Win Probability Added is a weird little stat. In some ways, it should really be more pervasive. It doesn’t ask how or deal in “theoretical constructs” like DIPS-based pitching models or the nebulous concept of replacement level. Win Probability Added: how much did you contribute to your team’s chances for winning. Period. The end.
The whole “probability” thing is the likely stumbling block. How can you measure contributions when you don’t know what is to come? The meticulous records maintained by the accountants of the game help put its rich, storied, turn-based history into context. The codified result might not be everyone’s cup of tea but the fact-based history is hard to shake.
Like many theories, the idea of win probability added breaks down under extreme conditions. Take Jose Bautista, for example. He had himself a game yesterday against the Rays, supplying nearly all the offense in a 4-3 extra inning win. He homered twice, including a game-tying shot in the ninth off formerly vaunted closer Fernando Rodney and then won the game with a single in the 10th. He had four hits today and also added a stolen base for good measure.
The Blue Jays won and, almost single-handedly, Jose Bautista was the reason.
Jays starter Mark Buehrle pitched really well and Jose needed to drive in some other runs as he only hit two home runs (not four), but the timing of his hits made it so Jose Bautista accomplished a very rare feat indeed: he contributed more than 100% to the Jays win. Those other bums were just holding him back!
This is only the elevth time this century (2013, totally not dramatic!) that a single player contributed more than his fair share. As the Play Index demonstrates in living color, Bautista’s game ranks sixth among millennial achievers…
|1||Brian Daubach||2000-08-21||BOS||ANA||W 7-6||5||1||3||0||0||1||4||0||0||0||0||1.253||3.479||2.796|
|2||Cody Ross||2008-06-07||FLA||CIN||W 8-7||5||1||2||0||0||1||3||1||0||1||0||1.139||2.630||1.697|
|3||Ryan Langerhans||2005-09-07||ATL||NYM||W 4-3||5||1||3||1||0||0||3||1||1||0||0||1.119||2.679||4.176|
|4||Brandon Inge||2003-08-24||DET||ANA||W 10-9||5||2||3||0||0||1||3||0||0||1||0||1.113||3.658||1.883|
|5||Josh Hamilton||2011-07-09||TEX||OAK||W 7-6||5||1||4||2||0||1||3||0||0||0||0||1.081||3.126||1.742|
|6||Jose Bautista||2013-05-22||TOR||TBR||W 4-3||5||2||4||0||0||2||4||1||0||1||0||1.053||4.054||2.182|
Not bad, not bad at all. For his efforts, Jose Bautista goosed his season wOBA up over .400 and made him the Jays team leader for WPA. It was also the higheset single-game WPA in Blue Jays history. Clutch hits man, they make the world go ’round.
And the rest
It’s good to be the
king feudal lord
This is how Marlins President David Samson spent part if his time while the Phillies blew out his team Tuesday. twitter.com/ArmandoSalguer…
— Armando Salguero (@ArmandoSalguero) May 23, 2013
OKAY ST. LOUIS, WE GET IT. YOU’RE DEEP AND OVERRUN WITH PITCHING DEPTH. STOP RUBBING IT IN [Cardinals.com]
Dallas Latos, not having your shit any more.
— Dallas Latos(@DallasLatos) May 22, 2013
Oh wait. That’s my shit. She’s not having my shit. Oh well.