Context is King, vol. MCMXXIX


Former Baseball Prospectus boss Nate Silver created a sweet little niche for himself in recent years, using his mathematical know-how to predict elections (among other things) by weighing various polls to create a statistically-informed opinion of how popular votes should shake down.

Weighting the credibility of each poll is key as certain selection biases and wordings can skew results. With that in mind, I don’t think the L.A. Times’ “Who Will Win the NL Cy Young” poll carries much weight in Mr. Silver’s eyes.

I liberally borrowed the code from the Times but, as you can see, the good people of Southern California carefully considered the choices, placing appropriate ballpark factors and quality of competition (i.e. facing the Giants half a dozen times)into proper context before making their final, solemn decision.

For argument’s sake, let’s consider Roy Halladay starting half his games at Dodger Stadium against the Padreses of the world. Wow, that was mildly pleasurable. I can’t even lie.

Vote Doc.