The National League East will likely be a three-horse race in 2013 between the Nationals, Braves, and Phillies. The Braves made headlines this off-season when they acquired Justin Upton, but will their pitching be good enough to keep them in contention all season?
In case you missed it, we covered the projected rotations for the:
National League West and National League Central
Now let’s look at how the rotations will potentially look come opening day in the NL East.
Washington Nationals
| 2012 Opening Day Rotation | 2013 Projected Rotation |
| 1. Stephen Strasburg: 15-6, 3.16 ERA, 2.82 FIP | 1. Stephen Strasburg: 17-6, 2.68 ERA, 2.33 FIP |
| 2. Gio Gonzalez: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 2.82 FIP | 2. Gio Gonzalez: 14-8, 3.21 ERA, 3.43 FIP |
| 3. Jordan Zimmermann: 12-8, 2.94 ERA, 3.51 FIP | 3. Jordan Zimmermann: 13-8, 3.32 ERA, 3.38 FIP |
| 4. Edwin Jackson: 10-11, 4.03 ERA, 3.85 FIP | 4. Dan Haren: 15-9, 3.47 ERA, 3.51 FIP |
| 5. Ross Detwiler: 10-8, 3.40 ERA, 4.04 FIP | 5. Ross Detwiler: 10-10, 3.98 ERA, 3.82 FIP |
Thoughts: The Nationals 2013 projected rotation has just one noticeable change from 2012, Haren is in for Jackson. The big news out of Washington is the 200 plus inning expectation from phenom Stephen Strasburg. No innings limits on the kid is just scary news for the rest of the league.
Atlanta Braves
| 2012 Opening Day Rotation | 2013 Projected Rotation |
| 1. Tommy Hanson: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 4.57 FIP | 1. Tim Hudson: 12-9, 3.36 ERA, 3.71 FIP |
| 2. Jair Jurrjens: 3-4, 6.89 ERA, 5.64 FIP | 2. Kris Medlen: 14-7, 2.94 ERA, 2.80 FIP |
| 3. Mike Minor: 11-10, 4.12 ERA, 4.38 FIP | 3. Mike Minor: 11-10, 3.76 ERA, 3.84 FIP |
| 4. Brandon Beachy: 5-5, 2.00 ERA, 3.49 FIP | 4. Paul Maholm: 10-12, 4.00 ERA, 3.97 FIP |
| 5. Randall Delgado: 4-9, 4.37 ERA, 4.07 FIP | 5. Julio Teheran: 7-9, 4.23 ERA, 4.05 FIP |
Thoughts: The 2012 season started without Tim Hudson due to injury and the Braves will have to deal with that again in 2013, this time with Brandon Beachy. The right-hander is targeting a mid-June return after Tommy John surgery. If Julio Teheran struggles early, the Braves may turn to rookie left-hander Sean Gilmartin.
Philadelphia Phillies
| 2012 Opening Day Rotation | 2013 Projected Rotation |
| 1. Roy Halladay: 11-8, 4.49 ERA, 3.69 FIP | 1. Roy Halladay: 15-11, 3.21 ERA, 3.10 FIP |
| 2. Joe Blanton: 10-13, 4.71 ERA, 3.91 FIP | 2. Cliff Lee: 15-10, 3.17 ERA, 2.95 FIP |
| 3. Vance Worley: 6-9, 4.20 ERA, 3.85 FIP | 3. Cole Hamels: 14-10, 3.23 ERA, 3.36 FIP |
| 4. Cole Hamels: 17-6, 3.05 ERA, 3.30 FIP | 4. Kyle Kendrick: 8-12, 4.25 ERA, 4.58 FIP |
| 5. Cliff Lee: 6-9, 3.16 ERA, 3.13 FIP | 5. John Lannan: 2-4, 4.58 ERA, 4.38 FIP |
Thoughts: The rotation was a little off to start 2012 due to an oblique injury to Cliff Lee. The Phillies added Lannan to the rotation to compliment the ‘big three’. The Phillies need a healthy Halladay this year to stay in competition with the Braves and Nationals.
New York Mets
| 2012 Opening Day Rotation | 2013 Projected Rotation |
| 1. Johan Santana: 6-9, 4.85 ERA, 4.09 FIP | 1. Johan Santana: 11-9, 3.50 ERA, 3.71 FIP |
| 2. R.A. Dickey: 20-6, 2.73 ERA, 3.27 FIP | 2. Jon Niese: 10-11, 3.98 ERA, 3.67 FIP |
| 3. Jon Niese: 13-9, 3.40 ERA, 3.80 FIP | 3. Shaun Marcum: 12-10, 3.63 ERA, 4.01 FIP |
| 4. Mike Pelfrey: 0-0, 2.29 ERA, 2.38 FIP | 4. Matt Harvey; 11-10, 3.70 ERA, 3.54 FIP |
| 5. Dillon Gee: 6-7, 4.10 ERA, 3.71 FIP | 5. Dillon Gee: 3-3, 4.09 ERA, 4.38 FIP |
Thoughts: The Mets go into 2013 without NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey, who was dealt to Toronto in the off-season. The Mets can only hope Santana returns to his 2012 pre-All-Star numbers when he won six games with a 3.24 ERA.
Miami Marlins
| 2012 Opening Day Rotation | 2013 Projected Rotation |
| 1. Josh Johnson: 8-14, 3.81 ERA, 3.40 FIP | 1. Ricky Nolasco: 9-12, 3.94 ERA, 3.71 FIP |
| 2. Mark Buehrle: 13-13, 3.74 ERA, 4.18 FIP | 2. Henderson Alvarez: 8-12, 4.40 ERA, 4.64 FIP |
| 3. Ricky Nolasco: 12-13, 4.48 ERA, 3.87 FIP | 3. Wade LeBlanc: 4-5, 3.75 ERA, 4.05 FIP |
| 4. Carlos Zambrano: 7-10, 4.49 ERA, 4.47 FIP | 4. Nathan Eovaldi: 10-10, 3.63 ERA, 3.69 FIP |
| 5. Anibal Sanchez: 9-13, 3.86 ERA, 3.53 FIP | 5. Jacob Turner: 8-9, 3.79 ERA, 4.16 FIP |
Thoughts: The Marlins rotation of 2013 will be without Johnson, Buehrle, Zambrano and Sanchez from last season. The depth in the rotation consists of Brad Hand, Tom Koehler and Alex Sanabia.
Stats and projections courtesy fangraphs
that Nats rotation is just filthy.
Re-dick
Why are you guys posting W/L records in these previews?
The author is free to quote whichever stats appeal to him/her.
Doesn’t really answer my question. I wasn’t implying the score is a nazi regime that sensors stats.
I would agree that predicting W/L records is a fool’s errand yet here we are.
Almost all of these projections so far seem ridiculously optimistic.
Overly optimistic, you mean like the phillies competing for the division?
Marlins can only hope turner, eovaldi, and alvarez continue to develop and become real good pitchers, they look to have a solid farm system and also hope those guys will develop.