Few things are more Canadian than hand-wringing about teenagers playing hockey looking to our neighbours to the south for approval and reveling in it when they give us attention. It’s an understandable cultural tick, I guess, if a bit curious — I mean, we have only about three million fewer people than California, and I’m pretty sure they’re not ever like, “holy shit! The flyover states are paying attention to us!” — but I figure it’s worth indulging from time to time, especially when the things being said are as uplifting as they were over the weekend. For the most part, at least…

“The Jays are a leading candidate to sign either Santana or Jimenez”

Those words aren’t mine– they actually come from ol’ Kenny Ken Ken, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Mind you, he doesn’t say “the leader,” but that’s still pretty terrific. So too is the heading on his section of his piece about the club; a simple, “Be patient, Jays fans.”

The club, he writes, “still figure to acquire one and possibly two starting pitchers once the logjam caused by Tanaka starts to resolve.”

Well that sure would be fucking nice, eh? And, of course, it makes all the sense in the world, despite what the Chicken Littles, and the folks convinced that because the Jays have yet to make a free agent splash of such magnitude during the Anthopoulos era they’ll never do it, will tell you. They said the same stuff last year, don’t forget, about increasing the payroll, about adding top talent, and about moving away from the prospect-focussed asset acquisition mode the front office had been in since Alex took the job.

How quickly, in a thick fog of anxiety, we forget about the talk of the $150-million payroll figure the club is still well south of, or the $14-million dollars that surely must have been earmarked for the potential of Josh Johnson coming back on a qualifying offer, or Alex Anthopoulos unequivocally stating that the rotation has to get better.

Or… OK, nothing about this off-season has exactly been quick, but money is there, need is there, and the pitchers are still there on a badly stagnant market that’s waiting on Tanaka — himself quite possibly waiting on the New York Yankees and the verdict in the A-Rod case, which could drastically impact the payroll structure of one of his biggest suitors. In other words, Rosenthal is bang on that patience remains key.

Unfortunately, at other times in the piece he’s talking about a whole other level of patience– at least when he talks about any pitcher that the Jays may be looking to add in trade. The club, he says, “remains involved in trade discussions for Samardzija and other starting pitchers,” however, “the Jays need not rush into anything. Samardzija still might be available in spring training or July. And other possibilities could arise; some team is bound to disappoint and trade off veterans, the way the White Sox did with Jake Peavy last season.”

He latter suggest that “the Jays need to weigh the current price for Samardzija against what it will take to acquire other starters in spring training or after the season begins. The longer they wait, the better they can assess their prospects as well.”

He’s entirely right, and I like the idea of actually looking beyond the current logjam, but… uh… let’s actually maybe get someone first.


Paul Hoynes On Ubaldo’s Price

Here’s a smaller item that I’d normally include at the bottom, but it’s relevant to the Rosenthal stuff, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer wrote in a recent mail bag about what it’s going to take to get Ubaldo Jimenez signed, and why it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be back with the Clevelands next year.

Hey, Hoynsie: Where does Ubaldo Jimenez go?– Ron Koelher, Akron.

Hey, Ron: Depending on who signs Masahiro Tanaka, I think Jimenez could sign with Toronto, the Yankees or Arizona. I still think it’s a long shot that he’ll return to the Indians.

The last thing I heard, is that he wanted $17 million to $20 million per year over a four-year deal. That’s not going to happen in Cleveland.

Gee whiz! That would put the Jays a little beyond their reported budget, but I’m sure they could find a way to squeeze him in. And hey! Alex wouldn’t even have to come up with an excuse for why he brok his own policy about contract length that everybody dumbly believes is somehow significant (and conveniently forgets that he’s basically admitted that it doesn’t really even exist at all anyway).

One wonders, if Hoynes’s information is anywhere close to legit, why the Jays wouldn’t have jumped all over this already, but ever the optimist that I am, I suspect the answer is quite simple: he wants Tanaka.

I should probably do an Ubaldo-or-Santana post at some point, huh?


Mike Petriello In Praise Of Edwin

“If you think about the five most dangerous hitters in baseball (as ranked by wOBA) over the past two years, you’ll certainly come up with the top two (Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout) pretty easily,” writes Mike Petriello in a cockle-warming piece at (Insider only). “The No. 3 (Joey Votto) and No. 4 (Andrew McCutchen) bats probably wouldn’t be too difficult to discern either. But which player would round out the top five: Robinson Cano, Buster Posey, Giancarlo Stanton?”

The answer, we’re informed, is Edwin Encarnacion, who Petriello declares baseball’s most unheralded player.

Uh… I can buy that.

Since the turn of the century, just five other players have done what Encarnacion accomplished in 2013, which is to hit at least 36 homers while striking out fewer than 62 times. Two of those players – Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols – rank among the best who have ever played, and two others – Todd Helton and Gary Sheffield – will have strong Hall of Fame cases to make when they become eligible. Only six qualified hitters struck out at a lower clip than Encarnacion did last year, and they were mostly Marco Scutaro types, not power hitters, with none coming within 100 points of Encarnacion’s .534 slugging percentage.

If you take that further, looking only at power hitters who know how to take a walk without piling up strikeouts, you’ll find Encarnacion’s name nearly alone at the top of the peak. Over the past two years, 28 hitters displayed an ISO of at least .200, and just five from that group walked at least 13 percent of the time; of those five, only Encarnacion and Votto walked more than they struck out. When you’re piling up free passes, not whiffing and showing immense power, you’re usually doing something right.

Holy fucking awesome. EdwinTheBest.

He goes on, and it’s awesome, but you’ll have to pay for it to see the rest.


Tony Rasmus Causes (Then Un-Causes) A Stir

Colby Rasmus has been removed from the Jays’ upcoming Winter Tour, apparently, and as happens with all things Colby, some intrepid person took to the internet to ask ol’ Tony Rasmus about it.

“When I first read he was on it I was shocked to be honest. I don’t think they told him about it till the last minute,” he explained in a tweet, noting that his impression was that Colby’s January had been booked up for a long time, adding, ”he told me this week that he was planning on heading to Dunedin the first of February to get a head start on Spring Training.”

Then things got a little interesting:

Cue panic! Even though, y’know, that seems like a ridiculously banal courtesy involving a possibility that we all know is there, not to mention miles away from anything like “we’re definitely going to trade you.”

Totally meaningless, in other words. But also: un-cue panic.

So… yeah, still meaningless.


Nick Cafardo On The Jays

Lastly, I’m not opposed to hammering on Nick Cafardo, particularly given his penchant for saying things I like to characterize as “insane,” but I’ll refrain from that when it comes to his latest for the Boston Globe. That’s not to say there aren’t parts of what he’s written that probably warrant it, but he kicks off his Sunday post this week with a good bit of rumbling about the Jays. Much of it we’ve heard before, or insufferably lived through — the impossibly high and ultimately failed expectations of 2013, the near total lack of improvement so far this winter — but there are definitely at least a couple items worth noting.

For one, it looks like the suspicions of many were correct with regard to a deal that reportedly fell apart for the club earlier in the off-season:

Anthopoulos has tried to make things happen with trade proposals, including a recent Sergio Santos/Brett Anderson swap with the Oakland A’s, but it never materialized.

OK, so he doesn’t say that it was a failed medical that caused the deal to unravel, which technically means this could have been a different trade altogether, and Santos was almost moved in another trade for a starter (which involved Texas and a third team and fell apart because a player involved didn’t pass his physical). But… come on.

And as much as people will groan at the thought of the Jays once again pursuing damaged goods, it’s actually a damn smart move by the club — high end talent simply doesn’t come around much, especially on the cheap, damaged goods or not — and made better by the fact that they didn’t actually go through with it once the doctors got involved.

Y’know, assuming this is all the same deal… which I totally am.

In the same piece Cafardo gives us this:

In trying to rebuild, it’s tougher for the Jays because while they’re in a great city, players would rather sign with a team based in the United States, for various reasons. Many players don’t understand how good it is to play there until they actually get there and the team is strong.

Money can be a pretty compelling reason to the contrary, of course, but he’s not wrong– not about the fact that geography is a bit of a hindrance, or at least an obstacle needing to be pushed aside with bags of money, and not about the fact that once players do come here, it turns out they really quite like it. The Rasmus stuff in the previous item reminded me of that, as it definitely seems that Colby likes it here (even if his father talks about him being prepared for the realities of the business– or, y’know, if he gets shunned by his teammates for a tough slide), and we’ve heard the same exact thing about Mark Buehrle as well.

Or, at least, I’ve heard that. Can’t remember if I posted about it. I think it was Jeff Blair who first suggested it, but I honestly can’t remember, and what am I gonna do, go look it up? Point is: I think he’s right that guys like being here once they get to know it, but are initially wary. Total newsflash, eh?

Comments (156)

  1. question: why would we get excited about Santana – would he not command no2 money for a no4 starter?

    • Yup get tanaka instead
      Which is probably aa s preference

    • Top 25 in baseball in rWAR among starters last year, and top 40 in fWAR last year, and has made 30 starts in eight of the last nine seasons (the year he missed he made 26 all told) and he’s a number four?

      He’s not my favourite either– was garbage in 2012 and hasn’t often been as good as last year– but this attitude is utter bullshit.

      • #1 starters aren’t going to hit the open market much anymore, that’s the new reality. With all the TV revenue teams in all markets are seeing now, true aces are getting locked up young. It means we should have no real compunction with paying a guy like Ubaldo $17 million per; if the Jays don’t like that idea going forward, they need to make sure to scout well and draft future aces (easy peasy, amiright?) But still, that needs to be the plan, most likely – draft your #1-#3 starters and sign the back-end guys.

        But, it IS pretty cool if you think about it that AA hasn’t jumped all over the possibility of signing Ubaldo for 4 years in the $68-$80 million range, because that’s not bad at all. The optimist in me also indicates that he may be thinking “I’d rather spend $100 million and get a guy that seems to be a consensus #1, as opposed to spending $75 million for a #3.” OPTIMISM!

      • I’m just against paying that kind of money for a homer-prone pitcher of any quality in our park. You gotta play to your strengths and while Ubaldo can go walk crazy, he doesn’t have much of a problem with the long-ball, which can really hurt us.

    • Well, Ubaldo wants #1 money and would be a #2 or lower on any good rotation. If they’re going to go the FA route, this is how it is.

      • what are you basing your definition #1 money on? Ubaldo’s rumored asking price is $17-$20 million AAV. that’s fair value for what he’s done in his career and considering the market. Ubaldo has been about a 2.5 win pitcher in his career, sometimes much better, sometimes worse. in today’s free agent market 2.5 wins equals about $17.5 million AAV. Ubaldo deserves that.

        considering Buerhle is coming off the books soon, the Jays should try and mimic that contract with Ubaldo to lure him to Toronto – backload it so they pay low AAV in the first few years and can get him under the 2014 budget and then pay high AAV when they have payroll flexibility in a couple years.

        • Not to be a pedantic fuck, but AAV is average annual value, so it doesn’t go up and down over the life of the contract. But yes, backloading it so that it’s a lower salary at first and a higher salary when other guys are coming off the books makes sense.

          • yeah.. sorry right… but glad you got the point despite that brainfart.

            Buerhle’s contract went $6, $11, then goes $18 and $19 million for $14.5 million AAV. so considering Buerhle’s contract is off the books in two years i think the Jays could keep that basic structure for Ubaldo but add about $3 million a year to that plus one more year on the contract (somewhere around $87.5 over 5 years) and have a real shot at Jimenez and make it work for their budget.

        • $20m puts him in the top ten earners at his position. I don’t think he gets that, but those are the stakes here. Some of those guys are overpaid IMO, even when they signed their deals (Lincecum, Hamels), but that is quite clearly #1 money. Maybe some can stomach that, but that’s a pretty big risk.

          • $17.5 million AAV on the free market is most definitely not #1 starter territory anymore. it’s what #1s were getting 4 years ago… incidentally when Ubaldo was an Ace. but now $17.5 million is not ace value, not even close: Felix’s and Verlander’s team extensions set the bar for #1 money – it’s something like $25-$28 million but that’s going up soon. because unless his arm falls off Max Scherzer’s free agent deal next offseason is going to blow past those. and Kershaw’s extension will probably top that too.

            and for the record, giving Ubaldo that would not make him a top 10 earner at his position. it would put him something like tied for 12th with Lincecum, and just ahead of Peavy.

            whether or not it’s smart or not to give Ubaldo that much money is another question. where the Blue Jays are on the win curve, i think it makes sense to go for him. if they don’t, then they might as well blow up the team and start the rebuild again.

          • You are completely, objectively wrong if you think you can just equate what other aces make (who signed extensions) with what will be garnered on the FA market.

  2. Extend Edwin! Wait, jays have him until ’16? That’ll do.

  3. I love this city and team but the Sky Dome turns ground balls into base hits and fly balls into home runs, not to mention playing the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays 18 times each per year. Oh and you’re more likely to get injured or worn down more quickly on the turf.

    Seems like many take it personally when pitchers don’t want to come here. but how much of a premium would it take to go to a place that makes your performance look (considerably?) worse than it is.

    • with that logic though, shouldn’t there be a long line of hitters waiting for their chance to get to toronto and put in career numbers?

      • Yuniesky wants to.

        • Goins > Yuniesky

          • Yeah, pretty much. Izturis too.

            • i have heard people say Izzy > Goins

              maybe a few years ago, but i feel Izzy will remain a bench player, shame really, cause he just seems like a great guy, you know that vet club house guy that can just brighten up a room.

              Izzy was a good pick up by AA i think, but from what we have on the team “right now”….Goins is the only real option we have. And he is young, so maybe he can find a few more singles and walks this year. Hell, his first career HR was off a LHP….not that that means anything.

          • I’ve definitely wondered about Yuniesky given the whole hole-at-2B thing. But please, God, no. Kawasaki’s a better hitter.

  4. Is the reason the Jays haven’t signed the FA’s, is because they are after Tanaka? Or is it because the FA’s are rejecting offers until Tanaka signs,thus increasing their own worth?
    AA may have wanted to sign one of them but everybody is waiting for the market to be set.

    • Hence my use of qualifiers. Which isn’t to say that I’m not still right.

      • Hence my use of question marks.Which isn’t to say that I’m still not right.
        It’s not a contest. Just presenting another point of view.

        • Yeah… I’m familiar with you.

          • Hmm ,
            The name looks familiar.I’m trying to place the face.Didn’t we meet at the last DJF soiree?
            Regardless,you may be correct in the assumption.

            • I’d listen to a podcast where you two alternate between arguing about the validity of clubhouse chemistry and stoeten coming up with new ways to (correctly) call you wrong and stupid.

              • @ Oh Beepy

                While we’re at it, we could do a follow up on a manger’s influence on team performance.
                But then again the debate would be wasted on you.You already have your feeble mind made up and know everything there is know.
                Too bad it’ll never happen.
                You coulda learned something and increased your enjoyment of the game.

                • I always love watching two people argue where both are convinced the problem is the other isn’t being open minded.

                  • Glad to oblige,David.
                    I guess the one of us who has played,coached,managed,umpired,ran baseball leagues,listened and conversed to people with have played the game professionally,who has been in clubhouses.weighed both sides of the conversation, might have an informed opinion.
                    I”ve learned a lot from DJF and the commenters.I’ve also learned a lot from the rest of the people in baseball. In between all that, I consider the counter arguments.
                    I’ve even provided proof to back up those opinions.
                    It is what it is.

                    • I played college baseball, played with guys that got drafted, no one that ever made it, but if i suggest that gives me any kind of inside knowledge people lose their minds… i’ve learned to just let it go.

    • Could be both. With Tanaka setting the market they could say “hey he’s never thrown a pitch in the majors check out my guy’s record, pay us accordingly”. Also there’s the draft pick compensation tied to Jimezez and Santana which is slowing things down.

  5. Nice too see Rosenthal’s still flinging shit at the wall.

  6. I’m happy to see rumblings about starting pitching, but… is somebody gonna fix second base?

    • Yeah, Ryan Goins is.

      I wish the Jays had never traded John MacDonald and that other guy for Kelly Johnson.

    • Who is to say if the Jays go the free agent route for the pitchers they don’t turn around and trade the excess depth for someone like Franklin? To me that’s the beauty about paying instead of trading, it just gives you more ammo to do other things down the road.

      I’d be curious to see if the Jays have thoughts about signing someone like Drew for a year if he can’t get the big multi-year deal that he wants and move him to second. All they would have to do is promise him they won’t offer him a qualifying offer after the season. A season in the dome should do wonders for his offensive numbers.

      • Franklin or Ackley wouldnt cost that much I think. Maybe they can trade someone like gose or nolin for one of them.

      • Auckley and Franklin haven’t been very good in their MLB careers. They are not saviours at all and Auckley may carry a fairly hefty price tag given his pedigree and versatility.

        Why are Jays fans so down on Phillips? If AA manages to get one or two decent SP then why not flip Happ and Rogers (and some likely) in some three way to get Phillips and only add a few million to payroll? (If he waives no trade). All star 4 of past 5 seasons and entire careers putting up way better numbers than either Auckey or Franklin fits right in with veteran core. Not to mention if rumours are true Bailey may be available and be front of rotation arm Jays are seeking.

        • You can’t possibly believe that Happ and Rogers would be a reasonable price to pay for Brandon Philips, can you? A reasonable price would be something like Rasmus AND Sanchez. Throw Bailey in there, and you’re probably talking about having to include a Hutchison type.

          • Rasmus is far more valuable than Phillips.

          • Reds don’t need SP so would need to be a three way Jays trade Happ, Rogers plus prospects (not Sanchez) to a third team to get someone Reds want for Phillips. Predicated on Jays signing FA SP or two and Phillips waiving no trade clause.

            Yanks turned down Gardner for Phillips so seems like he could be had at a bargain IMO. Rasmus is more valuable than Gardner arguably. A Bailey and Phillips trade could mean the three way thing plus Rasmus for both?

            Fun to speculate but speculation none the less.

    • Yeah, AA really needs to fix that. No excuse for a team with contending aspirations to be starting ryan goins at 2b.

    • If we get two good pitchers it shouldn’t matter who is at the keystone as long as he can field.

      Pitching is the only priority. If they don’t get that it won’t matter if they put Ryne Sandberg at two.

      • Not really known for his glove, that Sandberg.

        Also, not all terrible hitters are created equal. The idea that this guy can hit in the big leagues against LHP is ridiculous. Even against RHP its a stretch.

        • Perhaps I’m setting myself up to look like an asshole … nor is it really relevant to the conversation … but are we talking about the same Ryne Sandberg … he of the nine straight Gold Gloves and .989 fielding percentage … the major league record at second base?

        • I get what you’re saying, my point is that Pitching should be the only concern right now, if that’s not addressed then it doesn’t matter who plays second.

        • @Stoeten: According to Rfield (+60 career) and dWAR (+12.8 career) over at BB-Ref, and FRAA (+98.6) over at Baseball Prospectus, he was definitely above average for his career. Maybe not nine gold gloves type above average, but you know those voters – they get stuck in a groove sometimes – but he was above average. Maybe you have other stats that show otherwise, but I can’t think of any others off the top of my head.

  7. Where does this leave me??? I am a STARTER GODDAMMNIT!

  8. Me too!

  9. Me three!!!

  10. Nice article Andrew, I was wondering if you have any info on the coming years international market. The Yankees have publicly stated that they plan to destroy the cap to sign a bunch of guys because the penalty (I believe a forfeit of next years signings) is insignificant because this crop is so much better. AA has already made a trade to increase his international pool, I’m wondering if he as well will be a big player for the international guys.

    • I’ve heard this is a good crop, but I don’t know if that’s something they’re going to do– especially with the Yankees scaring teams off by saying they’re going to spend so much.

    • The trade was for money that has to be spent on the 2013 crop of players.

      As for the Yankees plan, I hope the Jays do the same thing or something close to it. For the Yankees it’s really their only avenue left to try and reinvigorate their farm system in a timely manner short of selling off their players for prospects.

  11. Me four?

  12. hey I deserve the #5 spot, I did good, remember??

  13. Wasn’t funny the first time.

  14. Remeber when I started 16 games, ya that was funny.

  15. Hey, I was a “feel-good story of 2013″, according to

  16. Still not funny.

  17. Rotation depth a good starting point for Blue Jays
    General manager Anthopoulos seeking frontline starter to complement pieces in place

  18. I still fervently believe that the narrative that players avoid signing in Toronto is exactly that; a narrative based entirely on anecdotal evidence and a failure to distinguish correlation and causation.

    With the exception of a Carlos Beltran type who has already made his millions and is going ring chasing, I’ve never seen a player in his prime take less money to play in a premium market. The fact that the Jays seldom sign a premium free agent is more related to the fact that we don’t often chase premium free agents than anything else.

    Do players want to be traded here? Absolutely not. But they know how to read bottom lines. They’ll come if we offer them enough. Burnett did, and he was pretty much the avatar of people we assume wouldn’t come here.

    • I think you are missing the point a little. The problem is that if all else is equal (ceteris paribus), then they likely choose the American team. This means that the Jays have to make things not equal in order to lure a player to the city.

      • See, but all things are never equal. It’s not like everyone puts some number in a hat and the player picks whichever offer is best. It’s a negotiation – usually involving 2 or 3 teams and the player’s agent. Whichever team offers the biggest contract lands the player. That’s why Robinson Cano is a Mariner, Prince Fielder is (well, was) a Tiger, Josh Hamilton is an Angel, etc. Josh Hamilton probably doesn’t give two shits whether he works 100 days a year in LA or Texas or Mars so long as the Martians are paying him an extra couple million for his troubles.

        I get what you’re saying and I agree in principle. But the actual mechanics of baseball contract negotiations make that sort of scenario preposterously rare (Beltran was the only one I could come up with). If the Jays want a player they’ll do what every other team in the league does to get players – offer him a contract worth more money than he has been offered or reasonably expects to be offered by another team. That’s it.

        • According to Beeston, Jays offered Beltran more than he got
          They were told he did not want to play on turf.

          When they inquired on Crawford, they were told the same thing.

          Don’t underestimate how big a negative factor the turf can be
          when trying to attract a free agent with choices.

          • Opps…the Beltran comment relates to when he signed in St. Louis.
            Not his more recent Yankee contract.

    • It’s a little more than a narrative if AA and Beeston believe it.

  19. If AA signs both of those guys I’m officially removing his penis from my mouth

  20. I know he isn’t exactly exciting, but I always wonder why chad jenkins never even gets mentioned as pitching depth/6th starter? In last years shit show of spot starters, he only got 3 starts, and all three times he pitched 5 innings and gave up 3 earned runs. Why didn’t he get more starts last year?

    • mistake: 2 earmed runs each time

    • Because he is not particularly great and is down the depth chart below at least the following: Redmond, Hutch, Drabek, McGowan, Stroman, Happ. He’s probably ahead of Romero at this point.

      • RR might just turn it around and become a good depth peace the sub 3 era might never happen again, but he has good stuff.

        is RR out of options, im sure i have asked, and now that he cleared the 40man he can stay in AAA without options? yes?

        • The guys’ tried just about everything short of resurrecting Mel Queen. IMHO he’ll be in the minors the last cheque arrives.

      • I know he’s not hot shit, but with all the grasping for starters they did last season i was shocked when he didn’t get more starts than 3, especially seeing as he seemed consistently OK, he wouldve been or 3rd starter if he kept up a 3.6 era

  21. I know this might be stretching it a bit, but I wonder how much the asking price for guys like Samardzija will change once the big free agents sign. If the Jays have some kind of final offer on the table but the Cubs are looking to get more from other clubs, would they be more inclined to look at the Jays offer once Tanaka, Santana, Jimenez and Garza have all been signed and their teams are no longer looking to add Samardzija?

    Having said that, I’m sure the Cubs have an asking price they’re looking for and they aren’t going to take back a mediocre return just because there aren’t as many suitors.

    • When talking about the Price of SP, and asking the Price for a trade of a mid to top lvl pitcher, you have to look at what teams are already paying (cept for the NATs Tigers Trade).

      With it being so hard to replace a high end starter after you trade him, your going to ask for a young arm that can replace that Pitcher down the road, maybe even two. Plus some other stuff just incase you fail to turn one of those young guys into a MLB starter. So the reports that the Cubs are asking Stro and Sanchez seem right in line with what anyone would ask for……cept for the Tigers….god that burns.

      His price may fall, but unlikely as the price for SP just seems to go up every year…..would anyone have been happy paying 14m for JJ right now? hell, even 10m?

      • Was the capitalization of the first letter in price in your first paragraph a nudge toward a particular SP?

        • he is still in TB right? bet he sets the trade market….there is him, and then everyone else when talking trades for SP, unless the rumor that the Phils are looking to dump two highly paid and just simply fucking awesome pitchers……are true…..which, if they are, and we dont get either, they best stay the fuck out of the AL East lol

    • As you said yourself in your last sentence, I doubt they move him right now short of their huge asking price. Again there’s no need to. As for Price, it wouldn’t surprise me if they hold onto him to start the year. It might affect their return a little bit but it gives them more time to see where they are at come the All-Star break and for other teams to become desperate for pitching.

  22. Somewhat off the subject but wouldn’t a Rasmus reality show be fucking awesome.
    Tony never met a microphone he didn’t like, the boys rock 80′s flow, love driving trucks in the mud, hunting and beers.

    Like seriously, they’d kill that Duck show, Kardasholes and all the competition.
    I don’t watch much reality TV but I’d make an acceptation for that.

  23. Would Rasmus get you a good 2B back?

    I think Gose was taking much better at bats near the end of this year. And his speed and defense are great.

    I’d rather see Gose + a good 2B, than Rasmus + Goins.

    • I agree. Colby is going to get expensive very quickly. I have always liked Gose and he looked great last fall. And with Rajai gone who do we have to terrorize the bathpaths?

      What about Sierra? He can’t play CF… Does not seem like a good bench candidate… Trade him for a sack of baseballs?

    • Yanks turned down Gardner (FA next year) for Phillips. Rasmus for Phillips would likely fly if he waived no trade to Toronto? Phillips has been an all star 4 of past 5 years.

    • A plus/plus defender-CF’er that can hit, is much harder to find then a good second basemen. You’d have 29 other GM’s pissing all over themselves to make this trade with you.

      It would be a big mistake unless the second basemen was Cano or Pedroia.

      • Who are all these good second basemen that are so easy to find? Plus Plus defender second baseman that can hit are pretty rare too.

        Maybe you get a little more than Phillips for Rasmus agreed but if you figure Gose is better hitter than Goins and comparable defence then it would make the Jays team better?

        • My comment was for Sons.
          But to your comment, finding a decent second basemen is usually much easier. This year, or more to the point, at this moment, second base is unusually thin. This could all change in 3 months when the current strong crop of second base prospects throughout the league hit spring training. Some guys will undoubtedly push out the incumbent and there will be cuts or vets available through trade. I’d much rather start the year with any combo of Saki/Goins/Izturis then trade a rare commodity in Colby for a league average second basemen.

          Guys like Wong, Boegarts, Flores, Alcantara, Seager, Guerrero, Owings are all on the cusp and could push out some useful vets.

          Then there’s the 2 Cubans that just became available Aldemys Diaz and Erisbel Arruebarruena.

          Then there’s the guys who get beat out at SS or can’t stick at the position.

          Point is, there usually are lots of good options and just because there isn’t at this precise moment I don’t think you should waste an asset like Colby to get one with a bad contract or is league average.

          • This makes sense Smasher. The thing that doesn’t make sense (don’t know if you’ve said this yourself or not) is the idea of Stephen Drew at 2nd. The guy’s not going to slide over.

          • Figured response was to sons. Phillips is potential real life example of what he was proposing and Rasmus would get him it seems. Phillips isn’t league average or on a bad contract IMO. 12M / year pretty reasonable for a perennial all star. Does he get a bad rap because of his bad image? Maybe is a bargain because of that too? Look at the numbers throughout his whole career. Was hurt in June last year in second half so maybe that is a factor – OPS over 800 before wrist injury and played through it rest of the year.

            I think if you looked around the league over the years and compared the hitting of 2B and CF by the stats you would find as many or more good hitting CF than 2B.

            • To smasher and everyone answering: yes I realize Rasmus is a great asset at CF, with his bat and with a draft pick sure to come for him (or an extension). But that makes him a sell high candidate. And Gose is just as good in the field and better on the bases (and even costs 5-6M less). The bat is obviously way worse but surely has some upside.

              So for a step down in batting, if we could get an all-star type 2B that is under contract for a year or two more than Rasmus, why not do it?

              • I was initially on board with trading Rasmus, but I’m now in the camp that I think it would create a pretty big hole in the batting lineup. Right now they have two LH RHP mashers in Lind and Rasmus. Without Rasmus, they’re leaning pretty heavily on Lind from the left side.

              • The gap between Rasmus and Gose in hitting is not a step sons. It’s a fucking canyon at this point.

  24. Thank God the Anderson for Santos deal fell through. Are you kidding us with this, “it’s actually a damn smart move by the club”? High risk/reward is not working for AA – he tried it with recent 1st rounders (they didn’t sign), he tried it with JJ and it failed horribly. If Jays lower farm prospects work out as projected (2017/2018), and Stroman + Sanchez become MLB SP then AA must move his timelines, which means Jays must build for 2015 with Reyes, Lawrie, Rasmus, EE as core – assume Morrow and Buehrle won’t be around. Hope Hutchison and Drabek make something of their careers. Sick of AA flying without insurance.

  25. Hmm

  26. Would you do a Rasmus for Bailey deal?

    • Seems like a good move for Jays? Especially if there could be a sign and trade. Not sure reds would do it but it is a fit they need a CF and have good SP.

    • No but only because I think we would have a better shot at extending him and don’t really see Gose as a starter. CFer’s that can hit and field are harder to find than good starters IMO.

  27. People seem to disagree, but it seemed obvious to me that the defense last year made the pitching look worse than it was, inflated stats. The pitching was still bad though, and needs to be improved, but so does the D. Ackley strikes me as a good target because we have a pretty good record of offensive reclamation projects and he could provide backup CF which makes Gose easier to trade if need be.

    I could live with signing Jimenez and holding out on trades to see if prices fall. If you decide in July that you absolutely still want a SP upgrade, but everyone is still asking the world, there are still better options than Shark.

    • Prices go up at deadline? More teams seem to be buyers than sellers at deadline and many teams know they are out before season (Cubs, Brewers). Maybe better market wise to do a trade before season but after FA are signed and get the guy the whole year for similar price as at the deadline – especially when trading prospects?

  28. Stoeten, how about a Santana vs. Jimenez vs. Tanaka post. Not knowing as much about Tanaka shouldn’t be a hindrance to putting him in there, as the comparison will include expected cost (and opportunity cost?), which is extremely relevant.

  29. Its amazing the amount of praise Ryan Goins gets for a two week hot start followed by three weeks of shitting the bed. People get the warm and fuzzies thinking about those two weeks when he had a .300 next to his name or something.

    • Just the glove.

      He has a decent swing and an idea at the plate, but I know he’s mostly overmatched at the plate.

    • And with him hitting well for 2 weeks and shitting the bed for 3 weeks, he still managed 2.5 more fWAR than Izturis did. Now, I don’t expect Izturis to be that bad again, and I don’t expect Goins to really be much more than a replacement-level player, but he’s really the best option the Jays currently have.

      • Do you know how infinitesimal 5 weeks of defensive data is? We basically know nothing about what his defense will be over a full season in the big leagues. We ‘think’ he has a glove. We thought Russ Adams had a glove too.

        • Do you know how infinitesimal 5 weeks of defensive data is?

          And yet here you are, talking about Goins’ 2 weeks of a decent bat and 3 weeks of shitting the bed.

          I’m fully aware of small sample sizes. I’m also familiar with Izturis putting up a -2.1 fWAR in a much bigger sample size.

  30. Besides the obvious trade candidates in Price and Samardzija, what else is out there that the Jays would benefit from? Ogando was my first thought, but he lost almost 3mph last year on his fastball, and was injured twice. I thought Drew Pomeranz, but his numbers are truly awful with the Rockies (quelle surprise). Cliff Lee? Meh.

    Not sure what else is out there.

    • @EP: Drew Pomeranz is an Athletic, and they just gave up Brett Anderson and cash to get him, so I don’t think he’s going anywhere. I think he’ll enjoy the switch from Coors Field to the dilapadated O.Co Coliseum. That’s where HR balls go to die. Just ask Bartolo Colon.

  31. Why can’t this team or better yet ownership be in on Tanaka? That would be making a free agent splash. Not these scrubs in the title of the post that are destined to be bottom of the rotation starters.

    • If course they can be “in” on him. But being in doesn’t mean you automatically land the guy.

      • We as Jays fans should expect the team and cheap ass ownership to pony up once a fucking decade for a big name player. It’s not too much to ask.

        Right now I see Jays fans being content with signing free agent scrubs that won’t make much of a difference to this teams success.

        • It really doesn’t have to be an FA for it to be considered “ponying up” by ownership. Did you miss last winter when those “cheap ass owners” “ponied up” for a “big name player” called Reyes, and to a lesser extent Buehrle/Dickey/Johnson?

          How can fans possibly continue to call an ownership group with a team payroll approaching $150 million cheap?

        • It’s just that simple eh? Offer contract, players signs contract. No need to worry about the 29 other teams also trying to do the same thing.

  32. We know you’re way to fucking cool to watch Hockey, no need to remind us.

  33. I know it’s unrelated but i’m pretty pumped for the draft.
    I dont recall the jays drafting this high in a while and one solid draft year could change everything.

  34. Stoeten.

    Your replies make you look like a prick.

    Don’t become a Wilner for crisssakes. Doesn’t mean that you can’t keep it spicy around here. It’s like you have a nasty pack of hemmeroids or something.

    Try watching The Golden Girls.

  35. I would rather through 25M a year at Tanaka then 17-20M a year at Santana or Jimenez.

    Dave Cameron thinks Paul Maholm would be a good fit for the Jays but his story is behind a paywall.

  36. SO Chapman has an option, I believe a player option for like $5 million next year. Huge hypothetical, say you are able to sign chapman. whether it be the Jays or any other team…do you convert him to a starter? He throws a fastball and slider but has a hint of a changeup….if AA got a hold of him would he try to convert him? curious

  37. What’s the source in the Yuni Betancourt stuff that just popped up on the score mobile app? Cuz, uh, fuck that idea.

    • people just trying to fill team holes with ideas. The last i heard he was going to KC, which is just crazy, cause he sucks, but go KC.

  38. In 1992 we didn’t have to overpay to get premium players. They wanted to come here. If the team starts winning or at least being competitive, I think you’ll see a change in the kind of players who will come. However it’s a nasty little Catch 22 situation as of right now.

    I don’t want them to sign anyone unless it’s Tanaka. We did enough last off-season for 3 off-seasons. I’d much much rather wait for trades in-season. I’m probably the lone voice in the desert here, but we have what could be decent starting pitching already. And Drabek and Hutchinson are due to come back. I really would like to see what we have before AA hauls out his chequebook again. If what we have is crap, starting pitching is gonna cost us dear in a trade. But if what we have is crap we won’t be competing anyway, so we can wait for next season.

  39. Stoeten: Looking forward to the free agent pitcher posts. Bring em on before the dominoes start falling.

  40. I (@CashGameND) made the blog! Wooohooo!

    Follow you every single day Stoeten keep up the great work. Reason I was even tweeting mr Rasmus was because jaysjournal had a post stating “blue jays told Rasmus to prepare for trade” and based on his original tweet I wasn’t quite buying it 100%. Figured I’d ask since he tweets 100x a day and sure enough he’s responded to me 3 times!

    Keep up the great work Stoeten!

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