chart (9)

Another one for the loss column. And so reasonable people will be reasonable about it, and garbage clowns will be garbage clowns. Whatever.

Comments (244)

  1. Not trying to be a troll, but I think this blog minimizes the importance of losses. I mean, yes, one loss isn’t crushing, however they are occurring more frequently than other teams who are in a similar position in the standings. After each one, we say: “oh, don’t worry, it’s fine” or “look at these idiots complaining about some losses” but combined, they are causing the season to slip away. Worse still, it’s been slipping away slowly since June 6 and we continue to justify it and keep our head up.

    Post Season Probability on June 6: 86%
    Post Season Probability on July 30: 61%
    Post Season Probability on Aug 11: 20%

    At what point do we go: “fuck, we just let the best chance we had slip away, and it’s not likely to come back”. I feel like anyone who takes this view is berated on this board as a bad fan or something, when in reality it’s a perfectly logical and factual view. When is this view OK to be accepted and you’re no longer a “garbage clown”.

    July 30, 1 day before the trade deadline, the gap between Jays and Orioles in terms of playoff probability was just 14%. That would have been the time to hit the gas, instead it’s now 72%. Ouch. But still, anyone who voices their concern at the state of the team (over a longer period of time, rather than game to game reaction) is a garbage troll.

    I’m not happy.

    • If people didn’t defend the doomsayer point of view illogically and idiotically (trolls don’t defend any point of view, they just troll) they probably wouldn’t be berated.

      Of course things haven’t gotten better, but nothing is out of reach as of yet. I’ve voiced concern about the rotation continuing to perform and stay healthy. The offense is streaky as fuck. But why don’t I say they’re done and stop watching? Because baseball is a funny game. The Jays could go on a tear starting tomorrow and be within a game of the division just like that. All of this surprising health, performance from unexpected sources, and treading water through the injuries that have taken place (along with under-performance in the division) has put the Jays in a position where the playoffs is still more attainable than it has been in a long time. There is still plenty of reason to “keep our head(s) up”

      Also, the games determine the percentages, the percentages don’t determine the games

    • Shit, I didn’t realize it had gotten that dire. I blame the fuckin Royals.

    • Yes, they squandered a big lead, but it’s not a logical or factual view that their best chance is “not likely to come back” at all, unless you talk in the silliness that is all those probabilities. Let’s toss out that stuff, though — or let’s at least acknowledge that there’s still a very strong chance that in late September they’ll have a probability as high as they did on June 6th. Almost nobody leads wire-to-wire, and nobody realistic would have ever thought that the lead they built wouldn’t have been clawed back anyway. The teams in this division are really, really close, talent wise. And the thing is, while the probabilities are fun (I guess?), they’re pretty meaningless. We’re seeing now how much that 86% may have meant, aren’t we? We saw in 2012, when the A’s were at 0% on June 13th and 1% on July 1st and won the AL West how much meaning that had, too.

      So, let’s construct our view around what’s concrete. And while, yes, the Jays haven’t played well if you arbitrarily use their 3-8 run of late to define it, what they “are” and where they are all depends on what your endpoint is. The stretch before that, from out of the All-Star break, they were 11-3. Add more games and the picture looks worse — more still and it looks better. The reality is, they’re 6.5 back of the Orioles, and they have six games left against them. And they’re two back of the teams tied for the second Wild Card spot, which in the grand scheme is still essentially nothing.

      Add in the fact that Adam Lind has been back for all of one game, and Edwin Encarnacion is yet to return — meaning there is a very good chance they’re about to start playing better baseball — and the idea that anything is necessarily slipping away is consigned to those who can’t see past the most recent parcel of games. Yeah, it might be slipping away — nobody is saying it can’t be — but all the frustration you hear is just the venting of those who don’t or can’t understand how a baseball season works.

      Look at the graphs of the probabilities you’re so enamored with. In 2012 the Rays were at 83% on August 23rd and missed, the Orioles were at 19% on September 1st and made it. The Tigers were at 22% on September 17th and made it, while the White Sox were at 83% a day later and missed. The next year the Diamondbacks were at 0% on September 3rd, 100% on the 28th, then back to zero the next day. Etc., etc., etc.

      The season ebbs and flows — for us, and for them. The Jays certainly can have a lot more flow left in them, and certainly are far from a position where that doesn’t matter. And that’s the thing — nobody is a “garbage clown” if they’re upset that they lose. No honest fan wants to see them lose*. The garbage clowns are the ones saying fuck this, fuck that, they’re fucked, pack in it, whine about this, whine about that, fire this guy, fire that guy, how do we dismantle the team and start from scratch, etc. You can think all those things, of course –you can think anything you want — but if you don’t want to be a garbage clown, all that anybody is asking is to have a little fucking perspective and the ability to recognize what actually happens over the course of a baseball season. There is a lot of losing — for us and for them. Not that I’m saying you’re doing this, but the worst offenders can’t separate the “this team can’t hit, fuck everything, WAHHHH” nonsense from the reasonable “this team isn’t hitting enough right now.” They can’t recognize that this is, like, the tenth time this year people have flipped from thinking they really could do it to thinking that they’re fucked, and that it maybe suggests it’s ridiculous and counter-productive to any sort of conversation to keep knee-jerking from one direction to the next.

      Or shit, disagree and think this team really can’t hit enough. Just don’t be so ignorant as to pretend you know that, or that it’s based on whichever current hissy fit you’re in the midst of, or plow through a litany of things to whine about without demonstrating some sort of understanding of why things are and what they are. Again, not that I think you’re personally doing that, but the people you’re defending sure are. There are plenty of problems with this team, from ownership, right on down through mistakes the GM has made along the way, to flaws on the roster. Nobody is ever denying that. What I hope this blog tries to do is to understand all that — to understand all of it for what it is and why it is. And yeah, sometimes room to have those sorts of conversations needs to be cleared out by berating away the hopeless, unthinking doomsayers. If you think that means anybody who voices concern, that’s… well, that’s not the first thing you’d be off about.

      *Though garbage clowns seem to get a kick out of it, just because it gives them a chance to be garbage clowns.

      • I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that there are more than a few readers like banginthemelkman who feel the same way.
        I’m one of them.
        You still don’t seem to get it Stoeten.We watch the game differently.
        The season does ebb and flow.The Jays have gone from 4 games up, to 6.5 games back and each loss is more ground to be made up and one more game less to do it with.It’s concerning.
        Almost as bad as the “garbage clowns” complaining, even when the Jays win, are those that say “everything is fine” when the Jays are on a losing streak AND other teams are making up more ground.
        Reality is, the Jays aren’t making up ground they’re losing ground.
        And that’s not an arbitary endpoint,that’s the season to date.

        • Well said, RADAR and BangingtheMelkMan.

        • But two nights ago they gained ground on everybody. The only thing that’s fucked about the Jays right now is the suspension on their bandwagon.

          • It is becoming increasingly infrequent that they gain ground however… They need to a) get healthier b) be more consistent and c) rustle up a bit more luck/pixie dust from wherever they can find it.

        • No, RADAR, that’s not the season to date, that’s using the arbitrary endpoint of their high point in the standings.

        • But everything IS fine. Not because they’re definitely going to win, but because this is excellent baseball and we are all baseball fans. Sate your appetite and feel content.

      • Well said Andrew.

      • Some of the best writing of yours I’ve read in a while. Really well said.

        • Bang on. Pretty much a mini-article!

          End of the day, we’re enjoying summer baseball that might go on to autumn baseball. Personally, I’m enjoying the ride.


      • I was going to post something similar to what BangingTheMelkMan said, but he’s saved me the time and done it more eloquently to boot.

        I’m still hopeful. I’m still enjoying the hell out of this season. But it’s hard not to feel alarmed as the Jays have been sliding back. You hear the “it’s OK they’re still in first/it’s OK, they’re only a couple of games back/it’s OK, they still hold the wild card/it’s OK, they’re only a few games out of the wildcard” stuff and each time the situation gets worse you feel it in your gut, and that doubting voice in your head gets a little louder.

        I’m still of the mind that things will get better when Lind and Edwin are lengthening the lineup. But there’s still that fear that you’re in a boat, the water is inching up past your ankels, and you’re starting to wonder if the captain is bullshitting you that we’re gonna make it safe to port.

      • Probabilities are just that – probabilities. So 1 out of every 8 times someone has an 86% chance of making the post season, they are going to miss. Pointing out individual times that there was a high probability of something happening and didn’t or a low probability and something did happen doesn’t negate the overall impact of the probabilities.

        The frustrating thing is that as you go on in the season, each game becomes higher leverage. It’s the same way that the 9th inning is higher leverage in a close game than the first inning, even though a run in the first is worth the same as a run in the 9th.

        So to watch the team tread water in these higher leverage games while other teams go on hot streaks, and shoot down their playoff chances to the degree they have is immensely frustrating, and each loss adds to that. Do I believe in the idea of trending and that this team is doomed? Of course not. According to that model, 1 out of 5 times the rest of the season plays out the Blue Jays will make the playoffs, which is way higher than most years at this point in the season. In fact, it’s probably higher than that with Lind and Encarnacion back. But are our chances slimmer than they were yesterday? Yes. Is that something to be at least slightly concerned about? Yes.

        And if Kansas City is able to keep their playoff spot, the Blue Jays will be the team with the most consecutive seasons without a playoff spot. This team has nothing to do with the ’95 team, obviously, but ripping what looked like a playoff series out of the hands of the fans the way things have gone this year is not fun. And they may get it back, absolutely. But frustration is warranted.

      • Well said.

    • Stoeten is a fuckhead, end of story

      • Feel free to disagree with him. However, personal attacks are childish. In an unrelated note, feel free to let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, clown. It’s his blog.


    • It doesn’t minimise it so much as react to the insane bleatings of idiots who extrapolate the rest of the season from a single game. Losses suck, but there’s no reason to go nuts over them.

  2. Hi it’s garbage clown extraordinaire Kelly here.

    Great work guys, keep year chins up, go out and giver 110%! It’s okay that this club didn’t pick up any pitching in the Off-season or near the trade deadline! Ahh-gee-shucks boys, you just play your hearts out and I’ll be doing the wave for you. Yeah that’s me the guy in the Eric Hinkse Jersey whacking off to 92-93 World Series Videos at row 67 in the 500 level. Whooooooooooooooooooooo-Jays!

    Fuck me. This site is starting to smell like communist shit.

    • Exhibit A

      “If people didn’t defend the doomsayer point of view illogically and idiotically… they probably wouldn’t be berated.”

      • He probably write it in a bit too snark of a way, but what’s his point?

        To me, it reads like he’s frustrated at the fact that when he surveyed the team at the deadline, he saw a team that was good, in a poor division. A team that likely has its best shot at making the playoffs in 20 years, and he saw a team that was good, but very possibly not good enough.

        And he’s frustrated that management didnt do something to improve the team.

        And that’s an entirely valid issue. For God’s sake, the team leaders (who we’re told speak for the clubhouse) hold the exact same opinion. So if holding that opinion makes you a “garbage clown” then so is Bautista, Casey, and lots of guys on the team.

        And please…..don’t say there were no moves to make There were moves. That’s the job of a GM….to improve the team. And if you can’t improve the team when your in the first pennant race in 2 years, then when can you?

        And if he CHOSE not to make moves because he felt the team was good enough, then I guess we’l have to wait and see if he was right or not.

        • How impossible is it for people to realize that there were no deals to be made at the deadline? Stamp your feet all you like but this team loaded up two years ago after stock piling prospects for three. A similar deal cannot and will not be made until the prospect depth is back to where it was and we have a willing partner to make it happen. Reality. Go figure.

          • There were deals, what possibly makes you think there wasn’t? Because AA said so?

            Of course there aren’t going to be deals if your telling other GM’s that you cannot take back any money.

            Headley foe Francisco was one deal that we know of, that would have shore up both the lineup and the defense.

            Don’t be so quick to believe everything AA says.

            • How does Chase Headley’s bad back make any sense at the RC? As for the plethora of magic deals that AA was simply too lazy to conjure up, please take this opportunity to illuminate what he could have done without venturing into Fantasy baseball land, and how it all would have made such obvious sense. Please account for all 2014/15 payroll additions, subtractions and off season roster management decisions. Or perhaps your dissatisfaction is misplaced and relates more to Rogers inability to write blank cheques?

          • Making deals is like making art. Have some tools(we have some young players highly coveted) , splash some shit on the canvas and then run it down to the Soho art gallery to sell it. If it doesn’t sell, you go back and drum up a new idea. It’s endless. You have to be brave and keep trying. It could have been done.

            All we saw was Rogers shooting blanks on a white canvas after a vasectomy. It past the halfway mark of the season now, so it’s time for me to be fuckin pissed.

    • Yep, that’s about exactly what it sounds like.

      • Or it’s like the parable,”The emperor has no clothes”.
        Perhaps it is you that refuses to see the obvious.

        The Jays are trending away from a playoff spot not towards it.
        It’s not over, but it’s gonna be harder than what was previously thought.

        Keep the googles on, they obscure reality.

        • Yes Radar we all can read the standings. We all wish they won. We all probably even want to rant a little. But some of us aren’t attention whores that need to proclaim obvious things for the edification of everyone else. And some of us can accept a loss as a loss without relating last night to earlier unrelated seasons.

          • Just to add, sons, that I agree with you and with what Stoeten wrote above. I really think that you can be concerned, express that concern, and not be shouted down around here. You just need to be reasonable and — preferably — not write like an eight year old. Is that too much to ask?

            To me the definition of a “garbage clown” is the one mentioned in Stoeten’s footnote. There are some “fans” on this (and other) site(s) that only seem to come out when the Jays lose and seem to absolutely revel in it so that they can remind us of how right they were all along.

            Those people can just fuck right off…

          • Dude, shut the fuck up!

          • ^sons hits it out of the park

          • sons, there is a complete lack of symmetry in that argument – you see that right? God help stupid people…

          • Rant a little bit?
            Then why don’t you ?

            Isn’t that one of the functions of this blog

            Or are we supposed to watch the games like a bunch of vulcans if they lose and a bunch of North Koreans if they win. ?

        • Well there’s your problem –

          “The Jays are trending away from a playoff spot not towards it.
          It’s not over, but it’s gonna be harder than what was previously thought.”

          If there was a point this season where you thought it was going to be easy – or harder than you’d thought – to make the playoffs, then you haven’t been following along with realistic expectations.

          When the Jays were up by six games, this was still going to end up being a tight race in September.
          Now the O’s are up by six games, and this is still going to be end up being a tight race in September.

          Manic Jays Fans that feel the need to completely reassess every faction of this team after every single loss are exhausting.

          • ^^^ SO VERY MUCH THIS.

          • Well then,I guess my problem is solved.
            So it’s going to be a tight race either way so it’s all the same?.
            I’d still rather have the other teams chasing the Jays in September than having the Jays do chasing and hoping for a playoff spot.
            Voicing a concern about the team when other teams are surpassing or keeping pace for the final playin spot,isn’t a bad thing.
            Ignoring it is.
            BTW I haven’t given up,I’m still a fan.I know how this works.Thanks for letting me know how to be a fan and how I’m doing it wrong.I recognize that your way is the right way and we all should be the same.

            • Guys like RADAR and afdg must just wake up every day, look in the mirror and think “MAN… I am the fucking BEST.”

              • Guys like you must wake up and say “nobody should ever have an opposing opinion”.
                Time to grow up and open up your mind.
                Disagree or agree with whoever you want but try to understand there will be different viewpoints on issues.

  3. What used to be an exciting season is beginning to turn into a very frustrating season. It’s not because the team is bad. It’s because the Jays are very capable of winning the games that they lose. It’s so frustrating seeing the Yankees and Orioles win when we know the Jays should be winning too. I’m not giving up on the Jays. I am just frustrated that they keep on losing.

  4. Except these are the facts, winning is a lot harder than losing so to somehow expect that they might win 70% of remaiining games is ludicrous. Especially when you consider how bad our starting pitching has been, save stroman, and how bad the bullpen has been. Even casey is now getting shakey. Add in a totally inconsistent offence and we continue to have the worst avg with risp in AL. This is not a recipe for success and it totally explains the jays current record. This team is flawed and that’s why the record is what it is.

    • Totally inconsistent offence? Is there such a thing as a totally consistent offence? Plus of all things, we are missing 3 of the better bats.

      I agree it is getting harder to come back.

      • They’ve consistently been top five in MLB in terms of team wOBA and team wRC+ since early May. They’re currently second on the season in both stats, first in the AL.
        And the starting rotation, while not the greatest, has been at the bottom of middle of the pack. The team’s starters have an ERA comparable to Baltimore and a FIP better than them.
        They have what it takes to go on a run. The longer they go treading water the more concerning it is, but to give up at this point is ridiculous.

        • A more useful stat would be wrc+ and woba variance from game to game. Just don’t ask me to compile it.
          My sense is this team has a very high variance offensively. Getting EE and Lind back should help lower the variance which should translate into more wins. I hope.

    • I love how you say “these are the facts” and the go on to make shit up. I mean, disregarding the fact that stats with runners in scoring position are in no way predictive of the future and tell you nothing about the skills of the players involved and that batting average itself tells very little about what has actually happened, the Jays .249 batting average with RISP is tied for ninth in the AL. I must have missed the part where five teams folded.

  5. Um…..were there actually people that thought we were going to go on a road trip to Seattle and sweep them? Even before we played a 19 inning marathon the day before?

  6. Jays have to go 24-17 over their final 41 games to make the playoffs, 87 wins should be enough for a wild card spot.

    Though on a different note, if the royals make the the playoffs and the jays don’t, isn’t it kind of embarrassing to be a jays fan as the laughing stock of all of baseball? They would have the longest playoff less streak in baseball and North American sports. In mlb, the second closest streak would be the marlins at 11 years. 21 years without playoffs seems impossible if you played out those 21 seasons 1000 times, you would half ass your way into them at least once or twice right????

    Go jays go, but it does seem like time is ticking to right the ship.

    • On the other hand, Royals and Jays making the playoffs makes for a good story and maybe a Selig mini-chub on his way out the door.

      Come on umps starting squeezing the zone on the other guys for a change!!

    • It’s frustrating. Baltimore and Pittsburgh used to be way worse than the Jays for decades, but they’ve caught up (and passed them). Baltimore making the playoffs in 2012 and likely this year, Pittsburgh making it last year and could very well again this year. If KC is a playoff team then it feels like the apocalypse must be nigh.

    • I don’t think this makes them a laughingstock. But your facts are wrong — Seattle has a longer playoff drought than Miami.

    • Cubs fans spend less time whining about their team’s playoff drought than the Leafs fans that make up the Jays fan base. This despite the fact that along with the Padres, Phillies, Astros, Rays, Rockies, Reds, Red Sox, White Sox, Indians, Rangers, Marlins, Twins, Mets and Diamondbacks have shittier clubs this year. Get a grip.

  7. The only way the Jays make the playoffs is to win the division. This team could surprise me

  8. I honestly think Stoeten is a massive pile of steaming shit. All because of the way he treats other people on here.

  9. Well there is always 2015 :(

  10. Yes, the team has lost ground over the last several weeks.
    And yes, they are going to have to go on a run to lock down a playoff spot.

    What I’ve found amazing is that they’ve been able to hang around
    while they’ve been running out a lineup of about 4-5 MLB bats with
    the rest of the lineup made up of prospects, scrubs and guys off the scrap heap.

    Now that Lind is back and with EE due back Friday, the lineup gets a bit longer.
    Maybe they can go on a run like they did earlier in the season.

    They’re still in 2nd place in the Division,
    they have 6 games left vs the leaders
    and no other teams to climb over.
    They’re in with a chance.

    In the Wild Card, they are two games back of two teams.
    They can claw back one game on one of the teams tonight.
    But if they’re going to stay in that hunt, best they get rolling quickly.

    Would I bet the house that they’re going to make the playoffs? No.
    Do I think it is possible that they’ll make it? Yeah.
    Probable? ………………..not so sure about that one.

    It cost me about $800.00 (hotel, food, transportation, tickets etc)
    to be in Toronto for the Tiger series last weekend.
    Was it worth it? Hell yeah. Great entertainment value.
    Would I do it again? Hell yeah. Got tickets for both Yankees and Rays.

    Don’t know how its going to turn out
    but I’m going to enjoy the ride.

  11. Melky’s first AB showed how horrible the umps are getting. 10 years ago it was just Angel Hernandez, but now every series has at least one badly called game.

    • Yeah and while I hate the manager takes a stroll to stall for time portion of replay, at least they are getting the call right most of the times. Maybe it’s time for robot umps so that we don’t get squeezed on the strike zone.

  12. Remember where the Royals were three weeks ago? Baseball is fucking weird. Month and a half to go, who the fuck knows what’ll happen?

  13. Yes, losses are frustrating – but with the wild-card spots, a post-season berth is certainly not out of reach. Frankly, one decent run of wins could vault them into the playoffs.
    But I’m so happy to still be playing) MEANINGFUL baseball into the middle of August….and taking some small consolation knowing that they’ve played competitive ball with a cobbled-together lineup.
    I’m hoping they can hand around in the weeds…and then seeing if the return of EE and Lind can turn a couple of games around.

  14. ….HANG around in the weeds. Sorry.

  15. All I know is that Danny Valencia vs RHP is a horrible thing to watch.

    • Agreed

      Gibbers has typically been good with keeping his lefty split guys away from lefty pitching. At least as much as possible. Not sure why he can’t read splits for righties.

      • It kinda amazes me when there are guys at this level that can’t hit RHP. How did you make it this far without be able to hit righties when nearly 75% of the pitchers you faced coming up were RH.

        Regardless I agree, Valencia, and tolleson see way too much RHP.

      • Because there were a couple games where he hit some really bad hangers off of righties and gibby let tiny sample size affect his judgement

        • Swinging once at a ball bounced in front of the plate will have everyone smirking, doing it twice will have you sitting for extended period of time to reflect on the error of your ways


    A nice little 5 game win streak will fix that. We’re only 2GB on the Wild Card. BUT just for fun let’s blame a few players (all numbers post All-Star):

    MARK BUEHRLE: ERA 7.04, WHIP 2.17, seems like he’s got nothing left in the tank, and he’s worth 20MM next year. Fuck I will be glad when he’s off the books. Is it 2016 yet?

    NOLAN FUCKIN’ REIMHOLD: forget about the 2HR game already, this bum is hitting .172 with 16Ks in 29AB… How is this scrap heap bum better than KEVIN PILLAR again? (Fuck did you see PILLAR eating goat last night in that interview?.. It was kinda painful yet refreshingly brutally honest. Bring the kid up, Jesus, just to shut fans up about it).

    FAT JUAN FRANCISCO: .175/.246/.349, defensive liability, no hustle fuckin’ bum. DFA this worthless lump of shit already!!!

    STEVE TOLLESON: How does this guy get a free pass hitting .143?

    Why wait until Sept. 1 to infuse some energy into this team? Bring up Pillar and Getz (he’s better than Tolleson) and 2013 ALL STAR Steve Delabar ASAP, IMVHO)

    • agree with most everything, except I believe chirs getz retired earlier this year

    • Fuck off
      Tolleson hits RHP well, pillar can’t hit ml pitching

      • Agree keep Tolleson, disagree that we know PIllar can’t hit in Majors. One thing we do know is that Gose can’t yet.

      • No he doesn’t

        Tolleson doesn’t hit anything well

        He’s not a good player

        He’s better at hitting lefties than he is righties but that doesn’t make him good at it. He had good numbers vs righties over a very link turf sample this year and suddenly now a Kawasaki Tolleson platoon is so show a reasonable option for a contender (it’s not )

    • Getz retired

      Your rant was close, but no cigar

    • Getz has left baseball altogether, so no bringing him back.

    • Putting aside the fact that, as mentioned, Getz retired a while ago, he was also pretty horrible. At least Tolleson contributes something: a 152 wRC+ against lefties. The problem has been when he’s been put in too often against righties, where he’s completely useless.

      Reimold has been solid overall and has basically done what we would LOVE to see out of Pillar. So… yeah, maybe stick with the one who’s getting results and not overreact to a couple rough games.

      Francisco has plenty of flaws, but, despite his recent struggles, his wRC+ against righties is still 131, which is right around Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez and Brandon Moss in the top 40 in the majors.

      Buehrle… yeah, he’s been terrible lately, but they’re not paying him to play after the All-Star break, they’re paying him for the full season, over which he still has some very respectable numbers.

      • I don’t need wrc+ to tell me anything about Fatfrisco. He sucks. Trust your eyes, stats lie. I’d take Beltre against rhp over him any day

    • I was all aboard the Fat Juan train earlier when he was smashing bombs. But jeez the constant Ks and weak play 1B lately have been hard to watch.

    • Pillar needs to take a walk. Tolleson has been terrific against LHP.

  17. Remember the Pillar superman slide in May? That shit wins championships! I love Gibby, but every time I hear about the Pillar stuff I get more and more angry. He should be up here, and I bet he’d be a shot in the arm this offense needs. No I have no reason for saying that other than just pure ol sports cliche gut feeling. I don’t know where he’d play though as I do like what Gose contributes too.

  18. I will attend your bitch talk.

  19. What I don’t understand is: Why does almost every post here have to address the fucking Jays Talk callers?

    Some of us on here are just fully on board. Go Jays Go.

    Some of us are getting dispirited, but are reasonable fans none the less.

    For the few that are “garbage clowns,” just delete their fucking comments. You do that already. But instead, this blog has become 70% about address “idiot” Jays fans.

    It’s like continually focusing attention on Sarah Palin. She’s irrelevant. Just ignore the stupidity and move on.

    • I find myself sort of agreeing with this.

      • Me too. It’s tiring reading rants about “garbage clowns” and “negative shitholes” when people with those attitudes make up a minority of the commentators here.

    • + igoogle

    • yep

    • Uh… maybe that happens too much, but pretty sure saying it here is misplaced. Didn’t really say a whole lot in the post you’re referring to. If you’re talking about the comments, that’s all organic responding to what other people are writing — no ranting out of nowhere.

      • Just a general rather than a specific observation, Andrew. I just feel the trolls get fed more here than they really should is all.

      • You made a two-line post that talked directly to it again. The only point of a quick post like this is to give people a place to talk. But you — perhaps unwittingly — just led the conversation right back to those Jays Talk-ers.

        And it’s part of a larger trend. This blog has turned into nothing but talking about how people are idiots. Fire Gibby jokes. Garbage clown call outs.

        Who the fuck cares about those people? How about we talk about the Jays? And when idiots in the comment section say OUTRAGEOUSLY dumb stuff, well there’s no shortage of people on here to correct them. And if they’re trolling, then delete and ignore is unquestionably the best practice.

        • The blog is about the conversation about the Jays as much as the Jays themselves. I’m not about to kill off that aspect of it. Like I say, I agree that the banging my head against the wall with some people is maybe too much sometimes and especially lately, but it’s certainly not going away.

          • So in short, for as long as there is an idiot, this shit will continue. Right?

          • Garbage trolls are one thing but the venom directed at those of us who happen to have a contrarian view on the state of this team is a bit over the top.
            I’d say the vast majority of us, either on the boatbus or on shore worried that it’s sinking are all ‘fans’. We just have a different take on where the Jays are at.
            Makes for good discussion most of the time
            If you ask me.

    • I think you kinda nailed it here.

  20. Is it time for a 2014 version of the 2013 End of the World/2012 Apocalypse Jays graphic??

    The ship may not be sinking, but she’s taking on water.

  21. Oops on the Chris Getz thing, fuck that’s embarrassing, the proverbial egg is on my face, I was just scouring the AAA Bison’s stats there and his numbers kinda jumped out, totally forgot about that. RANT MODE.

    What is going on with STEVE DELABAR? He was an all-star last year and now totally forgotten, rotting away in Buffalo.

    Also anyone hear anything about how BRANDON MORROW’s recovery?

    • What’s going on with Delabar is that he was horrible in the majors this year and he’s not so much “rotting away” as he is “not pitching very well” in Buffalo (although, to be honest, his numbers seem to be improving steadily, but he’s still walking a ton of batter).

    • You’re best qualified hitters in AAA in terms of batting average are Pillar, Goins, and Mastroianni.

      Delabar couldn’t throw strikes for his fucking life, remember? He may or may not be finding it again recently.

      Morrow is continuing his throwing program, could be back as a reliever as early as September

  22. At this point I don’t see the harm in letting Sanchez have a start for Hutchinson. And while we are at it promote Norris and let him get his carrot wet in the bullpen as Sanchez did.

    Hutch has been good on extra rest, Sanchez has been great out of the pen.
    It’s time. Hutch can go back on his regular turn in a week.

  23. Hell’s yeah, the ship is sinking. We’ve stopped hitting again, never could really field too well except when Goins, Diaz and Gose were up the middle (but this came with the caveat of their bats in the lineup) while on the pitching side, Beuhrle’s gassed, Hutch is half-gassed, and we’ve already wasted too many great J.A. Happ starts where there’s been no run support. They’re in a tough stretch and they’re going to keep losing until everyone of us has lost faith…But that’s when they’ll start winning again.

    It’s not that any single facet will carry the team, but everything will go right, they’ll hit enough when the pitching is poor and they’ll pitch enough when the hitting slumps. The defense will stun us with unexpected great plays, line drives will be crushed directly at our fielders, and our opposition will make errors at critical times. While the umps will still make bad calls against us, those won’t be of nearly as much consequence as the ones made for us.

    Why do I say this? Because it’s a special year! The majority of experts picked the Jays for 4th or 5th in the East, but they led for a month and a half, and they’re still in it! The fact that they’re still within striking distance of a playoff spot really defies all logic and yet they’re still there. This team is special, it’s their year.

    Here’s how it will go…After falling hopelessly out of the race, the Jays go on a tear, leaving Seattle, LAA, Cleveland and whoever else in their wake. With a week left to play they find themselves 3.5 back of the Tigers but manage to eclipse them for the final wildcard spot. The Jays win the play-in game against the surging Yankees, thus ending Jeter’s illustrious career of Jays torment since 1996.

    In the ALDS the Jays sweep the Orioles, as payback for them taking away Alomar, all the while Chad Jenkins warms up in the bullpen, never gets into the game and somehow brilliantly places the blame squarely on the shoulders of any O’s manager.

    In the ALCS, the well-rested Jays come out cold and fall behind 3 games to 1. At this point, Marcus Stroberhagen, a third baseman named Brett and Juan Balboni put us on their backs and carry us victory.

    We then face the Braves in the World Series, and win game seven with a late inning comeback in which every player who offered a salary defferal hits a homerun off Ervin Santana.

    Then all of us, all the Jays fans, the ones who bleed blue -until it get’s oxidized-, the smart ones, the dumb ones, the nice ones, the mean ones, the tall ones, the short ones, – the ones who suffered through the era of Jacob Brumfield being our best hitter, Tim Johson lying to our faces, losing Delgado and Green for nothing, giving up Young, Napoli and Gomes for Loaiza, Francisco and Rogers, and watching Roy Halladay say “It’s nothing personal, but I’d love it if I could play somewhere else”- We pour onto Yonge St. and we celebrate together.

    If you think this story is so crazy then you can get off the boat now, but I don’t think any of you will.

    Remember it’s really likely that the Jays’ disheartening thrashing of the Red Sox this year, resulted in them throwing in the towel on 2014. It’s time to avenge the rest!

  24. To me it’s not that they can’t make the playoffs it’s the way they may make the playoffs. Obviously 2 games back with a quarter of the season anything can happen. Still I don’t get excited about a .500 hockey team getting the 8th playoff spot or even a team in any sport finishing close to the middle of the pack….even if one of those teams is awarded some sort of playoff berth. And yes, 5th place in a 13 team league is closer to the middle than the top.

    I’m a baseball fan that was, and is, against playoff expansion for this very reason. It’s hard to get overly excited about a team that doesn’t feel like a top of the league team. The league makes the rules and the rules allow for a mediocre team to sneak in but I just wish the Jays were making statements and building the type of the lead the O’s are. This isn’t negative for the sake of negativity. Anyone who has watched baseball for the past 30 or so years surely knows the difference between a top team and the team the Jays are fielding.

    If they get the second WC great, I mean it’s something. But honestly, I’m only going to get really excited if they storm back and win the division. I know the day will come were a middling team sneaks in and wins the WS but I don’t want the Jays to be that team. I want them to win their division and then get some of those playoff bounces that make a WS winner. I see the season as a greater test of a team.

    • So you don’t want the Jays to win the WS unless they are a favorite?

      Me, I’ll take the championship anyway it comes.

    • “I know the day will come were a middling team sneaks in and wins the WS but I don’t want the Jays to be that team.”

      You sound like the guy who wanted the Jays to fall out of the race so all the idiots and bandwagon fans would go away

      If you win a WS it means you beat the best teams when it mattered most. What you said is just incredibly stupid. Would you rather them go all the way as a second wild card this year, or go all the way as a division champ 20 years from now? Why am I wasting so many words on this horseshit?

      • Well I’m actually a guy who wanted them to win enough to pull away in the race. I really wish baseball never expanded the playoffs and there was no second WC race to speak of. It doesn’t have the same feeling as a race for top spot. It is what it is, a number of middling teams going for the top of the mediocre. It’s just not that exciting to me.

        • Then don’t watch. Problem. Solved.

        • You’re looking at it the wrong way

          You see “a number of middling teams going for the top of the mediocre” when it’s really a number of teams that maybe didn’t have everything going their way the whole season competing for a chance at the playoffs, in which anything can happen. If the teams are so middling and mediocre, they won’t stand a chance in the playoffs anyway, right?

          It also increases the value of the division title, so teams can’t just be content with the top wild card spot. Of course we all want the Jays to take the division, but if they can sneak in via the WC too, it’s not like it’s that disappointing

        • In a sense, they kind of shrunk the playoff positions, not expanded them.

          There were 8 real playoff positions. Now there are 6.

          In seasons past, when teams were toed and played a 1 game playoff, that wasn’t really considered “the playoffs”.

          I get that on the statsheet the stats from that game would be recorded under “post season play” but I don’t think anyone actually considered them the playoffs. Neither then is the WC playoff game really “the playoffs”.

          All that winning the WC does is give you the right to a 1 game playoff to MAKE “the playoffs”

          • It is the playoffs though. Because if multiple teams are tied for the second wildcard , they have to play a tiebreaker, and THEN play the wildcard playoff game.

            It’s the same as other tournaments, the three division leader teams get a bye on the wildcard game during the playoffs. To say it isnt a playoff game is just untrue.

  25. Orioles/Spanks were rained out last night. The game has been rescheduled as part of a doubleheader on September 12.

    The extra wear and tear on those two teams during that final stretch is nothing but a good thing.

    The Orioles have very few off days the rest of the season, which will be brutal for them. It also means they are anything but a lock to win the division.

  26. I don’t know how I feel about all of this. On the one hand I think it’s great that Andrew provides a rational perspective, but on the other I really dislike how he almost pushes for a sense of apathy from the fan base. The word ‘Fan’ is derived from the word fanatic. We’re supposed to be passionate, we’re supposed to be outspoken, we’re supposed to be really upset when things go wrong, and thrilled when they go right.

    Now if when you get upset at the team and then take personal shots are guys or you rant and rave about Andrew’s mom, or physique, etc. then just go fuck right off. That stuff is garbage bullshit and has no place anywhere. But if you want to complain about a team with obvious holes that did not plug any of them for 18 months despite being in playoff contention, then by all means have at ‘er!

    I think that if you are a true fan, not only do you have the RIGHT to, but you also have the RESPONSIBILITY to! Ownership feeds off our understanding and sense of apathy! And that’s why the teams in this town have been printing money for 20 years off of our compassion. If you want a winner, you have to make them afraid of you! They have to fear that you’ll turn your back on them and take your money with you.

    If all the fans are as calm and sensible as Andrew preaches, we’ll be watching mediocre teams forever.

    • It’s been tough to rant and still be reasonable with the circumstances the Jays were/are in

      A lot of the possible names for the Jays to acquire from the offseason to the trade deadline were either unattainable without blowing up the system, or hardly enough of an upgrade to make sense. At least it seems that way.

      Jimenez, Santana, Price, Masterson, Headley, Prado, etc

      Would it be nice to have more depth to tap into? Sure, but those pieces aren’t floating out there to be had and perform like starters consistently as needed. The upper level prospects that teams have come up and contribute aren’t all there for the Jays. Blame who you will for that. It’s just not an easy situation that Gibby and AA are in

  27. As far as everybody saying Valencia and Tolleson shouldn’t be in the line-up vs RHP, Thole is the only other LHB option off the bench that puts up okay numbers:

    Thole – .246/.350/.290 wRC+ of 85
    Tolleson – .078/.161/.118 wRC+ of -26 (yeeeeeeeeesh…)
    Valencia – .200/.243/.257 wRC+ of 37

    We essentially need EE and Lawrie back for that to go away. Unless there is someone down in AAA who mashes LHP and can play infield other than Goins

    • in AAA who mashes RHP*

      I fucked up, I know

    • vs RHP shouldn’t it be Fat juan at third, kawa at second and jose at 1b, with moldy playing RF?

      • I guess you could do that, and hope Reimold’s legs don’t break from under him

      • Or Gose in RF?

        • Yeah, this is where too much positional juggling comes into play.

          If you don’t want Vally or Tolly in the line-up, you NEED to put Frisco at third, have Lind or Bautista at first, and then the DH option is left to either Cletus/Bautista or Cletus/Lind depending on who’s playing first in order for Gose to fill into whatever OF spot it left void by Bautista or Cletus.

  28. Just spitballing here, and I know that this was our best chance in roughly 20 years, but, with a full year behind Drew, a full rookie season from dirty Sanchez, a full season of experience from Stroman, and Norris knocking on the door, could management be thinking let this year play out and keep our prospects, cause next year should be the time to go for it? I know that letting it play out this year sucks, and I know they promised to go for it, but the reality is, circumstances change and your plans have to change with them. Personally I still like this years chances. All they need is a good run and, hopefully, the rails come out from under the Orioles.

  29. [Pathetic].

  30. Im a Buehrle fan, but he looks burnt out, and that he could use a skip in the rotation. Maybe bring in someone for a spot start.. Redmond? Nolin? Romero?

  31. What is the difference between baltimore and the jays? it seems the glaring difference is the manager. Showalter is badass and we have a country club manager. I just don’t see any chemistry between gibbons and anyone. We seem to have too many soft players who can’t handle the pressure. Why is it we always spend years in the wilderness hoping that our mediocre players become good instead of getting rid of them? aaron hill, rios, JPA, rasmus, lawrie. St louis got rid of rasmus quick when they realized he didn’t have the makeup. We spend 3 years with him for nothing. The jays seem more interested in making players happy than actually winning.

  32. I heard a rumor this morning that Beeston might be off to work at the MLB next year with the new commish.

    Anyone seen/heard anything about this?

    Does he have a strong relationship with any of the 3 candidates?

    • My sources tell me…oh, who am I kidding? All my friends are dead or in jail. I failed at life. Dad was right about me. Anyone seen my bong?

    • He is, or was reportedly very popular throughout baseball in the past, and he’s got experience working in that office, but i haven’t read anything much about him being a serious candidate.
      You never know though.

    • It’s possible,I haven’t heard anything.
      He’s the former COO of MLB.
      He hand picked his successor, who’s also in the running.

  33. The Jays have officially hit Toronto Maple Leafs territory. Good enough to have a slim shot at the playoffs, not good enough to make the playoffs. Hold position, don’t take advantage of the ability to greatly improve depth going forward by selling any assets.

    We’ll see. I’d say that in 2 weeks if this club has slipped further you have to look really hard at trading Colby, Happ, and Janssen for prospects that can help this club in the future.

    • So trade a struggling player who’s a free agent at the end of the year, a good player who’s a free agent at the end of the year, and an OK starter? The prospect haul will be enormous! Think we can get Tavares offa the Cards?

    • fuck I hate the leafs.

    • The Jays are 2 games out of a playoff spot with 41 games to go. I’m struggling to understand how that qualifies them for the “not good enough to make the playoffs” category.

      I’m sure they’ll sell off some assets if the time is right. The time is not right when you’re – and I know I’m repeating myself here, but I really can’t stress this enough – 2 games out of a playoff spot with 41 games to go.

      • ohhhhh….i like it. Alot can happen in 41 games, here’s hoping Kitten Face and Parrot Guy bump up the offence

    • Hockey fans need to fuck off.

      • Hey, c’mon.

      • there’s nothing wrong with being a fan of more than one sport. Now those trying to tie the Leafs and the Jays together cause they’re both from Toronto, those people can fist themselves, and after lick they’re hand for not including the Raptors.

        • Except that there is a tendency amongst hockey fans to analyze all sports through a hockey lens. Look at all that “heart and grit” nonsense, for instance.

          • Stupid ones, yes. I guess we are not the norm, but there are baseball fans out there, that also are hockey fans, and are also Basketball fans, and football fans, that realize there isn’t a whole lot that anyone of them have to do with one another.

            • Thank you. I’m sure there’s a pretty high correlation between being a hockey fan and having a poor understanding of baseball, but not everyone fits into both groups. I’m as big a hockey fan as anyone, but I’ve never referred to grit or compete level or effort or coaching or anything like that to explain why the team struggles. I think a lot of people fit into both the hockey fan and analytical baseball fan groups.

          • Yeah, well, if the Jays played a two hundred foot game and raised their compete level a smidge, they’d still be atop the division.

            • Does playing Gose as the sole OF to track every deep fly ball between the lines count as a 200 ft game?

  34. machado is injurred and the jays are getting lind and ee back into the lineup soon…maybe lawrie in september.

    the team has proven to be a run scoring powerhouse when those guys are in the lineup.
    don’t the jays still have like 2 series against the o’s? weren’t they 6 games back as recently as yesterday?

    pessimism of the intellect is okay, sensible even, but unless you balance it out with a little fucking optimism of the will, you just sound like a fucking baby…especially when it comes to a team you are supposed to be “fans” of. jeez.

    go jays, you assholes.

  35. Could someone explain as to how Pillar is posting a lower OBP than AVG? Shouldn’t they be the same if you’ve never drawn a walk?

    • sacrifices?

      • Apparently you’re correct, according to wikipedia. It’s not counted as an AB, but it counts as a PA. And Pillar has one SF.

    • sac flies don’t count for avg but they do for OBP, Sac bunts don’t count for either. So I guess pillar has a lot of sac flies, and also not many HBP

    • Could it be sac bunts, it doesn’t effect your average but you don’t get on base?

      • You guys beat me too it.

        • S’all good. I don’t know how many times I’ve wish comments just automatically popped up instead of after refreshing the page. I’m sure it would save almost all of us from repeating each other.

  36. Jays just claimed LHP Colt Hines off waivers from the Dodgers, will report to Buffalo.


    • As the Jays can tell you, trotting out a lefty, even a mediocre one, can get you results… The more the merrier

  37. I wish Lind’s mom would tell him to maybe put some time in practicing hitting lefties during the off-season. That and maybe hit up a yoga studio and/or work on his core/back strength.

    • Momma Kitten-Face – “ADAM! Make sure you do your funny looking streches after your crunches and pull-ups before you go hit the tee!”

  38. Chone Figgins unconditionally released by the Dodgers.

    Normally would have no interest until I saw that he has a .373 OBP this season? I don’t know what his defense is like, but given his utility, that could be pretty interesting considering it would cost nothing.

    What say you Chone?

    • Scratch that. Just saw it was over a pretty insignificant sample size.

      Sorry Chone. Continue posting as per usual.

    • Chone’s fall from grace makes me sad as fuck. I feel sorta personally responsible. Every player i pop a boner over usually goes to shit immediately – Chone Figgins, Josh Johnson, Joey Devine, Randy Wolf, Chad Billingsley….the list is long

  39. I would if I could….maybe I’ll pick up a Caleb Joseph autographed baseball on ebay or someshit…might help

  40. This comment section is intense. Can we get a podcast about garbage clowns sometime soon?

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