
The Detroit Tigers were the pre-season favorites to win the 2012 American League Central even before they signed Prince Fielder to replace the super-valuable Victor Martinez. At that point, pretty much everyone decided (understandably) that they were going to run away with it. If any team had a chance, it was maybe Cleveland, a flawed-but-interesting team. The Twins were almost universally expected to be dreadful, while the young hitting talent of the Royals held promise.
The one team that seemed uninteresting for once was the White Sox. They were not expected to finish last, and maybe they were thought to have a shot at second (without making the playoffs) if Cleveland stumbled, but they clearly seemed to be in a strange transitional mode. They had a new manager, Robin Ventura, who had not managed or coached on any level of professional baseball since his retirement as a player. They were not clearly rebuildling, and had a terrible farm system. They seemed stuck with “busted” and expensive veteran acquisitions from the past few “win-now” seasons such as Alex Rios, Adam Dunn, and Jake Peavy. Paul Konerko was still a good hitter, but was he really going to carry the team at his age? Was his sidekick going to be A.J. Pierzynski?
You know the rest of the story: with less than 50 games to play, the White Sox are winning the Central and have a two game lead over the Tigers. There is still plenty of time left in the season to blow the lead. Still, as of this writing, Baseball Prospectus puts the White Sox’ playoff odds at about 88 percent, with a 64 percent chance of winning the division. This despite not really making any “big moves” to obviously improve the disappointing 2011 team. Are they just getting lucky?
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