Spring Threat: Jays vs. Rays


So… I really did go walk for a burrito, and it took longer than I planned. So discuss this one amongst yourselves while I write up a real game threat — some interesting stuff to touch on, including M.I.J.A. and Stroman’s big day.

Or… maybe I got so bogged down in comments, Twitter, and burrito that it seems pointless now. Not that you cared anyway, right?

Here, though. Here’s a picture of Marcus Stroman that might almost make this look like a real post if you squint hard enough. Sound about right?

Comments (157)

  1. What kind of burrito?

  2. After seeing buehrles numbers agianst the AL east last year, i cant believe this guy is the 3rd starter. AA, you fucked up bad.

    • You’re an idiot, though.

      • Haha im the idiot. Would you like to explain how having buehrle as the 3rd starter is a positive development for a team thats planning to contend in the AL east?

        • Yes: Mark Buehrle is good and division-specific splits are dumb/meaningless.

          • Oh i didnt say he was bad. Just that its preferrable to have someone better in the 3 spot in the AL east. Of course intradivison stats matter. How could they not if buehrle is seeing those teams more often than anybody else.

            • the AL East is tough, we all know that. show me a pitcher whose performance doesnt dip vs other AL East teams.

            • Small sample size. Ignore them always.

            • I’m thinking Stoeten is suggesting that intradivision stats don’t matter (in a hyperbolic sense) because of the smaller sample sizes on which they are based.

              It’s difficult to say even one entire season is enough data to evaluate a player statistically (with significant ability to predict future performance) as for an MLB starter that is really only 26-32 games if they pitch the average full season work load.

              Given the potential variance between any two starts made by a pitcher, the data, or rather lack of data, provided by intra divisional splits isn’t sufficient to say that a pitcher will be bad going forward based on their numbers vs, say the AL east.

              It could be that the pitcher has just been unlucky, or having a ‘bad day’ during his starts versus a specific team and this unluckiness will not correct itself as the pitcher may not provide the opportunities for the small sample of performances against a single team to regress to the player’s career norms.

              Qualitatively, I would agree it seems easy to make predictive conclusions based on the performance of a specific player against a specific team, however the quantitative metrics that are derived from these samples may not paint a clear picture going forward.

          • Divisional splits matter because MLB does not employ a balanced schedule. As long as the Jays play an inordinate % of their games against AL East, it matters.

            • Except that Rosters change every year, and the sample sizes are usually too small to be worth anything.

              So, yeah, they WOULD matter, if the data was actually any good.

            • Nope. Ignore them always. They tell us nothing.

              • how is this small sample size? career numbers

                vs boston 4.35 era 151 ip
                vs ny 6.00 era 92 ip
                vs tampa 4.51 era 121 ip

                very mediocre numbers to be paying 19 mil

                • Small sample against anything remotely relevant. Unless you think there’s something about the clothes or Scott Brosius starts playing again they’re utterly meaningless.

                  Amount they’re paying him is irrelevant, too.

        • There are dozens of teams who would be more than happy with Mark Buehrle in the rotation. Dozens!

          • Not for 18 mil a year there isn’t. Why do you think Mark is still a Jay…because the Jays can’t find a team to take him…

            • yes because guarantee of 200 innings is useless to this team

            • Holy fuck sober jays fan are you that dumb?

              • Yes, he is. Don’t waste your time.

                • In addition to divisional splits being silly, I would like to point out that calling a guy “#3″ is also meaningless. Rotation order has meaning for about the first 5 days of the season.

                • Buehrle is one of the durable inning eater pitchers in baseball..so there’s that.

              • He throws 80mph and makes 37 mil over the next 2 years. Wake up. No one will pay that. Do you honest think AA didn’t trade and trade Mark? AA didn’t even want Mark in the first place, Mark was forced upon the Jays otherwise the trade wasn’t going to happen,.

                Jays are stuck with him unless they eat salary.

                • so we’re gonna be stuck with our most reliable pitcher, after a season of the having the least reliable rotation in baseball? well fuck hey?

    • He doesn’t look too shabby today.

    • I think Buehrle would be a 3 or 4 on almost every team in MLB.

    • buehrle’s pretty awesome actually

    • Complaining about the most reliable guy in the rotation? Honestly…

    • http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2003&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=
      links to a list, sorted by fWAR, of the top pitchers over the past decade. The object of your scorn is at #8.
      links to the past 5 years of the same. I call your attention to number 19 on the list.
      Over the past 2 years, he has been approximately a league-average player. Even if he pitches no better than that in 2014, my cocktail-napkin math tells me half of the teams in the league would be improved for having him as their third-best SP.

  3. I was wondering the same about the burrito type. Please include this information in the game threat.

  4. Anyone got a link to the game?

  5. What a hose. Nice tag too

  6. I know I’m late to the party, but Melky seems to moving quite a bit better.

  7. Hey Stoeten, are you planning to do a write up or review of Hayhurt’s newest book?

    • *Hayhurst

      • Meant to take it on the road with me and read it in the car and write up a review when it came out. Left it at home, so I’m a little behind on that.

        • Thought it was better than the first two.
          Biased because of the Jays angle.

          • I’m part way through it and I’m definitely enjoying it. But I do feel like Hayhurst is trying a little to hard for the laughs on occasion in this one, and that he may have a bit too high of an opinion of his own intelligence and wittiness than he really should.

            I’m nitpicking though. I really do enjoy 90% of his stuff.

            • Liked it as well, thought it was pretty good. It’s fairly easy to see how he wasn’t an extremely well-liked dude with some of the things that he said and ways he reacted to certain situations. It doesn’t excuse the idiotic behaviours and attitudes that were pointed in his direction, though.

            • Agree. He’s definitely above average smart but no oracle.

          • Radar, you are always on top of it all. I believe that is exactly why for the first month or so that I was on djf, I thought you were running this place. Lol.

            • Blush.
              Thanks for the kind words.
              Stoeten’s the Man.I couldn’t do what he does.
              But,shhhh,don’t tell him I said that,his ego is big enough as it is.
              I just enjoy shooting the shit about baseball with everybody.
              I learn a lot from the commenters,good and bad.
              All the different angles and counterpoints make it interesting.
              Although there’s more than few who think I’m a grumpy,old,asshole luddite.
              They may be right,LOL

            • Get a room.

  8. And evidently Gose still thinks his fingers taste like Twix.
    So fucking gross.

  9. Excited to see stroman here

  10. Stromooooooooooooooooooooo time.

    • Aaaand there she goes

      • First two guys didn’t come close to good contact. Stroman overmatched them.
        Then he was 1-2 on Nix and had him guessing.
        I’m kind of glad he walked him and gave up the bomb. Teach him not to nibble when you are up.

        Not worried. If they ripped 4 hits and he gave up 2 runs then yes.
        But he dominated 2 guys, was way ahead on the third.
        Walk and a blast.

        • To me it didn’t look like he was nibbling. It looked like he was overthrowing the fastball which is a little understandable.


    See you in September Stroman.

    • Oh for god’s sake.


      He does appear to be leaving his fastball up more than he should. But big deal. It’s still only March 7th and we’ve seen exactly 1 inning.
      For all know maybe he’s just “working on stuff”.

  12. Beurle should be perfect as the three starter if things go as they should. Start with a knuckleballer to throw off hitters, then follow with Morrow as a flamethrower, then buerle throwing slow and hitters get impatient. In theory this should really mess up a three game series perfectly

    • Then back with Johnson to show them another fireballer…

      wait…what year is this?

      • Johnson’s average fastball last year was 92.9. Wouldn’t be surprised if Hutchison sits somewhere in that general area this season, based on the early reports.

    • besides the first 3 games of the year, how many times are dickey morrow and buerhle going to face an opponent in a row.

      • Maybe two other times? If we are lucky and they all stay healthy.

        Rotation #’s are so laughably silly.

      • Last year it felt like Dickey was always the last pitcher in a series, messing up the batters for the next team they faced. I’m probably wrong, but even if I’m right it isn’t very controllable.

        • Not suggesting this could happen but with Dickey being a knuckleballer maybe he could flip in the rotation a bit to make sure he pitches before the last game of the series to get the Dickey effect? Wonder if he could go on short rest given what he pitches. I believe in this effect that it helps the next guy especially a hard thrower and is a good advantage to having the knuckleballer in the first place. Seems ideal to me if Dickey can go often to have him in middle relief coming in for one time through the order like every other game – hardthrower, Dickey, hardthrower in one game could really mess with timing

  13. Yeah I tried the stream and went through the motions, still says video not available due to blackout restrictions – quick google search of ‘sportsnet ontario stream’ will yield results tho

  14. Has gose ever hit the ball out of the infield? Reminds me of me at softball.

  15. Wooo! luck in the Jays’ favour!

  16. This thread is all screwy.

  17. What’s “M.I.J.A.”

  18. You know, if the Rays really wanted to save some money they’d stop signing all these pitchers with absurdly long names.
    They could save enough on Jersey lettering along to afford another 1-year first baseman contract.

  19. Anyone else having audio issues on MLB.TV?

  20. I’m liking Lawrie’s new stance

  21. Watching Lawrie run is a consistence source of LOLz for me.

  22. Come on Ricky

  23. Nervous for Ricky.

  24. Nice!

  25. hey stoeten, why are there more trolls than usual on djf today?

  26. Romero’s beard = worst beard

  27. Wait, Romero is mentoring Stroman? Please break this up immediately.

  28. stoeten, why does there seem to be more trolls on djf than before?

  29. whoops, double comment from me sorry

    • I’m not a statistician by any stretch, but I’m pretty sure that graph is pretty flawed, given that the y-axis starts at 30.

  30. Ricky get out 3 lefties …pretty good inning for him

  31. Jays will win a game eventually.

  32. Ricky’s not looking half bad right now

  33. Nice fuckin throw mouser

  34. How do you even mess that up Maicer

  35. Beauty K Ricky!

  36. No SXSW for Stoeten this year?

  37. Ricky, keep the beard it’s working for you.

  38. Nice to see the Seitzers happy, but Redmond is stinkin the joint out.

  39. lets just sign drew and morales and try win every game 8-5

  40. Wow, Romero gets loaded up with LHB and still manages to be the only Jays pitcher to come out clean


  42. I think I really like Chris Getz. Wonder if he can play 2b better than Goins?


  44. I had to use a third party stream to get today’s game. Every time I try to use mlb.tv they want money from me. I thought ST games were free. Maybe I’m mistaken.

  45. I had to re-up my membership, $19.99, small price to pay to listen to Jays games all year at work. Fuck it, I am that much money almost everyday :P

  46. I think Dusty is a lock to start ………. in single A ball .

  47. is that grub from the ballpark? Heading there in a couple weeks…what’s good around there?

  48. Nice job from Ricky hope he can build on this. Getting concerned that I started to believe all the stand pat/value nonsense fed to us by Rogers controlled media. We have very little real pitching depth. If one of the big 3 go down there is little to bank on 6-9. How did the Jays may make so few signings at all levels this offseason ? There was no one worthy of an invite ? Our guys a re that good ? If they can play .500 for the first 6 weeks it will be a miracle I think. Hope not but yikes.

    • Maybe it’s just me, but I love ALL of the minor league invites. Buffalo rocks.

      Johnson. Getz. Mune. Ohka. heck yes.

  49. I’ve seen enough to know that this year is already shot. No improvements made over the winter and the team is a year older. Year after year I watch and come back for more – I promise myself I won’t but I always end up coming back.

    NO MORE!

    I hereby pledge that I will not watch a single game this year unless the jays are within 2 games of playoff contention! I will not visit the site again, even to just read posts. This is the last time I will be heard from.

    I absolutely, 100%, steadfastly refuse to be involved in this nonsense anymore!

  50. is there any bargain bin pitchers that are being released by other teams that AA sees potential in yet?

    • Aaron Laffey

      • I really don’t understand why everyone always hates on Laffey so much while being so confident in the fringe pitchers there are this year. He pitched 100 innings at 4.5 ERA that year. That’s twice as many innings and better ERA than Hutchinson had in his cup of coffee that ended in TJ surgury. Better ERA than Happ has had with Jays in any year. Better than Rogers was last year. Better than Drabek has been. Redmond came in at 4.32 ERA last year. Always blows me away how some guys get hated on excessively while others performing the same are so highly thought of relatively. And don’t let someone speak negatively about one of the beloved Jays players lest they be deemed a troll called a moron and disrespected. Truth is what Laffey did for the Jays that year is what should be expected from the #5 on the Jays this year and that doesn’t mean the Jays #5 is shit and that the team is doomed either.

        • I love how you had this Laffey rant all loaded up and ready to fire.

          Scanning threads… messages boards… Overhearing bar conversations… FINALLY!!!!

          Laffey sucked brother.

  51. ANyone know if Romero will be making the team this year? Havn’t heard anything about him.

    • Nobody knows this, but as it stand I really think the plan is to go with Hutchison, and one of either Rogers or Redmond as the #5. But if Rogers/Redmond can’t give them enough confidence I see a chance for Romero if he is really good the rest of the way. If that doesn’t happen then Stroman has a chance as well.

      • It was interesting that they scheduled Redmond for only one inning today.
        If they were stretching him out to start, you’d think he’d be going three.

        I had the game on TV but was doing other things as well.
        Was Ricky getting them out with pitches in the strike zone
        or were they chasing?

        If he can get guys out with pitches in the zone, that would be just so huge.
        Will be looking forward to his next outing.

        • IMO both. He got his 3rd strike on the 3rd out of his 2nd inning with a great pitch low and outside (fastball?). But he had some nice called strike breaking balls in the zone too. This was after a bloop single to right and a very bad throw by Izturis to give the Rays a 4th out. Really looking forward to his next outing.

          • For RR to go north he has to take someone’s place on the 40 man so it should be interesting.

  52. Was it just me or did Stroman’s fastball look a little flat?

  53. I’m really having a tough time believing in the rotation. I want to, I really do, but so many things have to go right for this team to make a run. They are due for some luck I guess. Even though its early it would be nice if next round through the group they actually step it up and start to put some questions to rest.

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