Castrol Index
With the popularity of Prozone, Actim Stats, The Guardian’s Chalkboards, Soccernomics and Opta Joe’s Twitter account, it seems to me, anecdotally at least, like the public’s desire is growing for statistical data that accurately measures the performances of individual players.
With that thought in mind, I give you the Castrol Index, which bills itself as a definitive system for rating the world’s best players.
Apparently Arsene Wenger uses it – or at least claims to. Here’s how it works:
So does this ranking system pass the “smell test”?
Let’s look at the latest offering from January 11th. Cristiano Ronaldo as the number one player in Europe makes sense. Thierry Henry seems high to me at two, but the player tied with him, Leo Messi, isn’t going to cause too many arguments. Now, I rate Gerard Pique very, very highly, but fourth in Europe high? Not sure about that. Although I like that ranking a heckuva lot better than I like Ivica Olic at 20, which will cast some serious doubts on the system’s methods.
Here’s the top three players in each league the Castrol Index tracks:
Spain – Cristiano Ronaldo, Thierry Henry, Lionel Messi,
England – Fernando Torres, Andrey Arshavin, Edwin Van Der Sar
Italy – Samuel Eto’o, Lucio, Vincenzo Iaquinta
France – Yoann Gourcouff, Cedric Carrasso, Marc Planus
Germany – Daniel Van Buyten, Edin Dzeko, Mario Gomez
I’m all for the statistical revolution in soccer, but I feel we’ll never be able to measure players as accurately as we can in baseball due to the fluidity of the sport. As an example, how can we measure a player who makes an intelligent run off the ball to open up space for a teammate in possession? Still, there is plenty of room for hard data to creep into the mainstream’s evaluation of professional players.
Nate Silver’s Soccer Power Index
Sticking with the ranking theme, Nate Silver, the American statistician who worked for Baseball Prospectus and developed the PECOTA player forecasting system, has created the Soccer Power Index, a ranking designed to provide the best possible objective representation of an international team’s current overall skill level.
“If you had to bet your life on a soccer match, you would use SPI and not FIFA,” Silver told the Wall Street Journal. Although he did admit there is some fuzziness in the system due to a lack of statistics.
“In soccer, unless someone’s scoring, gets a red card, or is substituted, there’s often no record for it,” Silver said. “It’s good for what it is, but it’s intrinsically limited by the lack of numbers in soccer.”
Brazil is currently number one in the SPI. Canada sits 64th, seven spots lower than their position in FIFA’s rankings.
Fighting for Canadian Supremacy
Good news for Canadian soccer fans. Sam — who you may know from his work at The Canadian Stretford End — has launched a blog exclusively devoted to the Nutrilite Canadian Championship called Fighting For Canadian Supremacy.
Sam says he’ll be running the blog alongside other writers from across the country, with a goal of bringing us the most up to date news, information and opinions on the tournament. Instant bookmark.
Arjen Robben Underpants Update
Last week we linked you up to the story of the German football federation’s displeasure with the grey long johns Bayern Munich winger Arjen Robben had been wearing underneath his shorts. Bayern sporting director Christian Nerlinger said the underpants – which admittedly did make Robben look like some hacker at a YMCA pickup game – would either have to be dyed, or the Dutch star would have to find another pair since the powers-that-be wanted them to be red.
Well, the ex-Chelsea and Real Madrid star broke down and conformed to the governing body’s policy, switching from baggy grey to skin tight red Saturday at Wolfsburg. It didn’t seem to affect Robben’s form, as he scored just two minutes into the game.
When Canada Dry Sponsored PSG
Imagine the enormous swelling of Canadian pride that filled me up this morning when I came across this retro 1973 Paris St. Germain top on Toffs.
The contract with Canada Dry ginger ale to sponsor PSG’s shirts, according to Toffs, was negotiated by Bernard Brochand, a young publicist who later became the president of the PSG Association and is currently mayor of Cannes.
It’s not a bad little top, and affordable at 28 bucks American.
Anyone else have any strange, unique or interesting shirt sponsor deals? The time Super Furry Animals sponsored Cardiff City immediately comes to my mind.
I like the fact that stats don’t play a large role in evaluating a player in football. It allows for more opinions to be expressed. I don’t like the desire to stick stats everywhere. As you pointed out how can a stat be places on some aspects of the game?
Baseball gets so micro-managed because of stats. I’d hate to see football become that way. Trying to force statistics on the game would be the begining of the end of “the beautiful game”. Imagine Arsene Wenger retires and Arsenal announces JP Riccardi as their next manager.
Hey, I found this tidbit for dunlop…
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010_swimsuit/painting/bethany-dempsey/
The Castrol thing is a load of crap. How do you determine an “increase” in scoring probability? That’s a really fuzzy thing to pin down. What about defenders? Do they get points for decreasing an opponents opportunity? What about doing something great in the low scoring middle? Or a simple 50/50 win that 15 passes later turns into a goal?
I understand the concept, but trying to measure things like scoring probablity are impossible in a fliud game. At least prozone sticks to concrete things like distance and area of play, and leaves the interpretation up to the user.
You may as well just sim it on your xbox (which apparently they did). And the strange fancy lad endorsment at the end doesn’t do it any favours.
I’m sure there is some use for the stats for managers but I hate shit-talkers who go around doing nothing but citing stats because they think it makes them “knowledgeable” “smart”…..
Surprised about the excitement regarding a Nutrilite blog.
Arjen looks ridiculous but when you’re that good it doesn’t matter.
Thank you Joe for updating us on the Arjen Robben long johns situation, couldnt be happier.