greatsharkhunt

Jon Morosi dives into the Great Shark Hunt in a piece this afternoon at Fox Sports, groping around for answers as to who should blink first when it comes to the Jays’ and Cubs’ staredown over Jeff Samardzija. Much of it simply looks at where both the Jays and Samardzija are currently at, but there is one clear money quote:

The Cubs have evaluated the Jays’ farm system, and there are strong indications they would trade Samardzija to Toronto if the Jays offered Triple-A right-hander Aaron Sanchez, Double-A left-hander Daniel Norris, and Class-A center fielder Dalton Pompey.

The problem: The Jays maintain they won’t include Sanchez, Norris and Pompey in the same offer for Samardzija — or any other available player, including Tampa Bay ace David Price.

The Jays may be willing to trade one or two players from that group. But not all three. At least, not yet.

I get the sense that I maybe like and want Samardzija a little more than a lot of fans, but I’m with the Jays on not wanting to make that deal. At least certainly not yet.

Steep as it is, I’m not entirely sure I’m with them on not being willing to make that offer for David Price, though. Or Cole Hamels — who Morosi also says is on the club’s radar at the moment. I know Sanchez is a big fuckin’ deal, but for two seasons with this lineup with one of those guys as your number one? I can live with that. And maybe this is way convoluted thinking of me — especially given the nonlinear path a tonne of baseball prospects take — but Norris and Pompey sort of feel like found money.

Very strong prospects, yes, and Norris has the pre-draft pedigree and the fact that he’s getting top 100 list buzz of late — Keith Law noted him as one of several movers up his board (though he didn’t necessarily confirm his place in the top 100), while Jon Sickels wrote yesterday that Norris would be “somewhere” in his upcoming top 150 list — but his first year as a pro was pretty disastrous in terms of both command and mechanics. Is he “fixed” now? The results and the promotion to Double-A make it look like that could very well be the case, and I’m certainly not trying to suggest I think he’ll wither back into nothing at some point down the line, but for most of the two full years after he was drafted we’d kind of gotten used to the idea that Dan Norris was a good idea that didn’t seem like it was going to work out.

Should that make it easier to consider parting with him now that the results as a pro have started to match the excitement we had for him as an amateur — a guy who was considered a tough sign when drafted, and a consolation prize/fallback option when first-rounder Tyler Beede didn’t sign? Probably not. But, at least for me, it kind of does. Maybe? Almost? Especially since you worry that he could be the type of guy who might constantly have to battle to repeat his mechanics.

I have absolutely no idea if that’s actually a real concern, but there were certainly reports of the Jays’ trepidation over Ubaldo Jimenez this winter for that very reason, which might make the Jays a little more inclined to move him.

More importantly, I think you can kinda feel pretty good about what might be coming through the pipeline behind Norris by the start of 2016, when spots in a rotation based around the acquired frontline starter, Dickey-Buehrle-Stroman-Hutchison start to open up.

And Pompey? The Maple Cock Cheese Brigade sure is pulling for him, but so should all Jays fans, probably, as he’s been tearing up the High-A Florida State League this year, hitting for average, a little bit of power, taking walks, stealing bases, and playing centre field. It’s impressive stuff, and he really gives you some numbers to dream on, but… the 16th-rounder from 2010 is still a long way from the Majors, and very possibly at the absolute zenith of his value.

Moving him requires a similar kind of calculation to the one the Jays made last year, dealing away guys like Syndergaard and d’Arnaud. Obviously Pompey isn’t considered on their level in terms of prospect status, but he’s an interesting player — he and Norris were just today named to the roster for the All-Star Futures Game — but one who doesn’t fit the Jays’ current timeline very well. He may well be able to help a club in the outfield two or three seasons down the line, but he’s not going to replace potentially departing free agents Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus for 2015. His contributions at the big league level, if he ever even makes any, won’t be until after the Jays have found some kind of solution to go forward with.

In other words, unless they think he’s destined to be a legitimate star (or… OK, maybe even just an above average big leaguer), Pompey is a guy who serves the Jays very well right now as a trade piece. Add him to an offer of one of Sanchez or Norris and I think you have a lot of value going in the other direction, yet a palatable amount to surrender. All three, though? That’s a very tough sell unless you’re talking about a serious, serious get, and I’m just not sure Samardzija is that. (Are Hamels and Price? Yeah, probably). I continue to also not be so sure that there aren’t a number of other teams that could beat such an offer anyway — or at least that have enough prospect depth to not being as worried over it as the Jays ought to be over the blow that such a deal would… uh… deal to their system.

Whatever the case, that’s the state of the stalemate. Supposedly.

Hey, at least Stroman is clearly off the table now, right?

Comments (171)

  1. Marcus Stroman plays for the Toronto Blue Jays

    • Most definitely. Maybe I am still a little too in love after last night, but I think he might be the second coming of Pedro.

      • blasphemy until he starts striking out 10+ semi-regularly… Pedro was near the top of his position, ALL-TIME

  2. i’d be fine trading those three for david price

  3. I’d do that deal for Cole Hamels, not Samardzija. But the Phillies would probably have to throw in a fuckton of money for AA to be allowed to add him to the Jays.

    I wish Cole Hamels was never mentioned as a possibiltiy because now I really want the Jays to trade for him and it seems completely unlikely anything could get done.

    • The Jays could easily fit Hamels in. An extra 10 mil for the remainder of 2014 (which they were going to pay Ervin anyway) and then $23 mil/yr until 2018. It would cost them Melky, Colby, and Janssen in free agency, but I think it would be well worth it. A team with Hamels as the Ace and the tail end of EE, Reyes, & Bautista’s primes will be competitive for a couple more years. That’s a way better deal than 1 and 1/2 years of Price or Samardzija.

      • It would suck to lose both Melky and Colby. Even now it seems like the Jays will only have money for one of them anyways. Janssen? Meh, he’s really good but his age, shoulder, incoming closer premium all would scare me off.

      • Baseball’s funny. A guy is ace in his role so…replace him or trade him for somebody else. Or replace 3 guys who are nuts for one guy who is nuts.
        I realize the closer role is supposedly easy to fill but I really like having a guy like Janssen coming in and shutting the door 95% of the time.

        • Nobody doesn’t like it, but it’s a matter of cost vs. benefit.

          • So one really good starting pitcher costs you 3 top prospects and the ability to resign 2 of your starting OF and your premier closer?
            That sounds like a horrible deal to me. Unless it comes with a championship. I don’t you can trade for those though.
            I’ve read a lot of chatter in these parts for at least a couple of years about trading Janssen.
            I think some people forget what it’s like to watch your team when your closer/closers aren’t up to the task.

  4. Well said.

    I have a hard time imagining any deal where I wouldn’t wince at moving Stroman. Of course anyone is tradable but man……last night was just awesome.

    • Stroman’s killing it. As a starter (not like ERA is a great stat or anything, but still) his ERA is something like 2.30. And the way his breaking pitches move… holy shit. Guy’s going to be a beast in this rotation for a long time.

      If money were no object, adding Hamels would be terrific. He’d be under control for 5 more years, so you’d have a decent enough transition between Dickey-Buerhle and the next group of guys. I just don’t know how palatable it is to add Hamels if it means that we’d be saying good-bye to Rasmus and Cabrera – the idea of Gose and Pillar being everyday outfielders still scares me a lot.

  5. Honestly, I’m happy just letting the new prospects backfill the current guys as they come off the books and try and rebuild on the fly as this team ages.

    Yes, it would be great to add a pitcher, but really we only NEED someone we trust more than JA Happ in a big game, which consists of *checks database*… yup, pretty much everyone half decent.

    It’s easy to say that “championship teams don’t have (insert player X at position Y)” but look at the fucking Massholes who won last year?!? They were depending on JOHN FUCKING LACKEY for fucks sakes.

    If a deal falls into their laps then they’d might as well take it, but I worry about trading away the desperate scraps of our prospect depth just to load up even more for this one or two year window. Flags fly forever, but being a Marlin’s fan still kind of sucks.

  6. seems to be a clear question of time horizon for competition. The only player who will likely help the 2015 Jays in Sanchez. Even then, the thought of him being a reason for contention seems less likely than a Halladay-like shaky start.

    If the team wants to compete in the Bautista window, then none of those prospects should be untradeable (although would be nice if they had someone who’d give them one more year after this year)

  7. Why can’t we just get a rental?

    • “Why didn’t he just tag him?”

      So things we will never know the answer to.

    • I don’t really see the benefit to a rental besides, hopefully, a smaller acquisition cost.

      If the Jays just add a rental pitcher, they’ll be in the same boat come November, where they’re looking to add another starter in the offseason to go with Stroman, Hutchison, Buerhle and Dickey. (I’d be really surprised if Happ or Morrow’s options are picked up, and it doesn’t look like Sanchez or Nolin will be rotation shoe-ins next season or anything like that.)

      The same goes with adding a second or third baseman.

    • We can. We can get someone better, though, and get him for two years. So… it can very much work.

      • I suppose the next part of that question is would there be a free agent pitcher available next year that A) is good and B) would sign here? If you could get a solid rental, knowing/hoping that you could replace that rental with a comparable FA, wouldn’t that make SOME sense?

        • No, I think the FA aspect is pretty irrelevant to the equation because it’s just so ridiculously unknown.

          • True, and I know it’s a lifetime ago, but it is what the Jays did with signing Dave Stewart after the “rental” David Cone left.

            I don’t know if the FA crop for 2015 is pitcher heavy (it couldn’t be a worse market than last year) but if it *was,* I could see it being part of the calculation.

            Because really, everything here…from the performance of a new pitcher, to the future potential of prospects…is to a large degree an unknown, you know?

            • Completely different degrees of unknown, though. The Stewart/Cone thing was in an era where the Jays would be high up on a FA pitcher’s list. Now, not so much. And even if they do think they can sign someone, it will be at market prices. Much better to have a guy like Price (not happening, I know) relatively cost controlled, even if you lose him sooner. That just gives you budget flexibility, and prevents you from having to be overpaying for past performance at the back end of a big contract. Bigger still, though, is that they absolutely can’t count on signing someone. Pitchers don’t want to come here because, as we know, not only is there little history of recent success, they fear the environment is hurting their next payday. Can’t simply count on someone doing so for reasonable dollars — and if the dollars aren’t reasonable it’s hurting you elsewhere.

              • Yeah, I guess I’m just waxing nostalgic for the days when the Jays were a destination.

                That said, it’s not like the Jays really signed any big ticket free agent pitchers until Jack Morris either. It was for the most part internally developed hurlers. Guys like Candiotti were rentals too, but got them in the position where they LOOKED like they were on the cusp, and then Morris and Stewart followed.

                So maybe, a rental gets the Jays on the brink of a title, then a top pitcher decides to sign here because Toronto looks like a team that can get them a ring?

                • I know I’m being a big time optimist, but life’s more fun that way.

                • Maybe. But that’s as far as I’d go. Plus, the Jays were basically printing money once they moved into the Dome. They could outspend anyone for those guys, in addition to being able to offer them the chance to play for a winner, and in front of 50,000 fans every home game, in the most modern facility in the league.

                  Pretty far from the case now.

                  • Ah, but we can dream, Andrew. We can dream.

                    From a personal level, it would be annoying not to be able to get a ticket to a game wherever and whenever I wanted, but that would be a great problem to have.

                    • That’s all nice, but… uh… weren’t we talking about strategy heading into the trade deadline originally? “We all can dream” isn’t exactly sound business.

                    • Cole Hamels you make the deal and if they give you Utley as well. Than trade Sanchez/ Norris, Drabek/ Nolin Pompey / Goes and jiminez and Nay.

                      Next year you rationalize Happ and Morrow and even Santos- and that is equal salary wise to Hamels.

                      Give up Melky for Utley and salary wise you are increasing your salary by 3 million.

                      You are trading 2 triple AAA SP / RP probably, your top catching, 3rd base prospect and your fastest Increasing OF prospect or a 4 year controlled OF

                    • Smile, Andrew. We’re just having a laugh here.

  8. If the Jays took on Hamels salary (I know huge fucker of an if) what would we be looking at for a realistic prospect return to the Phillies to make that happen.

  9. Imagine Rogers opened up the books and allowed the jays to take on lee/Hamels AND Utley.

    God dam. I just peed a little.

    Too bad chase is holding on to his no trade. Id take Rollins too though.

    • That’s just cruel.

    • Utley would be awesome because his contract is pretty team-friendly. Agreed though, Rogers would have to install cold showers at the Dome to try to keep the boners down if they opened up the wallet and told AA to do what he needs to do to win.

  10. Any word on the batch of arms in low A and rookie ball that Prof. Parks and co. were so excited about a year back?

    Knowing the temperature of that situation would help me consider the current trade proposals.

    • This is based on me looking at boxscores/stats throughout the season as opposed to any kind of scouting, but:

      In Lansing, Labourt and Tirado were horrible and were sent down to Vancouver once their season started. DeJong, Robson and Cardona have been hit and miss, but nothing all that promising.

      That’s about it, I think. The short-season teams all just started, and other than Smoral striking out 8 in 3 innings last night, there’s nothing much going on in the first week or two of the season.

  11. Go for Hamels / Price instead.

  12. And nobody wonders what happened to Stroman in all this?
    Do the Cubs suddenly not value him as highly as Norris & Pompey? Can’t be service time issues.
    Is there actual convo with the Jays where AA shut down any Stroman talk, and this is an actual adjustment of the Cubs deal? Meaning there’s actual talk!

    On next week’s “As Morosi Turns…”

  13. Trading prospects is ALWAYS a good idea if your team wins it all. Jeff Kent guys. Who regrets it? No one. I would even ADD to that package if it meant Price & Zobrist. If they jays were to land those two players- could u really complain if you also added Alford, Nolin & whoeverthefuck? You wouldn’t if it worked. If Loaiza was amazing & the Jays went to the WS no one would ever breathe a word about Michael Young. I would way rather have a team that goes all in, fails & then blows it up, than a team that hovers around being competitive & hoping it all cones together.

  14. I’m with Mike Wilner, a guy with only a half a season of success in the NL Central, I would be skeptical in giving up Sanchez and/or Stroman. I probably would give Norris and Pompey (which I guess is the Jays counter offer to the Cubs ridiculous asking price). I think the Jays sent their scouting director over there too see what (if anything) has changed for Shark this year as opposed the rest of his career and if he could potentially have success in the AL East. Remember, they made that mistake with R.A. Dickey.

    • what mistake with RA Dickey?

    • Do you honestly think Dickey sucks because he’s in the AL East? That a move back to the NL East would all of a sudden make him a Cy Young winner again?

      • Yes. Dickey actually is quoted in saying “The difference between the AL and NL is about 2.00 on your ERA”. Obviously because you’re facing a pitcher who can’t hit as opposed to a DH. There’s a difference, no question.
        If i’m trading my prospects, I’d prefer a proven AL pitcher.

        • Or you just factor that into your evaluations and go from there.
          +2 to your ERA is absurdly high. There’s plenty of research online about the actual impact that moving from the AL to the NL has and it’s not that high.

          “Overall, a pitcher moving from the AL to the NL would see his ERA drop by about 0.41 points”
          http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-statistical-impact-of-switching-leagues-for-pitchers/

          Either way, you just keep it in mind when looking at a guys numbers.

          Smarzigazig-ahs ERA (if ERA is still your bag) is currently 2.53. I dunno about you but I’m cool with him coming here and putting up a 2.94

        • There alot of articles with lots of research done, (fangraphs comes to mind) and the difference is rather small. Really it comes down to if you’re a good pitcher in the NL, you’re gonna be good in the AL.

          The difference is nowhere as much as 2.00 ERA that’s ridiculous.

        • Dumb.

    • Dickey has seen his ERA increase by over 1 pt in the AL for 2 years now so yeah big difference.

      AL has better hitters, more power hitters, DH, smaller ball parks.

  15. “Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late.” – Branch Rickey

  16. Well the price seems to be falling anyway.

    That offer is a HELL of a lot more palatable than Sanchez/Stromon + Hutch.

  17. [Not happening, champ]

  18. At some point soon we’re gonna have to give up someone we love in order to take this team to the next level. I don’t see any way around it. We can’t have our cake and eat it too. We *must* have another #1 or #2 starter. We’ll have to pay through the nose for it. But I’d rather that than stick with what we’ve got. Who knows when the East will be this wide-open again and who knows when this team will all be clicking along at the same time again. This is basically the same team as last year. And they were a mess last year.

    So, yeah, losing guys we prize is gonna hurt like hell. Not losing them may well hurt even more.

    • No we absolutely *must* not. It would help, yes.

      • You know Stoeten I was one of the people who preached standing pat this past off-season instead of paying too much for underwhelming starters. But I look at the starters we have, and I have to say I don’t think they are nearly good enough to go the whole season and then into the playoffs. I know at some point Morrow will come back but who knows what we’ll get from him. And the younger ones are on innings-counts, aren’t they?. I think a ‘must’ comes into it right now!

        • I have no idea what you were on about this winter.

          Again, no, it’s not must at all. They’re eight games over .500 right now without that “must.”

          • I remember when they ended up something like 13 games above .500. And finished 3rd. Ricciardi was always going on about that at the State of the Franchise. ‘We’ve had five winning seasons…’ But we always finished 3rd. Until we finished 4th.

            As of right now we are a tenuous 1.5 games ahead of the AL East.

            • Yes, I can read the standings. Not debating that. Debating semantics and your usage of “must.” No, it is not a “must” situation. They could very conceivably be fine without one. Ergo, it is not a situation where they “must” do anything.

    • It’s not basically the same team as last year.

  19. NAME 1 NL PITCHER THAT HAS EVER PITCHED BETTER IN THE AL FOR THE BLUEJAYS??????

    90% of NL pitchers fail in the AL so don’t even bother

    • AJ Burnett.

      David Cone.

      • you bothered to answer…?

      • [Dumb troll stuff].

        • Stop looking at ERA, champ. Yes, ERA almost always goes up when you switch leagues and face harder lineups. That is obvious. It doesn’t mean someone has magically become a “worse” pitcher. They pitch just as well, but the lineups are harder. We can use our brains to overcome this difference, as well as newfangled stats that let us see league and park adjusted numbers and things like that. They keep us from making the kind of dumbass troll arguments you’d be making on here if only you were allowed to any longer.

          Good riddance.

    • The AL east is terrifying this year. sure to kill any NL pitchers chances immediately.

      I mean the Rays, Red Sox and Yanks combined have 2 players top 30 in the AL in OPS.

      A real murderers row

  20. The Cubs got more than the proposed Sanchez/Norris/Pompey package for half a season of Garza.

    And remember when the “rumoured asking price” for Dickey was Gose and JPA?

    Sorry but I think we’re dreaming. Cubs and Rays are getting a lot more than we are willing to give.

    Jason Hammel? Welcome to Toronto!!!

  21. I would trade Sanchez and Pompey before Norris. Sanchez has better stuff but he’s never shown great command. Norris figured something out in the 2nd half of last year and has actually gotten results. Sanchez never had the k:bb numbers Norris is showing right now.

  22. Yeah

    and three years ago if we said we were going to send Ricky Romero, Anthony Gose and Kyle Drabek for a starting pitching, they would be people saying we were throwing away the future.

    Send those kids away.

    • And 15 years ago we would have said the same about Halladay, Carpenter and Escobar. And 20 years ago we would have said it about Delgado, Green and Stewart.
      And 25 years ago we would have said it about Olerud, Hentgen and Guzman.

      Maybe the options available are a bit more complicate than “Stand pat because we have to build from within” and “Sell the farm because they’re just prospects.”

  23. I am very happy to see Stroman’s name disappear from the conversation.

    Also agree with Stoeten on the “found money” thinking. I always sort of looked at Marisnick and Alverez in that way.

    Since we’re playing wish list, my order is: 1) Hamels, 2) Price and 3) Shark.

    Also think pulling the trigger sooner rather than later is a good idea. Don’t wait for the market to take shape AA, get yours first!

    • found money is still money

      • Found money is easier to part with though and typically has very little invested in it.

        • I think it depends on the team’s evaluation of the individual player. Nestor Molina was pretty clearly “found money” and I’m assuming the Jays decided that the season he had just put together was the pinnacle of his value, so they made what looks like a very smart move to trade him. They may see Norris differently (I would actually assume they do, since they drafted him based on his sky-high potential) and decide that what he’s shown so far is closer to what he can actually be as he advances.

  24. No question, David Price would be the ideal target (along with Zobrist). But the acquisition cost could be substantial and might include an artificial tax as the Rays are trading within the same division. Word on MBLTR is that the Rays are eager to pull the trigger soon. Stay tuned.

    I sort of like the Shark and wouldn’t hesitate giving up one of Sanchez or Norris in a package. But man. Meeting the Cubs demands and parting with all 3 is fucking steep.

    Hamels would require a big jump in payroll and would likely cost less in terms of prospects. Not renewing Morrow and Happ would alleviate that I suppose.

    Dunno man, I like the idea of having another power righty in the rotation if we can’t get Price.

    • Not sure the AL East tax is so relevant re: Price

      This season is lost for them, so really, if you’re the Rays you know you’ll have to face him for one season. After that, he’s a FA and anything could happen. The Jays meanwhile have dealt 3 pieces that could bite them in the ass for 6+ seasons apiece.

  25. Getting Price and Zobrist would be lovely. But you’re right. The Rays may be loath to deal with the same division and the price would be really high. But those two could solve a lot of our problems right now.

  26. Not that I know a damn thing about these prospects other than what we all read – but hell yeah I’d trade Sanchez, Norris and Pompey for Price or Cole Hamels if that’s even a remote possibility. It’s SO hard to acquire an ace… To be able to do that without giving up Hutchinson, Stroman or even a guy like Lawrie would be huge.

    The Shark is a tough one. Just doesn’t have that same track record. Tough to give up the farm for him.

  27. Would be ecstatic if David Price and Ben Zobrist trade happens. The price will be steep, but if it can be done with the major league roster intact, then it will be a coup, imo.

  28. Is it just me or the guy I would want to keep the most out of the three is Pompey..

    Not for “Maple Dick” reasons either…

    With Rasmus likely gone, Id rather Gose as a short term solution in 2015 rather than any hopes of Long term solution; Ive never been a Gose fan.

    BUT….If we could get Hamels…. I am totally ok with Gose in CF until infinity lol

    • That assumes Pompey is just going to take off from here and keep being great at every level and get to the big leagues relatively quickly. And it also means going with Gose and his .315 OBP at AAA for a big chunk of your win-now window with Bautista/EE/Buehrle etc. If someone values him and has something you need that helps you now and in the next year or two, there’s way too much risk to NOT trade Pompey, really.

  29. I’m going to repeat this because it’s important
    It’s extremely easy to find out what the ACTUAL impact of moving from the AL to NL has been for pitchers historically. Here’s just one of DOZENS of articles i found within seconds of looking: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-statistical-impact-of-switching-leagues-for-pitchers/

    Welcome to the internet bitches. Where shitty ass arguments that aren’t at all substantiated really can’t hold up.

  30. The fact is any time you’re trading prospects you’re far more likely to be trading nothing rather than something. Still its a gamble because even though more prospects flame out than become good players l- we’ll be killing ourselves around here if they trade Sanchez away for the Shark and he goes on to become the next big power arm in MLB.

    Flags fly forever – so if they go for it I’m not going to kill them. But there is a reason why teams like the Cards seem to have a never ending pipeline of pitchers in their system (hint: its because they keep them after they draft them).

    • It’s more than just that, but that’s a reasonable enough point. However, the Jays have drafted extremely pitching-heavy since AA took over, with the thinking exactly being that at some point they’ll be trading them. In theory it will get easier as the fruits of his early drafts and international signing periods start getting closer to the majors, so… it’s not like they’re as much the anti Cardinals in this regard as it may seem.

  31. I’d be all aboard moving those three for Hamels — he is in a different category than the shark and price. He’s frankly just a shitload better than sharky, and is on a reasonable contract at 22.5 per year through 2019 (age 35 season). We’d be counting our blessings if sanchez put up 2, heck even one, better season than Hamels over the life of that contract.

    Price figures to need an extension exceeding Hamels current deal to stay past 2015 with the Jays. While still getting in done according to fip-heads, Price is figuring out how to be a reduced velo version of himself. Time will tell.

    • Of course, its at best a 30-70 proposition Hamels even gets moved, and certainly not too far in advance of july 31. Teams would be lining up too

    • Can’t really factor a price extension in, though. You’re trading for two years of him at very good cost, then you’re off the hook. Hamels you’re not off the hook for a long time, and he’s taking up a lot of budget. If they both played in the NL, it would be Price easy. Hamels intrigues now, though, because I just don’t see an intra-division deal happening.

      • I’m actually surprised that the Phillies would be shopping Cole Hamels. That would be great, but there a small voice that thinks it’s a rumour that didn’t originate from anyone with contact with the Amaro.

      • True, but if the cost in prospects is equal between Price and Hamels … 3.5 seasons from the latter vs 1.5 from the former should be part of the consideration, no? The Jays don’t deal the capital they did for Dickey if they weren’t going to be able to extend him, right?

        On Price being superior to Hamels if he was in the NL? I don’t know, maybe and maybe not. There are too many variables at play. Either would be great adds, though for different reasons I suspect neither will end up in TO this summer.

    • Exactly…. Hamels has proven that he can flat out fucking pitch. He’s not a fluke on a hot streak, it’s almost like he comes with a guarantee on the box. Sure he pitches in the NL but he’s been very good in interleague play and also good in the post season. I would love to see a guy come in that can toe the rubber and have the guys on the other end know theyre dealing with one of the game’s best pitchers.

  32. Will they take Gose and Big Juan?

  33. I find it hard to believe that in 3 years, the jays are going to have a better lineup than they do right now. IF someone can’t help you while you have your core, send them for packing for someone who can.

    • Exactly. Replacing jbats and EE will be a difficult proposition. The team needs to go all in while these two guys are performing.

  34. Why didn’t we just sign garza?

    • Because he’s not great and has a brutal medical history regarding his arm?

      • Was I talking to you? Funny how you keep replying to people who aren’t talking to you.

        • You kind of commented on a post that he wrote, so… it would probably be fair to assume that you were talking to him.

        • You weren’t talking to anybody. When you don’t hit “reply” on someone else’s comment, you start a new comment string (a “comment” about the post I wrote, theoretically — this isn’t a messageboard, no matter how hard you close your eyes and wish), inviting other people to comment on your comment.

          Funny, though, how you think I’d give a shit about your little tough guy posture here.

    • To continue the Garza thing, I didn’t want him because of the injury risk, given that we were going to trot out Morrow. One fragile starter is enough for me.

  35. I would happily give up all three for Price, but the fact that I feel that way suggests to me that Tampa Bay would not do it. Big time trades that actually get done always seem more painful for both sides. (And that is an entirely unsupportable anecdotal statement.)

    But for someone who would excitedly rhyme off the Jays rotation after they acquired Cone, this rotation with the addition of Price? No more Spankwire for me! I’ll just close my eyes and picture that rotation.

  36. Jays would be crazy to include Norris AND sanchez in a deal for shark. Pompey? Sure, who gives a fuck. Seems like a sell high type of prospect that turns into a 4th OF in the majors. Jimenez? Sure. I’d offer sanchez/norris, pompey, and jimenez and tell the cubs to take it or leave it. Maybe throw in a dwight smith jr instead of pompey or jimenez. Maybe even DJ Davis. But sanchez and norris? Fuck no.

    • Why?

      • Can’t give up your two best pitching prospects in the same deal for a rental like that. If Shark had 3 years left, I’d strongly consider. If shark leaves,you need your system to be able to replace him. Without Sanchez, the sytsem is barren of top flight pitching prospects. Osuna probably wont be ready till 2017.

        • You’d have two open rotation spots in Spring 2016, would have two years to find guys, and a shit-tonne of money off the books with Buehrle and Samardzija presumably, and a team that’s aging and probably not good enough anyway. Oh, and you get to have Samardzija for two years instead of waiting for guys who won’t contribute during the current window and may not pan out anyway.

          Hardly so simple.

    • I agree somewhat, if the Jays are set on Shark then it would be Sanchez OR Norris, not both by any means. He’s not going to extend with the Jays and In my opinion he is not the ace type guy to lead the Jays to the post season. Not sure why I feel this way but I just don’t see it. I would MUCH prefer a pitcher with some team control and some post season experience over a guy that will walk at the end of the year that’s never even been in a post season run.

      • And you base that, of course, on absolutely nothing.

        • I base his not extending in Toronto on the massive amount of analysts, writers and baseball insiders that have said straight up that a Samardzija extension in Toronto is very close to impossible given the Jays 5 yr limit rule. The opinion I have on his not being an ace or the type of pitcher to lead them to the post season I noted very clearly that I wasn’t sure why I felt such but one could suggest his lack of being on any kind of 1st place team, never being in a pennant race, never pitching in the post season and of course the fact that his stats prior to this season are very underwhelming. Does that suffice for you big fella?

          • I haven’t seen a single analyst who has said that, and if they did, they’d be dumbly regurgitating 5 year limit nonsense. We’re allowed to use our brains, fortunately.

            As for the stuff about him not being an ace, one could not suggest any of those things without being absolutely ridiculous. And no, his stats prior to this year aren’t underwhelming.

            • I’m not sure that you are allowed to invoke “we can use our brain” arguments when yours is clearly being delusional. History with the present regime clearly indicates that they will refuse to do what it takes to extend or sign Price or Samardzija. If they didn’t see the value in the Greinke, Darvish, Tanaka, deals, just to name a few, why would you believe they’ll see the value in free agent deals or extensions for other pitchers in similar situations?

              The Jays refuse to “overpay” anybody on a free agent deal, despite their willingness to take on the terrible back ends of those same deals at the even higher cost of prospect losses. We should get ready for the fact that if they traded for Samardzija or Price, it would only be for an 18 month rental.

  37. If we make it to the playoffs, a horse will give us a decent chance to go all the way. Guys like Carp, Halladay, Price, Lee, or Verlander in their prime could potentially give you three starts in a seven game series. If we are get that type of pitcher for that cost pitch the shit out of them for the next year and a half.

    Given Hutch and Stroman’s inning limits or lack there of ( who knows at this point) making a move is almost a must to have a realistic chance of going anywhere in the playoffs.

    We have bautista and EE at stupid low prices lets take advantage of that. I am sick of having MVP type players and Cy Young caliber pitchers on teams with no chance of post season play.

    • It’s absolutely not. But it would help.

      • I said almost. You have to figure if they stand pat and it remains tight then Hutch and Stroman will have to be given more innings than the Jays had planned which could lead to a significant injury. That could be worse than the sting of losing some good prospects in a trade, in which you would presumably have a damn good pitcher to throw in the rotation to offset the dependence on the two kids.

        If we had an ownership that we knew would keep us in the top 10 in payroll, i would be more reluctant to trade away the prospects, does that make sense?

        • Which is why they’re doing the spot start thing. Injury stuff is overblown — they blow out when they blow out, not necessarily because of over use over a season (more overuse in game, from what I gather (though don’t quote me on that)).

          • I know we are in the top ten but I do not have faith in us staying there, the Jays have made me a little pessimistic since the glory years I guess. All else being equal I love seeing one of “our” kids coming up and giving us cheap innings so we can put money into the team where the farm can’t supply that player, but i didn’t think we would be in contention more in terms of the rest of the AL east not playing to preseason expectations.

            Making the kids pitch a full slate with God willing playoffs is still a big risk IMO. Is it Verduci or something that has a yearly thing on SI about the” Verducci Effect”. Do you take a chance of riding a young kid in the majors or overpay in terms of kids who have not made it yet or ever? Not an easy answer, made even harder by a trade not ensuring the playoffs will happen.

            • Verducci Effect is pretty debunked.

              Not great to abuse them, but that’s avoidable. Hutch pitched 150 innings in the year before TJ. Stroman pitched almost 160 last year, and that doesn’t count his time in extended spring training during his suspension.

              It’s not as big a deal as it can be made out to be.

  38. The more I think about whether Price goes within the ALE (mmmm, ale), the more I realize it’s really about 2015.

    Because in reality, that is the only time they’d care about facing him. This year is already a wash.

    If a pitcher pitches a whole season (30+ starts), they face teams in their own division 4-5 times.

    So if Price were to dominate TB in 2015 as an opposing pitcher in the ALE, it would cost them 5 games max. OK, that’s a lot. But what are the odds of that? Probably more like 2-3 wins.

    If you are the Rays, is that a reason not to trade him if everything else lines up right?

    I might be more concerned as the Jays if I give up a strong pitcher I end up facing 4-5 times for the next 4-5 seasons.

    • Because the other 25+ times Price is starting in 2015 for a team other than the Rays isn’t helping them?

      • Wait, what?

        I was speaking to why he couldn’t go to another AL East team?

        Plus isn’t he a FA after 2015?

        • Sorry, meant 2015 (and changed it).

          Again, though: the other 25+ starts he makes against teams that aren’t Tampa still very much helps his new team, which isn’t Tampa, but plays in the AL East, which Tampa also does. It’s a bad idea for the Rays, unless you’re suggesting they’re punting on 2015 too.

  39. I’d trade all three for Hamels and Price. Didn’t think that was on the table, though.

  40. Enough trade speculation talk, why is no one talking about the resurgence of one Mister Tony Gose???

    :P

    • Resurgence? That would imply that Gose was once upon a time very good and had things fall off a bit. I would call it Gose finally starting to have an impact. This is his time, his moment. If he wants the CF job, he had the wide open door when Rasmus got hurt and he has taken the opportunity and run with it. His high ceiling potential is starting to show and that makes the Rasmus contract situation a lot easier to manage for AA. I say offer Rasmus a qualifier, have him turn it down, let him walk, put Gose in CF full time next season and spend the money they don’t have to spend on Rasmus on pitching.

  41. side note, any updates on their two first rounders?
    one good draft makes up for trading away a bunch of guys

  42. Fuck, I can’t believe we’re actually talking about a realistic chance of making the playoffs at the end of June. This is fucking amazing…

  43. Not a lot of talk on the Rangers front here. Sure they are only “testing” the market for their core players but I can imagine AA has picked up the phone to find out. The Jays don’t HAVE to focus on a 2B option, they could focus on Beltre/Darvish which would be taking on a lot of dollars but the dollars wouldn’t be the issue. There’s also the possibility of Andrus rather than Beltre. So far in his tenure AA has been a guy to go off the grid so I suppose the Rangers would be an option for him.

    Another name not getting mentioned a lot is Aaron Hill. I am sure they wouldn’t have to pay dearly for his services and he does love the city so with Arizona being so damn crappy, you would think his name would be getting tossed around some more.

    Pitching wise, I am not entirely sure why the hell so many people are so hell bent on a rental pitcher over someone with a contract that goes past this/next season. I mean it’s not like there’s a whole bunch of rookie phenoms knocking at the door to step into the rotation next season so why not aim for a guy like Hamels over Price. Sure his contract is massive but who gives a shit, dude can pitch and he has a style of pitching that would have a longer lasting effectiveness being that he’s not a power pitcher and wouldn’t have as many issues when his velocity starts to fall a bit in a couple years. Another pitcher to keep in mind might be someone like Chris Sale? He’s an ace on a team thats way back in the standings.

    I guess my thoughts are that there’s a lot of options for AA and that can make the market a tiny bit softer. I am not sold on Shark, I would fully prefer a guy with team control come back in return or a guaranteed extension be in place if the Jays are going to give up a pile of prospects.

    • Darvish? Sale?

      Let’s not get too carried way here…

      • You’re talking to Captain Carried Away, you realize.

        • Darvish has been rumoured to be one of the players that the Rangers are trying to gather interest on. How am I getting carried away by mentioning something that was said by Stoeten’s buddies at MLBTR today/yesterday? Sure Sale might be a stretch but when I mentioned Hamel’s name a month or so ago, I got the same “are you crazy?” response from a bunch of people so how is this that much different?

          Stoeten, I think you might need more hugs in your life man, maybe a good woman (or man, I don’t judge). Maybe go and get some ice cream or something.

          • Remember when you called the Jays doomed and fucked and said they had to be sellers and then two hours later, after they came back from down 8-0, you were right back cheerleading again?

            Just try not being ridiculous for a change.

            • Hey man,,, as I said before, I am a passionate fan and at times I noted that I can be a little irrational in my thinking. As I also mentioned, you take 20+ years without anything much to cheer about and especially the last 10 years of dismal teams that walked the .500 line of mediocrity or perhaps last year’s debacle that had your dick in about 60 knots like the rest of us and you get a lot of fans on edge with the whole first place thing this season.

              • And yet most everybody else handles it pretty reasonably.

                • Really? Well I can go back and find a ton of irrational shit you have posted out of frustration after Jays losses, especially last season so don’t be a hypocrite. Anyways, Im not arguing with you anymore, let’s watch the game.

  44. No dice

  45. Those three prospects for a guy from another losing organization, who is no better than a 3 in a post-season rotation, and who would likely get lit pitching a third of his game’s in the AL East. Ya right…wake the fuck up, y’all.

  46. Talking about the wrong, likely mostly fantasy targets here insofar as if jays would acquire them due to large long term contracts they likely aren’t willing to take on and also why would phillies want to trade Hamels or rangers darvish. These guys are core pieces they can build their teams around for years to come.

    Ian Kennedy from padres. Try to get street too. Maybe even Seth smith. Romero and cash make it no payroll increase.

    Daniel Murphy from mets if he can be pried away although would think its a high acquisition cost since he could be core piece for mets.

    Bastrdo and Rollins from phillies may be more likely, move Reyes to second. Maybe try for marlon Byrd too who could replace Cabrera next year as well. Morrow and can back.

    Biggest obstacle is payroll. If that is the case overpay in Less developed prospects. Now is the time this window of contention is real and the next few years. Trade nobody who will contribute this year and next in mlb (including Sanchez) outside of mediocre guys like Redmond drabek Jenkins goins to fill other team rosters. Norris Pompey nay dean smoral Barretto Osuna etc. Empty the lower level farms if that what it takes and add a sp 2 rp a 2b and an of. None have to be huge stars but if you get solid upgrades across the diamond would greatly improve the team. Let other buyers bid up for stars and do a quick slight overpay for second tier players before the bidding war is over.

  47. What is the difference between Happ & the Shark for around 1/3rd of the season?

    1 win? Maybe 2?

    The team is playing well enough and everybody else in the division has been treading water at best all season.

    The Jays are probably better off making an under the radar move (a less sexy way of upgrading on Happ or finding a 2nd baseman above replacement level).

    Sanchez, Norris & Pompey may very well be 3 of the top 50-100 prospects in the game on midseason lists.

    That’s around what the Phillies paid to get Halladay and that included a below market contract extension.

    I’d be mildly surprised if any team gives that up for the Shark.

    • According to Fangraphs, Happ has been worth a pathetic 0.1 WAR this season. This guy does not belong in the rotation of a team that is serious about contending.

      The Jays absolutely need another starting pitcher, I don’t understand the argument that they don’t. Buehrle is bound to regress, Dickey is average, Hutchison is shaky both at home and seems to need extra rest, Stroman is a rookie, Happ is replacement-level and who knows if Morrow will pitch again.

      I would happily trade the Sanchez/Norris/Pompey package for Price or Hamels. I’d happily deal any two of them for Samardzija.

  48. the cubs GM must be walking with a heavy head nowadays with all those rocks in his head. If AA was going to really overpay for someone it should be in a Price/ Zobrist blockbuster, not for Shitardzija.

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