hutchthrows

I’m headed to the ballpark tonight, which is a bad omen for the Jays, considering they’ve yet to win a game in which I’ve been in attendance, but I figured I should mention it anyway, given that my unpreparedness had made it so that this may be all the Game Threat you’re going to get.

Hey, but you know what, after a bit of a doom-and-gloom couple of days with the starts from R.A. Dickey and Dustin McGowan, the Jays still have a chance to win the series. So that’s pretty good, right? And we’ve got a great weekend of baseball in store, too, with Buehrle-Peavy, Morrow-Buchholz, and Dickey-Lester all coming up on the schedule. I mean… it might not go terribly well, but there’s a lot of potential for those matchups to be fun as fuck.

Comments (415)

  1. “if you walk him, it’s not big deal”

    shut the fuck up tabbie

  2. That’s the game folks

    Can’t stop them and we’ll go quietly offensively

  3. Pitching lets them down again but I have to say the approach at the plate still sucks.

  4. that’s a BS hit, ugh.

  5. I don’t get pitching Davis away, but leaving shift on. Hit it right to where Reyes should have been. Taylor made DP, out of inning, Cecil the hero.

  6. I totally thought Rogers wasnt going to give up any runs. For serious.

    • I’ve got a bridge I can sell you.

      • The line always reminds me of that episode of Night Court when a fellow sent the city of New York a cheque for $5 for the Brooklyn Bridge.

        Since the city cashed it, the bridge belonged to him.

  7. Stick a fork in this one.

    Oh wait, Gibbons already did by bringing in Rogers.

  8. The luck is going all Orioles

  9. This team is starting to depress me. Anthopoulus your shitty non-moves are really paying off. Asshole.

  10. Just an FYI – the YES boys have just finished talking up the Blue Jays. They like ‘em + think they’ll do well [better than expected] this year. So it’s not just Buck + Tabby who like opposing teams/players.

  11. Just sweep the Red Sux is all I ask

  12. The look on Gibby’s face is priceless….FML.

  13. Stoeten may call me an idiot but god dammit this pisses me off.

  14. we have one of these wheels fall off innings every loss

  15. We should of had Stoeten evicted after the 5th inning

  16. No matter how you feel about Hutch’s body of work this evening, I think we can all concur he’d have fared better than the THREE bullpenners who gave up FIVE runs (and counting) this inning.

  17. Welp, time to take a break from the jays.

  18. Rogers: the human white flag.

  19. I guess GIbbons felt that 2 runs was too much to overcome. No other reason to put Esmil in.

  20. Amazing, Scope started the inning with a scorched shot to Reyes and it took until the 8th hitter (Hardy) to get a easy out.

    Very discouraging, the walks from the pen are killing this team

  21. jays will put up another couple of useless runs, just watch.

  22. Chin up people. The Jay still have 9 outs to work with.

    • they needed to tack on some runs against that shitty ass norris. second game in a row they could have knocked the starter out of the game and let them off the hook…and then blew a 3 run or greater lead

  23. You can’t fault Rogers on that hit Weiters got shit lucky.

    • I think we’re all faulting Gibbons on that one because he should know that Rogers sucks. How about bringing in someone that can get a K?

  24. Face it . Rogers = SUCK, Redmond = SUCK, Bench = SUCK, 3/5 of starting rotation = SUCK, and Gibbons = Retarded. I’m just mad at myself for thinking maybe…just maybe.

    But 22 games now and that is a statistically valid sample size to make accurate predictions from. This team is .500, no better, unless big a move or three is made.

    • “But 22 games now and that is a statistically valid sample size to make accurate predictions from”

      No, it really isn’t.

      • Actually it is. And once you hit 30, central limit kicks in and you can, with 95% confidence, start predicting outcomes. (I’m a statistics geek – MSc). Trust me, it;s true.

        • The Rays and Red Sox aren’t gonna lose 90 games.

        • It is a more statistically valid sample to say with greater certainty than a coin flip what range of wins the team will end up with. There is a great piece on this in the BP book _Extra Innings_.

          I’m a bit concerned, though, that a self-described “stats geek” has concluded from this sample size that the Jays are a .500 team. That is most definitely not what this sample size says…

          • Projected Winning Percentage = G/(G+16)*W% + (1-G/(G+16))*.500

            G = number of games played
            W% = winning percentage

            At this point in the season that obviously FAVOURS a .500 record much more than a coin flip. But it’s also more fair to say there are a range of wins shrinking toward .500 every game the Jays remain around this number.

            (Formula developed by Derek Carty at BP)

            • “much more” was supposed to read “with more statistical certainty”. Sorry. No damned edit button.

              The point at which R > .50 is after 16 games actually. By game 17, R > .50

            • Interesting. But I read that as pretty much confirming what I am saying. Remember I am talking about predictions and probabilities, which is the same as saying “favouring”. Nothing is carved in stone; we are only discussing trends – but they don’t look good.

              • @Arthur – The thing is I would say you could make a case that there is a large enough sample to predict the Jays as a 74-88 win team. The Jays would finish with a record nestled in there more than 50% of the time with this start.

                Of course, it’s baseball. There are all kinds of outliers beyond the standard deviation. I agree that they are trending in the direction of .500 in a statistically significant way (i.e. more than random chance), though, for what it’s worth.

            • This was also a chapter in the BP book “Extra Innings”. Great read for anyone interested.

        • You might want to get a refund on that MSc.

          • That’s a pretty ignorant comment. I’m just trying to have an interesting, civil, dialogue. What is your statistical analysis? Do you have anything intelligent to say?

        • No Jays pitcher has appeared in 22 games yet.

        • Please tell me you don’t really believe that you can extrapolate a 162-game season from 30 games with 95% certainty. That’s complete baloney.

    • I hear you, Art. Good news is, I’d say odds are at about 2-1 Gibby is gone by the end of May and we get an actual manager who uses TACTICS like Mr. Showalter.

    • is that what the st. louis cardinal are ?

      is boston going to lose 90 games?

      are the yankees going to win 100 games?

      • Roughly 5% margin of error (which is bigger than it seems). But possibly… yes. I mean that’s what you’d want to put your money on. Seems counter-intuitive because it is. But Moneyball was built on this stuff.

        • no. if you read Tom Tangos book “the book” moneyball is built on far larger sample sizes.

          20 games is considered a crap shoot

          for example, batter vs pitcher results arent considered significantly until over 200 plate appearances.

          • True but I was not referring specifically to that, which works for individual players, but not the same way for TEAMS of individuals. Each game basically gives you data to do a meta-analysis of the team as a whole and that is MUCH more powerful that predicting based on individual results. Therefore, you can use a much smaller sample size with which to predict results with confidence.

            Now, NOTHING is a sure thing, of course, but if you look at all the teams starts to the season over the first 20 games over a hundred years, you would find that, about 95% of the time, they finished with a winning percentage very close to that initial 20 game sample. Believe me I would LOVE to see the Jays be one of those 5% outliers…but sadly, probability says they won’t be.

          • for example, batter vs pitcher results arent considered significantly until over 200 plate appearances.

            What batter and pitcher get 200 plate appearances against each other? Mike Schmidt topped out at like 150. Hank Aaron faced one guy 200 times: Don Drysdale. Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Ted Williams and Wade Boggs never did.

  25. Feel for Hutch…quality start ruined by an overworked bullpen. AA’s slow paying the market is beginning to hurt the team.

    • what does that have to do with what happened tonight?

      they got a solid start of 6 innings.

      a rested pen.

      what signing would have changed what happened? Not like signing another starter would have helped. Hutch gave up 2 ER in 6.

      • A signing would put McGowan in the bullpen, where he was very effective last year. Would you prefer McGowan or Rogers?

        • rogers came in after the lead was already blown. he wouldnt be in the game otherwise.

          the outcome of this game has nothing to do with the lack of offseason signings. this had to do with shitty execution by the guys who would have been in there no matter who we signed.

      • huh? “feel for Hutch..quality start” If we had “quality starts” by our rotation, our pen wouldn’t be overworked. Our Pen has been exposed . Lastly, if we had another starter other than Buehrle that could eat up innings, Santana comes to mind, hence my slow playing the market, our pen would be rested to challenge on a daily.

  26. Amazing how the O’s go from looking like a piece of shit team to unbeatable in a day or two

  27. Chin up people. The Jay still have 6 outs to work with.

  28. How in the fuck did we let Bud Norris go that many innings. We got him on the ropes early than everyone goes home run crazy and starts swinging at everything. I wish this team could show more patience at the plate after an early lead.

  29. pewty and the rest of you shitbawlers (see what I did there) are lucky you’re not ball players who can’t mentally be whiny princesses or they wouldn’t be able to do the next thing … of course you can’t understand why managers sit placidly there and watch the game as if they have no emotions … jeesh

  30. It feels like all the teams in the AL are fairly close in terms of talent. Other than the Twins, the Astros, and the White Sox, is there any team that’s significantly more talented than any other team? I think you would be hard-pressed to say the Jays are significantly better or worse than any of those teams.

    Which is why it’s frustrating to watch the Jays blow a winnable game like this. They need to beat the O’s, especially at home.

  31. You hit Schoop. You just hit one of their automatic outs, Rogers, you idiot.

  32. This offense is pissing me off. Reliant on Hrs, dont take pitches, strike out a ton. 7-3 is not insurmountable if you are a good offensive team. Tommy hunter sucks. Cant have such poor quality ABs

  33. That automatic out just hit a home run

  34. Tabby: “You don’t want to get hit there (pinky finger) because you can get a broken finger.” Really? Well you don’t want to get hit in the nuts….

  35. hopefully we can get rogers DFA’s after tonight

  36. Ruh-roh for Ishmael

  37. What’s pissing me off is we controlled this game (again) for more then half of it and pissed away another lead.

    Fucking no lead is safe and any late deficit is insurmountable with this team

    At least the O’s will break it open right now so had we put together a mini rally, we won ‘t be frustrated by more false hope.

  38. Stoeten is cursed.

  39. I hope the Jays are watching and learning what it’s like to actually hit for the entire game

    • Exactly. The orioles offense is relentless. The jays swing at a bunch of garbage pitches and get themselves out. Also, the orioles dont have a shittacular hitter like goins in the lineup

      • That’s how the Jays HAVE to play in the AL East. Every other team in the division are known for it.

    • Except for the first 5 innings where the O’s didn’t hit?

  40. Seriously, if we can get Rogers df’ad , its worth the loss.

    I Just hope gibbons leaves him out there to rot.

    • It’s like seeing a bad car wreck, I know it’s going to be ugly, but somewhere inside of me, a sick individual cant help but stare.

  41. Well at least this will probably get Esmil waived and the Jays might go with a sane 7-man bullpen.

    Who am I kidding? AA will be calling up Chad Jenkins any moment to fill that spot.

    • Nah, AA’s ego can’t stand to admit how completely Cleveland hosed him with that trade.

      Rogers is here to stay.

  42. We’re going to need some quality starts here soon because the may schedule is relentless with very few off days.

  43. Well the wheels have come off. We’re in a tailspin. And left the stove on at home. Nothing to do now but get blind drunk and try to forget this mess.

  44. Time to warm up a position player for the 9th.

  45. LOL, every ball off an Oriole bat right now is literally “seeing eye” my god are they carving us up

  46. Ramble On, And now’s the time, the time is now, to sing my song.
    I’m goin’ ’round the world, I got to find my girl, on my way.

  47. Well I’m off to watch another episode of Wicked Tuna, I’ve had enough of this shit show. Tomorrow’s another day.

  48. FUCK ROGERS

    I have spoken.

  49. At what point would I start plunking guys vs letting them hit the most pathetic seeing eye ground balls and end of the bat bloops? About 9 hitters ago. Sweet chin music to all hitters.

  50. GOB BLUTH answered 7 years ago
    Something magic happens, everytime you go
    You make the magic happen, the magic of Orioles’ Baseball!

    When the game is close, and the O’s are hot
    There’s a thundering roar from 34 to give it all they’ve got

    And you never know who’s gonna hear the call
    Every game there’s a different star
    That’s the magic of Orioles’ Baseball!

    Orioles Magic! Feel it happen!
    Orioles Magic! Feel it happen!

    O – R – I – O – L – E – S !

    Magic! Magic! Magic! Magic!

    Something magic happens, everytime you go
    You make the magic happen, the magic of Orioles’ Baseball!

    When Weaver moves and we score the runs
    Nothing could be more exciting
    Nothing could be more fun!

    There’s a love affair between you and the team
    You’re the reason we win when we win
    And you know what the magic means!

    Orioles Magic! Feel it happen!
    Orioles Magic! Feel it happen!
    Orioles Magic! Feel it happen!
    Orioles Magic! Feel it happen!

    O – R – I – O – L – E – S !

    Magic! Magic! Magic! Magic!

    Orioles Magic! Feel it happen!

    Magic! Magic! Magic! Magic!

    Something magic happens….

  51. going to be 1-6 in last game of series this yr. pretty amazing we’re at 500 in reality

  52. My slow pitch team would crush Rogers

  53. Was actually conaidering going to this game. Thank fuck i didnt

  54. Just have to face facts and realize that we’re fans of a mediocre mlb team. At least we aren’t Cubs fans, right?

  55. What’s really annoying is that davis bases loaded excuse me swing was pure bull shit. if he strikes out there, the entire outcome would have been different.

  56. Back to .500. And with Boston coming through town, .500 is going to seem like a sweet and distant memory. The Jays always lose to Boston. Remember when we could at least beat Baltimore regularly?

  57. Guys… the Orioles are a good team. The season series is 3-3. Not too bad.

    If they go around .500 against the ALE and pick up extra wins here and there from outside the division, they’re gonna be fine.

    • Baltimore is a good team. But there’s no excuse for coughing up leads. Which our pitchers have been doing on a regular basis. How many of our losses have been come-from-behind wins for the other team?

      • Exactly. These squandered leads, especially against AL East teams are just a killer.

      • Teams come back from 2 or 3 run deficits all the damn time. The Jays came back from 3-0 in the 6th to win 9-3 this very series.

        For every lead they give up they manage to retain another two.

        • You’re right Bob, it happens a lot. However, in order for the Jays to contend, they need to have better records against their division rivals. That’s why this winnable series hurt.

  58. Peavey, Bucholz, and Lester….we dont have good historical performances against this trio.

    lets see what our “top three’ rotation guys can do to keep us in the game.

    even if buehrle gets lit up, no one better say shit about that. hes due a shitty game..and he’s owed some serious slack.

    RA Dicksmack on the other hand? he better bring it.

  59. Gibbons is dogshit. Can’t stand his WTF looks.

  60. Tabby…SHUT THE FUCK UP.

  61. Redmond looks dominant . now that it doesnt matter.

  62. Remember that time Goins hit a homerun?

  63. JAYS 1-6 IN LAST GAME OF SERIES THAT IS PATHETIC

    JAYS JUST ROLL OVER AND DIE

  64. They play again tomorrow. The Beer Store will be open. And it will be Friday.
    Lot’s to smile about

  65. Well that game was excrement.

    Ugly

  66. *sigh* Seems like it was just an hour or two ago that we happily chatted about butts. Let’s aim to return to those halcyon times by 7:07pm tomorrow. Or maybe a bit later if I get caught up @ the grocery store…

  67. Can’t wait for Saturday game against Spitball Buchholz.

  68. That game was horrible but it wasn’t as bad as Mencherson and Toothpaste T’s.

  69. I feel like Rogers is close to getting DFA’d.

    AA’s done a great job with the team, but if there’s one thing I’ve seen AA do, it’s issuing DFAs to players who have a bad game or stretch of games.

    I do wonder what it was that made Rogers so effective at the start of last season. Prior to the end of July, he had made nine starts and only got blown up once. It’s like Rogers has lost all confidence.

  70. Hey sample size freak now official. The team is a non starter in the AL. Rebuild is in the pipes and that sucks

  71. I wish Darron Olivier had stuck around.

  72. I don’t exactly blame Rogers or Cecil for that shitshow. This rotation needs to stop being incompetent dickholes and pitch more than 4 innings. The bullpen is obviously overworked.

    Morrow, Dickey and, to a lesser extent McGowan need to get their shit together. Yes it’s early, but fuck, they’ve already pissed away 3-4 games because of this.

    • Need a couple of starters to go 7+ innings for a change.
      I’d rather let McGown or somebody get shelled in the 6th inning than slowly burn up the pen. Sometimes ya gotta take a shellacking for the team. Or let ONE ‘pen guy go two innings – and fuck this gotta do the lefty-righty matchup bullshit, (which I personally think is overblown)

  73. God, I’m glad I don’t read these things while I watch the games. People say a whole lot of stupid things in the heat of the moment.

  74. So about that Smardjzia trade… please make it AA

    • I’d rather the Jays stick to this for a couple more weeks and see if the rotation can turn it around. If not, giving Stroman a start or two might not be the worst idea. I’m not keen on the Jays starting his arb clock this early, but I’m not keen on the Jays losing either.

      Also, at this stage I think Stroman may only be lower on the depth chart than Happ strictly because Happ is out of options.

    • Samardzija will NOT extend if Jays move for him. Plus Cubs want way too much: Sanchez + Stroman. Good luck Cubs. Shark will walk at year end.

  75. wow, it sure would be nice to have Santana in this rotation.

    • When Aaron Harang was released I thought AA would grab him as SP insurance. Too bad. Harang and Santana have been excellent for Braves, albeit in the NL.

  76. We’re still at .500 and April isn’t over yet. The Jays didn’t get their 11th win last season until May 5, when they were 11-21, so it’s definitely not over.

    I will say that I’d rather see another manager get a shot at this before we blow it up, though. And I will add that being .500 is not a reason to blow the team up. We’re only two games out of first.

    • ya don’t mind the people calling to blow the team up. It is over-emotional reactionary thinking. The team has its head above water with only 2/5s of its starting rotation performing and struggling bullpen.

      • Not to mention poor performances and injuries from some key offensive players in Reyes, Encarnacion, Lawrie, Rasmus and Lind. It’s amazing that they’re even a .500 team right now given those struggles, and if they can tread water while those players get healthy/heat up, they could end up having a very good season.

        • I’ve been thinking for a while that this is the kind of team that will tread water for most of the season and just needs that one really hot stretch to put them in the playoff conversation.
          And they’ve got a roster than can go on that tear. If they have a three week period where the top four in the order are all hitting, and the bullpen goes back to being stalwarts, they could go on one of the 15-5 stretches.

          • I don’t expect the bullpen to continue to struggle the way they have lately, either. Their last four losses have come in games where their normally reliable bullpen arms imploded and blew a lead (Delabar and Santos against Minnesota, Loup against Cleveland, Redmond in game two against Baltimore, Cecil last night).

            You can’t expect them to come in and shut everyone down every night, but they’re going to be a whole hell of a lot better than what we’ve seen the last week.

    • its true, I would like to see another manager as well.

      one who could get ryan goins to hit and dickey,morrow and mcgowan to go deeper in to games and pitch well.

      Like joe maddon.. did you know that david price was a right handed third baseman before Maddon had the genius of turning him in to a left handed starting pitcher.

      #firegobbins

      • I do think it’s too early to fire Gibbons, though. If the team is below .500 in June, I think that’s when Gibbons would need to go.

  77. Our biggest hurdle at the RC this year is keeping a Mr. Andrew Stoeten out of the park. Aren’t we something like 0 for 27 with him in attendance.
    Just sayin….

  78. Buehrle and Dickey in this series is a good thing. They have a chance to win it, but it will depend on the pen no doubt.

  79. Jays sign Aussie pitcher Ryan Rowland-Smith to a minor league deal with a June 1 opt-out. I leave for a trip to Australia in exactly three weeks, returning on June 1.
    That’s gotta be some sort of sign.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/04/blue-jays-to-sign-ryan-rowland-smith.html

  80. While I’m loathe to tag anything from TSN (unless it’s hilariously stupid comments), this is something I was wondering about myself:

    http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/scott_macarthur/?id=450422

  81. Well, I have peavy on my fantasy team so at least my bets tonight are somewhat hedged…

    But in all seriousness, dickey and morrow need to get their shit together. Not that fussed about McGowan since he is the 5th starter and most 5th starters are marginal or garbage. McGowan doing well would have been a nice bonus / surprise.

    AA: our biggest need is 1 if not 2 starters. Yet, we got fucking nothing. So, none of this should be a surprise. We are only lucky everyone is having pitching issues. That’s not going to last all year. At some point one or two teams will start to get their shit together and if we don’t, it’ll be a fire sale by the all-star break.

  82. Buehrle gonna Buehrl

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