Archive for the ‘CC Sabathia’ Category

My Approach: Jose Bautista

Posted by Drew Fairservice under CC Sabathia, Jose Bautista, My Approach, Toronto Blue Jays on May 10, 2013

Toronto Blue Jays v New York Yankees

The latest edition of My Approach gets into the head of one of the most patient and prolific sluggers in the game, Jose Bautista.

As he did last season, Jose is off to a bit of a slow start in 2013. While he isn’t putting up the batting average he’d like, Jose remains a very productive hitter, still walking at an elite rate and hitting for power like very few batters can. His walk rate is fifth-best in the American League and his seven home runs place him among the league leaders.

During the Jays most recent home stand, Jose spoke to Getting Blanked about many aspects of preparation and research, where Bautista quotes numbers and describes, in as many words, the game theory of hitting in the big leagues. Plus a whole lot on his preparation against his nemesis, CC Sabathia.

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Roto-Relevant Research: April Velocity Decliners

Posted by Eno Sarris under CC Sabathia, David Price, Joe Blanton, Roto Relevant Research on May 02, 2013

Boston Red Sox v Tampa Bay Rays

April is cold. We have rainouts and snowouts to prove it. Velocity and temperature are related. We have Mike Fast pointing to August as the velocity peak to prove it.

That said, April velocity loss is interesting to us. Velocity stabilizes very quickly, and the difference between April and August is on the order of a half mile per hour — some hurlers have lost more than that delta and aren’t getting it all back.

And now Bill Petti is adding two asterisks to April velocity loss that makes it even worse. Here they are:

Pitchers who are down at least 1 mph compared to April of the previous year will go on to finish the season down at least 1 mph about 38% of the time.

Pitchers that were down at least 1 mph in April had an arm injury rate of 11%. Compared to 4% for non-velocity decliners, that’s an increased likelihood of 2.6.

So, to recap: pitchers with April velocity loss are very likely to continue showing velocity that’s lower than they showed the year before, slightly likely to have the same or worse velocity loss all year, and slightly more likely to get injured. All of this sounds very relevant to fantasy owners.

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Roto-Relevant Research: Pitcher Injuries

Posted by Eno Sarris under CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Roto Relevant Research on Feb 21, 2013

Division Series - Baltimore Orioles v New York Yankees - Game Five

Pitchers are a necessary evil to most fantasy players. They get hurt more often than hitters, and they stay hurt longer. While it’s extremely rare to lose a hitter for the entire season, it happens all the time with pitchers. But we need them, so here we are.

The holy grail for fantasy, then, is being able to predict pitcher injury. Well, that factors in pretty well with the real-world success of the White Sox for example, but this is a Roto column, so there.

Tom Verducci had a theory — pitchers with big jumps in innings from year to year were more susceptible to injury. Turns out it’s not really true. Jeff Zimmerman and I showed a case for sliders and curveballs adding to injury risk, but the added risk is a) not true for everyone and b) incremental. Zimmerman found a similar effect for wild pitchers after Billy Beane mentioned it. These things all have a little bit of truth to them, but they aren’t enough of a rack to hang the hat of our fantasy hopes upon.

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Aces in the Hole

Posted by Drew Fairservice under CC Sabathia, No. You're A Slow News Day on Oct 19, 2012

Though he didn’t look like it last night, CC Sabathia is an ace. He’s a stud and a true #1 starter. There are very few of them in this world and, like pornography, you know one when you see one.

The idea of an “ace” is constantly kicked around by all fans: the most “casual” types wondering if their team’s Opening Day starter qualifies as a legitimate ace or the prospect types projecting and/or wishcasting on a low-A fireballer.

Who are the real aces in baseball right now? Recently Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus tweeted that you can name all the aces in baseball right now on two hands. Is it true? Below, a list of one man’s humble opinions in no particular order.

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Jack Morris’ Lack of Perspective Brought to You By Jack Morris

Posted by Drew Fairservice under CC Sabathia, Detroit Tigers on Oct 17, 2012

There is no need to sully the good name of Jack Morris on these digital pages again. If you aren’t already familiar with the official company line on the former Tigers, Blue Jays, and Twins starter, you can probably just assume and end up reasonably close.

When Jack Morris decides to sound off about the Stephen Strasburg Shutdown, there is no need to bring his resume into the discussion. His words do all the heavy lifting required to discredit his unique view.

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Roto-Relevant Research: Fastballs

Posted by Eno Sarris under CC Sabathia, Greg Maddux, Roto Relevant Research on Sep 13, 2012

The reason I think I’m a good pitcher is I locate my fastball and I change speeds. Period. That’s what you do to pitch. Greg Maddux

Any time you talk about the importance of fastball velocity, the name Greg Maddux eventually comes up. Yes, there was this pitcher once that was dominant without lighting up the guns. He even had a teammate that is headed to the hall without four-seam gas. But just because Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux exist doesn’t mean you don’t want to start with velocity and then move on to the rest of the package. After all, we’ve linked many times to Mike Fast’s research that showed that four more miles in fastball velocity means allowing one less run per nine innings.

But Greg Maddux does mean something. He means that location and movement are still part of the parcel that makes the most common pitch in baseball effective. Can we figure out the hierarchy beyond velocity?

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URL Weaver: The Pitching Wins And Losses Edition

Posted by Dustin Parkes under CC Sabathia, Cy Young, Link Dump on Aug 07, 2012

It’s become customary for serious baseball fans to roll their eyes at the notion that pitching wins should count for anything. However, at the end of every year, once the baseball season is finished, and awards begin getting handed out for accomplishments made over the previous six months, a debate erupts over the merits of such things as a pitcher winning twenty games.

When it comes to Cy Young Award voting, which is done by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (abbreviated BBWAA, without irony), the last few years have seen something of a transformation. Pitchers without high win totals are being considered like they have never been considered before. The best example of this is in 2010, when Felix Hernandez, with a record of 13-12, while pitching for the lowly Seattle Mariners, was voted to be the best pitcher in the American League. This, despite C.C. Sabathia, not an unworthy candidate by any means, finishing the year with a 21-7 record for the New York Yankees.

This season, the debate is appearing to take shape once again, and the main focal points of the likely argument both pitches yesterday, and both pitched quite well.

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