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In this guest post from Kyle Matte we look at data from past drafts and try to find trends that will help us identify the types of players the Blue Jays could target next month with their two very high picks. Follow Kyle on Twitter at @KyleMatte.

The 2014 MLB Draft begins with its first round on the night of June 5th, roughly one month from today. Unlike the other three major sports, baseball has its draft in the middle of its regular season, and not only that, but before the conclusion of the seasons being played by the amateur talent being acquired. In hockey, football, and basketball, the organizations have months to comb through game tape and interview potential selections in preparation. As such, a player’s most recent in-game performance carries less weight than the total package of data. Things are drastically different with baseball. A strong month or two in the spring can vault a prospect up draft boards — often termed “helium” —  while a very poor start to the season can severely damage the stock of a player, causing him to slide and lose hundreds of thousands in bonus money in the process. As a result of this unique situation, mock drafts are next to useless any earlier than just a few days before the actual draft takes place.

What we can do, however, is soak up as much information as possible from past drafts in an attempt to identify an archetype for what an organization looks for in amateur talent. There are thousands of draft-eligible prospects between United States post-secondary schools and high schools across the U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico, so it’s impossible for any scouting department to get eyes on everyone. By identifying trends in the historical data, you can develop a more precise idea of what the scouts might be watching for, and therefore who an organization might be targeting.

This brings us to the Toronto Blue Jays, the only organization in baseball to possess two picks in the draft’s first round (compensatory round not withstanding). We’re not talking about the late first round either – the selections are ninth and eleventh overall in what is supposed to be a talent-rich group. It would be less than truthful to claim June 5th has the potential to be franchise-altering, as even with first round picks it seems like you’re flipping a coin as to whether or not they’ll amount to anything whatsoever, but needless to say it will be a big day for the front office as they continue to try and fill the void created by the trades of the winter of 2012.

In hopes of defining a “Blue Jay Way”, I immersed myself in as much information as possible from the 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013 draft classes. Starting with a list that exceeded 150 names, I slowly trimmed the group to 80. The sample is all prospects drafted (not necessarily signed, mind you) by the Blue Jays who had a notable signing bonus and/or an extensive pre-draft scouting report from which to gauge talent level. I believe by narrowing the list in this way, we have a conglomerate that best defines the attributes that the Blue Jays most desire. As an example, while Tucker Donahue was a fourth round pick in 2012, the fact he signed for a pittance by bonus standards indicates it was his signability that the club sought, not his talent. He, and players like him, were removed from the data cluster to avoid skewing the archetype away from the relevant information: talent and tools.

Defining The “Blue Jay Way”

I’ve been closely following the draft for a number of years now, and when it’s the Blue Jays turn to select, analysts almost uniformly use some combination of the words “athlete”, “projectability”, and “upside” when put on the spot to make a prediction for the club. With this investigation I was able to not only determine the validity of those statements, but to take it a step further and start attaching some numbers, trends, and thresholds to what could loosely be classified as the “Blue Jay Way”. The end-game of this exercise is to then project those patterns onto the 2014 draft class in hopes of identifying who might sit atop Toronto’s draft board. But first, some background on the historical grouping of 80:

  • 50 pitchers (63%), 30 position players (37%)

  • 58 high school (72%), 15 four-year college (19%), 7 junior college (9%)

These two points are likely unsurprising to even the most casual of draft followers. The Blue Jays love them some pitchers, and they really love them some high schoolers. If I had any talent with Photoshop, you’d be looking at a picture of Alex Anthopoulos’s head on Matthew McConaughey’s body in the incredible film Dazed and Confused: “That’s what I love about these high school girls, man. I get older, they stay the same age.” [Note: turns out I'm not entirely awful with it -- A.S.]

Given where the draft picks played ball – not their place of birth – I summarized states into groups to help identify possible regional trends. Whether the trend is a result of an organizational bias or merely the density and/or location of scouts and cross-checkers, it offers valuable insight into where the club has boots on the ground. Below, you can see a breakdown of the seven regions I classified, as well as some of their notable states.

  • South: 22 (27%) – Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri

  • Southwest: 21 (26%) – California, Arizona, Nevada

  • Southeast: 14 (17%) – Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee

  • Midwest: 8 (10%) – Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky

  • Other: 7 (9%) – Canada, Puerto Rico

  • Northeast: 6 (8%) – New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts

  • Northwest: 2 (3%) – Oregon, Washington

With 15 of the 80 selections, California takes the crown as the dominant state from which the Blue Jays find their notable draft picks. Texas is an extremely close second with 14, and interestingly, the third highest is a tie between Florida and Canada with just 5. What’s even more intriguing is the positional distribution in the two headline states, which we’ll look further into shortly.

It’s natural to think that organizations seek different traits in pitchers and position players, so in addition to the overall, more general numbers above, the two groups have been separated to allow for a more detailed analysis. As they represented the larger sample, we’ll begin with the pitchers.

  • 30 right handers (60%), 20 left handers (40%)

  • 35 high school (70%), 10 four-year college (20%), 5 junior college (10%)

  • Primary breaking ball – curveball: 31 (65%), slider: 17 (35%), undefined: 2 (ignored for calculation)

  • Average height: 6 feet, 2 ¾ inches

    • 78% >= 6 feet, 2 inches

    • 90% >= 6 feet, 1 inch

    • 64% between 6 feet 2 inches and 6 feet 4 inches

  • Average velocity: 90.76 mph

    • 86% >= 89 mph

    • 52% >= 91 mph (“plus” velocity)

    • 72% between 89 mph and 92.9 mph

    • For pitchers with signing bonus >= $500,000: average velocity = 91.81 mph (53% >= 92 mph)

  • South: 15 (30%), Southwest: 11 (22%), Southeast: 10 (20%), Midwest: 6 (12%), Northeast: 4 (8%), Other: 2 (4%), Northwest: 2 (4%)

There’s a fair amount to digest there so we’ll dissect it in smaller pieces. The dominance of the high school pitcher isn’t shocking, but the right/left split is more noteworthy. According to the rosters on ESPN.com as of late April, of the 366 pitchers in the major leagues, 263 (72%) are right handed, and just 103 (28%) are left handed. I suspected the Blue Jays draft pick numbers would show a similar disparity. When thinking of pitchers on the farm over recent years, your mind likely jumps to Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, and the like, but lefties Daniel Norris, Sean Nolin, Matt Smoral, Justin Nicolino, and Jake Brentz are there, too.

The nearly two to one curveball-to-slider ratio stunned me as well, as for some reason I always thought of the Blue Jays as a fastball-slider-changeup organization. Reality, it appears, is tilted the opposite way. The list of curveballs in the draft classes is a long and impressive one, as of the eight names I just mentioned, six feature a curve as their primary breaking ball.

Pitcher height is topic of great discussion in the baseball community. Too short, and there are questions about your ability to create a downward plane and keep the ball in the park. Too tall, and the repeatability and consistency of your mechanics will be a focal point in your evaluations. While there are obviously exceptions (Stroman stands 5-foot-9; Smoral is nearly a foot taller at 6-foot-8), the Blue Jays clearly have a preferred height. The magic number looks like 6-foot-2, as 78% are that height or taller. There’s also a notable majority in the 6-foot-2 to 6-foot-4 range (64%), as you can see in the chart above.

Before delving into the velocity numbers in detail, a quick note about how the “average” was calculated – it’s really an average of averages. If, for example, at the time of his selection it’s reported that pitcher A throws 90-93 miles per hour and touches 95, I ignored the second aspect and instead focused on the range that the pitcher sits at comfortably. In this case, the number I’d use would be 91.5 miles per hour. If the numbers seem low, let this be a reminder that 70% of the pitchers are roughly 18 years old and have yet to grow into their frames. Despite regularly hitting the high-90s now, the velocity given to young Aaron Sanchez in this exercise was just 92.

The overall average velocity was 90.76 miles per hour and 86% of draft picks had fastballs that averaged 89 miles per hour or higher, but I feel those figures are far too broad to carry weight. The statistic that in my opinion is the most indicative of a draft strategy is the average velocity for pitchers with a signing bonus of $500,000 or more – 91.81 miles per hour. When Toronto spends big money, they’re spending it on pitchers who are already showing plus-calibre velocity. That figure approximates to a comfort range of 90-94 with the capability of touching the mid-90s, and that’s the type of velocity typically associated with top draft picks.

As a final note on the pitching angle, I mentioned the regional distribution by position was interesting. Texas – not the south region, just Texas – accounted for 12 of the 50 pitchers, a staggering 24% from one state. “Texan” is often tossed into scouting reports as a synonym for a pitcher who’s an asshole on the mound — a hoss. It certainly appears as if the Blue Jays have taken note.

The sample size for position players is distinctly smaller, but there are still plenty of observations to be made and patterns to be identified.

  • 1 catcher (3%), 9 middle infielders (30%), 7 corner infielders (23%), 7 center fielders (23%), 6 corner outfielders (20%)

    • 17 (56%) played an up the middle position (C, 2B, SS, CF)

  • 23 high school (76%), 5 four-year college (17%), 2 junior college (7%)

  • Average height: 6 feet, 1 inch

  • Primary tool – speed: 11 (37%), power: 10 (33%), bat: 6 (20%), arm: 3 (10%), fielding: 0 (0%)

  • Southwest: 10 (33%), South: 7 (23%), Other: 5 (17%), Southeast: 4 (13%), Midwest: 2 (7%), Northeast: 2 (7%), Northwest: 0 (0%)

Beginning with the positional assessment, the lack of notable catchers being drafted is both astonishing and unsurprising. For much of this front office’s tenure, catcher has been a position of abundance, not one of particular need. It was only a couple of years ago that J.P. Arencibia, Travis d’Arnaud, A.J. Jimenez, and Carlos Perez were all in the stable, so it was hard to justify spending a high pick on a catcher – where exactly would he play? Times have obviously changed, as only one of those four remains in the organization, and there are legitimate doubts – both because of his health and offensive development – as to whether or not he has a future as a starting catcher.

The first real indication that the “Blue Jays + Athletes = Love” stereotype has merit is that center field and shortstop – the two positions most often associated with athletes – were the two most common amongst draft picks, accounting for 43% of the total. Catcher and first base – the two positions most associated with base-cloggers – were the two most uncommon positions, accounting for just 13% of the total.

Much like the velocity chart, the tool classification likely requires some preliminary explanation. For each of the 30 prospects, I scoured the scouting reports and ranked their three best tools from 1 to 3. Primary is not necessarily synonymous with plus, it’s merely the draft pick’s best tool, whether that’s a 7, 6, or whatever on the scouting scale. The same can be said for the secondary and tertiary tools. It should also be mentioned that some prospects didn’t have a second or third tool worth noting.

The tool chart above is the second indication of the organization’s affinity for the smooth, athletic type. Over one third (37%) of prospects had speed as their calling card, and exactly one third (33%) were known primarily for the prodigious power. Bat (20%), arm (10%), and fielding (0%) were a distant third through fifth, which really speaks to the organization’s apparent philosophy. Theoretically, you can teach a player to improve his reads and actions on defence, and his approach at the plate, but you can’t teach a fast 60-yard dash time or lightning quick wrists. The thing is, for those strategies to work you have to actually execute in your coaching, development, and refinement of those baseball skills, something this franchise hasn’t seemed to have done a very good job of recently.

Unlike the pitchers where the South/Texas reigned supreme, it’s the Southwest region that has produced the most Blue Jays draft picks among position playes. Most notably, California, as 6 of the 30 (20%) selections hailed from the golden state. In fact, no other state in the U.S. has produced more than two. Canada, with Dalton Pompey and two later round picks, has been the second highest source of talent, with three.

Lastly, height is obviously far less important for position players, at least in the eyes of this organization, as the average is nearly two full inches shorter than that of the pitchers. Furthermore, while the two most frequent heights (6-foot and 6-foot-1) totalled 50%, to include the three most frequent heights you must extend the range from 5-foot-11 to 6-foot-4 due to a three-way tie for third most frequent. Hitters come in all shapes and sizes.

The 2014 Draft Class

Using the information identified above, I’ve created a rudimentary point system to analyze the 2014 draft class. Prospects will receive a point for each of the traits/trends that they meet, with, at least theoretically, the players garnering the most points being the closest to the Blue Jay Way archetype I’ve attempted to create. It would be unfair to lump pitchers and batters together given that we have more criteria for the former than the latter, so each grouping will be compared separately. Below is a breakdown of the point system.

Pitchers:

  • 1 point for being from high school (70% of ’10 to ‘13)

  • 1 point for featuring a curveball as primary breaking ball (65% of ’10 to ’13)

  • 1 point for standing between 6’2” and 6’4” (64% of ’10 to ’13)

  • 1 point for average fastball velocity >= 92 mph (53% of high-bonus picks in ’10 to ’13)

  • 1 point for playing in the South, Southwest, or Southeast regions (72% of ’10 to ’13)

  • 0.5 points for playing in Texas

Position Players

  • 1 point for being from high school (76% of ’10 to ’13)

  • 1 point for playing an up-the-middle position (56% of ’10 to ’13)

  • 1 point for having speed or power as primary tool (70% of ’10 to ’13)

  • 1 point for playing in the Southwest, South, or Other regions (56% of ’10 to ’13)

  • 0.5 points for playing in California

With this system, the prototype pitcher would receive 5.5 points, while their offensive counterpart would receive 4.5 points.

The next step in the exercise was comparing the measurable data and scouting information of the 2014 draft eligibles to the above point system in order to identify the prospects that most closely resemble the prototype. I assembled a list of players who, more or less, would be considered the current top 60 when combining the rankings published by Baseball America and MLB.com. Of the 60, 35 are pitchers, and that group was refined to seven names that scored 4.5 or more points – indicating they either met all five major criteria, or met four of the five and hailed from Texas. The 25 batters were narrowed down to five who scored 3.5 points or more – they met all four major criteria, or met three of the four and play ball in California. The twelve prospects are summarized in the two tables below:

Pitchers:

Name

Points

Position

School

State

Region

Height (in)

Avg. Velocity

Breaking Ball

B.A. Rank

MLB.com Rank

Brady Aiken

5

LHP

HS

CA

Southwest

75

93

Curve

1

1

Touki Toussaint

5

RHP

HS

FL

Southeast

74

92

Curve

13

16

Grant Holmes

5

RHP

HS

SC

Southeast

74

93.5

Curve

15

12

Dylan Cease

5

RHP

HS

GA

Southeast

74

93

Curve

N/A

68

Michael Kopech

4.5

RHP

HS

TX

South

76

91.5

Curve

42

45

Garrett Fulenchek

4.5

RHP

HS

TX

South

76

92

Slider

N/A

43

Zech Lemond

4.5

RHP

4 YR

TX

South

75

94

Curve

N/A

44

 

Position Players:

Name

Points

Position

School

State

Region

#1 Tool

B.A. Rank

MLB.com Rank

Alex Jackson

4.5

C

HS

CA

Southwest

Power

4

5

Jacob Gatewood

4.5

SS

HS

CA

Southwest

Power

16

21

Marcus Wilson

4.5

CF

HS

CA

Southwest

Speed

37

30

Derek
Hill

4.5

CF

HS

CA

Southwest

Speed

38

64

Ti’quan Forbes

4

SS

HS

MO

South

Speed

N/A

51

Obviously, by opening up the list of eligibles to anyone who ranked within a loose top-60 as opposed to a tight 5-15 range, you see a number of different tiers of prospects, from a potential number one overall pick down to players looking more like late second rounders. Just a few months ago, Brady Aiken was a pitcher who I thought was an excellent possibility for the Blue Jays, as I saw a lot of Daniel Norris-type upside in the lefty. Unfortunately for Toronto, he’s had one of the best springs around, and barring a devastating arm injury over the next month, is almost guaranteed a top-three selection. Alex Jackson, a catcher from California, ranks the second highest among the 12 prospects identified as strong fits. While not a realistic candidate for 1-1, most outlets consider him the best position player in the draft, and it sure sounds like he won’t escape the top six or seven. He carries plenty of leverage as a heavily recruited high school bat with a commitment to Oregon, however, and should his advisor float a bonus number that most teams in the top ten consider prohibitive causing a draft day slide, the Blue Jays and their two early first round picks could be in a position to pounce. With that being said, this is an unlikely scenario.

The trio of prospects that both score highly and have similar rankings to Toronto’s draft position(s) are right handers Touki Toussaint and Grant Holmes, and shortstop Jacob Gatewood. Toussaint and Holmes both scored 5 points out of a possible 5.5, with the only criteria they missed being their lack of Texan. Gatewood scored a perfect 4.5 and is a monstrous (6-foot-5) shortstop possessing 30 home run power potential, with the caveats being there are contact concerns and he profiles more like a third baseman. Given their strong scores and the organization’s propensity for high school pitchers, I would be shocked if June 5th came and went and one of Toussaint and Holmes wasn’t headlining the Blue Jays draft class, assuming of course they were available when the ninth overall pick was on the clock.

The remaining seven high-scoring prospects seem like reaches in the top half of the first round, barring a pre-draft agreement for a significantly below-slot signing bonus allowing the club the extra financial flexibility to steal an upper echelon talent who slides. Otherwise, they seem like better fits for the second round, where Toronto possesses the 50th overall pick. Two names from this group to keep tabs on: Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease. Kopech has the lowest average velocity of the group, but has touched 97 miles per hour during showcase events. His mechanics are complicated and might scare away some of the more conservative teams, but he only just turned 18 years old, has loads of projection on his lanky 6-foot-4 frame, and he seems criminally under-rated at this point. Cease is in a different boat, as he’s been out of action since late March with elbow soreness and is currently rehabbing in hopes of avoiding surgery. Cease was regularly touching the mid to high-90s prior to his injury, putting him in the discussion for the back half of the first round. I liken the situation to that of Clinton Hollon, a potential first round talent whom the Blue Jays took in the second round last June for a below-slot signing bonus after injury questions popped up.

There’s an awful lot to absorb here, but if the last four drafts are indicative of the organization’s way of thinking, there is definitely a “Blue Jay Way” at work behind the scenes. For fans with an interest in the amateur draft, the twelve names mentioned above should be of particular interest over the next four weeks, as they fit this model better than everyone else. When the draft is on the more immediate horizon, we’ll have a follow up detailing how the seasons of these “best fits” have played out, where they’re currently ranked within the draft class, and who the experts are slotting to Toronto in mocks during the final stretch. Happy draft season, folks.

(A tip of the cap to Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, and Perfect Game for a vast majority of the draft data and scouting information used for this article.)

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