Archive for the ‘Keith Law’ Category

Is it because he reads books? What the hell gives, dickholes?

There wasn’t a whole lot of Jays-related content in this week’s Keith Law chat at ESPN.com, as the upcoming Rule 4 draft (i.e. the amateur draft) commanded most of the attention. What was there, however, definitely could use some expanding upon, so… um… I dunno, let’s just do that!

J (toronto)
Drew Hutchison…… in the top 25, where would his relative spot be? Do you like what you have seen out of him so far in the majors? Do you like the fact that the Jays brought him up to the majors?
Klaw
Would not be in the top 25.

KLaw is already on record having said that he thinks Hutchison has been kinda rushed by the Jays, so we know what he thinks on that front, but I suppose that, with all the movement, it is surprising that prospect number 42 on his pre-season Top 100, who is already in the Majors, would be so easily dismissed from the top 25. I don’t know if it’s a ceiling thing, or what, but I guess Hutchison doesn’t get bonus points for being called on to develop under the Big League lights. I don’t think it’s unfair, and… y’know… not having seen anybody who’s ranked higher, who the hell would I be to suggest it isn’t.

RD (Toronto)
Why is Thames still the starting LF!?
Klaw
I have no idea.

This is the question that’s been on the minds of an ever-increasing number of Jays fans this month– we spoke about it on today’s podcast, in fact– and what the answer seems to actually be is that there just isn’t much in the way of viable alternatives. And maybe that’s OK, because, as Drew and I discussed– and maybe Parkes, who the fuck knows?– the Jays’ plan all along has seemed to be to let Thames prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s not actually, seriously a better option than Travis Snider. He’s close to having proven it, I think– his career weighted on-base is now down to .322, within four points of Travis Snider’s .318, and while it’s unfair to say that represents the best of Thames, we certainly can’t feel we’ve seen the best of Snider, despite what an odd category of insufferable, smug twats who want to be first to have called “bust” on him will brainlessly tell you about his ability to hit a Major League fastball, or a Major League slider, or whatever they’ve decided he can’t do– but I actually could live with seeing Thames getting a little more time, just so we can be absolutely certain that it’s time to put this debate to rest and give Snider the keys. Not that we have much of a choice at this point anyway.

And– seriously, we talked about it on the podcast too, but seriously– what the hell was with the bullpen’s utter disinterest in Thames’ injury in the sixth inning of Wednesday’s game against Tampa? Like… I don’t know if we can call that any kind of indication of how Thames is thought about on the team, but… yikes. It was uncomfortable. And yet, he seems so nice! Is it because he’s practically a rookie? Because he reads? Because it’s one of those the bullpen guys don’t care much for the hitters and vice versa things? I don’t know. Weird.

Craig (toronto)
Glad to Aaron Sanchez mentioned in your top 25 article. Good chance he makes your top 50 he continues to perform well?
Klaw
He’d have a better chance if he was allowed to turn a lineup over twice every now and then.

And here’s possibly the maybe kinda big (but not really) one, as we get some rare criticism for… well… for anything related to the big fuck pitching prospects the Jays currently have at Lansing. Obviously the club’s main goal in handling their developing pitchers isn’t to get them onto top prospects lists, but… Law kinda makes a good point about asking them to turn over some more lineups, doesn’t he? It certainly can’t hurt to have these guys starting to see hitters more than once, as they essentially are, with the piggybacking scheme the Jays are following. At the same time, it’s not like they’re not ever going to have their in-game workload stepped up, so… is it really a concern?

I’m about to go record this week’s edition of the Getting Blanked Podcast, so I don’t have much time for preamblin’, except to say that here I’ve got for your raging pleasure the Jays-related tidbits from this week’s Keith Law chat at ESPN.com, including a pair of questions that echo what just about anyone who isn’t wearing fan-blinders will tell you about Henderson Alvarez: that while he’s a very good pitcher, you can’t look at him as a top of the rotation type with such a low strikeout rate, and without a weapon that’s going to miss bats.

Though… as I said last week when Kevin Goldstein apparently incensed people on Twitter by saying that the ceiling for Alvarez is a three– um… that’s pretty fucking good. By nobody’s measure is Ricky Romero anything but a two, so if Alvarez is a three? Yeah, that’s pretty damn good. (Law, as you’ll see, isn’t quite that high on him, even.)

Anyway, here’s that, and the rest…

Kevin (Toronto)
Is it possible that Henderson Alvarez’s pitches have enough movement to sustain a low BABIP, yet not enough movement to increase his K/9 rate?
Klaw
No.

Ryan (Fredericton)
Have you started warming up to Henderson Alvarez as a SP? I think I read previously you thought he was better suited for the bullpen, however IMO he’s been great as a #3 starter
Klaw
I don’t believe I ever called him a pen guy – but he needs a better and more consistent breaking ball to be a starter. Again, check that K rate.

Mike (Toronto)
Is D’arnaud THAT much better than JPA. Would he be better used as a trade chip instead of going through the pains of a rookie C all over again?
Klaw
Yes, he is.

Mike (Toronto)
do you see AA going with BPA [Best Player Available] with the Jay’s picks in the top 60. Any other insight into what the Jays may do?
Klaw
I can’t imagine they veer away from that. They’ve built a great farm system by drafting high-upside guys. Why change now?

Friday! Which is the day after KLaw chat day. Quite a few Jays nuggets, with special attention given to yesterday’s BP report on the Lansing rotation and the unique innings limit in place for the Midwest League affiliate.

Steve (Toronto)
Hi, Given this year’s performance, do you still rank aaron sanchez above nicolino and syndergaard? What’s sanchez’s ceiling?
Klaw
I wouldn’t change their rankings based on two weeks of performance.

Andrew (Toronto)
Who has the higher ceiling between Dwight Smith Jr. and Jacob Anderson?
Klaw
Anderson. Not even close.

Grant (Winnipeg)
Much scorn has been heaped on Baltimore for Bundy’s three inning limits. But Jays are doing the same thing with Sanchez, et al, and they’re a year older. What’s going on there? Isn’t that even crazier than Balt holding Bundy back?
Klaw
Don’t love what the Jays are doing either, but none of those three kids is remotely as advanced as Bundy. Sanchez is only about four months older than Bundy, BTW.

Ari (Toronto)
You were a lot higher on Drew Hutchison than the other publications this winter. After a first glimpse in the majors, can you share any thoughts? To me he looked like a kid with some command but not nearly enough secondary polish to be ready for the big leagues. Are the Jays rushing him?
Klaw
Command wasn’t there on Saturday, at least. Don’t think he’s ready yet, but will be soon enough.

Ari (Toronto)
Bundy & Norris were both top prep arms in the last draft. One is apparently almost MLB ready while the other is still in extended spring. What are the primary differences between them?
Klaw
They weren’t the top two prep arms, though. Had them 20-30 spots apart on my list.

The stuff about the Lansing innings limits is very interesting. Some folks on twitter seemed really angry about the Jays decision to piggyback these young arms, worrying they’ll never build up the required arm strength. While it does seem strange, it is still only April.

Let’s wait and see how the Jays stretch these kids out and what kind of pitch counts they’re running up in August. The results for the three big guns in Low-A are outstanding (with Syndergaard pitching well last night) so let’s not worry until things don’t progress or these young arms stop inducing boners.

Like anyone else, I suppose, I’m somewhat inclined to scream “small sample size” at bad results I don’t believe in, while getting all worked up about people using tiny samples to shit on guys they don’t like, but… oh man, I’m encouraged by what we’ve seen so far from Kyle Drabek (and also, keeping with that line of thinking, if you think Brandon Morrow is now AJ Burnett, Jose Bautista has turned back into a pumpkin, and Jeff Mathis needs to start ahead of JP Arencibia, please show yourself the door before I call you fucking hopeless).

Turns out I’m not the only one, as Keith Law said as much– with the same caveats– in his chat yesterday with readers at ESPN.com, along with several other Jays-related nuggets that I’ve scooped up for your enjoyment…

Klaw
Sorry if I’m a minute late, Arencibia told me I needed another donut.

James (Vero Beach)
Travis Snider: Vegas pumps up numbers, but in a small sample, he’s cut down on Ks. Can this translate at the major league level?
Klaw
I like Snider quite a bit and think his swing changes will lead to better results in the majors. That said, not only is he repeating AAA in a hitter’s park, he’s got more than a season’s worth of ABs facing better quality pitching. This is a step down for him – he should be raking.

Rick (Vancouver)
Keith, do you think you were being a little bit hypocritical when you tweeted about JP earlier? Pretty sure you called Mike McDade “Muffin Top” earlier this year.
Klaw
I made that comment about a specific photo of McDade. I didn’t take a random shot at a reader’s weight, which would be the analogous situation.

Lawrence (Toronto, Canada)
We’re about a dozen games into the season; does anything stand out to you so far?
Klaw
Yes – overreactions to tiny samples are at an all-time high.

Frank (Toronto)
Do you think bringing Hutchison up to be the 5th starter for the Jays is a lot premature?
Klaw
He’s pretty polished, but yeah, this is a lot earlier than I expected. I hope the intent is to keep him up for a while – I don’t like bringing up elite guys for spot starts. I’d have taken Deck McGuire for just a single outing.

John (Canada)
If you had to pick one … Marisnick or Gose as your CFer of the future?
Klaw
Marisnick. Much higher offensive upside. I’ll give back the 5 runs a year on defense (if it’s even that much).

Twitter Etiquette (Non-existent?)
Given we agree that J.P. Arencibia’s comments were childish and immature, where do you stand in regards to media members using twitter to attack/troll athletes? i.e. using the @PlayersTwitterHandle so he sees the offensive tweet
Klaw
I would never do that. Taunting players is inappropriate for fans, never mind for professionals.

Erich (CT)
Do the Jays shift JP off catcher once d’Arnaud arrives? Or do they entertain trading him?
Klaw
Bat won’t play anywhere else. He’s trade bait.

Brandon (Santa Maria, CA)
Henderson Alvarez has great velocity and control. Why doesn’t he miss more bats?
Klaw
Good question. Slider isn’t good enough?

Erich (CT)
Why are people all upset with what JP said? The guy tweeted AT him that he basically sucked. Of course he’s going to take offense to that. Give me a break
Klaw
While I don’t agree with using Arencibia’s handle there, the initial comment was pretty innocuous.

AA (CANADA)
Small sample aside, are you allowing yourself to get excited about Kyle Drabek’s improvements? Samardzija of the AL?
Klaw
Yes. I think it’s real.

OK, so the “Snider for Belt?” bit in the title is a little bit misleading. In Thursday’s chat at ESPN.com, Keith Law did mention that people had been asking him about such a hypothetical, but he actually kinda dismissed it. Still, there were several actual Jays-related nuggets for your enjoyment, …

Justin (Boston)
You’re not going to believe this, but Brandon Belt is not in the Giants lineup today.
Klaw
The problem with all of these “Belt for Snider, who says no?” tweets and questions is that the Giants are much more likely to trade Belt for Jamie Moyer.

Derek (work) [via mobile]
My Thursday afternoon work production has been sharply down for the last two years. thanks. Oh, and Dom Brown for Snider. Good idea?
Klaw
I’d rather have Snider.

Milt (Atltanta)
You recently mentioned a lack of life on Teheran’s fastball. Can you explain? Also, is this relative to where he had been previously, or more general? I know we’re dealing in small samples this year, but something seems off with him. Thanks!
Klaw
It’s straight and up. A fastball can move a lot of ways – it can tail (like a two-seamer, moves to the arm side), cut, run (to the glove side, not sharp like a cutter – you might also hear that called “bore”), sink, or have “late life up in the zone” (think Matt Cain, a ball that never sinks but appears to speed up as it crosses the plate, which I assume is an illusion because it’s not decelerating as expected). Teheran’s fastball doesn’t cut, run, bore, or sink, and it doesn’t have life up. It’s real hard and real true. I’d love to see him try a two-seamer – could be 92-93 with tail, and then you’ve really got something.

Drabek’s switch to two-seamers and cutters over the last year is a reaction to the lack of life on his fastball.

Don (Quad Cities)
At what point would you feel comfortable giving up on Rasmus’ tools and say this is the player he is? He’s been in a funk for a long time now.
Klaw
End of this season. Feel the same way on Smoak. If those guys don’t turn it around this year, they’re not “done,” but I’ll concede.

Steve (Fl)
Whats your prediction for Marisnick? Future All-Star or next Snider? (afterall, he is in the Blue jays organization)
Klaw
Future All-Star. I don’t think the Jays have some horrible track record that it’s fair to make the parenthetical comment. Snark should be earned.

Jeff (Calgary)
Feel like answering one more before you take off? Sanchez has the fastball/curve combo, but worse results. Syndergaard had the fastball/change combo with better results. What makes you like the upside for Sanchez (who hit 98 this week) better?
Klaw
Much, much harder to teach (or find) a breaking ball than a changeup. And Sanchez does have a change.