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The St. Louis Cardinals dismantled Madison Bumgarner in Game One of the National League Championship Series, and while you could say the very same thing about the San Francisco Giants and their handling of Lance Lynn, this fact weighs heavier on the Giants, not only because the team lost the game 6-4, but also because Bumgarner represents the team’s second best starter coming into the series. Lynn, wasn’t even selected for the four man rotation for the Cardinals National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals. The only reason he finds himself in it now is because of the injury that Jaime Garcia suffered in Game Two of the NLDS.

The right-handed heavy lineup of St. Louis likely wouldn’t represent the best matchup for the left-handed Bumgarner at the best of times, but his repertoire looked especially hittable last night, and he was punished early. If there’s any good news to draw from the series opener for San Francisco, it’s that a very different pitcher will be taking the mound for the team tonight in right-handed starter Ryan Vogelsong. The Cardnals will counter with Chris “Big Carp” Carpenter, making only his fifth start of the season after a shoulder injury kept him sidelined since the beginning of the year.

Vogelsong will be challenged by the exact same St. Louis batting order that gave Bumgarner fits on Sunday night. While the Giants starter typically pitches better against right-handed batters, the Cardinals lineup employs a left-handed hitter at the top of the lineup in Jon Jay, who is followed by a pretty good switch-hitter by the name of Charlie Beltran. The rest of the order may consist of a lot of righties, but they typically do better than expected against right-handed pitchers. In fact, after the Colorado Rockies, the Cardinals have the best team wOBA against RHP in the National League.

Carpenter also faces the same lineup that his teammate went up against on Sunday. Generally speaking, the Giants were an average hitting team against RHP this season, but they tend to swing a lot, which we’d normally assume to play into Carpenter’s cutter use and create a lot of ground balls. However, in the small sample of his appearances so far this season, Big Carp hasn’t been able to keep the ball on the ground, and so it’s difficult to even offer an educated guess as to what will happen tonight, with the first pitch scheduled for 8:07 PM ET.

Here are the starting lineups:

St. Louis Cardinals
1. Jon Jay (L) CF
2. Carlos Beltran (S) RF
3. Matt Holliday (R) LF
4. Allen Craig (R) 1B
5. Yadier Molina (R) C
6. David Freese (R) 3B
7. Daniel Descalso (L) 2B
8. Pete Kozma (R) SS
9. Chris Carpenter (R) P

San Francisco Giants
1. Angel Pagan (S) CF
2. Marco Scutaro (R) 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B
4. Buster Posey (R) C
5. Hunter Pence (R) RF
6. Brandon Belt (L) 1B
7. Gregor Blanco (L) LF
8. Brandon Crawford (L) SS
9. Ryan Vogelsong (R) P

Here are the starting pitcher repertoires for the 2012 season:

RHP Ryan Vogelsong (via Brooks Baseball):

RHP Chris Carpenter (via Brooks Baseball):

Notice how “backwards” Vogelsong uses his repertoire in comparison to the typical starter. He’s almost as likely to start a batter off with a breaking or off speed pitch as he is a harder pitch. While San Francisco fans should be properly terrified by the idea of Vogelsong leaving a hanging curve up in the strike zone against a powerful Cardinals lineup, he should be able to get away with using his change up a little more often than he usually would against a right-handed batter.

Carpenter has a more typical approach with his opening pitches, but remember that this data should be taken with a grain of salt as it represents only four appearances during the regular season. It is interesting to note that throughout Carpenter’s career, he’s shown a willingness to pitch a lot of cutters to right-handed batters. In an admittedly small sample, both Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval have excelled against cut fastballs coming from right-handed pitchers. So, watch to see if Carpenter adapts to this, or if the two batters in the middle of the Giants lineup are able to capitalize on Carpenter’s offerings.