URL Weaver: Have a Day, Jose

Tampa Bay Rays v Toronto Blue Jays

Win Probability Added is a weird little stat. In some ways, it should really be more pervasive. It doesn’t ask how or deal in “theoretical constructs” like DIPS-based pitching models or the nebulous concept of replacement level. Win Probability Added: how much did you contribute to your team’s chances for winning. Period. The end.

The whole “probability” thing is the likely stumbling block. How can you measure contributions when you don’t know what is to come? The meticulous records maintained by the accountants of the game help put its rich, storied, turn-based history into context. The codified result might not be everyone’s cup of tea but the fact-based history is hard to shake.

Like many theories, the idea of win probability added breaks down under extreme conditions. Take Jose Bautista, for example. He had himself a game yesterday against the Rays, supplying nearly all the offense in a 4-3 extra inning win. He homered twice, including a game-tying shot in the ninth off formerly vaunted closer Fernando Rodney and then won the game with a single in the 10th. He had four hits today and also added a stolen base for good measure.

The Blue Jays won and, almost single-handedly, Jose Bautista was the reason.

Jays starter Mark Buehrle pitched really well and Jose needed to drive in some other runs as he only hit two home runs (not four), but the timing of his hits made it so Jose Bautista accomplished a very rare feat indeed: he contributed more than 100% to the Jays win. Those other bums were just holding him back!

This is only the elevth time this century (2013, totally not dramatic!) that a single player contributed more than his fair share. As the Play Index demonstrates in living color, Bautista’s game ranks sixth among millennial achievers…

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS WPA RE24 aLI
1 Brian Daubach 2000-08-21 BOS ANA W 7-6 5 1 3 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 1.253 3.479 2.796
2 Cody Ross 2008-06-07 FLA CIN W 8-7 5 1 2 0 0 1 3 1 0 1 0 1.139 2.630 1.697
3 Ryan Langerhans 2005-09-07 ATL NYM W 4-3 5 1 3 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 1.119 2.679 4.176
4 Brandon Inge 2003-08-24 DET ANA W 10-9 5 2 3 0 0 1 3 0 0 1 0 1.113 3.658 1.883
5 Josh Hamilton 2011-07-09 TEX OAK W 7-6 5 1 4 2 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 1.081 3.126 1.742
6 Jose Bautista 2013-05-22 TOR TBR W 4-3 5 2 4 0 0 2 4 1 0 1 0 1.053 4.054 2.182
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/23/2013.

Not bad, not bad at all. For his efforts, Jose Bautista goosed his season wOBA up over .400 and made him the Jays team leader for WPA. It was also the higheset single-game WPA in Blue Jays history. Clutch hits man, they make the world go ’round.

And the rest

Madison Bumgarner and Bryce Harper, proud members of the mutual admiration society. [CSN Bay Area]

Evan Gattis, sort of the best. [AJC]

It’s good to be the king feudal lord

OKAY ST. LOUIS, WE GET IT. YOU’RE DEEP AND OVERRUN WITH PITCHING DEPTH. STOP RUBBING IT IN [Cardinals.com]

Vance Worley, demoted and all out of magic. [Fangraphs]

Rafael Soriano, dingus. [Brisbee Nation]

Dallas Latos, not having your shit any more.

Oh wait. That’s my shit. She’s not having my shit. Oh well.

Comments (16)

  1. Imagine the Cards combining their scouting ability with biomechanical research? Unstoppable much?

  2. Is your reporting sad Drew?
    Cheer up son!

  3. Whatever happened to Zuber’s game graphs at DJF?

    • I asked the same question a couple of days back and got no response. Zubes hasn’t posted anything in a while. I hope that doesn’t mean anything.

  4. From the ghosts of christmas past people, Brian Daubach…..wow, that`s a name that I haven`t seen in forever.

  5. While we’re talking freakish WPA…

    Going back a full 100 years, near as I can tell Mike Trout is the first player *ever* to hit for the cycle and post a *negative* WPA.

  6. Wait why was Dallas Latos calling you out? The tweets aren’t yours and she doesn’t seem to be directly replying to you.

  7. For WPA, would it be more accurate to say that Jose contributed 105.3 percentage points to the Jays win probability over the course of the game? I mean, it seems impossible to contribute more than 100% to a binary outcome.

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