Archive for the ‘Anthopoulos Speaks!’ Category

Anthopoulos Speaks!: Part Two – Eric Thames

Posted by Andrew Stoeten under Anthopoulos Speaks!, Eric Thames, Travis Snider on Mar 14, 2012

Alex Anthopoulos was on the Fan590 this morning with Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt (audio here), and while a lot of it was typical Anthopoulosian blather, he did admit that he overstepped when he proclaimed last year that Adeiny Hechavarria was a shortstop, end of story, and he had a few things to say that were definitely worth noting– even if we don’t necessarily believe what he’s saying. Actually, especially if we don’t.

Part Two of Three – Eric Thames (But Mostly Travis Snider)

“Travis knows that Eric is the frontrunner going in. Eric knows that he’s not being handed the job. Travis is going to have to play that much better than Eric, because the context of spring stats,” said Alex Anthopoulos, summing up the left field situation as best he could, in response to a Stephen Brunt question about the impressive start Travis Snider has had in camp.

“I knew that the competition in left field would be a story,” he lamented. “I was hoping it wouldn’t be as much of a point of emphasis, strictly because, by design it was– we told Travis this, we told Eric this– Eric is frontrunner for the job.”

That assertion is about as emphatic as Anthopoulos gets (non-responding to intellectually dishonest and/or moronic Man in White accusations division), and it caused some uproar in the comments on the Chart Attack post from yesterday, where my little, entirely-unscientific Travis Snider head edged past Thames into the lead for the position.

As I said then, the Jays most likely don’t quite view it as a horse race, the way makes the most sense to our minds. I could have added that, if they do, there’s really no value to them in saying so outwardly, toying with these guys’ minds and making it a bigger story than it already is.

If there genuinely is a competition, Snider has to have made a much bigger first impression than Thames. Anthopoulos seems to acknowledge it, downplaying it while astutely noting that “Travis has been great, Eric has played very well also, but I’m also cognizant of the fact that these are small sample sizes in Spring Training against not the greatest of competition.”

In that sense, Thames is still most likely viewed as the frontrunner– and quite rightly so, especially since Alex makes clear that part of the reason there’s even a competition involving an incumbent starter is because he “to adjust my style, from a philosophy standpoint, because I think maybe it’s not the best thing in the world to hand a kid a job.”

But the sample sizes will get larger, and as cuts are made across the various camps, the level of competition will rise.

“It’s nothing against Travis,” he says, “because I love him as a player, I love him as a human being, I love him as a prospect, but you don’t want to guarantee anything.”

Further to that, ”I really want to avoid the up and down with Travis,” Anthopoulos explains. “Hopefully the next time he’s up here, whether it’s Opening Day, or it’s some point during the season, or whether it’s next year, he’s here to stay.”

Perhaps that indicates that the team is going to be more inclined to take a cautious approach with Snider, even if he outperforms Thames thoroughly this spring. And, you know what? If they’re not ready to give him the reins on April fifth, because of a fear that he’ll once again lose his consistency and have to be sent back down, while some fans seem to want to look at that as some kind of indication that Snider’s task this spring is impossible, and that the organization is probably looking to move on, I just don’t know how they fucking figure. The Jays’ reasoning on all this sounds about right to me.

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Anthopoulos Speaks!: Part One – Brett Cecil

Posted by Andrew Stoeten under Anthopoulos Speaks!, Brett Cecil on Mar 14, 2012

Alex Anthopoulos was on the Fan590 this morning with Jeff Blair and Stephen Brunt (audio here), and while a lot of it was typical Anthopoulosian blather, he did admit that he overstepped when he proclaimed last year that Adeiny Hechavarria was a shortstop, end of story, and he had a few things to say that were definitely worth noting– even if we don’t necessarily believe what he’s saying. Actually, especially if we don’t.

Part One of Three – Brett Cecil

“I think Cecil has looked outstanding,” Anthopoulos insisted, after being asked about the rumours swirling in the vacuum created by the dearth of information he allows to become public about his club. “His changeup is great. Obviously his committed himself, his body is outstanding [note: rawwwr!]. He’s always been a great athlete, but he’s even that much more athletic now, with the added weight loss.

“His velocity’s fine. People like to make something of it, but Brett Cecil’s never been a power guy.”

Anthopoulos notes that Cecil’s strikeout rates have come down precipitously since he was striking out over a batter per inning at high-A and double-A in 2008, but he attributes that to the increase in competition as he’s moved up the ladder. He also says that he looks at Cecil’s rate stats from his successful 2010 as being in line with his 2011 numbers, and that run support and outfield defence did him in to a large extent.

Anthopoulos is right that Cecil has never been a true power guy, but he’s not giving us the full story here, either.

In a 2009 piece for ESPN.com Jason Grey notes Cecil’s two-pitch arsenal, a “low-90s two-seamer” and a wipeout slider. It’s not what anybody except maybe Cecil himself would call a power pitcher– in a 2009 interview with Baseball Prospectus said, “I’d say that I’m a power pitcher, yet I’m not overpowering. I don’t have a 96 or a 97 [mph fastball], I’m more low 90s, maybe 93 or 94 at times. So I’m a power pitcher, but not an overpowering power pitcher.”

It’s also not where he’s at now, either.

Interestingly, the outstanding changeup didn’t develop until later, as Shi Davidi noted in a piece for Sportsnet last March.

“I first came in to pro ball and I was throwing 90-95 and I couldn’t get my changeup below 88. So I fought and battled myself, battled different grips and just nothing worked,” Cecil told him. “Finally I found one that worked in double-A, I got it from Robbie Ray.”

The key, Davidi wrote, is that “the new grip lopped off about two m.p.h., from the pitch speed, dropping the average from 83.3 to 81.4. That made for about a nine m.p.h. separation between his average change and average fastball, and given that his velocity tops out at 94-95, he has the ability to widen the gap and keep hitters even more off-balance.”

The previous spring Marc Hulet wrote at FanGraphs that ”in just his third MLB start of the year, Cecil pitched eight innings, allowed one hit, walked two batters and struck out 10, which was a career high (in 21 MLB appearances). He mixed his four-pitch repertoire effectively and dials his fastball up to 93 mph, when needed.”

So… OK, yes, we all know that Cecil threw a bit harder coming out of college, and saw a drop in velocity last year from which he didn’t recover– though in his last start of 2011 he was sitting over 91 for an inning or so, and broke 92 once, before settling in around 88 or 89. But, knowing that, given what the Davidi piece says about Cecil’s success relying on the gap between his fastball and changeup velocity, I’m not entirely sure why we shouldn’t at least be a little concerned.

Maybe if his changeup had a drop in velocity that mirrored the fastball’s it would mitigate it, but according to the Pitch F/X data at FanGraphs, that wasn’t the case.

Of course, if he can keep the ball down and command the strike zone, there’s no reason Cecil can’t be successful. Just maybe not as successful as he could be with the velocity he showed prior to last year– which, let’s not forget, it’s not impossible for him to get back to, especially since we really need to keep reminding ourselves that it’s still quite early.

And in that sense, I entirely get why Anthopoulos is acting unconcerned. What sticks out at me, somewhat ominously, though, from looking around at these old articles, however, is a Keith Law chat back when Cecil was in the minors, where he writes that it’s “so far so good” for Brett’s conversion from college reliever to pro starter, “but he threw a LOT of breaking balls in college and was used heavily and strangely.”

I’m not saying he’s hurt– and I should hope not, seeing as he threw over 200 innings between the Majors and Las Vegas last year– but… maybe it’s just that it’s spring and there’s fuck all else to talk about, it’s just, the whole thing genuinely is a little bit strange, isn’t it?

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Anthopoulos Speaks!: Drabek is "Finally Starting to Get It"

Posted by Andrew Stoeten under Anthopoulos Speaks!, Kyle Drabek on Mar 02, 2012

Now, don’t get confused by the title of this post and start thinking that Alex Anthopoulos was being overly critical of his young pitcher– the “it” he was referring to Kyle Drabek finally starting to get, when he appeared on the Fan 590′s Brady & Lang this morning, is the ability to repeat a delivery that doesn’t see him land falling off the mound to the first base side, allowing him to better command his pitches.

Money quote:

“He’s the guy who is really starting to open some eyes, and the biggest thing is from a mechanical standpoint– from a strike-throwing standpoint. You guys have seen him plenty: great stuff, velocity, curve ball. The stuff is there, it’s matter of throwing strikes and command.

I’ve always compared him, in terms of delivery– I remember when Romero was in the minor leagues, and he was in New Hampshire for three years, pretty much, putting up 5.00 ERAs, and he always had good stuff and [the concern] was the ability to throw strikes. There was a similarity that they did in their deliveries. They would fall off the mound, after they threw a pitch, to one side– obviously with Romero he’d fall off to third base, and Drabek would fall off to first base. But Kyle’s finally starting to get it now, and I’m curious to see how it translates to games.

We’re going to see it tomorrow against the Pirates, but he’s starting to make strides, and our development staff and the big league staff has really done a great job with him. So, he’s finally starting to turn the corner. He’s not all the way there yet– because he will revert back [to his old delivery]– but I was more encouraged about his last– the outing that he showed here– than I’ve been about him in a long time.”

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Anthopoulos Speaks!: Spring Training

Posted by Andrew Stoeten under Anthopoulos Speaks! on Feb 27, 2012

At some point over the weekend Alex Anthopoulos held court with the throngs of media who’ve gathered in Dunedin for the spring ritual of all writing the exact same fucking story every day [Note: they've actually been doing better at this than in year's past, I think, despite what I'm about to write], and the Globe and Mail, National Post, MLB.com, Toronto Sun and others have got you covered with recaps of the GM’s comments.

Some highlights!

As far as the only real position battle in camp goes, at least among fielders not named McCoy, Vizquel and Valbuena, Anthopoulos reiterated comments from earlier in the winter that Eric Thames has the inside track on the left field job, because of his performance last year, and the fact that he finished the season with the job. However, the nobody will be handed the role, and they’re going to look less at spring stats, but quality of at-bats, as well as how Thames and Travis Snider play defence– something Thames was said to have worked hard on over the off-season.

He talked pure, unadulterated, 100% sense about Brett Lawrie, being quoted by the Globe thusly:

“I’m cautiously optimistic because I just know from experience with young players that they don’t always just hit the ground running and don’t stop. The league will have to adjust to him; he’ll have to adjust back. I think even his last 10 games or so before he got hurt, he started to chase a little bit more and so on, but at the same time he obviously was great. He was great when he came up and played for us – defensively, offensively, everything he brings, great teammate. And I thought the quality of his at-bats were outstanding. That being said, I don’t think it’s fair to take the stats he had last year and try to pro-rate them over 500 at-bats.”

He’s also got his head on straight when it comes to Brett Cecil– as he said that, while laying down the law with the 25-year-old isn’t exactly his style, but “I called him, beginning of November, and I just told him I thought he was at a crossroads in his career. His ability is such that he should be a part of this rotation, shouldn’t have to think about getting optioned and so on.” Anthopoulos predicted that Cecil would have “a big year.” Hey, he’s already won the Vernon Wells In the Best Shape of His Life Award (TM), amiright?

“I’m so proud and thrilled by the way he’s carried himself and handled himself. And I just think there has been a real change in his mind-set, his maturity. And I think his career has become a real priority for him,” Anthopoulos says, perhaps tellingly.

On the subject of Dustin McGowan, however, the GM sounds like he’s drinking a bit of the crazy sauce, explaining that “I’m probably as excited about him as I am about any of our starters.” McGowan is, of course, the guy coming off a three year absence, multiple shoulder surgeries, who walked 13 batters, gave up 20 hits and 15 runs in 21 innings at the end of last season. Twenty strikeouts and a 4.38 xFIP, though! [Note: not sarcasm. No, really.] “I know the numbers don’t look great,” he admits, “but I thought the stuff was outstanding.”

Speaking of nice stuff (as long as, y’know, we’re not talking about the elusive breaking ball), Henderson Alvarez! Anthopoulos expects he will have “a strong year,” mostly “because of his ability to throw strikes. Most times you get sent down because you can’t throw strikes [Note to Kyle Drabek], and one thing we know he’s going to bring is the ability to throw strikes and the ability to get ground balls.”

“We do need some things to break right and we do need help,” he said, adding a hefty dose of realism. “The depth that we do have is all kids, but kids with talent and ceiling and upside. From that standpoint, a year from now we could be talking about a rotation where we have too many guys, which is great. [Note: In-fucking-deed it is] It really changes that fast with the guys we have that would end up on the five-man and then the guys that are right behind them in New Hampshire.”

“Whether or not that depth allows us to translate into more wins remains to be seen,” he said– referring to not just pitchers on the fringe of the 25-man roster, but hitters as well– “but we would hope that the dropoff from our front-line guy to the guy that would be filling in would not be as drastic.”

On the offensive side of things, Anthopoulos says that the club “should be as strong if not stronger than it was last year, and it’s not really going to rely on one guy.” It’s something that gets overlooked by a lot of people ripping the club for a relatively quiet off-season. The mid-season additions of Lawrie, Rasmus, and Johnson will help immensely. And the potential coming-into-his-own of Encarnacion can’t hurt either.

“The fact that we started last season with a lot of right-handed bats was something we wanted to balance out,” Anthopoulos also points out. “Now we have a lot of left-handed bats, so we have a nice blend. Having the right-handed bats coming off the bench, John has some other options and it adds to that depth.”

“There’s upside to all the players,” he says. “But we don’t need everybody to have career years. We need everybody to just be solid and we’re going to have a very good team.”

“You look at the production you get out of centre field on average, I think you’re looking at a low to mid .700 OPS, that’s average across the board. He’s capable of that, no doubt about it and he’s capable of more. He’s done more,” the GM said of Colby Rasmus, as quoted by the Sun. “I know he went through a rough year getting traded, didn’t perform the way he hoped for. I think Yunel Escobar is a great example. Yunel played well right out of the chute, towards the end of the first year he didn’t play as well, but I noticed the following spring, Yunel just felt like he was finally at home and this was finally his team, and I expect Colby to be the same way. We know he has a world of talent and he can only move up from an ability standpoint and a performance standpoint from what he did last year.”

Perhaps most interestingly he said he was very curious about ol’ E5– and in particular, his versatility. “The fact that a guy like Edwin Encarnacion can play third, can play first and we’re going to find out how he does in the outfield during the spring. That’s something I’m really curious about in the spring. It allows us to go with a five-man outfield.”

Sure, why the hell not?

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