better pitching and offense at most positions.

        Also, if Gose hits as well as “light-hitting” Jon Jay in 2014, I’d be delighted.

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    • This is the stupidest comment I have ever read anywhere. Someone is going to give us a power outfielder and a 2b… for our power outfielder?

  32. None of this is probably true anyway

  33. Masterson for Colby, sign Grady Sizemore.

  34. It ALL depends on the return here. I can survive with Gose at CF no problem too. He defence is plus, plus. Off the charts D.

    Teaching that kid how to lay down a bunt, he can beat them out. Just get the kid on base and live with the amazing D.

    If the return on Colby is a proven frontline starter, and has draft pick comp attached, like Bailey) then I say go for it.

    What we seem to forget is that Colby’s value may never be higher. With that likely QO and draft pick attached, the time to capitalize is now. The draft pick goes away when baseball resumes.

    If it strengthens the rotation, great.

    • All-defense players are fun to dream on, until you actually have to watch them hit. Colby is an excellent defender in his own right, and is showing signs of maturing into an offensive star.

      Gose hasn’t shown signs of being able to hit at any level.

    • If it is a straight one for one trade then that pitcher’s WAR better be up there with Colby’s.

      • Honestly, the rampant underrating of Colby’s performance in 2014 is just mindboggling. He put up the same WAR as Buster fuckin Posey, in 30 less games. 37th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA. Absolutely crushed the ball. Huge power numbers. Higher line drive rate, lower infield fly rate. Elite defense.

        Why are we in such a hurry to replace that with a guy who had a .239/.316/.336 line in AAA?

        • *2013, obviously.

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  35. This is how I feel when I think about losing Rasmus.

  36. It’s possible AA feels like he could get another cf to replace Rasmus so makes sense for him to see if he can turn him into a decent starter. Maybe he feels like if he can move Rasmus he could take a run at kemp depending on the price

  37. I like Rasmus more than most, but considering the situation A) has a very good season becomes a $100mil+ player and/or turns into a 1st rd pick when he walks B) Craps the bed and the Jays are stuck with letting him walk for nothing.

    Personally unless they are using him as a very key piece to get a legit #1/2 then I would take my chances and keep him for this season and take the pick if he cant be extended mid season (ala Encarnacion)… if they trade him for someone that will battle for a 3-5 slot then I will be very disappointed, there are plenty of them in the pipeline already.

    Dang it, its a tough call either way.

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