Warning: apc_store(): Potential cache slam averted for key 'w3tc_blogs.thescore.com_object_c8478405b42a12eba8c0dbf6a24e2873' in /opt/blogs/wp-content/plugins/w3-total-cache/lib/W3/Cache/Apc.php on line 41 No Extension For Rasmus (Yet), Avoids Arbitration | Drunk Jays Fans | Blogs | theScore.com

colbrows

Joel Sherman of the New York Post, for some reason, is the first one to report this nugget, telling us that the Jays won’t be going to arbitration with Colby Rasmus:

The arbitration projections at MLBTR suggested $6.5-million for Rasmus, so… I guess that’s good for him?

If you’ve forgotten, the Jays have an internal policy under which they won’t negotiate one-year deals with players past the deadline for exchanging arbitration numbers, which happens to be today at 1 PM ET. If they’d gone beyond that, the two sides were either going to go to an arbitrator, or work out a multi-year extension. (Breaking the policy would be another option, I suppose, as well).

This deal doesn’t preclude them from continuing to talk about an extension, of course, but some folks out there thought it was possible that one would get done prior to today. Nope!

According to Sherman, Brett Cecil has also agreed to terms with the club, signing a $1.3-million deal to avoid arbitration, and it would be wholly surprising if we didn’t hear by the end of the day that Esmil Rogers has come to an agreement as well [Update: yep, $1.85-million], seeing as clubs and players alike hate the possibility of going to an arbitrator, because it can often become very contentious, with clubs doing literally all that they can to make the case that their player deserves less money than he’s asking for.

Rogers and Cecil were arbitration eligible for the first time this year, while this was Colby’s third and final time through the process. And I suppose now’s as good a time as any to not that next year’s first-time arbitration eligible players for the Jays will include Brett Lawrie and Steve Delabar.

Comments (174)

  1. Boo! Was kind of hoping my first bit of good news for 2014 was going to be a Colby extension today but I guess with everything still screwed up with the Tanaka mess I guess there is still time.

    I mean how could anyone not want those cornrows around for another 4 or 5 years regardless of the cost?

    • I love colby,
      but the more i think about it, he’s not exactly a game breaker,
      he plays a real smooth center field, but he’s going to make prob 12 mil or more per season, maybe 15….. is that money well spent? i’m not sure.

      • Smooth like Devon White, roaming CF out there.

      • Well I made this argument the other day in a previous post and I am still clinging to so I personally think he’s worth it, or going to be worth it, given what’s in the system and what’s out there on the free agent market. Of course that doesn’t mean something won’t become available through a trade again or that the money couldn’t be used elsewhere but for me it would be money well spent.

      • It would be tremendously spent if he plays like 2013 for multiple seasons from here on out. If he doesn’t, it looks pretty bad pretty quickly, especially with a dirt cheap replacement behind him in AAA. Not sure it’s the best allocation of resources, but I could buy gambling on it if he keeps on going for a few months into the upcoming season– unless Gose absolutely takes off, too, in which case I don’t think it matters much what Colby does.

        • In your opinion, how likely is Gose breaking out to become a Michael Bourn type of player?

        • The Jose and Edwin gambles worked out. Jose was a little less risky, consider he had just smashed 54 homers the year before. Something just tells me that this kid is going to have a huge season, and will require a bigger investment to keep him in the fold beyond this year. If AA can sign him to a 3 year 30 million dollar contract, or even 3/35, I say do it in a heartbeat. At 27, his best offensive seasons will likely be the next 5 to 6 years. If he can continue his approach that he adopted last year, then I could live with the strikeouts, especially with how patient Jose and Edwin have been in the past.

        • Gose has very loud tools but his hitting and OBP need work. One also wonders about his makeup after a very mediocre performance in AAA. Cheaper yes but his glove, arm and legs aren’t enough to make him a viable option in centre field. At least not yet.

      • It’s money very well spent, but no reason to do it now. Can do it later this year.

    • That would not have been good news.

  2. Good on the Jays. I’m a little worried about a long term deal for Colby. I like the skill set but he’s way too inconsistent at the plate to give him a big money / long term deal that he may end up getting from someone next year.

    • I agree. Colby is a risky signing if I’ve ever seen one. He doesn’t even have Vernon Wells track record.

      The only thing is –> Who can replace him?? And if he does keep it up, he’s a good CF’er. I think it’s just damn-near a coin-flip… It’s a tough decision

  3. I always wonder if US guys get these scoops first on purpose to avoid any semblance of journalistic impropriety. Probably not?

  4. Those who think about Colby’s inconsistancy,need to remember what was happening in his down phase.

    • Flanal?

    • expand?

    • Garbage.

      • Bullshit Stoeten.
        Look at the reasons Colby wasn’t as good in 2011 and 12 and the reason AA was able to aquire him in the first place.
        Didn’t you write a post that his 2013 put him amoung the top 5 CF’s in baseball?

        • And the reasons are?

          Also: there’s a difference between being a top five CF for that season and being a top five CF. (Though I don’t know if I wrote that he was either — he was 6th in WAR and would have been higher with more plate appearances.) Not that any of that has any reason why your original implication isn’t ridiculous.

          • I don’t know if the words are wasted on you or not.
            Colby has said that he played out the string in 2011.Still refused to discuss anything about his time with TLR the following and admitted that TLR was in his head.It even affected his fielding with balls falling inbetween him and Jbau or the LF.
            He even went as far as to finally telling his dad to back off.
            In his zeal to correct what ailed him, he overtrained after games, to the point where he admitted it hurt his performance at the plate
            Confidence plays a part in a players performance ( or is all that Romero stuff we’ve been reading bullshit too?).
            Colby’s farther removed from TLR,his dad and his bad habits.He’s changed his batting stance and hits moon shots.His base running from first to third is rated one of the best in the game.

            • Good fucking lord, this garbage is really what you were on about? Even worse than I thought.

              You could have said he was tinkering with his swing for much of 2012.

              Oh, and who rates him so good going first to third? Is it from the same “insiders” you hear the same nonsense about the magic of clubhouse chemistry from?

              • So we should just take the stats for what they’re worth and not consider the conditions in which they were set?
                Wouldn’t be the first time you were wrong,using past performance to predict future performance, without considering that things may have changed with the player.
                Time will tell.

                • but RADAR the performance at the plate was about the same in 2012 vs. 2013 (based on the various components)… it is the results that were dramatically different.

                  • How is performance and results not the exact same thing? In 2100 & 2012 he was not good hitter in 2013 he was end of story.

                    • defense and luck play a role as to whether or not a batted ball drops in for a hit.

                    • Over 600 ABs the defence and luck should average out for the most part due to the law of large numbers. Him having a much higher BABIP in 2013 than 2011 & 2012 is much more indicative that he was hitting the ball better in 2013 than it is off statistical anomoly due to defence and luck over entire seasons worth of data.

    • last year he k’d almost 30% of the time… when you only put the ball in play 7 out of 10 times you need to be excellent on balls in play (or walk at an obscene rate) to be valuable offensively.

      last year colby was about 60 points better than league average (and better than his own career average) on balls in play without an improvement in his component numbers (like LD rate). anyone who bets on him being as offensively going forward as 2013 is a sucker. sure, he could be that good… but he’d have to improve significantly… and i’m not making either of those bets.

      • @ ryan
        Was that before or after he changed his batting stance and started hitting the shit out of the ball?

        • @ RADAR… overall i’d suggest that the component numbers were a little better in 2012 compared to 2013… at worst equal. if he really was better in 2013 with the new stance (better attitude, best shape of his life, new girlfriend, old girlfriend, religion… whatever) than i would expect it to show up in the component numbers not just the end result.

          the truth is probably halfway between 2012 and 2013. regardless of stance or whatever else. he was incredibly fortunate on balls in play in 2013 and equally unfortunate in 2012. everything else is just silly talk.

          • fortune on balls in play = religion

            • lol, ding… i just figured colby was dating a former miss america or something…

              • @ ryan
                I’m gonna steal a comment from a previous post.

                higs says: 01.13.14 @ 10:52 PM EST
                Reply And his k rates have fluctuated huge as well by 10% so that’s what happens. You subtract a larger number from the denominator and the ratio goes up huge.

                Most hitters who k a lot don’t hit for avg. Think jack cust or mark reynolds. Rasmus did the unusual thing of hitting for avg.

                1st pitch .354
                ahead .354 ops 1.123
                2-1 .522 ops 1.626

                2 strikes .187 ops .587

                He got a lot of hits before 2 strikes, then was mia with 2 strikes.
                He wasn’t doing anything special other than really mashing early in the count.
                He wasn’t getting a lot of 2 strike hits so no reason that he can’t continue hitting for avg.

                http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2014/01/13/should-the-jays-extend-colby-rasmus/

                • really? based on this rationale i’m supposed to believe that rasmus will sustain a BABIP around .360?

                  you do realize that almost every hitter in the league will hit better with the count in their favor… and that will be exaggerated when you have a flukey BABIP?

                  if he was really ‘better’ in 2013 why aren’t the component numbers appreciably better?

                  • This thinking he was lucky because of a high BABIP is retarded and really grinds my gears. He hit the ball really hard and so got more hits. It isnt hard to figure out. He swung and missed more and struckout more too. Big deal at the end of the day his production was way better, higher OPS and higher WRC+.

                    Debate whether or not he will be able to sustain being a good hitter and get that production but dont point to the fact that he was hitting the ball really hard and getting lots of hits on balls in play as a reason to expect he will not be productive. Make soem argument that he will nto be able to continue hitting the ball hard rather than just assuming he wont because most people BABIP is lower.

                    • @ Nick – to support your argument re. BABIP & colby ‘hitting the ball really hard,’ you’d have to document that he had an up-tick in line drive rate to remove the ‘flukey’ aspect, no? at least compared to previous years…if his line-drive rate has been the same/similar over the years, but his BABIP has fluctuated, then there’s obviously an element of luck there.

                    • Saying his BABIP fluctuated and there is obviously an element of luck there is mind bogglingly short sighted. Reverence to sabermatic folk lore that makes no sense whatsoever. Sabermaticians creeate metrics based on numbers and analysts use those metrics as indicators of performance and combine together with logic and reason for comprehensive analysis. The reasoning is often thrown out the window with this one particular metric whereby analysis simply ignores the fundamental action that the batter is trying to achieve – hitting the ball hard – and discounts their ability to do so.

                      Saying that it needs to be proven that it wasn’t luck is assinine. It needs to be proven that it was luck to justify such a short sighted statement. Line drive rates etc yes these should be analysed. What isnt tracked is how hard they hit it and that is maybe the most important variable. There is no unsupported justification to say this is based on luck over a sample of more than 600 ABs – that simply does not make sense. You might as well say that a guy hit 50 HRs and that was luck. Maybe it was and there was an incredible wind on more than half of them and they wouldnt otherwise have been HR but to say at face value the guy hit 50 lucky home runs is simply dumb. To unequivocally say he was lucky to get a lot of hits on balls in play is simply dumb as well. Then to say someone with low BABIP is bound to improve is equally dumb. Maybe they hit soft ground balls every time and that is why he doesnt get hits on balls in play.

                    • i know they track speed of the ball off the bat for homeruns and probably do for hits as well somewhere…Colby had the 4th hardest hit ball off the bat this year. Lawrie for the record had the 14th…http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php

                    • That would be really interesting to see how hard it was hit weighted into some metrics and could make for goodanalysis

  5. Rogers and Cecil avoided arb hearings as well.

  6. Ya I am pulling for a Colby extension too. I hear the arguments about money spent when Gose would be so much cheaper, but I get the impression (and the club clearly knows better than any of us) that both Colby’s floor and ceiling is much higher than Gose’s. He might not be worth 3 wins every season to justify 15 mil (or more) but it is a good bet he will give you more wins than Gose. Sure the possibility exists of them replacing him of the FA market if Gose bombs, but you can hardly rely on that – how easy has upgrading at 2nd been this year? Really at 15 mil per (as a likely starting point), isn’t that really just 2 wins a year in the new market, which is not unrealistic to think Colby averages that over the next four or five years or so.

    • We know what Colby’s floor is. 0.5 wins in 2011 and 1.1 wins in 2012.

      The dollar-per-win stuff is a bit silly, let’s not use that, because it’s not accounting for the fact that you’re spending those dollars on a CF when you have a dirt cheap one right behind, who is not as good, but who might actually have a HIGHER floor. Just because of defence and legs alone it would be hard for Gose to have a worse year than 0.5 wins, I think. Ceiling isn’t close, though, because he’ll never have anything remotely like Colby’s bat when he’s at his BABIPin’ best.

      • Right, I am not saying it is a cut and dry decision. I’ll leave dollars per WAR out, fair enough that is pretty subjective way of looking at value I was only using it to argue the money well spent bit – which is in itself subjective. Sure Gose’ defence will always give him a bump in WAR, but then again Colby will get a similar bump (although admittedly less of one) just for being in CF as well. I don’t think we, as casual fans, have the data to determine what Gose’ floor is just yet, though I am sure the org does have some value on him. But to someone who just looks at box scores after the fact, Gose did have a -0.3 WAR this year, although admittedly only in 50 games. If Gose figures it out too, then great we can move one or the other into a corner – we will need a LF next year, and Joey Bats won’t be able to play RF forever! I just think it is not beyond reason to expect Colby to average at least 2-2.5 wins per over then next couple of seasons, which to me would justify 12-15 mil per if that would get it done.

        • I don’t think, on average 2-2.5 is unreasonable, no, but there’s no way he’s going to accept getting paid like that.

      • “it would be hard for Gose to have a worse year than 0.5 wins”
        I’m not sure I share your optimism, Stoeten. His bat has been pretty damn awful. He can’t use his legs if he can’t get on base.

        Also, I thought Colby was looking pretty comfortable at the plate for most of last season, and his bat speed was fast as fuck. I really do think he’s gonna have a monster year.

        • On the high side it seems unlikely Gose is going to put up a 5-6 WAR season that Rasmus might.
          Whose to say Gose isn’t a cheap replacement for Cabrera and that frees up money not having to sign an expensive corner FA next offseason that could cost more than extending Rasmus?

      • What’s wrong with Dollars per WAR? Isn’t that kinda why WAR was first created?

        • Actually even the guys at FanGraphs admit it’s not perfect and isn’t always the best way to measure.

          • The market skews the $/WAR? Yankees are likely willing to pay / earn a lot more for a win than the Marlins.

            Depends on teams current place on the win curve and the potential for extra wins to lead to extra revenue? This one makes me leary of AA and constant valuation and price too high comments – Jays maybe in a spot where they need a couple players to become legitimate contenders and that could have big payoff for revenue if it makes the team win so a strict $/WAR valuation is undercutting real value to Jays and they should be more willing to verpay?

            The player and the balance they bring to a team need to be considered? For the Jays if there is a free agent 1B vs 2B a 2B with 2 WAR is much more valuable than a 1B with 3WAR in terms of how it upgrades their team. Then there is the player toolset and how it complements and fits in with the rest of the team. A team with nothing close to a leadoff batter benefits more from that type of acqusition while a team without a power hitter benefits from that acquisition more.

    • I think if the Jays are going to spend big money on a CF, they want to make sure they know what they’re getting. They can always wait this out and see what the season brings. No need to throw money at him now when they can spend another year evaluating him and Gose.

  7. Lawrie could be a real interesting case next year.

    • Absolutely.
      For the reasons mentioned in the post he likely won’t go to arbitration, but it will be interesting to see what kind of money is placed on the intangibles like the image of the ‘hometown/country boy’ and the franchise player they seem to be billing him as.

      I suppose it would also be interesting if 2014 looks like 2013: injuries and spotty performance.

      • The answer to that is zero. The arbitration process is pretty rigid. Players only leverage is that they can go to an arbitrator and argue they deserve more based on things like HR, RBI, IP, saves, etc. It’ll be pretty uneventful.

        • Sorry, a little bit unclear. I meant to say because he won’t go to arbitration, what will the Jays pay over and above what might be achieved at an arbitration that looks more at raw data and comparables.

    • It’s all going to depend on what the market for Red Bull and Maple Syrup does in the next year hopefully they he plays up to his potential and they have to pay up that would be best or everyone.

    • If he has a good year do you think they try to lock him up with a 4/5 year deal and 2/3 team options after that? Really is almost a no brainer for the player to take guaranteed money when they are just entering arbitration and havent hit the big payday yet. Guarantees they are set for life whereas they could get hurt and have made only 1.5M their whole career (only!) and they can sign a deal that still leaves then around 30 when they hit the open market for potential to really cash in.

      • In most guys case guaranteed money is huge unless they’re bonus babies then they have a little more wiggle room I would think. Also arbitration takes into account all 3 prior years so even if he has a monster year they’ll still save quite a bit in the first year and would be better served waiting to see if he can repeat it simply because so far he’s been prone to injury and the Jays take on most of the risk in guaranteeing money early plus that just seems to be the way the Jays want/have been operating under AA. ( not to say I don’t disagree with you. It would be a no brainer to save as much as you can with Lawrie as I think he’s gonna be a beast in his prime)

  8. Oh man, that’s an awful picture.

  9. You suck Stoeten.

  10. Hate to say this, but I get the feeling Colby is one of those players that has his best years in contract years. Those are the hardest situations for a GM forecast.

    worst case scenario though, he gets off to a torrid pace and wants to get paid for it. you trade him, have Gose step in. Of course you lose something with the bat, but you get better defense and + baserunning. The return from Rasmus would have to be an upgrade enough that the team doesn’t take a step back.

  11. I don’t think you can talk about the Colby extension without thinking of 2015 payroll. At first glance at Cot’s you think $96.2 million and there is a tonne of payroll flexibility. Add in the options for Morrow, Santos, McGowan and Happ (assuming they pick them up but at this point why not?) that adds $24.25 million bring the Jays to $120.5 million. Add the arbs of Rodgers ($3 million?) and Cecil ($2 million?) and then first time eligibles Lawrie ($1.5 million) and Delebar ($1 million) (All arb figures debatable) brings the team to $128 million. Could still be more through arbitration.

    Let’s assume AA does add an arm, what is the value on that? Remember that 2015 would be the second year of that contract, and likely higher than the first year. If he gets the arm for Lohse money ($11 million per), that’s the best case scenario, isn’t it? That leads us to $139 million. If he has to pay $17 million per, that’s $146 million.

    Baseball Prospectus also forgets to put in Lind’s option of $7.5 million with a $1 million buyout.

    So that’s $140-145 million for 2015 with no DH, LF or CF.

    Is Rogers going over the $150 million mark significantly? Is it a better idea to play Gose in Center and use the money for DH and LF?

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?team=TOR&cyear=2015

    • Or Gose and Rasmus in the outfield at the same time. Gose / Sierra platoon as 3rd,/ 4th OF.

      • Ouch!

        • Whats wrong with that? No point not resigning Rasmus / having Gose play center in order to have money to sign a LF when you can sign Rasmus and play them both in the OF unless whatever FA is better than Rasmus for similar money, which seems a little unlikely on the open market

    • They will probably be at that mark this year if they add a free agent starter. Also with all the arms on the way there’s nothing to say they can’t turn around and shed some salary in the case of someone like Buehrle and his $20 million. That would create a lot of room right there to do something and that’s not the only option, guys like Happ ($6.7 mil) and Santos ($8.0 mil) also come to mind. Even if 2015 ends up being the high water mark for payroll, 2016 doesn’t look nearly as bad.

      Again you look at the Jays farm system, there’s not a lot of impact depth among the position players like you see in the pitching. To me it makes far more sense to spend the money there when your farm system is so stacked with cheap pitching.

    • 2015 payroll could go one of two ways….

      1. They’re coming off a a great 2014, buzz returns, tickets sold, SN1 is subscribed to, and yes they go on a couple year run with this team around 160 mil plus or so because the revenue is flowing in.

      or

      2. The team is middling or not so good in 2014, buzz goes away, tickets not sold, SN 1 is not subscribed to, and yes they turn over the roster by trading some big contracts in hopes of retooling the team.

      Gotta wait and see, which is one of the reasons Colby not signed to a long term deal.

  12. When listening to the AA interview I noticed a few sound bites…..

    Right handed bat to platoon with Lind

    Back up CF

    Older established player looking to rebuild value for next year, but was looking for more of a full time roll.

    Could it be that he was talking about Vernon Wells?

    • Considering Wells can’t hit lefties very well anymore and has been an atrocious defensive CF for the last six years… I’m gonna guess no.

      • @ Philbert

        Wells hit LHP at a .851 OPS (yeah, yeah I know OPS) clip in 2011. He wasn’t terrible in 2013 .679 OBP. Add a little Rogers Centre mojo and a 800K investment doesn’t look too crazy.

        As for CF defence, it’s a back up role. He maybe older and slower, but he has experience with reads etc. for the position. Really he just has to be okay in CF for 15 to 20 starts, that’s not a crazy ask.

        Another sound bite that I didn’t mention was that of AA saying that he has many bullpen arms without options. Which may lead to a short bench due to AA trying to keep assets. Wells’ ability to play all OF spots plus 1B makes him more valuable.

        I’m not advocating this move per say, but adding up what AA said, along with the Jays current circumstance (subject to change), and it wouldn’t surprise me.

    • I can’t decide if I hate it or not. Leaning towards hating it big time. He does hit well in the dome and his power is still there. Maybe ? How much does a house on Memory Lane go for ? 2mill ?

      • 500K

        • It’s Chone Figgins. I think that they have been talking to Chone Figgins. Not sure if he can play centre field.

          • this message does not imply that i approve of signing chone figgins.

          • If it’s Wells or Figgins, then, fuckk.

          • If I remember correctly, they were talking about a bench bat during that part of the conversation. I don’t think “Chone Figgins” and “bat” belong in the same sentence. I think he could have been talking about Mark Reynolds who signed the following day with the Brewers. Fits the criteria they were talking about as an older guy who’s made some money in his career but is probably holding out for one last big contract and wants the playing time to earn it. Righty bat to platoon with Lind and a little positional flexibility (even if he’s shit defensively) at 3B and 1B. Could also have been Michael Young who fits most of those criteria except that he’s much older and is probably past the point of getting another multi year deal.

            • AA has put much emphasis on “knowing the player/coach/etc.” as of late, that why I think Wells more than Reynolds or Young.

  13. Btw, I just got the joke about the picture of Colby and the post title “No Extension For Rasmus”

    Hair extension right!? Amiright?

    • Nick Lowe’s old line could shed another light:

      “When I’m near you girl, I get an extension
      And I don’t mean Alexander Graham Bell’s invention”

  14. Jays payroll is at 132.5M for 18 MLB players with Romero in minors. Add in 0.5M for the 7 others making minimum at at about 136M currently. One FA SP will put them up to or above the rumoured 150M budget unless its front loaded.

    • I read on MLBTR a while ago the Jiminez was looking for around 14 million. Sounds good to me! And, you know.. we’re heard ‘around 150 million’ so who knows what the actual number is.

      Plus, if they really went nuts, they could dump Happ (5.2 mil) and probably get something decent for Jannsen (4 million) to clear close to another 10.

      • It’s funny that we have to talk about dumping a guy’s contract just like 10 months after signing a wholly unnecessary extension.

  15. so the braves are going to arbitration with 3 of their best players…. are they just broke now?

    • Sadly for Braves fans they have a horrible corporate owner who basically gives them the minimum and that’s about it. Think Rogers a few years ago.

  16. Jesus titty fucking Christ, Cleveland is moving Santana to third to clear room for Gomes.

    • probably moving to third to save him from being a useless catcher as well in a few years, but obviously Gomes would be nice in a Jays uniform…I may be alone but Id take Weiters off the Orioles hands. Oddly thats the hole we suck someone in in the off season. In my dream world Id still like an upgrade at SP, 2B and Catcher still.

      • With JPA on the team and Dickey throwing the ball, does Gomes get the opportunity to even become the player he did in Cleveland? I doubt it.

        • I agree, JPA ruined a lot of stuff lol. I had such high hopes for catching once JPA was gonna be moved aside…same as Napoli. He wasnt the player he became until texas, would he be the that guy with us? not with lind and JPA here. Perception of players can and do change quick in this game. look at Chris Davis. if he puts up 40 hr this year he could be on the same line as bautista and EE for breakout players, maybe not as good all round with strike outs and average but power turnarounds.

  17. Still more concerned with our 2b position than anything in the outfield. I’d rather we had Luis Valbuena on our team even than Ryan Goins.

    • Cmon man give Goins a chance. His defence deserves the right to see more from his bat. Why do we wanna run off an A type defender who is what 24years old.

  18. In this MLBTR post about whether or not the Dodgers would be able to take on
    a large Tanaka contract following the huge Kershaw extension, is a quote
    from president Stan Kasten.
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/masahiro-tanaka-rumors-friday.html
    “We’re still, first and foremost, concerned with the quality of the team we can put together, and adding it up comes second,” said president Stan Kasten. “This is a long-term strategy of ours. After five or six or seven years, it will make a lot more sense than it does to people looking at today’s snapshot.”
    Wouldn’t it be nice if upper management in Toronto thought that way?

  19. I am not trying to say the jays need to act now, but what concerns me the most is spring training starts at the end of the month. They are still in need of at least 1 pitcher. Still lots of time to sign 1 pitcher. The tanaka saga will come to an end on Friday at 5:00pm. And I expect the week after, we will see Garza, Arroyo, Santaana, and Jimenez. I think those 4 are playing ping pong with atleast a few teams hoping for Tanaka.

    Guys I am thinking might be waiting a while, Morales (draft pick), Burnett will he retire(?), Paul Maholm ( minor league to 1-2 mill, asking to much).

    If they do not get Tanaka, I would like to see them push for Jimenez, and if the price is to low, go for low ceilings Arroyo and Maholm together. Not great, but you have two decent inning eaters that if they completely go back to sucking you can go with the youth movement. I would be satisfied with the jays only signing Tanaka or Jimenez for the rest of the off season, but both Arroyo and Maholm would be decent med risk low rewards.

    • One thing is that neither Garza,Jimenez nor Santanna have been signed by any other team.One wonders about what is happening behind the scenes.
      Something I ‘ve been wondering about for awhile now is the commitment needed to land one these guys.Versus what is available at the end of 2014.
      Both Stroman and Sanchez are very real possibilities for the 2015 rotation.
      Only Dickey and Beuhrle are signed for 2015.Morrow has an option for 2015.
      FA’s at the end of the 2014 season include Scherzer,Lester,Shields,Masterson,Bailey also W Rodrigeuz,Peavey,Beckett. Also if JJ finds his mojo.
      Price will be on the block entering his last arb year.
      Not that the Jays will be able to sign some of these guys but some will sign with other teams,filling holes with those teams,with the others looking for a team to sign with.
      Are those options better for the Jays than what’s available right now?
      Dunno, just wondering.

      • going that route there are some low ball pitchers available maholm, capuano, suk-min yoon (free agent although some thinking rp).

        I still wonder how many sp do the dodgers need. they already have 6 and are in talks with tanalka and arroyo…

      • I think you can consider Morrow’s option as good as picked up unless he ends up on the DL for Tommy John surgery. At today’s prices for pitchers with his arm, he’s a relative bargain.

        As for the other guys I am sure it could go a couple of ways. More years at a lower AAV or less years at a higher AAV. I am sure the injury issues that AA mentioned will have a large part in the decision.

        I would really love for the Jays to surprise everyone and make a splash and sign Drew in addition to Santana or Ubaldo. I think it would be awesome if they’d announce it an hour after someone (other than the Yankees or Angles) signed Tanaka. I think something like that combined could have a similar impact as Tanaka without as much risk for about the same dollars.

        To me the beauty of having Drew in addition to another starter would be that you’ve got legitimate built-in insurance for Reyes if he gets injured again.

  20. Guys Nelson Cruz is the guy AA was refering too with markek gone away. Sign him now and lets mash.

    • I know there’s not a lot of love for Cruz around these parts but I don’t mind him in a DH/LF role. Insurance for Melky and can spell Lind against lefties. He’s probably looking for a 100 per cent starting job, but I think the Jays could get him quite a few ABs.
      Sierra would definitely be gone though in that case.

  21. So I see the news is out that the Jays haven’t submitted a bid. I’ve known about this for a couple of days now but before everyone goes off and freaks out on Rogers and AA they should know that they were flat out told by Tanaka not to bother.

    Believe me if you want. If not I don’t blame you because I would be skeptical as well. However, let’s just say the info comes from about as close as you can get to the horses mouth. I’m not a bullshitter and I really don’t have a reason to make it up. I think if you look back at a lot of comments I’m not a great defender of Rogers by any stretch of the imagination. I probably can even go so far as admit I’d be ranting about how cheap and Rogers is without the info that I have.

    When I pair that up with what I’ve kind of assumed all along, namely that the Jays and Toronto just don’t have the cache for those who’ve never been or played here, it makes a lot of sense even if I think it’s bullshit. It’s also no surprise that AA never mentioned it. As always, he usually doesn’t comment on potential targets.

    If one of his goals or backup plans was to get someone like Jimenez to drop his price, it surely wouldn’t help by letting them know ahead of time that they weren’t in on Tanaka.

    • I bet they stand pat this off season. These targets suck.

      • Honestly I don’t see the logic in it. They’ve got a great window with a bunch of guys in their relative prime among the position players and while there’s no sure thing among Garza, Jimenez or Santana I still think they’d make the team better. That said, from what I understand, Beeston said AA was “very humbled” after last season. If that’s the case you have to wonder if he’s not a little gun shy in making more aggressive moves like he did last year.

      • No Idea where you get that fact from sandlot. mlbtraderumors,rosenthal, buster onley, Joel Sherman, richard griffin, Bob Elliot, Jeff Blair, Law, etc, although discussing the jays as unlikely no where do I see the jays did not post for him.

        There is a difference between posting and winning Tanaka. Thus I call bullshit.

        • Source for the jays not making a bid?

        • Again that’s fine, unfortunately I can’t say for obvious reasons. If you check mlb trade rumours they just posted a list of the teams involved.

          • and that list, lists 6 teams and names 5…. so yeah….

            • I thought I saw 6 listed but miss read it. It only lists those 5 as active, but then that does not mean know one else has bid, or flying under the radar.

          • The MLBTR wording was a bit clumsy but my take from the article was that the Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, White Sox and Cubs are among those who have bid on Tanaka and nearly all clubs that have bid, have bid over 100/6. I don’t see how Nikkan Sports is allowed to leak this, but apparently the Diamondbacks have bid 120/6.

            I don’t think there’s anything in there that says the Jays are out, but having gone through the Darvish debacle, I’m sure Sandlot understands if we’re skeptical of any and all rumours. Personally though, I’m off the Tanaka boat. I just hope he goes to the NL.

            • Logic says that the Jays are out.

              There is no reason for Tanaka to pick Toronto unless the Jays eclipse everyone else by a wide margin when it comes to money. And well all know that won’t happen.

              There are better teams in more desirable locations that have more money that are going after Tanaka.

    • If Yu Darvish taught us one thing, its to believe everything you read on the internet.

    • If they were told not to bother, then why didn’t AA say as much in his radio interview the other day? Would have been an easy way to avoid the “rogers is cheap” brigade.

  22. Drunk Jays Fans, check out my sticks for the 2014 baseball season. I don’t fuck around.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/t3sr79gsgos2nud/IMG00527-20120703-1732.jpg

  23. Here’s a heretical thought for all of you freaks.
    AA has a green light to spend up the ya-hoo.
    and he’s playing a good game of poker,

  24. Any time now AA time to make a move to show Rogers isn’t cheap and can improve the team

  25. Where is the panic button?

    Oh, it’s broken?

    Too many fingers on it you say?

    Shrugs

  26. Better question for everyone is why in all adds I’ve seen this year on bluejays.com ect is Jose not in them? Last year he was in them all . Makes you wonder does it not?

  27. I hope AA is doing the under-the-radar Ninja thing behind the scenes – because, according to the “experts”, it doesn’t appear that the Jays are even in the running, dammit…let alone serious contenders.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/tanaka.html

    • Again it’s because they were told don’t bother.

      • “Again it’s because they were told don’t bother”

        That makes no sense… no one (except other teams that intend on bidding) has an incentive to tell the Jays not to bother. Even if there is zero chance he’d sign in Toronto it still makes sense to encourage a bid if for no reason other then to hopefully help drive up the price.

    • You didn’t really think the Jays had a shot at Tanaka? The Yankees and Dodgers are going to have a no holds barred back alley knife fight for Tanaka. With the Cubs hoping to jump in somewhere with brass knuckles. AA knows he can’t contend. Even his killer smile and smooth talk, ninja mode isn’t going to win the day in a knife fight

    • I think Pleskoff was re-iterating the report out of Japan that’s cited on MLBTR… don’t think this is a secondary source making confirmation.

      As someone noted above, AA was on the radio a couple days ago, and he could have shut the whole thing down then but he didn’t. If they learned anything from the Darvish fiacso (brings to mind the old saying about assuming) I’d think he would have tamped down expectations there.

      sandlot could be right… I’m just not inclined to believe much written by unknowns about this kind of stuff. No offense, sandlot.

      • AA has made it a policy not to comment on any of the players he’s in on or not in on for competitive reasons. How or why would this be any different especially in light of the fact that he’s trying to drive the prices down for the remaining free agents?

        If you’re Tanaka where are you going to go if the money is relatively equal? Some place that hasn’t been a winner in 20+ years or someplace that has? Not to mention the reputations of the cities themselves. Obviously Toronto isn’t a bad place at all but it will never have the cache of places like New York or California. It’s a pity they changed the rules this time around.

        • When asked about David Price he pretty much shot down any speculation that the Jays would be in on him because the Rays would be extremely unlikely to deal within the division. If Tanaka would not come no matter what, then why not say so and avoid the PR bomb. Instead he said “we’ll see” as recently as 3 days ago. Personally that tells me the Japanese report is bogus, or that they are overblowing this formal offer thing. There’s still a week to go, plenty of time to put an offer in. The bidding war hasn’t even begun.

          • Of course he’s not likely to come here anyways, but the idea that they wouldn’t try, or that Tanaka would throw a potential suitor by the wayside, or that Casey Close would not allow offers after this formal offer date (if it even existed at all) is ludicrous.

            • @Kevin It’s hardly ludicrous, it happens all the time, it’s happened to the Jays in the past. If you think of the life changing amount of money involved it makes all the more sense.

              I had my info a couple of days before the MLB Trade Rumors report so all that did was allow me to say what I knew since it was already out in the public. Parse their story however you like, or don’t believe it, it’s up to you.

              All I know is this isn’t the Darvish situation again where they were outbid. AA or Rogers shouldn’t be shit upon in this situation. Now if they don’t eventually pony up for another starter, well that’s another story.

        • Jeez Sandlot can you fix the spelling error in your username?It’s embarrassing.Have some self respect. And think of the children.
          Naw, just fuckin with ya.It doesn’t matter.
          I think you make a point about Tanaka.
          Additionally.It could be that AA is really really concerned about needing to go 6 to 8 years on the contract and said “fuck it,there’s better options coming up”.
          As I remember,when Darvish was posted, there was a report mentioning that every pitcher before him, from the Nippon league, showed a sharp decline in performance in the 3rd year of playing in MLB.
          In looking at the big picture, I’m not going to lose my shit over it.either way.

  28. Then just forget Tanaka – and grab one of the other available starters, if possible. One more quality starter would make this rotation pretty darn good – provided Mr. Murphy and Lady Luck don’t collectively decide to take a ginormous dump on the rotation, once again.
    I’d like another bench bat or two as well.

    PS…Needless to say, I don’t want much.

  29. Maybe this is why they did not go for Tanaka.
    http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/tor/dustin-mcgowan-looking-to-turn-corner-with-blue-jays-as-starting-pitcher?ymd=20140117&content_id=66802350

    And I bet Pleskoff is basing it the japanese article, which if Tanaka’s agent is in North America, and his posting team only needs to know how much he was posted from, makes you wonder where they get there sources on who formally bid over 100 million….

  30. I was worried about that report until I noticed the original MLBTR report said “these teams have made offers for Tanaka” as opposed to “ONLY these teams have made offers for Tanaka.”

    I was a bit surprised Seattle did not make an offer. I was also surprised at how low the offers are for Tanaka. 6/$120 isn’t that big of an offer. I’d have been happy with Tanaka at 6/$120. I was mainly worried the price would jump up to 6/$180. Yes, I know, the latter price is ridiculous, but with teams spending money like drunken sailors this winter, you never know.

  31. There comes a point when enough is enough. If you’re not in the game – then just fold ‘em and move on.
    You know that you’re not going to outbid some of those other clubs – so, at the end of the day, let the prom queen go home with one of them. All you can do is smile and say that you tried….and meanwhile, secretly hope that she gets real fat and butt-ugly in the future.

  32. “In case you missed it.. They never stood a chance. Jays out on Tanaka. Didn’t even submit a bid. As always, Ubaldo and Santana the targets”.

    From a supposed Blue Jays source on Twitter.

  33. I’ve lost all respect for Peter Gammons.
    The wrinkled prick.

  34. Well on a good note I’m heading to Cuba on Thursday….anybody you guys want me to sign while I’m there?

  35. I think it was very unlikely that the Jays would get Tanaka even if they had the highest bid.

    Tanaka wasn’t going to give up a chance to play in NY or LA to play in Toronto.

    I guess AA could have gone through the motions of submitting the $20million refundable bid
    but what’s the point.

    The Jays should try to go after Garza, Ubaldo etc….

    Can’t wait for spring training!

    • you don’t really know where tanaka wants to play do you.

      chicago submitted a bit, they are a far worse team then the jays, with similar climate (if that means anything) so no real justification to not submit a bid. you don’t pay the 20 million to bid, you agree to it and if you win then you pay it over 2 years.

      the goal of this jays administration has always said to be sustainable success, continuing to trade top tier prospects and missing out on FA’s that fill clear voids isn’t going to lead to that type of team.

      • @DC.

        I haven’t seen any evidence that Tanaka wants to play in Toronto. I don’t think the Jays would outbid every other team for his services.

        My view was that AA wasn’t going to risk 100 million on Darvish because he had no MLB experience.

        He isn’t to spend 120 million on Tanaka because he has no MLB experience.

        If its true that they made no bid for Tanaka, then AA opens himself up to the casual fans to blast Rogers for being cheap.

        Frankly, I agree with AA that’s its very risky to spend 100 million on any pitcher whether he is Japanese or American.

        The Jays would be better off spending 25 million to buy up the entire Tampa Bay Rays & Oakland A’s coaching staff & player development program.

        The key to success for the Jays is to get better at developing their own pitching staff.

        The injuries to the Jays pitchers over the past few years compared to the Rays or A’s or other teams cannot just be “bad luck”. Something is wrong with their conditioning program or scouting .

        I want AA to go get 1 more quality arm , so I don’t have to hear fans complaining about the 4th & 5th starter being question marks.

        Dickey,Buerhle & Morrow should be better combined than last year.

        I don’t know if Happ can be a regular 4th starter because he throws 90 pitches in 4 innings.

        I want to see Hutchison, Drabek, Romero, Todd Redmond & esmil Rogers & Stroman battle for the 5th spot, not 4th & 5th spot.

        I am tired of winter & want to watch baseball.

  36. I agree Oakville spring training is coming up quick. I’m not in the manic mood I was in last year at this time but I strongly believe we are going to have a damn fine year.

  37. Worst. Fucking. Hairstyle. Ever.

  38. Hi there would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with?
    I’m going to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a tough time selecting between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and
    Drupal. The reason I ask is because your layout seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something unique.
    P.S Sorry for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

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