rasmusdugout

Colby Rasmus’s father, Tony (aka @FlorenceFalcon0), is a great follow on Twitter. He’s willing to engage fans, and entirely unafraid to speak his mind, even when it comes to matters involving his son, or the team he plays for. This, as you might expect, can cause some trouble from time to time. Especially when fans with too much time on their hands, and few other nuggets to satiate themselves with, get the ol’ gears turning about why what they perceive to be an “insider” dishing about the intriguing plans of the front office.

And when Tony Rasmus is talking about the possibility of Colby getting traded, that would seem to be what people do. At least, judging by the bout of clarifications he’s been making (once again) today:

I mean… obviously, right? As I tweeted myself, I don’t think anybody should have needed to be walked through this, but I’m glad he did it anyway. Even if I have a feeling this isn’t going to stop people who are hellbent on insisting that Colby is about to be moved, that the Jays got to the elder Rasmus and have made him shut his trap, or some such nonsense.

Yes, a trade is a possibility, like it has always been a possibility. I’m sure the Jays are as fearful of handing the reins to Anthony Gose as we are, but if an opportunity comes along that they think will give them the chance to be better in the overall, obviously they’re going to do it– especially, as Tony says, given Colby’s contract status and track record. Doesn’t mean anything is imminent, though.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Comments (107)

  1. Oh in addition to signing Ubaldo and trading for a decent 2nd baseman, signing Colby to an extension is right up there on the to do list. It might not be as cheap as it could of been last year, but I think it’s a necessity as far as things like that go. It’s probably still early but Gose is looking more and more like bench material than an everyday starter. Nothing wrong with having a guy with his speed and defense filling that role of course, in fact I think that’s a great thing, I just don’t think he’s going to be anywhere close to Colby over the next 3 years.

    • No, it’s not.

      Way too volatile in terms of performance. Not a lot of sense in signing him now unless they REALLY believe, and not a lot of good reason for them to.

      • I agree he’s volatile, no question, but if you look at things going forward, there’s not a lot out there in the next year or two in terms of free agents, especially someone that’s got the ceiling that he has. As for internal options, you’re probably worse off than the free agent market unless you’re willing to accept a poor bat in CF on top of what you already have at 2nd and possibly at catcher.

        • Only worse off using internal options if you don’t factor in the dirt cheap cost of a Gose, which of course, totally needs to be factored in.

          Similar to Johnson last spring, not a lot of sense in paying for last year without seeing if it all works again this year. Then again, they went for it with Bautista with not a lot of data, but they obviously believed in the mechanical change. Maybe they think the same with Colby, but I have my doubts. Big BABIP outlier in his two best seasons. Probably not a good idea paying him for BABIP unless he’s doing something different they think will make it sustainable. And while he did make mechanical changes last year — as he’s done almost constantly since he’s been here, seemingly — just hard to buy. Especially when they don’t have to, or when they can trade him to someone who maybe does, or when they can feel pretty good about either him playing his way off the team or them getting a pick for him when he walks.

          I mean, right now the difference between him and Gose is worth the difference between their salaries, I think, but when Gose is still making league minimum-ish, with a floor of something on the order of 1 WAR thanks to defence alone (maybe higher), and keeping Rasmus means investing $75-million that can’t be invested elsewhere, you’ve got to be really, really certain of him to pull that trigger.

          • Again good points, it will be interesting to see just how much the Jays do believe in him. At least their track record in that area is pretty good of late with Jose and EE who just like Colby, you could have argued the similar things about prior to their extensions.

            Unfortunately, it currently seems like the Jays are one of those teams, that has to take those risks because of their lack of success in or willingness to fill holes through free agency.

            Even if you regress his BABIP back to .300, Steamer and Oliver have him worth about 3.3 – 3.5 fWAR. I think there’s a good chance that he ends up there as a floor than at the unlucky end of the BABIP scale if he is healthy considering his age and supposed skill level. Obviously I can’t say that for certain, it’s just my opinion. Looking at the top 20 CFer’s last year only 2 had BABIP’s below .300. I wonder if an above average BABIP comes with the skill set that makes you a fit for the position more than anything else.

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  2. Sign Rasmus now… Gose has looked like shit each and every stint with the team. And if he is to be the full time center fielder this team may as well start the rebuild with a new GM.

    • I disagree. Gose has good defence and great speed on the basepaths. His hitting has not been good, but he ended off this year taking much better at-bats.

      • Speed is useless if he can’t get on base, which he can’t
        His defense isn’t that much better than Colby’s to make up for the atrocious hitting.

    • Ditto

  3. It was Tony who tweeted earlier that “Colby has been told to prepare to be traded”,Then recanted by saying nobody from the Jays told Colby this. It was speculation from another player.
    That, added to the part where Colby hadn’t been asked to participate in the winter tour,even though he was willing and available.led to speculation.
    If Tony doesn’t know how to tweet properly, somebody should teach him.
    I’m taking lessons, just to avoid bullshit like this.

    • Wait…didnt Colby say he was going to Dunedin early to work on things and so was unavailable for the Tour?

      • @ Karl

        Yup.
        Which shows some mindless speculation by the fanbase is not always a good thing.
        But some people were trying to put one and one together.
        Too bad they came up with three.

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    • True. However, recanted makes it sound like it was sinister. It wasn’t. Obviously someone who watches MLBTR could have told him that. It’s so beyond innocuous.

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  4. If this year turns to crap as did ’12 and ’13
    I could see them trading Rasmus at the deadline.

    But if they’re entertaining thoughts of contending in ’14
    it is much harder to see them making that kind of move now.

    • I don’t see why they’d be overly motivated to move too many guys if they like them and think they can extend them. I think there’s’ only 3 – 4 guys with a contract in 2016, it’s not like they need to unload.

    • He loses draft pick compensation if he is traded at the deadline. If he isn’t extended, either trade him now or ride it out the year with him, make a qualifying offer, let him walk and get the draft pick. Only way they trade him at deadline if it is a big return or they are completely out of the race.

      The volatility is a reason he may be able to be signed to extension now.? Hitting FA if he has a good year he will be looking for long term deal – if he has good start he will want long term big money for extension. Before or early in the year is the time to sign him or it may be too late?

      • If they trade Colby (although I’m against it) they’ll still get someone back so they don’t have to be locked into the QO and draft pick option.

      • With the QO/draft pick option, the guy the Jays would select
        may or may not pan out and most likely
        would not be seen in the majors for 2-5 years
        depending on whether it was a college or HS kid taken.

        With the trade option, the team acquiring him does not lose a pick,
        nor it does not lose the pool money associated with signing a FA
        who has a QO attached. As such, they may part with
        something of significance.

        One can make an argument for going either route.

        • Maybe would make sense to trade him mid year if it brought back MLB player like Phillips for 2B. If he is traded for prospects how much beyond a compensation level pick type prospect would the team give up? Maybe a sign and trade they give up more. Before the year they are trading for Rasmus plus a likely draft pick if he doesn’t resign while at deadline it is half a season and no draft pick which is under half the value.

          • Phillips is just not anywhere close to as good as people think, I think.

            • If not Phillips then someone else that is an MLB capable 2B in similar tier to Rasmus – not sure who else would be on the block the fits that. Point is a trade mid season for prospects maybe doesn’t give great return considering they lose draft pick.

              Phillips is a perennial all star and gold glover it’s hard not to like that. Will be tough to find any better option for the other weakness of the position players if Rasmus is traded. Tough to have Gose and Goins both in the line-up without any dominant starting pitchers to boot.

    • “turns to crap”?

      colby’s 2 big years (2010, 2013) are mostly babip-driven. where the luck dragon wanders, so doth colby’s ability in the eyes of the plebs.

      • I don’t love BABIP as a stat.
        he drills line drives… of course more of those will be hits than a guy who consistently rolls over ground balls or just hits fly balls and hopes they leave the park.

        • You can also lookup Line Drive, Flyball and Ground Ball rates and correlate them with the BABIP to get a better understanding of whether it’s close to right or not. The higher a player’s Line Drive rate, the better chance he has of a higher BABIP.

          Aaron Hill is a great example in his last 2 years with the Blue Jays. Both years he had a very low BABIP, but they were for entirely different reasons. In 2010 Hill’s LD rate dropped to around 11% (down from a normal 19-20%) and his fly ball rate spiked. Looking at these numbers, you would say Hill’s around .200 BABIP was about right.

          Overall, Line Drives get hits about 75% of the time (.750 batting average), and Flyball/Ground balls are much more detrimental.

          In 2011, Hill’s BABIP again sat in the low .200s (.221) with the Blue Jays, but all his other indicators had returned back to normal career rates. In 2011, Aaron Hill was posting a similar statistical performance, but looking at his rates he was actually getting VERY unlucky that year.

          Not surprising at all that when he resigned with Arizona, he returned to the productive hitter he was with the Blue Jays pre-2010.

          —–

          As for Rasmus, there’s not a lot of evidence to suggest his BABIP will stay this high. He did post a career best LD rate, but it only increased from 20% in 2012 to 22% in 2013. Signing Rasmus now would be buying a stock at it’s peak. I am a big fan of Rasmus and would love to keep him in Toronto, but he’s likely going to cost 15 million per year for 4-5 years.

          IF the Jays QO him and lose him and get a pick, they also have 15MM in cash to “trade” for the services someone they can sign in Free Agency. Need to think about what those resources can be used for.

      • I meant if the season turns to crap; not if Colby turns to crap.

      • Agree with David and Guertez. It seems insane how high BABIP is attributed to luck all the time and can’t imagine that the teams are making such a flawed analysis. It is an indicator but not conclusive at all. If a guy over a whole season gets hits on balls in play more often the most likely explanation is he is hitting the ball harder with more line drives (or even on the ground if he hits it hard enough). To blindly attribute this to luck over such a large sample is foolish. Wonder if anyone tracks “how hard the ball was hit” as a metric and weights it into a stat to have better analysis. In any case improved metrics would eliminate this “luck” nonsense when considering 600+ plate appearances.

    • I get that thay have a choice, but if they trade Colby they have to replace him AND Melky is gone in 2015. So far Gose is NOT the answer. Even with his speed he can’t steal bases like Rajai because he can’t read pitchers yet. They’re trying to fix his bat with stuff like reducing his leg kick but I don’t know if he’ll ever hit above .250.

  5. Would the BJ Upton deal 5 @72.5 be about right for Colby if he was let’s say a tick below last years production in 2014?

    Or would it be more?

  6. Rasmus is a very good player, one of the best in the league at his position. Don’t let this shitty cheap ass team or old man Rasmus being an idiot on twitter change that.

    But of course, since AA is a cheap dollar store GM always looking for “value” I can see him trying to short change Colby and he is lost to free agency.

    • He’s a good athlete, but he’s way too volatile. AA said he would rather get a better picture on how Rasmus would perform halfway through the season then sign an extension rashly, even if it does end up costing the Jays more money.

    • your comment started off so well. and then…

    • You should find another team to cheer for. Clearly cheering fort his one is affecting you negatively.

      • Maybe take off the homer glasses for a while and see what this team truly is… or whom it’s run by at the very least.

        • The team is projecting toward a 150 million dollar payroll, nothing wrong with only making smart moves (granted I would like to have seen him more in on some of the 2B depth options like Sizemore).

          Who else remembers a couple years ago when Beeston was called a lying prick for saying this team could carry a 140 million+ payroll?

          • I know what Rogers and the team are trying to do here, the old under promise over deliver routine. Give the fans a crappy pay roll for years, make them think that’s the ceiling then suddenly raise the payroll and now everyone is rejoicing.

            The fact of the matter is this teams payroll is where is should be relative to many other factors. They need to go beyond this now….

            • @ HJ

              Wrong.
              Look at the reasons why payroll was were it was.
              You’ll understand a lot more that way.

            • Banned for stupidity. (Trolling, actually. There are legitimate concerns about the way Rogers has behaved regarding payroll. Still a troll, though– and not a particularly effective one, either. Troll harder.)

              • I’m banned for stupidity again?
                That’s the 3rd time this month.
                Oh, not me?
                Well, that was stupid of me.
                Drat, I did it again.

                • Yeah. The guy above you.

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  7. Colby : “Dad, you’re drunk. Get off the computer. You’re fucking embarrassing me”.

    • Colby: Pappy you drank. Get offa your ‘puter. Fuck man. Shhhiit.

      • Well, I was hoping that a few years in Canada – where actual English is spoken – might have rubbed off on Cletus’ diction.
        ‘Parently not.

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  8. Sound like a Rasmus for homer baily trade is in the works.

    • With Bailey the Jays are in the same boat as Rasmus to try to sign extension – if they can get Jiminez/Santana as a FA might as well try that then flip Rasmus for a 2B if they are going to trade him – Phillips is perfect and can likely get more than him back.

  9. The loss of QO is a non issue, and probably preferable.

    If Colby won’t cost the acquiring team a pick, that means his price tag will be higher. He will have more value in a trade. We might not get the pick, but we’d get a much better return on him.

  10. Too bad Lawries pops doesn’t tweet.

  11. Colby has just about the worst arm in the majors, can’t steal a base to save his life and hears footsteps too often when he approaches the wall. He hits for power well but can’t advance a runner. He’s also very inconsistent. Trade him. He does all the little things poorly or not at all. I’d take Gose since he has way more upside than Colby at this point though Colby would fetch more in return right now. Gose is a gamer and can change the course of a game with a throw, a great catch or a stolen base. Give him another year to learn how to hit before judging him and he could very well become a better cf than the thalidomide baby-armed Rasmus.

    • Ew.

    • His arm isn’t good but the rest of your statement I disagree with.
      .

    • Gose has more upside than a guy who has twice already been a 4-5 win player?

      Oh lord, and the “gamer” bullshit? Go back to the Sun comments.

      • Thank you Stoeten.

        I guess technically you could say any prospect has “more upside” than a current player if you want to. So go ahead and say it and then look ridiculous.

        With an already unknown situation in LF, I fear what the outfield would look like without Rasmus.

      • And you’re a pathetic broken record with thar fwar crap–you seem to think its some sort of unanswerable stat that trumps any other argument/way of considering value. It isn’t, and you’re an arrogant, condescending little prick. I think that if you ever actually played baseball, it was probably on an all girls team.

  12. Yeah, I don’t want Colby gone or any of the Rasmus clan. Too entertaining.
    But I can see the argument for trading him, his value will never be higher then right now.
    Teams do get desperate at the trade deadline but I can’t see a team giving up more in July then now.
    Right now a contender gets Colby for a full year and they get a first round draft pick in 15.
    A package like that should be able to get you a front of the rotation guy, but of course it creates holes elsewhere.

    I guess the argument that Jays management is mulling is – Are we better picking up PitcherX (a number 2 rotation guy) and playing with the excellent speed/defence and anemic bat of Gose?

    or

    Are we better with the well rounded, possibly top 5 in all of baseball CF’er and trying to sign some FA’s who had good years but undependable histories?

    And all that is assuming you can find a team that wants to give up a number 2 for a great CF’er.

    To me the whole Bailey for Colby deal doesn’t make sense. They have Billy Hamilton in Centre.

    Now if they were to include Phillips and move Hamilton to second…………

    But then we would need to include more……

    Fuck, this is way harder then on Play station.

  13. I am a big fan of Colby Rasmus and hope he stays with the Jays for many years to come. But… how delusional is this thought?

    The Jays sign Jimenez or Santana or Garza and give up a second round draft pick. They turn around and offer the pitcher, Colby, and perhaps something else to the Angels in exchange for Mike Trout.

    The Angels keep their first round draft pick, get an all-star calibre centre fielder, significantly improve their pitching rotation, and save some serious future dollars as Trout moves towards his arb years.

    They give up maybe 9 WAR but get back 3.5- 4 WAR from Colby, another 3′ish WAR in pitching, and whatever value might be attributed to a first round draft pick.

    The Jays keep their two protected first round draft picks and swap a very good center fielder for a player whose projected 2014 WAR is higher, apparently, than the entire outfields of 22 major league teams.

    Lunacy? Probably or definitely?

    • You seem sincere, so I’ll be gentle: that’s the dumbest fucking thing I’ve ever heard.

      Trout is four years from free agency. He’s a $30-million per-year player making NOTHING. Come on.

      • Hahahahhahahahahahhhahahahaahhahahahhaha!

        Best line outta Stoets EVER!

      • Thanks for being gentle.

        Trout is the best output-to-cost player in baseball by a huge margin. Yet his $510K salary in 2013 is going to be well north of $10 million by 2015 and then higher every year after. I imagine that if the Angels tried to lock him up long-term- even today- they would be looking at something beyond what Seattle offered for Cano.

        • So what? The Angels have a tonne of money and have a track record of being willing to spend it.
          And we’re talking about a guy whose first 2 season make it appear as though he’ll be one of the greatest baseball players of all time.

          Why are we even talking about this?

    • If there was a word more certain than ‘definitely’ I’d offer that up as to the level of lunacy in what you’re suggesting.

    • Wow.Like I mean just fucking WOW.
      Disagree with Stoeten though.
      Not the dumbest thing I’ve heard but definitely top five.

    • Holy fucking shit. I can’t even imagine being fucked up enough on a Monday afternoon to spew that kind of retardedness. I think I’m a bit jealous.

      • so much for gentle…

      • So many lines to respond with.
        So little time.

        • Jesus….the poor mis-guided, yet terribly earnest, fucker’s probably in self-confidence therapy now – either that, or in the ER getting his asshole UN-reamed out.
          Tough crowd here! Wow.
          Funny as shit, though…just tough.

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      Good lord.

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  14. I don’t like Colby playing out his final year in the contract. The Jays have to have a pretty good idea of what they got in him now.

    If they think he’s a volatile CF with an above average BABIP that trade him. If 2013 was for real and you think you got a 3-5 WAR guy for the next four or five seasons, then sign him.

    Big Tim MLB teams would sign him right now.

    • Totally agree. They should have the jump on evaluating him for the future on other teams. If they aren’t willing to extend him now then wither trade him or plan to have him play out the year and get the compensation pick. Waiting to see if he is good again just raises the years and value of the contract maybe out of the realm of what they Jays want to pay so if they like him sign him now.

    • Nothing you’ve said tells us why you believe that they ought to know by now what they have in him.

      • Because he has played on the team for a number of years and since they have worked so much with his swing they would have more information than outsiders one would figure. They may think for some reason he isn’t going to flourish permanently while an outsider may not see whatever that is and give up more than the Jays value for him. In that case it supports trading him before the season for maximum return.

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  15. Would a Bailey & Phillips for Colby & Nolin (and maybe a lower tier pp too) appease?

    Draft picks offset, they strengthen two positions and deal from their strength. They also shed Phillips contract which they’ve been trying to do while being able to save face with the fan base by showing a pitching prospect in return.

    We get a little weaker offensively but much of what is lost in exchanging Gose for Colby can be made up in Phillips over Goins and izturis.

    • I like the idea, but I suspect the Reds may actually value Bailey higher than that and want more.

      • What about Sanchez instead of Norris and throw in Izturis?

        Personally would rather just see Rasmus for Phillips+ and sign Jiminez and Santana if it can be managed. Or Rasmus on extension and sign FA SP.

        • Who knows. I don’t pretend to be knowledgeable enough about what the exact pieces would need to be.

          I like Bailey.
          I like Rasmus a lot, but I recognize he’s also a valuable trade chip.

          …That’s about where I stop because after that it’s pointless to guess.

        • .

        • with nolin, not nearly enough. with sanchez, it may be too much.

      • yeah dave cameron from fangraphs thinks bailey’s worth more than rasmus as well. plus although its probably a little delusional, the reds probably still see themselves as contenders, so a bailey for rasmus trade which at best is 2 steps forward and two steps back for them is probably not really attractive. unlike the jays who have a decent replacement for rasmus waiting in the wings, i dont think the reds have a replacement for bailey even remotely approaching his quality. plus they seem pretty high on billy hamilton in cf, even though from what i can tell he seems a hell of a lot like anthony gose.

        as for phillips, his contract is less onerous than I thought. its probably going to take a fair bit more than nolin to pry him away

        • Agreed that it won’t change the landscape much in their projections.
          They’d probably want a pitcher back who can pitch right now.
          They do have Robert Stephenson who they and most prospect sites are very high on but he finished last year at AA and is only 21.

          Also, I’m not sure that the Reds wouldn’t welcome putting Hamilton at second if Phillips could be dealt. Hamilton grew up playing SS and did his entire minor league career until last year. One year at CF and then thrown to the wolves at the ML level, there will be a huge learning curve.

          • Also, I’m only debating for fun.

            I love Cletus.

            Only one more week until Tanaka signs and then hopefully our team fills out.

      • I was really confused, and this answered all my quoeitsns.

  16. Really hope we don’t trade Colby. Behind Jose/Jose/Edwin he’s our best position player.

  17. So with Kershaw’s jaw dropping extension I imagine all the other remaining free agent pitchers and Tanaka just did a cartwheel or two while GM’s for teams like the Jays probably tripped and fell down the stairs. It will be interesting to see how much, if any, this extension moves the dial for some of these guys.

    $20 million a year + his signing fee looked to be a lot for Tanaka (even if it was going to look cheap in a year or two anyway) but now it’s got a chance to be just the floor for him.

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