The quarterfinals of the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations are starting to come into focus with five of the eight spots already claimed and the first of the four brackets now completed.
A Christopher Katongo goal in the 68th minute against Equatorial Guinea was all Zambia needed to win Group A and progress to the next round for the second tournament in a row. The Copper Bullets went out on penalties to Nigeria two years ago in Angola and, assuming Ivory Coast don’t lose to Angola on Monday, will avoid a difficult showdown with the Les Elephants at the quarterfinal stage this time around.
The Ivorians, for their part, have started slowly at this competition with modest wins against Sudan and Burkina Faso. Those victories have them assured of a spot in the next round, although whether they face Zambia or Equatorial Guinea will be decided when they face Angola, who will give their defense its stiffest test of the campaign to date.
Angola looked impressive in beating Burkina Faso last weekend but made their own journey to the quarterfinals more bumpy when they conceded a 74th minute equaliser against Sudan on Thursday. A Sudan win against Burkina Faso, Monday, combined with an Angola loss to Ivory Coast—at a combined goal difference of -3 or worse for Angola—would see Sudan nick a quarterfinal berth on the final day of Group B play. The Jediane Falcons haven’t advanced from their bracket at a Cup of Nations since 1970, when they won the whole thing.
Group C is considerably more straightforward. Gabon and Tunisia have already qualified for the next round by winning their first two matches against Morocco and Niger. All that’s left is for them to face each other, which will happen Tuesday in Franceville. A draw is good enough for Gabon to win the section, as the co-hosts have a slightly superior goal difference. They were also involved in one of the most fascinating group stage matches in Cup of Nations history last week when, after trading second half stoppage time goals with Morocco, they emerged 3-2 winners in a thrilling contest in Libreville.
It’s in Group D that things get complicated—where each of the four sides still have everything to play for. Even Ghana, with two wins from two and a positive goal difference of three, aren’t safe heading into the final day. A loss to a very good Guinea side on Wednesday, coupled with a Mali win over Botswana—at a combined goal difference of -4 or worse for Ghana—would see the Black Stars go out and Guinea and Mali go through.
Not that it’s likely to happen. For the first time at this Cup of Nations Ghana will be able to use its preferred central defensive partnership on Wednesday. John Mensah, who was sent off against Botswana in the Black Stars’ first match, has served his ban, and Isaac Vorsah is available as well after sitting out the first two matches of the tournament with a suspension handed down during qualification. Even a narrow lost against Guinea, who got a pair of goals from Bastia striker Sadio Diallo in Saturday’s 6-1 thrashing of Botswana, would be enough for Ghana to progress, and at this point it looks to be Mali who have an inside track on second place in the group.
So here’s what we know: Gabon and Tunisia are through and will play their quarterfinal matches against the sides that progress from Group D—likely Ghana and Mali. On the other side of the draw Zambia and Equatorial Guinea have qualified and will get Ivory Coast and either Angola or Sudan in the last eight.
In other words, the Ghana-Ivory Coast dream final is still very much alive, although the difference between those two heavyweights and the six other sides that will round out the quarterfinal stage is minimal, as we’ll likely see when the knockout round begins on Saturday. The Cup of Nations rarely delivers the predicted championship match, and for this instalment to go against the rule both teams will have to overcome some yet unknown adversity in the next two weeks. It should be quite the ride.
