colbyyell

I don’t want to get too Colby-centric today, but there has been some discussion on the post about his father’s entirely innocuous comments regarding not whether or not the Jays will trade or extend Rasmus, but whether or not they should. So let’s have a few more quick thoughts on the subject, and jump right into it with this [slightly altered] comment from yours truly:

Similar to Johnson last spring, not a lot of sense in paying for the previous season without seeing if it all works again this year. Yes, they went for it with Bautista based on not a lot of data (which we didn’t agree with around here at the time, though obviously that’s worked out swimmingly), but they obviously believed in the mechanical change. Maybe they think the same with Colby, but I have my doubts. His two best seasons are driven by some pretty big BABIP outliers, and it’s probably not a good idea paying him for BABIP unless he’s doing something different they think will make it sustainable. And while he did make mechanical changes last year — as he’s done almost constantly since he’s been here, seemingly — that’s a little hard to buy. Especially when they don’t have to, or when they can trade him to a team that maybe does, or when they can feel pretty good about either letting him play his way off the team or them getting a pick for him when he walks.

I mean, right now the difference between him and Gose is worth the difference between their salaries, I think, but when Gose is still making league minimum-ish, with a floor of something on the order of 1 WAR thanks to defence alone (maybe higher), and keeping Rasmus means investing $75-million that can’t be invested elsewhere, you’ve got to be really, really certain of him to pull that trigger.

A couple things here:

First, maybe they do believe in the mechanical changes, and I might be able to even give them the benefit of the doubt if they did. In his years in the wilderness his ground ball rate spiked to about 3.0 to 5.5 percentage points above where it was in his excellent seasons of 2010 and 2013. In 2011 that spike came at the expense of his line drive rate, while in 2012 it came at the expense of his fly ball rate. It’s hard to carve a great narrative out of such a mess, except to maybe suggest that what we’re seeing is the result of the tinkering that Rasmus was constantly doing before he landed on the sell-out-for-power, fewer swings/less contact approach that worked so well in 2013, and could conceivably have helped drive his BABIP through better contact — though that can hardly be said to be definitively the case. I don’t want to turn this into a research project, so I’ll just say that, personally, I’d want to see a whole lot more success with the approach. However, if the Jays really believed, and were really as afraid of Gose as some are, there’s a case to be made for getting ahead of the market and getting him locked up.

I wouldn’t, even though I can’t deny that the second thing to reconsider about my comment is the fact that I might be overstating Gose’s floor. The Oliver projection system has him at exactly replacement level, based on 600 plate appearances in 2014, though it’s certainly possible that’s in part due to a misreading of his defence — he ranks 71st in defensive value among the centre fielders projected, slightly behind Rasmus. Offensively, it’s somehow even uglier, and while projections are hardly even the be-all end-all, I can conceded that in absolute terms, you probably have to set the floor a little lower than even just one win above replacement.

That, I suppose, is what really makes this a sticky, nutty, chewy, chocolatey – put it away, boy! — situation, but it’s also probably all the more reason to keep waiting. If you think can you get anything positive from Gose in the coming years, isn’t that plus the Upton- or Ellsbury-sized pile of money you don’t have to spend to keep Rasmus more valuable to the team than Rasmus alone?

Not necessarily — it’s still just genuinely that dodgy to be relying on Gose, I think — but in addition to still having Gose, plus the massive difference between contracts, consider that continuing to wait on Rasmus also allows you: a) the opportunity to still sign Colby at a later date, b) to trade him for a potentially decent return if you’re out of it on July 31st (or if you’re ready to turn the position over to Gose anyway), c) to get a high-end draft pick if you make him the qualifying offer and he still walks, and d) a total lack of any attachment to him if the BABIP doesn’t hold and his value goes in the tank.

The club might save some money if they try to strike a favourable deal with him now — and they certainly would save money if they did so and he showed that his BABIP-driven 2013 is still kind of new normal — but it would still require a massive commitment, and with all the positive aspects of simply waiting, the urgency to do so just isn’t there. Besides, they showed in 2012 with Edwin Encarnacion that they’re willing to enter a season with a key player possibly on the verge of free agency, and willing to make a deal with him mid-year if it makes sense. I suspect they entered 2013 with the same mentality regarding Josh Johnson (which actually worked out well considering the kind of contract some fans were pushing him to sign a year ago), and that they’ll do so again this year with Rasmus– as they should.

True, they could also deal him now, and many of the same positives would still apply, but that would require a belief in Gose that, right now, just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for a team trying to convince itself and its fan base that they’re contenders. It might not make sense to go with Gose in a year, or in six months, either, but at least by waiting, the club will preserve the flexibility to make that call, rather than hemming themselves in with one or the other before they really had to. And if they can improve the club before Opening Day with just dollars, as they damn well should, there’s no reason they shouldn’t want to preserve that luxury.

Comments (127)

  1. My two cents worth – yes.
    Sign him up for 3 years at whatever the going rate is for a guy like him.

    • And when he says no, what then?

      • click on “force transaction”?

      • How long a extension are you talking? I’m talking 3 to 5 years. I don’t see anyone else other than Gose waiting in the wings who can play CF.
        What do other clubs do when the guy declines their offer to extend?
        Can’t shoot ‘em. Gotta try to trade him or work out a sign-and-trade or something.

        • Two sides need to agree to the extension, is all I’m saying. Gotta figure his side in there too, if you want to be realistic about it.

    • Why is Colby signing up for 3 years when the market will give him 6+?

      • I’d put Colby somewhere between the Upton 5/75 and the Jones 6/85

        • Open market is potentially WAY more than that. See: Ellsbury– if, and it’s a big one, he can repeat his 2013. For an extension I’d think the Jays wouldn’t be very interested unless it was a bit lower, though if they really believe, it’s not inconceivable. I sure wouldn’t guarantee that kind of money to him just yet, but I guess I’ve said that.

          • 4/64 would probably be in the ballpark right now. If he turns in another good year, $90M would probably be his minimum. Ellsbury got his money because he can also steal 40+ bags, and has shown an ability to also be a better hitter twice in the last 3 years.

  2. AA seems to be the king of mid-season contract extensions. If Cletus has a good camp and starts the season off with a consistent effort I see him re-signing by July.

  3. Love him, but take the draft pick to shore up othe concerns.

    • In six years.

      • hopefully

      • I think he means address the other concerns with the money saved as opposed to the 2015 comp. pick gained.

        • *I think*

          • I think you’re being very generous to him.

            • We have a replacement centre fielder in Gose. I would take the loss of Colby, at the end of 2014, if it means we can sign someone like Tanaka this year to a long term deal. Like I said I love Cletus and would be sad to see him go, and wish him nothing but luck. But the cash and the draft pick (or decent trade) combined, have the potential to bring in more than his 4-5 War. It could be a bust, also, but so could Colby this year. Re-invest in Tanaka, please.

              • Tanaka has a say in where he goes, too, you know.

                • Of course he does, but we have no way of knowing what he wants. Having said that money talks in this industry and the more of it that we have the more we can invest in him. If he truely does not want to be a Jay then we have money for other free agents that are being held up by his “auction”.

      • Yup, gotta love that mentality – let a good player today go so that we can replace Jose Reyes in 2019.

        • It is basic economics. We have a servicable replacement player for Colby. Ya it sucks to lose Colbey but for what he wants and what we have to pay for Gose, and the performance difference between them, I lean to not resigning him. If it makes it more palletable think of Gose as a Devon White without the stick but a better arm. This, I think, is the way to build a perennial contender. Also remember Vernon Wells, very similar situation that burned the Jays.

  4. He hits purdy dingers.

  5. I think the current teams issue is floors, whats the worst case scenario, does the management feel that in a worst case scenario we can keep Colby for the season at his projected floor and still contend. I think we can and should therefor not move or sign him and just wait. We had a lot of players play at or below their floor last season (due to injuries) and if we can just have the whole team come back and produce close to season average seasons, sans catastrophic injuries and the ship will hopefully avoid sinking, so to speak.

  6. Agree with you Stoeten about waiting, but just want to say that if they do extended him now on a multi-year, I have a hard time any contract they agree to would be untradeable.

    • Nobody said it would. Still an awful waste of resources if it doesn’t work out– you either trade him for pennies on the dollar, or you take back someone else’s bad contract and still have those resources allocated poorly. Not enough to offset the possible win of signing him now and having it all work out perfectly, in my opinion. Not that I’m kind of afraid of how things haven’t tended to work out perfectly lately, or anything (though that’s sort of revisionist history, given the Bautista and Encarnacion deals, which entirely have).

  7. Yes

    • OK – so because I was too busy being rude and runnnig around screaming “J Bone is going to design something especially for me for my left forearm!” I didn’t get around to responding to this…But I would be truly, truly honoured :DXx

  8. i would NOT extend him… at least not based on contract levels in line with his 2013 offensive performance… its just too hard to be a consistent offensive performer when you k in almost 30% of your ABs and don’t have a sky high walk rate.

    the truth for colby is probably about halfway between 2012 and 2013… in which case I’d probably be inclined to see what kind of offense you can get out of gose near the minimum and use your resources elsewhere.

    • That’s my inclination as well… Colby is too unpredictable, and isn’t a “game-changer” enough to take up that the payroll space it would take to get him signed long-term

  9. Surplus value has a lot to do with these kinds of questions. Basically, are you better off with Colby or with Gose and a bunch of big bags of money? You might be surprised.

    I wrote a thing a while ago tossing around surplus value numbers in an attempt to see what a trade package for David Price might have to look like. It’s not really related to Colby vs. Gose, but in it I look at the surplus value Gose might provide over his six team controlled years if he’s able to be a barely league average everyday player on the strength of his D and base running. It’s here if anyone is interested:

    http://bluejaysblackboard.blogspot.ca/2013/12/trading-for-david-price-fun-with.html

    There’s plenty of assumptions you can quibble with, but if Gose can average 2 wins a season for his six team controlled years (which would likely only require an 85 wRC+, admittedly more than he’s shown), that’s about $81M in surplus value. That’s a fuck-ton of money to re-invest in the team.

    Again, that’s hardly Gose’s floor, but is it inconceivable? Just some food for thought.

    • Gose will be lucky to have Dewayne Wise’s career.

      • Yup that would be that floor I was talking about, and it’s certainly one of many possible outcomes for Gose. It’s way too early to say though, and you’re being overly dismissive of his defense and base running which are head and shoulders better than DeWayne Wise ever showed.

        Juan Lagares was a 3 fWAR player last year with a .242/.281/.352 line and a 75 wRC+. Gose has a career 77 wRC+. I’d expect Lagares’ defensive numbers to regress over time, but it shows what’s possible on the strength of speed and defense. Leonys Martin is another example of a near 3 win young player with just an 87 wRC+, which is better than Gose, but is that unattainable for him? Maybe, but I also only projected him at 2 WAR to arrive at the $81 million number. If he’s closer to a 3 win player it goes up considerably.

        Even if he’s a 1 win player though, at those same salaries (that he’d be less likely to get in arb) he’s still providing the better part of $34 million in surplus value over the same six years. That would make a pretty big dent in any FA starter’s contract over a similar period of time.

        It’s not just about Gose. It’s about Gose plus the extra $40-80 million of cash he likely leaves the team to spend elsewhere.

  10. I agree. Wait and see.

    • the thing about waiting and seeing is, now Colby and his agent have the same amount of data the jays can work with.
      like if he’s worth X amount right now, and another solid few months raises his value by Y, you can’t go back and sign him for X…
      it’s a risk reward
      roll the fuckin dice

      • It’s true, but the Jays have always found the money to extend their own players in recent years. I think they can afford to wait.

        Compared to EE and Bautista you can easily make the case that Colby’s breakout season seems a little less sustainable, plus they have a potentially viable alternative in Gose. I don’t believe in Gose enough to hand him the reins in spring training, hence I would lean against trading Colby now, but undoubtedly the Jays and everyone else would like more data on Gose as well Colby, so again prudence seems to dictate patience.

        • This is a funny argument.

          You have an asset. That asset has a certain value today, but everyone knows that this value is questionable because it has varied widely over the last number of years. By the end of the year, his value will be defined because he will be signed to a new contract. This value may be higher or lower than it currently is. The two sides (Rasmus and the Jays) have to decide whether they can reach an agreement around risk and security based on what they think might happen.

          I’d be shocked to learn that the Jays have not offered Rasmus a low-ball offer for an extension by now, or that Rasmus hasn’t offered to sign an overpay contract. The difference between Bautista/Encarnacion and Rasmus is that the gap between his ask and the Jays’ offer is too big to reach an agreement for now. If Toronto wants to close that gap, they surely could. Not to do so is to take a risk, but it might work out for them at the end of the season if Rasmus has a mediocre year and his value falls. In which case we’ll have a different difficult question to ask: do we want to extend a mediocre CF with Gose lingering in the background?

  11. I say don’t extend him and revisit the subject in the middle June-ish. If it means paying more so be it, but we need to see more of Colby before making a call.

  12. Interesting article,, kudos on the simpson reference

  13. Gose for Ackley tho.

    Kidding aside, does anyone actually project Gose to be anything more than 4th OF bench wheels?

    • What’s wrong with that deal? They get the cf they want we get the 2bagger.

      • Ackley was playing CF for them in the second half of last year, so it doesn’t really address their surplus. Still an interesting idea, which I’ve thrown out there myself, since Ackley then becomes potentially the Jays’ fallback for Rasmus leaving, and Gose covers a tonne of ground in CF in Seattle, but… I don’t know if they’d see it so favourably.

    • Ashley and Colby are two of the most giving poplee I know! They are genuinely concerned about others and show it everyday. They balance each other well and I am sure they will be together until death parts them. I miss you cuzister!!

  14. I would try to extend him now at a lower price then wait and have to pay more.
    Colby looked very comfortable at the plate last year and his bat looked extremely quick through the zone. I think he is going to have a motherfucking season.
    One area Colby needs to work on is a better two strike approach. I am not sure if it is confirmation bias on my part, but I can’t think of a player that looks at more 3rd strikes than he does. It drives me a little nuts.

    • Why extend him for monstrous amounts of money given the problems you identify?

      • All you need to do to boil farm fresh eggs is to be sure they are at least 5 days old. Start with cold water, boil them for 15 min. then let them sit in the hot water for 5 additional minteus. Then immediately get them in cold water. I often add a little salt to the water when boiling, it will keep the whites from coming out if there is a small crack in the shell.

    • Zo, over the years being on WW I’ve gotten so used to dinnkrig water and I’ve gotten Ralph on the wagon too. But here, it’s amazing how much you need to drink. I have to keep reminding Ralph to drink. It’s worth it though!

  15. I would like them to, yes.

    • just adding, I would like them to resign Rasmus rather than let him walk. But the time to do that might be June or July, like they did with Encarnacion.

  16. I’m surprised your so open to the idea of Anthony Gose in center. To me it’s almost exactly the same as Ryan Goins at second. Below replacement level offense (with no power or plate discipline) and plus defense, and neither should start for a good team. How is it different, other than the fact there is no one to even possibly sign to an extension to prevent Goins from starting?

    • I’m in agreement with what you’re saying.

      Another thought, Gose’ defense? His arm is strong but nowhere near accurate. How many times did he straight up miss the cut off man last season? The kid has no baseball sense

      • The difference between Gose and Goins is that Gose is 23, he’s actually hit for the most part in the minors and he’s likely to get better. Goins is a 26 year old minor league veteran who pretty much is what he is.

        • Good point with regard to age, but I only wish I was with you in believing Gose’s hitting will improve. Guys with zero power can hit a wall (so to speak) at the majors when pitchers have no reason to pitch around them, the k-percentage should go WAY up.

    • As minor leaguers, while Gose has struck out more, he’s certainly walked more as well. He’s two-and-a-half years younger, which I think make his numbers more impressive– 114 wOBA at NH as a 20-year-old for Gose, 105 wOBA at age 24 for Goins.

      Samples are too small to read too much into at the big league level, but Gose has 30 points of OBP, 30 points of ISO, and 15 points of wRC+ on Goins, again at a much younger age.

      Neither has been good, mind you, and last year was definitely a setback for Gose, but more importantly, um… how open was I to going with Gose exactly???

  17. I would sell now (sell high) and take high-end prospects as well as everyday players that are on the verge of a breakout year.

    The only reasoning being that it seems like something Tampa would do.

    • but colby is an everyday player on the verge of a breakout year…
      why would anyone trade an incredibly similar asset plus high end prospects?
      i hope they do, i just can’t see any reason why.

      • We love breakfast brriutos! Especially when we can get fresh H.E.B. tortillas. Warm the (flour) tortillas on the griddle then move them to a plate and scramble some eggs in butter on the warm griddle, sprinkle on grated cheese, and sometimes we mix in picante sauce if we’re in the mood for zippy. Place a strip of crispy bacon on a tortilla, spoon on some of the eggs, and roll up. Quick, easy & delicious.

    • Tampa Bay sells high on pitchers, who are more vunerable to spikes then position players. They let Crawford walk, they let B.J. walk. They could have traded either player for assets, but needed them for their pennant race. They trade young controlable pitchers, an area of strength, for young controlable position players. If the jays are patient with the pitchers in the lower end of the minors, they too can have that pipeline of strength to deal from in the near future.

    • I would sell high now and take two starting pitchers and a bunch of prospects and a few million dollars and a dune buggy.

  18. Give him a 54 million 4 year, gaureenteed deal now. Throw in a 2000 abat kicker for a 5th season at 16 million. That would bring the deal to 5 years at 70 million. Then throw in incentives of million dollar bonus for each 30 homerun season, and each 100 rbi season, and a 500,000 bonus for any gold glove awards. Also, if he gets to the fifth year of the deal, he could activate a sixth year of the deal, also for 20 million by having at least three seasons of 30 homeruns combined with three seasons of 100 rbi’s. This would leave the Jays on the hook for a gaureenteed 54 million, but if Colby plays extremely well, could make the deal worth a total of 105 million over six. It’s unlikely that he would hit 30 homers and drive in 100 run, while winning six gold gloves, but if he did, the deal would be a major bargain, IMO.

    • No.

    • Among other reasons, although the “5-year” thing is complete BS, one of the things I seem to recall AA being very clear about is how much he doesn’t like performance incentives in his contracts.

  19. Everyone’s expendable. Haw-haw-haw-hahhhhhhhhh!

    Trade bait for some siiiiiiiiiiiiiick chuckers.

    Bring in chuckers, bring in the dubbias.

  20. the thing with rasmus that won’t show up on the stat sheet, is he seems like the kind of guy who would totally bang the chubby friend if the boys all went out to the bar.

  21. I’m not seeing much difference between Gose and Goins at the moment. Why is one so much more palatable than the other?

  22. Not sure if this has already been said as I kinda skimmed over some of the posts above, but if the Jays don’t sign Rasmus and he prices himself out of the Jays range with a good-to-very-good season, and Gose doesn’t take the next step in his development, who’s in the jays 2015 outfield besides Joey Bats? Melky is a FA at year’s end, Sierra is an unknown, and as far as I can tell, there’s nobody in the minors ready to step up in a full-time role. I have also read that next year’s FA outfield crop isn’t considered to be very strong. I think maybe it was Shi that wrote about this a couple weeks back, and it’s a concerning situation.

    • It’s not.

      Yes, they may end up having to bring an outfielder or two from outside the organization. We’re really pretending this is some kind of monumental task?

      • You can always get sh*tty players from other teams to fill out your rosters. There’s never a shortage of guys who want to play in the Big Leagues.

        But if he signs somewhere else and Gose doesn’t take the next step, I would be getting a little nervous.

        • Yeah, because there are never transactions involving good players. Just bizarre to be worried about this. There’s a shopping list every off-season, and there are always surpluses and ways to get the players you need to fill your roster. Always. Plus, as it stands they have $96-million committed for 2015, or $40-million less than they currently have, and about $55-million below what their reported budget ceiling is.

          Have to factor in potentially picking up options on Morrow and Lind ($15.5-million minus their buyouts, which are already part of the $96-million), plus arb raises and money for whatever pitcher they may add this winter, but that still leaves a lot of room for a couple of outfielders, and that’s IF you don’t retain Rasmus or Gose and don’t think Pillar or Sierra or whoever else comes along is ready.

          Again: bizarre concern at this point. You want the team to start adding 2015 OFs that they can’t actually play anywhere as yet?

  23. If they wait they can at least give the best case scenario a chance – that Colby repeats his performance and contributes to a winning team. If the worst case comes then you miss out on a chance to trade him at the peak of his value, but I think it’s worth it to put off having to make Gose the full time CF. If Colby is going to cost more than the Jays are willing to pay they can collect the draft pick, start the Gose era and invest elsewhere.

  24. it is all about starting pitching. Why would they allocate money now to cf when they need the money for a starter? The target is starting pitching. Colby can wait. The real question is whether Rogers is willing to keep step with the TV contracts that everyone else has been getting lately. If they aren’t then we are toast now and forever and the Colby question will just be one of many.

    • For one thing, if they extend Colby now or during the season, the new contract will start in 2015, not this upcoming year.

    • Starting pitching is the problem this year. Going forward that is not likely to be the case considering the depth and quality of arms available in the minors later this year and next. The position player situation is another story and it’s not a good one. If you look at what AA’s done, he’s largely stacked the minor league teams with quality arms and made acquisitions or signed extensions for the position players. If you look at the minor league depth for the position players there’s really not many, if any impact guys that are going to help in the next two years. Certainly none that have the ceiling of a Stroman or Sanchez.

      So why wouldn’t the Jays lock up a great source of power at a premium position when it’s becoming ever scarcer with the added bonus of great defense?

      Look at the free agent list for 2015, Colby is the only guy under 30 that’s available among outfielders. By 2015 Sanchez and Stroman plus others will potentially be ready to fill any vacancies in the rotation with higher ceilings than Gose will have in the field and will actually be slightly cheaper.

      2nd base and catcher is still a wasteland in 2015 as far as free agents go so where exactly are they going to spend their money? Heading into 2016 the books become even clearer. Don’t get me wrong if they actually chose to blow Tanaka out of the water and signed him to an above market deal instead then I could live with that but there really isn’t a lot of juicy free agents out there that the Jays will have an excellent chance of landing (of course a WS win in 2014 would do wonders for that).

      A three or four year deal takes Colby right to the end of what are likely to be his peak years when he’ll be 30-31. Even if they give him 5 and buy out his last year of arbitration there’s not a ton of downside. $15 – $16 million a year for production based on Streamer projections that include a regressed BABIP still have him at 3.3 fWAR. If you want to talk about surplus value at those prices you’ll still get some with the upside of a lot more if he gets “lucky” again.

      Also what is wrong with having a guy like Gose fill a strong bench position going forward? He can play all 3 spots brilliantly on defense and is a top notch runner. Having a guy like that on the bench who fills so many roles allows them to maximize in other areas and I don’t think that kind of flexibility should be taken for granted. In a way the Jays are lucky to have a guy like Gose to fill Rajai’s shoes going forward. I think Davis’ late game impact would have been missed without an adequate replacement like they potentially have in Gose.

      • You’re really pencilling in a lot from young pitching here. Realistically, it won’t happen that easily. You’re also overlooking the fact that Rasmus could be a whole lot worse than just splitting the difference between the highs and lows in his track record, and definitely overlooking Colby’s end of the equation, if you think he’s just going to smile and swallow a three year deal. And buy out his last year of arbitration? That’s 2014.

        Also: what’s wrong with having Gose on the bench? Lack of regular playing time. What we now see may well be what we get with Gose, but you’d hate to take away the opportunity for him to get consistent reps from here out, and basically consign him to the fourth OF bin. He could be good in that Davis role, except he can’t platoon with someone like Lind, and the importance of that sort of role is way overstated anyway.

        • I don’t think I am overlooking things from Colby’s end. That was the whole point of buying out his last year, more money upfront for Colby. It does in fact mitigate a portion of risk from his point of view in case as you suggest he flops again. Of course there is no question he could end up below the mid point again. Personally, I believe he’ll do better based on last year, adjustments in his routine and his age (peak years).

          I guess we will have to disagree on Gose’s his value as a bench player. Yes he’s not a platoon help from the right side like Davis but his defense is better and who is to say he can’t get 250 to 350 ABs at the major league level spelling all three guys in the outfield or as a regular late inning defensive replacement for Melky. To me even 250 ABs at the major league level would be worth more than 500 vs AAA pitching. Also you would figure he would benefit more from being around the better coaching at the major league level.

          As for the pitching I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say that Stroman or Sanchez would be worth more or at least equal to Gose in terms of WAR in 2015. Dave Cameron made similar arguments about Walkers potential worth in relation to a trade for Price. While Stroman or Sanchez might not be Walker’s equal, in this case they don’t have to be to put up more value than Gose. Again there was quite a few nice examples of that around the league last year in guys like Wacha or Gray.

          If you look at the rotation for 2015 you’re looking at something like Dickey, Buehrle Morrow (if his option gets picked up), free agent starter from this winter, and potentially one of Stroman or Sanchez so again If you combine that with the sad 2015 free agent class for position players where does the cash go?

          IMO if you move anyone for 2015 it’s Buehrle, the $19 million is a larger chunk of your 2015 budget with a greater chance of his continued decline. Combine that with far more internal and free agent options on the pitching side for 2015 and you can potentially win on both sides of the ball.

          • You suggested a three year extension as possible, so yes, you are overlooking Colby’s side of it, because that’s not happening.

            On Gose, you were talking about having him on the 2014 bench, not his long-term bench value. And as for the young starters, being equal in WAR to Gose, in addition to having nothing to do with anything, isn’t good. And there are lots of places for future cash to go, and lots of pitching depth is a necessity, so I’m not sure what you’re on about at the end either.

  25. Drink this in.
    Let it permeate.
    Nobody gets into a ball like Cletus. This is why is babip is so high.
    He fuckin destroys the ball.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv-NQRO27rc&safe=active

    • And he just started doing this in 2013? Because it wasn’t high in 2011 or 2012.

      • Yes he did start hitting in 2013 and BABIP likely went up because he hit it harder when he put it in play. His 130wRC+ and 840 OPS compared to 83/90 and 689/688 marks in 2011/2012 attest to that as well as the BABIP. In 2010 he put up strong numbers with 859OPS, 130wRC+, 354 BABIP.

        Don’t understand the focus on “is this BABIP sustanable” rather than is his OPS or wRC+ sustainable..The question is can he sustain being a good hitter when he has been for 2 years and hasn’t been for two others?

    • A Colbeh homerun is one of the prettiest things you can see at a Jays game.

  26. I think they’re also thinking about 2015 and beyond. What does the outfield look like next year? If we assume Lind and Cabrera will be gone and I think that Bautista platooning with Edwin as DH/1B is at least on the table the Jays could have a whole new outfield.

    If you sign Rasmus, who plays the corners? Does using Goes in center and signing outfielders make more sense?

    One thing that’s for sure is the only homegrown talent long term in the outfield is Gose (maybe). Is Sierra possible?

    All of these questions need consideration about whether or not to extend Rasmus.

  27. Colby can turn on a 98 mph fastball which can bode well for a playoff team going against ace starting pitching and bullpen heat. Extend Clutch Cletus mid-season to a little less than Adam Jones money and let us reap the future playoff rewards.

  28. The Jays just need to make a call on him .. If they wait and try and sign him mid year bc they see progress and believe in the improvement then you would think his agent is going to tell him to test the market at year end. Unless Colby has some massive affinity for Toronto then it’s highest $ wins and the Jays are gonna lose.

    The jays need to gather all the info and make the call. Sign him prior to the season start and thus believe in the improvement – or the lack of other serious options or roll the dice and except that the best they can do is a mid season swap or draft pick compensation.

    The Jays have made the right calls on Jose, EE, Lind to some extent and now Johnson …

    I would like to see Colby stick around .. Premium CF are costly and the jays have invested in Colby and stuck with him and hopefully it now pays off for both.

    • What if he has a ridiculously good year then asks for a contract longer than the “policy” allows?

    • False. Did Edwin’s agent tell him that? Of course they can sign him mid-season. And you can’t just say “look at everything,” because the whole point is that looking at everything as it stands doesn’t make for easy conclusions.

  29. Interesting look at the players available in this years draft:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-top-100-draft-prospects-by-the-numbers/

  30. I’d wait. I like colby, but im not sure its solely based on his performance.

    If he commands a 100 million dollar contract, theres a good chance he doesn’t live up to it, and if re invested properly Gose stepping in wouldn’t be overly damaging.

  31. High k’s increase your BABIP.. Doesn’t mean anything.

    • A good point. And his two best seasons did coincide with higher K-rates, but the difference in BABIP is huge, and his K% was still pretty bloody high in the intervening years, so I’m not sure we can quite write the consideration off so easily.

      • And his k rates have fluctuated huge as well by 10% so that’s what happens. You subtract a larger number from the denominator and the ratio goes up huge.

        Most hitters who k a lot don’t hit for avg. Think jack cust or mark reynolds. Rasmus did the unusual thing of hitting for avg.

        1st pitch .354
        ahead .354 ops 1.123
        2-1 .522 ops 1.626

        2 strikes .187 ops .587

        He got a lot of hits before 2 strikes, then was mia with 2 strikes.
        He wasn’t doing anything special other than really mashing early in the count.
        He wasn’t getting a lot of 2 strike hits so no reason that he can’t continue hitting for avg.

        • Interesting

        • I like this higs

        • I don’t think it’s necessarily quite that simple as the first bit, nor is it surprising to see someone hit well in hitter’s counts and poorly when behind in the count, though yes, the disparity is a bit extreme.

          Not seeing how this sentence proves itself: “He wasn’t getting a lot of 2 strike hits so no reason that he can’t continue hitting for avg.”

    • More Ks and more hits is better than less Ks and less hits. The higher Ks doesnt completely cancel out the increase in BABIP so it does mean something otherwise his overall production would have been as low. Makes sense his K rate may go up when his BABIP does if it is was change of approach where he is being more selective swinging at good pitches to hit and/or swinging harder. Nothing wrong with that as at the end of the day it is about production.

      Would be interesting to see the splits vs league average for two strikes etc and also the difference for 2013 compared to previous years. Could be a case where he has changed his approach to be more selective, has found success but the opposing teams may now change their approach against him and force him to change approach again or risk struggling. To me Colby seems like a bit of a potential head case when making adjustments and maybe that is why we saw flashes of a good player in 2011/2012 and finally put it together in 2013. How does he handle making adjustments in 2014 when the pitchers fully adjust to him?

  32. FWIW

    Colby has the ability both defensively and offensively.His past shows that.
    So which is the real Colby?
    Considering the conditions for both good and bad years and a different approach at the plate,it seems to appear that Colby is set for a very good year.
    Colby’s grown in the last year and going into his FA year,he will be a force.

  33. The risk of Colby’s production dropping off is worth it to have a 3 to 5 WAR guy for the next 4 years or so.

    Once he’s gone, you’re not going to find another one. How many Centre Fielders come available with the upside that he has?

    Sign this man

    • Uh… he’s been a 3 to 5 war guy twice. The other times, when his production dropped off, he was a 0.5 and 1.1 WAR guy. Not sure you’re quite seeing the point.

  34. If it’s me I’d offer him 4/48 right now. He’s going to hit .250 with 20+hr and solid defense and mostly healthy. If he has a big year you’re looking at bj upton money, maybe 6/90 and the jays wont’ go there. Why take that risk? Bite the bullet. A slight overpay now is better than a gross overpay next year. if anyone seems like they would take a discount to stay here it’s rascal.

    • Agreed.

    • Hard to disagree with 4/48, I could totally live with that.

    • First, it’s nonsense to say that the Jays won’t go to whatever number you’ve dreamed up. Second, what would you have offered Josh Johnson this time last year?

      I’d like to think that Colby would be tempted by a deal like this, but I don’t even know– it’s a huge discount compared to what Ellsbury got, and while I don’t know if Colby is going to land quite in that territory. It’s certainly possible with another strong year, and he’s going to hit free agency a year younger than Ellsbury. Even if he’d take it, you’re assuming a whole lot of unnecessary risk on a guy who was dogshit until a year ago. That’s why the question is complicated.

      • AA has showed no interest in overpaying anyone. He only signs players to what he perceives as a discount. The only reason JB and Edwin signed here is because they took less money than they’d get as a free agent, not because AA overpaid them. No reason to think he’s going to deviated from that for colby.

        I would not have offered JJ anything. I need to see an NL player prove himself in the AL east facing the toughest teams before I trust his stats. Facing the cubs, astros, mets hardly gave me confidence.

        it’s not really complicated. It’s only money. Risk is risk. Baseball is full of risks. AA needs to accept that he’s going to have to take calculated risks to succeed. Salaries are going parabolic. Darvish appeared to be an overpay but now looks reasonable. Colby’s deal will look cheap in 4 years. This team is already bad, take colby off and it gets worse fast.

        • Categorically false. You don’t think he overpaid the Mets for Dickey? He’ll do it in money one day as well, to be sure. Just because he hasn’t doesn’t mean he won’t.

          As for the NL pitcher stuff, that’s complete and utter nonsense.

          Take Colby off the team and it’s about three or four wins worse. Trade him for someone of equal value or reinvest the resources in someone of that value and it’s a wash. I don’t disagree with you about money being the best thing to invest and salaries getting out of whack, but you’re completely ignoring the risk that Colby returns to being the 0.5-1.1 win player he was in 2011 and 2012.

        • Except he acquired overpaid players from Marlins last year. What’s the difference, really, between acquiring players with bloated contracts and offering those bloated contracts? Either way, shows he’s willing and able to take on those contracts.
          Also, he’s stated publicly that he’s no longer as worried as he was with Bautista and Encarnacion about letting it play out an get close to free agency.
          My guess is that those contracts bought AA a ton of goodwill with the bean counters at Rogers. He’s shown an ability to evaluate talent and not go all Vernon Wells with his contracts, so if he goes to his higher ups and says Rasmus needs to be locked up, I imagine the money will be there.

        • This is just dumb. He only signed Bautista and Encarnacion to team-friendly deals in hindsight. At the time, most people around baseball thought the deals were big risks because they both had a track record of mediocrity followed by one big season. I remember reading articles about how the Bautista extension was going to be a mistake.

          “AA needs to accept that he’s going to have to take calculated risks to succeed.”

          That’s exactly what he did with those two extensions. Just because they worked out amazingly well in the long run doesn’t mean that they weren’t risks.

    • I like that, 4/48. Whatever decision they make on the guy has to take into account that, while they’ve got a few kids in AAA (Gose, Sierra, Pillar) who can actually fill the position, there’s really nothing on the farm til you get to DJ Davis and Anthony Alford that can make a difference. And because they’re there (low minors), it’s still impossible to predict how they’ll do in the big league. That makes it more important to hold on to Colby. One thing for sure, while he may be a little volatile, he’ll be a valuable commodity for a while.
      I do have to say that Sierra has a very good chance this spring to make a move and it should be interesting.

      • Very long shot that any of those guys is ever a regular big league CF for this team or any other.

        • So is Colby the best of all of them? All the more reason to sign the kid. CFs apparently don’t grow on trees.

  35. Rasmus is a competitor and deserves to be on the squad. Gose is not ready to be an every day player in less we’re happy with a .215 batting average all year long.

    Wait on Colby, he could have a big year if he stays healthy.

    • ha .. so they should keep Rasmus because he is a “COMPETITOR” and not go with GOSE because he may hit .215 ..

      I would think you may be missing a few other metrics in your evaluations of each.

      MB

  36. Extend ‘em all and let god sort ‘em out.

  37. If he gives you a discount and signs for a below market deal because he likes playing here (which, given his/his father’s comments, actually might apply in this case, then sure. Something like 5/60. Otherwise, wait and see.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *