Turning the prognosticator’s eye towards the NL West.

San Francisco Giants

2011 record: 86-76; 2nd in NL West
Manager: Bruce Bochy
General Manager: Brian Sabean
2012 estimated Payroll: $136.2 million
Odds to win the division: even
Odds to win the National League: 8-1
Odds to win the World Series: 16/1
Over / Under total for wins in 2012: 88
Highest Paid Player: Barry Zito $19 million
Key 2013 free agents: 2B Freddy Sanchez, OF Melky Cabrera, OF Angel Pagan, P Matt Cain
Highest projected 2012 fWAR: Pablo Sandoval 5.9
Canadians in camp: none
Division Crowns since 1995: 4

Welcome aboard: OF Melky Cabrera, OF Angel Pagan, INF Ryan Theriot, RHP Clay Hensley, RHP Ramon Ortiz

Thanks for the memories: RF Carlos Beltran, CF Andres Torres, RHP Ramon Ramirez, OF Cody Ross, OF Pat Burrell.

Los Angeles Dodgers

2011 record: 82-79; 3rd in NL West
Manager: Don Mattingly
General Manager: Ned Colletti
2012 estimated Payroll: $103.3 million
Odds to win the division: 4-1
Odds to win the National League: 15-1
Odds to win the World Series: 30/1
Over / Under total for wins in 2012: 82
Highest Paid Player: Andre Ethier $10.9 million
Key 2013 free agents: OF Andre Ethier, 1B James Loney
Highest projected 2012 fWAR: Clayton Kershaw 6.2
Canadians in camp: P Blake Hawksworth
Division Crowns since 1995: 4

Welcome aboard: 2B Mark Ellis, LF Juan Rivera, 2B Adam Kennedy, LHP Chris Capuano, INF-OF Jerry Hairston Jr., RHP Aaron Harang, RHP Mike MacDougal, C Matt Treanor, RHP Todd Coffey.

Thanks for the memories: RHP Hiroki Kuroda, RHP Jonathan Broxton, RHP Vicente Padilla, 3B Casey Blake, SS Jamey Carroll, C Rod Barajas, LHP Hong-Chih Kuo, LHP Dana Eveland, RHP Jon Garland.

Colorado Rockies

2011 record: 73-89; 4th in NL West
Manager: Jim Tracy
General Manager: Dan O’Dowd
2012 estimated Payroll: $98.2 million
Odds to win the division: 8-1
Odds to win the National League: 17-1
Odds to win the World Series: 33/1
Over / Under total for wins in 2012: 81.5
Highest Paid Player: Michael Cuddyer $10.5 million
Key 2013 free agents: INF Marco Scutaro, P Jeremy Guthrie
Highest projected 2012 fWAR: Troy Tulowitzki 7.7
Canadians in camp: P Dustin Molleken
Division Crowns since 1995: 0

Welcome aboard: RHP Jeremy Guthrie, OF Michael Cuddyer, 2B Marco Scutaro, C Ramon Hernandez, 3B Casey Blake, RHP Tyler Chatwood, RHP Guillermo Moscoso, LHP Josh Outman, OF Tyler Colvin, LHP Jamie Moyer, INF D.J. LeMahieu.

Thanks for the memories: RHP Huston Street, RHP Jason Hammel, RHP Matt Lindstrom, OF Seth Smith, C Chris Iannetta, 3B Ian Stewart, RHP Casey Weathers, RHP Clayton Mortensen.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2011 record: 94-68, 1st in NL West
Manager: Kirk Gibson
General Manager: Kevin Towers
2012 estimated Payroll: $77.9 million
Odds to win the division: 2-1
Odds to win the National League: 12-1
Odds to win the World Series: 25/1
Over / Under total for wins in 2012: 86.5
Highest Paid Player: Stephen Drew $7.75 million
Key 2013 free agents: C Miguel Montero,
Highest projected 2012 fWAR: Justin Upton 6.6
Canadians in camp: none
Division Crowns since 1995: 5

Welcome aboard: OF Jason Kubel, RHP Trevor Cahill, LHP Craig Breslow, RHP Takashi Saito, RHP Jonathan Albaladejo.

Thanks for the memories: OF-1B Xavier Nady, LHP Zach Duke, OF Colin Cowgill, SS Josh Wilson, 3B Sean Burroughs, RHP Jarrod Parker, RHP Esmerling Vasquez.

San Diego Padres

2011 record: 71-91; 5th in NL West
Manager: Bud Black
General Manager: Josh Byrnes
2012 estimated Payroll: $64.8 million
Odds to win the division: 28-1
Odds to win the National League: 55-1
Odds to win the World Series: 100/1
Over / Under total for wins in 2012: 73.5
Highest Paid Player: Huston Street $7.5 million
Key 2013 free agents: OF Carlos Quentin
Highest projected 2012 fWAR: Cameron Maybin 3.9
Canadians in camp: none
Division Crowns since 1995: 4

Welcome aboard: LF Carlos Quentin, 1B Yonder Alonso, RHP Huston Street, RHP Edinson Volquez, RHP Micah Owings, RHP Andrew Cashner, C John Baker.

Thanks for the memories: RHP Heath Bell, RHP Mat Latos, 1B Anthony Rizzo.

Synopsis

To have a chance of winning the West, the Giants would need Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain to once again carry the pitching staff with the offense scoring at least four runs a more consistently. The Dodgers would need the ownership issues to be sorted out by May, and Matt Kemp would need help from Andre Ethier and James Loney on the offensive side all season. The Rockies would need a better year than the 2011 campaign out of Carlos Gonzalez, a injury free year out of Troy Tulowitzki, a good return from their investment with Michael Cuddyer, along with a young pitching staff that must give the team six innings or more each time out. The Diamondbacks would need to repeat on all the luck from 2011, including, Ian Kennedy winning 21 games, Justin Upton playing like an MVP, and another season full of unthinkable comebacks, and the Padres would need their TV money to kick in April with the team making deals for players like Jose Bautista, CC Sabathia and Joey Votto, so basically, they must wait until at least 2013.

2012 Predictions:

San Francisco Giants 90-72
Los Angeles Dodgers 86-76
Colorado Rockies 82-80
Arizona Diamondbacks 79-83
San Diego Padres 69-93

Sources: bet365.com, fanGraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com

Comments (3)

  1. “Highest Paid Player: Barry Zito $19 million”…. *snicker*

  2. I think the D-Backs are better than that…. but that’s mostly because I feel about the same about Justin Upton as Drew does about Mikeiancarlo Stanton.

  3. I like how you used the best position players on all the teams except the Giants.

    See, what I’m saying is, less Brian Wilson please.

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