The Toronto Blue Jays clearly won the 12-player blockbuster trade with the Miami Marlins. Odds makers even thinks as much, dropping their World Series odds from 100-1 just two weeks ago down to 9-1.

After the trade became official, we saw a version of what the Jays lineup will look like come opening day in 2013. But what about the Marlins lineup? Fans are upset with the fire sale, upset with Jeffrey Loria, but let’s be realistic here. The Marlins have to actually write out a lineup card on opening day against the Nationals in Washington, whether they want to or not.

What will lineup look like? Who will be the starting five?

When you actually look at the projected lineup you wonder if the team will even come close to 60 wins. Just to compare, the Houston Astros, who are in a ton of trouble this year moving to the American League West, have similiar issues with their lineup and may struggle to come close to their 55 win season of 2012.

Marlins projected lineup (with 2012 stats) Astros projected lineup (with 2012 stats)
1. LF – Juan Pierre: .307/.351/.371 1. 2B – Jose Altuve: .290/.340/.399
2. CF – Justin Ruggiano: .313/.374/.535 2. SS – Jed Lowrie: .244/.331/.438
3. 1B – Logan Morrison: .230/.308/.399 3. 1B – Brett Wallace: .253/.323/.424
4. RF – Giancarlo Stanton: .290/.361/.608 4. DH – Matt Dominguez: .284/.310/.477
5. 3B – Yunel Escobar: .253/.300/.344 5. LF – Fernando Martinez: .237/.300/.466
6.2B – Donovan Solano: .295/.342/.375 6. 3B – Tyler Greene: .230/.274/.400
7. C – Rob Brantly: .290/.372/.460 7. RF – J.D. Martinez: .241/.311/.375
8. SS – Adeiny Hechavarria: .254/.280/.365 8. C – Jason Castro: .257/.334/.401
9. Pitcher Spot 9. CF – Justin Maxwell: .229/.304/.460

Note: The Marlins are thinking of moving Escobar to third, but have also reportedly been discussing him in trades with other clubs.

It’s hard to believe that two major league lineups might not even be the best in most Double-A games. (minus Stanton of course!)

Marlins Projected rotation (with 2012 stats) Astros Projected Rotation (with 2012 stats)
 1. Ricky Nolasco: 4.48 ERA / 3.76 FIP  1. Bud Norris: 4.65 ERA / 4.23 FIP
 2. Henderson Alvarez: 4.85 ERA / 5.18 FIP  2. Lucas Harrell: 3.76 ERA / 3.75 FIP
 3. Wade LeBlanc: 3.67 ERA / 4.04 FIP  3. Jordan Lyles: 5.09 ERA / 4.53 FIP
 4. Nate Eovaldi: 4.30 ERA / 4.13 FIP  4. Dallas Keuchel: 5.27 ERA / 5.74 FIP
 5. Jacob Turner: 4.42 ERA / 4.79 FIP  5. Jarred Cosart: 2.60 ERA / 2.98 FIP (AAA)

Note: If the Marlins deal Nolasco, Alvarez will be the #1 starter? For the Astros, Norris and Harrell can compete against the new division rivals – Angels, Mariners, Athletics and Rangers – but unless they upgrade 3 through 5, it’s going to be a long year, new uniforms and all.

Comments (12)

  1. Jose Altuve hit .290, just as a heads up. Keep up the good work. Awesome blog. Fucking love it.

  2. thanks…fixed

  3. Alvarez a #2.. wow, that says something about their staff

    • I could see Alvarez playing a lot better in the NL, and in a pitchers’ park, but, yeah, number two is certainly stretching it.

  4. ‘stros look worse. alvarez, turner and eovaldi have nice upside, lomo and giancarlo are big bats in the middle of the lineup…

  5. Just more of a comment…There is no chance Dominguez plays DH. Guy’s a stud defensively at the hot corner. The Astros WILL be bringing in a full time DH.

    GO STROS!!! And their awesome new/”old” jerseys

  6. In the words of Major League: “these guys don’t look to F*ckin’ good!” (Somehow I doubt 2013 will mimic the outcome of the film for either of these teams)

  7. good post, I have a bizarre fascination with the terrible teams full of intriguing longshot dudes. Watched far too many HOU games this year. Couple notes:

    - Dominguez’s entire value is wrapped up with his 3b defense. I can see HOU going with a Berkman-type rental DH or Scott Moore as an inhouse solution. Brandon Laird is another bat-first IF who didn’t really have a defined home with the Yankees who could be fun off of the bench or as DH. and it’s probably more realistic that some of the lower-ceiling, high-floor, more MLB-ready guys the Astros have acquire (Wieland, R. Owens, R. Rasmussen, P. Clemens, B. Obertholtzer) will probably fill out the 4th and 5th spots in their rotation, with Keuchel being the wildcard.

    - Miami’s plight is made even worse because they’ll be relying on a couple guys who had pretty good seasons – Ruggiano, Solano, and Brantly, in particular – to not regress back to their mean. Their lineup could look even worse if these guys take a step back from their productive 2012 years. Some interesting depth names/guys off of the bench to watch – Gorkys Hernandez, Zach Cox, and the Chris Coghlan rehabilitation project. and Carlos Zambrano is till kicking around, will probably take LeBlanc’s spot in the rotation? Just looking at their depth chart, their BP has to be considered one of their biggest holes – Cishek, Webb, Dunn, Dan Jennings, Chris Hatcher…and? not a tonne of bubble/4-A guys to fill holes in the BP either.

    I think I’ll be watching way too many FLO and HOU games…

  8. no, the slugging percentages don’t look good, but i;m seeing a lot of guys with healthy to very healthy obp. i suspect the marlins’ lineup, for instance, have more 350+ obp batters than the jays’ – correct me if i’m wrong.

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