chart (1)

Holy shit, would you look at that graph. Jays’ win expectancy was at 96.2% after Jose Bautista awesomely Larry Walker’d Billy Butler at first base on a hot shot single to right field in the top of the ninth. Almost like these sorts of things — especially when involving playoff odds, FYI — are kinda entirely dumbly meaningless. I mean, they’re probably not wrong, they’re just utterly useless things for anyone to bother clinging to. Hey, but nice formulas all the same, they just can’t predict that shitty Jose Reyes throw that should have ended it! And it was that throw — not, as some harping morons directing their ire towards John Gibbons would have you believe — that’s really the only reason the Jays lost today, technically. Gibbons did fine enough. He’d managed his club to a win if not for that one unfortunate play. But — and I recognize that this is far easier to say at the back end of nine straight wins — things like that happen. It’s OK. (Still sucks, though, obviously).

Shit, amazingly it actually looked like they were going to do it again and keep the streak going. In fact, I captured the moment when Edwin Encarnacion astonishingly put the Jays up for what should have been good, focusing my camera on his presence at the plate and pressing the button when James Shields released the ball, resulting in a bit of Instagram magic. Gold!

But I digress. This thing is already longer than what I wanted it to be, because I really wanted to established a precedent where I could totally mail in a post-game post every day, without having to think too much about what actually went on during the game. Just a graph and couple snarky or buoyant comments, basically. Because my intention is to keep these things going, either throughout the season, or at least throughout the stretch here before the Jays fail miserably and render themselves once again irrelevant — we’re allowed to talk about that possibility now that they’ve finally lost again, right? — and if we’re being honest, to do that they’re so going to have to really be mailed in.

So… yeah. This is your newfangled post-game post. Don’t expect nearly as much rambling in the future. (But also, if you’re like super into rambling, FYI, check out a transcript of what Alex Anthopoulos said to reporters about payroll bullshit today). (Also also: if they had a chart for umpire bullshit, just imagine the spike for that ridiculous hit-by-pitch that was entirely a strike, eh?).

 

Image/chart via FanGraphs.

Comments (102)

  1. Reyes short armed a throw.
    Big fuckin deal.

    We had our share of breaks in this streak including a walk off bunt and some opposition crushed balls that barely ended up foul.

    Even after 2 weeks of seeing the absolute mayhem this offense can cause does our confidence really hang this precariously?

    20 years without playoffs can turn Tony Robbins into Eeyore, but fuck people, be rational.
    This is a good team.
    A new streak starts in 16 hours.

  2. Bullshit is definitely the correct term for the payroll situation, especially if it effects the draft $ or the team’s ability to augment the roster should the opportunity arise.

    Also, somebody do this to the Ted statue please:
    http://youtu.be/wss_urnuB7o

  3. Unless you are into tinkering with the underlying analytics, who gives a fuck about game leverage after the game? The decision is binary at this point, this only serves the dumb masses to say hysterical things.

  4. You had to figure Reyes’ defense would cost the team eventually, but certainly not with his arm. It’s just a pity they wasted the offensive effort and Janssen on that game.

    On to tomorrow, then. Maybe Happ can continue his 3 game streak of decent pitching.

  5. As far as the payroll situation, it’s been clear since the news came out about the players deferring their salaries to try to sign Santana that money has been pretty tight. I would hope that would change a bit if they’re still in it in a month, but Rogers’ track record isn’t strong in this regard. Winning just has never been the top priority.

    For the next few months at least, we may have to make do with what we have and hope that’s enough. And it just might be if everyone stays reasonably healthy. That offense is incredible.

  6. The Jays were lucky to win on Wednesday what with Hendriks allowing tons of hard-hit balls that either stopped at the warning track or were nabbed by great defensive plays, not to mention the Jays only winning due to that ninth inning error.

    I guess it’s only fair that the team lose one they should’ve won today. Hell, even today the Jays were fortunate to be leading given how badly Dickey was getting knocked around.

    • The win against Tampa was really lucky, could’ve been blown out like 7-2 easily. Even last night if it wasn’t for that line drive douple play with the bases loaded the Jays probably lose handily. Just gotta forget about this one.

  7. This poster prefers the image of a post atop the post-game posts. Win-expectancy charts from here on out? Am I to believe we are now entering the post-post-game-post-with-a-post-picture era?

  8. The loss was definitely Gibbers fault. To wit:
    1) Why would he tell both Gose and Melky to get picked off 1st?
    2) Why would he tell Reyes to throw the ball in the dirt?
    3) Why would he tell EE he’d seen enough great scoops this year
    and that he did not want to see another?
    4) Why did he tell Angel Hernandez it was OK to call the game blindfolded?
    and
    most
    importantly
    5) Why did he tell the Blue Jays it was OK to let Stoeten in the stadium?
    Stupid ol’ Gibbers.

  9. You have to think sometime in the not too distant future, they’ll have to move Reyes off short.

    • I’m not going to get too wound up about one loss, errors happen. But Reyes isn’t a very good fielder.

  10. The win probability doesn’t seem “wrong” to me there at all, Stoeten. Pre-Reyes throw shows a 96% chance of winning, so it IS allowing a 4% chance of something freaky (i.e. a throwing error on a routine play) to happen that will cause a loss. If the chart had read 100% at that point, THEN it would be wrong, and you would have been right to shit all over the chart as you did in your post.

    The ‘team making playoffs’ chart is more an exercise in relativity and proper context. At this point, the Jays have a 65% chance vs. Yankees @ 45% (as per MLB.com) of making playoffs. This doesn’t mean that the Jays WILL make the playoffs, just that, at this snapshot point in time in the season, they have a better chance than the other AL East teams. Probability charts do not deal with absolutes, as you seem to suggest, until something absolute has occured (i.e. the end of the game with a decided result, or the clinching of a playoff spot).

  11. This post is a fine sight to see. It will help me through my mornings at work. However, I am slightly disappointed you used the never-Jay term “Larry Walker’d” and not the more-DJF-fitting “Orlando Merced’d”.

  12. That was a crazy game last night with a lot of “I can’t believe that just happened moments”. Anyone that expect the Jays to run the table for the remainder of the season needs to have their head check.

    Great game! Please, Stoeten, stay away from the Dome.

  13. This was my first game in a month. The shitty stadium effects, “waving” concrete floor and roof being closed somehow really made the hobo-sheik cologne smell really strong. Seeing Edwin rip the cover off the ball was the only non terrible part of the experience.

  14. I wish the Jays are a bit more careful and risk averse while on the bases with that fucking monstrous top of order set to hit. While it was a great pickoff move, that was just careless by the Jays to get picked off twice.

    Play it safe and let them drive you in with a 3-run HR. Stop fucking around on the bases.

  15. I come away from that AA interview fully expecting a trade.

    Now I’m wondering what he’s thinking.

    Is it infield depth?
    For starting pitching I do not think it would be anything obvious like Shark.
    I wonder who off the current roster might be gone.

    This is a fun time of year!

    Also, I believe the streak started the day after the last time Redmond coughed up a bunch of runs. So let’s go!

  16. Pinch-hitting Navarro for Thole = dumb.

    • Navarro is a better hitter

    • Debatable perhaps. Not dumb. Thole has been good. But in sss. There is nothing to say he wouldnt have been destroyed by holland…he’s pretty good. Just saying.

      • You’re a canard

      • No, dumb.

        Down by two with no one on, they needed a baserunner. OBP this year, in total and vs RHP:

        Thole 407/405
        Navarro 307/315

        In their career:
        Thole 326/338
        Navarro 305/312

        You’re getting a worse hitter and burning a player to boot. Dumb.

        • Small sample size numbers are pretty irrelevant. Over the last three seasons, Thole’s OBP of .297 in 548 PAs is 40 points lower than Navarro’s .337 in 505 PAs. And the gap in their wOBAs is more than 65 points: .337 to .261. Navarro is the bat you want in there at that time.

          • OBP is the relevant stat here, not wOBA, since you want somebody on base. As for your 3 years, why 3 years? Thole suffered a concussion in May 2012 and obviously took some time to get back to normal. But over his career, even including the miserable post-concussion season last year, he’s a better hitter than Navarro (who, by the way, can’t even run at the moment). And he’s been a much better hitter this year in, granted, a small sample.

            • Maybe Thole was tired, though…

            • Agreed, col.mustard.

              The jays seem to be overly confident in navarro’s bat in general. Gibby said clearly that he likes him as lind’s dh platoon partner, and continually uses him in the 5/6 slots, when really he should be a permanent fixture in the 9 hole.

  17. I might be going to the game tonight… so get ready for 2nd loss in a row

  18. I can’t believe there has been any negativity after that loss. Like, yes it was a shitty way to lose, but what it really boils down to? The Jays lost a game in May. They still have 107 left to play, so I sure as fuck hope Reyes and the rest of Murderers Row aren’t losing their minds like some people! We’ll start another streak tonight. As long as we win or tie the 4 game set all is well! Competitive baseball, that’s all I ask for. Last night was fucking awesome right up until the end. That RF-1B out by Jose was one of the craziest plays I’ve ever seen. Not only because it happened, but with the authority that he completed it and the shock on Eddie’s face when they got the out. How many more bombs will EE hit this weekend? Enjoy the ride!

    • Amen

    • Good post.

    • Believe it.

    • Even if the Jay lose 9 in a row, the season is not lost. ‘Tis only May. Relax. It was a crappy way to lose, but the Jays won it the night before in a similar fashion. You can’t put this loss on Gibby — you gotta let your “ace” go as deep as he can without completely blowing it out of the water.

      Just revel in the fact that the SN viewership will be going back down to the usual half million or so down from the 850 – 900K through this week.

      Watch for your cell phone bill increases in the mail.

  19. “And it was that throw — not, as some harping morons directing their ire towards John Gibbons would have you believe — that’s really the only reason the Jays lost today, technically.”

    WHAT!?

    First, I’m not here to blame Gibbons. But “technically” Jose was the “only” reason we lost?

    To use the vernacular of the author:

    Dumb.

    • There are plenty of things that could have happened over the course of the game to make the lead bigger so that play didn’t have the impact it ended up having. But yes, that is THE play that cost the Jays the game. There were two out in the ninth inning. Despite everything else that went wrong throughout the game, if Reyes makes a solid throw there, the way he pretty much always does, the game is over and the Jays win.

      • Thank you, Captain Obvious. But to say that “technically” it is the “only” reason we lost is, as I said, dumb.

        It’s like missing the playoffs by losing the last game of the season. Losing that game is not “the reason” you didn’t make the playoffs.

        • You’re welcome.

          You’re right, of course, but it’s a really simple concept: if Reyes makes that routine throw to first, the Jays win.

          • No, he’s right, it’s dumb. It may be the reason they didn’t win, but it isn’t the reason they lost. The game was lost in the 10th inning, not the ninth.

            If Lawrie catches the line drive off the bat of Infante, that’s probably a double play, and they win the game. The pitch was lousy, too. If Redmond hits that spot down and away, rather than hanging it, they don’t lose that game. Or at least, not on that pitch, in that way. If the last three batters aren’t summarily sat down, they don’t lose that game.

  20. That 9-3 Butler groundout was some N64 Ken Griffey Jr shit

  21. I’m glad the Jays management and coaching staff have finally figured out that you’re allowed to platoon. Of course Tolleson won’t be putting up a .973 OPS for long, and Lind won’t be hitting .340 by the end of the year, and Francsico can’t keep up the homer pace, but there’s nothing wrong with riding the hot hand and maximizing the value of the offense.

    I was dead set against Lawrie playing 2b, but he’s handled it well.

    • Agreed on all fronts. Though I wouldn’t say Lawrie has handled the razor well.

      Tolleson and Francisco have provided far more than adequate band-aids on the situation. But regression is all but inevitable (though I don’t think Lind will fall off too terribly compared to the other two).

      When the corrections do happen the hope is the team is still at or near the top of the division and AA is able to make some sort of move for reinforcements.

    • The hot hand effect isn’t a managerial tactic I’m a fan of. I’m not sure that you can say that a guy who’s hit well over the last month is likely to continue hitting well, and isn’t due to slow down, just the same way that a guy who’s in a slump is likely to continue that slump or is ‘due’ to break out of it.

      There’s probably some value from the ‘keep the guys happy’ perspective, where someone who’s hitting well is rewarded for strong play, but I’m not sure that saying ‘Francisco has hit a bunch of home runs lately, let’s put him in there because he’s bound to hit another one’ is a wise way to think about managing a ball club. If I flip a coin a bunch of times and get heads five times in a row, the likelihood of getting heads the sixth time is 50%. Similarly, Steve Tolleson probably doesn’t have a true talent level of a 167 wRC+, but it might be somewhat higher than his 85 wRC+.

      • I don’t think Gibby’s really going with the “hot hand” though. I think he’s just using players in situations where they’re most likely to succeed. Tolleson isn’t getting playing time because of his 167 wRC+; he’s getting it because of his career 132 wRC+ against lefties. There’s a reason he’s only batted 16 times against righties this year.

        I think Gibby learned from the way he used Adam Lind last year. Early in the season, Lind was hitting everything off of lefties, so the platoon kind of took a back seat. Lind’s numbers completely regressed over the next little while to the point where his numbers were as bad as ever. I don’t think Gibby will be as swayed by a small sample like that anymore.

    • The platoons are actually nothing new for gibbons. He platooned the hell out of the jays in his first stint as manager too.

      Catalanatto/johnson
      Hinske/hillenbrand
      Zaun/(molina/huckaby/phillips)

  22. As much as that lost stings… Its a great time for Blue Jay fans. In 162 games, there will be games given away and games won you had no business winning.

    I do hope we can bring in another starting pitcher and the troops stay healthy!

    Praying for October baseball!

  23. they had no business winning on wednesday, this was the baseball gods even-ing things out.. its all good people. ive never heard so much fire the manager talk after a team goes 9-1. ridiculous.

    • I was surprised too.
      Ther’s a bunch of fucked individuals out there.

    • Fire the manager talk… after a 9-game win streak ended on a loss ultimately caused by a defensive error? Did Gibby order Edwin not to catch that ball or something?

      I knew sports fans were crazy and bipolar, but damn.

    • Fifth best record in MLB, 1st in division by 2.5 games, 20-8 in May, just ended a nine game winning streak that included sweeps of the best team in the league and two division rivals.

      NOT GOOD ENOUGH!

  24. 9-1 over your last 10 is pretty fuckin good

  25. The thing that has me encouraged from last night game (forgetting the pervious 9 wins of course) is that despite the loss, the Jays still played their game, they mashed the ball. And mash they did against an elite SP.

    The Jays pitching is going to get lit up occasionally, that’s just how it is, we just need this group to be league average to reach the promised land.

    The defence, while decent overall is going to look bad the odd game now and then too, of which last night was no exception (not just the Reyes play, there was more).

    So despite the D and pitching having a bad game, the offence is so good that it almost didn’t matter.

    Which is why I think that they need to continue to add to the offence, instead of paying the huge premium on pitching. A lefty mashing RH platoon partner for Lind is still needed on this team.

    • There are plenty of instances where the defence has been outstanding.
      Even the top defensive players make errorrs.
      When was the last time time you saw a 9-3 putout?
      I think I last time I saw that was in a peewee rep game in Mississauga in ’92.

      • Jays committed just 1 error. Other than that there were some pretty damn good defensive plays.
        But I agree that this year they should add offence. Dealing for Samardzija, Price or Shields will cost too much and there’s pitching on the way in the minors.
        They’re on the verge of contention. Their big strength this year is offence. They should be riding that.

      • Mike Redmond got out at first against the A’s. When Rajai was with the A’s.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3uROKD5lS8

  26. When is the real Dickey going to show up? Or, maybe this IS the real Dickey – or maybe this is the REAL Dickey? Whatever. Go Jays!

    • There was definitely some batted-ball luck going the Royals way last night. I’ll take 7 K’s and 1 BB any day. As a knuckleballer, Dickey has always outpitched his peripherals, and this year we’re seeing the opposite. I feel like we’re going to start to see the ERA catch up over the next little while. To me, he seems really close right now.

      • It sure seemed like what Buck was harping on the whole game (“28 pitches in the 1st inning” !!!) was true. He seemed gassed after 4.

  27. James Shields looked great on that mound last night. I would enjoy seeing him pitch here again in 2014.

    • Wade Davis was also nails. Honestly haven’t seen him pitch since he was traded from Tampa but he was absolutely filthy.

      • Both of those 2 plus Holland were amazing. That pickoff move of Shields is devastating. We should be giving more credit to the Royals pitching.

      • Seeing both WAde Davis and JAmes Shields tell me we were facing the RAYS again!

  28. Dickey will never be 2012 Dickey again but that’s fine. He’s closer this year to 2010-11 Dickey than he was last year, aside from all the extra walks. His HR rates are cut in half from 2013. His K rates are up. He’s giving up the same amount of hits he’s basically averaged since his emergence as a legit starter in 2010.

    Also he’s been substantially better this year at home then away, which is very encouraging.

    He had an awful April, but his May by all tokens was exactly the kind of line you would expect from Dickey – ERA of 3.55, WHIP of 1.26, 3-1 record and that was still with a significant amount of walks higher than he’s typically given up.

    Most of his struggles this year have basically come in the 5th-7th innings. Fatigue? I mean we have to consider his age as well. But for most starts, Dickey’s been pretty solid up until he has hit that 5th inning wall. He will no doubt get stronger as the season goes on.

    Also check out Dickey’s worst games – a stinker against the Astros and Twins and then one against the Rays and Royals, all terrible to below average clubs. He’s been great to average against the Rangers, Yankees, Indians, Red Sox, O’s, A’s, And Pirates – all solid clubs.

    I think Dickey has to be viewed as more of a hybrid of his 2010-11 and 2013 years. Finishing the year with 15 wins, 2-4 WAR, an ERA between 3.75 to 4.15 sorta thing. Just like Buerhle, absolutely nothing wrong with that at all, plus he eats innings.

    • He’s in the AL EAST, he will only be an average Dick. If it’s Tim Wakefield expectancy, then so be it.

    • Dickey as a BJ: 46gs, 6.5ip/gs, 4.23era, 4.42fip, 4.24xfip, 4.14siera

      I’d expect similar going forward.

  29. If it wasn’t for the #edwing, where would we be? Long live EE!

    http://teespring.com/edwingparrotwalk

  30. Stroman scratched from Bison’s start. Manager said it’s not physical… Something brewing perhaps…

    • Bet they’re gonna line him up to take hendriks’ spot. Either he goes on monday for buffalo (jays’ offday) and takes the jays spot next saturday, or they just hold him out and start him for the jays on tuesday.

      My guess.

  31. Of course the formulas take into consideration the possibility of a shitty throw costing the Jays the game that’s the win probability wasn’t 100%, ffs. I did not expect DJF to have such shoddy understanding of probabilities.

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