colbyhit

I’m not sure if he was just “hearing” this from Bob Elliott’s report, which I addressed last night, but here’s Joel Sherman of the New York Post in the vaguest of terms on Colby Rasmus:

It remains a smart move to consider on the Jays’ part, with the very cheap Anthony Gose already in the fold, and able to contribute enough with the glove and on the bases to keep his bat in the lineup, and with Rasmus staring at free agency a year from now, where another strong season– which is hardly a given– will push his price to astronomical, Ellsbury-like levels.

Colby did make mechanical adjustments over his first couple of years in Toronto, the culmination of which may have been his outstanding 2013 season, but the BABIP– oh, man, the BABIP. For his career, when he’s put the ball in play, Rasmus has hit .298 over 2600 plate appearances. However, in his two outstanding, four-plus win seasons in 2010 and 2013 the mark spiked, jumping to .354 and .356 in those years respectively.

I don’t know if you can quite call those proper outliers, given that we’re talking about two of his five full, big league seasons, but it’s a bit scary to think about where his bat ended up in the other three years, posting wRC+’s of 89, 90, and 83.

Last night, I saw the situation thusly:

Yep.

Meanwhile, Sherman adds this for us on Jeff Samardzija:

Wait… has nobody told Shark about the crazy prospects headed their way to Chicago in the next few years, or reminded him who is running the organization?

Anyway, the July stuff certainly does make sense, and makes it sound credible that Sherman suggests that the Cubs just aren’t hearing what they want to hear, but I still think it’s early– a point I kinda hammered on all day yesterday.

Things could change fast on the pitching market, though, as Jayson Stark lays this on us:

So… there’s that.

Comments (90)

  1. ‘Thusly’ is a word too seldom used.

  2. Really want the jays to land garza. Perfect #3 starter with #2 upside. As long as the price is not astronomical, jays have no excuse not to pursue this guy. Also, wouldnt have to give up rasmus or sanchez/stroman.

  3. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/can-colby-rasmus-survive-a-visit-from-the-babip-regression-monster/

    There’s a good link on Colby’s possible fortunes for next year.

  4. So if we dont line up a top end starter…..do we go for back end? or go with what we have? then look to upgrade line up?

    • Free agency.

      • sorry, should have made more clear

        if we fail to trade or Sign a FA top end Starter

        what options do we have for upgrades to the Line up?

    • Anthopolous said yesterday that they won’t acquire a 4 or 5 starter. he would rather use the cheaper in-house options, he has confidence in them.

      it seems that they’re gunning for a mid-rotation (or higher) starter or bust. and if they bust on the pitching market, like Gibbons suggested, they’ll focus on improving elsewhere.

      • Exactly, Stroman, Hutchison, Drabek, Happ, Rogers or Redmond should be able to match anything out there that would qualify as back end starters.

        • Which ones? There are not an infinite number of roster spots.

          • Id suggest probably start with the guys with no options then move on from there..just my logic though

          • there’s 40. and all of those guys, with the exception of Stroman, are already on the 40 man. and, i believe, all of those guys (except Redmond and Rogers) have minor league options remaining. you can throw Sean Nolin in there too. along with Rob Rasmussen, Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire and Mickey Storey.

            barring injuries I imagine Redmond and Rogers open on the MLB club or get dealt. the rest start in AAA, though the Buffalo rotation is going to be tricky to figure out. Stroman definitely has to go there, along with Nolin, Jenkins, Hutch, and Drabek. that’s 5 rotation spots and you still need to find a place for Rasmussen, McGuire and Romero (though maybe it’s time to switch him to the pen)

            • Re: Romero — doesn’t he have reverse splits, or did I just make that up in my head? I mean, I think his RP possibilities are limited, since he can’t LOOGY and he tends to suck in the first or second, then get better if he gets lucky and they hit his stuff hard but right at someone.

              RR is a sunk cost, IMHO.

              • Exactly right. But that’s why he could be a ROOGY. Jake McGee is a bullpen lefty who has better splits against righties than lefties. Romero in the pen would probably increase his velocity and his effectiveness against lefties too.

                You can’t just give up on Romero. $7.5 million is a lot of money. It’s about 5% of the Jays projected payroll. The Jays need to find a way to extract some value from him. Maybe Cecil’s journey will encourage Romero to adapt and embrace the possibility of a bullpen role.

  5. What if 2014 Colby is even better than 2013 Colby? Cletus is still relatively young and certainly has always had the upside and potential to be a star. Maybe he is starting to finally figure it out

  6. While nobody knows, IMO, Colby’s success of 2013 should continue.The changes in his routine and stance,made by him in 2013 and his further matuation both on and off the field,make me tend to think that 2011 and 2012 were the outlier years.

    • regardless of 2014, you know he’ll command a deal that at the Lowest is Beltre and at the top is Ellsbury. 100M is nowhere near out of the question. They’re either willing to pay it or they’re not. It’s actually a much simpler decision than most, because you can be fairly Certain about the cost to sign him beyond this year

  7. I’ll miss Colby and his Mulay.

    And I’ll never forget Dreadlocks Colby, and “I just combed my hair with a pork chop” Colby.

    You literally could grease cookie sheets with his hair most nights. Sigh. Colby…..

  8. Maybe the tweaks used on Colby’s swing could work for Gose? They both have that front leg kick and if memory serves Gose works from a bit of an upright stance too, doesn’t he?

    • I’d like to see what Kevin Seitzer could do with Gose. The approach he used in Kansas City might be ideal for Gose instead of the grip-it-and-rip-it approach of the former coaches, and Gose could let his speed take over to get more hits.

      • My advice to Gose would be to crowd the plate and lean into everything. Go up there with fucking goalie equipment on, set a season record for HBP, then steal 500 bases.

        Coz’ he sure as shit ain’t hitting his way on!

  9. Get the feeling that Colby has a year or less left with the Jays. Guess that’s where the allocation of resources lies ($).
    Still hoping for Ubaldo; the perfect fit of the price ain’t over inflated.

  10. I keep coming back to a Rasmus for Bailey deal. I know it’s probably not going to happen, but it really intrigues me, for both sides. I’d probably be okay with a move like that.

  11. Gose may be a reasonable replacement for Colby on the basepaths and in centre field, but I highly doubt he’ll bring the same intensity to Bob Bannerman’s commercials.

  12. Am I crazy for preferring Garza to Shark? I mean, he’s been worth more value every single year except for last year, and he’s shown he can be a 3 win pitcher, which Shark has never done. He’s only one year older and Shark only has one more year of team control.

    So basically, (assuming it’s a choice we have the opportunity of making) if you get Samardzija you’re trading great prospects for one cheap year of a pitcher who probably isn’t as good.

    The durability might be an issue, I guess. But he’s really only been hurt the past two years and the fact that he’s proven a high peak value and the ability to pitch in the AL East makes it kind of a no-brainer…

    • According to fangraphs, Shark was a 3 WAR picher in 2013 and a 2.8 pitcher in 2013.

      Garza was a 4.9 war pitcher in 2011 and 3.2 in 2008.

      Shark is younger and cheaper (in terms or salary) and has a lower HR/9%. I would take the Shark.

      • I prefer bbref because I don’t necessarily agree with a lot of the things that go into calculating FIP. Either way, the point stands I think

  13. Thanks for all the updates. These winter meetings are making me feel like a 10 year old at Christmas with the potential for all those presents in the air. Then I feel like a teenaged boy with blue-balls waiting for the Jays to make a trade already. Then I think like a middle aged man and wonder about the economic impact of spending a bunch of money on Lee, Hamels and so on. Then I realize I’m an old guy with a day off and nothing more important to do than to do than read DJF and check out the comments and wonder if its too early for a scotch. I’m enjoying all of it. Thanks aqain and carry on please.

  14. Rxpenskny and Jackson –> Rasmus –> top pitcher? good asset management.

    AA never gets the credit for picking JB, EE, CR, SS, BM off the trash heap and turning them into major assets

    He only catches shit when one doesn’t work

    • That’d be because JB and EE didn’t come by under Anthopoulos’ watch — Ricciardi picked them up. AA actually dropped EE at one point and lost him to the A’s before picking him back up again.

    • And hasn’t AA often been called a ninja for his stealthy moves over the years before the mega-deal with the Marlins? I’d call that “getting credit” for his moves.

    • SS had 30 saves in 2011 before being traded. Don’t think that’s a trash heap.

      You could argue the jury is still out on BM from a long term perspective.

      But Colby was a deft move for sure.

    • He doesn’t get credit for most of those because credit isn’t due… JB & EE were Ricciardi acquisitions & SS isn’t really a “major asset”.

    • Wow. Give credit where credit is due not blindly to AA.

      Rasmus was very bad until last year. Santos has been hurt almost his entire stint with the Jays. Morrow has been very inconsistent and League turned into a major asset for Seattle.

  15. I’m not convinced that Colby is always gonna be what he was last season. So that’s a trade I wouldn’t hate. I’d rather Colby than either of the top two prospects right now.

  16. Dan Duquette said on XM today that Garza’s medicals are “a mess”

    Kinda shitty thing for him to do, but I don’t want Garza.

  17. If the Jays want to trade Rasmus because of this:

    “Rasmus staring at free agency a year from now, where another strong season– which is hardly a given– will push his price to astronomical, Ellsbury-like levels”

    then we should be calling bullshit. The point that keeps getting driven home by the likes of Paul Beeston is “we’re not Tampa Bay. We can afford to retain our superstars when they need to be extended”. Well, let’s friggin’ do it when the time comes then!

    • That’s the big question.
      Depends on who does and how the evaluation is done.
      Has Colby figured it out and entering his prime or was 2013 an outlier?
      If he’s not traded, my guess would be that AA extends him in ST or waits till the AS break and does it then ( ala EE).

    • The point that keeps getting driven home is all talk and no action. Jose and EE were extended on very good team terms. The Jays have made no significant FA acquisition in recent memory excluding Cabrera on a one year deal. The Jays have operated exactly like the Rays minus taking on all the payroll and verts in the Marlins deal.

  18. I wouldn’t offer Colby Rasmus in a trade. AA should offer Gose and a relief pitcher or minor leaguer instead, that way you save Rasmus.

  19. Re: “If someone’s valuing Colby as 2013 Colby and not appreciating that 2012 or 2011 Colby could show up and be 2014 Colby, then you trade Colby”

    What about 2010 Colby?
    What about heading into his peak age 27 season.
    What about the LaRusa B.S. during 2011?
    What about still producing 23 HR in 2012 despite having a down year?

    Just trying to make the point that this isn’t just a guy who had a outlier year that will regress to what he truly is, there is more to it.

    • Yup.A lot more.
      Reports during last year had him backing off his after game routine.He changed his stance.In an interview at the beginning of 2013 he said he doesn’t like discussing his time with TLR.
      At his first ST with the Jays, he stated that he just played out the string in the previous Sept.

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