Whether we like our players to stroke dongs or jack taters, we all know our fantasy-based desire for the stat borders on the lecherous. The problem with the home run is that it’s such an I/O situation: it’s either a home run or it’s not. And using stats like isolated slugging percentage to try and suss out changes in a player’s power profile can be confounded by the fact that any ball that lands in the park is then subject to the interaction between the fielder’s grace and the batter’s speed. Doubles don’t always turn into home runs. Sometimes doubles are actually stretched-out-singles or boffed grounders in the outfield.
Are there peripheral stats for batters that can help us predict power surges? Or at least some numbers that can help predict which power surges will stick?




