santanaheavens

WHY WON’T THEY JUST SIGN ME?!!???

This is normally the kind of post I wouldn’t bother with at this time of the season, but this has been no ordinary off-season, and while camps press on for some, the long cold winter lingers for others. Particularly, the remaining free agents with a compensation pick anchored around their market value’s neck. Stephen Drew remains out there, as does Ervin Santana. Both are obvious upgrades for the Jays at positions currently slated to be occupied by fucking tomato cans or should-be minor leaguers of need, and so of course the Jays appear to have no interest in signing them.

Appearances, of course, don’t really matter — and not just because evidently nobody else is willing to step up and meet prices being asked either. It’s whether they actually get the players signed that counts, but we’re long past the point of actually believing the Jays will end up doing a thing like that. Y’know… even though the difference between the two and ol’ Replacement Level Rogers and Redmond and Ryan “Isn’t” Goins “To Hit” might literally, actually, literally be on the order of five or six wins, which could absolutely be the difference between success and failure for these 2014 Jays and, ultimately, a front office and perhaps the entire project that the Jays embarked on with the hiring of Alex Anthopoulos in October of 2009.

Yes, that’s all a bit grim, but these are frustrating times, and not only for Jays fans, perhaps. Ken Rosenthal’s latest tweet suggests that Santana is considering change of agents, moving away from Bean Stringfellow of Proformance, who is, of course, also the agent or Jose Bautista. Thing is, though, Jay Alou also works for Proformance, as a managing director and Head of Latin Baseball, and … uh… he doesn’t seem to have heard the same things Rosenthal has been hearing:

Of course, what else is someone in that position going to say? Except… well… nothing. So I kind of tend to believe Alou here, even given Rosenthal is the gold standard for reporting this kind of stuff. I tend to believe the frustration in all this, though, too, and can’t help but wonder if maybe this little piece of innuendo is some form of gamesmanship, passed along to cause fissures between Santana and his agent, and maybe break their unity on what is an acceptable deal to… er… accept.

That’s just spitballin’, obviously, but it certainly does seem like the league is content to keep making him wait in hopes that Santana and his camp will crack. Jon Heyman wrote this afternoon for CBS Sports that “Santana’s agents remain in contact with the newly aggressive Orioles and at least four more teams.” That list includes the Jays, despite the fact that the GM, according to Gregor Chisholm’s excellent transcription of comments from Alex Anthopoulos today at North Of The Border, says he doesn’t “think we have anything active.”

Like Alou, though, what else is Anthopoulos going to say? Which isn’t to encourage anyone to get his or her hopes up about a last minute swoop for Santana, but… well… someone’s going to land him, right?

I dunno… maybe this is still a thing to pay attention to? Ugh.

Comments (137)

  1. It’s possible they’re both right. Rosenthal says Santana considering a change; Alou says as of right now there hasn’t been one.

  2. It is insane that the Jays (arguably I guess) are in dire need or help for their rotation and at second base. They lucked out with the draft pick thing, and have the opportunity to sign a decent (hell, sometimes good) starting pitcher and pretty good second basemen to contracts that look stunningly reasonable compared to some of the deals being thrown around these days.

    They have a nice opportunity to get help in areas where they need it. And they’re seriously not going to take advantage of that? Why the fuck not? Seriously.. why?

    Would it surprise anyone if (as you say) the different between Santana vs the worst starter on the Jays staff in 2014, and the difference between Drew and Goins ends up being 4 or 5 wins combined?

    After all they did last offseason… after they traded Syndergaard for a 38 year old… you SERIOUSLY are not going to get these guys on the cheap and improve your team?

    Wwhhhhhhyyyy not?

    • Those players want contracts that will pay them more money than the Jays value them at.
      It’s simple reasoning whether you agree with it or not.
      Move on.

      • If that is all it is the reasoning is retarded and the whole front office should be canned. These players fill obvious positions of need and are out there for below market value. if that is more than the jays value them at in a win now year after overpaying for dickey and taking on bloated reyes and buehrle contracts to try to compete just last year then they are terrible evaluators. Think it is much more likely the payroll has been capped because coming off 75 wins meant risking losing money amd payroll is going up without acquisitions

        • Maybe Hutchison or Stroman are going to be better than Santana. I wouldn’t bet against it, nor do I think paying a pretty undesirable shortstop money to try and play second base.

          • It doesn’t matter how good the young guys are. If you can add assets in a position of need at below market values you do it.

            Unless you’re either:

            A. An idiot
            B. Broke

            And AA isn’t an idiot.

            Per MLBTR Nick Franklin can be had for SP depth. Santana would give us more of this and maybe help swing a deal for a young controllable top 2b prospect. Long teen very good for the payroll and Santana/Franklin certainly looks better than Happ/Goins.

      • Jawn, I agree with you that they’ll sign more than what they Jays value them at, but that doesn’t mean that the Jays aren’t wrong in their valuation of those players. In today’s market, Santana’s probably worth $15-million per year. Drew is worth $12-million.

        In my opinion, either Rogers has closed the wallet and said “no” to more spending this year, or AA is dropping the ball in terms of scouting his team’s needs and the internal options available to fill them.

    • These players aren’t locks to give you their career average production. Historically, their production has been volatile from year to year. We need solid production now. I really do not believe Ubaldo was worth the contract he got, because of the risk. It might end up a team friendly contract, but I doubt it. Not to mention Santana would give up some HR’s in the AL East, which we don’t need.

      What we need is a front line SP. That said, Santana for the right price wouldn’t be awful. There’s some evidence to suggest he’s becoming more of a control pitcher and the groundballs look decent the last few years. He’d be your #4 guy and if you’re having a good season (ie Morrow’s doing well/not too many injuries) you pull a mid season trade for Cliff Lee or the Shark.

    • It’s simple mathematics here, people.

      Rogers owns the Blue Jays.

      Rogers spent $10 billion on TV hockey rights.

      Rogers values hockey over baseball now.

      Blue Jays = sad face

      • I have no idea why people think the NHL deal has anything to do with the Blue Jays. It’s like saying “I can’t order a pizza for dinner tonight because my parents just bought a new house.”

        • That’s a terrible analogy. A more proper analogy would be I can’t afford to order steak tonight as I ordered steak yesterday, so I’ll order the chicken.

          In any event, I agree with you, it’s obviously not the case. A business just doesn’t operate like that – if there was value in spending X amount of dollars in terms of recouping their investment, Rogers would do it, regardless of the sport, media division, or department.

      • Let me guess you are not a mathematician but are a business guy? That math is entirely missing any logic but Im sure with enough conviction and energy you can convince some morons you are right

  3. I know they don’t like 4 yrs at 50. But why not 3 for 36 with an option. Or even 3 for 40 and backload it a tad. AA always talks about adding depth. Why not add a 200 in pitcher and give yourself a little flexibility.

    • It’s just very possible he might be about the same or even worse than the guys they already have making league-minimum.

      • You could make that argument about any pitcher on any team, though. Pitching is fickle. I think that Santana’s main asset right now is that he can reliably give you a ton of innings, which should be welcome for the Jays, given that they’re giving the 4th spot to Happ (who I like, but isn’t a 200-inning guy), Morrow who may not be able to pitch 200 given his diabetes, and likely a rookie or Tommy-John recoveree in the 5th spot.

    • Your assuming he’ll accept such offers.

  4. Realizing the importance of taking what gregg zaun says with a massive grain of salt. He mentioned on the radio last week that Santana’s medicals dont look very promising and he’s probably a year away from tommy john. Whatever that’s worth.

    • Well everyone knows he’s been pitching with a partially torn UCL since forever. Maybe there’s something that’s making teams believe his arm is about to fall off, but virtually every pitcher is in that situation. All are walking time bombs.

    • So Zaunies a doctor now?

      If he’s not talking about catching I care very little about what Zaun says.

      • I can’t stand Zaun and don’t put any stock in anything he says, but if he says something like that I would assume it’s based on what he’s heard as opposed to his own personal diagnosis.

      • I wouldn’t even take his word on that. He also said on the radio yesterday that Navarro’s value defensively could be valued at “a run per game”.

        And he said, seemingly with no idea just how insane that was.

        • Wow, compared to who – me? How much is either Molina worth – 10 runs a game? Is Navarro considered average defensively? Not saying he is bad but realistically look around the league there are a lot of good defensive catchers and Navarro isnt exactly considered top tier defensively.

  5. The truth of the matter is that Santana, and others, turned down $14.1 million like it was chump change, when really it is a life-changing one year salary. And second, the new structure is designed to make it harder for someone like Santana, who really can’t be relied upon in the long term, to leverage one good year into a long term contract that he doesn’t really merit. If it was ‘just money’, and not a draft pick, then the only teams in the bidding would be the ‘it’s just money’ teams. But they also have to think twice before giving up salary, luxury tax, revenue sharing and a draft pick, all for Ervin Santana.

    Santana is proof that the system works, not that he QO system is bad. He should have taken the $14,100,000 for 2014. If he put together another good year, he’d get a longer deal. If not, then he doesn’t deserve one for one good year.

    • This.

    • Well said JB. Everybody listen! lol

    • Completely agree. Nelson Cruz lost $6 million by turning down the QO. Santana may just have to settle for something similar.

    • I agree JB, and that may be why he’s thinking of changing agents – clearly they convinced him he could do better than 1 year/$14.1 mill, especially if the rumours are true that he was looking to top $100 million at one point.

    • Well said. The QO system is working and I can’t believe the rhetoric saying that it should be reviewed. Maybe the system changes during collective bargaining but the players will have to give up something else to get that changed.

  6. Ryan “isn’t” Goins “to hit”. Fucking gold!

  7. I think the purse strings were snapped shut after the post season started. When our tight lipped GM comes out and says we need a couple of starters, one has to think he knows the price of admission in both FA money and trades.

    I was thinking Santana, Ubaldo and Garza had a good shot at Anibal Sanchez type money. If you told me that all three could be had for 4/50 and we didn’t come up with any of them with a protected pick at that, I would have to think money was a big issue.

    If we lose one of our top four then you are looking at two “kids” taking over in the rotation. Given the last two years of pitcher injurys we could be looking at three. Another 200 inning pitcher like Santana would be invaluable.

    I just can’t buy AA’s change in face of how good the same pitchers are now that were not good enough three months ago. If Rogers said no more money than what can he do.

    • Fully agree with your evaluation except aa being tight lipped. He was running his mouth early in the offseason and didnt produce results he was speaking to plain and simple. If that is because rogers capped payroll afterwards it is still aas blunder. He needs to be more tight lipped if this is just poor pr or he is a lying deceptive asshole if there is some nefarious rationale to this.

    • I consider myself the type of fan that doesn’t panic, and I like the idea of grooming our own kids to contribute year after year; you can’t always rely on free agents.

      But, I’m concerned if the lack of activity has to do with ownership refusing to put more money into the team, for one simple reason – are they refusing to spend because they want the flexibility to tear the team apart if the season goes south before the All-Star break? If they don’t add any long-term free agents, they know they can move certain players in the event that the season tanks. I think this is a longshot, but you never know. I think the front office and ownership know they don’t have the longest window here to compete; Buerhle is older, Dickey is older, Bautista is entering the decline of his career, Rasmus may demand a 9-figure salary, Morrow is a free agent and Lawrie is entering arbitration. Reyes isn’t far from entering his decline, and you can argue that now would be the time to move some players like those above at their highest value.

      I’m not a proponent of this at all, but if you think of the fact that the Jays are 3-4 years away from being able to replace most of their current players with kids in the farm system, and may not have replacements for some positions (SS, 1B, OF other than Gose), they may want the options of pulling the rip-cord this year and restocking the farm again. That said, the Jays rotation in 3-4 years looks fucking amazing.

      Again, not a proponent of this – just spitballing and irresponsibly theorizing.

      • I agree it seems the money has been cut off (but why no trade with Seattle for 2B?). Dont think it is about long term flexibility but more about not losing money this upcoming season. Even if they signed a few FA to 3+ years they could still blow up the team and have a low payroll while keeping those guys in the fold for a year or two.

  8. The man is a giant dumbo. If he wants 4 years at 50 mil I’m sure he’d also take 4 years at 48 mil. Had he taken the QO of 14.1 mil for 2014 he only needed to sign for 3 additional years at 11 mil and change in 2015.

    In 2015 the pitching FA’s market is weak and Shield will be seeking 20 mil a season money which makes Santana a super bargain at 11 or 12 mil a year especially if he got more wins than Shields in 2014 when they were both playing on the same KC team. KC also has a shot at the post season which would only increase Santana value. if they made the playoffs and they could win it all, too.

    Now, folks, this Andy fella running this message board holds grudges just like Martin St. Louis and it isn’t right. Andy is super pissed at me because I was 100% correct aboot how lousy the Jays would be last year and Andy was 100% wrong and delusional to think the Jays had a hope in heaven of doing anything with that line up. Because I was so right and Andy was soooo wrong Andy keeps deleting my messages.

    Get over it Andy and grow the fuck up.

    • You’re either a totally stupid egomaniac, or you’ve totally lost you’re fucking mind.

      • Choices Choices
        Ummmmm I love this game.
        I pick the first one.
        No No I changed my mind It’s definitely the second one.
        That’s the one.
        He’s totally lost his fucking mind.
        I changed my mind again.
        Can I choose both?
        Yes, he’s definitely both, a stupid egomaniac who’s lost his fucking mind.

    • “…especially if he got more wins than Shields in 2014…”

      Yeah, you’re just completely on the wrong message board man. Save yourself the time and effort.

  9. Well, AA is revisiting his plans about bringing Happ up as a starter, so you have to wonder if that changes the Jays valuation of Santana as well?

    I mean, maybe earlier they thought Happ would come North and bring 1.5 wins this year and Santana would bring in 3 if he came. But, bringing Santana would cost Happ. So, then they’d only want to pay Santana the $$ for the incremental 1.5 wins he presents.

    But now, if Happ is replaced by someone the team expects to bring 0 wins, then Santana brings an incremental 3 wins to the team by knocking that guy out and all of a sudden, the valuation on Santana can change.

    I’d like to think that could happen, but from the way AA speaks, it seems like they have a valuation for Santana based on him versus a generic replacement level player, not him versus the Jay that he would replace.

  10. Rogers is fucking us sooooooo hard

  11. Cool another blog about Santana and people rationalizing why the Jays are being cheap and won’t sign him… but hey lets not talk about this because folks will get angry up in here.

    We’re perfectly fine with J or JA or whatever Happ shitting the bed as the 4th starter, he was mediocre last year before he took a shot to the dome then fucked up his leg so that’s gotta mean that he’ll be just as mediocre this year right?

    • Guess you figured it out for all of us.
      You can go to bed now.
      Go now, before the drugs wear off and you realize what foolish things you’ve said and you get all emabarassed.
      It’s okay,off to bed you go.
      Good night.

    • Rationalizing is what fan-boy apologists do. What do you expect.

      “Improving the rotation is our top priority.”
      Remember who said this? Was he full of shit then or is he full of shit now?

  12. AA is certainly taking a gamble. Obviously he is either going to be a genius because he stood pat and will say we knew what we had along, or the Jays pitching staff still won’t measure up and he and Rogers will look very bad. I will feel bad if it’s Rogers clamping Dead Ted’s Bottomless Wallet shut on his hands after being told he can take what he needs back in October. Of course, if it’s the ridiculous valuations he supposedly puts on FA’s then that’s another story. It will be interesting to see if this season does in fact go south, just what story the media comes out with first, either the money was there to be spent and was not for whatever reason, or the money was never there in the first place.

    I guess the other scary scenario that might come about from not upgrading the pitching and 2nd base now is just how much will he overpay in terms of prospects when they are desperate for reinforcements.

    Hopefully it doesn’t come to that of course. The 5-6 win numbers that Stoeten is using are actually pretty amazing. That’s a serious amount at where they are supposed to be on the win curve.

  13. Why didn’t he just tag him

    • holy crap. I didn’t notice someone else made the same damned joke that I just made like 9 hours before me.
      I suck.

  14. Don’t know what AA is doing here; with Happ’s spot on the rotation up for grabs (and for good reason) AA needs to sign Ervin. Having two spots filled by Hutch and Stroman/rogers/redmon would diminish the depth AA keeps talking about as a strength. they need pitchers ready in AAA when injuries eventually hit.

    Signing Santana makes so much sense . I don’t care if their valuations don’t match up. Spend the money, it’s not time for bargain hunting. Very few teams win the world series without a bad contract or two on the payroll.

    Man this offseason has made me hate AA. It better be rogers tightening the purse strings that’s kept him from signing Santana and not some shrewd valuation of player’s worth.

  15. Santana has got a legit beef with his agent. I read he retained this guy to recoup some of his lost earnings.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPd67CEL54E

  16. Cal me crazy, but Hutchison has convinced me he can be a number 4.

    Happ at 5 is fine, as is our depth.

    And our lineup is looking so good, now that Melky looks healed and Lawrie has carried over his quieter approach, that it think we can carry goins defence.

    Having Lawrie and goins either side of Reyes should give us outstanding infield defence.

    By the way, on the BMO thing, Stoeten, you need to read the comments on the wakingthered report. There are people who went to the forum and were told straight up that the Argos are definitely moving in and possibly by 2016. I forget the exact wording. Anyway, they have no real reason to make this up. Could be promising for the arrival of grass, maybe even ahead of 2018.

  17. Andrew where are you getting your ‘facts’ from. you are cherry picking saying the 4-5 slots will ve filled by replacement level. oliver projects 1.4 wins for santana (the lowest proj for him mind you. While hutchinson he projects 1.1

    are you telling me drew a defense first ss (see the shitty playoff run) will be 5-6 runs better. Look at the projections they project 2-3 tops

    • Actually Oliver (worst proj for drew projects him at 1.8 wins. Meanwhile goins is projected at .7 wins I believe. I will say others proj .7-.8 for goins and others for drew at 3.0.

      Using Oliver WAR proj both only combine for 1.4 wins.

      Definitely not worth an a 18 mill over the incumbents.

  18. If the jays went with Hutchinson. Even using Oliver’s 81ip at 1.1 war if Stroman comes up after super two and gives 103 ip as Oliver projects, and gives you .5 war that’s still a win. those two would net you more wins1.6 using oliver than santana would.

    However, if we used steamer Stroman is projected 1.1 and Hutch .1 in 15 ip only (although he might not be good for 150 ip I like Oliver’s 81 inning projection much better). Santana is projected to give 2.9 wins using steamer. I still do not think I value 1.5 wins at 8-10 million. Especially when Oliver projected 1.4 and Zips 1.7.

    Using Zips Stroman and Hutch combine for 1.7 and Santana does 1.7 is he really worth 8-10 million for the same WAR?

    Heck, even Happ is projected 1.5 by steamer, 1.6 by oliver, and 1.7 by zips. Thus, Happ is slated to give you an additional .2 wins by oliver, draw under zip, but loose on steamer by 1.4.

    At Happ’s 5.4 million is Santana really worth an extra 3-6- 4.6 million for similar production.

    • Again going back to Oliver, 2014, 2015, 2016:

      Oliver projects 1.4, 1.3, 1.1 for Santana.
      For Hutchinson he projects 1.1, 1.0, 1.0.
      For Stroman he projects .5, .7, .9.

      I think to project Hutch only throwing 81, 72,72,74 ip over 2014-2017 is a bit light myself.

      All things being equal I think the question with Santana is does he bring in more value for 2014- 2016 at a difference of 8-9 million per year. I am not sure I buy that.

      Using Happ 2014, and picking up the 6.7 million

      1.6 and 1.4 WAR projected by Oliver. Using Oliver with Happ we see a net loss of .3 if the jays signed Santana over using Happ in the # 5 role.

      The only thing Oliver projects Santana to be worth the money is as an inning eater. He projects him to pitch 200+ innings in 2014- 2016, which I am not sure I think would happen with Santana’s medicals.

  19. FREE STROMAN

  20. Given that multiple teams need pitching and Santana isn’t signed yet, is it not possible that he comes with concerns that are lowering his value considerably and which he refuses to acknowledge. His agent is trying to tell him this but he won’t listen and he’ll change agents. The draft pick attached is a problem but not enough of a problem if he’s that good a pitcher.

    I’m gonna trust AA on this one. I doubt it’s a Cheap Rogers issue. Because if it was, AA would have known his financial parameters at the beginning of the off-season and would not have spoken so loudly about getting one or two starters.

    • my guess is AA has set his price & that’s that…AA won’t overpay/chase based on his valuation…right or wrong, I respect that.

      my own preference for the starting rotation:

      Dickey
      Morrow
      Buehrle
      Hutchinson
      Stroman

      call it presence or whatever, but with the latter 2, my impression is they have it…

      • If they can all stay healthy, I could live with that as my starting 5.

      • With AA asset valuation I cannot see that hapening. Both the four and five starters have options in that scenario. Makes it a lot harder not to expose more out of option guys to waivers.

        • I agree with you CF so it likely would come down what AA said yesterday – they’d have to be that much better than those guys without options…

          and imo, short of a spring training disaster by one or both Hutch/Stro, I believe they are…

  21. Am I the only one who thinks Santana would get lit up pitching home games in the dome?

    • You are correct….Even though we need pitching, Ervin Santana is NOT the answer. It will not bother me 1 bit if we don’t sign him!

      • rogers stadium is not the best place for a pitcher of his services, but the projected struggles are exaggerated as his groundball rates have been increasing with each year.

        He provides solid depth, not one of a lights out quality.

    • A three game at fenway with dickey, burhle, and sanata could potentially be akin to a homerun derby. Comment sponsored by All-state insurance

  22. I think we can also put the dream of getting Drew to rest as well. Even if he agreed to a position switch and the right dollars, wouldn’t he need all of sprig training to get acclimated to a new position? So now you’re putting a potential slow start and injury risk at play.

    • I don’t think it would be that bad, Goins was a shortstop before we moved him over to second base last year.

      • I see your point but Drew is a lot older to do a position change. Plus before last year, he wasn’t the picture of health either.

        • Health is an issue, sure. Position change isn’t. You’re not asking him to learn Japanese.

  23. Rogers being cheap as fuck. Smartest way to respond is by not spending money on them.

  24. Looks like it’s still possible Ken Rosenthal was right according to new reports still coming out about Ervin Santana firing his rep. Surely it’s not what Ervin thought this offseason was going to go but if the latest MLBTR reports are correct it appears Santana will represent himself in contract negations which will save him millions of dollars in agent percentages of his deal. I’m sure he’ll still get a lot less then he might have orgianlly thought he was getting but singing for whatever he’s being offered now and saving that ten percent or some cases 15 percent the agent takes will help him like the current deals offered to him a little more.

  25. Should of taken the QO, Ervin.

  26. Apparently Santana has fired his agent:

    https://twitter.com/dSoldevila/status/441742664082288641

    Also according to Buster Olney teams “are very leery of his medicals and fear an elbow blowout.”

    I really think it’s a bad idea to sign Santana, unless he’s willing to take a one year deal.

  27. I’d feel better with Santana. We’re looking at two spots open in the starting rotation. One might filled by a rookie.

    If Dickey or Morrow miss time it starts getting ugly fast.

  28. Why didn’t he just tag him…. err.. I mean sign him?

  29. Early Analysis:
    Dickey : cant locate the strike zone, his knuckle ball is dancing in the 200 level.
    Buerhle: Put on weight which slows down his fastball
    Morrow: Gets shelled and is on his way to the DL
    Hutchy: Should get Opening day start
    Happ: Equivalent to Dickey + Morrow but diverting all attention as Morrow is goldenboy
    Dusty Mccgowan: has gotten absolutly shelled so far should be sent to SINGLE A ball
    Drabek: No way he can find the strike zone
    Redmon / Rogers: Candidates for Buffalo

    This is what we have to look forward to this season

    thank you AA for putting together a wonderful pitching staff.

  30. I certainly don’t mind the idea of signing Santana, allowing depth to be depth, but there’s significant risk that goes with it. 4 guaranteed years is too much.

    On one hand, there’s some evidence that he’s becoming more of a control pitcher, the groundballs look fairly promising, and he has low injury risk. Buehrle and Dickey had to work through the adjustment to the park/division last year, so they might be peas in a pod. On the other hand, he’ll give up some home runs and he might be mediocre or even really bad. Maybe we could get the same production from the guys we have. Really.

    Drew and Morales have significant injury risk, although I’m not opposed to signing Morales if Lind is traded and Morales were used as straight DH. If Boras is really that stubborn, and will have his clients wait till June to sign, then maybe the Phillies will be losing by then, and willing to trade Cliff Lee. So maybe a 3 team trade where PIT receives Lind, TOR receives Lee, PHI receives a prospect from the Pirates and two from the Jays.

  31. Read this on ESPN. Felt… good?

    “82. Since R.A. Dickey’s first year with the Mets in 2010, his “fast knuckler” (the 78 mph one) has limited batters to a .197 average with a 29.6 percent strikeout percentage.

    83. In 2012, Dickey threw the pitch 45 percent of the time. Hitters hit .185 against it with a 34.3 percent strikeout rate.

    84. In the first half of 2013, he threw the pitch 19 percent of the time. Hitters hit .236 against it with a 28.3 strikeout percentage.”

  32. We want to win as badly as you do…. but remember, we are in the business of making money. Not losing it.

    We acquired Reyes, Dickey, Cabrerra, Johnson, and Buehrle last season and we regressed.

    Why we would now spend more $$$ on an unproven 2b and a so-so pitcher. Will they push us over the top? We don’t believe so. The lineup we have now can compete.

    We’re in this to make money, and not to take on more long-term debt through risky investments…. got it?

    Now look at that glorious statue outside Gate 5.

    • Dear Rogers,

      Pitchers 1-3 will be great and 4-5 will be good enough, it’s true. But what happens when there’s even a minor clusterfuck of pitching injuries?

      We understand that you’ve been throwing money around for wireless spectrum, and undoubtedly your new CEO would like to rearrange all the furniture in the Bloor street offices. BUT FOR CHRISSAKES USE 0.01% OF YOUR NET REVENUES FROM FUCKING US IN THE CAN FOR THE PAST 20 YEARS AND PONY UP! Stash Goins in AAA where he belongs and buy us a fucking pitcher, will you?

      Sincerely,

      The Fans

    • I stand corrected and bow before such an upstanding entity. Here’s $300 for my last month’s cable bill.

  33. As long as the fans continue to go to the games, spend money on jersey’s, caps and concessions, there is no incentive for Rogers to change. Ultimately, we have the power, but don’t think we have the drive to change.

    • Or, you know, they might not be that bad this year and will be an entertaining team to watch. If you think signing Santana will put them over the top, then you’re probably not that big a fan of baseball.

    • There is clearly huge potential revenue gains. Attendance alone could easily nearly double and there is a massive bandwagon Canadian audience ready to jump onto the bandwagon if the team wins. That is why Rogers took on all that salary last year to begin with. They are a corporation and cant justify throwing good(bad, mediocre?) money after bad if it will come with losing money on the Jays in the short term when it doesn’t strategically cross subsidize other business areas. If they had won more than 75 games last year and say made the playoffs this could be a whole different story this year and we may have seen a big splash like McCann and / or other significant FA upgrades.

  34. I’m not sure whether everybody is just venting or haven’t really thought about what they’re saying.
    No incentive for Rogers to change?
    Buy a pitcher?
    Rogers is fucking everyone for 20 years?
    spend $$ on an unproven 2B?
    Early analysis of spring training pitchers?
    None of this makes any sense.
    At least make a plausible argument,otherwise it’s called whining.

  35. Buster Olney retweeted a tweet from @dSoldevila which stated that he in fact did fire his agent. Not really sure how legit it is. Check it out:

    https://twitter.com/dSoldevila/status/441742664082288641
    Source: Santana has no plans to hire a new agent. Could negotiate his own contract

    https://twitter.com/dSoldevila/status/441743397666054144
    Source: Santana has no plans to hire a new agent. Could negotiate his own contract

  36. I had a dream last night that Ervin decided to represent himself after firing his agent.

  37. Frankly, the guys we have (Stroman, Sanchez, Hutch) are actually better than the choices currently out there. I would have preferred Jimenez, but then there is a lot o medical risk with him, too.

    I’ve decided to simply enjoy watching the young guys develop rather than worrying about the overall picture, which is, unfortunately, unlikely to be great. The good news is that AA is pretty good at breaking down and acquiring nice young talent, so either way something positive should come out of this year either way.

  38. Justin Bourne had a great post yesterday on Backhand Shelf about the current obsession with ‘value’ players in the NHL. I feel like AA has fallen into that way of thinking, obsessing too much over whether the team will get adequate WAR/$ out of a deal, rather than worrying about just getting WAR, since that is what ends up winning games in the first place. Maybe Santana or Drew will end up being worth less than their contracts over time, but its pretty clear that the value they would add is worth overspending a bit. Especially if jobs are going to be on the line if the Jays don’t win this year.

    • I actually thought Bourne missed the mark on that article. I have no idea what group he was arguing against.

      Top end players are actually underpaid in the NHL, it’s the midtier players that are drastically overpaid and hurt teams. The whole point of acquiring value contracts is so that you can have room for the big star contracts, and not pay nearly 10% of the cap on “role players”.

      To use his examples. You don’t take a Clarke MacArthur at 3.5 mil over a Kessel at 8mil in the name of value, but you sure as hell take him over a Clarkson at 5.25 mil.

      Santana could very well fall into that category of the overpaid role player that is the true drain on a team. However, with his price coming done significantly over the offseason, I personally no longer think that’s true.

  39. AA didn’t come out and say that at least two starters were needed at the end of last year for nothing. It’s evident he had his wings clipped. He then tried a trade that got rescinded–and saw his young hurlers look ready for the big time.

    He figures that if he has to blow it all up and save face, he doesn’t want any more baggage than he’ll have to clean out. If it works, sure, maybe they give him the green light for more–but Rogers evidently wasn’t impressed with last year, and now AA has to simply hope that his original concept wasn’t too flawed and was mainly derailed due to injury.

    He deserves a break one of these years…let’s hope it’s this year. He may even be right about the value of his young hurlers vs. the injury prone expensive players now available.

  40. I swear it’s like people haven’t been watching this team for the past 5 years. We get that innings matter, right? Hutchison and Stroman absolutely have the chance to post better ERA’s than Santana, that doesn’t mean they’d outperform him. Taking the ball every 5 days matters. Getting out of the 5th inning every once in a while matters (hear that, JA?). Depth matters. It’s also really fucking weird that people rip Santana to shreds for being an inning eating back end fly-ball pitcher then turn around and heap praise upon their #2 starter, an inning eating back end fly-ball pitcher.

  41. Soooo … Happ is shelved: https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/441940216136228864

    That plan for hoping that everything that went bad last year would go good this year? Starting to look like its going to be as ridiculous in actuality as it seemed to be in theory.

    • Because of J.A. Happ?

      Also: Yesterday’s news.

      Also also: does that really sound like a catastrophic injury to you?

      • First – the shelving … that’s today’s news. Yesterday’s news, as far as I was aware, was that he was sore. What seems new today is that he’s being skipped in the rotation indefinitely.

        Second – This is a pitcher who had 2 rough outings that are claimed to be due to back pain and he is now being held out indefinitely? This is not like he just woke up stiff this morning and can’t go. This definitely seems like a larger health issue. And let’s not forget, the team doesn’t exactly have a stellar recent track record with managing pitchers through either back pain (Dickey) or being completely transparent in what type of pain they’re actually dealing with (Morrow). Do I expect them to be honest and amazing healers? No. But at the same token, that’s why I don’t think this is minor.

        Third – do I think Happ can anchor a staff? Nope. But do I think he’s one of only 4 pitchers on this staff to have any sort of major league track record? Yes. And starting the season with 3 veteran pitchers is not exactly a foundation for success.

        Fourth – is it only Happ? Nope, Happ is just the latest. It’s early in spring training, but a staff that was a huge question mark and needed people to grab the 4th and 5th jobs already has three of the leading candidates for those spots looking like lost causes: Happ (performance and injury), Drabek (can’t find the strike zone), Redmond (throwing batting practice). Yes, there are still a few weeks to go, but the field is rapidly diminishing.

        • 1) Nope. That was the case then too.
          2) Nope. It’s a back injury. Sounds minor.
          3) Track record alone doesn’t matter (especially when it’s bad), it’s about getting hitters out.
          4) It’s March 7th for fuck sakes.

          • Stoeten:

            It’s early in the offseason – you’re ridiculous if you think the Jays didn’t budget for getting someone.
            The winter meetings are when teams just plant the seeds, calm the fuck down.
            It’s only the new year, there is still time.
            It’s March 7th for fuck sakes.
            Oh shit – you guys were right, it’s time to sell.

        • Good post. Today’s game was shit. AA needs to sign a couple of starters or this team will be Done by Mid May.
          No depth at all. Aaron Laffey is throwing through a tire in his backyard waiting for the phone to ring

  42. And a back injury that lingers for almost 2 weeks?

    Not minor. That sounds chronic, not acute.

    • Thanks Dr. Nonsense.

      • Yet again with the brilliance

        • Stop saying dumb things and you’ll get better replies.

          • Aagggh, yes. Someone involved in the clinical and financial departments at a Spine Center of Excellence in the Midwest is saying dumb things when they comment on a back injury. Not the person who shoots them down because the news isn’t good.

            • That makes it even dumber, actually. You of all people should know better than to attempt a diagnosis based on how little information there is available.

              Hey, but thanks for the resume. We’ll take you into consideration if there’s ever an opening in our Dumbass Internet Doctor department.

              • Are you having gas? My little 1 year old princess gets pretty short when she’s gassy.

                And, uh, I’m not attempting a diagnosis. I’m making an educated guess at whether what he has will be on-going or be able to resolved rather quickly. Do I need to know exactly what’s wrong with him in order to make an educated guess about that? Nope. I just need half a brain. Having experience with spines just makes it that much easier.

    • None of us know anything really but I agree this does sound like something that could be more than just a small short injury. Seems he pitched through it, nothing acute could be diagnosed and didnt respond well enough to treatment to keep going so the writing is all the wall that this is a systemic problem that could linger for quite a while .. hopefully not and he is ready to go come April

  43. if the can get him on 4 year deal with a team option and bigger dollars for the player for 3rd and 4th . that would be good.
    1/14, 2/14, 3/16, 4/16 – 4yr 60mill

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