klawdredd

Keith Law of ESPN.com has been all over the Jays this week, and not necessarily in a good way. Actually, almost exclusively in a less-than-positive way, though not unfairly so. The thing is, though, he isn’t just exclusively picking at the low-hanging fruit like we’ve sort of been doing around here. He’s really poking a needle around a bunch of inflated hopes that fans have on the good side of this club. So if you’re not ready for bad news, or are just going to scream incoherently about bias, maybe just take this post off, thanks.

For those of you willing to indulge the dark side, though, follow me…

Notes From Dunedin

Back on Sunday afternoon at ESPN.com (Insider only) Law posted his notes from the Jays and Twins game he took in at Dunedin over the weekend, and while much of what he writes is about the Twins and their outstanding collection of up-and-coming talent. But as we all know, up-and-coming talent doesn’t always translate to the big league level — not immediately, and sometimes not ever. This is illustrated by the pair of comments Law zeroes in on after talking in relatively positive terms about Drew Hutchison: Kyle Drabek and Brett Lawrie.

Drabek, he says, was “ showing average to below-average stuff across the board,” and “used mostly cutters and two-seamers rather than the four-seamer, hitting 85-89 mph on the cutter, 87-89 on the two-seamer, commanding neither pitch and not getting enough life on the latter one.”

That’s not even the dagger, as he later adds that Drabek is “approaching two years since the surgery, so more of his stuff would be back by now if it is ever going to come back.” Ugh.

And Brett Lawrie? Double ugh.

He concedes that it may just have been an off-day, but Lawrie was “was on top of everything today, hitting almost every pitch where he made contact, fair or foul, into the ground. He may be over-rotating, considering that at the point of contact his hips are turned so much that that portion of his anatomy is facing the pitcher (it looks like more than a 90-degree turn from where his hips started). It may be that he’s trying so hard to keep his hands inside the ball that he’s not getting the bat around the ball enough when it’s out over the plate, a pitch he should be able to drive. ”

He cites Lawrie’s ugly slash stats over the last two years, which I argued back in June were so clouded by injury as to maybe not be that meaningful (which seemed to be validated in August by his second-half turnaround, just… uh… don’t pay attention to what happened in September). But the real kicker is this: if he doesn’t figure this whole swing thing out, KLaw says, “he doesn’t walk or play enough defense to be an everyday solution if he’s not hitting for a high average.”

The eye test certainly doesn’t say that about his defence, and I’m sure the blood is rising in a lot of Jays fans after reading a thing like that — I suggested that he was elite defensively at his position in the post linked above, for example — but a couple things need to be remembered here. For one, the defence at third does have to be very good for a guy to be a regular as the kind of hitter Lawrie was last year — walk rate below 7%, 11 HR in 442 PA, 94 wRC+, .257/.315/.397 slash line. We’re not talking about shortstop here.

For two, the defensive metrics have certainly trended in the wrong direction for him, though I’d still say the overall picture, coupled with the eye test, suggests he’s pretty damn alright. Good enough to run out there expecting below .260 batting averages given the power and walk rate? Not in an ideal world maybe, but it sort of depends where you set the bar. The Blue Jays, for example, have shown through their love affair with Ryan Goins that there’s is set awfully low.

We can at least agree with Law on that:

And actually, he’s not as down on Lawrie as all that makes it seem, either. To wit…

 

KLaw Speaks!

Back on Monday Keith went on the radio with Macko and Cauz (though it sure sounds like Mike Hogan) on TSN 1050 (audio here), having just visited the Blue Jays’ camp in Dunedin. Some highlights interspersed with my own commentary:

On Brett Lawrie:

The best case scenario is he should rake! This was always known as a hitter first, he’s got bat speed, he’s got really strong wrists and forearms to be able to drive the ball to all fields, he’s probably got 15 to 20 HR power easily, he’s an above average runner. This guy should be somebody who’s hitting in the .280 to .300 range, maybe a little better — with some pop, maybe with some baserunning value, and I’d say solid-average to slightly above average defence at third.

“It’s a tough challenge for a hitting coach to diagnose a guy and fix a guy without really knowing what the problem is,” he added, saying that in the above piece he’d thrown some ideas out as to why all the contact Lawrie was making was poor, but he really didn’t know.

Anyway, it’s hardly panic time yet on Brett Lawrie. I’d bet on him taking a step forward this year, rather than taking a step back. Bad contact is definitely a thing you’d like to see go away with him, but let’s also keep in mind that we’ve seen clear changes to his batting stance and the amount of pre-pitch movement he makes, so you definitely would like to think that this he remains a work in progress, which gives him a lot of leeway.

On Drew Hutchison:

He looked OK. Velocity wasn’t all the way back to where it was prior to the surgery, but he was 91 – 93, had a real good changeup, he had a little bit of trouble with the slider — he ended up hanging one to Byron Buxton of the Twins who ended up hitting it 420 feet out to left-centre. The biggest thing — your number one concern with any guy coming back from Tommy John surgery is, inside of 18 months or so all the velocity should be back. Usually it’s back at about twelve months — what you get at that 12 to 15 month mark is probably what you’re going to have going forward. It’s not impossible, but it’s rare for guys to continue to add velocity beyond that distance from the surgery. So I think Hutchison probably is going to end up sitting with an average/slightly above average fastball. If he’s got the good changeup that he can really locate — which, he was fine in terms of command and control the day I saw him — then he certainly is viable to them this year as a fifth starter, which I think is what’s open to him at this point.

He adds that Stroman is the better long-term prospect, but that he’d start the season with Hutchison at this point, if forced to choose between the two. That would be because of concerns about Stroman’s innings cap.

Also worth noting is the fact that Law uses his own radar gun, so that’s why you might not be seeing the same numbers in his analysis as you would off the stadium gun, where we’ve been hearing things about Hutchison hitting 96 (which he may well do, I suppose, he just evidently isn’t sitting all that close to there).

On Ownership:

They shouldn’t be beaten very often on just money. Look, you’re going to lose to the Dodgers if it’s money, you’re going to lose to the Yankees if it’s money — that’s probably true of the Red Sox. That’s about it. This is not a small market team — certainly not by market size, and not by the revenue of the team or the corporate parent. They should be able to outspend, and now there’s an actual business logic to outspending. The marginal value of having Ervin Santana for one season is pretty high, and if it’s only, say $15- or $16-million — I understand that sounds like a lot of money, but in the current pay scale of baseball, that for an above average starter who is capable of carrying 200 to 220 innings? That’s about what it should cost.

“There’s no point to just going for 80 to 85 wins. In for a penny, in for a pound, and at this point they should be in for a pound.”

 

Future Power Rankings And KLawchat

I’ve rolled these two items into one because… well, mostly because we don’t wait for updates to ESPN’s Future Power Rankings with breathless anticipation like we used to. That was supposed to just mean that Jays are more a “win-now” club, but… well… we all know how that’s going.

Still, though, it’s not entirely awful. In the rankings released today the Jays have moved up two spots since the middle of last season, and now sit twenty-second. Ugh.

In the previous report, Jim Bowden wrote that “the Jays’ rotation was supposed to be a strength, but it turned out to be a major weakness.” He added that “AA needs to figure out how to rebuild the staff.” Hey, I know, how about by doing shit-all!

In the new one, Law gives a prospect who’s facing a make-or-break year, and chooses D.J. Davis, who so far has “struck out too much and his plus speed hasn’t translated into any kind of baserunning value.” He says a bad 2014 won’t be fatal to his chances of becoming a big league regular, because he wasn’t supposed to be a fast mover, but… y’know. Not looking great for Gose 2.0. Hey, but at least he wasn’t selected immediately before Corey Seager and Michael Wacha. GAH!!!

Ugh. Let’s just move on to the chat, which took place today at ESPN.com. Here are your Jays-related tidbits.

Marcus (Toronto, ON)
What do the Jays do now? Not that Ervin made them world-beaters, but after pushing their chips all in last year, how can they go into the season with a rotation of Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Hutchison and someone like Todd Redmond or JA Happ when there’s a legitimate upgrade out there for a one-year deal?
Klaw
I’m disappointed that they didn’t sign any of the FA starters. Garza I understand because of the medicals, but they needed to acquire a quality starter this offseason and didn’t do so. Even adding Stroman and a healthy Hutchison isn’t an adequate replacement for what someone like Santana or Ubaldo would have provided for them.

BUT WHAT DO THEY DO???????? Cross their fingers to avoid the coming freight train of mediocrity, I guess.

Tony Fontana (North)
You wrote the other day Brett Lawries bat needs improvement whick I 100% agree, but you said his defense isn’t good enough on its own? I think he is one of the best defensive 3B in the majors why do you think he isn’t?
Klaw
His defense isn’t going to carry him if he doesn’t hit. Somehow Jays fans have become convinced he’s Brooks Robinson or Adrian Beltre over there. He’s not, not per the eye test, and the metrics over the last two years don’t say he is either. He has to hit.

I can’t possibly imagine where fans might have come up with such an idea. I’d ask one of the Jays’ broadcasters but it’s hard to make out what they’re saying them sometimes since they’re always trying to speak with Lawrie’s balls in their mouth.

Alex (Toronto)
Had a chance to see Aarron Sanchez yet this spring training? Any evidence the Jays are going to lengthen out his stride at all?
Klaw
Missed him by a day. Toronto folks said it was better, but not all the way back to where it used to be.

Wait, was… was that good news? Holy shit!

Lastly… we have this:

Bob Loblaw ((Toronto))
Word out of Jays camp is that “something has clicked” for Romero in his last two starts. I read your scouting report from last week, so I’m skeptical. Any chance Ricky can put it together and make the Jays rotation?

Klaw (1:06 PM)
He was horrible when I saw him. Those reports sound like BS to me. Stuff was bad, command was nonexistent.

This is something that probably can’t be said enough. It was only through the TV that I saw it, but Romero’s good inning over the weekend looked a lot like results not reflecting the process, to me. Didn’t think it looked like he knew where the ball was going, but I guess it seemed to work. His outing this week (was it yesterday?) I didn’t catch much of, so I won’t comment on, but I really have a hard time seeing him entering the conversation.

Except… well…

GAH! Also:

So… there’s that.

Comments (172)

  1. I wish it was September. Think of the aggravation we’d avoid.

  2. For all the picks and money the Jays pumped into the draft during AA’s tenure, they certainly have little to show for it. Nothing in the way of position players ready to help the big league club.

    Their one major success is currently wearing a Mets jersey. I get that the bottom of their system is “loaded”, but these guys are so far away, and have such a low floor. I seem to remember that three years ago, it was all about the upside of the low A guys, yet none of them are really ready to compete yet/have busted out.

    I thought AA’s best ability was his drafting skills. A lot of people praised his high ceiling approach. However, I think at this point, evidence suggests that the draft may be one of his weakest areas. At least Riccardi’s picks made it to the MLB and put up a few WAR…

    • His first draft was 2010 and they’ve been primarily taking eighteen-year-olds. Way too soon to say any of this silliness.

      • “At least riccardis picks made it to the mlb and put up a few war”
        Aaron hill is literally the only above average regular that he drafted in EIGHT year. His “safe” picks of McGuire and Jenkins? They both suck.

        • McGuire was an AA pick.

          • And he was a pick more in the style of what JPR was trying to do, a guy with a lower ceiling that could contribute to the middle or back of the rotation quickly.

        • Agree the JPR era added hardly any major talent to the major leagues in general. You’re basically looking at relievers or bench players.

          Looking back you can argue that maybe the Jays of recent years needed to be far more active in the free agent market because of the lack of talent that was coming up from the minors.

          Not sure what that says about the talent evaluators in the system or ownership. Unfortunately, it’s been a bad combination.

          • If I’m not mistaken, isn’t it the same main people that told Ricciardi who to pick in the draft still telling AA who to pick?

            I think AA makes his draft picks based on his staffs recommendation, not his personal preference.

          • Check out recent article http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20140311112310550.

            Sure the methodology is not great simply looking at the hit rate of guys making it to MLB and staying for 3+ years. And you cant compare to AA track record since it is still in progress but take a step back and try to make an unbiased evaluation and use some other methodology and see what you come up with. Beyond that methodology do you really think it is such a sure thing that anyone in the Jays farm is close to a sure thing to make a significant impact in MLB? The farm is ranked low and do we really think it would be so much higher with Nichilino, Marisnick and Synderguaard in it? Do we really think these guys will buck the trend on historical averages of how many pan out? Gose has really stalled too and reading interviews of him recently makes you wonder if he will ever be more than a 4th OF who can pinch run and play defence – the guy has completely lost confidence and passion for playing baseball it seems

            Saying Riccardi era produced no MLB talent is simply not true and biased by disdain for the man and how his era played out. Hill, Lind, Ryan Roberts, Marcum, Romero, Cecil, McGowan, Jansenn, Litsch, Rzepchinski, Loup all have made an impact in MLB – some a very big impact. Lind and Hill have been silver sluggers, Cecil and Romero and Marcum(?) all stars, Litsch and McGowan had big impacts albeit short lived due to injury, Jansenn is a lights out closer, Loup has been a great LOOGY. Yan Gomes, Hutchinson have good chance to be solid players. Goins is a terrible starting 2B. That was without all the extra picks. Internationally there was less activity – Alvarez was is a pretty good player. Will Osuna or Tirado match that – chances are given history no but it could easily happen. Hecavarria isnt exactly setting the world on fire.

            Its easy to have a rosey outlook on AA drafting – results are TBD. The attrition rate for young pitchers is enormous and even guys like Stroman, Sanchez, Synderguaard could all easily be nothing more than average pitchers and with real likelihood they could have less impact than Cecil and Romero. They could be below average fringe starter or mediocre bullpen guys too with real likelihood. The number of absolute misses on guys drafted within the first couple rounds, guys not even making it to full season ball is alarming. So many picks accumulated and so many have been complete busts already.

            Some of the pitchers legitimately could be impact starters – history tells us it is optimistic to expect too much. The farm is ranked low and do we really think it would be so much higher with Nichilino, Marisnick and Synderguaard in it? I suppose it likely would be quite a bit higher but not likely a top 10? It only takes a few to develop into big impact players to make it all worthwhile and the Jays certainly have used the large quantity of high risk high reqard formula under AA so it could really work out but not at all a sure thing. Davis could learn how to hit – what great tools though! Alford might start wanting to play baseball instead of division 3 football. Nay could turn into a power hitter. History tells us the chances are not all that great.

            For me it is mind boggling how the die hard knowledgeable and intelligent Jays fans completely dismiss JPR while annointing AA as a drafting phenom when the evidence does not point to this being the case for sure at all. In praising AA often people use JPR acquisitions to back that up and in shitting on JPR use AA pickups (like McGuire above). Really is an interesting thing and I just hope that in five years it isnt the same disdain for AA but rather a solid young rotation.

            • Outside of Hill it can be easily argued there is no true impact player in that group. I am talking a regular all star caliber type player that is good to very good over multiple seasons. Some of the others like Lind, Romero and Marcum have had a couple of good seasons but that’s it. Other guys are pen arms and while guys like Janssen and Cecil are good they are still pen arms. 6 years of JPR drafts have not produced much. Whether the JPR regime gets the blame for poor scouting, player selections and development or Rogers does for lack of spending can be debated. Did the lack of dollars influence the decisions? Regardless the record is what it is and what we are seeing currently proves it has not been good by any way you want to measure it.

              • Also i said major talent i never said just talent.

              • How many teams have a better drafting and development record than jpr did? By the article metrics he did better than average. It’s true there aren’t many way above average players on that list but it is a collection of solid regulars nonetheless. Marcum McGowan and litsch were a quality trio of young pitchers on a near playoff team for a few years. Jansen is a key piece on the current team and lind has been a middle of the order batter. Cecil was an all star last year. Despite the negativity Romero was and could become again an above average starter. Perennial all stars do not grow on trees and this list I doubt is bettered by over half the teams in the same stretch.

                • Lol you realize McGowan was drafted in 2000 and isn’t even a JPR pick right? Litsch had seasons of 1.5 war and 2.5 war before injuries. Marcum had a decent run of 2.9 to 3.9 war over three seasons. Both obviously had major injuries. With the exception of Marcum’s one good season at 3.9 war he’s your average middle of the rotation starter. Hardly an impact player outside of a single season. Again a few good players out of 8 draft classes covering 2002-2009. Again to be fair to JPR i think Rogers brutal cheapness during his regime had plenty to do with his record. When you draft based on signability and with an eye on quick band aid solutions you’re not going to get the best talent.

                  • Let’s put the emphasis on keeping guys healthy then if that’s the argument. Also please refrain from using WAR for pitchers…. I remember my first time on fangraphs lol…. The whole point of being upset about this is based on two things 1. Do we expect to have a protected pick in any of the next 5 yrs 2.Boras is right we have the richest owner in almost all of sport they should have some cash to throw around to QO free agents 3.i ran out of rant… K bye

            • @nick …Thanks for putting things in perspective. I didn’t think jpr had done as well as he did.

            • It’s easy to have a rosy view of AA’s drafting when the results are TBD … and the system keeps cranking out talent lauded by those in the industry, even if the Jays have dealt it elsewhere. If they hadn’t done last years deals, they’re still a top 10 farm system quite easily, you’d think, with all that stuff in the low minors and the two top 11 picks helping to keep it that way in the future. Sure, some of which will hit, most of it won’t. but I’ll take my chances with an organization that can constantly produce top ranked systems over what Ricciardi was doing. You’re right that he’s overly maligned, but his MO was to draft safely, and that’s reflected in what he accomplished. There might be something to the fact that Ricciardi’s farms were partially overlooked because of systemic bias against organizations that shitcanned so many scouts (this was a thing — Parkes wrote about it around here or at Getting Blanked at least one), and maybe AA is getting a bump the other way because he hired so many, but I’m certainly not ready to throw the credibility of the people publicly evaluating the systems under the bus. So… yeah.

        • I think jenkins might be ok, I thought he should’ve got more starts last year, he was way better than most of the shit that was thrown out there

          • I was just looking back cause I thought Rios was a JPR pick as well, he wasn’t, that was Gord ash in 1999 draft. Then I looked at the 99 team, that was a very good lineup, how they didn’t win more than 84 games I don’t understand. The current team looks like shit compared to that 99 team. BRING BACK GORD ASH! or is he dead?

    • Dude this is baseball not the nba. It takes time. Just wait for all these kids in A-ball

  3. Scariest season ever.

  4. I dont disagree with any of this,
    we need to pray for health and hope the guys that are capable of hitting the ball out of the park stay healthy and do just that.

  5. Keep remembering all the crap that was written about the Massholes last year at this time. It could happen again…..right? Right?

  6. i mean.. even a Marcum would be nice right now.

    • (Goes and looks up Marcum’s stats for last year)

      1-10, 5.29 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 3.64 FIP

      Well, I guess the WHIP and FIP are pretty respectable. It appears he’s a minor leaguer with the Indians this season though, competing for a rotation spot. Does not appear to have pitched in spring training yet, though–possible injury?

  7. The strange thing or I guess bad thing about the Romero comment was that he was talking about Romero’s previous 2 inning start that everyone was raving about.

    As for the velocity on guys like Hutchison and Drabek I wonder what radar gun he was going by. By all accounts the one in Dunedin is on the slow side by a couple of mph.

    That said, the reports on some of these guys kind of confirmed what I thought about the system, namely there isn’t a whole lot of impact talent that’s likely to help this year and possibly next. Which is all the more reason that I thought a pitcher or two plus a guy like Drew would have gone a long way to stabilizing the team and adding depth so they would have options to make additional trades. Sadly it looks like all the help is at least 2 or more years away which doesn’t really do anything for the core group that’s here now.

  8. The Lawrie hitting talk is more than a tad concerning. From Laws description saying over rotation this is a major fundamental issue – the most major issue there could be. All this work to stop the movement and move the hands etc may have been a fool’s errand. I assume that these pro coaches know what they are doing but an observation like that is alarming after mechanical changes in hands and pre pitch movement. This mirrors so much of the destruction I have seen coaches cause to hitters at the amateur level.

    At the end of the day hitting is about turning your hips into the ball and having the correct momentum transfer at point of contact – the “stacked” position that is so common in many ahtletic movements – that is it. How to get there for many people is personal preference. Things like the hands and wrists and movement is a big part of it and general guidelines make for more success on average and can help someone struggling get inline but a lot is personal preference – whatever works for you to get the correct position at point of contact and many conventional things people are told to do completely screw up their ability to hit the ball hard. If his hips are square to the pitcher at point of contact.

    My experience with hitting coaches at the amateur level – some touted – is they do more harm than good especially to someone who is doing well to begin with but is doing uncoventional things or has movement or “wrong” hand placement. If it aint broke dont fix it and just dont let any new bad habits creep in is my approach albeit with involvement in strictly amateur and now more recreational.

    But he later basically says “but I don’t really know about hitting anyway and if a hitting coach doesnt know what is wrong etc. If he is over rotating the hitting coach should know what is wrong! And if he is maybe he just needs to go back to anxious red bull driven moving all over the place try to hit the ball really hard approach and throw all the hand placement and lack of movement out the window. Its been clear his power has been sapped compared to what it seemed his potential was when he came up.

    To me, Lawrie really fits the mould of a 2B – was his defence really so bad there. Easy to point to Lawrie when questioning Jays player development having him learn 3B at MLB level, changing all this stuff in his swing at MLB level. I know he was doing well in minors but it seems pretty clear he could have used more development time in the minors

    • I’ll be watching how many ground balls he continues to hit. So many times over the last year and a half he ends up just hitting weak grounders. That’s miles away from the way he was driving the ball when he first came up. Maybe going the other way and up the middle gets him off that. I’ve said before that I would happily take an elite doubles hitter and less homers from him. If you look at his minor league numbers outside of his time in Vegas he never showed huge power.

      • The power he was showing when he came up wasnt necessarily home run power. He hit the ball hard a lot. The last couple years it hasnt seemed the same more weak grounders and lots more soft liner singles the other way or whatnot. Is it the pitcher’s or are his mechanics regressing? I don’t expect he is ever going to be a big time HR hitter but he did seem on the trajectory to hit lots of hard line drives moreso when he came up than now.

        • Well i believe that first season he showed incredible power which is what got a lot of people really excited. He had 9 homers in only 170 ABs and an ISO of .289.

          Again give me 40-50 doubles, 10-15 homers with his glove and i’d easily have a maple boner for most of the season.

          • Agree. And he’s more than capable.

            • Let me begin by apologizing for my behavior last week.

              I have a confession to make. I am actually a Blue Jays fan.

              I know, I know, weird eh?

              The only reason I did it was that I”m really superstitious. I figured that if you all got really riled up about it I would somehow allow god to have him sign with the Jays. I was wrong, I know that now.

              Anyhow, we had some laughs and good times.

              Just FTR, my dad doesn’t even work for Peter Angelos. However, I did drink on Karl Sagan’s grave.

              Listen, it hurts bad not to get Santana. But know what? We can make it through.

              With the exception of 1 SP and 2B, we are the same team we came into 2013. Expectations were too high. They are now too low. It will be a fun season.

  9. Way too many variables in play to take stock in an opinion of the second outing of ST (Hutchison, Drabek), who the fuck knows how they’re approaching their first ST after TJ.

    Same for Lawrie, what was it?, his 12th, 13th and 14th AB’s of ST that Law saw? Who knows what he was working on/ where he’s at with his prep.

    As for the Santana thing, Alex said it wasn’t a money issue, the guy wanted the best conditions to get a big contract. AA withholds info, but he hasn’t lied to us yet.

    I doubt Law’s editors would be content with a “it’s the second week of spring, it’s kinda hard to scout these guys” type report, and I doubly doubt he would get booked as a radio guest frequently if at least somewhat polarizing in his views for the sake of “good radio”.

    The only scout/writer I can get with is Jason Parks. His tempered reports demonstrate to me that he’s not trying to be the smartest guy in the room, and that he actually just really likes the game.

  10. Great post and additions to KLaw’s comments. Hard to disagree with any of it, although I do find the extent to which he’s down on Lawrie’s defence surprising. He looks better than what he’s describing, but maybe it’s just his abundance of “energy”?

    **take’s Lawrie’s balls from mouth**

    • It will interesting to see what the defensive metrics show this season with two new sets due to come out this season. Unfortunately, unlike offensive stats, the current ones are still rather subjective.

    • To me it seems like he makes some unbelievably good plays but also too many errors as well. The eye test certainly indicates that with the highlight reel plays he is able to pull off.

    • famous – didn’t read law’s take on lawrie’s D as that he’s necessarily down on it, just that it isn’t good enough to offset dismal offense.

    • I don’t really care what Law says about his defense, he’s pretty clearly in the top 3 in MLB for the position. As a hitter though, his story is really starting to remind me of Snider – very promising as a young late season call up, and then not much to get excited about afterwards. Not that they have similar profiles as hitters, but the results have been eerily similar.

  11. Holy fuck that was a depressing post. Wish I could argue with any of it, but no one really can.

    • Bullshit! Saint Law has got it completely wrong on Lawrie’s defence. He is elite as Andrew has stated, and for Law to suggest that he is strong average or slightly above average is a fucking joke. To qualify it with saying that it doesn’t make up for the offence is off-topic. Looking at his defence alone, Brett Lawrie is truly elite, and I challenge anyone to suggest a better 3rd baseman. Anyone, including Saint Freakin Law. Lawrie is young and made big strides last year at the plate, after what i think was Brett getting yelled at by his Dad during the all-star break. I don’t know what happened in September either, but he is making strides. And as possibly the best defender at his position in all of baseball, we can wait for his batting to come around. Especially with this new batting coach. So screw you Saint Law. You just went down in my books, definitely below saint status.

      • Here’s what I love about Law being down on Lawrie’s defense. He says, “Blue Jays fans have convinced themselves he’s the second coming of Brooks Robinson.” Uh, yeah, Keith – that’s because a couple seasons ago he was second in the AL in WAR (not just defensive, but total WAR) due to the out of zone bonuses he got for the shift before they changed how it was counted mid-season. Couple the buzz from breaking defensive metrics with how well he played at the bag and he had a much-deserved reputation as an elite defender.

        So now, after we’ve all seen that defensive metrics are a joke, Law wants to use those SAME metrics (oh, and his “eye test,” as if Law has any fucking idea) to say he’s trending downwards.

        It’s just a guy being a dickhead to a fan base, which is pretty much his shtick at this point. If he wants to be the guy saying, “That thing you like? It actually blows!” then who cares. It doesn’t make us look bad, it makes him look moronic because it’s obvious how transparently he’s trying to stir shit up.

  12. Wuck(Well fuck)

    All we can hope for is a trade for pitching that’s makes sense for the Jays, or just cross our fingers.

    As Fergie Oliver used to say……… LOOK OUTTTTT!

  13. Well I think he’s full of shit for the most part but bang on for the Jays not picking up a SP or an upgrade at second.

  14. Re:No. “@aurum626: @keithlaw How do you rate Ryan Goins defense? Enough to compensate for his bat?”

    I’m gonna throw out a theory I have on the 2014 season that conveniently shows Goins in a good light, but that I promise is based on good faith and logic……….

    Double plays will be down in 2014 due to instant replay (the call at 1st, not at 2nd as it is not a part of replay).

    This is based on my personal eye test and observations that runners are often the ones that get screwed on close calls, and now there will be not only a chance to correct the calls, but put pressure on umps to maybe go with the safe call more than they would have in the past.

    So great D for GB happy Dickey, Buehrle and Morrow (look at the 2012 numbers)

    +

    meth turf blues

    +

    DP margin of error

    =

    well, maybe not a “yes” to the question Law answered, but not a necessarily a flat out “no”

  15. I don’t read Law. Does he ever have a good thing to say about anyone?

  16. He speaks very highly of TomW

  17. Said he has a nice ass!

  18. I haven’t seen much of the Jays this Spring, and Law probably isn’t wrong in his assessments on Lawrie, Drabek and Hutchison. But fuck, the season is still 19-days away. I’m sure the players are still shaking off the rust and fucking around with new mechanics or pitches. If these three that were singled out are still looking terrible in 2 weeks, then maybe it will be time to think that Law’s words carry any weight.

    The only thing different between Romero of the last 2-years and now is he’s now a hairy shitty pitcher.

  19. Keith Law used to be a major league scout among other things so when he gives his opinion it’s not uneducated. My issue is that he is making assessments on guys after seeing one game. Scouts typically watch 10-20 games before making swing diagnosis or giving any projections.

    Law comes across more as a fortune teller here. He saw 3 innings of Hutch and 3 at bats by Lawrie. Hutch gave up a bomb to the number 1 ranked prospect on planet earth and if I’m not mistaken, when Lawrie was out in front and driving everything into the ground, wasn’t that off of Cliff Lee?

    For a blog that rips any information gleaned from SSS then I will hold off writing these guys off based on assessments made over an incredibly tiny sample by a guy who hasn’t scouted professionally in 10 years.

    This isn’t blind homerisim, I know this team has serious flaws. But I think for him to make these judgements and to add the pessimistic outcomes then he has missed the boat on Lawrie and Hutch.

    • plus Law was shit canned by the Jays and I would argue opining about baseball on a blog isn’t exactly at the same level as being actually employed in a front office. In other words, if his opinion was so good, he’d be running a team, not writing about it.

      • Dumb. You’re suggesting that because he was fired from the organization years ago he still carries a grudge? And worse, that because he doesn’t have a front office job means he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, or that if he did, he would be with a big league club? C;mon, DVH, this isn’t the Sportsnet site. Think about what you’re saying before leaving a silly comment.

        • oh right, bloggers that have great insight in scouting talent choose to be bloggers rather than be employed in a front office using those skills. ok, sure.

    • There are any number of flawed prospects that could have been criticized within our system that have issues – Stromans pitch plane, Pillars hit tool, Goses hit tool….etc

      I just don’t the negative outlook on the two young guys in our organization that have actually produced. And will actually produce. I don’t think Hutch becomes Mussina but his accuracy and changeup look like he could be a god 3-5 man.

      And Lawrie, injuries and a lack of field time are all that are stopping him from a breakout.
      And I can’t believe he doesn’t think Lawries glove is well above average. That’s the nuttiest part of this dump he laid.

    • I agree with your post but I don’t think Klaw was ever an MLB scout. He was a front-office analyst that learned some scouting while he was there.

  20. Synderguard got lit up today

  21. so apparently CC Sabathia is sitting at 86 and didn’t break 90mph in his last start. Yankees are saying they’re not worried, but the fact that Sabathia changed his body-type completely over the offseason kind of belies that.

    Doesn’t mean the Jays aren’t in trouble, but other teams have serious issues too.

    • That Yankees infield defence (particularly when Jeter is at short) could be brutal given age/injury concerns.

      • to that end, apparently Kelly Johnson made a couple errors at 3B today, a position he only manned for about 100 innings last year for the first time in pro ball.

    • Cecil tried the same thing with the weight loss in 2012 and it didn’t do a damn thing for his velocity. It wasn’t until he started using the weighted ball program and moved to the pen that his velocity spiked again.

      • exactly, that’s why I’d be skeptical Sabathia will ever get it back. I’m not sure he ever had really great command, more just got by on his +fastball/++slider/+changeup repertoire. I doubt he’s capable of all of a sudden spotting his pitches like Cliff Lee to compensate.

    • Sounds like someone needs the weighted ball program.

    • I think Sabathia’s done as an elite starter.

      • There’s often mention made of elite pitchers having an eight-year peak consisting of the eight consecutive seasons in which they put up the highest total WAR.

        For Sabathia, unless he turns in a ridiculous 2014, his eight-year peak ended in 2012. Last year was both the worst fWAR and worst bWAR of his entire career, which is amazing when you consider he pitched 211 innings last year. He’ll probably still be productive, but I agree with you–he’s done as an elite pitcher.

    • I read that he was only throwing cut fastballs which is why the velo is down. He’s bound to start losing it anyway just because of miles on the arm and age – but its spring – if its still like that in may then we’ll talk.

  22. wonder if the velo reports we’re hearing from the Jays are an effort to boost their value for a trade. Something like Hutch for Franklin or Hutch+ for Samardzija or whatever. It’s never a bad thing to pump your own tires.

    • The higher velocities i heard mentioned came from guys like Wilner who was getting it from scouts in the stands.

      • but whose scouts is the question. I’m sure they keep tabs on their own guys.

        Also, reporting him as touching 96mph sounds impressive but doesn’t really give you a feel at all for how hard he throws. Sounds to me like he’s about average velocity-wise (~91.3mph for starters last year).

    • Franklin fits AA mold perfectly under control until 2017…ish I don’t know ive had too many Mexican beers….. Makes so much sense to send Jansen +random player for him….. Batting average is low however his OBP is decent and versatile on the diamond is underrated

  23. Reading this blog and comments has been depressing lately.

    Shit isn’t this bad people.

  24. If the Jays do well….the same people will say they knew it all a long lol

  25. I’m glad that others are seeing the flaws in KLaw’s analysis because it sounds more like a guessing game to me.

    was on top of everything today, hitting almost every pitch where he made contact, fair or foul, into the ground. He may be over-rotating, considering that at the point of contact his hips are turned so much that that portion of his anatomy is facing the pitcher (it looks like more than a 90-degree turn from where his hips started). It may be that he’s trying so hard to keep his hands inside the ball that he’s not getting the bat around the ball enough when it’s out over the plate, a pitch he should be able to drive

    How many times does he have to say “may” before pointing something out? I’m sorry but if he was a scout in his past career then he should be able to recognize problems and be able to tell you their origin, not guess. Any fan who saw the game would be able to tell you that he was hitting the ball into the ground because, well, duhhh. So which one is it, Law? Is he over-rotating or is he trying too hard to keep his hands inside the ball? I also agree with the fact that he saw such a small sample size in ST. I consider some of this as quality, but a lot of it to be crap

  26. Law is a cock.

  27. problem with the prospect chats is that the responses are so short that they generally dont qualify their opinion with anything. asked about Lawrie’s defense, Law responds that Jays fans overvalue their own player, which of course is probably true, but he didn’t offer anything that would make me reconsider my evaluation of his defense.

    To me, Lawrie is a little rough around the edges defensively (not smooth and silky like Beltre or Longoria maybe), but he still has plus range and at least an above average arm, and I’m not sure how you argue against that.

    Over the last 3 years he ranks 2nd by DRS between Machado and Longoria and 17 runs ahead of Adrian Beltre in about 1000 fewer innings. By UZR/150 he ranks a more middling 12th among players with at least 1500 innings, although it should be noted that 1500 innings is basically one full season and UZR doesn’t stabilize they say for 3 years. 6 of the players ahead of him have even fewer than his 2300+ innings to go on (Uribe, Machado, Donaldson, Frazier, Alex Rodriguez and Brian Roberts).

    As to Law’s assertion that his defense cant carry his current bat – his career wOBA and wRC+ are .330 and 106 respectively, which makes him comfortably above league average for the position. He also ranks 7th over the last 3 years by Fangraphs baserunning metric.

    I mean what’s Law saying here? Above average defense + above average bat + above average baserunning = questionable regular?

    It seems like he’s just locked himself into an evaluation he made when Brett was a good bat/bad glove prospect and can’t get over the fact that he’s basically far and away beaten all the projections for his defense and therefore no longer has to hit very much to provide value.

    • Actual research refuting Klaw’s position. Very nice post.

      • Also klaw is someone who “resigned” from the jays…. Probably not overly favourable about anything this club does….. He was going nuts about stroman during afl season though

  28. Honestly Klaw and Wilner should buy season’s tickets and enjoy the ball games. Stop trying to act like know it all experts, these guys are clowns, posturing as knowledgeable sources in the industry.

    Anybody here Wilner last night telling the host on the radio that he was right and the host was wrong (on the topic of the Jays letting Santana get away) because he was “95″ certain Santana would be a Jay if Medlen didn’t get hurt”?

    • Wilner is a joke. He is a complete corporate shill. I take nothing he says seriously anymore. Was a time when he used to be good, now hes nauseating with his propoganda.

    • Lol ya I heard that. Also heard him saying Happ is as good a #5 as any…He was blowing Romero soooooo hard too…I know he was always a homer but wow – Iraqi information Minister territory

    • Say what you want about Wilner but law is a former scout and exec and literally charges people to read his baseball analysis

  29. AA has been a disaster. Fire the fat fuck

    • if the team is nowhere by July 1st, I hope hes gone. I cant rmember a team that was supposed to contend having this poor of an offeason. Might not be all his fault (rogers and beeston) but a a good GM finds ways to improve the team. Not leave ryan fucking goins at 2b and have drabek and happ in the rotation.

    • Jeezus fuck the kids love the attention? Yo?

    • I could not agree more Karten……AA that fat fuck should be washing dishes along the Danforth….certainly not running a major league baseball team.

    • After I saw this, I went onto google images trying to see if Anthopoulos was fat, as I had never heard anything about Anthopoulos’ weight before. It amazed me how hard it was to find an image of him that showed his full figure. There’s one image of him being interviewed by Strombo that makes him look enormously overweight, but the rest of the images, including ones that show his stomach, gave hints at having a bit of a pot belly but nothing conclusive, like a side-belly shot. He’s usually dressed heavily, with a figure-hiding suit on, or else a loose sweater, but it’s hard to tell. I guess there’s some evidence he might be fat, but the sample size is too small to say with any level of certainty.

  30. I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore !

  31. Good lord…how has everyone gone from the ecstatic euphoria of last off season where AA is a ninja genius to he’s a malaka who should have flaming bottles of ouzo thrown at him. A lot of you guys need to relax…the season hasn’t even started yet. And the sane people on this site know you’ll completely reverse your opinions if the season goes better than expected. Jumping Jesus Christ on a Pogo Stick I still love this site but the whining posted by some is getting out of control.

  32. 647 491 2252

    • Best comment of the offseason. So bizarre. Who’s calling it first?

    • We hear you’re leaving, that’s ok
      I thought our little wild time had just begun
      I guess you kind of scared yourself, you turn and run
      But if you have a change of heart …

  33. Whatever, they are bad shoppers this year…time to play ball bitches.Let it play out and hopefully there will be no more podcasts from the chosen ones.

    Radar call me, we will do lunch.

  34. Interesting piece about Lind. Personally I would like to see kitten face gone, but that is not the case so far.
    http://razzball.com/deep-league-thoughts-adam-lind/

  35. Good News!
    I’ was drinking my merlot tonight where I was and read that SANTANA is coming to Toronto after all. He will be here on June 10 to give a concert.. OH…wrong Santana-I think I am one of the few on here that remembers Carlos( well. except for maybe those ol cunts RADAR and Spuds). OY YE com o va or OH yee come on over!! OK I know it’s too late.
    Forward Soviet!!!( oops that might get me in trouble with the NSA spies. FUK man, where can ya go to just mouth off and not be tailed?)

  36. The sky is falling! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!

  37. Well Stoeten warned everybody not to read the post.
    It’s like telling the kids not to poke the dog’s asshole when it’s sleeping.

    With so many fans getting depressed I may need to present the counterpoint to all this doom and gloom.
    Or we could just say fuck it ,enjoy the game with a cold one and cheer the local nine for better or worse.

    • Where’s Smasher?
      Hes a hapless, hopeless homer.

      (And that second line is one of your more edgier offerings RADAR.)

  38. Fuck me folks come back off the ledge already.

    Cant believe how many people are losing their minds with 3 weeks of spring to go yet.

    For all you haters, the lineup looks glaringly similar to the one you were all raving about last year this time.

    Let the fuckin Santana thing go too. Think we’ve established he didn’t wanna come here. And who is to say Drew wants to come here. Who is to say Drew wants to even play 2nd. To me it looks like AA has given Goins the the nod of faith so lets root for the guy instead of shittin on him constantly.

    And its clear no one on here is down with giving up Stroman and Sanchez for the likes of a #3 like samjam so I don’t know what everyone expects AA to do but roll with what hes got.

    I think the pen is as deep as any of the ALE teams if not the deepest, the defense is going to be light years ahead of last years and the lineup will be lethal if healthy sporting a scary 1-4 in the order.

    Ya the #4 #5 starters will need to over achieve but why cant they

    Heres to Hutch!

    Another pint bites the dust!

    cheers

    • There are none so blind as those who will not see because they have their beer goggles on.
      God bless you chanse.

      Hell, I’m still pumping The Man from Muncie’s tires.
      Let’s play ball.

    • you do know that a season was played between the time everyone thought they were playoff bound (i.e. one calendar year ago) and today, right? and that the results from said season were, well, pretty conclusive, unless you want to believe that it was all due to abnormally poor seasons by most of their key personnel, or injuries, or both. so, how exactly would bringing back virtually the same team be cause for the same kind of excitement as last year? WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED LAST YEAR, and while they *should* be better simply due to a return to the mean for a slew of guys (plus staying healthy), there’s no telling what could happen…we WANT them to just ‘be better’ or be healthy, but while it seemed absurd at this time a year ago to think that things could go as wrong as they did then, it’s just as absurd to think that things will go perfectly this time around, which is basically what’s needed for them to compete.

  39. Hey guys, this picture was taken by ESPN this past winter in LA. Romero is going to be fine.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/k5vvg7664tfnzrq/PicsArt_1394777477606.jpg

  40. I disagree with Law regarding Hutch. Hutch was sitting 91-93 for most of his minor league career..and when he first came up to the bigs. He only started hitting mid 90′s in the last few starts before he got hurt. So I dont think his velocity is really down.

    As far as Lawrie goes, his swing is all kinds of fucked.

    Too much fucking around. He needs to go back to grip and rip and let his natural quicky hands and wrist take over.

    his batting stance right now is a joke. He’s about ten feet off the plate to compensate for kinks in his swing that have arisen as a direct result of too much tinkering.

    his current swing and stance are devoid of power.

    • So you are a fucking Sons of Sam Horn Scout…Yes? Or a fucking idiot…one in the same but just asking. If you are able to respond, go for proper english as that new england shit is, well dumb aye bawston!

  41. You can turn around your entire reputation draft-wise with just one good player. Not even a superstar (though that’d be ideal) but just one good, solid, everyday player who can contribute as a pre-arb player, then he re-signs an extension and becomes a franchise cornerstone.

    The Jays haven’t even had THAT in 12 years. Hill had a few good years and then was completely garbage for two seasons and got dealt (and then he became better than ever). Rios was hot and cold. Lind had one great year, three years of crap then another good year.

    The Yankees rose to greatness by developing Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Pettitte, Bernie Williams all around the same time. The Red Sox have been great in recent years thanks in large part to Pedroia, Lester, Ellsbury, etc. These teams are able to develop both stars and regulars, whereas the Jays can’t even generate a single reliable regular.

    • To answer your dumb questions:
      Yes
      No
      Fuck off!

    • Lol it wasn’t scouting or development. It was agents telling teams, “We won’t bother signing with you, so don’t bother drafting us. We’re only signing for the Sox or Yanks.” Oh then look at what talent falls to the Sox and Yanks in the draft after the agents pull that!

      Thank MLB’s drafting re-entering policy and short signing window.

      However the new draft allotment policy has changed that strategy, as the Sox and Yank only get so much signing money.

  42. Did we ever figure out why Drabek didn’t pitch yesterday? I’m pretty sure I saw him scheduled for a few innings, but he didn’t throw.

  43. Maybe he needs another Tommy John…

  44. I like Keith Law and respect his opinion. He is a dose of cold water when getting overheated about prospects. But he is also Captain Negativity. I read him for perspective, but also understand that he is an incredible pessimist.

    • Irish like me right?

    • Thats something that I’ve noticed too. If you went by his opinion there would be exactly 4 players who will go on to be legitimate MLB players.

      The wet blanket is needed for those who think that Moises Sierra will all of a sudden be Moises Alou.. but He HAS to be negative in general about the outlook for young players out of job protection. The best way to be right more often than not is to predict failure. Then when something goes right you can simply point to the concerns you had and say that he adjusted to improve. Even when you’re wrong you’re right!

      • it’s like stoeten’s trick of always writing a counter point to his main argument, and will preface it by saying, some would say, or this could maybe happen, and then when he looks back he can quote himself and suggest that he actually thought that way before it happened.

  45. Regarding Drabek, didn’t he have a much-lauded curveball that the Jays had him stop throwing the year before he got hurt, and now by Law’s account he’s still not throwing it now?

  46. According to BrooksBaseball.net:

    Drew Hutchison 2012 velocity: fastball averaged 91.69 mph
    Drew Hutchison 2013 velocity: fastball averaged 91.61 mph

    The 2012 number is from his major league time, the 2013 number is from his time in the AFL at the end of the season. The latter is only 25 fastballs but I think it’s fair to say there’s been no diminishing of velocity because of TJ. If it’s low this spring it’s probably because it’s fucking spring training and he’s still working up the arm strength.

    It’s always been rated as more of a slightly above average to fringe-plus fastball than anything overpowering or dominant, but the pitch plays up because he’s traditionally been able to command it very well. I’m still super excited about Hutch. Nothing has changed for me.

    • I thought Klaw’s comment about his velocity was weird because I always thought it always averaged 91-93. Fangraphs tells the same story if you look at his velocity chart. He had a 91-94 mph fastball until the last 3 or 4 starts when it ticked up 1 or 2 mph and then he got hurt.

      If he’s touching 94-95 and sitting 92, that’s perfectly fine for him. He has above average control and a plus changeup and that’s enough for me to be excited about him.

      • People are so obsessed with where a guy sits with velocity – its crazy. When you look at the numbers available, If Hutch had qualified last year he would sit right in between Felix Hernandez and Zack Grienke. Not making any comparison of quality – but the fact that those two sat at 91.3 and 91.7 respectively tells you there is more to a fastball than velocity. You don’t need to sit 95. There are literally 8 qualified pitchers who sat 94 or higher last year, Strasburg and Harvey being the only TWO(!) who sat higher than 95.0.

      • I think Law is probably far too professional to make this error, but:

        If he hasn’t been exposed to enough of Hutchison to easily recongize all of his pitches, maybe he mistakenly though Hutchison’s sinker was his four seamer? The sinker is 1 or 2 miles per hour slower which would likely account for some of the 90-ish pitches on his gun.

        • Law is certainly a pro – but these types of wrong pitch characterizations happen all the time especially when you’re not confirming with pitch fx etc afterwards. The sample on Hutch is very small. His pitch arsenal is not widely known. Guys are working on things in spring. They’re not up to speed. All of this can account for why the data might suggest lower velocity. None of it will mean a thing until May when we have a sample of data in real games to judge.

  47. So Jeff Blair is saying that the team’s upper brass is very concerned and nervous with what they’ve seen from Brandon Morrow this spring. He said that it’s possible they push Morrow back in the rotation so that he gets the fifth start of the season.

    • If they are really that concerned, moving his initial start back a couple of days won’t matter much. Maybe they should’ve acquired an SP or 2 like they had planned…

      • Well said gdr

      • This was exactly the worry that made Santana on a 1 year deal such an must. What is going to happen to the Blue Jays when they’re pinning all of their hopes on the marginal depth they’ve stockpiled.. its crazy.

        • Yeah, I’m not a fan of their depth either… I know it’s better than last year certainly, with Hutchison, Drabek and Luis Perez back and they may feel more comfortable this year about stretching out McGowan. However, if Morrow is iffy performance-wise and Happ starts the year hurt, and Hutchison and ____ are already your #4 and #5 options, you don’ t have a ton left. I liked Boston’s move of picking up Capuano, because it gives them added options. If the Jays lose Redmond and Jeffress, you’re down a couple more guys. I dunno. Santana would have helped immensely, but we should come to terms with the fact that he’s gone.

          There are couple options left on the FA market though, aren’t there? Are Jeff Neimann and Jeff Karstens and Barry Zito still available? They can provide depth, can’t they, and be decent enough contributors?

  48. Just listened to the interview on 590 on demand that Stroman gave with Wilner and Blair. I’m pulling for the guy – obviously radio interviews are usually a lot of fluff, but he sounds like he’s got a great approach. You can hear why baseball people are so high on his makeup and why they were quick to dismiss the suspension. Sounds like a smart guy with a good perspective on what he’s doing.

  49. 2015 Blue Jays GM : Keith Law

    • Scouting and evaluations are an inexact science.
      Players develop,improve or regress and flame out , as time pogresses
      From Law’s 2010 prospect list.
      10 -Jesus Montero
      14- Dominic Brown
      20-Brett Wallace
      24-Michael Taylor
      47- Brett Lawrie
      49-Mike Trout
      55-Zack Stewart

      Definitely cherry picked and other lists are similiar.
      Not to lessen Law’s opinion just to point out,even the best evaluations don’t always foretell the future.

  50. Amazing to see that Atlanta took two days to do what the Jays couldn’t do in the entire off season; see a need and fill it. No excuses, they just went out and did it.

    • Actually they did the exact same thing Toronto did, offered the dude a one year, $14 million deal. Just turns out he was a lot quicker to accept that one than the Jays.

  51. I am so pissed about people talking intelligent baseball talk. It makes me want to go all TSN on you! Somebody call the new Don Cherry (Stoeten) and life will be a bowl of …….

    ……

  52. Romero has been better this spring – and by that I mean compared to the extraordinarily ugly performance he’s given over the last 2 seasons.

    He’s hit the strike-zone often enough that combined with his offseason knee procedure – he’s ALMOST convinced me that he MIGHT not be totally broken.

    That said, he has yet to pitch early in a spring training game, which severely limits the quality of the already diluted and rusty opposing lineups. Additionally, it’s spring training and hitters may be more aggressive than they ordinarily would be as they try to get their timing down – despite this, Ricky has still walked almost as many as he’s struck out.

    I vote we let him have a month or two in AAA before we start talking about his triumphant return.

    • yep, a month to see if he is consistent would do the trick.

      Otherwise, why waste the fact he’s not on our 40 man?

  53. Not to shit on Law, as I already argued my points above and I think Garold probably punched a huge hold in his views on Hutch with MPH numbers but….

    In 2012 Goldy had a breakout year in Zona, Klaw said he would regress hugely and would be a platoon guy the rest of his career.

    All Goldschmidt did in 2014 was go .302avg/ .401 OBP/ .551 slg/ .952 ops
    and finish second in MVP voting.

    I like Laws analysis of trades, his curt responses to commenters and his love of food but he misses as much as anyone when it comes to player projections. And I think he just missed huge here in his evaluation of Hutch and Lawrie. Especially since he’s using 3 innings and 3 at bats. Madness.

  54. The Jehovah’s just came to my door and said the Jay’s will be okay. Just curious if they have anything to do with Jimmy Hendrix?

  55. Anybody that gets MLBN will want to tune in now as Alan Ashby is on the Astros TV broadcast, vs. the Cardinals.

  56. Honestly, what standards does K-law hold these guys to?

    He always seems to have his panties in a knot….

  57. Stotes has been pushing his twitter account p hard lately. Thats alright and all, but quoting random tweets of his own made me cringe. So shameless about it

    Tsk Tsk

  58. I’ve been one of the biggest doomsday sayers with AA’s inability to obtain any impact starters who would at least push the Redmond/Rogers/Happ/Drabek ugliness into the bullpen or AAA (love Hutchison as #5). But after the Santana fiasco and opening day only weeks away, I’m going to start drinking the kool-aid and hope for a freakishly strong start. Not a 1984 Tigers 35-5 start, but enough to give us some breathing room.

    Then, I’ll take another sip and hope we trade for a Shields type and not have to give up stroman or Sanchez.

    I mean, if Bautista, Reyes, lawrie, melky can stay healthy I think we have the best offence next to Baltimore and we win those 7-6 or 6-5 games.

    Who’s with me?!?!

  59. [...] Drabek allowed 8 earned runs, 10 hits, and 6 walks while striking out four. As noted by Keith Law (h/t DJF), Drabek is “approaching two years since the surgery, so more of his stuff would be back by now [...]

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