Archive for the ‘Post-Game Post’ Category

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I’m thinking this one deserves a picture at the top, rather than just a graph (which you can still see alongside a filthy slider curveball GIF via @dshemie8, after the jump), because Marcus Stroman.

Marcus Stroman.

Sure, the Jays’ offence took advantage of some poor Royals pitcher’s self-immolation, but Marcus Stroman. Theeeeeeere’s what we were looking for and kept telling every cretin it was stupid to stop dreaming on after 6.1 not-so-hot innings spread over a few stints out of the big league bullpen. Six innings, five hits, no walks, one run, six strikeouts. Ninety-four pitches, sixty three for strikes. Most importantly of all, perhaps, is that he kept the ball on the ground, producing a ground ball rate as high as any qualified starter in baseball (64.7% on the day; only Dallas Keuchel’s 66.5% is better among qualified starters). It’s just one game, I know, and it’s just the Royals, but that’s what he had to do, and he fuckin’ did it!

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See, now this is probably going to be a lot more representative of how half-assed these are going to be than the last one. The Jays lost tonight to Jason Vargas and the fucking Royals. Some stuff happened. J.A. Happ was probably left in too long, but he at least saved the bullpen enough so that Marcus Stroman can join the rotation tomorrow, ostensibly for just one spot start, but… come on! Drew Hutchison has been pushed to Tuesday (though don’t necessarily quote me on that), which I suppose lends credence to the whole idea that it wasn’t just for Dustin McGowan’s benefit that John Gibbons openly toyed with the idea of going to a six-man rotation back at the start of this month. Can’t hurt to keep Hutchison as fresh as possible, and to limit his innings for a potentially deep run in October (we didn’t stop believing that because of a second straight loss, did we?), and to give Stroman a springboard from which to dive headlong into the rotation conversation. So… this game hurt (y’know… I assume — I barely fucking watched it after the Bautista home run, though I do know that reading some of the many dumb comments on the post below was pretty painful — HEYO!), but it’s all still good (provided nothing more ominous is happening with Hutch that what I’m suggesting). And — holy shit! — Stroman tomorrow!

I can live with that.

 

Image/chart via FanGraphs.

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Holy shit, would you look at that graph. Jays’ win expectancy was at 96.2% after Jose Bautista awesomely Larry Walker’d Billy Butler at first base on a hot shot single to right field in the top of the ninth. Almost like these sorts of things — especially when involving playoff odds, FYI — are kinda entirely dumbly meaningless. I mean, they’re probably not wrong, they’re just utterly useless things for anyone to bother clinging to. Hey, but nice formulas all the same, they just can’t predict that shitty Jose Reyes throw that should have ended it! And it was that throw — not, as some harping morons directing their ire towards John Gibbons would have you believe — that’s really the only reason the Jays lost today, technically. Gibbons did fine enough. He’d managed his club to a win if not for that one unfortunate play. But — and I recognize that this is far easier to say at the back end of nine straight wins — things like that happen. It’s OK. (Still sucks, though, obviously).

Shit, amazingly it actually looked like they were going to do it again and keep the streak going. In fact, I captured the moment when Edwin Encarnacion astonishingly put the Jays up for what should have been good, focusing my camera on his presence at the plate and pressing the button when James Shields released the ball, resulting in a bit of Instagram magic. Gold!

But I digress. This thing is already longer than what I wanted it to be, because I really wanted to established a precedent where I could totally mail in a post-game post every day, without having to think too much about what actually went on during the game. Just a graph and couple snarky or buoyant comments, basically. Because my intention is to keep these things going, either throughout the season, or at least throughout the stretch here before the Jays fail miserably and render themselves once again irrelevant — we’re allowed to talk about that possibility now that they’ve finally lost again, right? — and if we’re being honest, to do that they’re so going to have to really be mailed in.

So… yeah. This is your newfangled post-game post. Don’t expect nearly as much rambling in the future. (But also, if you’re like super into rambling, FYI, check out a transcript of what Alex Anthopoulos said to reporters about payroll bullshit today). (Also also: if they had a chart for umpire bullshit, just imagine the spike for that ridiculous hit-by-pitch that was entirely a strike, eh?).

 

Image/chart via FanGraphs.

Sept 2nd v Diamondbacks

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.56 -0.058
Goins – 2B 0.54 -0.036
Encarnacion – 1B 0.44 0.037
Lawrie – 3B 0.51 -0.055
Sierra – RF 0.52 0.005 Pitcher pLI WPA
Thole – C 0.58 -0.059 Rogers – SP 1.04 0.345
Pillar – LF 0.69 0.071 Santos – RP 2.86 0.113
Gose – CF 0.67 0.075 Delabar – RP 1.79 0.095
Rogers – P 0.81 -0.044 Loup – RP 0.82 -0.074
Santos – P 0.41 -0.010 Janssen – RP 2.76 0.094
Total 0.57 -0.073 Total 1.36 0.573

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!
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Aug 21 v Yankees

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.97 -0.053
DeRosa – 2B 1.35 -0.107
Davis – RF/CF 1.22 -0.025
Encarnacion – DH 0.90 -0.089
Lind – 1B 1.10 -0.021
Lawrie – 3B 1.37 -0.031
Thole – C 1.56 0.040
Pillar – LF 1.33 -0.010
Gose – CF 1.19 -0.060
Sierra – PH/RF 2.74 0.013 Pitcher pLI WPA
Kawasaki – 2B/SS 1.85 -0.056 Dickey – SP 1.16 -0.101
Total 1.32 -0.399 Total 1.16 -0.101

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!
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August 20 vs Yankees Game 1

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.79 0.086
Davis – CF / RF 1.12 0.037
Bautista – RF 0.85 -0.015
Gose – CF 0.98 -0.020
Encarnacion – DH 0.96 0.002
Lind – 1B 1.46 0.060 Pitcher pLI WPA
Lawrie – 3B 2.04 -0.078 Rogers – SP 0.95 -0.047
Izturis – 2B 1.09 0.084 Cecil – RP 2.53 0.059
Thole – C 1.07 -0.165 Wagner – RP 1.70 -0.415
Pillar – LF 0.70 -0.034 Weber – RP 0.28 -0.054
Total 1.13 -0.043 Total 0.87 -0.457

Bests / Worsts of the game(s) after the jump! Read the rest of this entry »

August 14 v Red Sox

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.82 -0.104
Davis – CF 0.85 0.278
Bautista – RF 0.92 -0.018
Encarnacion – 1B 2.08 0.103
Lawrie – 3B 1.46 0.105
DeRosa – DH 1.12 0.032 Pitcher pLI WPA
Lind – PH / DH 0.13 0.004 Rogers – SP 1.09 0.245
Arencibia – C 0.93 0.044 Wagner – RP 0.97 0.151
Pillar – LF 1.18 -0.130 Cecil – RP 2.21 -0.454
Kawasaki – 2B  0.96 -0.071 Lincoln – RP 3.75 0.317
Total 1.16 0.241 Total 1.68 0.259

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump! Read the rest of this entry »