Warning: apc_store(): Potential cache slam averted for key 'w3tc_blogs.thescore.com_1_sql_a30a4e808dfeb34c7045f58e15bf6e94' in /opt/blogs/wp-content/plugins/w3-total-cache/lib/W3/Cache/Apc.php on line 41 Warning: apc_store(): Potential cache slam averted for key 'w3tc_blogs.thescore.com_15_object_69be6f0f58698dc437fd681ecbdd920c' in /opt/blogs/wp-content/plugins/w3-total-cache/lib/W3/Cache/Apc.php on line 41 The Daily Duce: Wednesday, February 12th | Drunk Jays Fans | Blogs | theScore.com

dailyduce1

Mention those proofs again and just see what happens, Valerie.

“It would take something extreme for the [Clevelands] to re-sign free agent Ubaldo Jimenez at this point of the year,” writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer in what is not a repeat of every other story on this subject of late. “There has been no communication between the Indians and Jimenez’s agent, Diego Bentz, since the end of January. What’s more, the Indians value the draft pick they’ll receive for Jimenez if another team signs him.”

Marc Hulet of FanGraphs released his top 100 prospects list on Tuesday, and while the usual suspects line up about where you’d expect, there was an intriguing addition at the very end: Mitch Nay, checking in at number 100. He explains, “Nay is probably the biggest surprise in the entire Top 100 (you probably won’t find him on anyone else’s list) but I’m going out on a limb with him much like I did with Michael Wacha last year and that worked out pretty well. Nay has a chance to be something very special with the bat and should hold his own defensively.”

A pair of big season previews from Gregor Chisholm at BlueJays.com. In one of them he speaks with Alex Anthopoulos, who suggests last year’s internal improvements by the Red Sox as the hope for his own club in 2014, and then Gregor then guides us through three key questions for the season, and what the roster will look like — who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the mend, which prospects we should keep an eye on, and who might surprise us by making the club. In the second piece, Gregor goes position-by-position through the lineup with key concerns for the upcoming year.

Because of course Rogers wouldn’t have him join the Jays crew, despite the vacancies, according to Philadelphia Business Journal, Matt Stairs has joined the Phillies’ broadcast team. Jamie Moyer, who also has Jays ties (remember 2012? Moyer threw his last pitch as a pro to Yan Gomes in a 7-3 Las Vegas loss at Reno) will join them as well. (Link via the always outstanding Baseball Primer Newsblog at Baseball Think Factory).

According to Twopcharts yesterday was the fifth anniversary of @drunkjaysfans joining Twitter. We were so green to the medium that Parkes and I shared it at first, often tweeting contradictory opinions  from the same account– confusing, to say the least. By the end of the 2012 season we’d reached 8,600 followers, and now, less than 16 months later, we’re well over 21,000! Thanks for the support, and if you don’t follow already, do it! (Give me a follow at @AndrewStoeten while you’re at it).

Last night free agent Korean pitcher Suk-Min Yoon tweeted a picture of himself in an Orioles hat, causing most to figure that Baltimore had signed Keith Law’s 37th ranked free agent (just ahead of Kelly Johnson!) — a potential four or five starter, according to Law, though more likely a reliever, because he “wasn’t the same after the 2013 World Baseball Classic, returning to KBO late in the spring and eventually landing in the bullpen when he couldn’t regain his stuff as a starter.” Ken Rosenthal later tweeted to clarify that the picture may have been a joke.

Speaking of Keith Law, yesterday he released his top 20 impact prospects for 2014 at ESPN.com (Insider only), which includes Marcus Stroman at number 17. If that seems low, it’s because it seems like he doesn’t figure on Stroman making the club out of Spring Training, despite the fact that he might be one of their best five starters right now. Seems about right, even if a free agent is coming. Also of note: Esmil Rogers is referred among the club’s “pitchers who have proven they’re not major league starters” (which isn’t unfair), and he suggests that the bullpen, behind Casey Janssen, is anybody’s guess. I like the arms back there, but it’s hard to argue that there’s a whole lot of track record in terms of performance or health.

At Gamereax, Chris Toman goes in-depth on Ervin Santana, speaking to his repertoire, and how he would give the Jays depth and innings. Oh, and have you heard? Santana remains on the market.

Revisiting The Trade: BP’s Jason Parks tweets that it’s “hard to find many scout sources that believe in Nicolino’s ceiling. Command has to be really special to find success w/ avg stuff.” So… there’s that. (Syndergaard, tho…)

More prospect stuff, as Minor League Ball looks at the best hitting performances from players drafted in 2013, and includes — perhaps not surprisingly, given that he was a strong-hitting college senior in the Northwest League — Jays prospect L.B. Dantzler. “He has a very advanced approach at the plate, with a nice short stroke that’s quick to the ball,” explains Nick Melotte, who figures on Dantlzer possibly getting as high as double-A this seasons. “He uses a pull approach until he gets two strikes, then uses the whole field.”

Michael Hobson of the Vancouver Sun pretty fairly nails it when it comes to the Jays’ current predicament, despite maybe veering a few times into presenting things like facts that are just his reading of what’s going on. In essence: people are starting to believe the Jays may be OK with the pitching depth they currently have, but that message is just a cover in case they miss, and to imbue the back-end guys they’ve got with some confidence. He thinks it’s possible the Jays miss on Santana or Jimenez, but it would be a “tremendous upset.” Hard to argue.

At Fox Sports, Ken Rosenthal asked seven baseball execs, in the wake of the public coming out of NFL prospect Michael Sam, if they’d sign an openly gay player, and — shock! — all seven said that they would. That’s great and all, but I don’t think it means a whole lot, seeing as, what else were they going to say?

Great stuff from Jays Journal, where they go in-depth on what fans can expect from Dioner Navarro this season, and find that it’s not even necessarily all that horrific.

Nick Ashbourne of Bluebird Banter takes a look at where the Jays’ base running would have been over the last few years had Rajai Davis — who, you’ll remember, is now a Detroit Tiger — had not been here, and… uh… it ain’t good.

The Blue Jay Hunter takes an interesting look at the status of the Rogers Centre roof when home runs were hit in 2013.

Batter’s Box gives an excellent report from the farm.

Today only — as in Wednesday — the Buffalo Bisons are having a 50% off sale. Hit it up at ShopBisons.com.

Lastly, at Getting Blanked, Jack Moore reacts to Masahiro Tanaka’s introductory press conference in New York, and demonstrates that the Yankees’ latest Japanese hurler has nothing in common with their last, Kei Igawa. While we’re on the subject, a friendly reminder not to go back even deeper and darker into Yankee history and compare him with Hideki Irabu, as no one should wish that fate on anyone (Irabu committed suicide in 2011).

Comments (137)

  1. So early stoets.
    I appreciated it.
    Able to read the daily duce while taking my daily deuce.

  2. I strongly disagree with Law that the bullpen, behind Janssen “is anyone’s guess”…Cecil + Santos + Delabar + Loup is a preeeetty strong 5, with a whole bunch of quality arms behind that.

    • While I wouldn’t say I’m down on them, I do see the question marks. Santos has pitched 30 innings over two years for the Jays. Delabar had a 7.02 ERA in the second half last year (granted just 16 innings) and Cecil’s was 5.65 (14 IP).

      It’s pretty easy to say that Santos seems to have overcome his injuries – he looked amazing at the end of the year – and that we shouldn’t make any conclusions from Delabar and Cecil’s small overworked samples, but we can’t entirely dismiss them.

      • Didn’t Cecil and Delabar both spend time on the DL in the second half with arm soreness? I think that’s the big concern rather than a high ERA in a small inning sample.

      • While I agree there are question marks (especially with relievers), I think the depth and the amount of options we have is where the strength lies. We have like 5 guys who have the potential to flat out dominate, and behind them we have a good amount of guys who can pitch. I think the drop off late in the season was just due to the amount of work. Just like how Colby hit like 500 balls before every game in 2012, it can show in your numbers when you get fatigued late in season. While none of those guys pitched more innings, as a top bullpen arm you are warming up more frequently and on shorter rest, and the first half of the season tended to be heavy on them. Just a possible reason, not claiming this is 100% the problem.

        Santos, although a small sample size, showed some DOMINANT stuff in the last half of the season. I know that things can change, but assuming nothing flips around he could easily be the 8th inning guy.

        Even McGowan as a reliever last year sported more than a strikeout and less than a hit per inning. If you are an ERA guy then you’d find his 2.45 ERA impressive in 25 appearances (25.2 innings)

        Not saying all of these guys will perform, but it’s reason easy to dream up a pretty good bullpen. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trading away a reliever at the deadline to pick up a 2B or an injury replacement mid season.

        • The Jays starting pitchers were shit last year and because of that their bullpen was overused. (3rd highest IPs in MLB)

          As an aside fangraphs has their war at 3.3 (4th highest) in the 1st half of the season despite having the most IPs.

        • Agreed – Insofar as bullpen arms are pretty volatile you could say it is anybody’s guess how any bullpen will perform. The jays have a pretty good looking pen all things considered.

          @ Mike. Why wait until the last third of the season to upgrade at 2B? Do it now if there is a deal out there and comfortable trading surplus arms. By the deadline if the Jays are in the hunt there is bound to be some unforeseen area that needs improvement.

          • @Nick I want to make a move after we see what happens, in hopes of a playoff run. If we are in the race and Lawrie goes down with something terrible, is 2B really still our main concern? We can evaluate, see what we have and then trade for the biggest need. Also there is a chance we could have a couple guys in the pen struggle and then we have to play with what we have.

            Don’t forget that every year is full of surprises. I’m just saying we should see what we have before we start, now that we have waited this long.

      • Bullpens are notoriously fickle, too. The Jays have a strong ‘pen… hopefully they can repeat their success if not worked to death again.

    • i agree. the bullpen looks quite strong for next year. if nothing else, AA has ensured that the Jays have cornered the market on interesting bullpen pieces and depth starters.

  3. so how many people just googled ‘Mitch Nay”?

    and how many are now convinced we should look to move Lawrie in the next year or two and just hand Nay the 2016 starting 3B spot?

    I kid, I kid.

    • Could see him coming up as a first baseman or even in left if Lawrie is still at 3rd. Sounds like his glove is just passable at this stage.

    • He should be in full-season ball with Lansing this season, so we should get a better taste of what he’s capable of. I’m on board.

    • Bat plays anywhere, and he’s still 3-4 years away, we have no idea where Lawrie will be by then.

      I am surprised they said he could stick at 3rd. I rarely hear of guys at that level who were drafted as HS 3rd basemen being labeled as being good enough to stick there at this young an age. Remember how “bad” Lawrie’s defense was when he was in AAA? Whether it was the short grass in Vegas or him realizing it’s either 1B or 3B and working harder, I’m happy with how that developed. Another possibility is that scouts just flat out missed it.

      I liked the Nay pick when we drafted him. If I remember correctly, they said tremendous raw power (one of the best HS power players in the draft) but injury questions in his senior year brought down his stock.

      For a 20 year old in his first year of pro ball to show that kind of power with a wood bat out of HS is incredible.

      Still, I’d be surprised if he didn’t start the season with the A- Canadians (Maybe RK still). Maybe he will end in full season, but I doubt they will try and get him 400+ at bats in his second pro season.

      • At the Vancouver Canadians event in January, Anthopoulos basically told Charley Caskey that Nay would be in Lansing this season. And while he didn’t necessarily say “to open the year”, at least for me, it was implied.

        And for me, what’s most impressive is that power is supposed to be Nay’s calling card, yet it was his approach that was the most demonstrative in his professional debut. If he starts hitting bombs in 2014 like we know he’s capable, he could be a monster.

      • I do remember AA wanted him to work on his walk percentage but his defence seemed ok: especially for Vegas.

  4. One note that is probably worth keeping an eye on – Cuban infielder Aledmys Diaz is eligible to sign on the 18th, and is expected to sign quickly. MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweeted yesterday that “he could sign a deal next week.”

  5. considering the open bigotry that Sam has faced from some in the NFL, huge parts of American culture, and even his own father, I’d say that it is a pretty big thing that seven baseball execs went on the record to say that not only would they sign an openly gay player but it wouldn’t affect his draft stock. given the controversy, they didn’t have to say that but personally I’m very happy that they did and proud of them.

    that’s a big deal in a country with a sports culture that still embraces homophobia.

    • I agree with you, re: execs going “on the record”. The first stories that came out didn’t put anyone on the record who said anything contrary. Putting themselves on the record holds them accountable to their statements, so you can cast a side-eye at their words if you want, but they’ll have to speak for their actions if something like this were to come to pass in baseball.

  6. So if the team gets of to a slow start who gets canned?

  7. “what else were they going to say?”
    … well they could have said some of the same dumb shit the ‘anonymous’ NFL execs have been saying….

  8. What a shit pile of an offseason this has been. But I guess I can look forward to not seeing JP behind the plate again, and that is definitely something.

  9. I want to see a real baseball game!!! counting the days.

  10. So, that sale is kinda bullshit. I added a few items to get the order over $50 (two Ts and a hat) went to checkout, entered my info. Not only was shipping and handling to Canada $40, but the promo code “50DAYS” didn’t work. Ugh.

  11. In my opinion I think AA is off base hoping for a pitching turnaround a la the Bosox last year. Lester Bucholz had better track records vs the AL East and durability than Morrow Happ etc. Like it or not Farrell had history with them also and he probably made a positive difference. We’re counting on Pete Walker making an impact? Buerhle pitched to form and Dickey could improve but the team has so much ground to make up I don’t think they can do it without adding a piece(s). Furthermore, Bosox big improvement came from gutting overpaid players like Beckett Crawford and Gonzalez and replacing them with interchangeable parts who fit better (Victorino, Napoli, Gomes, letting Nava play etc.). That’s a lot of change. Comparatively we’ve done nothing so far except dump JP which is fine.

    I think AA is a really intelligent guy, but not the best judge of baseball talent. Wasn’t he after Dan Uggla a few yrs ago and hes on Grantland’s list of the worst contracts in baseball.

    • 100% agreed

    • Who’s Pete Walker? is anyone expecting him to do anything of note? Where do you get this idea that Happ is someone the Jays are counting on to perform like Clay Bucholz (nevermind Jon Lester)?

      Better questions:
      - Can R.A. Dickey perform like Jon Lester? Probably, but not definitely by any stretch.
      - Can Morrow be Bucholz? Yes, that’s the best comparator in the league today.
      - Will Buerhle be an adequate innings eater? No reason to think he can’t do it again this year after doing just that for the last 75 years or so.
      - Will Happ be a reasonable pitcher? Probably. No reason to expect him to be a Cy Young candidate, but also no reason to expect him to be Esmil Rogers, either.

      So yeah, the team’s got some pitching in place, and while another starter would be a big improvement over what they have penciled in for their next slots, it’s not hard to envision that rotation, if healthy, be able to have a great season next year.

    • You’re bang on with your assessment and I thought the same when I was reading that article. It’s crazy to compare the 2014 Blue Jays to the 2013 Red Sox. That team had elite talent but also winners. Guys that have won world series before I don’t see that on our team.

      I think the Jays have a better season than 2013, that’s probably the closest the two teams come in terms of being similar.

    • So much wrong here, even though the basic point, that hoping to repeat an historic turnaround is folly, is pretty tough to argue with.

      First thing that jumps out is the notion that Buchholz is somehow more durable. Then there’s the magical Farrell/not magical Pete walker thing that is based on absolutely nothing, and is agreed with only by the tools around here who look to jump on anything remotely negative, no matter how little sense it makes. And then we have the bit about wanting change for the sake of change, as opposed to actually looking at what happened last year, what pieces the Jays have, and what reasons for optimism there are — health from Reyes, Lawrie, Cabrera, and Morrow chief among them. And Grantland’s worst contracts? Skewering AA because of a rumour he once wanted Dan Uggla– which, since I have access to Google, I see happened before he signed his extension in early 2011???

      And people are agreeing here?

      • “..the tools around here who look to jump on anything remotely negative, no matter how little sense it makes.”

        Holy Fuck!

        + Billions and Billions!

  12. So grantland put this for a worst contract nominee
    SS Jose Reyes, Toronto Blue Jays: four years, $86 million

    • he’s going to feel really stupid when Reyes goes to the all star game and finishes 8th in mvp voting

    • It was a “Dishonourable Mention”. And there are 15 contracts worse.
      ps RR has the 12th spot .

    • Puts in perspective the potential over credit of the Marlins trade when also considering two fans are blasting other teams for signing big long term FA deals. Not saying it was a bad trade at the time but with benefit of hindsight the actual returns last year were poor and what is left going forward in Buehrle and Reyes on expensive contracts they may not have gotten on the FA market.

      • If only they would have looked at it in hindsight in the first place

        • Just saying hindsight with respect to saying now how it played out.

          Foresight allowed to be seen the escalating contracts of Buehrle and Reyes (and his significant injury risk on that long term deal), the uncertainty around JJ and him being on one year deal, the fact the Bonafacio was mostly a utility player on bad teams. At the time I didnt necessarily think it was a bad deal for the Jays but did think it was an absolute steal for the Marlins who basically signed Buehrle and Reyes to play for way undermarket value for one year then flipped them and Buck who was just recently signed as well, a utility player, a volatile guy on the last year of deal for a big return to rebuild the team not to mention the immediate relatively secure contributions of Esobar and Alvarez.

          • I still like the deal,
            Buerhle is a stud, and Reyes is electric.
            obviously had boni or JJ done anything it woudl have been great, but overall i think they’re still happy.
            I dont understand the hate for Buerhle,
            i bet if he posted identical numbers, but had a fastball of 95 mph, everyone would love him.

  13. AJ has signed with the Phillies, sad panda.

  14. That getting blanked link is off. The link is to the gamereax piece, and even if it went to getting blanked, the reader would discover that it was the equally-talented Jack Moore, not Drew, who penned it.

  15. @mlbtraderumors: Phillies To Sign A.J. Burnett http://t.co/l3BTZo54WH #mlb

    The jays really aren’t going to sign anyone are they?

    • Again, it doesn’t matter what the date is, I could have told you at the beginning of the offseason that the only guys the Jays would possibly be signing would be Ubaldo or Santana, and MAYBE by some miracle domino effect, Stephen Drew.

      All those guys are still available.

      • And Burnett got $16 m in Philly…
        We weren’t spending that kinda money this late in the offseason

        • What?? They’ve spent NO money, what does it matter what the date is, it’s not like whatever money they had to spend evaporated over Christmas

        • My thinking was that if they sagged AJ on a 1 year deal, it would be perfect for slotting Sanchez and/or Stroman into the rotation next year. And it would have only cost 16 MM as opposed to Ubaldo or Ervin at say 12/13 MM over 3 (iffy, mediocre) years.

          • There was no way he was signing here, it’s irrelevant

            • Agreed, unless we signed him for a much higher AAV, he wasnt coming here

              • It’s a one-year deal, there’s not really an “average annual value.”

                As for Burnett, nobody actually thought he’d come here, did they?

            • ‘No way’ seems a little too rigid. There’s always some amount of money that would get it done. I’m curious if $20M would have gotten them there. $4M is not an insignificant amount. Maybe not, and an overpay to be sure, but as Karl said a nice one year stop gap to Sanchez/Stroman. It would give you a good pitcher for a one year run with less risk than giving multiple years to an inferior guy.

              • Thanks Cowtown. I was wondering if there was a rule against hypothetical strategies that I missed. Obviously the rumour was that AJ wanted to play near his home, but he did pitch in TO at one time and I still like the idea.

    • Stop trolling with this negative fuck nonsense, please.

  16. Wait, so Phillies got AJ, Matt Stairs and Jamie Moyer???

    They’re going to have the best softball team!

    • I cant wait to hear matt stairs.

      odd that AJ signed with a bad team. You figure he would want to be on a competitive team atleast.

      • He got his WS ring with the Marlins and it’s not as if he’s never been on bad teams before.

      • the phillies are defintely old and frequently injured . not sure why they are necessarily bad. lee, hamels, kendrick, burnett.

      • MIght be a little off base to call the Phillies bad. Look at the rotation now and wait and see how the position players do with several guys who could return to form and be all stars again. They have a good chance to be a contender if things break right

        • their rotation isnt bad, but their offense, defense and competition makes them a non threat

          • Offence could be pretty good if Howard Utley Rollins perform plus Brown and Cruz are good hitters, Revere is decent speed guy and Ruiz is a pretty good catcher. Not going to argue on the defence!

  17. Why would Yoon have a Orioles hat if he didn’t sign with them.

    Who the fuck buys an orioles hat, even as a joke.

  18. Burnett to Phillies – makes a lot of sense I guess. They have money, love vets, and AJ apparently wanted to be relatively close to home and stay in the NL. Plus I wonder if his friendship or a recommendation from Halladay had a hand in it.

    Yoon seems to be headed to Baltimore, Twitterpic notwithstanding. He makes sense for them because they are cheap and he’s the cheapest option who might have a chance at being decent, plus the O’s are pretty weak at the back end of the bullpen, and Yoon has experience in that role.

    Leaves Santana and Jiminez, and Santana seems like a better fit for a non-Jays team. Jiminez to Jays I would think, which is what we’ve been thinking all along.

  19. This has little to do with the Blue Jays, but it is an interesting read on how teams are viewing how to pay for the closer position.

    Most observers were surprised when the A’s elected to trade for Jim Johnson and his $10m salary when they had cheaper and controllable closing options like Ryan Cook and Sean Doolittle in the fold.This article tackles the economics of that type of move.
    http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-paying-established-closers-saves-teams-money/

    It might be a factor in why Delabar seems to be behind both Janssen and Santos on the Blue Jays closer depth chart and may also be a factor in why teams looking for a closer might have preferred other options to that of trading for Delabar.

    • Meant to link that, actually. Interesting stuff, if a bit loooong.

      Janssen’s out of his arb years now, so doubt that was as much of a factor in his not moving, but interesting to think of it with respect to Delabar (though I’d say the hierarchy came about more organically than that).

  20. have a feeling that Seattle will be the ones to plunk down for Santana.

  21. If I were An agent of the last two standing I would keep waiting. At this point the player can still get his work in. An injury could happen in ST or a player that was being counted on to be a starter could look like shit etc.

    It could be my inferiority complex with players picking the Jays but given our stadium and standings last year we will have to pony up the most cash or be left with nothing. Which is okay since that is what free agency is about. I am starting to think the money is not there unless we get them at a price that is ridicules. I hope I am wrong but it is coming down to the wire.

    • I agree and think if the Jays are actually intending to sign one of these guys they are starting to walk on a tight rope if it goes into spring training. Maybe its a gamble they are willing to take and go with in house options if they lose. I for one think that is horse shit and want them to sign one or both rather than trying to hold out ofr a little less money in order to give the team the best chance to win this year (and in the future when they can potentially pay the minimum salary and arbitration to the young pitchers further into the future and have more flexibility 2016 and beyond)

      • There will not be reason to think that the money isn’t there until we know it wasn’t spent. As long as those guys are still available, it’s just a bit silly to speculate that way. If they can keep bringing the prices down, they should.

        • But the original point is the prices could go back up into spring training due to injury or performance issue on teams with payroll flexibility – while it was speculation that the Jays would be out if prices do infact go back up

  22. I think you’re right.

    Honestly, could someone explain what the big risk is with Ubaldo? I understand he’s not an ace or even a #2 but for a #3/4 option with upside at 13 million or less (assuming that’s where it’s at) – how is that not good value? There’s tons of guys making similar cash. What are the actual numbers that are worrying everyone? I’m no stat geek so honestly, what are the saber numbers scaring teams off?

    I was looking at his “traditional” numbers and his whip, walks, SO/9 and innings pitched were all excellent (not ace level). He had two bad years and in those bad years he still pitched at a solid #4/5 level. He’s also had 4 good years and looking at his numbers, he’s pretty consistently going to give you 8-9 H/9, 1.3ish Whip and 8-9 SO/9. His strikeout percentage actually increased last year. And I don’t buy that he padded his stats against shitty teams like the Twins and Astros…so did every other pitcher in the AL central and AL West.

    So really, what is it that scares teams off? His numbers outside of those 2 years are pretty remarkably close across his entire career (even his ‘ace’ days) and he’s a workhorse with low home run totals. Lincecum got 17M, CJ Wilson 16M, Arroyo 12.5M, Dempster 13.2M, Edwin Jackson 13M…I wouldn’t say all of these contracts are good – Lincecum, Jackson, Dempster are all too much imho – BUT…these deals were made by teams that needed the innings and security of a mid to back end starter. Jimenez is arguably as good and better than most of these pitchers and he offers upside that the rest of them don’t have. For 13 million the Jays get more time with their younger pitchers and security for an injury to their other vets.

    So the question is, are the Jays balking at a high AAV of 13M+ or too many years in Jimenez’s request? Or, as some of us want to think, are they being cheap and hoping to steal Jimenez at a Dan Haren like 10M/year? Cause I don’t think that’s going to happen…

    I’m picking my points to show what I like about Jimenez, seriously though, what are the numbers or reasons for such little activity on him? Someone drop some education on me cause it would be really great if down the road we could be talking about the Jays shipping an extra starter out of town for prized prospects or useful players of other teams.

    • Ubaldo was absolutely terrible for over a year- to the point that his team might have dropped him if this was a possibility. In fact, he really has been the beneficiary over his career of two half season runs in which he was virtually unhittable. Like Romero maybe, it sounds to me as though he is the type of pitcher who needs to be in the right mental frame of mind to be able to repeat his delivery and achieve success. He has a really high upside in that, when he is on, he is dominant- better than anyone. When he is not, he is terrible. High upside, low foor.

    • You asked so.
      As Stoeten pointed out in his post,few teams are willing to give a contract and give up a 1st rounder based upon the value of that pick.Of the teams that have a protected pick they either don’t have the need or resources to sign him.
      The price has continued to drop dramatically.
      As to why the Jays don’t scoop him up before the price becomes too tempting for other teams?.Only AA really knows.
      I got my own theory based on nothing but guesswork and mindless speculation.

    • Inconsistency, wonky mechanics and lost velocity are all reasons to fear a long term deal with Jiminez.

      You can discount much of his pre-2011 numbers because he’s clearly not that pitcher anymore. This gives you an idea of how he’s changed as a pitcher since his CY calibre years, both in velocity and pitch selection:

      2010 FB 61.4% (96.1) SL 15.4% (86.6) CU 9.3% (78.6) CH 13.8% (87.7) SF 0.0%
      2013 FB 53.8% (91.7) SL 25.0% (83.6) CU 3.1% (77.1) CH 8.0% (82.5) SF 10.1% (84.3)

      The new lower velocity, slider-heavy Jiminez has really only had success since about June of the 2013 season, so you don’t have a huge track record to go off of. More bad – the new Jiminez doesn’t keep the ball on the ground or in the ballpark as well as he used to. Astoundingly, he still generates plenty of strikeouts despite a very average or below swinging strike rate. He has done that the majority of his career however, so that’s not too concerning.

      Don’t get me wrong, I think he helps whoever he sign with, but there are plenty of reasons specific to him as to why the negotiation has taken this long.

      • This is a great response, thanks guys.

        Revolu: I wasn’t satisfied with the argument that his first half was crap. I went back and looked at the game logs.

        In April he had 3 bad starts out of 5.

        In May he had 1 bad start out of 5.

        In June he had 2 bad starts out of 6.

        In July, Aug and Sept he had 1 bad start out of 16.

        Kevin’s insight provides a much clearer explanation for those numbers that makes sense. Now it seems the only mystery is how much AA is waiting for prices to drop if they drop.

        Thanks again.

        • @ Daniel. I think it is good how you are breaking down the number of bad starts and think this is often overlooked when looking at stats. One bad start skews things so much. At the end of the day a mediocre several innings start say 5 runs in 5 innings resulting in a loss is nearly as bad as giving up 10 runs while getting one out (ignoring of course the strain on pen and fact that the offence more likely could outscore the other team in the mediocre start). I want the guy who completely blows up 1 in 5 starts while being very good otherwise more than the guy who is mediocre a lot of the time.

          A guy like Jiminez with the unorthodox mechanics this may be more pronounced as the odd time he simply cant find his mechanics and is terrible. Better than consistently medicore.

          • Totally agree. I also like that he’s pitched tough in Coors and has had to battle a declining velocity while maintaining high strike out numbers. Shows good ability to adjust.

  23. So, Bonifacio has cleared waivers. Presumably, he could now be had at someting close to the league minimum. I know that he was a disaster in a Jays uniform last season, but is there any chance that the Jays sign him as a potential 4th OF and/or to compete for a share of the 2B job?

    • I now see that the Royals are not on the hook for the whole amount of the contract signed last month (ony for $575M), so maybe Bonifacio can not be obtained as cheaply as I initially thought.

      • KC is on the hook for 1/6 of the contract. If Boni woulda been picked on waivers,that team woulda had to honor the contract.
        Boni is now a FA,able to sign with any team at any negotiated rate.

      • Would guess that he signs for somewhere between $2.5-$3m. Speed off the bench and versatility play well in either league. Got to be half a dozen teams, possibly including the Rays, Orioles and Yankees who will at least be kicking tires. I’d like him as a replacement for Rajai. He’d be cheaper than the $5m Rajai got in Detroit.

    • nah there’s no chance. In a vacuum it would make some sense, but Bonifacio is water under the bridge for the Jays. They sold him off for peanuts less than a year ago, his feelings for the Jays and their turf cant be great, and it would be a bit of a PR bomb to bring him back too.

      • Im on board with bringing him back – dont see it as a PR bomb if he is signed at the minimum to be a bench guy. He still in a legitmately better option for a 4th bench guy than others. Dont think necessarily he has ill will for the Jays after last year, he got lots of chances and didnt perform, not the Jays fault and he seemed to get along with the other players and enjoy himself.

        • If he could steal bases with us properly again, I would be down, so as long we don’t make him a regular

          • Can’t see Boni especially when Gose costs nowhere near him and is a far better outfielder. As far as 2B is concerned the guy was SO bad they had to bring Robbie Alomar in to teach him how to turn a DP. One guy on here took the username “Another Bonifacio failed bunt attempt” (or words to that effect)
            Who the hell wants to bring in another “work in progress?”
            No thanks.

            • Gose is a work in progress that would be much better served in AAA trying to improve hitting with regular playing time than sitting on the bench coming in to pinch run which Bonafacio could do.

  24. Apparently AJ to the Phillies so he’s out.

  25. Wow I’m way behind the times! Old news is no news.

    So I guess that leaves Santana and Jiminez. I don’t like either of them.

    • I’m not a huge fan of either, but I would be happy with Ubaldo. I have almost no interest in Santana… he makes me really nervous. Having said that, he has had a lot of success in this league, but I really can’t see his skills translating well to a homerun park.

      • I’m thinking Seattle makes a run at one of them with Iwakuma not being ready to start the season and they already had little starting pitching depth.

        • angels offered garza a contract as well.

          they may not like giving up a pick but they are built to win now, so if the prices fall i could see them landing Jimenez

  26. That Blue Jays Hunter article is interesting. Unfortunately it would be WAY more interesting if it weren’t riddled with spelling mistakes. Seriously guys, how fucking hard is it to distinguish between the words “closed” and “open”?

  27. If jays are out by the break it might be time to find a new gm and start selling

    • Obviously the GM has a job to do, but his job is 100% reliant on other people.

      Perhaps, AA didn’t need to make those trades last year, perhaps we were better off with the prospects, but that’s hindsight.

      The deals at the time were considered huge wins, not because we ‘won’ the trade but because we added high end MLB ready talent an already pretty talented team.

      I’m just not willing to fault him for the struggles of his players. AA’s done a lot of good in his time here, one season shouldnt write that off

      • @dc
        That is entirely a cop out. Anybody needs to have accountability for the results they are responsible for so to say he is 100% reliant on others as an excuse that he doesn’t have to be accountable is complete garbage. IF that is the case no manager in any position should ever be fired for lack of results. I’m not saying he should be fired in this scenario but it would need to legitimately be considered. Thus far he has failed to produce a winner, if he does again this year to a significant degree it doesn’t matter what people thought of his moves and reasons why it didn’t work out. The bad luck cop out only hold water for so long. It is his job to make moves that lead to the team winning and if that doesn’t happen it is on him to a large degree and that is entirely fair.

        • um no.

          Managers are fired because they sometimes have to take the fall, but Managers do make in game decisions, lineup decisions, bullpen decisions that can ultimately affect a player and the team. Albeit not to the degree that many believe, but it is there.

          as for your claim that im copping out, I rebuttal that by saying you’re an alarmist. Firing AA doesn’t make this team better, in fact depending on who you hire, you could make this team worse. A baseball GM doesn’t have things his way for a year or two after he’s hired, sometimes longer, so to just turn around and fire him now would be foolish.

        • AA and Beeston always said from the start they were going to build internally via the farm system which JPR left in a shambles. Last year would’ve been the 1st that we saw guys like D’Arnaud but even Syndergaard isn’t in the bigs yet.
          AA has traded some of his picks for MLB starting players wherein he hoped to speed the building process ( and plug some glaring holes in the BP and rotation) but 2 bad years of injuries have done that idea in.
          I don’t doubt there’ll be calls for his head if they don’t get off to a good start, but canning him would be a very bad idea.
          Btw in 2010 AA drafted 7 players in the 1st 80 picks; in 2011 he drafted 7 in the first 75; in 2012 he drafted 5 in the first 60. He has been a wizard with the draft and I can’t wait to see what the team looks like in 2 years.
          One more thing. JPR had 8 years to build/buy a winner. AA will have had 5 in Nov of this year.

          • I agree AA has done well with the draft. I was referring to any generic manager in the workplace (not baseball manager) needing to be held accountable to results and using the idea that they are 100% reliant on others to not hold them accountable is garbage. Saying well you cant fire a guy because whoever you hire could be worse doesnt fly either. At what point would you consider that the GM should be fired? After 2 more years of mid 70s wins with 130M+ payroll, after 5?? Jays fans loved JPR in his first years, they increased payroll had a very competitive team that just missed out, he was canned now is spoken about like he was completely terrible. Sure hope it doesn’t happen but this is exactly the path that AA is going down now with much less success thus far.
            His record is not nearly as good as you are giving him credit for. If they tank this year then how is he absolved from responsibility, he put the damn team together.

    • I agree with you on the selling if they are out at the break, maybe on the fence a bit about canning AA.

      Could get a huge return selling off Bautista, EE, Reyes, Dickey, Buehrle, Rasmus, Cabrera, Morrow, Lind, Jansenn. Just blow it right up and get as many prospects as possible. Could take the route of getting mostly low minors guys for them to add to their stockpile there, focus on developing those guys. Kick in cash to get the greatest return. Going forward throw profits in the bank to sign FA in the future when team is ready to compete and hope for a powerhouse young team in a few years. Be terrible for a few years and get top draft picks. Wouldn’t be like this previous rebuild under AA where there wasn’t much in the farm to begin with and not many big assets to sell off to stock it.

      Of course in this scenario likely not all the vets maintain the value they have now but seriously if all these guys were traded that could be a tremendous amount of future potential coming back. The Marlins are the only ones I can ever remember doing this after they won the world series then they won the world series again not so long after. Im sick of continued mediocrity and not stacking up against Sox and Yankees.

  28. Btw fuck grantland for making fun of the jays

    • lol, ok.

    • They made fun of 20 or so contracts of which 2 were Jays. But those Pujols, ARod and Fielder contracts have to be the worst.

    • This is the same moron as “this is where the username goes,” who spends all the rest of his comments shitting all over the Jays and fake wondering if AA’s time is at its end, FYI.

  29. While I was looking for the PTS link from yesterday, I found this video interview featuring Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez (who i’ve never seen in an interview before) on the FAN website.

    My initial thoughts to this interview: Stroman comes off as well put together and confident. Sanchez…let’s just say someone should get him on Dorfman’s program to develop that “killer instinct.”

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jays-future-bright-in-stroman-sanchez/

    Favorite Highlight:
    Jamie: “If there was something that you could have that Marcus already possesses, what would it be?”

    Aaron: “Hmmm….probably that smile.”

    Marcus winks, completely aware of the awkwardness.

    Jamie (To Aaron): “How about a pitch?”

    The kid’s young, that’s for sure. Can’t wait to see him take the next step.

    • getting stroman where they did was a steal. and didn’t they have that pick from failing to sign their previous 1st round pick.

  30. Too bad about Burnett.

    At the end of the day being only 1.5 hours away by car to his off- season home in Maryland for Philly seems like just too hard of an obstacle for Toronto to have overcome.

  31. Burnett to Phillies is great news for Jays fan, I never really saw him as a good fit here unless it was to round out the rotation and be a guy where little is expected… that seems t be how AJ thrives… Now AA please stop nickel and diming and go get Jimenez.

    • Could you maybe make yourself familiar with the last two seasons of baseball before bothering with a comment like this, please.

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